Miercoles 08/09/10 Beige Book

[admin]

Copper September 08,07:18
Bid/Ask 3.4419 - 3.4464
Change +0.0009 +0.03%
Low/High 3.4233 - 3.5108
Charts

Nickel September 08,07:18
Bid/Ask 10.1310 - 10.1763
Change +0.1701 +1.71%
Low/High 9.8928 - 10.2217
Charts

Aluminum September 08,07:19
Bid/Ask 0.9522 - 0.9567
Change -0.0023 -0.24%
Low/High 0.9499 - 0.9680
Charts

Zinc September 08,07:15
Bid/Ask 0.9748 - 0.9794
Change +0.0045 +0.47%
Low/High 0.9590 - 0.9862
Charts

Lead September 08,07:18
Bid/Ask 0.9730 - 0.9775
Change +0.0009 +0.09%
Low/High 0.9630 - 0.9857

[admin]

Los republicanso hacen un llamado a Obama para que se congelen todos los impuestos por dos anios.

Au up 1,261, futures cu up 3.4845

Los futures del Dow Jones 40 puntos al alza.

Oil down 73.96 pero debe mejorar

Libor igual 0.29%

Yields 10 ajiso (no riesgo) 2.61%

Europa al alza, el Asia cerro en rojo.

[admin]

Esta noticia esta ayudando a los futures esta maniana

La subasta de bonos del gobierno de Portugal se encontro con una fuerte demanda a pesar de las renovadas tensiones en el mercado de bonos soberanos de la zona euro.

Portugal vendio $1,32 billones en bonos a 11 anios y 3 anios. La demanda fue el doble de lo que se ofrecio.

Espania saldra al mercado la proxima semana.

Portugal Auction Meets Strong Demand
By NICK ANDREWS
LONDON—Portugal's government bond auction on Wednesday met strong demand despite renewed tensions in the euro-zone government bond markets.

The country's Public Debt Management Agency said it raised €1.04 billion ($1.32 billion) in an auction, selling ¤378 million in 11-year bonds and ¤661 million in three-year bonds on Wednesday. The agency said there was demand for more than twice the amount available.

The difference between Portuguese and German 10-year bond yields, known as the spread, was unchanged immediately after the auction results were announced.

However, the Portuguese bond auctions have added another layer of stress on so-called "peripheral" euro-zone bonds, said David Schnautz, rates strategist at Commerzbank.

Euro-zone peripheral bond yield spreads, the difference between the government bond yields of Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain and Italy versus Germany, have widened in the last two days, especially in the first three of those countries.

A Wall Street Journal report brought fresh doubt about Europe's banking stress-test results, helping to reverse the bond-market selloff that followed last week's better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payroll data.

Furthermore, a combination of factors has kept the markets in 'risk-aversion mode' this week, said BNP Paribas strategist, Matteo Regesta. The Irish government announced Tuesday that it was extending guarantees to the nation's banks, while the National Bank of Greece, the best-capitalized bank in Greece, said it was planning to raise fresh capital via a rights issue.

The actual extension of the Irish government guarantees was only a minor feature, said Mr. Schnautz, and brings government support into line with other euro-zone countries. But there is an expectation that Ireland's banking situation will be no better by year-end and further extensions will be needed.

Moreover, banking-sector weakness is not the only concern. The economic outlook for the euro-zone economy is one of low inflation and anemic growth, added Mr. Regesta. Such a combination means governments can neither inflate away their debt woes nor, in a low-growth environment, will tax receipts rise significantly to make a greater contribution to reducing the debt burden.

Political uncertainties are also adding to euro-zone weakness, said Mr. Regesta, with Belgium's political leaders unable to come to a coalition agreement after two months of negotiations and the ruling coalition breaking apart in Italy.

Rising political tensions in Belgium are having a negative impact and political issues are also on the rise in stronger countries such as France and even the Netherlands.

A substantial amount of bond issuance is scheduled for September and next week's Spanish auctions could prove to be a challenging operation against this backdrop, added Mr. Schnautz.

—The Associated Press contributed to this article.

[admin]

+27

Futures cu up 3.4805

[admin]

BP +3.04%

EDC +2.89%

FAS +1.38%

SLB +1.28%

C +0.65%

ACAS +0.92%

SLW +0.79%

EGO +0.47%

[admin]

Oil down 73.76

Euro up 1.2698

+25

[bachelor]

y los reportes de esta mañana? que opinas

[admin]

Solo tenemos el credito del consumidor y el Beige Book de el Fed que dira que la economia no esta creciendo tanto.

Las ventas de tiendas bajaron 0.4% en la ultima semana de Setiembre y las solicitudes de hipotecas subieron 6.3% las de refinanciacion bajaron 3.1%. Pero lo mas importantes son los dos indicadores mencionados que seran en la tarde.

El oro pasa a la baja 1,258.70, oil down 73.97

[admin]

+26

[admin]

Oil down 74.05

[admin]

TTWO +0.96%

NG +1.57% y ayer subio mas del 2%

EDC +3%

FAS +1.53%

[admin]

Whitney dice que la banca despedira 80,000 empleados.

[admin]

BP dijo que no fue un solo factor el que causo el derrame de petroleo.

[admin]

UBS bullish acerca de AAPL, sus acciones +0.70%

Se espera que Chile suba sus intereses.

+11

[admin]

Otra mirada al milagro Aleman

El gobierno Aleman ha recortado el gasto del gobierno y el crecimiento de su economia se ve mas inteligente. Esta no es la primera vez que las politicas a favor del mercado sacan a la nacion de la crisis.

Al inicio del verano Soros y economistas Keynesian criticaron la estricta disciplina fiscal de Alemania. Sin embargo el PBI real del pasi crecio un robusto 9% en el segundo trimestre (anualizado), mientras US subia a un anemico 1.6%. Es que ahora Alemania es el modelo de la recuperacion?

El ministro de finanzas Aleman justifico el recorte del gasto citando el peligro de los deficits y la inflacion, los cuales tienen sus raices en la historia Alemania del siglo pasado. El se estaba refiriendo probablemente a la destructiva hiperinflacion de 1920.

Pero tambien podria haber estado refiriendose a otro episodio relevante de la historia de esa nacion. hace 60 anios Alemania se convirtio en el modelo de la recuperacion de una crisis completamente diferente. Despues de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, las ciudades Alemanas,las fabricas y las carreteras quedaron destruidas. La escasez de comida, agua y vivienda amenazaban seriamente la supervivencia de esa nacion.

Desafortunamente, la ocupacion de los politicos perpetuaron la escasez reteniendo el control de precios impuestos por los Nazis despues de la guerra. Los consumidores y los negocios batallaron contra el regimen burocratico de racionamiento donde el economista Aleman Ludwig Erhard describio como l a guerra de papel. El mercado negro florecio.

El partido Social Democratico queria continuar con los controles y el racionamiento, y algunos asesores Americanos estaban de acuerdo particularmente John Kenneth Galbraith.

Entre 1950 y 1960 la Economia de West Germany crecio mas del doble, creciendo a un ritmo de 8% al anio.

Afortunadamente para los Alemanes comunes y corrientes, Erhard quien estuvo a cargo de la economia pensaba de otra manera. La reforma de la moneda que el ayudo a diseniar para reemplazar al Reichmark con el nuevo Deustche mark, el tambien abolio todos los controles de precios y el racionamiento, sin la autorizacion de los aliados. El mas tarde le contesto a su commander cuando este le dijo que estaba cometiendo un gran error: si eso es lo mismo que me dicen mis asesores.

Pero no fue un error. En las siguientes semanas Erhard removio todos los controles de precios, los controles de salarios, Los efectos de la abolicion de los controles fue dramatico.

La escasez termino, los mercados negros desaparecieron, y Alemania empezo su recuperacion. Comprar y vender con los marcos Deustche reemplazaron el intercambio de mercaderia (barter) Los observadores remarcaron que de la noche a la maniana las fabricas empezaron a funcionar, los camiones de entrega de mercaderia se amontonaban en las calles, y el ruido de la construccion se oia por todas partes.

El remarcable exito de las reformas fueron irreversibles. Pocos meses despues, los Franceses hicieron lo mismo. Las autoridades aliadas rebajaron los impuestos sustancialmente.

Entre Junio y Diciembre de 1948, la produccion industrial en las tres zonas de Western Germany se incrementaron en 50%. En Mayo de 1949 las tres zonas se convertirian en la Federal Republic of Germany, llamada comunmente West Germany, mientras que la del este se quedo ante la dominacion de la Union Sovietica como la German Democratic Republic.

El crecimiento continuo durante el gobierno con politicas amigables a los libres mercados. Erhar fue nombrado Ministro de Economia entre 1949 y 1963. West Germany no solo dejo a East Germany en el suelo si no que crecio mas que Francia e Inglaterra a pesar de la ayuda que recibieron esos dos paises del plan Marshall. Esa fue la era del milagro economico.

Entre 1950 y 1960 West Germany aumento su produccion a mas del doble, crecio por toda la decada a un ritmo compuesto de casi 8% al anio. Gracias a su politica economica superior.

Erhard se convirtio en primer ministro en 1963. El fue el creador del milagro economico.

las ideas de Erdhard eran la de los economistas de libres mercados de la Universidad de Freiburg, particulamente de Walter Euken, quien desarrollo una filosifa liberal conocida como Ordoliberalism. Mas adelante Keynes eclipsaria todas esas ideas.
Desgraciadamente el estado de beneficencia lo reemplazo, la economia bajo su crecimiento. Entre 1960 a 1973 el crecimiento ha sido la mitad de lo que fue en los 50s y desde 1973 a 1989 ha crecido solamente 2% al anio.

El nuevo interes en el Ordoliberalism es lo mejor que le pueda pasar a Alemania.

La Alemania de hoy dia puede bsucar su modelo economico en la Alemania de hace 60 anios.


Mr. White is professor of economics at George Mason University. This op-ed draws on his forthcoming book, "The Clash of Economic Ideas."


The German Miracle: Another Look
Germany has cut government spending and its economy is growing smartly. It's not the first time that market-friendly policies have led the nation out of crisis

By LAWRENCE H. WHITE
Earlier this summer George Soros and some leading Keynesian economists criticized what they regarded as Germany's overly strict fiscal discipline. Yet Germany's real output expanded at a robust 9% annual rate in the second quarter, while the U.S. economy grew at an anemic 1.6% rate. So is Germany now a role model for how to recover?

In a June op-ed, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble justified his government's decision to cut spending, citing "aversion to deficits and inflationary fears, which have their roots in German history in the past century." He was presumably making a reference to the destructive hyperinflation of the 1920s.

Yet Mr. Schäuble might have cited another relevant episode from his nation's history. Sixty-two years ago Germany became a role model for recovery from a very different crisis. In the aftermath of World War II, Germany's cities, factories and railroads lay in ruins. Severe shortages of food, fuel, water and housing posed challenges to sheer survival.

Unfortunately, occupation policy makers actually perpetuated the shortages by retaining the price controls the Nazi government had imposed before and during the war. Consumers and businessmen battled against the bureaucratic regime of controls and rationing in what the German economist Ludwig Erhard described as Der Papierkrieg—the paper war. Black markets were pervasive.

Germany's new Social Democratic Party wanted to continue the controls and rationing, and some American advisers agreed, particularly John Kenneth Galbraith. Galbraith, an official of the U.S. State Department overseeing economic policy for occupied Germany and Japan, had been the U.S. price-control czar from 1941-1943; he completely dismissed the idea of reviving the German economy through decontrol.


A 1950s Volkswagen plant. Between 1950 and 1960 the West German economy's real output more than doubled, growing at a compound annual rate of nearly 8% per year.
.Fortunately for ordinary Germans, Erhard—who became director of the economic administration for the U.K.-U.S. occupation Bizone in April 1948—thought otherwise. A currency reform that he helped to design was slated to replace the feeble old Reichsmark with the new Deutsche mark in all three Western zones on June 20. Without approval from the Allied military command, Erhard used the occasion to issue a sweeping decree abolishing most of the price controls and rationing directives. He later told friends that the American commander, Gen. Lucius Clay, phoned him when he heard about the decree and said: "Professor Erhard, my advisers tell me that you are making a big mistake." Erhard replied, "So my advisers also tell me."

It was not a big mistake. In the following weeks Erhard removed most of the Bizone's remaining price controls, wage controls, allocation edicts and rationing directives. The effects of decontrol were dramatic.

The shortages ended, black markets disappeared, and Germany's recovery began. Buying and selling with Deutsche marks replaced barter. Observers remarked that almost overnight the factories began to belch smoke, delivery trucks crowded the streets, and the noise of construction crews clattered throughout the cities.

The remarkable success of the reforms made them irreversible. A few months later the French zone followed suit. The Allied authorities went on to lower tax rates substantially.

Between June and December of 1948, industrial production in the three Western zones increased by an astounding 50%. In May 1949 the three zones were merged to form the Federal Republic of Germany, commonly called West Germany, while East Germany remained under Soviet domination as the German Democratic Republic.

Growth continued under the market-friendly policies of the new West German government. Erhard became the Minister of Economic Affairs, serving under Chancellor Konrad Adenauer from 1949 to 1963. The West German economy not only left East Germany's in the dust, it outgrew France's and the United Kingdom's despite receiving much less Marshall Plan aid. This was the era of the Wirtschaftswunder or "economic miracle."

Between 1950 and 1960 the West German economy's real output more than doubled, growing for a decade at a compound annual rate of nearly 8% per year. Econometricians who have tried to parse the various factors contributing to this remarkable record found that not all of it can be attributed to a growing labor force and investment flows, or to "catching up" from a low initial level of output. A large chunk of the period's growth is explained by superior economic policy.

Erhard succeeded Adenauer in 1963 and served as chancellor for three years. His electoral success was an endorsement of the policies that had unleashed the Wirtschaftswunder.

Erhard drew his ideas from free-market economists centered at the University of Freiburg, particularly Walter Eucken, who developed a classical liberal philosophy known as Ordoliberalism (named after ORDO, the academic journal where the economists published their ideas). Interest in Ordoliberal ideas waned in Germany after 1963, eclipsed by interest in Keynesian economics. The welfare state grew. The economy became clogged with interest-group policies. Not coincidentally, economic growth also waned. From 1960 to 1973 growth was about half as great as it had been in the 1950s, and during the period from 1973 to 1989 it was halved again to only 2% per year.

Interest in Ordoliberalism began to revive among academics in the 1970s and 1980s, and it continues to have an institutional presence in Freiburg at the university and at the Walter Eucken Institute. Greater interest among politicians might be the best thing for reviving German economic growth over the long term.

If Mr. Schäuble is sincere when he says that, by comparison with U.S. policy makers, "we take the longer view and are, therefore, more preoccupied with the implications of excessive deficits and the dangers of high inflation," he can find a useful model in the policies of his predecessor 60 years ago.

Mr. White is professor of economics at George Mason University. This op-ed draws on his forthcoming book, "The Clash of Economic Ideas."