Miercoles 15/04/15 China crece solo 7%

[Fenix]

Analista del Sector Autos: El resto de mi carrera se centrará en este gráfico

Miércoles, 15 de Abril del 2015 - 14:57:00

El analista Adam Jonas, de Morgan Stanley, dice que este gráfico es tan importante que usted debería ponerlo en su tablero de inversión. "Contar la historia de este gráfico ocupará el resto de mi vida profesional. Es un poco triste que mi vida pueda resumirse en un gráfico... pero es cierto."

Jonas dice que la industria automotriz está en la mira por empresas externas que quieren entrar en el mercado de 10 billones de dólares de la movilidad (10 billones de millas recorridas x $1/milla)" y que el futuro de la industria va a girar en torno a dos fenómenos bastante recientes: ( 1) la economía compartida y (2) la conducción autónoma.


El analista de Morgan Stanleu lo divide en cuatro cuadrantes: el status quo de hoy, el mercado de la movilidad compartida con los gustos de Uber, "autonomía en propiedad" donde estamos dando el control de los coches a un ordenador, y "autonomía compartida" una flota de vehículos autónomos que estarán operando las 24 horas del día.

Así que, básicamente, el camino que la industria automotriz recorrerá desde el cuadrante 1 al cuadrante 4 será toda la historia de la industria automotriz.


The South (China) Sea Bubble
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/15/2015 - 14:34

Given the recent weakness in Chinese data, you might think that investor spirits would be dampened but, as anyone who has opened a paper in recent days will be aware, that is very much far from being the case. Indeed, China is currently enjoying the somewhat dubious fruits of one of the all-time great stock manias. Of course, it is not just Chinese stock markets that are being driven beyond the bounds of sanity by wild-eyed policy measures. Nor will it be just the Chinese who will eventually have to pay the price of such folly but, at the moment, it does appear as if they may be suffering from a more virulent strain of the pandemic that is afflicting the rest of the world, too. So, possibly, it will be in their country first that, in Cantillon’s words, ‘this furtive abundance [of fictitious and imaginary money] vanishes at the first gust of discredit and [so] precipitates disorder.’

[Fenix]

15:24 Nikkei 225. Cuidado con las posiciones largas
La divergencia bajista que ha emergido recientemente es una advertencia a este mercado sobrecomprado y un creciente riesgo para una corrección bajista.

La pérdida de los 19600 puntos sería la primera señal de una próxima corrección.

Resistencias 19934 19983 20006 20363
Soportes 19600 19433 19241 18927


Entre inversión y ahorro

Miércoles, 15 de Abril del 2015 - 15:52:00

Ya saben que la economía europea es ahorradora: presenta una capacidad de financiación internacional recurrente por encima del 2 % del PIB.

¿Les parece lógico desde una perspectiva fundamental? Bajo crecimiento potencial, envejecimiento de la población y baja productividad marginal. Sí, parece razonable.

Pero, ¿no identifican precisamente en los factores anteriores las principales lacras de la economía europea? La petición recurrente de reformas de oferta u estructurales se apoyan precisamente en la respuesta casi exclusivamente a través de políticas de demanda de corto plazo a los problemas europeos que pueden poner en cuestión la sostenibilidad del Euro. Con todo, es difícil avanzar en estas reformas cuando el escenario macro sigue siendo moderado. Y no es previsible que mejore mientras se mantengan las incertidumbres a medio y largo plazo justificadas por los factores anteriores y alguno más (la elevada deuda) aún pendientes de resolver. Un círculo vicioso que, al menos a corto plazo, queda enmascarado por la agresividad de las medidas tomadas por el ECB.


Ayer conocimos los datos de ahorro e inversión de familias y empresas en el área, correspondientes al Q4.

Por un lado, aumento de la tasa de ahorro de las familias del área hasta un 13 % de su renta disponible desde el 12.8 % anterior.

Y relativa estabilidad de su inversión, en niveles de 8.2 %.

La tasa de ahorro de las familias a finales del año pasado era la máxima desde un año y medio atrás.

La tasa de inversión, aunque estable sobre el nivel del Q3, también es el nivel más bajo en un año.

Por lo que respecta a las empresa, también considerando datos de finales del año pasado, la inversión se ha estabilizado en niveles del 21.9 %. Y niveles de 38.7 % en los beneficios empresariales, en términos de su valor añadido. Algo menos que el 39.1 % anterior.


José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

[Fenix]

71 Mentions Of "Weather" In The Latest Fed Beige Book
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/15/2015 - 14:18

There were the usual trite, forgettable highlights in the just released beige snow book, which as summarized by Bloomberg, had the following highlights:

FED: ECONOMY EXPANDED IN MOST REGIONS MID-FEB. TO END-MARCH; HIGHER RETAIL SALES REPORTED BY MAJORITY OF REGIONAL FED BANKS; BEIGE BOOK: LABOR MARKETS STABLE OR SHOWED MODEST IMPROVEMENT; REGIONAL FEDS NOTED MODEST UPWARD WAGE AND PRICE PRESSURE;

One can ignore all of the above, because the only word that matters in the latest beige book was one: "Weather"


VIXterminated Below 13 Sparks Another Surge In Stocks
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/15/2015 - 13:38

The slowly accelerating melt-up in stocks (amid earnings meeting massively lowered expectations, China's economy slumping, and US macro data hitting new multi-year lows) is aided and abetted by a collapse in VIX. Dow is above 18,000; S&P above 2,100, and Nasdaq above 5,000 - so everything is awesome. Trading volume remains well below a trending-lower average...


The Madness Of Negative Bond Yields
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/15/2015 - 13:02

Confidence in the system likely hangs by a much thinner thread than is currently widely perceived. Since “risk asset” prices are soaring in much of Europe, the underlying currents of suspicion are well masked, but that certainly doesn’t mean they don’t exist. While we believe that central bank and regulatory interventions in the market are a major reason why so many bond yields have dropped into negative territory, the role played by distrust in the banking system is probably quite large as well – a suspicion that seems to be confirmed by the strength of the euro-denominated gold price.


Russian Ruble Extends Outperformance - Surges To Strongest Since November
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/15/2015 - 12:37

Isolated Russia continues to see its currency dramatically outperform the US Dollar. Breaking below 50 today, this is the strongest the Ruble has been since Nov 2014... The Ruble is now up almost 22% against the US Dollar year-to-date.


DAX Just Flash-Crashed, Drags US Stocks Lower
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/15/2015 - 12:01

No apparent headlines as the European close looms and DAX Futures just plunged on heavy volume...

[Fenix]

NY Fed's "Plunge Protection Team" Starts Chicago Trading Floor "In Case Of Disaster Or Other Eventuality"
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/15/2015 - 10:48

We have known for quite some time now that the NY Fed's market group, aka the Plunge Protection Team, is opening a second office in HFT-capital Chicago. What was not known is what is the official reasoning behind the Fed's move to be even closer to its Citadel executions arm. Overnight, courtesy of Reuters we found that the "The New York branch of the U.S. Federal Reserve, wary that a natural disaster or other eventuality could shut down its market operations as it approaches an interest rate hike, has added staff and bulked up its satellite office in Chicago."


Homebuilder Confidence In April Jumps Most Since July
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/15/2015 - 10:08

It appears the homebuilders have got over the weather issues as NAHB optimism surged to 56 - beating expectations of 55. However this surge merely brings NAHB confidence back to its average stagnant levels of the last 2 years. Only Midswest saw confidence drop as homebuilders hope soared with future buyers at the highest since Dec 2014. Let's just hope sales follow through or the weather excuse is going to get old...


"Staggering" Student Loan Defaults On Deck: 27% Of Students Are A Month Behind On Their Payments
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/15/2015 - 10:05

A new St. Louis Fed study finds that the delinquency rate for student borrowers in repayment is 27.3%, meaning nearly one in three of the Americans laboring under a debt load that has now swelled to $1.3 trillion are more than a month behind on their payments. Ackman says there's "no way they are going to pay it back." We can hear the "cancel the debt" cries now.

[Fenix]

Bank of America Revenue Drops, Misses Due To Declining Trading Revenues, Loan Creation And Net Interest Margin

Submitted by Tyler D.
04/15/2015 08:02

One look at BofA's earnings report shows why contrary to popular opinion, the bank that bailed out insolvent Merrill Lynch is far better off to be pnealized with tens of billions in legal fees than running its business unbothered by the racketeering government. The reason: a year after BofA reported $6 billion in litigation charges, moments ago Bank of America announced only $0.4 billion in legal fees, which meant it barely had any credible addbacks. So when looking at its numbers on a realistic, GAAP basis, BofA once again missed EPS, with the bottom line printing at $0.27, or below the $0.29 estimate.

Of course, since the estimate was established by other bank analysts who are desperate to get credit for their own addbacks, the number which management hopes algos focus on is the $0.36 non-GAAP pro forma net of addbacks.

As BofA reports, first quarter 2015 reported earnings per diluted common share of $0.27. However, "Pre-tax results included the following items:"

* $1.0B annual retirement-eligible incentive costs, or $0.06 per share (recorded in both 1Q15 and 1Q14)
* $0.5B negative market-related adjustments to net interest income, or $0.03 per share, driven by the acceleration of bond premium amortization on debt securities due to lower long-term rates

It was unclear if the above are non-cash and why they should be therefore added back, especially since with BofA nothing is "non-recurring."

The breakdown was as follows:

Of note: even in a quiet quarter, BofA still suffered $400 million in litigation expenses. In fact, it is safe to say that being sued is ordinary course of business for BofA now.

Once again, as was the case with JPM, the layoffs continue, and BofA's total headcount declined by 4,000 in the past quarter to just under 220,000, down 18,000 from a year ago.

But why is BofA so pessimistic about its long-term prospects? Three reasons.

The main reason is that total loan creation - that lifeblood of conventional banking - continues to deteriorate. As BofA reports, "total loans and leases declined $3.4B from 4Q14, driven primarily by a reduction in residential mortgages in the discretionary portfolio and seasonal card decline, partially offset by an increase in Global Banking and Global Wealth & Investment Management (GWIM) lending."

Paradoxically, the offset, deposits, continues to increase: "Total deposits of $1.15T increased $34.2B, or 3%, from 4Q14, driven by a seasonal increase in tax balances and growth in customer and client activity."


Reason #2: Sales and Trade, and specifically FICC, revenue continues to deteriorate.

What BofA blamed for this latest disappointment:

* Net income of $0.9B in 1Q15 declined from 1Q14, due primarily to lower sales and trading results in FICC
* FICC revenue declined $0.2B, or 7%, from 1Q14, reflecting business mix weighting towards spread products, primarily credit and mortgages, which experienced lower client activity; decline was partially offset by post-merger record FX results due to increased market volatility

* * *

Finally, and this won't get better any time soon, or ever, BofA' reported Net Interest Margin just dropped to another record low, meaning the bank is stuck trading massively overbought risk assets if its wants to keep generating profits.

Expect the algos to catch none of the above and to close the stock solidly higher.

[Fenix]

"We're Living In A Gambling Society" BlackRock's Larry Fink Urges CEOs To Stop "Short-Termist" Thinking

Submitted by Tyler D.
04/14/2015 17:00
As the ongoing collapse in economic productivity continues in America, and Alan Greenspan's concerns grow, the call for an end to the diversion of corporate spending to instantly shareholder-friendly actions comes from an unusual source. Larry Fink - CEO of the largest asset manager in the world - has unleashed a letter to 500 CEOs around the world - telling them that "the effects of the short-termist phenomenon are troubling both to those seeking to save for long-term goals such as retirement and for our broader economy,” bucking the dividend/buyback trend that investors are demanding. As NYTimes notes, the shortsightedness that pervades corporate America is just a symptom of a larger issue. "This is not just a corporate problem," Fink explains, "It's a societal problem, we’re currently living in a "gambling society."

Larry Fink's Letter... encouraging a focus on long-term growth strategies...

Dear Chairman or CEO,

As a fiduciary investor, one of BlackRock’s primary objectives is to secure better financial futures for our clients and the people they serve. This responsibility requires that we be good stewards of their capital, addressing short-term challenges but always with a focus on the longer term.

To meet our clients’ needs, we believe the companies we invest in should similarly be focused on achieving sustainable returns over the longer term. Good corporate governance is critical to that goal. That is why, two years ago, I wrote to the CEOs of the companies in which BlackRock held significant investments on behalf of our clients urging them to engage with us on issues of corporate governance. While important work remains to be done, good progress has been made on company-shareholder engagement. I write today re-iterating our call for engagement with a particular focus on companies’ strategies to drive longer term growth.

Many commentators lament the short-term demands of the capital markets. We share those concerns, and believe it is part of our collective role as actors in the global capital markets to challenge that trend. Corporate leaders can play their part by persuasively communicating their company’s long-term strategy for growth. They must set the stage to attract the patient capital they seek: explaining to investors what drives real value, how and when far-sighted investments will deliver returns, and, perhaps most importantly, what metrics shareholders should use to assess their management team’s success over time.

It concerns us that, in the wake of the financial crisis, many companies have shied away from investing in the future growth of their companies. Too many companies have cut capital expenditure and even increased debt to boost dividends and increase share buybacks. We certainly believe that returning cash to shareholders should be part of a balanced capital strategy; however, when done for the wrong reasons and at the expense of capital investment, it can jeopardize a company’s ability to generate sustainable long-term returns. We do recognize the balance that must be achieved to drive near-term performance while simultaneously making those investments – in innovation and product enhancements, capital and plant equipment, employee development, and internal controls and technology – that will sustain growth.

BlackRock’s mission is to earn the trust of our clients by helping them meet their long-term investment goals. We see this mission as indistinguishable from also aiming to be a trusted, responsible shareholder with a longer term horizon. Much progress has been made on company-shareholder engagement and we will continue to play our part as a provider of patient capital in ensuring robust dialogue. We ask that you help us, and other shareholders, to understand the investments you are making to deliver the sustainable, long-term returns on which our clients depend and in which we seek to support you.

* * *

With Economic Productivity on the decline...

as corporate spending is diverted to Buybacks...

And corporate executives are selling their own stock in record amounts...

Maybe what Fink should have said is - stop abusing stakeholders for the sake of your own enrichment.


Ron Paul Asks "Who Profits?" From The New Militarism
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/14/2015 - 22:30

One of the most pervasive and dangerous myths of our time is that military spending benefits an economy. This could not be further from the truth. Such spending benefits a thin layer of well-connected and well-paid elites. It diverts scarce resources from meeting the needs and desires of a population and channels them into manufacturing tools of destruction. The costs may be hidden by the money-printing of the central banks, but they are eventually realized in the steady destruction of a currency.

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DJIA 18105.77 -6.84 -0.04%
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Russell 2000 1272.90