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El Fin del Optimismo Americano
Hemos tenido los mas grandes estimulos ffiscales y monetarios de la epoca moderna. Hemos tenido una serie de programas que le pagaba a la gente que compraba carros, casas, hipotecas, proteger sus casas contra el clima, instalar paneles solares. Y aun la recuperacion es timida y los efectos de la post-burbuja se siguen sintiendo.
Todavia faltan contratar a 2.5 millones de personas para que el desempleo baje del 8% como prometio Obama. La preocupacion por el crecimiento ahora es que haya una segunda recesion y deflacion. Las cosas estan tan mal que Bernanke ha dicho que vivimos una no usual incertidumbre.
Estamos en el periodo de crecimiento del final de la Segunda Guerra Mundial? Toneladas de dinero se ha puesto a disposicion de los bancos para salvarlos y llenar el gran hueco de la economia, pero nada esta trabajando de manera normal y como ha ocurrido despues de previas crisis.
Y ahora estamos en lo que un numero de economistas ha denominado "la nueva normalidad" Esta es una economia de menor crecimiento y los ultimos sondeos de opinion revelan que los Americanos se distancien de la creencia de que sus hijos estaran mejor que ellos.
Que era lo normal despues de la Segunda Guerra Mundial? en primer lugar cuatro trimestres dentro de la recuperacion, el verdadero GDP se expandia a mas del 6%. Ahora salimos de una recesion con un crecimiento del 2.4%
Tuvimos un beneficio en el aumento del GDP debido a la produccion de inventarios y se penso que se mantenia, pero no ocurrio.David Rosenberg chief economist de Gluskin Sheff dice que esta asustado de que la nueva normalidad, las ventas solian aumentar 4% al anio, ahora es solo 1.2% y esta es la mas debil recuperacion de la historia de este pais.
Normalmente en este punto de la recuperacion se agregan 700,000 empleos por encima del punto mas algo. En esta recesion, estamos a la baja en ocho millones de empleos desde el punto mas alto del 2007. Y en lo que respecta a la confianza del consumidor,el Conference Board indica que estamos 20 puntos por debajo de lo normal despues de otras recesiones.
La economia Americana parece haber sufrido un cambio estructural. La relacion de la deuda de las familias Americadas con respecto a su ingreso ha probado ser insostenible. La proporcion normalmente establecida debe ser debajo del 100%, pero en el 2007 la proporcion de la deuda fue de 131% del ingreso. Ahora ha caido a 122% pero a este ritmo van a pasar muchos anios antes que baje del 100%. Antes de la burbuja el ratio era 70%. Para llegar a ese nivel nuevamente la deuda debe bajar en $6 trillones.
Mientras tanto, estamos mirando a un ciclo vicioso de morosidad que produce mas contraccion de credito y mas debilidad economica multiplicando la cautela de los que piden creditos, los que otorgan credito, los prestamistas y las autoridades financieras publicas.
La fuente de stress mas obvia en estos momentos es la falta de crecimiento de los trabajos, y se va a poner peor. El desempleo real esta muy por encima del 9.5%. Ese numero se ha mantenido por que solo 1'115,000 de personas ya no buscan trabajo y han abandonado el mercado laboral hace tres meses. Si ellos siguieran buscando empleo el verdadero rate de desempleo seria del 10.4%
Ahora hay por lo menos 14.5 millones de americanos buscando empleo" 1.4 millones de ellos han estado sin trabjo por mas de 99 semanas, 6.5 millones no han tenido trabajo por mas de 27 semanas. Esta es una increible refleccion del desempleo a largo plazo que estamos viviendo.
Las cifras del desempleo son mayores a las que se reportan. El Dpto. del Trabajo admitio que el anio pasado dijo que habian 1.4 millones de gente que estaba trabajando lo cual no era cierto. Eso ocurrio por que usa un programa de computadoras que trata de extrapolar cuantas companias nuevas estan siendo creadas durante el mes y luego estima el numero de empleos que se han creado. Esa practica es equivocada.
Desde Abril, el Dpto. del Trabajo ha contado 550,000 empleos que no existen, es decir que Obama no ha creado ni un solo empleo en lugar de los 660,000 que su administracion defiende.
El gobierno de Obama proyecta que el desempleo bajara a 8.7% para el final del proximo anio y 6.7 para el 2013. Eso es totamente fuera de la realidad. Eso significa que tendrian que agregarse 300,000 empleos al mes durante los proximos 3 anios. Al ritmo que vamos, tomara entre 6 a 9 anios el llegar a ese nivel.
Si hay un fracaso depolitica en esta recesion es que no se ha usado la crisis para implementar reformas estructurales. Por ejemplo, tenemos una falta de balance entre las habilidades de los trabajadores y los trabajos que se ofrecen. Los negocios tienen problemas para conseguir personal calificados para los nuevos empleos. Millones estan sentados esperando a conseguir empleo en lugar de ser entrenados para los trabajo que el futuro demanda y que requiere una educacion superior.
Considerando que 8 de cada 10 empleos que se requieren demanda entrenamiento o educacion superior, no tiene sentido que se haya cambiado la politica de inmigrantes calificados en el pais. Al contrario se esntan enviando de regreso a profesionales extranjeros con masters y doctrados en ciencias a sus paises. Ese es personal que el pais necesita, esa es la gente que crea empleos no le quita empleos a los Americanos. La incorporacion de los inmigrantes ha sido una de las ventajas de la economia Americana. Este es el momento para volver a la practica de acoger a los inmigrantes.
La educacion superior es otro asunto critico. El desempleo es el doble para los que no fueron a la universidad.
Pero si el escenario economico es dramatico, el escenario politico es totalmente deprimente. Tenemos un sistema paralizado. Ni los democratas, ni los republicanos parecen encontrar puntos en comun para solucionar la crisis del empleo. Encontrar politicas en comun entre los dos partidos es la oportunidad de empleo para los verdaderos lideres.
The End of American Optimism
By MORTIMER ZUCKERMAN
Our brief national encounter with optimism is now well and truly over. We have had the greatest fiscal and monetary stimulus in modern times. We have had a whole series of programs to pay people to buy cars, purchase homes, pay off their mortgages, weatherize their homes, and install solar paneling on their roofs. Yet the recovery remains feeble and the aftershocks of the post-bubble credit collapse are ongoing.
We are at least 2.5 million jobs short of getting back to the unemployment rate of under 8% promised by the Obama administration. Concern grows that we are looking at a double-dip recession and hovering on the brink of a destructive deflation. Things are bad enough for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to have characterized the economic outlook late last month as "unusually uncertain."
Are we at the end of the post-World War II period of growth? Tons of money have been shoveled in to rescue reckless banks and fill the huge hole in the economy, but nothing is working the way it normally had in all our previous crises.
Rather, we are in what a number of economists are referring to as the "new normal." This is a much slower-growing economy that, recent surveys have revealed, is causing many Americans to distance themselves from the long-held assumption that their children will have it better than they.
What was thought to be normal in the context of post-World War II recoveries? One is that four quarters into the recovery, real GDP would expand at an annual rate over 6%. We are coming out of the current recession at a 2.4% growth rate.
We did enjoy a GDP boost from a buildup of inventories anticipating a recovery at normal speed, but it didn't happen. David Rosenberg, chief economist of Gluskin Sheff, regards it as "frightening" that whereas the "normal" rate of increase in final sales is 4% annually, this time sales have averaged only 1.2%, the weakest revival in recorded history.
At this point after the onset of a recession, employment payrolls have typically exceeded 700,000 jobs above the previous peak. In this recession, we are still down roughly eight million jobs from the December 2007 peak. As for consumer confidence, the Conference Board survey shows an average a full 20 points below the average lows of previous recessions.
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.There seems to be a structural change in the American economy. The relationship of household debt to income has proven unsustainable. The ratio is normally established somewhere below 100%, but in 2007 the debt ratio hit 131% of income. It has now fallen to 122%, but at this pace it would take another five years to bring it under 100%. The pre-bubble norm was 70%. To get to this ratio again, debt would have to be reduced by about $6 trillion.
In the meantime, we may well be looking at a vicious cycle of defaults that in turn would produce credit tightening and still more economic weakness—compounding the caution among borrowers, lenders and public financial authorities.
The most obvious source of distress right now is lack of payroll growth, and it's likely to get worse. Real unemployment today is well above the headline number of 9.5%. That number held steady only because 1,115,000 people gave up hope of finding work and left the labor force in the last three months. Otherwise the headline unemployment rate would have been around 10.4%.
Now there are at least 14.5 million Americans still searching for work: 1.4 million of them have been jobless for more than 99 weeks, 6.5 million have been jobless for over 27 weeks. This is a stunning reflection of the longer-term unemployment we are coping with.
The unemployment numbers are worse than reported. Last year the Labor Department admitted it over-counted the number of jobs by 1.4 million. Why? Because they used a computer program that tries to extrapolate how many new companies are being created during each month and then estimates the number of jobs these firms should be creating. They were wrong.
Since April, the Labor Department has counted 550,000 nonexistent jobs under this so-called birth/death series. Without these phantom jobs, the economy this year created virtually no jobs—certainly not the 600,000 the administration has been touting.
The Obama administration projects the unemployment rate will drop to 8.7% by the end of next year and 6.8% by 2013. That is totally unrealistic. It means we would have to add nearly 300,000 jobs a month over the next three years. At the rate we're going, it will take anywhere from six to nine years to climb out of this hole. The labor market may be improving, but the pace is glacial.
.If there is one great policy failure of this recession, it's that we have not used the crisis to introduce structural reforms. For example, we have a gross mismatch of available skills and demonstrable needs. Businesses struggle to find the skills and talents that are needed to compete in this new world. Millions drawing the dole to sit around should be in training for the jobs of the future that require higher educational skills.
Given that nearly eight in 10 new jobs, according to the administration, will require work-force training or higher education, it furthermore makes no sense that we have reversed the traditional American policy of welcoming skilled immigrants and integrating them into our economy. Because of a recrudescent nativism, we send home thousands upon thousands of foreign students who have gotten masters and doctoral degrees in the hard sciences at American universities. These are people who create jobs, not displace them. The incorporation of immigrants used to be one of the core competencies of our economy. It's time to return to that successful model.
Higher education is another critical issue. As President Obama pointed out last week in his speech at the University of Texas, we have fallen from first to 12th in college graduation rates for young adults. The unemployment rate for those who have never gone to college is almost double what it is for those who have.
Education may be the key economic issue of our time, Mr. Obama said in his speech, for "countries that out-educate us today . . . will out-compete us tomorrow." To improve our performance will involve massive increases in scholarship support for higher education, and an increase in H-1B visas for foreign students who get M.A.s and Ph.D.s in the hard sciences.
But if the economic scene these days is daunting, the political scene is downright depressing. We have a paralyzed system. Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans seem able to find common ground to address what is clearly going to be an ongoing employment crisis. Finding that common ground is a job opportunity for real leaders.
Mr. Zuckerman is chairman and editor in chief of U.S. News & World Report.
Lo que Mr Zuckerman ahora constata y comenta ya ha sido previsto hace mucho tiempo.Poco a poco, aunque tardiamente se empiezan a abrir los ojos y tomar conciencia que los excesos cometidos durante muchisimos años y las consecuencias de las equivocadas medidas para solucionar las cosas desde cuando Bush aun era presidente, se tendran que pagar si o si.La claridad de mente o los reflejos rapidos no es patrimonio de muchos,lo cierto es que para solucionar los problemas se necesitaran medidas traumaticas.