Europa no puede ni debería subir mucho más... salvo dilatar el precio a corto plazo.
por iriondoinversiones •Hace 8 horas
Sé que es complicado en estos momentos actuales plantear un giro de mercado, pero estamos ante la denominada parte final de un ciclo caracterizada por el "éxtasis" y la creencia de que nada puede alterar el curso alcista de la bolsa y los mercados.
A pesar de que las tendencias son alcistas, tal como hemos venido planteando desde iriondoinversiones con especial énfasis en Alemania, comienzan a surgir signos evidentes de final de ciclos, lo que suele caracterizarse por épocas donde se vende bastante papel ya que todas las noticias buenas ya han sido descontadas y se comienza a mirar otros aspectos, como la capacidad de nuevos beneficios empresariales o factores políticos o geopolíticos de especial importancia.
Para entender el mercado, tenemos que cerciorarnos de la gran "marea oceánica" que lo mueve, de impulsos de amplitud de mayor escala y aquí exponemos el técnico del Eurostoxx-50.
Imagen
Podrán observar como seguimos dentro de un amplísimo canal bajista de amplitud, que viene desarrollando pautas de ondas de impulso bajistas coincidiendo en la actualidad en una onda 4ª. Dentro del subcanal alcista de medio plazo, también podremos observar que estamos metidos de lleno en una onda 3ª que suele venir acompañada de una onda correctiva que puede ser compleja o simple dependiendo de ciertos aspectos, pero dentro del canal alcista de menor amplitud, desde cuando Draghi expresó aquella frase mágica que hizo que los mercados se recomponieran de lo que parecía el fin del euro hasta la actualidad habiéndose otorgado un QE en Europa para salvar el galopante fenómeno deflacionista, que por cierto ha sido tardísimo, hemoso tenido revalorizaciones absolutas importantes, por lo que en gran medida este QE ya había sido descontado desde que Mario Draghi dió a entender allá en 2012 que la institución que preside haría preservar el Euro.
Por consiguiente y expuesto todo lo anterior, nos esperando al menos unos años correctivos que podrán ser simples o complejos y que ahora mismo sería dificil aventurar hasta qué punto podría originarse esos desequilibros en el precio. Lo que está claro es que ahora tocará corregir parte de esos retornos absolutos que han sido "maravillosos" aún no dejando por supuesto de seguir generando en otras partes del mundo, incluso en Europa, fantasticas oportunidades de inversión.
03:47 No esperamos que el brent suba por encima de 60$ hasta 2016
Afirma portavoz del Ministero de Petróleo iraní
Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 6:04 pm
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 6:12 pm
Habrá que hablarlo seriamente
José Luis Martínez Campuzano de Citi
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 4:41:52
Fed's Williams Says 'Serious' Rate-Rise Discussion Due Mid-Year. Una compañera y buena amiga me lo recordaba ayer al escuchar al Presidente Draghi: "habrá que ponerle un número de orden al QE". Sí, mejor hablar del QE1. ¿Y tras septiembre de 2016? Quizás, por qué no, haya un QE2. Y así en adelante. ¿Qué no lo acaban de ver? Miren, hay tres argumentos poderosos para defender que el QEn viene para quedarse durante mucho tiempo: 1. La inflación, tal como la espera el ECB, no alcanzará el objetivo ni en 2017; 2. Las perspectivas de inflación, como ha pasado en USA, seguirán por debajo de niveles deseables; 3. Sin reformas estructurales, el fuerte crecimiento de la economía europea en los próximos meses (y probablemente dos años...hasta cerrar el output-gap) no deja de ser cíclico y acelerando desequilibrios, como el de deuda y precios de activos.
"Es más fácil comprar que vender"; Buffett. De hecho, como estamos viendo en el caso de la Fed, una vez iniciada este tipo de política superarla es francamente complicado. Darle marcha atrás, roza la imposibilidad. Pero, no hay nada imposible en la vida. Aunque como estamos viendo en el caso de la Fed, iniciar la normalización monetaria se le parece mucho. Veremos.
¿Qué es lo que hay que vigilar en los datos de empleo USA?
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 4:55:07
Como hemos señalado anteriormente los datos laborales en EE.UU. serán el principal foco de atención de los inversores. Habrá que prestar especial atención a lo siguiente:
- Creación de empleo no agrícola: Se esperan 240.000 frente a los 257.000 del mes de enero y la media de 336.000 mensual desde noviembre. Fuerte caída pero aún por encima de los 200.000 puestos que se considera un mercado laboral saludable.
- Sueldo de los trabajadores: Los salarios de los trabajadores siguen muy sostenidos. Desde 2010 el alza ha sido de un 2% anual, muy por debajo del promedio histórico. Se espera un incremento del 0,2% en los ingresos por horas desde el 0,5% del mes anterior. Hay que vigilar especialmente este dato, pues lecturas por encima de las previsiones podría indicar tensionamiento salarial lo que se traduciría posteriormente en presiones inflacionistas.
- Comportamiento del sector constructor y manufacturero: Dos industrias que no han tenido un buen mes en enero. El fuerte crecimiento de empleo en construcción desde el pasado noviembre (600.000 trabajadores) puede reducirse significativamente en los próximos meses.
El sector manufacturero por su parte está sufriendo huelgas en el sector petrolero y se verá penalizado por el mal tiempo de febrero.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano de Citi
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 4:41:52
Fed's Williams Says 'Serious' Rate-Rise Discussion Due Mid-Year. Una compañera y buena amiga me lo recordaba ayer al escuchar al Presidente Draghi: "habrá que ponerle un número de orden al QE". Sí, mejor hablar del QE1. ¿Y tras septiembre de 2016? Quizás, por qué no, haya un QE2. Y así en adelante. ¿Qué no lo acaban de ver? Miren, hay tres argumentos poderosos para defender que el QEn viene para quedarse durante mucho tiempo: 1. La inflación, tal como la espera el ECB, no alcanzará el objetivo ni en 2017; 2. Las perspectivas de inflación, como ha pasado en USA, seguirán por debajo de niveles deseables; 3. Sin reformas estructurales, el fuerte crecimiento de la economía europea en los próximos meses (y probablemente dos años...hasta cerrar el output-gap) no deja de ser cíclico y acelerando desequilibrios, como el de deuda y precios de activos.
"Es más fácil comprar que vender"; Buffett. De hecho, como estamos viendo en el caso de la Fed, una vez iniciada este tipo de política superarla es francamente complicado. Darle marcha atrás, roza la imposibilidad. Pero, no hay nada imposible en la vida. Aunque como estamos viendo en el caso de la Fed, iniciar la normalización monetaria se le parece mucho. Veremos.
¿Qué es lo que hay que vigilar en los datos de empleo USA?
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 4:55:07
Como hemos señalado anteriormente los datos laborales en EE.UU. serán el principal foco de atención de los inversores. Habrá que prestar especial atención a lo siguiente:
- Creación de empleo no agrícola: Se esperan 240.000 frente a los 257.000 del mes de enero y la media de 336.000 mensual desde noviembre. Fuerte caída pero aún por encima de los 200.000 puestos que se considera un mercado laboral saludable.
- Sueldo de los trabajadores: Los salarios de los trabajadores siguen muy sostenidos. Desde 2010 el alza ha sido de un 2% anual, muy por debajo del promedio histórico. Se espera un incremento del 0,2% en los ingresos por horas desde el 0,5% del mes anterior. Hay que vigilar especialmente este dato, pues lecturas por encima de las previsiones podría indicar tensionamiento salarial lo que se traduciría posteriormente en presiones inflacionistas.
- Comportamiento del sector constructor y manufacturero: Dos industrias que no han tenido un buen mes en enero. El fuerte crecimiento de empleo en construcción desde el pasado noviembre (600.000 trabajadores) puede reducirse significativamente en los próximos meses.
El sector manufacturero por su parte está sufriendo huelgas en el sector petrolero y se verá penalizado por el mal tiempo de febrero.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 6:23 pm
05:00 PIB euro zona cuarto trimestre +0,3% vs +0,3% esperado y anterior
El PIB de la euro zona en el cuarto trimestre del 2014 sube un 0,3% igual que lo esperado y el trimestre anterior.
En términos interanuales la subida es del 0,9% igual que lo esperado y lectura anterior.
Datos en línea con las previsiones y sin impacto en los mercados financieros.
Bernanke Wants The US President To Declare "Economic Emergencies" In Future Crises
Tyler D
Presidents should get the power to declare economic emergencies along the lines to declare war, said former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday.
It might make sense to give “the president some ability to declare emergencies or take extraordinary actions and not put that all on the Fed,” Bernanke said at a conference. “The constitution gives the president significant flexibility to respond to military situations,” in part because they are chaotic, he noted.
“I am sure it is not politically possible, but it would be worth thinking about,” the former Fed chairman said.
By calling for the U.S. President to declare economic emergencies in future crises, he is explicitly saying he doesn’t want Congress involved at all, even if just ceremonially.
MarketWatch reports that:
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Presidents should get the power to declare economic emergencies along the lines to declare war, said former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday.
While the Fed retains the authority it needs to respond to another financial crisis, financial crises “tend to have a certain chaotic element to them,” that no one can predict, Bernanke said during a panel discussion sponsored by The Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy.
In light of this, it might make sense to give “the president some ability to declare emergencies or take extraordinary actions and not put that all on the Fed,” Bernanke said at a conference. “The constitution gives the president significant flexibility to respond to military situations,” in part because they are chaotic, he noted.
“I am sure it is not politically possible, but it would be worth thinking about,” the former Fed chairman said.
After the House initially rejected the proposal and stock markets tumbled, Congress reconsidered and the measure was signed into law and became the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.
After coming across the above, I got to thinking about the process for declaring national emergencies. I performed a quick search and read a little bit about the National Emergencies Act of 1976. It was passed in response to a spate of national emergencies initiated by President Richard Nixon, and was intended to ensure Congress exerted more oversight on such declarations for obvious reasons.
Unsurprisingly, Congress hasn’t been doing its job. As USA Today pointed out in a special report last year:
The 1976 law requires each house of Congress to meet within six months of an emergency to vote it up or down. That’s never happened.
Here are some additional excerpts:
In his six years in office, President Obama has declared nine emergencies, allowed one to expire and extended 22 emergencies enacted by his predecessors.
Since 1976, when Congress passed the National Emergencies Act, presidents have declared at least 53 states of emergency — not counting disaster declarations for events such as tornadoes and floods, according to a USA TODAY review of presidential documents. Most of those emergencies remain in effect.
Even as Congress has delegated emergency powers to the president, it has provided almost no oversight. The 1976 law requires each house of Congress to meet within six months of an emergency to vote it up or down. That’s never happened.
In May, President Obama rescinded a Bush-era executive order that protected Iraqi oil interests and their contractors from legal liability. Even as he did so, he left the state of emergency declared in that executive order intact — because at least two other executive orders rely on it.
Seriously?
Invoking those emergencies can give presidents broad and virtually unchecked powers. In an article published last year in the University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform, attorney Patrick Thronson identified 160 laws giving the president emergency powers, including the authority to:
• Reshape the military, putting members of the armed forces under foreign command, conscripting veterans, overturning sentences issued by courts-martial and taking over weather satellites for military use.
• Suspend environmental laws, including a law forbidding the dumping of toxic and infectious medical waste at sea.
• Bypass federal contracting laws, allowing the government to buy and sell property without competitive bidding.
• Allow unlimited secret patents for Army, Navy and Air Force scientists.
All these provisions come from laws passed by Congress, giving the president the power to invoke them with the stroke of a pen. “A lot of laws are passed like that. So if a president is hunting around for additional authority, declaring an emergency is pretty easy,” Scheppele said.
After President Richard Nixon declared two states of emergency in 17 months, Congress became alarmed by four simultaneous states of emergency.
It passed the National Emergencies Act by an overwhelming majority, requiring the president to cite a legal basis for the emergency and say which emergency powers he would exercise. All emergencies would expire after one year if not renewed by the president.
Bush’s Proclamation 7463 provides much of the legal underpinning for the war on terror. Bush cited that state of emergency, for example, in his military order allowing the detention of al-Qaeda combatants at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and their trial by military commission.
The post-9/11 emergency declaration is in its 13th year. Eleven emergencies are even older.
The National Emergencies Act allows Congress to overturn an emergency by a resolution passed by both houses — which could then be vetoed by the president. In 38 years, only one resolution has ever been introduced to cancel an emergency.
Congress, useless as usual. Unless of course a corporate giveaway is crafted by lobbyists, in which case it flies through both chambers and becomes law instantaneously.
After Hurricane Katrina in 2005, President Bush declared a state of emergency allowing him to waive federal wage laws. Contractors rebuilding after the hurricane would not have to abide by the Davis-Bacon Act, which requires workers to be paid the local prevailing wage.
“The history here is so clear. The Congress hasn’t done much of anything,” said Harold Relyea, who studied national emergencies during a 37-year career at the Congressional Research Service. “Congress has not been the watchdog. It’s very toothless, and the partisanship hasn’t particularly helped.”
If anything, Congress may be inclined to give the president additional emergency powers. Legislation pending in Congress would allow the president to invoke an emergency to waive liability for health care providers and to sanction banks that do business with Hezbollah.
Scheppele, the Princeton professor, said emergencies have become so routine that they are “declared and undeclared often without a single headline.”
El PIB de la euro zona en el cuarto trimestre del 2014 sube un 0,3% igual que lo esperado y el trimestre anterior.
En términos interanuales la subida es del 0,9% igual que lo esperado y lectura anterior.
Datos en línea con las previsiones y sin impacto en los mercados financieros.
Bernanke Wants The US President To Declare "Economic Emergencies" In Future Crises
Tyler D
Presidents should get the power to declare economic emergencies along the lines to declare war, said former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday.
It might make sense to give “the president some ability to declare emergencies or take extraordinary actions and not put that all on the Fed,” Bernanke said at a conference. “The constitution gives the president significant flexibility to respond to military situations,” in part because they are chaotic, he noted.
“I am sure it is not politically possible, but it would be worth thinking about,” the former Fed chairman said.
By calling for the U.S. President to declare economic emergencies in future crises, he is explicitly saying he doesn’t want Congress involved at all, even if just ceremonially.
MarketWatch reports that:
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Presidents should get the power to declare economic emergencies along the lines to declare war, said former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday.
While the Fed retains the authority it needs to respond to another financial crisis, financial crises “tend to have a certain chaotic element to them,” that no one can predict, Bernanke said during a panel discussion sponsored by The Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy.
In light of this, it might make sense to give “the president some ability to declare emergencies or take extraordinary actions and not put that all on the Fed,” Bernanke said at a conference. “The constitution gives the president significant flexibility to respond to military situations,” in part because they are chaotic, he noted.
“I am sure it is not politically possible, but it would be worth thinking about,” the former Fed chairman said.
After the House initially rejected the proposal and stock markets tumbled, Congress reconsidered and the measure was signed into law and became the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP.
After coming across the above, I got to thinking about the process for declaring national emergencies. I performed a quick search and read a little bit about the National Emergencies Act of 1976. It was passed in response to a spate of national emergencies initiated by President Richard Nixon, and was intended to ensure Congress exerted more oversight on such declarations for obvious reasons.
Unsurprisingly, Congress hasn’t been doing its job. As USA Today pointed out in a special report last year:
The 1976 law requires each house of Congress to meet within six months of an emergency to vote it up or down. That’s never happened.
Here are some additional excerpts:
In his six years in office, President Obama has declared nine emergencies, allowed one to expire and extended 22 emergencies enacted by his predecessors.
Since 1976, when Congress passed the National Emergencies Act, presidents have declared at least 53 states of emergency — not counting disaster declarations for events such as tornadoes and floods, according to a USA TODAY review of presidential documents. Most of those emergencies remain in effect.
Even as Congress has delegated emergency powers to the president, it has provided almost no oversight. The 1976 law requires each house of Congress to meet within six months of an emergency to vote it up or down. That’s never happened.
In May, President Obama rescinded a Bush-era executive order that protected Iraqi oil interests and their contractors from legal liability. Even as he did so, he left the state of emergency declared in that executive order intact — because at least two other executive orders rely on it.
Seriously?
Invoking those emergencies can give presidents broad and virtually unchecked powers. In an article published last year in the University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform, attorney Patrick Thronson identified 160 laws giving the president emergency powers, including the authority to:
• Reshape the military, putting members of the armed forces under foreign command, conscripting veterans, overturning sentences issued by courts-martial and taking over weather satellites for military use.
• Suspend environmental laws, including a law forbidding the dumping of toxic and infectious medical waste at sea.
• Bypass federal contracting laws, allowing the government to buy and sell property without competitive bidding.
• Allow unlimited secret patents for Army, Navy and Air Force scientists.
All these provisions come from laws passed by Congress, giving the president the power to invoke them with the stroke of a pen. “A lot of laws are passed like that. So if a president is hunting around for additional authority, declaring an emergency is pretty easy,” Scheppele said.
After President Richard Nixon declared two states of emergency in 17 months, Congress became alarmed by four simultaneous states of emergency.
It passed the National Emergencies Act by an overwhelming majority, requiring the president to cite a legal basis for the emergency and say which emergency powers he would exercise. All emergencies would expire after one year if not renewed by the president.
Bush’s Proclamation 7463 provides much of the legal underpinning for the war on terror. Bush cited that state of emergency, for example, in his military order allowing the detention of al-Qaeda combatants at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and their trial by military commission.
The post-9/11 emergency declaration is in its 13th year. Eleven emergencies are even older.
The National Emergencies Act allows Congress to overturn an emergency by a resolution passed by both houses — which could then be vetoed by the president. In 38 years, only one resolution has ever been introduced to cancel an emergency.
Congress, useless as usual. Unless of course a corporate giveaway is crafted by lobbyists, in which case it flies through both chambers and becomes law instantaneously.
After Hurricane Katrina in 2005, President Bush declared a state of emergency allowing him to waive federal wage laws. Contractors rebuilding after the hurricane would not have to abide by the Davis-Bacon Act, which requires workers to be paid the local prevailing wage.
“The history here is so clear. The Congress hasn’t done much of anything,” said Harold Relyea, who studied national emergencies during a 37-year career at the Congressional Research Service. “Congress has not been the watchdog. It’s very toothless, and the partisanship hasn’t particularly helped.”
If anything, Congress may be inclined to give the president additional emergency powers. Legislation pending in Congress would allow the president to invoke an emergency to waive liability for health care providers and to sanction banks that do business with Hezbollah.
Scheppele, the Princeton professor, said emergencies have become so routine that they are “declared and undeclared often without a single headline.”
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 6:36 pm
JRobby:
Emergency conditions have existed since Sept. 2008. Assume Benny is thinking asset freezes and other capital flow controls.
CClarity:And gold confiscation, just like in the 1930s. Why do we "give" them this power?
5:26 Sube el rublo apoyado en el rebote del petróleo
La divisa de Rusia está recuperando posiciones con fuerza gracias al reciente rebote de los precios del petróleo, una de las principales exportaciones de la nación.
El rublo se fortalece un 2,2 por ciento frente al dólar estadounidense, por lo que 1 dólar compra ahora 59,4 rublos.
El rublo se ha estado recuperando durante varias semanas, gracias a la estabilización de los precios del petróleo.
El precio del Brent gana un 1 por ciento a US $61,5 por barril.
5:15 Poco probable una extensión adicional de programa de rescate griego
Oficial de la Unión Europea afirma que es muy poco probable que haya una extensión adicional de un programa de rescate para Grecia.
5:37 La rentabilidad de los bonos periféricos cae a nuevos mínimos históricos
La sesión en los mercados de renta fija europeos de hoy es una continuación de la tendencia de ayer después del BCE, en medio de pocas noticias macro. Los rendimientos de los bonos periféricos han tocado nuevos mínimos en España, Portugal, Italia e Irlanda, con un aplanamiento de la curva de tipos.
La curva alemana 10/30 también se ha visto afectada con el menor spread desde junio de 2012.
Mientras tanto, la tasa breakeven 5A/5A sube a máximos de un año en el 1,798%.
Los mercados de acciones tocan muy planos, con el Ibex 35 dejándose un 0,11% y el Euro Stoxx 50 plano en 3.618.
6:02 Crude Oil (J5) intradía: resistencia clave de corto plazo en 52,4
CMC Markets
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 52,4
Preferencia: Posiciones cortas debajo de 52,4 con objetivos en 49,6 y 48,7 en extensión.
Escenario alternativo: Arriba de 52,4 buscar mayor indicación al alza con 53,1 y 54,2 como objetivos.
Comentario técnico: Mientras 52,4 sea resistente, es probable que haya una baja hacia 49,6.
Emergency conditions have existed since Sept. 2008. Assume Benny is thinking asset freezes and other capital flow controls.
CClarity:And gold confiscation, just like in the 1930s. Why do we "give" them this power?
5:26 Sube el rublo apoyado en el rebote del petróleo
La divisa de Rusia está recuperando posiciones con fuerza gracias al reciente rebote de los precios del petróleo, una de las principales exportaciones de la nación.
El rublo se fortalece un 2,2 por ciento frente al dólar estadounidense, por lo que 1 dólar compra ahora 59,4 rublos.
El rublo se ha estado recuperando durante varias semanas, gracias a la estabilización de los precios del petróleo.
El precio del Brent gana un 1 por ciento a US $61,5 por barril.
5:15 Poco probable una extensión adicional de programa de rescate griego
Oficial de la Unión Europea afirma que es muy poco probable que haya una extensión adicional de un programa de rescate para Grecia.
5:37 La rentabilidad de los bonos periféricos cae a nuevos mínimos históricos
La sesión en los mercados de renta fija europeos de hoy es una continuación de la tendencia de ayer después del BCE, en medio de pocas noticias macro. Los rendimientos de los bonos periféricos han tocado nuevos mínimos en España, Portugal, Italia e Irlanda, con un aplanamiento de la curva de tipos.
La curva alemana 10/30 también se ha visto afectada con el menor spread desde junio de 2012.
Mientras tanto, la tasa breakeven 5A/5A sube a máximos de un año en el 1,798%.
Los mercados de acciones tocan muy planos, con el Ibex 35 dejándose un 0,11% y el Euro Stoxx 50 plano en 3.618.
6:02 Crude Oil (J5) intradía: resistencia clave de corto plazo en 52,4
CMC Markets
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 52,4
Preferencia: Posiciones cortas debajo de 52,4 con objetivos en 49,6 y 48,7 en extensión.
Escenario alternativo: Arriba de 52,4 buscar mayor indicación al alza con 53,1 y 54,2 como objetivos.
Comentario técnico: Mientras 52,4 sea resistente, es probable que haya una baja hacia 49,6.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 6:47 pm
7:11 La comisaria europea de Comercio no es "muy optimista" sobre Rusia
La comisaria europea de Comercio, Cecilia Malmström, reconoció hoy en el Fórum Europa que no es "muy optimista" respecto a las relaciones actuales con Rusia tras la crisis con Ucrania, puesto que "no sigue las reglas".
Meet Landlord Loans: You Too Can Be A Real Estate Speculator
T.D.
Just when we thought the news flow around shoddy loan securitizations couldn’t get any better (or worse, depending on how you look at it), we get this headline from the NY Times: “Equity Firms Are Lending to Landlords, Signaling a Shift.”
Forget falsifying loan documents to get underqualified borrowers into new Honda Civics on 84 month payment plans. Forget encouraging unemployed households to borrow $3,500 at 30% to buy a new refrigerator. Those schemes are so two days ago. The smart money is now betting on real estate speculators.
Via NY Times:
In the aftermath of the financial crisis, large private equity firms spent tens of billions of dollars buying foreclosed homes across the United States to operate them as rental properties.
Now some of those same firms are providing loans to smaller investors seeking to do much the same.
Three big private equity firms — the Blackstone Group, Colony Capital and Cerberus Capital Management — are betting that so-called landlord loans to small and midsize investors will become the next big opportunity to profit from the rebound in the United States housing market. The private equity firms are providing financing indirectly to hundreds of real estate funds buying single-family homes, something that until recently was not widely available.
Over the last year, subsidiaries and affiliates of all three private equity firms have lent collectively about $1.5 billion to smaller residential real estate investors, enhancing the capability of these firms to gobble up distressed single-family homes, said people briefed on the matter.
Just to recap, on Monday we got Wells Fargo implicitly admitting that the subprime auto space is beginning to crack when the bank announced a cap on car loans to underqualified borrowers (i.e. the bank is voting with its feet), on Tuesday we got what can only be called a match made in subprime hell when AIG’s subprime unit Springleaf tied the knot with Citi outcast OneMain to form what will eventually amount to a personal loan ABS machine, and today we’re introduced to the “landlord loan”. Of course, this latest development in the world of lending people money to buy things they probably shouldn’t buy wouldn’t be complete if the PE firms involved don’t maximize the riskiness of this endeavor by pooling these “assets” and selling them off to investors. Here’s the Times again:
All three firms are gearing up to bundle those loans into bonds — with the first securitization of landlord loans expected to come to market in the next few weeks
At least we don’t have to wait long.
It also comes as absolutely no surprise that the lead underwriter on the first deal is likely to be Deutsche Bank who, as we learned during the Canadian ABCP crisis of 2007 when the bank accidentally ran up around $6 billion in paper losses on the latest leveraged CDO scheme, takes a certain pride in being the first bank to throw its support behind the latest bad idea in structured finance.
As is the case with ABS backed by pools of auto loans and as is quickly becoming the case with securities based on personal loans (auto deals and non-traditional deals combined to account for nearly three quarters of U.S. ABS issuance last month), expect demand for landlord loan ABS to be robust thanks to the sinister proliferation of ZIRP and now, increasingly NIRP. Meeting that demand shouldn’t be a problem either as the PE masterminds behind this are seeing quite a bit of interest from borrowers eager to play Flip This House:
The private equity firms see a rising demand for landlord loans — which can range from as little as $500,000 to $50 million — given that smaller- to midsize real estate investment firms historically have had to rely mainly on cash raised to make purchases.
On a more sobering note, some commentators believe this whole enterprise could be ill-conceived. Here’s what one “housing advocate” (or as we call them, killjoys) had to say:
Housing advocates, however, are concerned that landlord loans from private equity firms could fuel the purchase of homes by investors ill-equipped to manage rental properties. The advocates are concerned about the due diligence the private equity investors will do to make sure investors are not just good credit risks, but qualified property managers as well.
Time will tell, but one thing is for sure: landlord loan ABS is coming to an investment bank near you.
La comisaria europea de Comercio, Cecilia Malmström, reconoció hoy en el Fórum Europa que no es "muy optimista" respecto a las relaciones actuales con Rusia tras la crisis con Ucrania, puesto que "no sigue las reglas".
Meet Landlord Loans: You Too Can Be A Real Estate Speculator
T.D.
Just when we thought the news flow around shoddy loan securitizations couldn’t get any better (or worse, depending on how you look at it), we get this headline from the NY Times: “Equity Firms Are Lending to Landlords, Signaling a Shift.”
Forget falsifying loan documents to get underqualified borrowers into new Honda Civics on 84 month payment plans. Forget encouraging unemployed households to borrow $3,500 at 30% to buy a new refrigerator. Those schemes are so two days ago. The smart money is now betting on real estate speculators.
Via NY Times:
In the aftermath of the financial crisis, large private equity firms spent tens of billions of dollars buying foreclosed homes across the United States to operate them as rental properties.
Now some of those same firms are providing loans to smaller investors seeking to do much the same.
Three big private equity firms — the Blackstone Group, Colony Capital and Cerberus Capital Management — are betting that so-called landlord loans to small and midsize investors will become the next big opportunity to profit from the rebound in the United States housing market. The private equity firms are providing financing indirectly to hundreds of real estate funds buying single-family homes, something that until recently was not widely available.
Over the last year, subsidiaries and affiliates of all three private equity firms have lent collectively about $1.5 billion to smaller residential real estate investors, enhancing the capability of these firms to gobble up distressed single-family homes, said people briefed on the matter.
Just to recap, on Monday we got Wells Fargo implicitly admitting that the subprime auto space is beginning to crack when the bank announced a cap on car loans to underqualified borrowers (i.e. the bank is voting with its feet), on Tuesday we got what can only be called a match made in subprime hell when AIG’s subprime unit Springleaf tied the knot with Citi outcast OneMain to form what will eventually amount to a personal loan ABS machine, and today we’re introduced to the “landlord loan”. Of course, this latest development in the world of lending people money to buy things they probably shouldn’t buy wouldn’t be complete if the PE firms involved don’t maximize the riskiness of this endeavor by pooling these “assets” and selling them off to investors. Here’s the Times again:
All three firms are gearing up to bundle those loans into bonds — with the first securitization of landlord loans expected to come to market in the next few weeks
At least we don’t have to wait long.
It also comes as absolutely no surprise that the lead underwriter on the first deal is likely to be Deutsche Bank who, as we learned during the Canadian ABCP crisis of 2007 when the bank accidentally ran up around $6 billion in paper losses on the latest leveraged CDO scheme, takes a certain pride in being the first bank to throw its support behind the latest bad idea in structured finance.
As is the case with ABS backed by pools of auto loans and as is quickly becoming the case with securities based on personal loans (auto deals and non-traditional deals combined to account for nearly three quarters of U.S. ABS issuance last month), expect demand for landlord loan ABS to be robust thanks to the sinister proliferation of ZIRP and now, increasingly NIRP. Meeting that demand shouldn’t be a problem either as the PE masterminds behind this are seeing quite a bit of interest from borrowers eager to play Flip This House:
The private equity firms see a rising demand for landlord loans — which can range from as little as $500,000 to $50 million — given that smaller- to midsize real estate investment firms historically have had to rely mainly on cash raised to make purchases.
On a more sobering note, some commentators believe this whole enterprise could be ill-conceived. Here’s what one “housing advocate” (or as we call them, killjoys) had to say:
Housing advocates, however, are concerned that landlord loans from private equity firms could fuel the purchase of homes by investors ill-equipped to manage rental properties. The advocates are concerned about the due diligence the private equity investors will do to make sure investors are not just good credit risks, but qualified property managers as well.
Time will tell, but one thing is for sure: landlord loan ABS is coming to an investment bank near you.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 7:18 pm
BuddyEffed:
"In the aftermath of the financial crisis, large private equity firms spent tens of billions of dollars buying foreclosed homes across the United States to operate them as rental properties. "
Or was it really to prop up a mark to model accounting methodology? I find it hard to call it a business model, instead of a methodology because a business model tends to imply stability and profit.
Bemused Observer:
Anything to keep those values up. God forbid investors should lose a nickel on depreciating assets. If regular folks won't buy the houses to live in, then sell 'em off to suckers who will try and play 'Landlord' for awhile, because the investors who snapped them up have to unload them now for more than they paid.
The problem is, we seem to have more ticks than we do dog.
blindfaith:
correct me if I am wrong here, but isn't Cerberus Capital Management part of the Chrysler bailout? Aren't Dan Quail former USVP under George Bush, and John Snow former Sec of the Tres., general partners in Cerberus Capital Management.
If so you know it is a safe bet for them
AccreditedEYE:
Don't get it... Rent-backed bonds I get. They get liquid quick and easy. This is so convoluted and time consuming. Why would they opt to go this way versus rent backed credit?
taketheredpill:
Returns in US housing "recovery" were best at the beginning but getting skinnier now and big players want out. I assume the pool of Institutional buyers for the housing product is stuffed so this opens up another source of fools, sorry buyers.
GittyUP:
I sell to the hedge funds all time and they are idiots. The rent backed bonds are a great idea on paper but its way to hard to make it work in the real world. Real estate is a stupid to manage and on that scale its almost impossible. They decided its better to lend the money to local smal investors who know the local market better. A huge part of their underwriting process is experience, I know because I looked into these loans 6 months ago. Its a great product if your business model is buying with all cash, fix, rent. They wil let you cash out on 10 homes or more with a blanket loan at 70% ARV. COCR is much much higher leveraged then cash even at 70%. Its a win win for everyone. 30% equity is a safe cushion for lenders and 70% LTV allows investor to get much higher COCR. Also the homes must be performing for min. time period with hard proof and the rent must cover loan payments by about double.
This is a way safer product for banks then lending 97% on owner occuied loans to people who have no experience owning a home and no money in the bank to cover unexpected expenses.
Bananamerican:
Agree with Gittyup?
Agree with Toolshed? (from below)"Sounds to me like the guys providing the loans have a bunch of real estate they don't want to be sitting on when the SHTF. Your private equity firm comes to the realization that the landlord business is not such a cash cow afterall, and decides it needs to unload the crap before it gets seriously burned in a downturn. They try to sell, ...but can't find a buyer with deep enough pockets to put much of a dent in their inventory of garbage. So, they brilliantly decide to be the source of the funds out the front door and the garbage out the back door. Pure criminal genius."
philosophers bone:
It's called LOAN TO OWN. Give excess financing to borrowers where default is assured if there is any market correction to real estate prices or interest rates. It's a "bad" lending strategy but a potentially good acquisition strategy.
homebody:
"acquisition strategy"
Sure what you are left with is a trashed house with no fixtures or copper piping.
Just invest more in demolition and then only have to mow the weeds.
NOZZLE:
This is the gASS we've been waiting for, ShitStone bought these houses for 50% of their current value and paid $10,000 a door for multi family properties, without this kind of easy financiing they have no bagholders.
This is the final chapter in making things look like all of the problems have been solved.
homebody:
Ya bullish on Detroit houses - very good risk - no rental management or maintenance needed
Get in on the ground floor on this one - hurry - supplies won't last
(do I really have to say - sarc)
Dead Canary:
And when they are stuck with non-performing loans.... Save up your pennies everybody. There are banks that are gonna need another bailout on the horizon!
Farmer Joe in B:
Pure criminal genius is right...!!
As the post stated, look for ABS on these loans shortly. Just offloading the real estate by funding the landlords still leaves these guys exposed to the loan itself (albeit to a lesser extent than the full value of the property). I seriously wouldn't be surprised to see them bundle together a bunch of these loans and pawn them off.
Landlord-loan ABS definitely coming to a pension fund near you soon....!!
besnook:
liquidity in the housing market isn't a bad thing. spreading risk amongst other professional investors instead of individual buyers is a better model but it is not immune to abuse by everyone involved except the buyers of the mbs'.
what i find funny in a stupid human nature way is the renter who has rationalized renting as better than owning ending up creating a reflexive trend confirming a biased rationale for renting(as there was for buying). in the end the renter will end up paying more for renting than buying while vociferously arguing the benefits of renting outway the benefits of ownership. in other words, buying rental property is probably a good long term bet right now.
Mike Honcho:
No (big word) benef
it (bigger term) to renting, got it, thanks professor.
Blankenstein:
Spoken like a true realtard.
" in the end the renter will end up paying more for renting "
Really? How about the enormous amount of people who bought at extremely inflated prices during the bubble? They have to make interest payments for the life of the loan, pay property taxes and maintain the home. If they can't sell for a great deal more than they paid, they were essentially "RENTING" the home - they don't get their interest, taxes and maintanence costs back. Also, we are in housing bubble 2.0 and when it pops, good luck getting the sales price you paid for the home. Your "rent" will be even higher for that home you "bought."
gimme soma dat:
It's never been a better time to buy/sell/rent/invest. Consult your local REALTOR®.
Dewey Cheatum Howe:
Sounds like phase II of Georgism being put into action. Phase I was the idea of individual property ownership (but no allodial titles). Only problem you can't tax land if no one has any money to pay for it, including the landlords when you go away from individual property ownership. If you can't get an allodial title for your property you don't own it period regardless of taxation because the property can always be confiscated without using force. You are always renting one way or the other.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgism
Kasperfx:
I seen this coming years a geo when the private equity firms started buying up and inflating the overpriced SFH market, their plan is to now dump the overpriced SFH to the "joe Real estate investor and keep the inflated notes/debt . this is a sure sign thats its time to pass the hot potato !.
Lmo Mutton:
We have to create the bubble to see if it pops.
venturen:
do we have to rescue them when it blows up...I assume the Federal Government backs all of these loans? Getting tired of rescuing billionaires
markar:
This should be amazingly profitable for the small/mid sized landlord. On top of maintenance costs, vacancy rates, and mgt. fees now they can add mortgage payments to the mix. Not to speak of the lack of economies of scale managing single family homes scattered around.
Handful of Dust:
"Just walk away...."
Why pay rent? Live for free for months before you get thrown out just make sure you have sumthing lined up elsewhere first.
But....many landlords and aprtment complexes simply don't care if you have stiffed the last guy 'cause they're hurting so bad for renters right now in many places. I read somewhere occupancy rates in places like South Dakota and the Houston area have plunged so apartment complex managers are desperate. I saw this in the DFW area during the 1980's recession...the area turned downward very badly and pretty nice apartment complexes became trash by handing out those "first-3 months free" deals. It attracts a certain crowd.
If you are plannin gon buying a house [as crazy as that sounds] be sure to stay as far away as possible from apartment complexes since this downturn may cause the same apartment ghettoes i saw in the 1980's.
shovelhead:
Brilliant idea.
Timesharing your overinflated, soon to be NPL's, to the chumps on the other end of the Bigger Fool conga line.
Kasperfx:
Good example of craziness this Fed funded SFH market has become, take a look at this18,000 Sq Ft beauty http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhom ... -Cir_For... , now look at were it is, google maphttps://www.google.com/maps/place/Es ... 92b4417c3a it's in a gated community of 3/4k sf homes with great views of the powerlines lines .. who the f would live it that place? WTF ,, anyone have a suker for this one? lol
Lin S:
Cathay Bank has been promoting this for awhile to mainland Chinese with cash.
More recently, I noticed a For Sale-type sign in front of the house on my block (suburban Los Angeles area), which instead read, "for lease." After sitting vacant for three months, a Caucasian family with nice cars has moved in.
Maybe that's the trend now: wealthy Chinese landlords living somewhere else, buy up houses and rent them to Americans who cannot afford a house of their own, and who are instead forced to pay exorbitant rents.
How will all of this end?
GreaterFool1965:
From the PE firms' perspective, this is brilliant. They want out, so they are providing vendor financing. I.e. they are willing to accept their cash over time instead of all upfront to sell their properties to other 'investors'. Then, to get out of the credit risk they have taken on, they securitize this vendor financing and sell it to other investors, who want the yield from lending money to small investors who want to get into the RE market. Briliant! They get out of their RE investments, with one 'investor' owning the property and other 'investors' holding the note from the first investor. Rinse. Repeat.
treasureX:
As a landlord, I think this is a useful product. Having to come up with a 30% down payment, I feel, eliminates the "speculators". When you have the ability to come up with that kind of cash it changes you decision making process.
mendolover:
There's a rebound in the housing market?
Dicen...
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 7:26:57
- Tsipras
Ha pedido a sus ministros menos palabras y más acciones
Considera que el ECB aún tiene "la soga en su cuello"
Descarta la salida de Grecia del Euro porque "ama Europa"
Quiere emitir deuda a corto plazo para cubrir vencimientos de financiación...si el ECB no está de acuerdo, asumirán una gran responsabilidad
- Ministro de finanzas alemán
Un pago rápido es factible si el Gobierno griego implementa las reformas
Como hipótesis el Gobierno griego podría tener ya detalles de su programa de reformas en pocas semanas
El límite es a finales de junio
- Regling (ESM)
Grecia debe pagar toda la deuda recibida del resto de la Eurozona
Los discursos desde Atenas han sido en ocasiones irritantes
- Reuter
Grecia ha pagado 310 M. EUR al FMI
- Fitch
Salida de Grecia del EUR posible, pero el riesgo sistémico improbable
Con todo, Europa podría sufrir un shock con la salida
El coste de un posible default de Grecia en la deuda del ECB y del Banco Central Griego es manejable
Podría ocurrir precisamente que la hipotética salida de Grecia fortalezca la Unión
- Draghi
Ayer el Presidente del ECB dijo que no permitirá al Tesoro griego emitir deuda a corto plazo por encima del límite establecido
El ECB no es una institución política que tome decisiones políticas: en las circunstancias actuales no tomará la deuda como colateral en la inyección de fondos
- Stournaras (Banco Central de Grecia)
Es importante que la próxima reunión del Eurogrupo el lunes sea exitosa
La banca griega en general está bien capitalizada, no hay problema con las cifras de depósitos
José Luis Martínez Campuzano de Citi
7:50 La UE podría imponer aranceles de productos de acero inoxidable a China y Taiwán
Algunas fuentes sugieren que la UE va a imponer aranceles a la importación de productos laminados de acero inoxidable en frío procedentes de China y Taiwán.
"In the aftermath of the financial crisis, large private equity firms spent tens of billions of dollars buying foreclosed homes across the United States to operate them as rental properties. "
Or was it really to prop up a mark to model accounting methodology? I find it hard to call it a business model, instead of a methodology because a business model tends to imply stability and profit.
Bemused Observer:
Anything to keep those values up. God forbid investors should lose a nickel on depreciating assets. If regular folks won't buy the houses to live in, then sell 'em off to suckers who will try and play 'Landlord' for awhile, because the investors who snapped them up have to unload them now for more than they paid.
The problem is, we seem to have more ticks than we do dog.
blindfaith:
correct me if I am wrong here, but isn't Cerberus Capital Management part of the Chrysler bailout? Aren't Dan Quail former USVP under George Bush, and John Snow former Sec of the Tres., general partners in Cerberus Capital Management.
If so you know it is a safe bet for them
AccreditedEYE:
Don't get it... Rent-backed bonds I get. They get liquid quick and easy. This is so convoluted and time consuming. Why would they opt to go this way versus rent backed credit?
taketheredpill:
Returns in US housing "recovery" were best at the beginning but getting skinnier now and big players want out. I assume the pool of Institutional buyers for the housing product is stuffed so this opens up another source of fools, sorry buyers.
GittyUP:
I sell to the hedge funds all time and they are idiots. The rent backed bonds are a great idea on paper but its way to hard to make it work in the real world. Real estate is a stupid to manage and on that scale its almost impossible. They decided its better to lend the money to local smal investors who know the local market better. A huge part of their underwriting process is experience, I know because I looked into these loans 6 months ago. Its a great product if your business model is buying with all cash, fix, rent. They wil let you cash out on 10 homes or more with a blanket loan at 70% ARV. COCR is much much higher leveraged then cash even at 70%. Its a win win for everyone. 30% equity is a safe cushion for lenders and 70% LTV allows investor to get much higher COCR. Also the homes must be performing for min. time period with hard proof and the rent must cover loan payments by about double.
This is a way safer product for banks then lending 97% on owner occuied loans to people who have no experience owning a home and no money in the bank to cover unexpected expenses.
Bananamerican:
Agree with Gittyup?
Agree with Toolshed? (from below)"Sounds to me like the guys providing the loans have a bunch of real estate they don't want to be sitting on when the SHTF. Your private equity firm comes to the realization that the landlord business is not such a cash cow afterall, and decides it needs to unload the crap before it gets seriously burned in a downturn. They try to sell, ...but can't find a buyer with deep enough pockets to put much of a dent in their inventory of garbage. So, they brilliantly decide to be the source of the funds out the front door and the garbage out the back door. Pure criminal genius."
philosophers bone:
It's called LOAN TO OWN. Give excess financing to borrowers where default is assured if there is any market correction to real estate prices or interest rates. It's a "bad" lending strategy but a potentially good acquisition strategy.
homebody:
"acquisition strategy"
Sure what you are left with is a trashed house with no fixtures or copper piping.
Just invest more in demolition and then only have to mow the weeds.
NOZZLE:
This is the gASS we've been waiting for, ShitStone bought these houses for 50% of their current value and paid $10,000 a door for multi family properties, without this kind of easy financiing they have no bagholders.
This is the final chapter in making things look like all of the problems have been solved.
homebody:
Ya bullish on Detroit houses - very good risk - no rental management or maintenance needed
Get in on the ground floor on this one - hurry - supplies won't last
(do I really have to say - sarc)
Dead Canary:
And when they are stuck with non-performing loans.... Save up your pennies everybody. There are banks that are gonna need another bailout on the horizon!
Farmer Joe in B:
Pure criminal genius is right...!!
As the post stated, look for ABS on these loans shortly. Just offloading the real estate by funding the landlords still leaves these guys exposed to the loan itself (albeit to a lesser extent than the full value of the property). I seriously wouldn't be surprised to see them bundle together a bunch of these loans and pawn them off.
Landlord-loan ABS definitely coming to a pension fund near you soon....!!
besnook:
liquidity in the housing market isn't a bad thing. spreading risk amongst other professional investors instead of individual buyers is a better model but it is not immune to abuse by everyone involved except the buyers of the mbs'.
what i find funny in a stupid human nature way is the renter who has rationalized renting as better than owning ending up creating a reflexive trend confirming a biased rationale for renting(as there was for buying). in the end the renter will end up paying more for renting than buying while vociferously arguing the benefits of renting outway the benefits of ownership. in other words, buying rental property is probably a good long term bet right now.
Mike Honcho:
No (big word) benef
it (bigger term) to renting, got it, thanks professor.
Blankenstein:
Spoken like a true realtard.
" in the end the renter will end up paying more for renting "
Really? How about the enormous amount of people who bought at extremely inflated prices during the bubble? They have to make interest payments for the life of the loan, pay property taxes and maintain the home. If they can't sell for a great deal more than they paid, they were essentially "RENTING" the home - they don't get their interest, taxes and maintanence costs back. Also, we are in housing bubble 2.0 and when it pops, good luck getting the sales price you paid for the home. Your "rent" will be even higher for that home you "bought."
gimme soma dat:
It's never been a better time to buy/sell/rent/invest. Consult your local REALTOR®.
Dewey Cheatum Howe:
Sounds like phase II of Georgism being put into action. Phase I was the idea of individual property ownership (but no allodial titles). Only problem you can't tax land if no one has any money to pay for it, including the landlords when you go away from individual property ownership. If you can't get an allodial title for your property you don't own it period regardless of taxation because the property can always be confiscated without using force. You are always renting one way or the other.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgism
Kasperfx:
I seen this coming years a geo when the private equity firms started buying up and inflating the overpriced SFH market, their plan is to now dump the overpriced SFH to the "joe Real estate investor and keep the inflated notes/debt . this is a sure sign thats its time to pass the hot potato !.
Lmo Mutton:
We have to create the bubble to see if it pops.
venturen:
do we have to rescue them when it blows up...I assume the Federal Government backs all of these loans? Getting tired of rescuing billionaires
markar:
This should be amazingly profitable for the small/mid sized landlord. On top of maintenance costs, vacancy rates, and mgt. fees now they can add mortgage payments to the mix. Not to speak of the lack of economies of scale managing single family homes scattered around.
Handful of Dust:
"Just walk away...."
Why pay rent? Live for free for months before you get thrown out just make sure you have sumthing lined up elsewhere first.
But....many landlords and aprtment complexes simply don't care if you have stiffed the last guy 'cause they're hurting so bad for renters right now in many places. I read somewhere occupancy rates in places like South Dakota and the Houston area have plunged so apartment complex managers are desperate. I saw this in the DFW area during the 1980's recession...the area turned downward very badly and pretty nice apartment complexes became trash by handing out those "first-3 months free" deals. It attracts a certain crowd.
If you are plannin gon buying a house [as crazy as that sounds] be sure to stay as far away as possible from apartment complexes since this downturn may cause the same apartment ghettoes i saw in the 1980's.
shovelhead:
Brilliant idea.
Timesharing your overinflated, soon to be NPL's, to the chumps on the other end of the Bigger Fool conga line.
Kasperfx:
Good example of craziness this Fed funded SFH market has become, take a look at this18,000 Sq Ft beauty http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhom ... -Cir_For... , now look at were it is, google maphttps://www.google.com/maps/place/Es ... 92b4417c3a it's in a gated community of 3/4k sf homes with great views of the powerlines lines .. who the f would live it that place? WTF ,, anyone have a suker for this one? lol
Lin S:
Cathay Bank has been promoting this for awhile to mainland Chinese with cash.
More recently, I noticed a For Sale-type sign in front of the house on my block (suburban Los Angeles area), which instead read, "for lease." After sitting vacant for three months, a Caucasian family with nice cars has moved in.
Maybe that's the trend now: wealthy Chinese landlords living somewhere else, buy up houses and rent them to Americans who cannot afford a house of their own, and who are instead forced to pay exorbitant rents.
How will all of this end?
GreaterFool1965:
From the PE firms' perspective, this is brilliant. They want out, so they are providing vendor financing. I.e. they are willing to accept their cash over time instead of all upfront to sell their properties to other 'investors'. Then, to get out of the credit risk they have taken on, they securitize this vendor financing and sell it to other investors, who want the yield from lending money to small investors who want to get into the RE market. Briliant! They get out of their RE investments, with one 'investor' owning the property and other 'investors' holding the note from the first investor. Rinse. Repeat.
treasureX:
As a landlord, I think this is a useful product. Having to come up with a 30% down payment, I feel, eliminates the "speculators". When you have the ability to come up with that kind of cash it changes you decision making process.
mendolover:
There's a rebound in the housing market?
Dicen...
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 7:26:57
- Tsipras
Ha pedido a sus ministros menos palabras y más acciones
Considera que el ECB aún tiene "la soga en su cuello"
Descarta la salida de Grecia del Euro porque "ama Europa"
Quiere emitir deuda a corto plazo para cubrir vencimientos de financiación...si el ECB no está de acuerdo, asumirán una gran responsabilidad
- Ministro de finanzas alemán
Un pago rápido es factible si el Gobierno griego implementa las reformas
Como hipótesis el Gobierno griego podría tener ya detalles de su programa de reformas en pocas semanas
El límite es a finales de junio
- Regling (ESM)
Grecia debe pagar toda la deuda recibida del resto de la Eurozona
Los discursos desde Atenas han sido en ocasiones irritantes
- Reuter
Grecia ha pagado 310 M. EUR al FMI
- Fitch
Salida de Grecia del EUR posible, pero el riesgo sistémico improbable
Con todo, Europa podría sufrir un shock con la salida
El coste de un posible default de Grecia en la deuda del ECB y del Banco Central Griego es manejable
Podría ocurrir precisamente que la hipotética salida de Grecia fortalezca la Unión
- Draghi
Ayer el Presidente del ECB dijo que no permitirá al Tesoro griego emitir deuda a corto plazo por encima del límite establecido
El ECB no es una institución política que tome decisiones políticas: en las circunstancias actuales no tomará la deuda como colateral en la inyección de fondos
- Stournaras (Banco Central de Grecia)
Es importante que la próxima reunión del Eurogrupo el lunes sea exitosa
La banca griega en general está bien capitalizada, no hay problema con las cifras de depósitos
José Luis Martínez Campuzano de Citi
7:50 La UE podría imponer aranceles de productos de acero inoxidable a China y Taiwán
Algunas fuentes sugieren que la UE va a imponer aranceles a la importación de productos laminados de acero inoxidable en frío procedentes de China y Taiwán.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 7:21 pm
¿Quién acertará los datos de empleo en EE.UU.?
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 7:52:22
Goldman Sachs: Creación de empleo no agrícola (C.E.A) 220.000. Tasa desempleo 5,60%
SEB: C.E.A. 210.000. 5,60%
Morgan Stanley: C.E.A. 250.000. 5,60%
RBS: C.E.A 260.000. 5,60%
Credit Suisse: 220.000. 5,6%
Danske: 235.000. 5,6%
Deutsche Bank: 250.000. 5,5%
ANZ: 210.000. 5,6%
Nomura: 230.000. 5.6%
BTMU: 257.000.
BNP Paribas: 250.000. 5,5%
Citi: 200.000.
Barclays: 250.000. 5,6%
BoA Merrill Lynch: 250.000. 5,6%
Credit Agricole: 245.000. 5,6%
8:19 El spread entre el bono EEUU y el alemán en máximos de 1989
El diferencial entre el bono EEUU a 10 años y su homólogo alemán se ha ampliado a 176 puntos básicos, el nivel más alto desde mayo de 1989, algo que sugiere que el euro dólar podría caer a la paridad.
8:31 Empleo no agrícola EEUU febrero 295.000 vs 240.000 esperado
Tasa desempleo 5,5% vs 5,6% esperado
La economía estadounidense creó 295.000 puestos de trabajo en febrero en comparación con una lectura revisada de 239.000 en enero, según las últimas cifras del Departamento de Trabajo. La tasa de desempleo cayó al 5,5 por ciento desde el 5,7 por ciento del mes anterior.
Los economistas esperaban que el informe mostrara un incremento de 240.000 en las nóminas en febrero y la tasa de desempleo bajara al 5,6 por ciento.
El mercado laboral de Estados Unidos ha registrado ganancias por encima de 200.000 en 12 meses consecutivos, la racha más larga en más de una década.
Las ganancias promedio por hora subieron un 0,1%, o 3 centavos de dólar, a 24,78 dólares, manteniendo el cambio interanual. Los economistas pronosticado un crecimiento del 0,2%. Las ganancias medias semanales también subieron un 0,1%, a 857,39 dólares, lo que representa un crecimiento del 2,6%.
Promedio de horas trabajadas semanalmente 34,6 vs 34,6 esperado.
Datos positivos para los mercados de acciones y el dólar USA.
8:30 Balanza comercial EEUU -41.800 mlns dólares vs -41.700 mlns consenso
Las exportaciones cayeron un 2,9% en enero y las importaciones un 3,9%.
Dato moderadamente negativo para los mercados de acciones y el dólar.
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 7:52:22
Goldman Sachs: Creación de empleo no agrícola (C.E.A) 220.000. Tasa desempleo 5,60%
SEB: C.E.A. 210.000. 5,60%
Morgan Stanley: C.E.A. 250.000. 5,60%
RBS: C.E.A 260.000. 5,60%
Credit Suisse: 220.000. 5,6%
Danske: 235.000. 5,6%
Deutsche Bank: 250.000. 5,5%
ANZ: 210.000. 5,6%
Nomura: 230.000. 5.6%
BTMU: 257.000.
BNP Paribas: 250.000. 5,5%
Citi: 200.000.
Barclays: 250.000. 5,6%
BoA Merrill Lynch: 250.000. 5,6%
Credit Agricole: 245.000. 5,6%
8:19 El spread entre el bono EEUU y el alemán en máximos de 1989
El diferencial entre el bono EEUU a 10 años y su homólogo alemán se ha ampliado a 176 puntos básicos, el nivel más alto desde mayo de 1989, algo que sugiere que el euro dólar podría caer a la paridad.
8:31 Empleo no agrícola EEUU febrero 295.000 vs 240.000 esperado
Tasa desempleo 5,5% vs 5,6% esperado
La economía estadounidense creó 295.000 puestos de trabajo en febrero en comparación con una lectura revisada de 239.000 en enero, según las últimas cifras del Departamento de Trabajo. La tasa de desempleo cayó al 5,5 por ciento desde el 5,7 por ciento del mes anterior.
Los economistas esperaban que el informe mostrara un incremento de 240.000 en las nóminas en febrero y la tasa de desempleo bajara al 5,6 por ciento.
El mercado laboral de Estados Unidos ha registrado ganancias por encima de 200.000 en 12 meses consecutivos, la racha más larga en más de una década.
Las ganancias promedio por hora subieron un 0,1%, o 3 centavos de dólar, a 24,78 dólares, manteniendo el cambio interanual. Los economistas pronosticado un crecimiento del 0,2%. Las ganancias medias semanales también subieron un 0,1%, a 857,39 dólares, lo que representa un crecimiento del 2,6%.
Promedio de horas trabajadas semanalmente 34,6 vs 34,6 esperado.
Datos positivos para los mercados de acciones y el dólar USA.
8:30 Balanza comercial EEUU -41.800 mlns dólares vs -41.700 mlns consenso
Las exportaciones cayeron un 2,9% en enero y las importaciones un 3,9%.
Dato moderadamente negativo para los mercados de acciones y el dólar.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 7:22 pm
8:45 El euro dólar se desploma tras el fuerte dato de empleo EEUU
El dato de empleo en Estados Unidos, por encima de lo esperado, ha provocado una fuerte apreciación del dólar USA llevando al euro dólar a nuevos mínimos multianuales.
La moneda común retrocede un 1,36% frente al dólar a 1,0880.
8:57 Suben las apuestas a una subida de tipos de la Fed
El buen dato de empleo en Estados Unidos ha provocado una subida de los futuros sobre los Fed Funds.
La última vez que la tasa de desempleo estaba en los niveles actuales del 5,5%, los tipos de la Fed estaban en el 5,5%.
9:15 Subida de los rendimientos de los bonos EEUU tras el buen dato de empleo
A pesar de un crecimiento del salario mediocre en febrero, los mercados de bonos parecen estar descontando una subida de tipos antes de lo que pensaban hace horas. Los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro a corto plazo se dispararon ya que los inversores vendieron posiciones en bonos a dos, tres y cinco años, a raíz de un fuerte aumento de las nóminas.
El rendimiento de los bonos a dos años, que se mueve inversamente a su precio, ascendió 5 puntos básicos, hasta el 0,69 por ciento, mientras que el rendimiento del bono a cinco años subió 7 puntos básicos, hasta el 1,64 por ciento. El rendimiento a 10 años subió 6 puntos básicos, hasta el 2,18 por ciento, cerca de su nivel más alto del año.
9:39 EUR/USD intradía: la curva descendente prevalece
CMC Markets
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 1,106
Preferencia: Posiciones cortas debajo de 1,106 con objetivos en 1,0985 y 1,094 en extensión.
Escenario alternativo: Arriba de 1,106 buscar mayor indicación al alza con 1,11 y 1,115 como objetivos.
Comentario técnico: El RSI muestra tendencias mixtas con dirección alcista.
El dato de empleo en Estados Unidos, por encima de lo esperado, ha provocado una fuerte apreciación del dólar USA llevando al euro dólar a nuevos mínimos multianuales.
La moneda común retrocede un 1,36% frente al dólar a 1,0880.
8:57 Suben las apuestas a una subida de tipos de la Fed
El buen dato de empleo en Estados Unidos ha provocado una subida de los futuros sobre los Fed Funds.
La última vez que la tasa de desempleo estaba en los niveles actuales del 5,5%, los tipos de la Fed estaban en el 5,5%.
9:15 Subida de los rendimientos de los bonos EEUU tras el buen dato de empleo
A pesar de un crecimiento del salario mediocre en febrero, los mercados de bonos parecen estar descontando una subida de tipos antes de lo que pensaban hace horas. Los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro a corto plazo se dispararon ya que los inversores vendieron posiciones en bonos a dos, tres y cinco años, a raíz de un fuerte aumento de las nóminas.
El rendimiento de los bonos a dos años, que se mueve inversamente a su precio, ascendió 5 puntos básicos, hasta el 0,69 por ciento, mientras que el rendimiento del bono a cinco años subió 7 puntos básicos, hasta el 1,64 por ciento. El rendimiento a 10 años subió 6 puntos básicos, hasta el 2,18 por ciento, cerca de su nivel más alto del año.
9:39 EUR/USD intradía: la curva descendente prevalece
CMC Markets
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 1,106
Preferencia: Posiciones cortas debajo de 1,106 con objetivos en 1,0985 y 1,094 en extensión.
Escenario alternativo: Arriba de 1,106 buscar mayor indicación al alza con 1,11 y 1,115 como objetivos.
Comentario técnico: El RSI muestra tendencias mixtas con dirección alcista.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 7:29 pm
How's That Deflation Working Out For You?
T.D:
The BLS put out their monthly CPI lie last week. They issued the proclamation that inflation is dead. Did you know your costs are 0.1% lower than they were one year ago. They then used these deflation numbers to proclaim your real wages soared last month. It’s all good. The American consumer is so flush with cash, they decided to spend less money for the second month in a row. The Wall Street badboys are so happy with declining consumer spending, declining corporate profits, and a global recession, they pushed the NASDAQ up to 5,000 for the first time in 15 years. Hey!!! That was the year 2000. Things really got better after that milestone.
So we know gasoline prices have plummeted in the last year (but are up 20% in the last month), but I’m trying to think of other things I use in my everyday life that have declined in price. Maybe going through the BLS detailed list will jog my memory. Here is the link to their data:
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid1501.pdf
Let’s see how much deflation we’ve experienced in the last year for things we need to live our everyday lives.
* Beef and veal +22.5%
* Ground beef +21.0%
* Steaks +14.9%
* Pork +7.4%
* Ham +11.5%
* Whole Chicken +6.1%
* Fresh Fish +3.5%
* Eggs +8.2%
* Cheese +7.8%
* Fresh Vegetables +4.3%
* Lettuce +12.2%
* Tomatoes +9.6%
* Coffee +6.7%
* Butter +19.5%
* Restaurant food +3.1%
* Housing +2.9%
* Hotels +7.6%
* Owners Equivalent Rent +2.6%
* Homeowners Insurance +5.6%
* Electricity +2.5%
* Water & Sewer +5.5%
* Home Repairs +4.4%
* Footwear +2.6%
* Car Insurance +5.0%
* Parking Fees & Tolls +2.3%
* Medicinal Drugs +4.2%
* Prescription Drugs +5.6%
* Hospital Services +4.3%
* Veterinarian Services +3.2%
* Sporting Events +3.6%
* Newspapers & Magazines +4.6%
* College Tuition +3.6%
* Educational Books & Supplies +6.5%
* Grade School & High School Tuition +4.0%
* Childcare & Nursery School +3.0%
* Postage +3.6%
* Cigarettes +2.5%
* Financial Services +5.7%
* Tax Return Prep +9.3%
These figures are directly from the BLS website. These are the annual price increases of things most Americans need to purchase on a regular basis. I know most of them affect me every day. My weekly grocery bill is much higher than it was one year ago, and we don’t buy nearly as much steak or beef as we did last year.
The price of oil and gas has certainly declined by the 30% or so in the BLS figures, but it doesn’t come close to covering the price increase in food and other living expenses. The BLS declares we are experiencing deflation and our wages are expanding in real terms. It’s a bold faced lie. The other items declining in price are mostly discretionary items which might be purchased every few years. Furniture, appliances, computers and TVs are falling in price. I didn’t buy any of those items in the last year, so the lower prices had ZERO impact on me.
Apparel falls in price, but is made so cheaply in Chinese slave labor camps, you only get half the use out of it before you have to replace it. I’m guessing the BLS hasn’t factored that into their little calculation.
And now for the BIGGEST LIE in the entire report. The have the balls to tell you that health insurance only makes up 0.753% of your entire annual budget and it has FALLEN by 0.5% in the last year. This must be some cruel Obamacare joke perpetrated by these government apparatchiks. I haven’t met anyone who has seen their health insurance costs go down in the last year. My premiums went up by 20% and my annual family deductible went from $0 to $2,000. How the BLS can get away with issuing this drivel is beyond my comprehension. It’s pure and utter lie.
I wonder if the sheep actually believe what the government peddles. Does anyone with two brain cells think their daily living expenses are declining? Do they really think their wages are going a lot farther? Evidently not, because they have stopped spending money.
9:53 Berenberg cree que la probabilidad de un Grexit se sitúa en el 25%
Los analistas de Berenberg dicen que las posibilidades de una salida de Grecia se mantienen en el 25%, ya que las finanzas públicas continúan como la nación ha pronosticado para pagar al FMI este mes. Asimismo, el BCE no ha permitido a Grecia elevar su límite de emisión de letras.
T.D:
The BLS put out their monthly CPI lie last week. They issued the proclamation that inflation is dead. Did you know your costs are 0.1% lower than they were one year ago. They then used these deflation numbers to proclaim your real wages soared last month. It’s all good. The American consumer is so flush with cash, they decided to spend less money for the second month in a row. The Wall Street badboys are so happy with declining consumer spending, declining corporate profits, and a global recession, they pushed the NASDAQ up to 5,000 for the first time in 15 years. Hey!!! That was the year 2000. Things really got better after that milestone.
So we know gasoline prices have plummeted in the last year (but are up 20% in the last month), but I’m trying to think of other things I use in my everyday life that have declined in price. Maybe going through the BLS detailed list will jog my memory. Here is the link to their data:
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpid1501.pdf
Let’s see how much deflation we’ve experienced in the last year for things we need to live our everyday lives.
* Beef and veal +22.5%
* Ground beef +21.0%
* Steaks +14.9%
* Pork +7.4%
* Ham +11.5%
* Whole Chicken +6.1%
* Fresh Fish +3.5%
* Eggs +8.2%
* Cheese +7.8%
* Fresh Vegetables +4.3%
* Lettuce +12.2%
* Tomatoes +9.6%
* Coffee +6.7%
* Butter +19.5%
* Restaurant food +3.1%
* Housing +2.9%
* Hotels +7.6%
* Owners Equivalent Rent +2.6%
* Homeowners Insurance +5.6%
* Electricity +2.5%
* Water & Sewer +5.5%
* Home Repairs +4.4%
* Footwear +2.6%
* Car Insurance +5.0%
* Parking Fees & Tolls +2.3%
* Medicinal Drugs +4.2%
* Prescription Drugs +5.6%
* Hospital Services +4.3%
* Veterinarian Services +3.2%
* Sporting Events +3.6%
* Newspapers & Magazines +4.6%
* College Tuition +3.6%
* Educational Books & Supplies +6.5%
* Grade School & High School Tuition +4.0%
* Childcare & Nursery School +3.0%
* Postage +3.6%
* Cigarettes +2.5%
* Financial Services +5.7%
* Tax Return Prep +9.3%
These figures are directly from the BLS website. These are the annual price increases of things most Americans need to purchase on a regular basis. I know most of them affect me every day. My weekly grocery bill is much higher than it was one year ago, and we don’t buy nearly as much steak or beef as we did last year.
The price of oil and gas has certainly declined by the 30% or so in the BLS figures, but it doesn’t come close to covering the price increase in food and other living expenses. The BLS declares we are experiencing deflation and our wages are expanding in real terms. It’s a bold faced lie. The other items declining in price are mostly discretionary items which might be purchased every few years. Furniture, appliances, computers and TVs are falling in price. I didn’t buy any of those items in the last year, so the lower prices had ZERO impact on me.
Apparel falls in price, but is made so cheaply in Chinese slave labor camps, you only get half the use out of it before you have to replace it. I’m guessing the BLS hasn’t factored that into their little calculation.
And now for the BIGGEST LIE in the entire report. The have the balls to tell you that health insurance only makes up 0.753% of your entire annual budget and it has FALLEN by 0.5% in the last year. This must be some cruel Obamacare joke perpetrated by these government apparatchiks. I haven’t met anyone who has seen their health insurance costs go down in the last year. My premiums went up by 20% and my annual family deductible went from $0 to $2,000. How the BLS can get away with issuing this drivel is beyond my comprehension. It’s pure and utter lie.
I wonder if the sheep actually believe what the government peddles. Does anyone with two brain cells think their daily living expenses are declining? Do they really think their wages are going a lot farther? Evidently not, because they have stopped spending money.
9:53 Berenberg cree que la probabilidad de un Grexit se sitúa en el 25%
Los analistas de Berenberg dicen que las posibilidades de una salida de Grecia se mantienen en el 25%, ya que las finanzas públicas continúan como la nación ha pronosticado para pagar al FMI este mes. Asimismo, el BCE no ha permitido a Grecia elevar su límite de emisión de letras.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 7:34 pm
"Patient" - What's In A Word?
T.D:
After yet another masterly performance before Congress – one which was immediately confounded by the usual cacophony of cross-talk from the Pigeons and Doves (no Hawks!) among her colleagues – Madame Yellen has left no-one really the wiser as to what the all-things-to-all-men Federal Reserve thinks it is actually doing with regard to monetary policy.
Is she ‘patient’ or not? And is ‘patient’ a nudge-nudge, wink-wink code for a period stretching beyond the next few FOMC meetings or is it just a tacit admission that the Fed will start checking its parachute harness only after the plane’s engines have at last caught fire?
Given all this prevarication, have you lost patience with the whole weary rigmarole, as have we, Dear Reader? If so, can we suggest you join us in setting aside your frustrations by concentrating on the one abiding truth of current policy: that even if there does exist a door marked ‘EXIT’ in the haunted house in which the world’s central bankers have long confined themselves, it would be one guarded by that most fearsome of all the ghastly bogeymen of economic myth – the Ghost of ’37.
But why not, you ask? Is the Fed not right to hold fire in this world of ‘secular stagnation’ Is it not only prudent to avoid tipping the country headlong into ‘deflation’ by spooking the financial markets and so risking a full-scale reprise of the Lehman moment of six years ago?
Perhaps not. For even as has been belatedly recognised by the ‘professional second-hand dealers in ideas’ who write, for example, for the FT – when not flitting to Davos or popping up to sing for their supper at self-flattering symposia sponsored by billionaire financial St. Augustins (‘O Lord, help me eradicate all inequality, but just not by setting a personal example’) – what the world urgently needs is not any further incentive to take on debt. but a means of expunging some of its gross, existing burden of the stuff.
Yes, without any acknowledgement of the error of their ways and lacking any display of contrition at the long misery to which their pontifications have greatly contributed, the Clerisy are starting to realise that they may as well help Atlas to shrug off his crushing load and that the world must thereafter be ordered to allow the newly liberated Titan to enjoy as much freedom as possible (‘structural’ reforms must be enacted, as they put it) if he is to help rebuild both his and our prosperity.
It is almost mischievous to say so but, in the circumstances, a genuine bout of deflation could actually represent a useful Plan B. After all, few can argue that the authorities’ Plan A has so far been a rather dismal failure; that the Powers-that-Be have not managed to alleviate the real impact of all that debt as they had planned, in an inflation of anything other than the price of prestige property, race-horse yearlings, modernist daubings, and all manner of financial assets. To their mounting frustration, their efforts so far have achieved little more than to ignite a version of inflation which has served only to aggravate the divide between the rest of us poor saps and the same plutocratic 1% which is so vilified by the very bleeding heart Progressives who are to be found at the forefront of the mob noisily advocating the current policy mix.
Without wishing to call the glib ‘liquidationist’ slur down upon our heads, one might point out that the one guaranteed way to cancel debt is to allow a sufficiently rapid deflation that creditors can no longer hold out for the soothing money-illusion balm of a repayment in debased coin but must instead face up to the reality that their debtors are unable to comply with the terms of their mutual contract as originally drawn up.
If you agree with a man that you will feed him and his co-workers for a month in exchange for them delivering a tonne of coal to you at the end of the period and he later finds he and his team cannot possibly comply with his undertaking, it serves no very great purpose to redefine the mass which makes up a tonne to half its former value in place of either accepting the reduced physical repayment your debtor can make for what it is, or of otherwise working out some alternative scheme of mutually-agreed recompense which will at least allow him and his mates the chance to continue to make a living – an activity from which you might yet hope to derive some ancillary benefits.
Inflation is not, therefore, a panacea, especially when the principal means of injecting the poison into the economic circulation is by encouraging people to continue to borrow more than they should.
Deflation in this sense is, of course, unmitigatedly ugly but it is at least a purgative. The soothing inflationary alternative nurtures a more chronic disease in place of that febrile crisis, but this is an illness whose mortality rate may well turn out to be higher, not lower, than its more acute cousin. Arguably, too, it is one which introduces even more inequity into the system for while neither the struggling debtor, nor the prudent, middling sort see any benefit from the asset-heavy, differentiated increase in prices, the members of the speculative class make out like the state-sponsored bandits they are.
QE may thus prove to be little more in form than an issue of letters of marque to our era’s financial privateers on a truly unimaginable scale. Every new higher close on the stock market and every notch lower in bond yields and credit spreads should therefore be added to the charge sheet of financial larceny, even if the move does not end up inducing a panicky rush for the wheelbarrows.
But, in any case, what do we mean by ‘deflation’? In truth this should imply an increased perception that money has become more scarce, whether because the quantity available has actually shrunk or because money – final-settlement, trust-no-man money – is being demanded in place of the Good-time Charlie credit which was formerly allowed to assume some of its functions.
15-02-27 Bank Credit
On that score, we can hardly talk of the United States being at risk of ‘deflation’. To consult but two of the more timely gauges of the financial temper of the times, commerical bank balance sheets – minus the hoard of excess reserves they have been forced to pile up at the Fed – are again growing smartly, rising by 7.8% YOY, close to the best in five years and not too far removed from the 8.4% median of the two decades preceding the collapse of Lehman. Money proper is also not in short supply, rising 10.4% nominal, 8.1% real in the past twelve months and so moving far, far above the long-term trend.
15-02-27 USM1+
Even if we do succumb to the dubious practice of defining deflation by means of a simple fall in what we imagine to be the general price level, it is not at all clear that any ‘threat’ to any but the most confirmed sufferer of katatimophobia exists either at present.
Take the Cleveland Fed’ s Median CPI index, for example, an index whose primary virtue is that it throws out the outliers, high and low, and so is less affected by either positive or negative ‘shocks’ to small numbers of its constituents.
As it has for some little while now, this is giving a thoroughly, unexceptional, if not impressively stable reading: one which, moreover, manages to meet that cabbalistic ideal of modern central bankerhood of a rise of close to 2% per annum – at which sacred pace, we are constantly assured, the doors to earthly paradise will instantly be thrown open.
15-02-27 MCPI
And lest this observation give rise to the opposite argument that if the maintenance of this Babylonianly perfect rate requires no countermeasures on the downside, it need call forth no monetary tightening either, just be aware that, as for much of the past four years, this leaves the real Fed Funds rate at highly unsettling 2%-negative. For comparison, the seventeen years of the so-called ‘Great Moderation’ between 1992 and 2008 saw a typical CPI rate not much more elevated than at present – at 2.7% – but also experienced a nominal funds rate of around 4% and an ex-post real one of plus-1.2%.
Given that, with the benefit of hindsight, this supposed golden era was the one in which were actively sowing the seeds of our own ruin, it might give pause for thought about quite how much harm our masters ‘ stubbornly accommodative stance is causing us again today.
T.D:
After yet another masterly performance before Congress – one which was immediately confounded by the usual cacophony of cross-talk from the Pigeons and Doves (no Hawks!) among her colleagues – Madame Yellen has left no-one really the wiser as to what the all-things-to-all-men Federal Reserve thinks it is actually doing with regard to monetary policy.
Is she ‘patient’ or not? And is ‘patient’ a nudge-nudge, wink-wink code for a period stretching beyond the next few FOMC meetings or is it just a tacit admission that the Fed will start checking its parachute harness only after the plane’s engines have at last caught fire?
Given all this prevarication, have you lost patience with the whole weary rigmarole, as have we, Dear Reader? If so, can we suggest you join us in setting aside your frustrations by concentrating on the one abiding truth of current policy: that even if there does exist a door marked ‘EXIT’ in the haunted house in which the world’s central bankers have long confined themselves, it would be one guarded by that most fearsome of all the ghastly bogeymen of economic myth – the Ghost of ’37.
But why not, you ask? Is the Fed not right to hold fire in this world of ‘secular stagnation’ Is it not only prudent to avoid tipping the country headlong into ‘deflation’ by spooking the financial markets and so risking a full-scale reprise of the Lehman moment of six years ago?
Perhaps not. For even as has been belatedly recognised by the ‘professional second-hand dealers in ideas’ who write, for example, for the FT – when not flitting to Davos or popping up to sing for their supper at self-flattering symposia sponsored by billionaire financial St. Augustins (‘O Lord, help me eradicate all inequality, but just not by setting a personal example’) – what the world urgently needs is not any further incentive to take on debt. but a means of expunging some of its gross, existing burden of the stuff.
Yes, without any acknowledgement of the error of their ways and lacking any display of contrition at the long misery to which their pontifications have greatly contributed, the Clerisy are starting to realise that they may as well help Atlas to shrug off his crushing load and that the world must thereafter be ordered to allow the newly liberated Titan to enjoy as much freedom as possible (‘structural’ reforms must be enacted, as they put it) if he is to help rebuild both his and our prosperity.
It is almost mischievous to say so but, in the circumstances, a genuine bout of deflation could actually represent a useful Plan B. After all, few can argue that the authorities’ Plan A has so far been a rather dismal failure; that the Powers-that-Be have not managed to alleviate the real impact of all that debt as they had planned, in an inflation of anything other than the price of prestige property, race-horse yearlings, modernist daubings, and all manner of financial assets. To their mounting frustration, their efforts so far have achieved little more than to ignite a version of inflation which has served only to aggravate the divide between the rest of us poor saps and the same plutocratic 1% which is so vilified by the very bleeding heart Progressives who are to be found at the forefront of the mob noisily advocating the current policy mix.
Without wishing to call the glib ‘liquidationist’ slur down upon our heads, one might point out that the one guaranteed way to cancel debt is to allow a sufficiently rapid deflation that creditors can no longer hold out for the soothing money-illusion balm of a repayment in debased coin but must instead face up to the reality that their debtors are unable to comply with the terms of their mutual contract as originally drawn up.
If you agree with a man that you will feed him and his co-workers for a month in exchange for them delivering a tonne of coal to you at the end of the period and he later finds he and his team cannot possibly comply with his undertaking, it serves no very great purpose to redefine the mass which makes up a tonne to half its former value in place of either accepting the reduced physical repayment your debtor can make for what it is, or of otherwise working out some alternative scheme of mutually-agreed recompense which will at least allow him and his mates the chance to continue to make a living – an activity from which you might yet hope to derive some ancillary benefits.
Inflation is not, therefore, a panacea, especially when the principal means of injecting the poison into the economic circulation is by encouraging people to continue to borrow more than they should.
Deflation in this sense is, of course, unmitigatedly ugly but it is at least a purgative. The soothing inflationary alternative nurtures a more chronic disease in place of that febrile crisis, but this is an illness whose mortality rate may well turn out to be higher, not lower, than its more acute cousin. Arguably, too, it is one which introduces even more inequity into the system for while neither the struggling debtor, nor the prudent, middling sort see any benefit from the asset-heavy, differentiated increase in prices, the members of the speculative class make out like the state-sponsored bandits they are.
QE may thus prove to be little more in form than an issue of letters of marque to our era’s financial privateers on a truly unimaginable scale. Every new higher close on the stock market and every notch lower in bond yields and credit spreads should therefore be added to the charge sheet of financial larceny, even if the move does not end up inducing a panicky rush for the wheelbarrows.
But, in any case, what do we mean by ‘deflation’? In truth this should imply an increased perception that money has become more scarce, whether because the quantity available has actually shrunk or because money – final-settlement, trust-no-man money – is being demanded in place of the Good-time Charlie credit which was formerly allowed to assume some of its functions.
15-02-27 Bank Credit
On that score, we can hardly talk of the United States being at risk of ‘deflation’. To consult but two of the more timely gauges of the financial temper of the times, commerical bank balance sheets – minus the hoard of excess reserves they have been forced to pile up at the Fed – are again growing smartly, rising by 7.8% YOY, close to the best in five years and not too far removed from the 8.4% median of the two decades preceding the collapse of Lehman. Money proper is also not in short supply, rising 10.4% nominal, 8.1% real in the past twelve months and so moving far, far above the long-term trend.
15-02-27 USM1+
Even if we do succumb to the dubious practice of defining deflation by means of a simple fall in what we imagine to be the general price level, it is not at all clear that any ‘threat’ to any but the most confirmed sufferer of katatimophobia exists either at present.
Take the Cleveland Fed’ s Median CPI index, for example, an index whose primary virtue is that it throws out the outliers, high and low, and so is less affected by either positive or negative ‘shocks’ to small numbers of its constituents.
As it has for some little while now, this is giving a thoroughly, unexceptional, if not impressively stable reading: one which, moreover, manages to meet that cabbalistic ideal of modern central bankerhood of a rise of close to 2% per annum – at which sacred pace, we are constantly assured, the doors to earthly paradise will instantly be thrown open.
15-02-27 MCPI
And lest this observation give rise to the opposite argument that if the maintenance of this Babylonianly perfect rate requires no countermeasures on the downside, it need call forth no monetary tightening either, just be aware that, as for much of the past four years, this leaves the real Fed Funds rate at highly unsettling 2%-negative. For comparison, the seventeen years of the so-called ‘Great Moderation’ between 1992 and 2008 saw a typical CPI rate not much more elevated than at present – at 2.7% – but also experienced a nominal funds rate of around 4% and an ex-post real one of plus-1.2%.
Given that, with the benefit of hindsight, this supposed golden era was the one in which were actively sowing the seeds of our own ruin, it might give pause for thought about quite how much harm our masters ‘ stubbornly accommodative stance is causing us again today.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 7:37 pm
10:01 ¿Podría la Fed subir tipos en junio?
Enrique Díaz, del grupo Ebury, cre que la Reserva Federal podria subir tipos en junio: "Este es un buen día para los alcistas en el dólar. Las últimas cifras de empleo superaron las expectativas de los mercados, provocando una revalorización superior al punto porcentual del dólar frente al euro."
"En cuanto al impacto en las divisas, con el BCE introduciendo más QE esta semana, es difícil que el euro se recupere de su reciente caída. Los datos de empleo pueden ser la luz verde que la Fed ha estado esperando para subir en las tasas de interés. Deberíamos ver una subida tan pronto como en junio de este año, y la tasa a un día podría terminar el año en torno al nivel del 1%."
¿Cuánto tiempo más reinará el dólar USA como reserva del mundo?
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 9:43:00
Cuando se trata de intentar saber cuál será el futuro de la situación del dólar como moneda de reserva del mundo, el gráfico más importante puede ser el hecho de que los EE.UU. están ahora sepultados tan deplorablemente en deuda que otro conflicto militar global parece inevitable, según comenta Taylor d. de Zerohedge.
O la monetización virtualmente ilimitada de la deuda para preservar la ilusión de que EE.UU. no está en quiebra, impulsando al S&P a máximos históricos en este proceso.
O el impacto marginal de cada dólar adicional en nueva deuda genera cada vez menos crecimiento económico.
Pero el "gráfico más importante", en sentido literal y metafóricamente, que determinará cuánto tiempo más reinará el dólar USA como reserva del mundo, es el siguiente: size of US army since 1946.
10:08 Bono EEUU 10 años: Objetivo en el 3,05%
El rendimiento a 10 años fue incapaz de perder el soporte de 2013 (círculo en azul) y la reacción fue un rebote al alza.
A medida que la economía de Estados Unidos (y sus datos) continúan mejorando los analistas de Citi creen que el rendimiento del bono a 10 años podría probar el máximo de enero de 2014 en 3,05%, incluso a finales de año.
Resistencia provisional en el área 2,39%-2,42% que contuvo los rebotes de 2011 y 2012.
Enrique Díaz, del grupo Ebury, cre que la Reserva Federal podria subir tipos en junio: "Este es un buen día para los alcistas en el dólar. Las últimas cifras de empleo superaron las expectativas de los mercados, provocando una revalorización superior al punto porcentual del dólar frente al euro."
"En cuanto al impacto en las divisas, con el BCE introduciendo más QE esta semana, es difícil que el euro se recupere de su reciente caída. Los datos de empleo pueden ser la luz verde que la Fed ha estado esperando para subir en las tasas de interés. Deberíamos ver una subida tan pronto como en junio de este año, y la tasa a un día podría terminar el año en torno al nivel del 1%."
¿Cuánto tiempo más reinará el dólar USA como reserva del mundo?
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 9:43:00
Cuando se trata de intentar saber cuál será el futuro de la situación del dólar como moneda de reserva del mundo, el gráfico más importante puede ser el hecho de que los EE.UU. están ahora sepultados tan deplorablemente en deuda que otro conflicto militar global parece inevitable, según comenta Taylor d. de Zerohedge.
O la monetización virtualmente ilimitada de la deuda para preservar la ilusión de que EE.UU. no está en quiebra, impulsando al S&P a máximos históricos en este proceso.
O el impacto marginal de cada dólar adicional en nueva deuda genera cada vez menos crecimiento económico.
Pero el "gráfico más importante", en sentido literal y metafóricamente, que determinará cuánto tiempo más reinará el dólar USA como reserva del mundo, es el siguiente: size of US army since 1946.
10:08 Bono EEUU 10 años: Objetivo en el 3,05%
El rendimiento a 10 años fue incapaz de perder el soporte de 2013 (círculo en azul) y la reacción fue un rebote al alza.
A medida que la economía de Estados Unidos (y sus datos) continúan mejorando los analistas de Citi creen que el rendimiento del bono a 10 años podría probar el máximo de enero de 2014 en 3,05%, incluso a finales de año.
Resistencia provisional en el área 2,39%-2,42% que contuvo los rebotes de 2011 y 2012.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 7:38 pm
10:24 Deutsche Bank cree que el PIB de China podría caer al 6,8% en el primer semestre
Análisis de Deutsche Bank
En China, el Congreso Nacional Popular ha establecido unos objetivos de crecimiento e inflación en línea con lo esperado por los analistas de Deutsche Bank.
Para 2015 el crecimiento del PIB se sitúa “alrededor” del 7% (vs. 7,5% en 2014), y en inflación, el nuevo objetivo es del 3% (vs. 3,5% en 2014).
No hay señales de nuevas medidas de estímulo, en la medida que el objetivo de déficit para este año prácticamente no cambia.
Los analistas de Deutsche Bank creen que el crecimiento podría caer en el primer semestre del año hasta un 6,8% anual, con más riesgos a la baja que al alza.
10:16 Petróleo Brent. Por encima de soporte
Los precios iniciaron una recuperación esperada, con los compradores ahora consolidando por debajo del máximo del rango desarrollado en febrero.
Desde aquí, una ruptura por debajo del soporte de canal en 60.50 abriría las puertas a una caída al soporte en 58.17. Alternativamente, un cierre por encima del máximos del 17 de febrero en 62.98 nos dejaria un objetivo en la expansión de Fibonacci del 38,2% en 64.58 dólares.
10:49 Oro intradía: resistencia clave de corto plazo en 1209
CMC Markets
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 1209
Preferencia: Posiciones cortas debajo de 1209 con objetivos en 1195 y 1190,1 en extensión.
Escenario alternativo: Arriba de 1209 buscar mayor indicación al alza con 1214,75 y 1219,9 como objetivos.
Comentario técnico: Mientras la resistencia en 1209 no sea sobrepasada, el riesgo de un quiebre debajo de 1195 se mantiene alto.
10:44 No habrá equilibrio en el mercado petrolero si no se para el crecimiento de producción
Los analistas de UBS dicen que para que el mercado del petróleo se equilibre, el crecimiento de la producción fuera de la OPEP tiene que detenerse en la segunda mitad de este año.
10:38 BNP cree que la corona sueca descenderá más en el corto plazo
Aunque se recuperará en el segundo semestre
Los analistas de BNP Paribas dicen que la corona sueca (SEK) podría caer aún más ya que el Riksbank (el banco central sueco) mantiene su retórica pasiva. Sin embargo, el banco considera que es posible que la corona sueca se recupere en el segundo semestre ya que la mejora de la economía alemana impulsará las exportaciones suecas.
Análisis de Deutsche Bank
En China, el Congreso Nacional Popular ha establecido unos objetivos de crecimiento e inflación en línea con lo esperado por los analistas de Deutsche Bank.
Para 2015 el crecimiento del PIB se sitúa “alrededor” del 7% (vs. 7,5% en 2014), y en inflación, el nuevo objetivo es del 3% (vs. 3,5% en 2014).
No hay señales de nuevas medidas de estímulo, en la medida que el objetivo de déficit para este año prácticamente no cambia.
Los analistas de Deutsche Bank creen que el crecimiento podría caer en el primer semestre del año hasta un 6,8% anual, con más riesgos a la baja que al alza.
10:16 Petróleo Brent. Por encima de soporte
Los precios iniciaron una recuperación esperada, con los compradores ahora consolidando por debajo del máximo del rango desarrollado en febrero.
Desde aquí, una ruptura por debajo del soporte de canal en 60.50 abriría las puertas a una caída al soporte en 58.17. Alternativamente, un cierre por encima del máximos del 17 de febrero en 62.98 nos dejaria un objetivo en la expansión de Fibonacci del 38,2% en 64.58 dólares.
10:49 Oro intradía: resistencia clave de corto plazo en 1209
CMC Markets
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 1209
Preferencia: Posiciones cortas debajo de 1209 con objetivos en 1195 y 1190,1 en extensión.
Escenario alternativo: Arriba de 1209 buscar mayor indicación al alza con 1214,75 y 1219,9 como objetivos.
Comentario técnico: Mientras la resistencia en 1209 no sea sobrepasada, el riesgo de un quiebre debajo de 1195 se mantiene alto.
10:44 No habrá equilibrio en el mercado petrolero si no se para el crecimiento de producción
Los analistas de UBS dicen que para que el mercado del petróleo se equilibre, el crecimiento de la producción fuera de la OPEP tiene que detenerse en la segunda mitad de este año.
10:38 BNP cree que la corona sueca descenderá más en el corto plazo
Aunque se recuperará en el segundo semestre
Los analistas de BNP Paribas dicen que la corona sueca (SEK) podría caer aún más ya que el Riksbank (el banco central sueco) mantiene su retórica pasiva. Sin embargo, el banco considera que es posible que la corona sueca se recupere en el segundo semestre ya que la mejora de la economía alemana impulsará las exportaciones suecas.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 7:47 pm
¿Crash bursátil en 2016? Empieza la cuenta atrás
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 10:57:00
Es hora de iniciar la cuenta atrás para el crash del mercado bursátil de 2016. No, esta no es una predicción de una corrección pequeña. Espera un desplome del 50%. La mayoría de los inversores no quieren ver esta cuenta atrás.
Psicología Básica. Se mantendrán optimistas y se entusiasmarán acerca de cómo los mercados europeos superan máximos históricos, el Nasdaq sigue batiendo sin descanso sus récords y el Ibex 35 se aproxima a niveles históricos.
Un dato. 73 empresas están ahora en el club de Start-up de Wall Street que superan los 10.000 millones de dólares: Uber (41.000 millones de dólares), SpaceX (12.000 millones) y Snapchat (10.000 millones). El corazón se acelera cuando leemos que las salidas a Bolsa en China han convertido en multimillonarios a hasta hace poco personas completamente desconocidas, como Jack Ma, Alibaba, con una fortuna que ahora se valora en 35.100 millones de dólares.
Sí, las salidas a Bolsa de compañías tecnológicas lideran la euforia. Es fácil entender por qué los inversores no quieren escuchar las advertencias, ni quieren saber nada de una cuenta atrás para el crash de 2016. Pero se acerca. Está casi garantizado, dice Paul B. Farrell en un artículo en MarketWatch.
"Muchos analistas de los ciclos teóricos advirtieron sobre una crisis entre 2012-2013, pero se consiguió evitar gracias al estímulo de los bancos centrales. O más bien se retrasó, añadiendo más fuerza a la siguiente crisis.
¿Por qué la crisis no sucederá antes? ¿Por qué no en 2015? Es verdad que Mark Hulbert ya advirtió que el "riesgo del mercado de valores en Estados Unidos es ahora más alto de lo que era en la era punto com". Sí, un descenso importante es posible. Sue Chang escribe que podríamos asistir a una corrección de entre un 10%-20% en julio.
Pero también sabemos que los mercados son normalmente alcistas hasta el tercer año de un ciclo presidencial. Así que si no hay un crash este año, ¿por qué molestarse con las advertencias y una cuenta atrás?
Los economistas conductuales hace mucho tiempo que nos han estado diciendo que los inversores optan por permanecer en la negación hasta que es demasiado tarde, sin haber aprendido las lecciones de la historia, cuando el mercado se derrumbó en 2008, 2000 o 1929, cuando colectivamente perdieron miles de millones.
Deja vu 2008
Vamos a comparar 2016 con otros crash anteriores: 2008, 2000 y 1929. Teoría de los ciclos básicos. Y este próximo desencadenará pérdidas más grandes que en 2000 y 2008.
Jeremy Grantham predice que "alrededor de las elecciones presidenciales, o poco después, la burbuja del mercado va a estallar, como las burbujas siempre lo hacen, y volverá a su valor de tendencia, alrededor de la mitad de su pico anterior."
El Dow Jones bajará un 50%, repitiendo los comportamientos de 2008, 2000 y 1929
Eso se traducirá en el Dow Jones, de desplomarse hoy, un descenso a alrededor de 9.000. Ahora esto es inimaginable. No es extraño que nuestro cerebro no quiera reconocer esto. En su lugar, preferimos oír las previsiones optimistas.
Deja vu 2000: exuberancia irracional, las tecnologías de las punto-com
Recuerde 1999. Hace sólo 16 años. La "exuberancia irracional". Renovada manía por el mercado de valores. Wall Street estaba caliente. Las acciones se disparaban. En aquel entonces los inversores exigían rendimientos anuales de locura: los 19 principales fondos de inversión tuvieron un rendimiento anual de entre el 179% al 323%.
Los accionistas de las punto com esperaban subidas del 100% sobre cero ventas. La gente se disgustaba si ganaba sólo un 30%. La jubilación anticipada era la conversación de moda en las peluquerías y reuniones de amigos. Luego vino el crash tecnológico de 2000. Dos guerras. Una recesión de 30 meses. Para 2005, el mercado inmobiliario mundial sufría otro boom. Wall Street y el inverso de calle eran adictos a la próxima manía... Más nunca es suficiente. Somos nuestros peores enemigos.
Los escépticos pueden pensar que es una broma. Lejos de ello. Hay una gran lección para todos los inversores en esta victoria. Pero nunca aprendemos. Estamos instalados en la negación.
Deja vu de la crisis de 1929, y la larga Gran Depresión
"Estados Unidos es más vulnerable hoy que incluso durante la Gran Depresión y la Guerra Civil", dice Thom Hartmann, en "El Crash de 2016." ¿Por qué? "Debido a que los pilares de la democracia que una vez apoyaron a la clase media han sido corrompidos, y sin ellos, América se tambalea al borde de la próxima Gran Depresión".
"Estados Unidos está en medio de una implosión económica que podría hacer que la Gran Depresión pareciera un juego de niños", advierte Hartmann. Su análisis es brutal, considera que "la fachada de Estados Unidos pronto se desintegrará para revelar el núcleo en descomposición, donde el poder corporativo y multimillonario y la codicia han sustituido a la infraestructura democrática y la gobernabilidad.
El Crash de 2016: Lamento que no lo quiera oír
¿Por qué no podremos detectar el crash? ¿Estamos ciegos? No. De hecho, las advertencias son siempre altas y claras como el cristal. Así que ¿por qué no las escuchan la mayoría de los inversores? He aquí por qué:
Los crash seguirán produciéndose. El 20 de marzo de 2000 advertimos: "¿El próximo crash? Lo sentimos, usted nunca lo oirá venir". Pero pocos escucharon. El mercado perdió 8 billones de dólares.
Después, vino otra oleada de advertencias desde 2004 a 2008. Pocos escucharon. Luego, otro crash. Y Wall Street perdió 10 billones de dólares.
A lo largo de gran parte de 2012-2013, los expertos advirtieron sobre el mercado. Pero en diciembre, el Wall Street Journal reveló que después de 13 años en territorio negativo, finalmente se acabó la "década perdida". Y los inversores volvieron a entrar en el mercado con un sentimiento alcista.
Y aquí estamos de nuevo: advirtiendo sobre un crash para 2016 y nadie, ni Wall Street, el inversor medio, la Fed, la SEC, los políticos de Washington, se preparan para la siguiente crisis. Escuche atentamente, la cuenta atrás para el Crash de 2016 ha comenzado."
Fuentes: Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
Carlos Montero
Lacartadelabolsa
11:05 Cómo destruir una moneda
Jeremy Cook, de World First, ha publicado este gráfico que muestra cuanto se ha debilitado el euro desde que el Banco Central Europeo impuso tasas de interés negativas en los bancos comerciales hace nueve meses.
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 10:57:00
Es hora de iniciar la cuenta atrás para el crash del mercado bursátil de 2016. No, esta no es una predicción de una corrección pequeña. Espera un desplome del 50%. La mayoría de los inversores no quieren ver esta cuenta atrás.
Psicología Básica. Se mantendrán optimistas y se entusiasmarán acerca de cómo los mercados europeos superan máximos históricos, el Nasdaq sigue batiendo sin descanso sus récords y el Ibex 35 se aproxima a niveles históricos.
Un dato. 73 empresas están ahora en el club de Start-up de Wall Street que superan los 10.000 millones de dólares: Uber (41.000 millones de dólares), SpaceX (12.000 millones) y Snapchat (10.000 millones). El corazón se acelera cuando leemos que las salidas a Bolsa en China han convertido en multimillonarios a hasta hace poco personas completamente desconocidas, como Jack Ma, Alibaba, con una fortuna que ahora se valora en 35.100 millones de dólares.
Sí, las salidas a Bolsa de compañías tecnológicas lideran la euforia. Es fácil entender por qué los inversores no quieren escuchar las advertencias, ni quieren saber nada de una cuenta atrás para el crash de 2016. Pero se acerca. Está casi garantizado, dice Paul B. Farrell en un artículo en MarketWatch.
"Muchos analistas de los ciclos teóricos advirtieron sobre una crisis entre 2012-2013, pero se consiguió evitar gracias al estímulo de los bancos centrales. O más bien se retrasó, añadiendo más fuerza a la siguiente crisis.
¿Por qué la crisis no sucederá antes? ¿Por qué no en 2015? Es verdad que Mark Hulbert ya advirtió que el "riesgo del mercado de valores en Estados Unidos es ahora más alto de lo que era en la era punto com". Sí, un descenso importante es posible. Sue Chang escribe que podríamos asistir a una corrección de entre un 10%-20% en julio.
Pero también sabemos que los mercados son normalmente alcistas hasta el tercer año de un ciclo presidencial. Así que si no hay un crash este año, ¿por qué molestarse con las advertencias y una cuenta atrás?
Los economistas conductuales hace mucho tiempo que nos han estado diciendo que los inversores optan por permanecer en la negación hasta que es demasiado tarde, sin haber aprendido las lecciones de la historia, cuando el mercado se derrumbó en 2008, 2000 o 1929, cuando colectivamente perdieron miles de millones.
Deja vu 2008
Vamos a comparar 2016 con otros crash anteriores: 2008, 2000 y 1929. Teoría de los ciclos básicos. Y este próximo desencadenará pérdidas más grandes que en 2000 y 2008.
Jeremy Grantham predice que "alrededor de las elecciones presidenciales, o poco después, la burbuja del mercado va a estallar, como las burbujas siempre lo hacen, y volverá a su valor de tendencia, alrededor de la mitad de su pico anterior."
El Dow Jones bajará un 50%, repitiendo los comportamientos de 2008, 2000 y 1929
Eso se traducirá en el Dow Jones, de desplomarse hoy, un descenso a alrededor de 9.000. Ahora esto es inimaginable. No es extraño que nuestro cerebro no quiera reconocer esto. En su lugar, preferimos oír las previsiones optimistas.
Deja vu 2000: exuberancia irracional, las tecnologías de las punto-com
Recuerde 1999. Hace sólo 16 años. La "exuberancia irracional". Renovada manía por el mercado de valores. Wall Street estaba caliente. Las acciones se disparaban. En aquel entonces los inversores exigían rendimientos anuales de locura: los 19 principales fondos de inversión tuvieron un rendimiento anual de entre el 179% al 323%.
Los accionistas de las punto com esperaban subidas del 100% sobre cero ventas. La gente se disgustaba si ganaba sólo un 30%. La jubilación anticipada era la conversación de moda en las peluquerías y reuniones de amigos. Luego vino el crash tecnológico de 2000. Dos guerras. Una recesión de 30 meses. Para 2005, el mercado inmobiliario mundial sufría otro boom. Wall Street y el inverso de calle eran adictos a la próxima manía... Más nunca es suficiente. Somos nuestros peores enemigos.
Los escépticos pueden pensar que es una broma. Lejos de ello. Hay una gran lección para todos los inversores en esta victoria. Pero nunca aprendemos. Estamos instalados en la negación.
Deja vu de la crisis de 1929, y la larga Gran Depresión
"Estados Unidos es más vulnerable hoy que incluso durante la Gran Depresión y la Guerra Civil", dice Thom Hartmann, en "El Crash de 2016." ¿Por qué? "Debido a que los pilares de la democracia que una vez apoyaron a la clase media han sido corrompidos, y sin ellos, América se tambalea al borde de la próxima Gran Depresión".
"Estados Unidos está en medio de una implosión económica que podría hacer que la Gran Depresión pareciera un juego de niños", advierte Hartmann. Su análisis es brutal, considera que "la fachada de Estados Unidos pronto se desintegrará para revelar el núcleo en descomposición, donde el poder corporativo y multimillonario y la codicia han sustituido a la infraestructura democrática y la gobernabilidad.
El Crash de 2016: Lamento que no lo quiera oír
¿Por qué no podremos detectar el crash? ¿Estamos ciegos? No. De hecho, las advertencias son siempre altas y claras como el cristal. Así que ¿por qué no las escuchan la mayoría de los inversores? He aquí por qué:
Los crash seguirán produciéndose. El 20 de marzo de 2000 advertimos: "¿El próximo crash? Lo sentimos, usted nunca lo oirá venir". Pero pocos escucharon. El mercado perdió 8 billones de dólares.
Después, vino otra oleada de advertencias desde 2004 a 2008. Pocos escucharon. Luego, otro crash. Y Wall Street perdió 10 billones de dólares.
A lo largo de gran parte de 2012-2013, los expertos advirtieron sobre el mercado. Pero en diciembre, el Wall Street Journal reveló que después de 13 años en territorio negativo, finalmente se acabó la "década perdida". Y los inversores volvieron a entrar en el mercado con un sentimiento alcista.
Y aquí estamos de nuevo: advirtiendo sobre un crash para 2016 y nadie, ni Wall Street, el inversor medio, la Fed, la SEC, los políticos de Washington, se preparan para la siguiente crisis. Escuche atentamente, la cuenta atrás para el Crash de 2016 ha comenzado."
Fuentes: Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
Carlos Montero
Lacartadelabolsa
11:05 Cómo destruir una moneda
Jeremy Cook, de World First, ha publicado este gráfico que muestra cuanto se ha debilitado el euro desde que el Banco Central Europeo impuso tasas de interés negativas en los bancos comerciales hace nueve meses.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 7:53 pm
11:18 S&P 500 consolidando tras caer a un mínimo de dos semanas
Los precios perdieron ayer el apoyo de 2.101,40, con los vendedores ahora teniendo un objetivo bajista en el 23,6% de retroceso de Fibonacci en 2086.40. Una ruptura por debajo de esta barrera abriría las puertas a una extensión de las caídas a al retroceso de Fibonacci de 38,2% en 2.066,00.
Por contra, la superación de los 2.101,40 elevaría la probabilidad de una subida al máximo del 25 de febrero en 2.119,40.
11:13 Bank of America recomienda largos en los bonos italianos frente al bund alemán
Los analistas de Bank of America Merrill Lynch creen que no la flexbilizacion cuantitativa (QE) del BCE todavía no está totalmente descontado y recomienda posiciones largas en los bonos italianos a 10 años frente al bund alemán con un objetivo en los 80 puntos básicos.
11:25 La ridícula divergencia entre el PER y el crecimiento de los beneficios
Mientras que la divergencia entre la debilidad de los datos macro y la exuberancia de las cotizaciones en bolsa es ya bien conocida, hay una mayor amenaza que se cierne sobre el mercado americano.
Mientras que las relaciones entre el precio y los beneficios se han disparado en el último año, las expectativas de crecimiento de las ganancias se han desplomado. Tanto es así que los analistas más veteranos y los traders ven ahora esta divergencia como "ridícula".
¿Cómo de ridícula? Peor que en 1987, 2002, y 2011, cuando las acciones cayeron más de un 20%.
On February 7, 2009 Bernanke Admitted What It Was All About
T.D.
Back on February 7, 2009, one month before the Fed unveiled its massive (for its time) first episode of Quantitative Easing, the Federal Reserve was flailing. And, as revealed today by the latest annual batch of Fed transcript releases, precisely one month before the Fed commenced monetizing tens of billions in government debt and MBS, Bernanke held perhaps the longest conference call in the Fed's history (the transcript alone is 65 pages) in which he revealed that he was working on something entirely different: an "aggregator bank" concept, which would have been essentially a quasi-nationalization of the US banks whereby Fed funds is commingled with the bank's capital in order to avert public attention from the trillions of bad assets on the bank books.
It is during the discussion of this plan, which mysteriously disappeared from the Fed's plan of action between February 7 and a month later, when America set off on its path from which 7 years later it is still unable to ween itself (and in fact now everyone else is also pursuing QE), that we learn for a fact precisely what most have suspect if not known for a fact, namely that the resulting "bailout" of the US economy by way of QE was nothing more than a way to keep bank shareholders "thrilled."
From the February 7 transcript:
The purpose of the meeting today is for me to discuss with you the Treasury’s proposed financial stabilization plan and, in particular, the Fed’s proposed role in that overall structure. This is a “close hold.” There have been a number of leaks, as often happens, which is very counterproductive; but I think the Fed has done well, and I would not like those leaks to come from the Fed. So I appreciate your keeping your confidence close.
We have been discussing, and by “we” I mean primarily the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, and the OCC, the last week or so—with a lot of staff work before that—a plan that Secretary Geithner will propose on Monday at 12:30 in a speech at the Treasury. They have been very wide-ranging discussions, and, frankly, there was little in the way of resolution or focus until very recently—only in the last 24 hours or so have we begun to see where Secretary Geithner wants to take the plan; in fact, we got a very substantial revision of the document this morning at 9:15, so you can see this is very much a work in progress.
But given the schedule for Secretary Geithner to announce the plan on Monday, I thought this was an opportune point for us to review the plan and the Fed’s potential role. As you’ll see when I go through the plan with you, the details are fairly lacking. There is an overall structure. That, in part, is on purpose. The political strategy is to provide an overall structure with some detail, but not a great deal of detail, with the idea that the public discussion and the congressional discussion will create some buy-in on the political side. It’s like selling a car: Only when the customer is sold on the leather seats do you actually reveal the price. So the strategy, again, is to provide the framework to get the Congress involved within certain parameters, and then, only when there is some consensus on how the plan will work and what the key elements will be, to negotiate whether additional funding beyond $350 billion is necessary.
But I think there are some advantages to that from a political point of view. I will say that both I and the staff—Bill Dudley and others—are somewhat concerned, at least given the way things stand now, about the market reaction. First, the lack of details will create some uncertainty and concern, particularly because there’s not a great deal said about the “problem children,” the BAC and Citi. Secondly, I think the markets will be disappointed in the following sense: As I will describe, this is a real truth-telling kind of plan. It’s fundamentalist. It’s not about giving the banks a break. It’s not about using accounting principles to give them backdoor capital. It’s very much market-oriented and “tough love.” And I think we all will like that. I like that. But the banks’ shareholders aren’t going to be thrilled about it.
Beautiful!
For one brief , fleeting instant, the Fed was willing to do what is right, and no only not halt Mark to Market (the Fed itself admits accounting gimmicks boost banks), but force banks to recognize their losses without "giving them backdoor capital" - something else the Fed now admits to doing. But the reason why the Fed's plan would have been applauded is that as Bernanke says it is "market-oriented" and "tough love."
But most importantly, the Fed revealed what the overarching motive behind the entire economic "bailout" has been- in other words what it was all about: the banks’ shareholders.
And.... he was right, even if he "liked it." Because someone else apparently did not.
Precisely one month later, unclear why, the Fed changed course 180 degrees, and instead of dispensing "tough love" and going with a market-oriented means to fixing the economy, one which however would have wiped out all bank shareholders, Bernanke unleashed central-planning unlike anything even seen in the USSR. Not only that, but we also know what QE is by what it isn't:
* It isn't a "real truth-telling kind of plan
* It isn't "fundamentalist"
* It is "about "giving the banks a break"
* It is about "using accounting principles to give the banks backdoor capital"
* It is about "non-market oriented and unquestioned love"... by the Fed.
In short, it is why 6 years later bank shareholders couldn't be more "thrilled" with QE.
As for why it hasn't worked for everyone else, well, one can only imagine the kind of "meticulous attention" to detail the Fed uses if, on its official transcript, it made the most epic, glaring error possible. Because it would appear that in the eye of the Fed, QE is now even distorting the days of the week...
Source: Fed
Los precios perdieron ayer el apoyo de 2.101,40, con los vendedores ahora teniendo un objetivo bajista en el 23,6% de retroceso de Fibonacci en 2086.40. Una ruptura por debajo de esta barrera abriría las puertas a una extensión de las caídas a al retroceso de Fibonacci de 38,2% en 2.066,00.
Por contra, la superación de los 2.101,40 elevaría la probabilidad de una subida al máximo del 25 de febrero en 2.119,40.
11:13 Bank of America recomienda largos en los bonos italianos frente al bund alemán
Los analistas de Bank of America Merrill Lynch creen que no la flexbilizacion cuantitativa (QE) del BCE todavía no está totalmente descontado y recomienda posiciones largas en los bonos italianos a 10 años frente al bund alemán con un objetivo en los 80 puntos básicos.
11:25 La ridícula divergencia entre el PER y el crecimiento de los beneficios
Mientras que la divergencia entre la debilidad de los datos macro y la exuberancia de las cotizaciones en bolsa es ya bien conocida, hay una mayor amenaza que se cierne sobre el mercado americano.
Mientras que las relaciones entre el precio y los beneficios se han disparado en el último año, las expectativas de crecimiento de las ganancias se han desplomado. Tanto es así que los analistas más veteranos y los traders ven ahora esta divergencia como "ridícula".
¿Cómo de ridícula? Peor que en 1987, 2002, y 2011, cuando las acciones cayeron más de un 20%.
On February 7, 2009 Bernanke Admitted What It Was All About
T.D.
Back on February 7, 2009, one month before the Fed unveiled its massive (for its time) first episode of Quantitative Easing, the Federal Reserve was flailing. And, as revealed today by the latest annual batch of Fed transcript releases, precisely one month before the Fed commenced monetizing tens of billions in government debt and MBS, Bernanke held perhaps the longest conference call in the Fed's history (the transcript alone is 65 pages) in which he revealed that he was working on something entirely different: an "aggregator bank" concept, which would have been essentially a quasi-nationalization of the US banks whereby Fed funds is commingled with the bank's capital in order to avert public attention from the trillions of bad assets on the bank books.
It is during the discussion of this plan, which mysteriously disappeared from the Fed's plan of action between February 7 and a month later, when America set off on its path from which 7 years later it is still unable to ween itself (and in fact now everyone else is also pursuing QE), that we learn for a fact precisely what most have suspect if not known for a fact, namely that the resulting "bailout" of the US economy by way of QE was nothing more than a way to keep bank shareholders "thrilled."
From the February 7 transcript:
The purpose of the meeting today is for me to discuss with you the Treasury’s proposed financial stabilization plan and, in particular, the Fed’s proposed role in that overall structure. This is a “close hold.” There have been a number of leaks, as often happens, which is very counterproductive; but I think the Fed has done well, and I would not like those leaks to come from the Fed. So I appreciate your keeping your confidence close.
We have been discussing, and by “we” I mean primarily the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, and the OCC, the last week or so—with a lot of staff work before that—a plan that Secretary Geithner will propose on Monday at 12:30 in a speech at the Treasury. They have been very wide-ranging discussions, and, frankly, there was little in the way of resolution or focus until very recently—only in the last 24 hours or so have we begun to see where Secretary Geithner wants to take the plan; in fact, we got a very substantial revision of the document this morning at 9:15, so you can see this is very much a work in progress.
But given the schedule for Secretary Geithner to announce the plan on Monday, I thought this was an opportune point for us to review the plan and the Fed’s potential role. As you’ll see when I go through the plan with you, the details are fairly lacking. There is an overall structure. That, in part, is on purpose. The political strategy is to provide an overall structure with some detail, but not a great deal of detail, with the idea that the public discussion and the congressional discussion will create some buy-in on the political side. It’s like selling a car: Only when the customer is sold on the leather seats do you actually reveal the price. So the strategy, again, is to provide the framework to get the Congress involved within certain parameters, and then, only when there is some consensus on how the plan will work and what the key elements will be, to negotiate whether additional funding beyond $350 billion is necessary.
But I think there are some advantages to that from a political point of view. I will say that both I and the staff—Bill Dudley and others—are somewhat concerned, at least given the way things stand now, about the market reaction. First, the lack of details will create some uncertainty and concern, particularly because there’s not a great deal said about the “problem children,” the BAC and Citi. Secondly, I think the markets will be disappointed in the following sense: As I will describe, this is a real truth-telling kind of plan. It’s fundamentalist. It’s not about giving the banks a break. It’s not about using accounting principles to give them backdoor capital. It’s very much market-oriented and “tough love.” And I think we all will like that. I like that. But the banks’ shareholders aren’t going to be thrilled about it.
Beautiful!
For one brief , fleeting instant, the Fed was willing to do what is right, and no only not halt Mark to Market (the Fed itself admits accounting gimmicks boost banks), but force banks to recognize their losses without "giving them backdoor capital" - something else the Fed now admits to doing. But the reason why the Fed's plan would have been applauded is that as Bernanke says it is "market-oriented" and "tough love."
But most importantly, the Fed revealed what the overarching motive behind the entire economic "bailout" has been- in other words what it was all about: the banks’ shareholders.
And.... he was right, even if he "liked it." Because someone else apparently did not.
Precisely one month later, unclear why, the Fed changed course 180 degrees, and instead of dispensing "tough love" and going with a market-oriented means to fixing the economy, one which however would have wiped out all bank shareholders, Bernanke unleashed central-planning unlike anything even seen in the USSR. Not only that, but we also know what QE is by what it isn't:
* It isn't a "real truth-telling kind of plan
* It isn't "fundamentalist"
* It is "about "giving the banks a break"
* It is about "using accounting principles to give the banks backdoor capital"
* It is about "non-market oriented and unquestioned love"... by the Fed.
In short, it is why 6 years later bank shareholders couldn't be more "thrilled" with QE.
As for why it hasn't worked for everyone else, well, one can only imagine the kind of "meticulous attention" to detail the Fed uses if, on its official transcript, it made the most epic, glaring error possible. Because it would appear that in the eye of the Fed, QE is now even distorting the days of the week...
Source: Fed
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 7:57 pm
Las Bolsas consolidan los máximos multianuales tras el buen dato de empleo en EEUU
El Ibex se deja un 0,29% a 11.091,9 y el Euro Stoxx sube un 0,01%
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 11:43:11
Las acciones europeas cierran la sesión con pocos movimientos tras una semana positiva en la que se ha celebrado con máximos multianuales el inicio de un programa masivo de compra de activos por parte del Banco Central Europeo, destinado a reforzar los niveles de inflación y el crecimiento en la eurozona.
Los inversores reaccionaron con cautela a un muy buen dato de creación de empleo en Estados Unidos, por la posibilidad de que la subida de tipos se produzca antes de lo esperado.
Citigroup dijo que el programa QE fue un "importante factor que contribuyó en su decisión de elevar el precio objetivo del Stoxx 600. Los analistas de Citi dijeron a sus clientes que ahora ven el Stoxx 600 alcanzando los 450 puntos a finales de 2015, frente a una previsión anterior de 400. También dio a conocer un precio objetivo para finales de 2016 de 550, lo que sugiere un potencial del 40% desde los precios actuales.
Los índices europeos llegaron a subir cerca del punto porcentual después de conocerse que la economía de Estados Unidos creó 295.000 puestos de trabajo en febrero.
El crecimiento de los salarios, sin embargo, siguió siendo flojo. Las ganancias promedio por hora subieron un 0,1%, o 3 centavos de dólar, a 24,78 dólares, manteniendo el cambio interanual. Los economistas pronosticaron un crecimiento del 0,2%. Las ganancias medias semanales también subieron un 0,1%, a 857,39 dólares, lo que representa un crecimiento del 2,6%.
Sin embargo, este buen dato de empleo elevan las expectativas de una pronta subida de tipos en Estados Unidos, algo que ha sentado bien a los activos de riesgo.
El Dow Jones se mueve por debajo de los 18.000 puntos, algo que no sucedía desde el 20 de febrero. La rentabilidad de los bonos estadounidenses se mueve al alza descontando una subida de tipos antes de lo esperado.
El sector Materiales de Europa lidera las subidas en el viejo continente por las informaciones que sugiere que la UE impondrá aranceles a la importación de chapas laminadas de acero inoxidable en frío a China y Taiwán.
Mientras tanto, el euro dólar (EURUSD) descendió a $1.087 mientras que el dólar se fortaleció frente a sus principales rivales tras el informe de empleo de Estados Unidos. El euro cotiza a un mínimo de 12 años frente al dólar. La moneda común cayó por debajo de 1,10 dólares el jueves debido al plan de alivio cuantitativo del BCE.
La fortaleza del dólar está presionando a las materias primas, con el Brent y el WTI borrando las ganancias de la mañana y los metales preciosos cotizan en rojo. Esta tendencia también se ha filtrado a través de los mercados de divisas con las monedas de los productos básicos (CAD y AUD) debilitándose.
El sector bancario de EE.UU. tiene suficiente capital
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 12:30:00
Los test de estrés llevados a cabo por la Reserva Federal (Fed) han concluido que los 31 mayores bancos con operaciones en el país tienen suficiente capital para poder seguir prestando durante una hipotetica recesión severa.
Como añade Link Análisis, en las pruebas se contempla un paro del 10%, una depreciación del 25% en la vivienda y una caída del 60% en la Bolsa. Ahora los bancos tienen que demostrar que pueden mantener los niveles mínimos de capital tras llevar a cabo el pago de dividendos o la compra de acciones propias, con el fin de pasar la segunda ronda de test de estrés, cuyos resultados serán publicados el 11 de marzo. Esto determinará si las firmas pueden seguir adelante con sus planes de capital.
Bajo una hipotética situación de estrés el ratio de capital Tier 1 agregado de las 31 entidades examinadas cae hasta el 8,2%, por encima del nivel del 5,5% de 2009 y del 5% que la Fed considera como mínimo.
Dos bancos, Goldman Sachs y Zions Bancorp, registraron ratios cerca de los niveles mínimos establecidos por la Fed en los test publicados ayer, lo que podría limitar la distribución de beneficios a sus accionistas por parte de estas entidades.
El Ibex se deja un 0,29% a 11.091,9 y el Euro Stoxx sube un 0,01%
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 11:43:11
Las acciones europeas cierran la sesión con pocos movimientos tras una semana positiva en la que se ha celebrado con máximos multianuales el inicio de un programa masivo de compra de activos por parte del Banco Central Europeo, destinado a reforzar los niveles de inflación y el crecimiento en la eurozona.
Los inversores reaccionaron con cautela a un muy buen dato de creación de empleo en Estados Unidos, por la posibilidad de que la subida de tipos se produzca antes de lo esperado.
Citigroup dijo que el programa QE fue un "importante factor que contribuyó en su decisión de elevar el precio objetivo del Stoxx 600. Los analistas de Citi dijeron a sus clientes que ahora ven el Stoxx 600 alcanzando los 450 puntos a finales de 2015, frente a una previsión anterior de 400. También dio a conocer un precio objetivo para finales de 2016 de 550, lo que sugiere un potencial del 40% desde los precios actuales.
Los índices europeos llegaron a subir cerca del punto porcentual después de conocerse que la economía de Estados Unidos creó 295.000 puestos de trabajo en febrero.
El crecimiento de los salarios, sin embargo, siguió siendo flojo. Las ganancias promedio por hora subieron un 0,1%, o 3 centavos de dólar, a 24,78 dólares, manteniendo el cambio interanual. Los economistas pronosticaron un crecimiento del 0,2%. Las ganancias medias semanales también subieron un 0,1%, a 857,39 dólares, lo que representa un crecimiento del 2,6%.
Sin embargo, este buen dato de empleo elevan las expectativas de una pronta subida de tipos en Estados Unidos, algo que ha sentado bien a los activos de riesgo.
El Dow Jones se mueve por debajo de los 18.000 puntos, algo que no sucedía desde el 20 de febrero. La rentabilidad de los bonos estadounidenses se mueve al alza descontando una subida de tipos antes de lo esperado.
El sector Materiales de Europa lidera las subidas en el viejo continente por las informaciones que sugiere que la UE impondrá aranceles a la importación de chapas laminadas de acero inoxidable en frío a China y Taiwán.
Mientras tanto, el euro dólar (EURUSD) descendió a $1.087 mientras que el dólar se fortaleció frente a sus principales rivales tras el informe de empleo de Estados Unidos. El euro cotiza a un mínimo de 12 años frente al dólar. La moneda común cayó por debajo de 1,10 dólares el jueves debido al plan de alivio cuantitativo del BCE.
La fortaleza del dólar está presionando a las materias primas, con el Brent y el WTI borrando las ganancias de la mañana y los metales preciosos cotizan en rojo. Esta tendencia también se ha filtrado a través de los mercados de divisas con las monedas de los productos básicos (CAD y AUD) debilitándose.
El sector bancario de EE.UU. tiene suficiente capital
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 12:30:00
Los test de estrés llevados a cabo por la Reserva Federal (Fed) han concluido que los 31 mayores bancos con operaciones en el país tienen suficiente capital para poder seguir prestando durante una hipotetica recesión severa.
Como añade Link Análisis, en las pruebas se contempla un paro del 10%, una depreciación del 25% en la vivienda y una caída del 60% en la Bolsa. Ahora los bancos tienen que demostrar que pueden mantener los niveles mínimos de capital tras llevar a cabo el pago de dividendos o la compra de acciones propias, con el fin de pasar la segunda ronda de test de estrés, cuyos resultados serán publicados el 11 de marzo. Esto determinará si las firmas pueden seguir adelante con sus planes de capital.
Bajo una hipotética situación de estrés el ratio de capital Tier 1 agregado de las 31 entidades examinadas cae hasta el 8,2%, por encima del nivel del 5,5% de 2009 y del 5% que la Fed considera como mínimo.
Dos bancos, Goldman Sachs y Zions Bancorp, registraron ratios cerca de los niveles mínimos establecidos por la Fed en los test publicados ayer, lo que podría limitar la distribución de beneficios a sus accionistas por parte de estas entidades.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
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