Mas senales de que el Asia esta desacelerando
La menor demanda por parte de Europa y US continua erosionando el crecimiento de las economias impulsadas por las exportaciones del Asia.
La manufactura tambien se desacelero significativamente en la India el mes pasado, mientras en Korea del Sur, Taiwan y Vietnam la manufactura se ha contraido. South Korea mostro la mayor caida de sus exportaciones en casi tres anios. Indonesia, la economia mas grande del sur del Asia mostro una mejoria en manufactura, pero la demanda externa se ha debilitado y ha causado que su trade deficit sea mayor.
ASIA BUSINESSUpdated August 1, 2012, 6:45 a.m. ET
Asia Shows More Signs of Slowing
By MARTIN VAUGHAN
SINGAPORE—A slowdown in China's manufacturing sector in July added to a broader ramp-down in the region, as slack demand in Europe and the U.S. continued to erode growth in Asia's export-driven economies.
Manufacturing growth in India slowed sharply last month, while South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam experienced a contraction in manufacturing, according to HSBC data released Wednesday. South Korea recorded its largest monthly drop in exports in nearly three years. Indonesia, Southeast Asia's biggest economy showed a pickup in manufacturing, but weak external demand caused its trade deficit to widen sharply to a record amount.
The weak data bolster expectations that policymakers in China and elsewhere in Asia will further loosen monetary conditions to stimulate economic growth.
"This trough is proving deeper than we expected, but we are still looking for an upturn later in the year," said Barclays senior Asia economist Wai Ho Leong. "If anything, the soft readings we are seeing will only encourage more stimulus."
China's official Purchasing Managers Index, the government's gauge of the health of the manufacturing sector, slipped to 50.1 in July from 50.2 in June. The result dashed hopes for a slight recovery to 50.4 that had been predicted by economists in a Dow Jones survey.
.The Chinese PMI reading is the weakest since November 2011, and reflects three consecutive months of decline, as Europe's broadening debt crisis and a stalled U.S. economy have kept a lid on Western demand for Chinese exports.
A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing activity expanded during the month, while a reading below that figure indicates contraction.
A separate PMI gauge compiled by HSBC continued to show Chinese manufacturing activity is contracting, but not as sharply as in the previous month. The HSBC manufacturing PMI for China rose to 49.3 in July compared with 48.2 in June.
Taken together, the data strengthen the view of many economists that China will ease policy in the third quarter, either through cutting its benchmark rate or by reducing bank reserve requirements. Aside from policy action, Barclays' Leong said the expected launch of the Apple iPhone 5 this fall should give Chinese manufacturers a boost.
The dollar weakened against the yen after the release of the official Chinese PMI data, falling to ¥77.99 ($1) from ¥78.08 as the yen got a mild boost from safe-haven buying. But other impacts were subdued as markets remained focused on decisions by U.S. and European central banks Wednesday and Thursday.
India manufacturing activity slumped in July to its slowest pace in eight months, weighed down by weakness in new orders, particularly from overseas, HSBC said. Widespread power outages in July were also a factor, HSBC said, as sporadic blackouts throughout the month disrupted production. The PMI reading fell to 52.9 in July from 55.0 in June.
In South Korea, exports in July marked their biggest drop since October 2009 while consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in more than 12 years, strengthening expectations for a back-to-back rate cut by the country's central bank this month.
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CloseEugene Hoshiko/Associated Press
A Geely auto plant in Cixi, China; manufacturing growth in China continued to slow in July, the official Purchasing Managers Index showed.
.Korean exports fell 8.8% in July from a year earlier, the government said, much weaker than a forecast 3.9% drop. Conditions for manufacturers worsened in July for a second month in a row, according to HSBC's PMI gauge, which was at 47.2 in July from 49.4 in the previous month.
It was a similar story in Taiwan, where the HSBC PMI fell to 47.5 in July from 49.2 in June, as new orders declined.
"The inventory build-up for a number of key product launches which has underpinned manufacturing activity since the first quarter is coming to an end, but the pick up in final demand that's needed to keep things going is nowhere in sight," HSBC said.
The weak global environment was compounded by poor domestic demand in Vietnam, where HSBC's PMI gauge for July fell to 43.6 from 46.6 in June.
In Indonesia, higher domestic demand helped to propel the HSBC PMI up to 51.4 in July from 50.2 in June. But falling export orders also weighed on businesses. Other data showed a sharp deterioration in the country's trade position, with the deficit widening to a record $1.33 billion in June from $490 million in May, as exports declined 8.7% from the month prior.
Despite the regional slowdown in output, capital investment flows into the region have surged in recent weeks as expectations of further easing by central banks in the U.S. and Europe have propelled central bank, pension and insurance funds into Asia seeking higher yields, said Sameer Goel, head of Asia rates and currency research at Deutsche Bank.
That has boosted Asian government bonds and currencies such as the Korean won, and should continue despite July's downbeat economic data, he said. "Here and now, the expectations of policy easing by the [Fed] and ECB are dominating price action more than anything else," said Goel.
Write to Martin Vaughan at
martin.vaughan@dowjones.com Correction
Manufacturing growth slowed sharply in India last month. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said manufacturing slowed.