Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansion
Re: Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansi
por Arnold » Dom May 13, 2012 9:29 pm
Estimada Admin, espero hayas pasado un excelente día de la madre. Un abrazo
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Re: Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansi
por admin » Dom May 13, 2012 9:33 pm
En lo que respecta a China los bears estan ganando.
El crecimient en todo, desde ventas retail, inversion, produccion industrial e importaciones han bajado en Abril, senialando una desaceleracion economica.
El recorte en 50 puntos basicos en los requerimientos de reserva de la banca seniala que las autoridades reconocen el problema. Pero ellos haran mas? por la mayor parte de este anio, los comentarios de los analistas que estan vendiendo China es que cuanto peor se ponga, mas grande sera el estimulo, pero todavia siguen esperando.
China’s economy has yet to bottom
By Craig Stephen
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China bears have the upper hand after growth in everything from retail spending and investment to industrial output and imports declined in April, pointing to a widening economic slowdown.
The move at the weekend to cut the amount of money Chinese banks must hold with the central bank by 50 basis points signals authorities recognize the problem. But will they do more? For much of this year, the commentary from many sell-side analysts was that the worse it gets, the bigger the likely stimulus — but we are still waiting.
As analysts reviewed last week’s data, they were cutting forecasts and questioning the lack of policy action by Beijing. SG Research said in a new note that not only did infrastructure investment fail to pick-up in April, but railway fixed-asset investment contracted 48% year-on-year, while fiscal spending growth was just in single digits.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote simply that they were wrong in expecting a pick-up in Chinese growth in the second quarter and have cut full year gross domestic product growth forecasts from 8.6% to 8.0%.
This was echoed by Capital Economics, which wrote that the release of April’s data drives several nails into hopes that China’s economy may have bottomed.
Click to Play What is China blogging about? Tensions between China and the Philippines are rising over a contested island in the South China Sea, as an executive announces the firing of his Filipino maid online and web users talk about boycotting the Philippines.
SG Research highlighted both a slowdown in property investment and electricity consumption, with the latter indicating a broad-based deceleration in economic activity. Not only did the growth rate in total property investment more than halve to 9% year-on-year in April, but there are also now signs the property slowdown is spreading to consumption as well. Household appliances recorded the lowest growth rate among major retail categories.
Power-production growth — a figure frequently used as a proxy for the health of the wider economy — had almost stalled, growing just 0.7% in April. In SG’s opinion, this latest batch of data activity “scream out for easing.”
Easing did come in terms of a cut to banks’ reserve ratio requirements, the third in the past six months, which means that large banks will now be required to hold reserves equal to 20% of deposits instead of 20.5%. But how effective this will be remains in doubt.
The hope is that this will get banks lending again after an unexpected drop in April loans. New loans were just 681.8 billion yuan, ($108 billion), well below market forecasts of 800 billion yuan and less than the one trillion yuan new-loans figure of March.
One hurdle to expanding lending is that China may now be facing a ‘demand deficit’ due to a dearth of profitable investment opportunities as the economy and property market slows. This was highlighted in a recent column , where the fall in long-term loans in March data suggested underlying lending growth was weak.
If this is the case, authorities need to do more than just make extra money available. The traditional response would be to cut the price of money or for the government to apply fiscal stimulus.
But stubborn inflationary pressures mean there has been a reluctance to cut interest rates, although at least April data showed inflation easing to 3.4% in April, after having risen to 3.6% in March, suggesting more scope for easing.
One explanation for the lack of more concerted efforts to stimulate the economy is that party leaders are distracted by succession planning. There remains considerable uncertainty over the once-in-a-decade leadership change scheduled for this autumn, following the fallout from the scandal surrounding deposed leader Bo Xilai.
In fact, Reuters reported last week that the appointment of the elite nine-member Politburo Standing Committee that heads the Chinese government may be postponed until early next year, according to a source. ( Read more on reported delay. )
If this is true, it suggests resolution of factional disputes within the Chinese Communist Party could continue to drag, potentially leaving a political vacuum. As it stands, only president-in-waiting Xi Jinping and his apparent premier, Li Keqiang, are reportedly guaranteed a spot on the new committee.
The economy could feel the brunt of such a delay. It has been suggested before that current property curbs designed to slow the market will not be removed until the new government is in place, and the same goes for Beijing coming up with a substantial stimulus effort.
Meanwhile, another wild card to distract Chinese leaders is the possible collapse of the euro and what this would mean for the competitive position of China, which ships approximately 20% of its exports to the euro zone.
CLSA in a new strategy note said a euro collapse is looking increasingly likely. Perhaps then, Beijing’s caution is warranted, as it is just keeping its powder in reserve for when it really needs it.
Elsewhere, if you look at the Australian dollar /quotes/zigman/4867876/sampled AUDUSD -0.11% , widely seen as a currency proxy for China’s growth, it is telling us to expect a slowdown. The Australian unit has fallen back to near parity with the U.S. dollar after hitting highs near $1.08 in February.
/quotes/zigman/4867876/sampled Add to portfolio AUDUSD USD/AUD US : ICAP Currencies 1.0004 -0.0011 -0.1059% Volume: 0.0000May 13, 2012 10:29p
El crecimient en todo, desde ventas retail, inversion, produccion industrial e importaciones han bajado en Abril, senialando una desaceleracion economica.
El recorte en 50 puntos basicos en los requerimientos de reserva de la banca seniala que las autoridades reconocen el problema. Pero ellos haran mas? por la mayor parte de este anio, los comentarios de los analistas que estan vendiendo China es que cuanto peor se ponga, mas grande sera el estimulo, pero todavia siguen esperando.
China’s economy has yet to bottom
By Craig Stephen
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — China bears have the upper hand after growth in everything from retail spending and investment to industrial output and imports declined in April, pointing to a widening economic slowdown.
The move at the weekend to cut the amount of money Chinese banks must hold with the central bank by 50 basis points signals authorities recognize the problem. But will they do more? For much of this year, the commentary from many sell-side analysts was that the worse it gets, the bigger the likely stimulus — but we are still waiting.
As analysts reviewed last week’s data, they were cutting forecasts and questioning the lack of policy action by Beijing. SG Research said in a new note that not only did infrastructure investment fail to pick-up in April, but railway fixed-asset investment contracted 48% year-on-year, while fiscal spending growth was just in single digits.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote simply that they were wrong in expecting a pick-up in Chinese growth in the second quarter and have cut full year gross domestic product growth forecasts from 8.6% to 8.0%.
This was echoed by Capital Economics, which wrote that the release of April’s data drives several nails into hopes that China’s economy may have bottomed.
Click to Play What is China blogging about? Tensions between China and the Philippines are rising over a contested island in the South China Sea, as an executive announces the firing of his Filipino maid online and web users talk about boycotting the Philippines.
SG Research highlighted both a slowdown in property investment and electricity consumption, with the latter indicating a broad-based deceleration in economic activity. Not only did the growth rate in total property investment more than halve to 9% year-on-year in April, but there are also now signs the property slowdown is spreading to consumption as well. Household appliances recorded the lowest growth rate among major retail categories.
Power-production growth — a figure frequently used as a proxy for the health of the wider economy — had almost stalled, growing just 0.7% in April. In SG’s opinion, this latest batch of data activity “scream out for easing.”
Easing did come in terms of a cut to banks’ reserve ratio requirements, the third in the past six months, which means that large banks will now be required to hold reserves equal to 20% of deposits instead of 20.5%. But how effective this will be remains in doubt.
The hope is that this will get banks lending again after an unexpected drop in April loans. New loans were just 681.8 billion yuan, ($108 billion), well below market forecasts of 800 billion yuan and less than the one trillion yuan new-loans figure of March.
One hurdle to expanding lending is that China may now be facing a ‘demand deficit’ due to a dearth of profitable investment opportunities as the economy and property market slows. This was highlighted in a recent column , where the fall in long-term loans in March data suggested underlying lending growth was weak.
If this is the case, authorities need to do more than just make extra money available. The traditional response would be to cut the price of money or for the government to apply fiscal stimulus.
But stubborn inflationary pressures mean there has been a reluctance to cut interest rates, although at least April data showed inflation easing to 3.4% in April, after having risen to 3.6% in March, suggesting more scope for easing.
One explanation for the lack of more concerted efforts to stimulate the economy is that party leaders are distracted by succession planning. There remains considerable uncertainty over the once-in-a-decade leadership change scheduled for this autumn, following the fallout from the scandal surrounding deposed leader Bo Xilai.
In fact, Reuters reported last week that the appointment of the elite nine-member Politburo Standing Committee that heads the Chinese government may be postponed until early next year, according to a source. ( Read more on reported delay. )
If this is true, it suggests resolution of factional disputes within the Chinese Communist Party could continue to drag, potentially leaving a political vacuum. As it stands, only president-in-waiting Xi Jinping and his apparent premier, Li Keqiang, are reportedly guaranteed a spot on the new committee.
The economy could feel the brunt of such a delay. It has been suggested before that current property curbs designed to slow the market will not be removed until the new government is in place, and the same goes for Beijing coming up with a substantial stimulus effort.
Meanwhile, another wild card to distract Chinese leaders is the possible collapse of the euro and what this would mean for the competitive position of China, which ships approximately 20% of its exports to the euro zone.
CLSA in a new strategy note said a euro collapse is looking increasingly likely. Perhaps then, Beijing’s caution is warranted, as it is just keeping its powder in reserve for when it really needs it.
Elsewhere, if you look at the Australian dollar /quotes/zigman/4867876/sampled AUDUSD -0.11% , widely seen as a currency proxy for China’s growth, it is telling us to expect a slowdown. The Australian unit has fallen back to near parity with the U.S. dollar after hitting highs near $1.08 in February.
/quotes/zigman/4867876/sampled Add to portfolio AUDUSD USD/AUD US : ICAP Currencies 1.0004 -0.0011 -0.1059% Volume: 0.0000May 13, 2012 10:29p
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Re: Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansi
por admin » Dom May 13, 2012 9:35 pm
Arnold escribió:Estimada Admin, espero hayas pasado un excelente día de la madre. Un abrazo
Gracias Arnol, la he pasado divino.
doy gracias a Dios todos los dias por todas las bendiciones, realmente estoy muy satisfecha con todo. Saludos a todos.- admin
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Re: Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansi
por admin » Dom May 13, 2012 9:36 pm
20% de las exportaciones Chinas van para Europa. Es un problema para ellos tambien.
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Re: Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansi
por admin » Dom May 13, 2012 9:46 pm
PPK en contra del incremento del Impuesto a la Renta
13 de mayo de 2012 | 09:38 a.m.Clorinda Flores - web@grupoepensa.peLima - Para el exministro de Economía y Finanzas (MEF) Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) es contraproducente aumentar el Impuesto a la Renta (IR) al trabajo porque por pretender recaudar más no solo reduciría la posibilidad de crear nuevos empleos, sino también se arriesga recaudar menos ingresos para el Estado.
Por el contrario, dijo que se debe reducir ese impuesto. "Si queremos crear más empleos y obtener mayores ingresos fiscales, debemos formalizar la economía. Es necesario reducirlos progresivamente y dar facilidades para que la gran masa trabajadora se incorpore a una planilla formal y alcance beneficios laborales de salud y previsión para evitar que en 20 años haya una generación sin ningún tipo de pensión", agregó.
ESTANCADA. PPK recordó que el Perú está estancado desde hace 9 años en su nivel de recaudación tributaria, que va de 15% a 16% del producto bruto interno (PBI), no obstante de que la economía peruana se ha duplicado. "Tenemos que formalizarnos. Aquí en el Perú debemos bajar el IGV y el Impuesto a la Renta, pero al mismo tiempo tener un programa para incorporar a las pequeñas empresas al sistema tributario. A ellas hay que cobrarles menos y darles un bono tributario si contratan más gente", precisó.
En ese sentido, refirió que es impensable una economía informal en pleno siglo XXI, un siglo tecnológico. "Debemos tener un plan de metas, a julio, a diciembre y en todos los temas: seguridad, salud, educación y trabajo", señaló.
13 de mayo de 2012 | 09:38 a.m.Clorinda Flores - web@grupoepensa.peLima - Para el exministro de Economía y Finanzas (MEF) Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) es contraproducente aumentar el Impuesto a la Renta (IR) al trabajo porque por pretender recaudar más no solo reduciría la posibilidad de crear nuevos empleos, sino también se arriesga recaudar menos ingresos para el Estado.
Por el contrario, dijo que se debe reducir ese impuesto. "Si queremos crear más empleos y obtener mayores ingresos fiscales, debemos formalizar la economía. Es necesario reducirlos progresivamente y dar facilidades para que la gran masa trabajadora se incorpore a una planilla formal y alcance beneficios laborales de salud y previsión para evitar que en 20 años haya una generación sin ningún tipo de pensión", agregó.
ESTANCADA. PPK recordó que el Perú está estancado desde hace 9 años en su nivel de recaudación tributaria, que va de 15% a 16% del producto bruto interno (PBI), no obstante de que la economía peruana se ha duplicado. "Tenemos que formalizarnos. Aquí en el Perú debemos bajar el IGV y el Impuesto a la Renta, pero al mismo tiempo tener un programa para incorporar a las pequeñas empresas al sistema tributario. A ellas hay que cobrarles menos y darles un bono tributario si contratan más gente", precisó.
En ese sentido, refirió que es impensable una economía informal en pleno siglo XXI, un siglo tecnológico. "Debemos tener un plan de metas, a julio, a diciembre y en todos los temas: seguridad, salud, educación y trabajo", señaló.
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Re: Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansi
por Carlos38 » Dom May 13, 2012 9:49 pm
Asia en rojo
LAST CHG %CHG
Hang Seng 19883.45 -81.18 -0.41%
Nikkei 8949.87 -3.44 -0.04%
Shanghai 2389.59 -5.40 -0.23%
BSE Sensex 16292.98 -127.07 0.77%
Asia Dow 2626.40 -15.37 -0.58%
LAST CHG %CHG
Hang Seng 19883.45 -81.18 -0.41%
Nikkei 8949.87 -3.44 -0.04%
Shanghai 2389.59 -5.40 -0.23%
BSE Sensex 16292.98 -127.07 0.77%
Asia Dow 2626.40 -15.37 -0.58%
Es locura manifiesta vivir precariamente para poder morir rico
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Re: Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansi
por admin » Dom May 13, 2012 10:01 pm
Australia +0.06%, el Hang Seng -0.05%, el Shanghai C. -0.14%, el Nikkei -0.01%
Yen down 80.01
Euro up 1.2887
Korea -0.59%
Los futures del Dow Jones 30 puntos a la baja.
Yen down 80.01
Euro up 1.2887
Korea -0.59%
Los futures del Dow Jones 30 puntos a la baja.
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Re: Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansi
por admin » Lun May 14, 2012 6:19 am
7:02 a.m. EDT 05/14/12Treasurys
Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note -1/32 0.266
10-Year Note 20/32 1.777
* at close
7:08 a.m. EDT 05/14/12Futures
Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 94.20 -1.93 96.13
Gold 1561.1 -22.9 1584.0
E-mini Dow 12686 -102 12788
E-mini S&P 500 1337.50 -12.50 1350.00
7:17 a.m. EDT 05/14/12Currencies
Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 79.80 79.94
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.2869 1.2917
† Late Friday in New York.
Price Chg Yield %
2-Year Note -1/32 0.266
10-Year Note 20/32 1.777
* at close
7:08 a.m. EDT 05/14/12Futures
Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 94.20 -1.93 96.13
Gold 1561.1 -22.9 1584.0
E-mini Dow 12686 -102 12788
E-mini S&P 500 1337.50 -12.50 1350.00
7:17 a.m. EDT 05/14/12Currencies
Last (mid) Prior Day †
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) 79.80 79.94
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.2869 1.2917
† Late Friday in New York.
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Re: Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansi
por admin » Lun May 14, 2012 6:20 am
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Re: Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansi
por admin » Lun May 14, 2012 6:22 am
Cae producción industrial zona euro en marzo
lunes 14 de mayo de 2012 06:19 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
BRUSELAS (Reuters) - La producción industrial de la zona euro bajó en marzo un 0,3 por ciento en una tasa mensual y un 2,2 por ciento en una tasa interanual, reportó la agencia de estadísticas Eurostat.
Las previsiones de un sondeo de Reuters eran de un aumento de la producción industrial del 0,4 por ciento en términos mensuales y de una caída del 1,2 por ciento en cifras interanuales.
(Traducido por la Redacción de Madrid; editado por Carlos Aliaga vía Mesa Santiago)
lunes 14 de mayo de 2012 06:19 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
BRUSELAS (Reuters) - La producción industrial de la zona euro bajó en marzo un 0,3 por ciento en una tasa mensual y un 2,2 por ciento en una tasa interanual, reportó la agencia de estadísticas Eurostat.
Las previsiones de un sondeo de Reuters eran de un aumento de la producción industrial del 0,4 por ciento en términos mensuales y de una caída del 1,2 por ciento en cifras interanuales.
(Traducido por la Redacción de Madrid; editado por Carlos Aliaga vía Mesa Santiago)
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Re: Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansi
por admin » Lun May 14, 2012 6:23 am
Diferencial deuda española/alemana 10 años a máximo de la era
lunes 14 de mayo de 2012 06:21 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
LONDRES (Reuters) - La prima de riesgo de la deuda española a 10 años contra el bund equivalente alcanzó un máximo desde la introducción del euro debido a las preocupaciones sobre los bancos y las dudas en torno al futuro de Grecia en la zona euro.
El diferencial de la deuda española a 10 años contra el bund equivalente se amplió en 26 puntos básicos a 477 pb. El spread italiano estaba al máximo desde enero a 442 puntos básicos.
La rentabilidad de la deuda española e italiana a dos años subía ampliamente al 4,015 por ciento y el 3,29 por ciento respectivamente.
(Reporte de Marius Zaharia. Traducido por la Redacción de Madrid; editado por Carlos Aliaga vía Mesa Santiago)
lunes 14 de mayo de 2012 06:21 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
LONDRES (Reuters) - La prima de riesgo de la deuda española a 10 años contra el bund equivalente alcanzó un máximo desde la introducción del euro debido a las preocupaciones sobre los bancos y las dudas en torno al futuro de Grecia en la zona euro.
El diferencial de la deuda española a 10 años contra el bund equivalente se amplió en 26 puntos básicos a 477 pb. El spread italiano estaba al máximo desde enero a 442 puntos básicos.
La rentabilidad de la deuda española e italiana a dos años subía ampliamente al 4,015 por ciento y el 3,29 por ciento respectivamente.
(Reporte de Marius Zaharia. Traducido por la Redacción de Madrid; editado por Carlos Aliaga vía Mesa Santiago)
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Re: Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansi
por admin » Lun May 14, 2012 6:24 am
Copper May 14,07:19
Bid/Ask 3.6048 - 3.6061
Change -0.0636 -1.73%
Low/High 3.5842 - 3.7088
Charts
Nickel May 14,07:19
Bid/Ask 7.7044 - 7.7112
Change -0.0289 -0.37%
Low/High 7.6350 - 7.8160
Charts
Aluminum May 14,07:19
Bid/Ask 0.8959 - 0.8967
Change -0.0092 -1.01%
Low/High 0.8927 - 0.9181
Charts
Zinc May 14,07:19
Bid/Ask 0.8658 - 0.8670
Change -0.0148 -1.68%
Low/High 0.8657 - 0.8851
Charts
Lead May 14,07:19
Bid/Ask 0.9135 - 0.9144
Change -0.0163 -1.76%
Low/High 0.9105 - 0.9412
Charts
Bid/Ask 3.6048 - 3.6061
Change -0.0636 -1.73%
Low/High 3.5842 - 3.7088
Charts
Nickel May 14,07:19
Bid/Ask 7.7044 - 7.7112
Change -0.0289 -0.37%
Low/High 7.6350 - 7.8160
Charts
Aluminum May 14,07:19
Bid/Ask 0.8959 - 0.8967
Change -0.0092 -1.01%
Low/High 0.8927 - 0.9181
Charts
Zinc May 14,07:19
Bid/Ask 0.8658 - 0.8670
Change -0.0148 -1.68%
Low/High 0.8657 - 0.8851
Charts
Lead May 14,07:19
Bid/Ask 0.9135 - 0.9144
Change -0.0163 -1.76%
Low/High 0.9105 - 0.9412
Charts
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Re: Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansi
por admin » Lun May 14, 2012 6:26 am
Antes de renunciar el CEO de Yahoo le dijo al directorio que tenia cancer.
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Re: Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansi
por admin » Lun May 14, 2012 6:27 am
Moody's advierte sobre la banca Espanola.
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Re: Lunes 14/05/12 China comienza a tomar medidas de expansi
por admin » Lun May 14, 2012 6:30 am
Los economistas en una encuesta del WSJ dijeron que la economia seguira creciendo muy lenta y que el desempleo se mantendra alto este anio.
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