por admin » Mié Sep 01, 2010 7:39 am
Las ventas escolares mejoraron ligeramente en Agosto con respecto al anio pasado.
BUSINESSAUGUST 31, 2010
Back-to-School Shopping Bust Heralds Holiday Woes
Shoppers Focused on Basics in August, Spending More Than Last Year but Far Less Than in 2008
By MIGUEL BUSTILLO
In an ominous sign for the holiday shopping season, American consumers behaved like skinflints in August, focusing on bare necessities and budget-priced deals as they made back-to-school purchases.
Shoppers in Memphis, Tenn., took advantage of a tax-free weekend in early August to buy school clothes.
Shoppers spent slightly more last month than they had the year before, according to MasterCard Advisors, which crunches data from credit cards, checks and cash payments to form sales estimates. But in nearly every category, the sales numbers were far short of 2008 levels, indicating the economic recovery remains sluggish.
Indeed, an index of consumer confidence released Tuesday by the Conference Board, a private research group, rose just 2.5 points in August, to 53.5.
"Expectations about future business and labor-market conditions have brightened somewhat, but overall, consumers remain apprehensive about the future," said Lynn Franco, director of the group's Consumer Research Center. "All in all, consumers are about as confident today as they were a year ago."
EXPERIENCE WSJ PROFESSIONALEditors' Deep Dive: Retailers Develop New Strategies
WOMEN'S WEAR DAILY
Retailers Need to Keep Inventories Lean and Fresh
SMARTMONEY.COM
Online Retailers Let Customers Have Move Say
THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER
J.C. Penney Gets Style
Access thousands of business sources not available on the free web. Learn More
And a Gallup Poll of consumers' self-reported spending in August showed that consumers estimated they spent $65 a day, less than in June and July and roughly the same as in August 2009. The estimates, released Tuesday, included restaurant and gasoline purchases as well as items like clothing.
Total clothing sales rose 2.6% in August from a year earlier, MasterCard said, but they were buoyed by an 8.4% jump in children's wear. Sales of men's clothing fell 1.9% and women's clothing fell 2.7%, suggesting that parents were forgoing purchases for themselves. Clothes sales were still off 2.3% compared with two years ago.
The story was similar in electronics, where sales rose a modest 2.3% from the year before but were down 9.9% from two years ago.
America Shops: U.S. Retail Sales
Since the start of the recession in 2007, U.S. consumer spending has taken a hit. Track monthly estimates by category.
View Interactive
More photos and interactive graphics
Luxury retailing saw a 1% sales drop in August and remained 13.8% below the same month in 2008, according to the MasterCard figures, which are set to be released Wednesday.
"Things are slightly better than in 2009, but we still have a ways to go to get back to where we were prior to the collapse," said MasterCard Advisors Vice President Michael McNamara. "And from this point forward, the sales comparisons to last year are going to get tougher."
John Long, of the retail consultancy Kurt Salmon Associates, noted that several retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc., reported rising inventory levels as part of their quarterly earnings in August, a sign that they may be forced to mark down merchandise more than anticipated in order to clear stocks.
"Initial back-to-school sales indicate that customers are shopping more closely to the event," said new Wal-Mart U.S. stores chief Bill Simon recently. As a result, the retailer focused on the most basic items, including socks and school uniforms.
"Everybody's looking, but very few are buying," said Wendy Dobson Tuesday as she and her two daughters walked through a mall in suburban Houston where jeweler Zale was advertising up to 60% off on some items and American Eagle was offering half off on a second pair of jeans.
But just a few feet away in the food court, friends Marcia Tysseling and Patty Smith-Hart announced that they were tired of frugality. "We deserve more things," said Ms. Smith-Hart, a psychiatric nurse. "Life is short and stressful."
In numerous states, including Texas and Florida, the August sales figures benefitted from sales-tax holidays. But retail analysts stressed that consumers were also starting to shop again for basic items such as new sneakers, as well as budget-priced novelties like "jeggings," a melding of leggings and skinny jeans that is popular with teenage girls and younger women.
Customer traffic at malls in August was also better than some had predicted. Forecaster ShopperTrak initially estimated that visits would drop 1.4% in August but said that trends had improved and it now expected final traffic figures for August to decline less.
Some retail analysts believe unusually high temperatures during the month may have led some consumers to put off buying sweaters and other fall merchandise. That might help sales in September.
"We're in a very, very difficult environment," Roger Markfield, vice chairman of American Eagle Outfitters Inc., said in a conference call last week, but he also noted that he is "pleased that our denim unit sales are doing extremely well."
A fuller portrait of August sales is likely to emerge Thursday, when many retail chains, including Target Corp., Macy's Inc. and Costco Wholesale Corp., will report their monthly figures. But few are expecting a substantial increase: Thomson Reuters predicts its index of 28 retail chains will rise 2.5%.
The back-to-school shopping season is second in importance only to the holidays for American retailers and often serves as a harbinger. If so, retail experts predict increased price competition among top store chains this Christmas, which will be forced to fight one another for larger pieces of a still-shrunken spending pie.