Miercoles 21/07/10 Apple mas expectacular que nunca!!

[admin]

El outlook de la economia es debil, estan preparados para tomar mas medidas si fuera necesario.

Bernanke Signals No Policy Shift

By TOM BARKLEY And MICHAEL R. CRITTENDEN
WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled Wednesday that no moves were imminent to bolster the recovery despite a "somewhat weaker outlook" for the economy.

In his semiannual monetary policy testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, the Fed chief assured that the central bank would remain flexible in light of the "unusually uncertain" economic outlook.

.Even as the central bank continues to plan for an eventual return from ultra-accommodative policy, "we remain prepared to take further policy actions as needed to foster a return to full utilization of our nation's productive potential in a context of price stability," Mr. Bernanke said in prepared remarks.

Fed officials downgraded their economic forecasts at last month's monetary policy meeting in the face of weakening consumer spending and labor market conditions, as well as concerns about a spillover from the European debt troubles. The economy is now expected to expand between 3% and 3.5% in 2010, down from an April estimate of 3.2% to 3.7% growth.

A few officials see a growing threat of deflation, minutes from the June 22-23 meeting showed, though Mr. Bernanke made no mention of that risk.

The recovery is continuing at a "moderate pace," he said, with expectations that private demand will help offset the impact of waning fiscal stimulus and a slowdown in inventory buildup.

While overall inflation has been volatile, core prices have trended lower over the past two years, he said.

Sovereign debt concerns in Europe have made financial conditions less supportive of growth in recent months, though dollar swap lines the Fed reopened with several central banks have boosted market confidence despite their limited use.

The soundness of the U.S. banking system has also improved significantly, he said, with loss rates on most loans likely peaking.


The One Question Congress Needs to Ask Bernanke
1:23

Ben Bernanke begins two days of testimony before Congress Wednesday. WSJ's David Wessel says if lawmakers can abandon their partisan politics, there's one big question they need to ask the Fed chairman.
.Mr. Bernanke and other members of the policy-making Federal Open Market Committee "expect continued moderate growth, a gradual decline in the unemployment rate, and subdued inflation over the next several years," he said.

The deterioration in the outlook has been too modest to force policymakers to consider additional stimulus. But the minutes from the last meeting showed a shift in the debate within the Fed -- from trying to agree on a date to start selling mortgage debt bought up during the crisis, to raising the possibility of further accommodation.

Mr. Bernanke made no suggestion that additional stimulus measures may be needed, reiterating the message that has been conveyed for over a year that the Fed plans to keep short-term rates at record lows for "an extended period."

His comments remained focused on how the central bank will need to tighten conditions to prevent inflation "at some point."

At least one lawmaker disagreed, with Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) asking what more the Fed can do to expand output and employment.

"It looks like our economy is in need of additional help," said Mr. Dodd in his opening remarks.

Laying out the exit strategy, Mr. Bernanke said that instead of raising the key federal-funds rate at which banks lend to each other, the Fed will start lifting short-term rates by paying banks more on reserves.

To improve the effectiveness of that effort, the Fed will also drain a portion of the more than $1.0 trillion in excess reserves that banks have accumulated from central bank purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasurys, he said.

The Fed has recently started testing ways to drain liquidity. The central bank has carried out reverse-repurchase agreements, or reverse repos, in which banks lock up money by borrowing against the Fed's portfolio of securities holdings. Through several term deposit auctions, the Fed has also set up interest-bearing deposits to give banks an incentive to stash their money at the central bank instead of lending it out.

Over the longer run, the Fed plans to reduce its portfolio to more normal levels, said Mr. Bernanke.

So far, the Fed has let the mortgage-related debt it acquired to mature or get paid off without reinvesting the proceeds, while rolling over its holdings of maturing Treasury securities into new Treasurys of similar maturity.

To shrink the portfolio, the central bank could reinvest proceeds from Treasurys into shorter-dated Treasurys, though no decision on that has been made, he said.

Fed officials broadly agree that the central bank should eventually sell some of the holdings of agency and mortgage-backed securities it bought up to shore up the housing market, said Mr. Bernanke.

Many economists don't expect the fed-funds rate to be lifted from the 0%-to-0.25% range it has held since late 2008 until well into next year.

On a day when President Barack Obama signed into law the most sweeping regulatory overhaul since the Great Depression, Mr. Bernanke said "much work remains to be done" to implement the measures and develop macro-prudential tools.

But he said the bill, along with stronger capital and liquidity standards being developed, will minimize the risk of repeat of the financial crisis.

Beating back congressional threats to its supervisory authority and independence, the Fed emerged with even greater powers than before the crisis. The central bank will oversee the largest, systemically important financial firms.

Congress also stopped short of demanding the power to audit monetary policy decisions, instead agreeing to a one-time review of crisis lending activity.

[admin]

Lo que se necesita es un cambio de gobierno.

[admin]

Au down $7 a 1,184, oil down 76.62

-100.96

[admin]

Yields down 2.91%

El sector financiero 1.08% a la baja.

-109.59

[admin]

Euro debajo de 1.28 a 1.2751

Lo del stress test de la banca Europea es el Viernes y tienen que ser malas noticias.

-111.48

[admin]

Bernanke: "la deuda actual y el deficit del pais es insostenible"

-108.53

La politica monetaria no podria ser mas facil y acomodativa para estimular el crecimiento de la economia. Si la economia no se recupera tendremos que considerar otras acciones.

[El_Diez]

El precio del Oro o rebota o de lo contrario se podria salir del canal alcista iniciado en Octubre del 2008. La línea marrón es la media móvil de 200 días.



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[admin]

Bernanke en constante comunicacion con Europa, viaja para alla este fin de semana.

-157.19

FAZ + 4.91%
FAS -4.90%

[carl_]

El oro es el termometro de las desgracias

[carl_]

Todavia no se ve nada, es una baja con poco volumen.

[admin]

Dos veces en su testimonio dijo Bernanjke que los intereses se mantendrian muy bajos por un periodo largo.

Listos para tomar medidas adicionales. Traduccion: la economia no esta bien.....

-132.06

[admin]

Creo que se ha llegado al climax de las relaciones entre el gobierno y el sector privado, ya abiertamente y claramente se ve que el sector privado no va a arriesgarse atomar riesgo o emplear a mas personal por que las condiciones puestas por el gobierno de Obama son hostiles para las ganancias de capital, para la reinversion y para el espiritu empresarial.

No hay vuelta que darle, creo que nos quedamos en el limbo hasta Noviembre. Por eso es que cualquier alza no dura todos salen inmediatamente a vender y asegurar sus ganancias.

-111.63

[carl_]

"Países emergentes deben prepararse para el freno de capitales"
18:56Para el BCR, el desequilibrio en los mercados financieros ha exacerbado la posibilidad de una reversión en los flujos de capital.

Los países emergentes deben estar preparados para actuar en caso de que la incertidumbre en los mercados financieros y los riesgos que afronta la recuperación económica mundial reviertan los fuertes flujos de capital que han recibido, advirtió el Banco Central de Reserva (BCR).

Naciones de Asia y Latinoamérica, como China y Brasil, han atraído ingentes cantidades de dinero por parte de inversores alentados por tasas de crecimiento cercanas o en los dos dígitos, en una apuesta por mayores rendimientos fuera de los mercados tradicionales.

“El actual desequilibrio en los mercados financieros ha exacerbado la probabilidad de una futura reversión en los flujos de capital”, dijo el presidente del BCR, Julio Velarde, en una conferencia.

Las diferencias entre las políticas monetarias de naciones desarrolladas y emergentes, persistentes desequilibrios globales, alta incertidumbre en los mercados financieros y el riesgo de un fuerte retroceso de los precios de las materias primas podrían ocasionar una reversión de los flujos de capital, explicó.

También se suman los riesgos bajistas sobre la recuperación global, asociados con los problemas de deuda en algunos países desarrollados y el débil consumo en Estados Unidos, la mayor economía del planeta, añadió.

Ante ello, Velarde recomendó la utilización de instrumentos no convencionales para atenuar el impacto de las grandes cantidades de dinero que han recibido las economías emergentes. Medidas para elevar las tasas de encaje a los depósitos podrían acompañar las políticas monetarias, así como intervenciones en los mercados cambiarios para reducir la volatilidad del tipo de cambio, dijo.

“Una acumulación preventiva de reservas internacionales es fundamental para reducir los riesgos de la dolarización financiera”, agregó.

REUTERS – 20/07/10

[carl_]

el us index ha subido 83.47. Pero el sol siguen revaluandose.

[gatof]

Pobre Obama (y cualquier otro que le hubiese tocado ser presidente),el primer presidente negro de los Estados Unidos de N. y le tocara servir como chivo expiatorio de la incomprension de muchas mentes estrechas de la mayor crisis economica financiera y posiblemente social de los ultimos 75 años.No faltara que el populorum diga no era el Papa negro de Roma era el Presidente negro de EUA.Y como estaran los activos toxicos?