Miercoles 25/02/15 Ventas de casas nuevas, habla Yellen

[Fenix]

Goldman Sachs mantiene su visión alcista sobre el dólar/yen
Mi�rcoles, 25 de Febrero del 2015 - 11:17
Goldman Sachs mantiene su visión alcista sobre el dólar/yen al que fijan un precio objetivo de 130 para final de año.

Ahora cotiza a 118,9


is Ukranie another Zimbabwe ?


Eeyores E.: Do all the employers raise wages at the same rate as inflation on Ukranie?

Sessimpo: I think that is a false comparison just like those that use the Wiemar Republic. Neither Ukraine or Wiemar were the world's currency reserve. That is why I have been right in being bullish the dollar.

What is more likely to happen is the dollar continues its strength against other currencies as deflation rages and nations have to get dollars to service debt loads. Then at some point, defaults occur when those debt loads just can't be serviced and then we have an eventual dollar collapse and a move toward a new currency reserve or one backed by commodities such as PMs. Until then, the dollar marches upward.

Oldwood: You may be right, but that doesn't make it a good thing. Economic instabilities have always created "opportunities" which is why we have them. But don't be so foolish as to believe that just because you are on the high side of the Titanic, that your end will be any different from the rest of the passengers.


Las bolsas europeas se mantienen firmes en zona de máximos

Los resultados empresariales vuelven a captar el interés inversor
Mi�rcoles, 25 de Febrero del 2015 - 11:50:29

Ligeras tomas de beneficio al cierre de las bolsas europeas y en lo que llevamos de sesión en Wall Street, que podemos considerar lógicas ante los altos niveles de sobrecompra alcanzados y la verticalidad de las subidas de las últimas jornadas.

Sesión muy tranquila de escasas referencias macroeconómicas, bajo volumen negociado y escasa volatilidad. Entre el máximo y el mínimo intradía del Eurostoxx 50 apenas ha habido 25 puntos de diferencia.

La jornada se iniciaba con el buen dato del sector manufacturero en China, cuyo PMI volvía adentrarse en zona expansiva. Esto, junto con el buen comportamiento del sector inmobiliario y financiero, permitía que la bolsa china borrara las pérdidas iniciales y cerrara con ligeras alzas.

Los resultados económicos eran el principal foco de atención inversora antes de la apertura de las bolsas del viejo continente. En España conocíamos las cuentas de Telefónica, Endesa, REE y Ferrovial entre otras. En general resultados por encima de las previsiones que fueron bien acogidos en bolsa. Sobre todo en el caso de Endesa con subidas por encima del 5% y de Ferrovial ascensos por encima del 2%.

En el caso de Telefónica los resultados estuvieron por debajo de las previsiones, pero una segunda interpretación junto con la entrada de varios fondos internacionales a media mañana provocó que el valor rompiera al alza, rompiendo resistencias importantes.

Existía un consenso en esa preapertura que esta jornada debería servir como reflexión, con los inversores tomándose una pausa para situarse de nuevo una vez que la crisis griega parece haberse postergado unos meses. "Deberemos volver a echar cuentas, analizar el conjunto de los resultados en 2014 y comprobar si los niveles actuales son justificables o no", nos comentaba un operador nacional.


También se tomaba con mucha tranquilidad el discurso ayer de la presidenta de la Fed Janet Yellen en el Senado de EE.UU. Las conclusiones que podríamos sacar de ella son:

- No habrá subida de tipos en las próximas dos reuniones.
- Se monitorizará el empleo y la inflación con especial atención para tomar la decisión sobre los tipos.
- La desaceleración económica global afecta a la economía de EE.UU.
- La inflación seguirá reduciéndose en el corto plazo.

Por tanto se mantiene el discurso "dovish" de Yellen, que era precisamente lo esperado por el mercado. Ninguna sorpresa por tanto a este respecto.

No estaba en el guion sin embargo, las palabras del ministro de finanzas griego en las que afirmaba que Grecia no tendría liquidez para pagar a la Troika en verano. "Ahora no tenemos un problema inmediato de liquidez. Lo tendremos en verano", comentó.

Estas declaraciones provocaron un incremento de la presión vendedora, no excesivamente, y llevó a los indicadores europeos a los mínimos de la jornada.

Sin embargo, el momento alcista de las bolsas sigue siendo fuerte, y cualquier corrección es aprovechada por los inversores para tomar posiciones. Eso es lo que ocurrió y los descensos no llegaron ni al medio punto porcentual.

Ayudó también a esta recuperación de la renta variable del viejo continente la apertura alcista de Wall Street, y el buen dato de ventas de viviendas nuevas en el mes de enero. Se temía peores cifras después del mal dato de ventas de viviendas de segunda mano.

En suma, pocos movimientos al cierre de las bolsas europeas, en una tranquila jornada como serán previsible las que quedan para finalizar la semana.

[Comodoro]

Los gráficos del día,
.

.

.

.

.

.

[admin]

DJIA 18214.04 4.85 0.03%
Nasdaq 4960.69 -7.43 -0.15%
S&P 500 2112.23 -3.25 -0.15%
Russell 2000 1232.56

[Fenix]

February 23, 2015
Michelle Jones

Apple stock keeps touching new highs and has firmly held its top position in hedge fund ownership

As Apple’s market capitalization rises, its popularity among hedge funds has also been rising recently. Goldman Sachs released its latest Hedge Fund Trend Monitor last week, and the firm reports that one out of every five of the 688 “fundamentally-drive” hedge funds they sampled holds a position in Apple.
Apple reigns supreme among hedge funds

According to Goldman, 12% of the funds they follow have Apple as one of their top ten positions. They say this is the second quarter in a row that Apple was the top stock in their Very Important Positions list of the most popular long positions among hedge funds. The company’s stock has been in the top five Very Important Positions for over six years, reports Goldman.

Currently hedge fund ownership of Apple is still below the recent peak levels, but it is on the rise, suggesting that it could reach those peaks again. (All graphs / charts in this article are courtesy Goldman Sachs).

1 Apple Hedge Funds
Apple to drive hedge fund returns

Because of Apple’s monstrous and growing bulk, the company is going to be one of the most important drivers for hedge fund returns. The company makes up 4% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization and 5% of consensus earnings per share estimates for this year.

Because Apple has returned 17% so far this year, the stock has contributed 61 basis points of the S&P 500’s 2.3% year to date return, which amounts to 27%.
Only up from here for Apple

Goldman Sachs analyst Bill Shope increased his price target for Apple recently to $145 per share, which suggests an upside of 13%. He believes the company will see a 36% growth rate in earnings per share this year and 21% compound annual growth rate through 2017. He also thinks Apple’s price to earnings multiple to increase to 16 times.

Of course there are several factors that will greatly impact Apple’s growth rate this year. iPhone volume is perhaps the biggest factor, but the impact of rapidly weakening foreign currencies, growth in iPad and Mac sales, and whether or not the Apple Watch is a success will also affect the stock. Also management is expected to announce an increased share repurchase plan in April, which is also expected to drive shares.

If Apple sees positive from all of these factors, Shope’s bull case suggests Apple stock could touch $172 per share. Of course that depends on whether share repurchases and sales numbers beat expectations. On the other hand, his bear case is $95 per share based on slower sales growth and share buybacks.
Other Very Important Positions

Apple has a commanding lead over the other stocks on Goldman’s Very Important Positions list. While 82 of the funds have Apple as a top ten holding, the next closest is Actavis with 59 funds. Allergan lags close behind Actavis with 56 funds, while American Airlines is just barely ahead of Facebook. In sixth place is Medtronic, followed by Valeant Pharmaceuticals.

Here’s a look at Goldman’s full list of the 50 stocks that appear the most frequently in the biggest ten positions of the hedge funds they looked at:

Apple Hedge Funds
Download PDF
____________

y 2 dias despues la accion baja a $ 128.79 Change: -3.38 -2.56%

[Fenix]

The Most Important Commodity For Housing Is Screaming "Recession"
Tyler D.

While Crude Oil and Dr. Copper are often cited as economic indicators, as we noted previously, in fact Lumber prices are the most correlated with ISM and GDP of all industrial commodities (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer). That is a problem. Lumber prices are tumbling - breaking to 18-month lows today. We have seen this picture before, and it did not end well...

But it's different this time... becausae fundamentals mean absolutely sweet F.A. ... until of course they do.


The Biggest Problem For Greece Isn't Debt: It's This
Submitted by Tyler D
"Greeks consider taxes as theft," which, among other things, explains, as WSJ reports, at the end of 2014, Greeks owed their government about €76 billion in unpaid taxes accrued over decades; the government says only €9 billion of that can be recovered, with most of the rest lost to insolvency. Syriza is now making tax collection a top priority among the measures promises the new Troika, but as one government official warned, "the Greek economy would collapse if the government were to force these people to pay taxes." The bottom line is that "normally taxes are considered the price you have to pay for a just state, but this is not accepted by the Greek mentality," and perhaps with this latest round of deference to the EU overlords, it is clear why...

A Most Curious Disconnect
Ever since the great moderation started in the 1980s there had been a very close, almost perfect, correlation between the increase in the number of new homes sold in the US, and - logically - the median price of these homes. After all, builders would only invest money, labor and capital if they thought they would generate an appropriate return on their effort by selling to willing buyers. And then the first great financial crisis happened, and New Home Sales fell off a cliff and have yet to regain any of the pre-bubble euphoria.

Yet, oddly enough, while the actual number of new homes sold has barely budged during the so-called Recovery, the incentive for the builders, is right there, and as can been by median new home prices which continue to rise, and in fact hit an all time high as recently as December!

So what is going on here, and just how does this impact the prospects of the housing "recovery"?

And while we await the answer, we wonder: how much would household formation - that most important missing component of any true, not goal-seeked recovery - soar if all those millennials stuck in their parents basement, even burdened by tens of thousands of student loans, were able to buy new homes at a price that correlates to the actual number of sales, somewhere north of $100,000 a piece?

Perhaps, just perhaps, ordinary, 99%-type Americans just can't afford to buy "normal" homes anymore?

Of course for that to happen, one would have to strip away the impact of the latest, $13 trillion central-bank inflated global liquidity bubble. So let's just forget that whole line of thinking.

NoDebt:"Perhaps, just perhaps, ordinary, 99%-type Americans just can't afford to buy "normal" homes anymore?"

No point it servicing parts of the market that have no money- builders only build for the higher end now. What a "cheap" home? You're buying used. IF you can afford anything at all, and IF you can get approved for a mortgage.