Martes 06/03/12 Super Tuesday, elecciones republicanas

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Corrigiendo errores? Se habia subido demasiado?

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Eruo down 1.3124

El euro en el suelo, donde debe estar, eso le conviene a las exportaciones de Europa.

Aelmania -2.14%

Caida fuerte en Europa.

Oil down 105.22 y todavia esta caro.

Hoy la gasolina cayo pro primera vez.

Yen up 80.94

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La politica economica de este gobierno esta perjudicando a la economia.

Se espera que la economica crezca solamente 1.8% en el primer trimestre, 2.3% en el segundo.

Y eso que el invierno moderado tenia que haber ayudado a la economia, no fue asi.

Los intereses tan bajos le han quitado poder adquisitivo a lso ahorristas.

Economic policy is hurting the economy
Commentary: Washington is making crucial mistakes
By Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) — Monetary and fiscal policies are not as stimulative as they appear. Indeed, by some measures, they are actually slowing the pace of economic growth, rather than boosting it.

Once again, the fledgling recovery appears to be hitting headwinds. Even though the pace of economic growth in the fourth quarter was just revised upward to a robust 3%, expectations for the current quarter and the next have been scaled back.

Forecasters surveyed regularly by MarketWatch now think that growth in the current quarter will amount to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of only 1.8%. They look for the second quarter’s growth rate to increase only slightly, to 2.3% ( see our Economic Calendar ).

Kellner's ForecastsSee economic calendardate report forecast previous
March 7 Productivity 0.7% 0.7%
March 7 Unit labor costs 1.2% 1.2%
March 8 Jobless claims 345,000 351,000
March 9 Nonfarm payrolls 215,000 243,000
March 9 Unemployment rate 8.4% 8.3%
March 9 Average hourly earnings 0.3% 0.2%
March 9 Trade deficit -$49.0 bln -$48.8 bln
/conga/story/misc/kellners-forecast.html 195971 Not long ago this group’s expectations for 2012’s first half was considerably higher. What is more, the mild winter in most parts of the nation was expected to give a lift to such important components of our gross domestic product as consumer spending and construction, but it apparently didn’t.

Some of these headwinds are not in policy makers’ control. These include the ongoing crisis in the euro zone, the simmering cauldron known as the Middle East, and that perennial problem, housing.

However, two important factors behind this year’s headwinds are certainly within policy makers’ domain. I am referring, of course, to monetary and fiscal policies.

At first glance, monetary policy appears to be anything but restrictive. According to calculations made available by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the money supply has expanded at a 10% compound annual rate over the past year.

Even faster growth seems ahead. The Bank’s estimate of the Fed’s adjusted monetary base has grown by more than 23% over the past year, while its computation of adjusted reserves is up a whopping 34%.

But there is another side to this coin and it is interest rates. As any saver will tell you, they are at rock bottom (or, for all intents and purposes, nonexistent). This is depriving savers of buying power while not helping borrowers all that much, since (a) their savings are too low, (b) their debts are too high and (c) the banks aren’t lending, anyway.

At the same time, the excess liquidity that is sloshing around the economy is fueling inflation and the expectation of inflation. Prices of such necessities as food, energy and health care are jumping, as is the cost of most services.

These developments have not escaped the bond markets. The St. Louis Fed says that the spread between plain vanilla five-year Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) has risen to a nine-month high.

As for fiscal policy, it is not helping much either — in spite of the record deficits logged in by the federal government. For one thing, there have been few shovel-ready projects leading to the fact that money emanating from Washington was either not well spent or not spent at all.

And while the New York Times recently asserted that “plausible options were few” (see column by Eduardo Porter, Feb, 29, page B1), MarketWatch readers know there was at least one: my gift card idea, which would have injected over $700 billion into the economy almost immediately by sending everyone over the age of 16 a card loaded with $3,000 that had to be spent within three months.

At any rate, fiscal stimulus today is taking a back seat to deficits and debt reduction. By cutting federal aid to states and local governments, Washington is forcing them to lay off public-sector employees while reducing services.

A far as the pols on the Potomac are concerned, stimulus is out, austerity is in, just like in Europe, which, by the way, has just lapsed into another recession.
Irwin Kellner is MarketWatch's chief economist.

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China es el desarrollador mas grande de aplicaciones para Facebook.

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Hoy dia hay elecciones primarias para los candidatos republicanos, 437 delegados estan en juego.

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Durante todo su gobierno Obama le tiro caca a Israel, ayer les dijo que los queria, que los adoraba que Israel y US son unia y cochinada y que los intereses de los dos paises son uno solo, etc, etc. daba nauseas escucharlo, a cuantos judios convencio lo veremos en Noviembre.

Tradicionalmente los judios en US votan por los democratas, pero Obama ha perdido apoyo en ese grupo al igual que entre los hispanos e independientes que mayoritariamente votaron por el hace cuatro anios.

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Los futures estan indicando indiscutiblemente que si, a US tambien le importa lo que esta pasando en Grecia y Europa. No hay indicadores economicos hoy dia en US para salvar el dia.

Todo va a depender de los que han estado esperando oportunidades de compra para entrar. Lo veremos al cierre.

AAPl esta con rebaja asi como todas las demas, especialmente las de materiales y todas las ligadas al crecimiento de la economia.

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Acelerando la caida.

Oil down 105.22

Au down 1,669.80

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-150

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Oil down 104.91

Au down 1,672

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-145.76

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VIX up 20.56

Arriba de 20

-150.15

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El VIX sube 15%

-150.63

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El oro cae 2%

Futures cu down 3.75

Euro down 1.3122