Jueves 21/11/13 PMI manufacturero

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Abercrombie reporto perdidas, menores ventas.

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La actividade conomica de Europa se desacelera.

Ag down 19.79

Au down 1,240

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A fin de anio el Tesoro vendera mas aciones de GM.

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Los seguros de desempleo bajaron en 21,000.

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Hoy sera la confirmacion de Yellen.

Euro up 1.3462

+52

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Expansión sector fabril China se ralentiza en nov, debilita perspectivas trimestrales
jueves 21 de noviembre de 2013 06:15 GYT
Imprimir[-] Texto [+] PEKIN (Reuters) - La actividad en el sector fabril de China creció a un ritmo más débil en noviembre ante una contracción en los nuevos pedidos de exportación, mostró el jueves un sondeo preliminar, lo que refuerza las expectativas de que la economía podría perder cierto vigor en el cuarto trimestre en momentos en que Pekín cambia su enfoque a una reforma estructural.
La lectura provisional del índice compuesto de gerentes de compras (PMI, por su sigla en inglés) elaborado por Markit/ HSBC, el indicador más temprano del estado de la economía china en el mes, cayó a 50,4 desde la lectura final de octubre de 50,9.

Sin embargo, se mantuvo por cuarto mes consecutivo sobre la línea de 50 que divide la expansión de la contracción, lo que indica que el Gobierno ha logrado la estabilidad que buscaba para impulsar reformas.

"Creo que en general esto aún refleja una visión moderadamente optimista sobre la economía de China. Lo más importante es que China se centrará en las reformas en los próximos años", dijo Zhou Hao, economista de ANZ en Shanghái.

"Creo que en el corto plazo, a partir de ahora hasta el próximo año, el crecimiento económico seguirá viendo una inclinación hacia la baja, ya que las reformas probablemente golpearán a algunas industrias y sectores", agregó.

Los dirigentes de China dieron a conocer el conjunto más audaz de reformas económicas y sociales en casi tres décadas después de un conclave de cuatro días que finalizó la semana pasada. Se espera que las reformas impulsen un nuevo crecimiento en la segunda economía más grande del mundo.

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Las ganancias de SABMIller mejoran gracias a los mercados emergentes.

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Golman ve caidas de precios para el oro, iron ore, soybeans y cobre del orden del 15% para el proximo anio.

El riesgo es mas alto para el iron ore. Seran lso precios mas bajos desde el 2010 para los commodities mencionados.
Goldman Sees at Least 15% Losses for Gold, Iron Ore
By Phoebe Sedgman - Nov 21, 2013 8:58 AM ET

Daniel Acker/Bloomberg Soybeans are seen by Goldman at $9.50 a bushel by the end of 2014, from $12.7775 in Chicago today, while corn will retreat to $3.75 a bushel from $4.255. Copper will drop to $6,200 a ton from $6,989.25 on the London Metal Exchange.
Gold, iron ore, soybeans and copper will probably drop at least 15 percent next year as commodities face increased downside risks even as economic growth in the U.S. accelerates, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The risks are strongest for iron ore and follow increases in supplies, analysts including Jeffrey Currie wrote in a report yesterday that identified the New York-based bank’s top 10 market themes for the coming year. Price pressures will mostly become visible later in 2014, the analysts wrote, forecasting that bullion, copper and soybeans will decline to the lowest levels since 2010.

Commodities tracked by the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index lost 4.7 percent this year, led by corn as supplies surged, and precious metals on expectations the Federal Reserve will taper stimulus. Goldman described the forecast losses for iron ore, gold, soybeans and copper as significant, and said that they could help weaken currencies in producing countries, including the Australian dollar and South African rand.

“Last year, we pointed to the ongoing shift in our commodity views, ultimately towards downside price risk,” the analysts including Currie wrote. “The impact of supply responses to the period of extraordinary price pressure continues to flow through the system.”

Gold, which was at $1,244.80 an ounce on the Comex at 8:51 a.m. in New York, will drop $1,050 at the end of next year, Goldman said in the report, restating an earlier forecast. Currie said last month that gold is a “slam dunk” sell for next year as the U.S. economy extends its recovery.

Annual Drop
Bullion is headed for the first drop since 2000 this year as investors cut holdings. Futures lost as much as 2.6 percent yesterday after the Fed signaled that tapering may start in the months ahead, according to minutes from its October meeting. Lower gold prices would alleviate concern about inflation and current account deficits in emerging markets such as Turkey and India, it said.

Soybeans are seen by Goldman at $9.50 a bushel by the end of 2014, from $12.845 in Chicago today, while corn will retreat to $3.75 a bushel from $4.2725. Copper will drop to $6,200 a ton from $6,968 on the London Metal Exchange.

A global seaborne iron ore surplus will emerge next year as supply increases over the second and third quarters, Goldman Sachs said in a separate report last month. Prices will average $108 a ton in 2014, it said in the Oct. 18 note. The raw material averaged $135 this year at Tianjin port in China.

While downside risks for energy prices will increase next year, the outlook is more stable than for iron ore, gold and copper, Goldman said in yesterday’s report. Brent crude is seen at $105 a barrel at the end of 2014 from $108.31 today.

U.S. Recovery
“We expect the long-awaited shift towards above-trend growth in the U.S. finally to occur, spurred by an acceleration in private consumption and business investment,” the Goldman analysts wrote yesterday. At the Fed, “we expect a gradual tapering in bond purchases to begin, most likely in March.”

The U.S. economy may expand 2.6 percent in 2014 from 1.7 percent growth this year, according to the median of analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Retail sales climbed in October by the most in three months, data showed yesterday.

In China, the largest consumer of everything from iron ore to copper, economic growth is seen as stable this year after a slowdown in mid-2013 reversed, Goldman said. The preliminary reading released today of a Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index for November was 50.4, the first decline in four months for the gauge from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics.

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VIX up 13.40

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SCCO +0.31%

BVN -0.24%

EPU -0.03%

BAP -0.24%

CPAC +0.18%

AAPL +0.78%

FAS +1.11%

EDC -1.27%

USO +1.04%

C -0.3%

BAC +0.59%

RIO +0.15%

F +0.65%

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Au down 1,241

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El surplus de Grecia se duplica.

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La demanda de gasolina subio en la temporada.

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+36.28

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Santander vendera su unidad de bienes raices.

+50.41