01/10/10 Empezamos el cuarto trimestre!!

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Eventos economicos

Viernes

Importantes indicadores economicos esta maniana:

Ventas de autos
Ingreso personal
Sentimiento del consumidor
ISM manufacturero
Gasto en construccion

Motor Vehicle Sales


Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET


Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET


ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET


Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET

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Todos los ojos en el ingreso personal y el consumo excluyendo alimentos y energia, dato muy importante para el Fed que espera que aumente 0.1%

El sentimiento del consumidor de Michigan se espera que caiga a 67 de 68.9.

El ISM manufacturero se espera que caiga a 54 de 56.3 en Agosto.

On Deck Friday: ISM, Consumption, Spending Data
By Matt Phillips
8:30 a.m. — Personal income and outlays data arrives. All eyes will be on the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy prices, an inflation gauge closely watched by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to rise 0.1%.
9:55 a.m. — Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for September is due. The sentiment index is expected to fall to 67 from 68.9.
10 a.m. — The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index for September arrives. It’s expected to fall to 54, from 56.3 in August.

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El indice manufacturero de China sube a 53.8 indicando que ese pais sigue creciendo.

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El Tesoro vendio 5% de su participacion en Citi o $5.9 billones en las ultimas cinco semanas.

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Los precios del consumidor en Japon bajan 1%. Ese pais nunca va a salir de la deflation.

Yen up 83.45

Australia -0.31%, el Nikkei +0.80%.

Euro up 1.3660

Los futures del Dow Jones 24 puntos al alza.

Korea +0.25%

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Oil up 80.07, Au down 1,309.10, futures cu up 3.6730 Ag up.

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WSJ
Ex guerrillera en curso de obtener el poder en Brasil

Dilma Rousseff era una burograta poco conocida hsata que el presidente Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva la eligio como su sucesora. Ahora la economista de 62 anios esta por convertirse en la primera presidente mujer de Brasil.

Ex-Guerrilla on Cusp of Power in Brazil
Dilma Rousseff was a little-known bureaucrat until President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva tapped her as his successor. Now, the 62-year-old economist is poised to become Brazil's first female president.

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Obama dice que sera flexible con McDonald's referente al su plan de salud. McDonald's habia dicho que podria eliminar el seguro de salud para los empleados que trabajan por hora debido al alza de los costos.

White House Pledges Flexibility on McDonald's Health Plan
The Obama administration said its top health official will "exercise her discretion" in enforcing a new health-law requirement, a move that could prevent McDonald's and other employers from disrupting their health-care policies for hourly workers.

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Es oficial, Enmanuel, la mano derecha de Obama lo abandona, se va de su puesto para convertirse en alcalde de Chicago. Otro mas que abandona el buque que se hunde.

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La ausencia de respuesta por parte de China a las posibles sanciones que el Congreso Americano ha anunciado en contra de ese pais por no fortalecer su moneda indican que ese pais quiere minimizar el conflicto.

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El dolar logra cambiar de rumbo ante las buenas noticias de la economia

El dolar avanzo mas que en los ultimos tres dias, aunque disminuyo frente al yen y el euro despues de que los datos economicos lograron disipar las precupaciones de que el Fed tendria que actuar para ayudar a la economia.

El euro podria haber tocado su punto mas alto.

Aunque el sentimiento antidolar todavia existe, la verdadera prueba seran las cifras del empleo la proxima semana.

Dollar Reverses Course on Upbeat U.S. Data
By ANDREW J. JOHNSON
NEW YORK—The dollar put in its first broad advance in three days, though it weakened slightly against the euro and yen, after U.S. economic data eased fears that the Federal Reserve would need to kick start the sluggish economy.

Second-quarter gross domestic product data, weekly jobless claims and a closely watched survey of Chicago-area purchasing managers all gave investors heart that the economy may be regaining some steam.

Based on recent statements from the Federal Reserve and a stream of negative U.S. data, an additional round of asset-purchasing to stimulate the economy seemed likely before year end. More monetary easing is seen as negative for the dollar because U.S. interest rates would remain low for a longer period, thus making dollar-denominated assets less attractive to investors.

Thursday's encouraging data give rise to the possibility "that Fed policy easing is not yet a done deal," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington.

Still, next week's U.S. unemployment report for September will be a much bigger test for gauging the likelihood of added federal stimulus, analysts said.

ECB's Euro Stance: Admirable if Untenable
.By late afternoon in New York, the ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, had inched up to 78.762 from 78.759 late Wednesday. Among the major currencies, the euro move to $1.3634 from $1.3629. The dollar weakened to 83.48 yen from 83.65 yen. The euro weakened to 113.82 yen from 114.07 yen. The U.K. pound weakened to $1.5711 from $1.5784. The dollar strengthened to 0.9826 Swiss franc from 0.9770 franc.

The dollar weakened early. The euro hit as high as $1.3683. But then Moody's downgraded Spain by one notch to Aa1 and the bailout bill for Anglo Irish Bank came in at the high side of estimates.

Still, recent antidollar sentiment remains strong, and troubles in countries such as Ireland, Spain and Portugal have done little to dent the euro's rise. In the past three months, the common currency has come roaring back from a four-year low of less than $1.19 in June. The euro is up roughly 12% in the third quarter, the best quarterly performance since 2002, according to Reuters data. It is still down about 5% versus the dollar since the beginning of 2010.

"The euro may be close to reaching its limits," said Vassili Serebriakov, foreign-exchange strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. Gains will be harder from here, he said.

The dollar also hit 83.17 yen, the lowest since Japan spent roughly $20 billion on Sept. 15 to tamp down its currency. Thursday was the final day of the first half of the Japanese fiscal year. The yen historically strengthens on that day as Japanese exporters repatriate funds to bolster their companies' balance sheets.

The Japanese government of Prime Minister Naoto Kan "will take decisive steps to correct the yen's strength," said Mitsuru Sakurai, a recently appointed senior vice finance minister, speaking at a regular news conference. The recent move to weaken the Japanese currency—the Finance Ministry's first intervention in more than six years—came with the dollar at a 15-year low of 82.87 yen. There were no signs of more Japanese government actions to weaken the yen, analysts said.

Brazil's currency strengthened against the dollar, cruising through a key test as the central bank published a quarterly inflation report that played down market concerns about rising prices. The Brazilian real strengthened to 1.6930 reals to the dollar on the BM&FBovespa exchange, the strongest point in more than two years. The last time the real closed below 1.70 reals to the dollar was Sept. 3, 2008, days before the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings.

Some investors waited anxiously to see whether that would trigger any actions from the federal government, which has been increasingly vehement in expressing concern about the strength of the real. The central bank held one of its auctions to buy dollars, at a rate of 1.6969 reals, but the government was otherwise quiet.

The yuan weakened against the U.S. dollar for the first time in three weeks as China's central bank guided its currency lower following passage of a bill by U.S. House of Representatives lawmakers targeting Beijing's currency policy and cheap exports.

On the over-the-counter market, the dollar moved to 6.6912 yuan from Wednesday's close of 6.6868 yuan, after ranging from 6.6810 yuan, the lowest intraday level since the yuan began trading regularly in 1994, and 6.6965 yuan.

The Australian dollar, tied closely to the pace of Chinese-led global economic growth and commodities that support that activity, fell from its roughly two-year highs to move to $0.9637.

—Joy C. Shaw in Shanghai, Matthew Cowley in Sao Paolo and Takashi Nakamichi in Tokyo contributed to this article.

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Ventas record, yields de los bonos del gobierno Americano

El Tesoro vendio la cantidad record de $2.3 trillones de notas y bonos en el anio fiscal que termino el Jueves. concluyendo con una semana en la que ofrecio $100 billones de dos, cinco y siete anios de notas (bonos) a los intereses mas bajos de su historia.

La voracidad de la demanda fue notable por parte de los inversionistas de todos los tipos, incluyendo amas de casas Japonesas, hedge funds de London, bancos centrales y consumidores ameircanos. Esto por lo menos hasta el momento ha callado a los que cuestionan si la deuda americana es sostenible asi como su deficit.


Record Sales, Yields for Treasury
By MIN ZENG
The U.S. Treasury sold a record $2.3 trillion of notes and bonds in the fiscal year ended Thursday, concluding with a week in which it offered $100 billion in two-, five- and seven-year notes at the lowest yields ever.

The market easily absorbed it all because of voracious demand from investors of all stripes, including Japanese housewives, London-based hedge funds, foreign central banks and U.S. consumers. That, at least for now, has muted warnings by some market participants about the sustainability of the U.S. deficit.

The 10-year note's yield, a benchmark for consumer and corporate borrowings, rose Thursday to 2.519%, though it is still down sharply from this year's peak of 4.017% in early April. It price fell 4/32. Bond yields move inversely to prices. The two-year note rose 2/32 to yield 0.430%.

"The U.S. … remains more than able to tap the world's balance sheet for funding," said Tony Crescenzi, portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, Calif., which holds the world's largest bond fund.

Lower rates have benefited U.S. consumers and businesses. Mortgage rates have hit record lows and many companies, including IBM and Microsoft, sold debt in recent months with the lowest interest rates on record.

Mr. Crescenzi said this can't last forever because investors eventually will lose faith—and patience—with deeply indebted borrowers. But he added that demand for Treasury sales is likely to stay robust in coming weeks because the U.S. still is considered a global benchmark for safe investments.

Demand for Treasurys has risen as many investors, worrying about the economic outlook and sovereign-debt problems in the euro zone, sought safety in low-risk U.S. government debt. The Treasury also cut sizes for shorter-dated notes supply in recent months, making the debt easier for more investors to buy.

In recent weeks, Treasury auctions got an extra boost as speculation grew that the Federal Reserve may step up government-debt purchases to prevent the economy from slipping back to recession.

The buzz on the possibility for what is called quantitative easing brought another buyer into the Treasury auctions: foreign central banks. The Fed's stimulus is equivalent to printing more dollars, eroding the value of the U.S. currency and leading many foreign central banks to buy greenbacks to keep international trade flowing.

Japan sold more than two trillion yen ($23.94 billion) in mid-September to push down the currency from a 15-year high against the dollar. Japan then used the dollars it received for yen and bought Treasurys.

For this year through Sept. 22, Treasurys held in custody on behalf of foreign official accounts have increased by $277 billion to a record of $2.463 trillion, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

"With the possibility of the Fed stepping in to buy additional U.S. Treasurys, demand for these securities by the market should remain strong, especially if the size of a possible [quantitative-easing] program is large enough that it forces the Fed to search the market for investors willing to sell," said Joseph Leary, U.S. interest-rate strategist at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. Mr. Leary added, the Fed may "crowd out private-sector demand" to some degree. "We think that private-sector demand, however, will remain strong if the Fed does not step in," he added.

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Se siguen peleando por la deuda americana. No ganan absolutamente nada de intereses, pero el dinero esta seguro.

[admin]

El Dow Jones sube 1,014.03 puntos este trimestre o 10.37% a 10,788.05.

Este mes el DJ subio 773.33 puntos o 7.72%
Este es el mejor Setiembre desde 1939 cuando subio 13.49%
En el anio ha subido 3.45%

Data Points: U.S. Markets

By MarketBeat Staff
Dow Industrials, up 1014.03 points this quarter, or 10.37% to 10788.05.

Largest quarter point and percent gain since the third quarter 2009.
This month, it is up 773.33 points, or 7.72%.
This is its best September month since 1939 when it rose 13.49%.
Today, it fell 47.23 points, or 0.44%.
Year-to-date, it is up 3.45%.
Nasdaq Composite, up 259.38 points this quarter, or 12.30% to 2368.62.

Biggest quarterly point and percent gain since the third quarter 2009.
This month, it is up 254.59 points, or 12.04%.
Today, it is down 7.94 points, or 0.33%.
Year-to-date, it is up 4.38%.
S&P 500, up 110.49 points this quarter, or 10.72% to 1141.20.

Biggest quarter percent gain since the third quarter 2009.
This month, it is up 91.87 points, or 8.76%.
Today, it fell 3.53 points, or 0.31%.
Year-to-date, it is up 2.34%.

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El petroleo (Nymex) entrega Noviembre subio 5.74% en el trimestre a $79.97
Este mes ha subido 11.19%, hoy subio 2.71%, en el anio ha subido 0.77%

Data Points: Energy

By MarketBeat Staff
Nymex crude for November delivery gained $4.34 per barrel this quarter, or 5.74% to $79.97.

Largest quarterly percentage gained since the fourth quarter 2009.
This month, it is up $8.05, or 11.19%.
Largest monthly point and percentage gained since May 2009.
Today, it is up $2.11, or 2.71%.
Year-to-date, it is up 0.77%.
Nymex natural gas for November delivery fell 74.40 cents per million BTU’s this quarter, or 16.12% to $3.872.

This month, it is up 5.60 cents or 1.47%.
Today, it is down 9.0 cents or 2.27%.
Year-to-date, it is down 30.51%.