Martes 05/10/10 ISM no manufacturero

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Eventos economicos

Martes

Ventas de tiendas retail
Libro rojo
ISM no manufacturero
Subasta de bonos

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET


Redbook
8:55 AM ET


ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET


4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

[admin]

EL ISM a las 10:00 se espera que sea 51.7 eso es ligeramente mas alto que el 51.5 de Agosto.

Despues del cierre YUM Brands reporta utilidades, se espera 72 cets y $2.87 en ventas.

On Deck Tuesday: Yum! Earnings, ISM Services Index.
By Matt Phillips

Associated PressThere won’t be much in the way of exciting earnings or economic reports tomorrow.

At 10 a.m. the Institute for Supply Management releases its services index for September. It’s expected to arrive at 51.7. (Above 50 indicates growth.) That would be up slightly from the 51.5 reading registered in August. Keep an eye on the employment subindex.
After the close, Yum Brands reports earnings. Consensus is for 72 cents in EPS on $2.87 billion in revenue. All eyes will be on the unit’s important China division.

[admin]

Australia -0.83%, el Hang seng +0.03%. Korea -0.21%,

Los futures del Dow Jones 3 puntos al alza.

Euro down 1.3645, yend own 83.45

Yields down 2.47%

[admin]

38.47% vs 37.63% a las 8:47 p.m. con el 72.83% de los votos contados. Cualquier cosa puede pasar. Me imagino que en el Peru no dicen como aca que distritos faltan contar.

[admin]

Japon espera la decision de su banco central, el yen baja en anticipacion a las medidas que ayudaran a controlar el alza del yen (como todos los demas paises del mundo)

El Nikkei -0.1%

[jonibol]

A las 10 pm, la diferencia es de 0,8 puntos... tatataaaaa...!!!

[admin]

Preocupante!!!!



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Durante el ultimo anio y medio el stock market ha imitado el comportamietno de 1937. Esta semana corresponde a mediados de Agosto de 1937 cuando el acumulado efecto de los masivos aumentos de impuestos a las corporaciones, severo ajuste de politica monetaria y agresivo ataque a las corporaciones por parte de la administracion Roosevelt puso a la economia al punto de la "depresion dentro de la depresion". De alli en adelante el stock market sufrio el segundo mas fuerte bear market de la historia. (otro democrata)

Menos mal, no estamos repitiendo los errores de 1937. Pero el Congreso y Obama estan coqueteando peligrosamente con uno de ellos al dejar expirar los recortes de impuestos para todos los Americanos. Lo que es peor es que estamos a punto de cometer la madre de todos los errores, el error no cometido en 1937 pero en 1930 - el que inicio la Gran Depresion. Estamos a punto de hacer resucitar la ley anti tratados de libre comercio de 1930 el tratado Smooth-Hayle Tariff Act.

En primer lugar, si los recortes de impuestos expiran a final de anio, cada uno de los americanos llevara a sus casas menos dinero, la reduccion promedio sera del 3.3%. Saca la cuenta 94% de los ingresos va al consumo y el consumo es el 70% del PBI (GDP) Dejando todo lo demas igual, si los recortes de Bush expiran, es un 2.3% que reducira el GDP (PBI). Eso significa inmediata nueva recesion y comenzara en la medianoche del 31 de Diciembre.

La ideologia de Obama no le permitira corregir su posicion. Un numero creciente de democratas estan abandonando la posicion de Obama y se estan uniendo a los republicanos insistiendo que esta es una economia debil y es mas prudente extender el recorte a todos los Americanos sin excepcion.
Algunos de ellos se estan convirtiendo y estan apoyando el supply side. 47 democratas han enviado una carta a Nancy Pelosi citando la urgencia de preservar los recortes de impuestos a los dividendos y ganancias de capital para crear empleos y formar mas capital.

Los lideres democratas no han querido hacer la votacion antes del receso por las elecciones para evitar la humillacion de una derrota.

El segundo error es el proteccionismo.


By DONALD L. LUSKIN
The nearby chart is an update of one I showed on this page in early July. It depicts how the stock market over the last year and a half has followed a path eerily similar to that of 1937. This week corresponds on the chart to mid-August 1937, when the cumulative effects of massive hikes in personal and corporate tax rates, severe monetary tightening, and aggressive business-bashing by the Roosevelt administration tipped the economy into the "depression inside the Depression." From there, stocks were in for the longest and second-deepest bear market in history.

. ..Thankfully, we're not repeating all the mistakes of 1937. But Congress and the Obama administration are flirting dangerously with one of them by failing to extend the expiring low tax rates for all Americans. What's worse, we're close to repeating the mother of all policy errors, the one made not in 1937 but in 1930—the one that started the Great Depression. We're on track to resurrect the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act.

Let's start with taxes. If today's low rates expire at year-end per current law, that would at a stroke reduce after-tax income for every working American, the average reduction being 3.3% according to the Tax Policy Center. Do the math: 94% of income goes to consumption, and consumption is 70% of gross domestic product. All else being equal, if the Bush tax cuts don't get extended, that's a 2.3% hit to 2011 GDP. That means instant double-dip recession, starting at midnight, Dec. 31.

Editorial Page Editor Paul Gigot analyzes a disturbing trend. Also, columnist Kimberley A. Strassel reviews the political prospects for the "moderate" Democrats that voted with Pelosi.
.Why won't the Democrats who control both houses of Congress switch off this doomsday clock? It's because Democratic leaders and the Obama administration want to roll the dice for the sake of ideology, by giving tax relief only to the middle class while letting rates rise for higher earners. A growing number of Democratic dissidents have joined with Republicans in insisting that, in this weak economy, it's more prudent that relief be given to all Americans.

Some have even undergone a supply-side conversion. Forty-seven Democrats have sent a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi citing the urgency of preserving low tax rates on dividends and capital gains for the sake of more job-creating capital formation.

Democratic leaders blocked Congress from taking up the matter before the October recess, fearing a humiliating defeat. Last Wednesday a resolution permitting the House to adjourn without dealing with the doomsday clock passed by a single vote, over unanimous Republican opposition and nays from 39 Democrats.

When a bill comes before the House in the lame-duck session later this year, the blacklisted_site will really begin. House rules allow Mrs. Pelosi, as speaker, to offer legislation under what's known as "suspension of the rules," which limits time for debate but requires a two-thirds majority to pass, rather than a simple majority. If Mrs. Pelosi offers a bill under suspension that excludes the highest earners, there's little chance she'll get enough GOP votes for the supermajority she needs. That way she can blame Republicans for the defeat of an already doomed bill many Democrats oppose, shaming the GOP for "voting against middle-class tax cuts."

Meanwhile, as we await New Year's Day when today's low tax rates expire, American taxpayers, already beset by crippling uncertainty, have no choice but to keep listening as the ticking of the doomsday clock gets louder and louder.


Now to protectionism. Last week the House passed the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act. It's an amendment that gives dangerous new protectionist powers to the notorious Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, the proximate cause of the global Great Depression, which after all these years is still on the books. Democrats—all but five of whom voted in favor of the bill last week—would do well to remember that in 1932 Franklin Delano Roosevelt ran as a free-trader, pledging to lower Smoot-Hawley's tariff walls. The 99 Republicans who voted aye should know that Herbert Hoover's name lives in infamy for erecting them. Instead, Wednesday's vote was a bipartisan move to build those walls higher using currencies as the bricks and mortar.

The bill, if passed by the Senate and signed by the president, would mandate that the Department of Commerce take a foreign country's currency interventions into account in determining whether its trading practices are unfair. In the case of China—the target at which this bill is aimed—Commerce would determine that the amount by which the yuan is allegedly undervalued. The number being thrown around now by supporters of the bill, such as the AFL-CIO and the United Auto Workers, is as much as 40%. The cost basis of Chinese-made goods exported to the U.S. would then be adjusted upward by that amount to determine whether they are being sold below cost, an unfair trade practice known as "dumping." Not a single Chinese export good could survive such a test—virtually the entire volume of China's exports to the U.S. suddenly would become subject to countervailing duties.

Surely China would retaliate. That makes the bill a nuclear threat of mutual assured economic destruction. If carried out, it would crush trade between China and the United States, which are huge export markets for each other.

Suppose China blinks and revalues the yuan to avert the nuclear threat. Even if this creates some American jobs, which is doubtful, it would do so by making all Chinese goods more expensive in the U.S.—an immediate inflationary tax on American consumers.

At the same time, it would make goods priced in dollars cheaper for China to import, supposedly a boon to U.S. exports. But an unintended consequence is that it will make China an even more voracious competitor for oil. That's because oil is priced in dollars, so a revaluation would make it cheaper in yuan terms. Remember, during the period from 2005 to 2008 when the yuan was revalued under similar political pressures from the U.S., the price of oil rose, not coincidentally, to $147 per barrel from $60. That could happen again—and it would be another inflationary tax on U.S. consumers.

Both issues—extending today's low tax rates, and protectionism against China—are animated by the coming election. Once that has passed, presumably cooler heads on both sides of the aisle will prevail, and these twin threats to our fragile economic recovery will fade away.

But sometimes such things can take on lives of their own. And sometimes in the heat of politics cooler heads do not prevail. If that happens now with issues as critical as these, then the economy and the stock market will be doomed to repeat the tragedies of the 1930s.

Mr. Luskin is chief investment officer at Trend Macrolytics LLC.

[admin]

Euro down 1.3656

Oil down 81.34, au down 1,315.80, Ag down 21.92, futures cu down 3.6580

Los futures del Dow Jones 1 punto al alza.

[jonibol]

Lo de Japón me trae a la memoria un conocido economista limeño, columnista de El Comercio, que anda propugnando la libre flotación cambiaria en el país. De ser así, ¿se imaginan cuánto estaría el dólar? 2,5.. 2,3... 2.. quizás.

[admin]

Malas noticias

Por primera vez en mas de un anio, los analistas estan rebajando el estimado de ganancias de los componentes del S&P 500 amenazando las ganancias del mercado en Setiembre.

Los estimados de ganancias combinadas para el 2011 cayeron a $95.17 el mes pasado de $96.16 en Agosto y reportaron la primera reduccion trimestre para los tres meses que terminado en Junio del 2009, de acuerdo a mas de 8,500 analistas entrevistados por Bloomberg. La revision viene despues que el stock market ha subido 8.8% el mes pasado, la ganancias mas grande en Setiembre desde 1939.


For the first time in more than a year analysts are cutting their forecasts for Standard & Poor’s 500 Index earnings, jeopardizing gains from the biggest September rally since World War II.

Estimates for S&P 500 companies’ combined 2011 profit fell as low as $95.17 last month from an August high of $96.16 and posted the first quarterly reduction since the three months ended June 2009, according to more than 8,500 analyst forecasts tracked by Bloomberg. The revision came as the benchmark gauge for U.S. equities rose 8.8 percent last month, the largest September advance since 1939.

Now, money managers at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. and USAA Investment Management Co. are preparing for weaker returns in October as Alcoa Inc.’s Oct. 7 report starts the third-quarter earnings season. Bulls say even with the decline in analyst estimates, equities remain cheaper based on forecast profits than at any time since 1988, excluding the six months after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy in 2008.

“Earnings forecasts are going to be somewhat more muted in their expectations for future growth,” said Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based money manager at Stifel Nicolaus, which oversees $90 billion. “It’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it’s certainly not the fuel that will reignite animal spirits.”

U.K., Hong Kong

Analysts cut 2011 profit estimates for benchmark stock indexes in 20 of the world’s 24 developed markets last month as U.S. unemployment remains near the highest in 27 years and European lawmakers enact austerity measures to shrink budget deficits. Income forecasts for the FTSE 100 Index of U.K. companies have fallen 4.9 percent since the end of May, while those in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index are down 1.5 percent since February, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Estimates show S&P 500 earnings may rise 15 percent in 2011, down from a forecast of 20 percent growth in March, Bloomberg data show. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2 percent to 1,146.24 last week amid lingering concern that Europe’s government debt crisis may threaten the economic recovery.

The stock index lost 0.8 percent to 1,137.03 at 4 p.m. New York time today. The average analyst estimate for S&P 500 profit in 2011 has rebounded to $95.95 a share, Bloomberg data show.

Alcoa, the first of 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to report third-quarter results, may say on Oct. 7 that it earned 6 cents a share in the past three months, according to the average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg. That’s 77 percent less than the 28-cent projection in March for the New York-based aluminum producer.

‘Pretty Fancy’

Companies in the S&P 500 may report profits rose 23 percent on average during the third quarter, according to forecasts tracked by Bloomberg. That’s about half the 49 percent growth during the second quarter and the 52 percent increase from January through March.

“You need pretty fancy GDP numbers to get to $95 a share in earnings next year,” said Robert Doll, vice chairman of New York-based BlackRock Inc., which oversees $3.2 trillion. “Our view is that they’re still a little too high, and that nobody believes them.”

Evidence of slowing global growth has led economists to reduce forecasts for U.S. gross domestic product to 2.5 percent in 2010, down from 3.1 percent in May, according to monthly Bloomberg surveys. The world’s largest economy expanded at an annual rate of 5 percent during the fourth quarter of 2009, the most in almost four years. It slowed to 1.7 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Sept. 30.

Strategists’ Estimates

Equity strategists that follow broad market and economic trends are less optimistic on the prospects for earnings next year than company analysts. S&P 500 profits may total $87.34 a share in 2011, according to the average of 11 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

Bank of America Corp.’s David Bianco cut his year-end estimate for the S&P 500 to 1,250 from 1,300 on Sept. 22, citing concern the U.S. Congress isn’t likely to extend tax cuts on dividends and capital gains that were enacted during George W. Bush’s presidency. The chief U.S. equity strategist for the Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender predicts S&P 500 companies will earn a total of $90 a share in 2011.

“If analysts are lowering estimates on a broad basis, the market should reflect that,” said Wasif Latif, vice president of equity investments at USAA, which oversees $45 billion in San Antonio. Part of the reason companies beat profit forecasts in prior quarters was because they reduced expenses, he added. “You can only cut costs so much before you start cutting into bone,” Latif said.

Longest Streak

More than 70 percent of S&P 500 companies have exceeded the average analyst profit projection for four straight quarters, the longest streak in Bloomberg data going back to 1993.

Changes in earnings projections have historically been correlated with swings in U.S. share prices. The S&P 500 climbed to an all-time high of 1,565.15 on Oct. 9, 2007, and profit projections for the next year peaked about three months later. After the index slumped to a 12-year low in March 2009, the forecasts bottomed out in the following two months, data tracked by Bloomberg show.

While estimates for U.S. corporate profit fell last quarter, they still indicate that firms in the S&P 500 will report record earnings in 2011. The equity benchmark is valued at 12 times projected income for 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the cheapest level since 1988, excluding October 2008 to March 2009 after New York-based Lehman’s bankruptcy, relative to reported profit from the past 12 months.

‘Equities Are Cheap’

Michael Levine of OppenheimerFunds Inc. says the outlook for lower earnings is already reflected in stock prices after the S&P 500 fell as much as 16 percent between April 23 and July 2. He predicts equity prices will keep rising as investors grow more confident that the U.S. economy isn’t headed for the second recession in three years.

“Equities are cheap,” said Levine, a money manager at New York-based OppenheimerFunds, which oversees about $165 billion. “The broader markets are assuming there’s a slow but gradual recovery. As long as that’s the message, the markets will be fine.”

Marshall & Ilsley Corp. and Vulcan Materials Co. had the biggest reductions in profit estimates for 2011 among S&P 500 companies since June 30.

Marshall & Ilsley, Vulcan

While the projection for Marshall & Ilsley was cut 87 percent since June, the average indicates the Milwaukee-based regional bank will post the biggest jump in earnings -- 102 percent -- since at least 2000 next year. Vulcan Materials, a Birmingham, Alabama-based producer of asphalt and concrete, may grow income by 207 percent, the most in at least a decade, analysts say. Its per-share earnings forecast for 2011 was cut by 75 percent in the past seven months.

Analysts reduced 2011 profit estimates for New York-based Verizon Communications Inc. by 4.5 percent in the past three months to $2.29 a share, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While shares of the second-largest U.S. phone company have soared 24 percent, the biggest quarterly advance since 2002, projections show income may fall 8 percent this year and rise 4 percent the next.

Forecasts for West Chester, Ohio-based AK Steel Holding Corp.’s income next year dropped 27 percent between July and September to $1.27 a share, data tracked by Bloomberg show. The jump in earnings next year from an estimated 7 cents a share in 2010 would be the biggest since at least 2000. The third-largest U.S. steelmaker by sales predicted an operating loss for the third quarter on Sept. 15 after iron-ore prices increased.

“Stocks go up and they raise their earnings estimates, the markets go down they start reducing estimates -- a lot of it has to do with the psychology,” said Jeff Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates, which manages $235 billion in St. Petersburg, Florida. “Over the long run, investing is indeed all about the earnings, but over the short term it’s all about psychology.”

[admin]

Brasil duplicará el impuesto a las operaciones financieras

Por Diana Kinch

RÍO DE JANEIRO (Dow Jones)--El Ministerio de Hacienda de Brasil duplicará el impuesto a las operaciones financieras, o IOF, para las inversiones extranjeras en aplicaciones de renta fija debido a la fortaleza del real brasileño, dijo el ministro de Hacienda, Guido Mantega.

El impuesto a los inversionistas extranjeros se elevará de un actual 2% a un 4% a partir del martes, dijo Mantega a periodistas el lunes en Brasilia.

Los impuestos a las inversiones extranjeras en la bolsa de acciones de Brasil se mantendrá sin cambios en un 2%, dijo el ministro.

El alza en los impuestos es considerada necesaria debido a la presión sobre el real por los recientes flujos de capital tras la venta de acciones de la gigante Petróleo Brasileiro SA, dijo Mantega.

El ministro añadió que no hay necesidad de que el gobierno intervenga en el mercado de futuros del dólar en Brasil.

[admin]

La estrategia de las monedas es un pandemonio en estos momentos, todo esta tan manipulado y tan distorsionado que nadie sabe que es que.

Es realmente una guerra de proteccion a las exportaciones dada la reciente salida de la recesion.

[jonibol]

esas menores ganancias sí que es una mala noticia.

[admin]

Japon sorprendio a los mercados cortando sus intereses y lanzando $418 billones en un programa monetario para impulsar a la economia. Tambien compraran activos publicos y privados.

El Asia cerro mixta.

Europa al alza debido a que el sector servicios crecio mas que lo anticipado.

Los futures del Dwo Jones 16 puntos al alza.

Libor igual 0.29%

Oil up 81.84, Au up 1,328.30

Yields down 2.45%

[admin]

Chevron comprara sus acciones, Goldman downgraded Home Depot

Silver up 22.26, futures cu up 3.70