Miercoles 25/01/12 La decision del Fed, AAPL espectacular

[admin]

+43

BVN +5%

[admin]

Au up 1,702.30

[Arnold]

Desempleo en Francia creció 5,6% en 2011 y se acerca a 3 millones de parados
25 de Enero de 2012

El desempleo en Francia explotó en 2011, alcanzando los 2,87 millones de solicitantes de empleo en diciembre, es decir, 152.000 personas más que en el mismo mes de 2010 (+5,6%), según las cifras del ministerio de Trabajo francés publicadas este miércoles.

Entre noviembre y diciembre de 2011, el desempleo aumentó un 1% (+29.700 personas).

Si se tienen en cuenta a todas aquellas personas que no disfrutan de una actividad laboral completa, la cifra de solicitantes de empleo es de 4,27 millones.
El desempleo entre los mayores de 50 años creció un 16% en el último año y entre las mujeres la subida fue del 7,5% (1,39 millones).

La degradación del mercado laboral en Francia se visualiza también en las cifras del desempleo de larga duración: 1,61 millones de solicitantes de empleo estaban inscritos desde hace más de un año (+6,2% con respecto a un año antes) y 424.800 personas están inscritas desde hace más de tres años (+22,5%).

[admin]

2:03 p.m. EST 01/25/12Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note   2/32 0.230
10-Year Note   28/32 1.966
* at close
2:08 p.m. EST 01/25/12Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 99.46 0.51 98.95
Gold 1696.2 31.7 1664.5
E-mini Dow 12657 31 12626
E-mini S&P 500 1316.75 5.25 1311.50
2:18 p.m. EST 01/25/12Currencies
  Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 77.89 77.67
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3054 1.3037
† Late Tuesday in New York.

[admin]

  Last Change % Chg
DJIA 12711.89 36.14 0.29
Nasdaq 2813.11 26.47 0.95
S&P 500 1320.78 6.13 0.47
DJ Total Stock Market 13840.85 72.65 0.53
Russell 2000 795.17 6.90 0.88
Global Dow 1915.71 8.91 0.47
Japan: Nikkei Average* 8883.69 98.36 1.12
Stoxx Europe 600* 254.95 -1.09 -0.43
UK: FTSE 100* 5723.00 -28.90 -0.50
Get this by E-mail * at close

[admin]

Bernanke dando su discurso.

[Victor VE]

Iendole con todo al Barcelona el dia de hoy, espero que le gane al Real Madrid.

[admin]

ECONOMYJANUARY 25, 2012, 2:10 P.M. ET
Fed Expects Low Rates Through 2014

By LUCA DI LEO Andy JON HILSENRATH
Federal Reserve officials Wednesday said they expect short-term interest rates to stay close to zero "at least through late 2014," even longer than previously indicated, as they signaled dissatisfaction with the recovery and growing confidence that inflation was slowing

Parsing the Fed: How Statement Changed
Read the full statement
How the Fed Makes a Forecast
What to Expect From the Fed
The Fed's latest pronouncement, released at the end of a two day meeting, means the central doesn't think it will have to move for nearly three years, roughly a year and a half longer than indicated last August.

Fed officials believe that signaling rates will stay low for a long time will push down not only short-term interest rates but also long-term rates, thus spurring investment, spending and growth. Low rates, in turn, could also help stock prices. U.S. stocks erased most of their morning losses after the statement was released.

As part of its new strategy to be more open with the public, the Fed detailed that nine out of the 17 officials taking part in its policy-making committee expect rates to stay at or below 0.75% until the end of 2014. The federal funds rate has been trading in a range between zero and 0.25% since Dec. 2008.

The rate projections highlighted how much views differ within the central bank. While nine officials see the first rate increase taking place in 2014 or 2015, there are six who believe it will come in 2012 or 2013. In the end, it's the largest number that counts, because it tends to be where officials coalesce around Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Fed officials were a bit more pessimistic about economic growth in the years ahead compared to projections made in November, though they were marginally more upbeat on the jobs front. Gross domestic product is seen expanding between 2.2% and 2.7% this year, compared to a previous forecast of 2.5%-2.9%.

The jobless rate is expected to edge down to between 8.2% and 8.5% at the end of this year. While slightly better than the previous forecast, the unemployment rate remains high.

In their statement, Fed officials warned that the recovery remains too slow and is marked by significant risks.

"While indicators point to some further improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated," officials said. "Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook." The Fed also pointed to slowing business investment as something it is watching carefully.

The jobless rate edged down to 8.5% in December, the lowest level in almost three years, and the number of people filing for unemployment benefits has declined sharply recently. However, unemployment still remains high, holding back consumer spending and the broader economy.

Fed officials are concerned the economy could be hit by higher taxes and continued government layoffs next year, as well as repercussions from Europe's debt crisis. With inflation expected to come down in 2012, most don't see the need to raise rates until late 2014.

Officials signaled that they believed their forecast for low inflation was proving accurate, noting that, "inflation has been subdued in recent months, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable."

Fed officials forecast inflation would remain below 2% through 2014 -- and made it clear that 2.0% is the rate it's targeting in the long run. While declining to provide an equally precise goal for unemployment, which the Fed has less power over, it pointed to its most recent longer-run forecast of between 5.2% and 6.0%.

With the projections of rates remaining low for so long, debate inside the Fed could soon turn to whether the central bank should do even more to spur growth and bring down unemployment faster. Fed officials have been considering whether to restart a bond-buying program. They've held off as they assess whether inflation is slowing as expected and to get a better read on the growth outlook.

One official -- Jeffrey Lacker from Richmond -- voted against the action Wednesday. He didn't want to indicate a time period for how long rates could stay at a record low, according to the statement. Other officials who don't vote might also resist additional steps.


Given that the Fed has stated they won't raise rates through mid-2013, how much of a difference do individual projections makes? Jon Hilsenrath discusses on Markets Hub. (Photo: Getty Images)

When they surprised markets in August by announcing that rates would likely stay near zero until mid-2013, Fed officials reaped immediate benefits. Stock and bond markets rallied, rejoicing at the prospect of cheap money for at least another two years. This time, the rewards may not be as easy.

Several market indicators already suggested investors believed the Fed would stretch their ultra-low rate forecast into 2014.

One challenge for the Fed is convincing people that even it can accurately predict where rates will be in three years. Circumstances might change which force it to change its own forecast. For instance, inflation could take off and force the Fed to push rates up to stop it. Another wrinkle: Mr. Bernanke is in his second four-year term at the Fed. It ends at the start of 2014, so he won't be on hand to guide rates through the central bank's forecast period.

Some Fed officials would be prepared to do more to spur growth, such as buying more bonds to put further downward pressure on long-term rates. But, with the outlook so uncertain, most officials prefer to wait and see if the economy fails to improve, or if inflation falls much below their goal of around 2%.

The roster of Fed officials voting on policy in 2012 could make it easier for Mr. Bernanke to push for more action if he feels it's necessary. Fed governors vote at every meeting, as does the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Among the presidents of the 11 other regional Fed banks, four vote per meeting on a rotating basis.

Three out of the four officials who get a vote this year seem open to action: San Francisco Fed President John Williams, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto.

[admin]

SPANISHJANUARY 25, 2012, 2:07 P.M. ET
La Fed espera mantener las tasas cerca a cero hasta 2014

Por LUCA DI LEO

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Los funcionarios de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos señalaron el miércoles que esperan que las tasas de interés a corto plazo se mantengan cerca de cero "al menos hasta fines de 2014", incluso más allá que lo indicado previamente, decisión que podría ayudar a la lenta recuperación de la economía del país.

Antes del despliegue de su nueva estrategia comunicacional, los funcionarios estimaron que las tasas podrían mantenerse en un mínimo récord por otros tres años, al tiempo que el desempleo declina lentamente y la inflación se modera. Desde agosto, la Fed había señalado que su tasa interbancaria se mantendría cerca de cero "al menos hasta mediados de 2013".

El banco central entregará a las 2:00 pm más detalles sobre el nivel en que los 17 funcionarios del comité de tasas de la Fed prevén se ubicarán las tasas en los próximos años, como parte de una estrategia para mejorar las comunicaciones del organismo. Posteriormente en una conferencia de prensa, el presidente de la Fed, Ben Bernanke, podría dar a conocer mayores directrices sobre los pasos del banco central.

En el comunicado emitido tras una reunión de dos días, los funcionarios de la Fed destacaron algunas leves mejoras en la economía y los empleos, pero advirtieron que la recuperación sigue siendo demasiado lenta y está marcada por riesgos significativos.

"Si bien los indicadores apuntan a cierta mejoría en las condiciones generales del mercado laboral, la tasa de desempleo sigue elevada", dijeron los funcionarios. "Las tensiones en los mercados financieros mundiales siguen representando riesgos bajistas significativos para el panorama económico".

La tasa de desempleo declinó al 8,5% en diciembre, el menor nivel en al menos tres años, y el número de personas que solicitan beneficios por el seguro de desempleo ha bajado abruptamente en el último tiempo. Sin embargo, el desempleo sigue alto, lo que frena el gasto de los consumidores y a la economía en general.

Diversos indicadores del mercado ya sugieren que los inversionistas creen que la Fed extenderá su proyección de tasas de interés ultra bajas hasta 2014. En el mercado de futuros sobre la tasa interbancaria federal, donde los inversionistas estiman el nivel de las tasas en los próximos años, los precios apuntan a que no habrá cambios hasta al menos mediados de 2014.

[admin]

3:06 p.m. EST 01/25/12Major Stock Indexes
  Last Change % Chg
DJIA 12726.45 50.70 0.40
Nasdaq 2811.61 24.97 0.90
S&P 500 1322.01 7.36 0.56
DJ Total Stock Market 13850.78 82.58 0.60
Russell 2000 793.25 4.98 0.63
Global Dow 1917.36 10.56 0.55

[admin]

2:49 p.m. EST 01/25/12Treasurys
    Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note   2/32 0.234
10-Year Note   18/32 2.002
* at close
2:56 p.m. EST 01/25/12Futures
  Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 99.74 0.79 98.95
Gold 1707.0 42.5 1664.5
E-mini Dow 12684 58 12626
E-mini S&P 500 1319.50 8.00 1311.50
3:05 p.m. EST 01/25/12Currencies
  Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 77.81 77.67
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.3075 1.3037
† Late Tuesday in New York.

[jonibol]

Humala promoviendo el Perú ante inversionistas internacionales.

[Victor VE]

Humala promoviendo el Perú ante inversionistas internacionales.

Ahora que se esta limpiando de toda esa escoria roja radical en su partido, es lo mejor que puede hacer por el momento.

[admin]

  Last Change % Chg
DJIA 12747.34 71.59 0.56
Nasdaq 2814.84 28.20 1.01
S&P 500 1324.03 9.38 0.71

[admin]

Fed Officials Detail Rate Projections

By Luca Di Leo and Eric Morath

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday, in its first release of interest-rate projections by Fed officials, suggested interest rates could stay near zero for longer than previously indicated, a move that could aid the U.S. economy’s slow path to recovery.

Fed officials’ rate forecasts, released as part of the agency’s communications initiative, indicated that most Fed officials expect short-term rates to remain at a record low until 2014. Since August, the Fed had been saying that its benchmark lending rate would remain close to zero “at least through mid-2013.” (See the Fed’s projections here.)

The central bank said 11 of the 17 officials taking part in its policy-making committee expect the first rate increase to take place in 2014 or later. Nine see the fed-funds rate, which has been trading in a range between zero and 0.25% since December 2008, to stay at or below 0.75% until the end of 2014.

The rate projections highlightedo how much views differ within the central bank. Six officials believe the first rate increase could come in 2012 or 2013, while five see the increase coming in 2014. Another six forecast it is more likely to be in 2015 or 2016.

The Fed officials are fairly divided on where they see rates at the end of 2014, as six see rates at 1.5% or higher and another six see rates remaining at the current low levels.

The majority of Fed officials’ individual projections see rates remaining at low levels through 2014, in line with the central bank’s statement earlier Wednesday that rates will stay at “exceptionally low levels…at least through late 2014.”

In the longer run, most Fed officials see rates between 4% and 4.25%. Also known as the neutral level, this is an abstract rate at which the supply of money and interest rates controlled by the central bank neither spur nor hinder economic growth and inflation.

All Fed officials see rates between 3.75% and 4.50% in the longer run.

The Fed also released a statement on its longer-run goals Wednesday, saying its aim for inflation is 2%. The central bank, however, said it wouldn’t specify a fixed goal for employment.

Inflation at the rate of 2%, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, “is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate,” the central bank said.

The Fed said it “would not be appropriate to specify a fixed goal for employment.” Rather, the Fed said its decisions will be informed by its view of the maximum level of employment, which can change over time.

The inflation and employment goals are generally complementary, the Fed said. However, under circumstances in which the objectives aren’t complementary, the Fed will follow “a balanced approach in promoting them.”