Nasdaq 5,000 Is Different This Time... But Not In A Good Way!
TD
The robo-traders and Wall Street punters were busy painting the tape Monday, and did bump the Nasdaq composite across the magic 5,000 threshold for the first time since March 2000. But even as Wall Street urged home-gamers to “return with us to the thrilling days of yesteryear”, the caveats about this time is different were flowing with abundance:
This time, the Nasdaq at 5,000 is underpinned by substantial companies with strong sales and credible plans for growth, not wishful schemes to “monetize eyeballs” and sell pet food online.
Not exactly. This time is very different, but, as they say, not in a good way. Not even close.
Since the two days of March 9 and 10 in the year 2000 when the Nasdaq closed over the 5,000, the financial markets have been converted into central bank managed gambling halls and the global economy has bloated beyond recognition by 15 years of non-stop financial repression. Back then, a few hundred stocks were wildly over-valued based on monetizing eyeballs; now the entire market is drastically overvalued owing to the false financial market liquidity generated by $14 trillion of central bank asset monetization - mostly public debt - since the turn of the century.
As a result, the global financial system and economy are orders of magnitude more fragile and vulnerable to collapse than they were 15 years ago. Indeed, nearly all of the tail winds which managed to quickly revive markets and economic growth after the dotcom crash have now played out, and, if anything, will morph into stiff headwinds in the period immediately ahead.
For better or worse, for example, China proved to be a powerful tailwind after the turn of the century. It functioned as an enormous global locomotive that generated hyper-growth in the energy and resource industries; and which also ignited a supplier boom in a whole variety of EM industries from Brazil’s soybean and iron ore sectors to shipbuilding and semiconductor production in South Korea.
Yet this was accomplished not through healthy, balanced, market- driven investment and enterprise, but through the most spectacular credit bubble in human history. At the end of the year 2000, China’s debt was about $2 trillion and its GDP was about the same.
By contrast, today its credit market debt outstanding is about $28 trillion or 14X greater, according to McKinsey’s research. Notionally its GDP is up by 5X to about $10 trillion, but that doesn’t really mitigate the debt explosion. That’s because China’s GDP growth was a force draft concoction of state directed credit spending that resulted in massive waste and unproductive investment. Rather than catalyze permanent gains in wealth and sustainable output, its erected a phony hothouse economy which will inexorably implode and crater.
So doing, China’s imminent collapse will drive powerful waves of global deflation as its demand for iron ore, coal, petroleum, alumina, copper, manufactured components and intermediates and shipping and distribution services falters. In short, the world economy is drastically overbuilt owing to the “China bid” for materials and supplies—-meaning that what had been a source of extraordinary profits and margin expansion in the world materials and industrial economy will become a sledgehammer on prices, margins and profits in the years ahead.
At the peak in 2012-2013, upwards of 23% of S&P profits were attributable to energy and materials. But the China deflation now gaining a head of steam will vaporize these bloated profits in the years ahead, taking a huge bit out of aggregate corporate earnings.
Or take the hapless case of Europe. At the turn of the century, the single currency was an economic supernova just beginning its eruption. As is now evident, Germany’s credit rating was being seconded to inefficient, corruption-ridden welfare states all over the continent, but especially on the periphery. And for the first decade, the resulting one-time explosion of public and private credit generated by that false credit transfer did wonders for the reported GDP numbers and the profits of global corporations that answered the EU demand call. It was a tailwind on steroids.
But as is evident from the three charts below, the one-time credit boom that accompanied the euro is over and done. Public and private debt carrying capacity is tapped out. Consequently, eurozone growth hit a peak in 2008 and has flat-lined ever since. Now Europe’s traditional welfare state and dirigisme headwinds to economic growth will be compounded by an endless struggle of aging, uncompetitive economies with peak debt.
Historical Data Chart
Historical Data Chart
Historical Data Chart
Today every European country has a total debt-to-GDP ratio in excess of 300% and many such as Portugal, Ireland and France have debt burdens above 400% of national income. And that means that Europe too will be a deflationary headwind in the years ahead. They cannot stimulate with Keynesian fiscal remedies because the have reached peak public debt; and they cannot grow out from under their crushing public debt burdens through easy money and private credit expansion because households and business in most of Europe are already at peak debt.
All that remains is for the ECB to indulge in a final burst of QE style money printing in a futile effort to reignite growth. But the Draghi monetary tsunami is nothing more than a last incendiary hurrah. It will cause the Euro to eventually plunge through parity with the dollar, meaning that the tailwind of translation gains that flattered S&P profits since the turn of the century will turn into a ferocious headlwind in the years ahead as the euro stumbles toward its final demise.
Finally, consider the debt-bloated US economy. At the turn of the century total public and private debt was $28 trillion and it represented 2.6X GDP. During the next 15 years total US debt erupted to nearly $60 trillion and 3.5X GDP. That latter ratio is unsustainable and a measure of the false economy embedded in the GDP numbers. By contrast, during the pre-1970 era of healthy and sustainable US economic growth, the peacetime leverage ratio against national income was never much above 1.5X.
The bottom line is that corporate sales and profit growth in the US domestic economy after the last Nasdaq bust got a booster shot from the final burst of leverage reflected in the above ratios. Yet that means that some portion of business sales and output were being stolen from the future, not erected from enhanced enterprise and productivity. Accordingly, domestic profit growth will inherently slump in the years ahead—especially because profit margins have soared far beyond any prior historical experience and have already begun to rollover.
Needless to say, the nation’s monetary politburo remains oblivious to these global realities of peak debt and the deflationary correction now emerging after nearly two decades of lunatic money printing by the central banks. The Fed’s balance sheet did indeed explode from $500 billion when the Nasdaq last crossed 5000 to $4.5 trillion today. But even Yellen’s merry band of money printers know that eruption was a one time parlor trick that has not worked. The jig is up, and the last 15 year’s egregious inflation of financial assets by means of central bank monetary expansion cannot be repeated or even sustained.
So today what is different is not the Wall Street spiel that Nasdaq is anchored by the likes of Apple rather than Webvan. What is really different is that the broad market represented by the S&P 500 is trading at the tippy top of its historic range - 20x reported earnings - in a world where PE multiples and profits are deeply imperiled. That is, the headwinds arising from the very central bank aberration that cushioned the collapse of Nasdaq the first time around will soon come to bear on the entire market, not just the narrow sector of high flyers that confused eyeballs with earnings.
This time is indeed different. Not in a good way. Not at all
Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 8:01 pm
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 8:04 pm
El futuro será mejor
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 12:55:00
Eurostat confirma hoy que la economía de la zona EUR creció un 0.3% en el Q4 del año pasado, dejando el crecimiento anual en niveles de 0.9%. Con todo, fue un dato algo mejor al 0.2% del Q3. En el Q4 la economía norteamericana creció un 0.5 % trimestral y un 2.4% anual.
El consumo privado tuvo un crecimiento del 0.4%, cuando la inversión creció en el mismo porcentaje. Las exportaciones han aumentado un 0.8%, cuando las compras lo hacen en un 0.4%.
En este otro cuadro pueden ver el comportamiento del producto por países…
En Francia hemos conocido que el déficit comercial ha sido en enero de 3.7 bn. desde 3.2 bn. en diciembre. En Alemania la producción industrial ha crecido más de lo esperado también en enero un 0.6 % , cuando se revisa al alza el dato de diciembr hasta un crecimiento del 1.0 % (0.1 % inicialmente reportado).
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
The Scariest Spreadsheet In Fed Possession Revealed
TD
Yesterday we reported that over the past few weeks, something very disturbing has taken place at the Atlanta Fed Center for Quantitative Economic Research, which keeps a model, called GDPNow, that mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth.
According to the AtlantaFed, "the GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to “nowcast” GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add “color” to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids."
In other words, what the AtlantaFed has done is recreate the bean-counting methodology used by the BEA, and all other forecastsers, however instead of using monthly data update cadence, it does so with data in real time.
This is a problem because as we showed yesterday, this most real-time model of GDP estimation, is showing something scary: a 1.2% GDP in Q1 compared to consensus estimates in the mid-2% range, and a tumble of more than 1% to just what this same model predicted Q1 GDP would be one month ago!
What's going on here, and how is it possible that there is such a massive disconnect between the one, arguably most accurate and updated Fed forecasting model and everyone else.
Courtesy of an excel spreadsheet called, logically enough, GDPTrackingModelDataAndForecasts.xlsx (link), we can find the answer.
While we urge readers to play around with the model at their leisure, here is the bottom line: a snapshot of the weekly evolution of the summary tab, which shows precisely which line item is leading to the collapse in Q1 GDP, from 2.3% as of February 13 to half that as of March 2.
For those who are used seeing it on a cumulative basis, here is the other summary table that also lays out how the AtlantaFed reaches its shocking 1.2% GDP number:
What becomes immediately apparent is that while there has been a sharp deterioration across most sources of economic output including government spending, which is now expected to detract -0.8% from growth, Net Exports, and residential investment, it is the collapse in "Structures", aka non-residential investment, best known as the Capital expenditures spending or lack thereof by US shale companies on such items as offices and extraction structures, including oil and gas wells this is about to pummel US economic growth.
Incidentally, we previewed all of this in "The Next Victim Of Crashing Oil Prices: Housing" and "Houston, You Have A Huge Problem: One-Sixth Of US Office Space Under Construction Is In This Texas City."
Digging down into the underlying data, which feeds through the weekly updates of Atlanta Fed staffer Patrick Higgins (the cell comments are his), we have confirmation of what is about to "shock" everyone when the BEA reports its advance GDP report in two months time: it is all non-res structures, and especially petroleum and natural gas wells, which will (or rather already have) unleashed a full-blown investment shock for the US economy.
Of course, none of this should come as news: after all, just this past October, another Fed, this time the St. Loius Fed, had a must-read post on the correlation between oil pricess and business fixed investment in structures.
Most economists believe lower oil prices are positive for the economy: They lead to lower gasoline and diesel prices, which tend to reduce headline inflation, which increases consumer purchasing power. Lower oil prices also tend to reduce operating expenses for transportation firms, such as airlines, trucking, and delivery services. The sharp drop in crude oil prices since mid-June 2014 is generally expected to produce positive (if temporary) economic effects. Lower oil prices generally don’t benefit energy producers, but the vast majority of households, firms, and organizations are net consumers, not net producers; so, lower prices still tend to bring net benefits.
One way the effects of lower oil prices reveal themselves is through mining activity. (More precisely, “real private nonresidential fixed investment in mining exploration, shafts, and wells.”) In 2013, fixed private investment in mining activity was about 5 percent of total fixed private investment and only 0.8 percent of real GDP. Still, since the third quarter of 2009, mining activity has increased at a 17.1 percent annual rate—much faster than the 5.5 percent rate of gain in total fixed private investment.
As the graph [below], mining activity (which includes drilling) is positively correlated with crude oil prices. When oil prices rise, this activity increases and so does investment in it. When oil prices fall, this activity slows and investment in it falls.
How this graph was created: Search for mining investment to find the first series, then add “Crude oil prices WTI” for the second. Limit the sample to start in 1999.
We took the liberty of recreating the St Louis Fed blog graph which can be found here. It is shown below.
So it looks like indeed the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is not only accurate but is predicting precisely what will happen in the coming months.
But wait, there's more.
As was widely reported earlier this morning, oil giant Exxon became the latest major to slash CapEx as a result of plunging oil prices, and it now plans to commit some 12% less to its E&P capital spending budget in 2015, a grand total of $34 billion, compared to the $38.5 billion spent last year. Add up across all the other majors, shale and other E&P companies and suddenly you have a spending collapse in the hundreds of billions.
What this means for GDP is that 1.2% growth in Q1 may just be the beginning as capital spending collapses across the board, especially since the Atlanta Fed model description says "as more monthly source data becomes available, the GDPNow forecast for a particular quarter evolves and generally becomes more accurate."
In the meantime, for everyone else confused by such concepts as spending on non-residential structures, and capex in general, or how various components of the GDP calculation actually add up across to the bottom line number, we urge everyone to open Atlanta Fed' spreadsheet GDPTrackingModelDataAndForecasts.xlsx which may well be the "scariest" spreadsheet in the Fed's possession right now, but it is also the most informative and not burdened by non-GAAP, seasonal and various other propaganda adjustments, in order to understand why consensus is once again off by orders of magnitude from what the final Q1 GDP number will end up being, and why, no, it won't be the "weather's fault" this time.
Source: AtlantaFed and GDPTrackingModelDataAndForecasts.xls
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 12:55:00
Eurostat confirma hoy que la economía de la zona EUR creció un 0.3% en el Q4 del año pasado, dejando el crecimiento anual en niveles de 0.9%. Con todo, fue un dato algo mejor al 0.2% del Q3. En el Q4 la economía norteamericana creció un 0.5 % trimestral y un 2.4% anual.
El consumo privado tuvo un crecimiento del 0.4%, cuando la inversión creció en el mismo porcentaje. Las exportaciones han aumentado un 0.8%, cuando las compras lo hacen en un 0.4%.
En este otro cuadro pueden ver el comportamiento del producto por países…
En Francia hemos conocido que el déficit comercial ha sido en enero de 3.7 bn. desde 3.2 bn. en diciembre. En Alemania la producción industrial ha crecido más de lo esperado también en enero un 0.6 % , cuando se revisa al alza el dato de diciembr hasta un crecimiento del 1.0 % (0.1 % inicialmente reportado).
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
The Scariest Spreadsheet In Fed Possession Revealed
TD
Yesterday we reported that over the past few weeks, something very disturbing has taken place at the Atlanta Fed Center for Quantitative Economic Research, which keeps a model, called GDPNow, that mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth.
According to the AtlantaFed, "the GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. Other private forecasters use similar approaches to “nowcast” GDP growth. However, these forecasts are not updated more than once a month or quarter, are not publicly available, or do not have forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP that add “color” to the top-line number. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids."
In other words, what the AtlantaFed has done is recreate the bean-counting methodology used by the BEA, and all other forecastsers, however instead of using monthly data update cadence, it does so with data in real time.
This is a problem because as we showed yesterday, this most real-time model of GDP estimation, is showing something scary: a 1.2% GDP in Q1 compared to consensus estimates in the mid-2% range, and a tumble of more than 1% to just what this same model predicted Q1 GDP would be one month ago!
What's going on here, and how is it possible that there is such a massive disconnect between the one, arguably most accurate and updated Fed forecasting model and everyone else.
Courtesy of an excel spreadsheet called, logically enough, GDPTrackingModelDataAndForecasts.xlsx (link), we can find the answer.
While we urge readers to play around with the model at their leisure, here is the bottom line: a snapshot of the weekly evolution of the summary tab, which shows precisely which line item is leading to the collapse in Q1 GDP, from 2.3% as of February 13 to half that as of March 2.
For those who are used seeing it on a cumulative basis, here is the other summary table that also lays out how the AtlantaFed reaches its shocking 1.2% GDP number:
What becomes immediately apparent is that while there has been a sharp deterioration across most sources of economic output including government spending, which is now expected to detract -0.8% from growth, Net Exports, and residential investment, it is the collapse in "Structures", aka non-residential investment, best known as the Capital expenditures spending or lack thereof by US shale companies on such items as offices and extraction structures, including oil and gas wells this is about to pummel US economic growth.
Incidentally, we previewed all of this in "The Next Victim Of Crashing Oil Prices: Housing" and "Houston, You Have A Huge Problem: One-Sixth Of US Office Space Under Construction Is In This Texas City."
Digging down into the underlying data, which feeds through the weekly updates of Atlanta Fed staffer Patrick Higgins (the cell comments are his), we have confirmation of what is about to "shock" everyone when the BEA reports its advance GDP report in two months time: it is all non-res structures, and especially petroleum and natural gas wells, which will (or rather already have) unleashed a full-blown investment shock for the US economy.
Of course, none of this should come as news: after all, just this past October, another Fed, this time the St. Loius Fed, had a must-read post on the correlation between oil pricess and business fixed investment in structures.
Most economists believe lower oil prices are positive for the economy: They lead to lower gasoline and diesel prices, which tend to reduce headline inflation, which increases consumer purchasing power. Lower oil prices also tend to reduce operating expenses for transportation firms, such as airlines, trucking, and delivery services. The sharp drop in crude oil prices since mid-June 2014 is generally expected to produce positive (if temporary) economic effects. Lower oil prices generally don’t benefit energy producers, but the vast majority of households, firms, and organizations are net consumers, not net producers; so, lower prices still tend to bring net benefits.
One way the effects of lower oil prices reveal themselves is through mining activity. (More precisely, “real private nonresidential fixed investment in mining exploration, shafts, and wells.”) In 2013, fixed private investment in mining activity was about 5 percent of total fixed private investment and only 0.8 percent of real GDP. Still, since the third quarter of 2009, mining activity has increased at a 17.1 percent annual rate—much faster than the 5.5 percent rate of gain in total fixed private investment.
As the graph [below], mining activity (which includes drilling) is positively correlated with crude oil prices. When oil prices rise, this activity increases and so does investment in it. When oil prices fall, this activity slows and investment in it falls.
How this graph was created: Search for mining investment to find the first series, then add “Crude oil prices WTI” for the second. Limit the sample to start in 1999.
We took the liberty of recreating the St Louis Fed blog graph which can be found here. It is shown below.
So it looks like indeed the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is not only accurate but is predicting precisely what will happen in the coming months.
But wait, there's more.
As was widely reported earlier this morning, oil giant Exxon became the latest major to slash CapEx as a result of plunging oil prices, and it now plans to commit some 12% less to its E&P capital spending budget in 2015, a grand total of $34 billion, compared to the $38.5 billion spent last year. Add up across all the other majors, shale and other E&P companies and suddenly you have a spending collapse in the hundreds of billions.
What this means for GDP is that 1.2% growth in Q1 may just be the beginning as capital spending collapses across the board, especially since the Atlanta Fed model description says "as more monthly source data becomes available, the GDPNow forecast for a particular quarter evolves and generally becomes more accurate."
In the meantime, for everyone else confused by such concepts as spending on non-residential structures, and capex in general, or how various components of the GDP calculation actually add up across to the bottom line number, we urge everyone to open Atlanta Fed' spreadsheet GDPTrackingModelDataAndForecasts.xlsx which may well be the "scariest" spreadsheet in the Fed's possession right now, but it is also the most informative and not burdened by non-GAAP, seasonal and various other propaganda adjustments, in order to understand why consensus is once again off by orders of magnitude from what the final Q1 GDP number will end up being, and why, no, it won't be the "weather's fault" this time.
Source: AtlantaFed and GDPTrackingModelDataAndForecasts.xls
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 8:06 pm
Aún descontando los beneficios 2016 el S&P está sobrevalorado
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 13:10:00
Publicamos las estimaciones de resultados para los diferentes sectores del S&P 500 realizadas por Ed Yardeni. Vemos como ha reducido sus estimaciones para el conjunto del 2015 a 120$ y para 2016 a 130$. A los precios actuales esto implicaría un PER 15e de 17x y para PER 16e 16,2x. Ambos niveles por encima del promedio histórico. Es decir, aún descontando los beneficios de 2016 el S&P 500 estaría sobrevalorado.
Seguimos recomendando prudencia en la inversión en renta variable occidental. Los ratios a los que cotizan no justifican nuevas alzas por fundamentales. Únicamente la falta de alternativas y la masiva inyección de liquidez en el sistema realizada por los Bancos Centrales posibilitan estas alzas, pero cuando esas políticas monetarias empiecen a normalizarse, que lo harán de forma irremediable, nos enfrentaremos a años de baja o negativa rentabilidad en las bolsas.
Una visión más reposada de la crisis griega
Carlos Montero
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 13:59:00
Transcurridos ya unos días desde el acuerdo entre las autoridades europeas y el nuevo gobierno griego podemos hacer una reflexión más reposada. En principio tenemos que decir que la resolución del conflicto es meramente coyuntural. Se ha prorrogado en cuatro meses el rescate financiero heleno dando así tiempo para una solución definitiva –si esto es posible.
Las declaraciones tras el acuerdo de los máximos representantes de ambas partes no auguran un fácil entendimiento transcurrido ese plazo. Alemania y los países centrales de la zona euro no hablarán del tercer rescate hasta que las medidas exigidas sean implementadas en su totalidad -ya lo anticipó ayer Angela Merkel-, mientras que el ministro de finanzas griego ha declarado repetidamente que la política de austeridad en el país ha finalizado. Es decir, las partes no se han movido ni un milímetro de sus posturas iniciales, y se emplazan para la confrontación dentro de cuatro meses.
Grecia, a pesar de la impresión generalizada, ha obtenido importantes logros en la negociación. Ha conseguido enfrentar los objetivos presupuestarios de 2015 y 2016 sin los recortes exigidos por la Troika, lo cual le otorga espacio para luchar contra la pobreza en el país que según algunos observadores ha alcanzado cuotas de crisis humanitaria. “No se ha conseguido mucho, pero más de lo que se tenía antes. Podemos definirlo como una escaramuza exitosa”, afirmaba tras el acuerdo James Galbraith, profesor de economía de la Universidad de Austin Texas y asesor del gobierno griego en las negociaciones.
“Una escaramuza exitosa”, y es eso precisamente lo que ha sido. La verdadera guerra se desarrollará en apenas cuatro meses. Y en este punto me gustaría destacar que el campo de batalla no será tanto el ámbito económico como el político.
Van a confrontarse dos sensibilidades electorales muy diferenciadas. Por un lado la del gobierno griego que tiene que cumplir gran parte de sus promesas electorales, y por otro la de los gobiernos de aquellos países que por uno u otro motivo no pueden permitir que la postura helena salga victoriosa. Alemania y los países de su círculo de influencia porque sus opiniones públicas no lo entenderían, y la de España y otros países periféricos porque se corre el riesgo de que opciones como las de Syriza obtengan el poder. En suma, el acuerdo definitivo sigue estando igual de alejado que antes.
La opinión generalizada mantiene que Grecia tiene la postura débil en las negociaciones. Los mercados financieros así lo creen, por eso asumen que terminará cediendo. Yo no estaría tan seguro.
El principal factor de fuerza en las negociaciones de los acreedores internacionales es que si no siguen inyectando dinero en Grecia terminará saliendo de la zona euro lo cual sería “un drama” para sus ciudadanos. Y para que sigan apoyando al país éste tiene que cumplir con todos y cada uno de los requisitos exigidos. Pero ¿realmente sería una catástrofe?
En el corto plazo la vuelta al dracma provocaría una devaluación drástica e inmediata: El valor de los ahorros caería, el precio de las mercancías importadas se dispararía, muchas empresas tendrían dificultades para financiarse, habría huida de capitales…Sí, eso sucedería en el corto plazo. Ahora bien, una vez pasado ese shock inicial, con los controles de capitales necesarios por parte de las autoridades helenas, el país volvería a recuperar el control de su política monetaria, lo que le daría la oportunidad de hacer frente a sus problemas económicos, sus exportaciones subirían considerablemente, su sector turístico mejoraría y los costes laborales serían más competitivos.
Grecia profundizaría su recesión y la situación del país empeoraría en el futuro cercano. Algo más allá es muy probable que la economía se recuperara más rápido de lo que la gente estima. Ya habido ejemplos de esto en el pasado: Argentina en 2001 donde meses de caos fueron seguidos de años de rápido crecimiento. Islandia tuvo una experiencia similar después de su crisis financiera.
En cuanto a la zona euro, la salida de Grecia de la unión monetaria, aunque económicamente tendría un impacto limitado, provocaría una fuerte crisis en el proyecto político europeo.
Grecia está mejor dentro de la zona euro pero no a toda costa. Las concesiones que pide el gobierno heleno son totalmente asumibles por las autoridades europeas, y sobre todo por las alemanas, cuya historia económica ha demostrado estar repetidamente equivocada en sus planteamientos. Desde un punto de vista económico es asumible, no estamos tan seguros desde un punto de vista político.
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 13:10:00
Publicamos las estimaciones de resultados para los diferentes sectores del S&P 500 realizadas por Ed Yardeni. Vemos como ha reducido sus estimaciones para el conjunto del 2015 a 120$ y para 2016 a 130$. A los precios actuales esto implicaría un PER 15e de 17x y para PER 16e 16,2x. Ambos niveles por encima del promedio histórico. Es decir, aún descontando los beneficios de 2016 el S&P 500 estaría sobrevalorado.
Seguimos recomendando prudencia en la inversión en renta variable occidental. Los ratios a los que cotizan no justifican nuevas alzas por fundamentales. Únicamente la falta de alternativas y la masiva inyección de liquidez en el sistema realizada por los Bancos Centrales posibilitan estas alzas, pero cuando esas políticas monetarias empiecen a normalizarse, que lo harán de forma irremediable, nos enfrentaremos a años de baja o negativa rentabilidad en las bolsas.
Una visión más reposada de la crisis griega
Carlos Montero
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 13:59:00
Transcurridos ya unos días desde el acuerdo entre las autoridades europeas y el nuevo gobierno griego podemos hacer una reflexión más reposada. En principio tenemos que decir que la resolución del conflicto es meramente coyuntural. Se ha prorrogado en cuatro meses el rescate financiero heleno dando así tiempo para una solución definitiva –si esto es posible.
Las declaraciones tras el acuerdo de los máximos representantes de ambas partes no auguran un fácil entendimiento transcurrido ese plazo. Alemania y los países centrales de la zona euro no hablarán del tercer rescate hasta que las medidas exigidas sean implementadas en su totalidad -ya lo anticipó ayer Angela Merkel-, mientras que el ministro de finanzas griego ha declarado repetidamente que la política de austeridad en el país ha finalizado. Es decir, las partes no se han movido ni un milímetro de sus posturas iniciales, y se emplazan para la confrontación dentro de cuatro meses.
Grecia, a pesar de la impresión generalizada, ha obtenido importantes logros en la negociación. Ha conseguido enfrentar los objetivos presupuestarios de 2015 y 2016 sin los recortes exigidos por la Troika, lo cual le otorga espacio para luchar contra la pobreza en el país que según algunos observadores ha alcanzado cuotas de crisis humanitaria. “No se ha conseguido mucho, pero más de lo que se tenía antes. Podemos definirlo como una escaramuza exitosa”, afirmaba tras el acuerdo James Galbraith, profesor de economía de la Universidad de Austin Texas y asesor del gobierno griego en las negociaciones.
“Una escaramuza exitosa”, y es eso precisamente lo que ha sido. La verdadera guerra se desarrollará en apenas cuatro meses. Y en este punto me gustaría destacar que el campo de batalla no será tanto el ámbito económico como el político.
Van a confrontarse dos sensibilidades electorales muy diferenciadas. Por un lado la del gobierno griego que tiene que cumplir gran parte de sus promesas electorales, y por otro la de los gobiernos de aquellos países que por uno u otro motivo no pueden permitir que la postura helena salga victoriosa. Alemania y los países de su círculo de influencia porque sus opiniones públicas no lo entenderían, y la de España y otros países periféricos porque se corre el riesgo de que opciones como las de Syriza obtengan el poder. En suma, el acuerdo definitivo sigue estando igual de alejado que antes.
La opinión generalizada mantiene que Grecia tiene la postura débil en las negociaciones. Los mercados financieros así lo creen, por eso asumen que terminará cediendo. Yo no estaría tan seguro.
El principal factor de fuerza en las negociaciones de los acreedores internacionales es que si no siguen inyectando dinero en Grecia terminará saliendo de la zona euro lo cual sería “un drama” para sus ciudadanos. Y para que sigan apoyando al país éste tiene que cumplir con todos y cada uno de los requisitos exigidos. Pero ¿realmente sería una catástrofe?
En el corto plazo la vuelta al dracma provocaría una devaluación drástica e inmediata: El valor de los ahorros caería, el precio de las mercancías importadas se dispararía, muchas empresas tendrían dificultades para financiarse, habría huida de capitales…Sí, eso sucedería en el corto plazo. Ahora bien, una vez pasado ese shock inicial, con los controles de capitales necesarios por parte de las autoridades helenas, el país volvería a recuperar el control de su política monetaria, lo que le daría la oportunidad de hacer frente a sus problemas económicos, sus exportaciones subirían considerablemente, su sector turístico mejoraría y los costes laborales serían más competitivos.
Grecia profundizaría su recesión y la situación del país empeoraría en el futuro cercano. Algo más allá es muy probable que la economía se recuperara más rápido de lo que la gente estima. Ya habido ejemplos de esto en el pasado: Argentina en 2001 donde meses de caos fueron seguidos de años de rápido crecimiento. Islandia tuvo una experiencia similar después de su crisis financiera.
En cuanto a la zona euro, la salida de Grecia de la unión monetaria, aunque económicamente tendría un impacto limitado, provocaría una fuerte crisis en el proyecto político europeo.
Grecia está mejor dentro de la zona euro pero no a toda costa. Las concesiones que pide el gobierno heleno son totalmente asumibles por las autoridades europeas, y sobre todo por las alemanas, cuya historia económica ha demostrado estar repetidamente equivocada en sus planteamientos. Desde un punto de vista económico es asumible, no estamos tan seguros desde un punto de vista político.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 8:08 pm
14:09 UPS: la curva descendente prevalece
CMC Markets
[ UPS ]
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 108,55
Preferencia: Posiciones cortas debajo de 108,55 con objetivos en 98,3 y 94,1 en extensión.
Escenario alternativo: Arriba de 108,55 buscar mayor indicación al alza con 114,7 y 120 como objetivos.
Comentario técnico: El RSI es bajista e indica mayor descenso.
14:31 ¿Cuánto tiempo puede ignorar el mercado esta tendencia?
Las peticiones de solicitudes advirtieron durante 2006 y 2007 de una divergencia que finalmente fue el preludio de un desplome del mercado bursátil en 2008.
Aunque algunos pueden argumentar que esta vez es diferente, estamos viendo la misma clase de divergencia en los últimos meses.
15:29 Grecia: la reunión del Eurogrupo del lunes es clave
En Grecia, se mantiene la situación actual, es decir, los bancos griegos siguen sin poder utilizar los bonos públicos para descontarlos como contrapartida en las operaciones de repo. A cambio, el BCE eleva la ventana de emergencia ELA hasta 69.000 mn.€.
Esto deja como única opción a Grecia el cumplir con las reformas prometidas y poder tener acceso al desembolso del dinero restante del segundo paquete de rescate.
En este sentido, la reunión del Eurogrupo del lunes es clave, ante los rumores sobre la posibilidad de que el gobierno griego acuda con 3-4 nuevas medidas inmediatas que le permitan desbloquear parte de esta ayuda antes de finales de abril.
El papel de la tecnología y el empleo
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 15:52:00
Los robots y otras tecnologías están transformando las cadenas de suministro, el seguimiento de los elementos de la fuente al consumidor, reduciendo al mínimo el tiempo de envío y el costo, automatizando tareas de oficina y más. Pero, ¿están eliminando la necesidad de trabajadores, provocando un desempleo tecnológico crónico?
Es una pregunta sin duda provocativa. Aún más si consideramos como todas las encuestas muestran que la búsqueda de empleo que utiliza estas nuevas tecnologías aumenta, en algunos casos con verdaderos cuellos de botella que se traducen en salarios más altos. Al final, la tecnología no tendría por qué traducirse en pérdida de empleos. No al menos en los empleos de alta cualificación.
Pero lo cierto es que tratar desde un punto de vista general esta cuestión quizás no tenga mucha razón de ser. Puede ocurrir que la mecanización destruya empleos y también facilite de forma paralela el aumento en la contratación. Las autoridades deben saber evaluar el impacto en el empleo de las nuevas tecnologías, enfocando la política económica en amortiguar su efecto o maximizar sus beneficios. El autor del artículo que publica el FMI se inclina por primar los efectos beneficiosos frente a los perjuicios. En su opinión, la pérdida de empleos en el sector manufacturero pueden ser más que compensados por la creación de empleo en otras ocupaciones. ¿Están de acuerdo?.
CMC Markets
[ UPS ]
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 108,55
Preferencia: Posiciones cortas debajo de 108,55 con objetivos en 98,3 y 94,1 en extensión.
Escenario alternativo: Arriba de 108,55 buscar mayor indicación al alza con 114,7 y 120 como objetivos.
Comentario técnico: El RSI es bajista e indica mayor descenso.
14:31 ¿Cuánto tiempo puede ignorar el mercado esta tendencia?
Las peticiones de solicitudes advirtieron durante 2006 y 2007 de una divergencia que finalmente fue el preludio de un desplome del mercado bursátil en 2008.
Aunque algunos pueden argumentar que esta vez es diferente, estamos viendo la misma clase de divergencia en los últimos meses.
15:29 Grecia: la reunión del Eurogrupo del lunes es clave
En Grecia, se mantiene la situación actual, es decir, los bancos griegos siguen sin poder utilizar los bonos públicos para descontarlos como contrapartida en las operaciones de repo. A cambio, el BCE eleva la ventana de emergencia ELA hasta 69.000 mn.€.
Esto deja como única opción a Grecia el cumplir con las reformas prometidas y poder tener acceso al desembolso del dinero restante del segundo paquete de rescate.
En este sentido, la reunión del Eurogrupo del lunes es clave, ante los rumores sobre la posibilidad de que el gobierno griego acuda con 3-4 nuevas medidas inmediatas que le permitan desbloquear parte de esta ayuda antes de finales de abril.
El papel de la tecnología y el empleo
Viernes, 6 de Marzo del 2015 - 15:52:00
Los robots y otras tecnologías están transformando las cadenas de suministro, el seguimiento de los elementos de la fuente al consumidor, reduciendo al mínimo el tiempo de envío y el costo, automatizando tareas de oficina y más. Pero, ¿están eliminando la necesidad de trabajadores, provocando un desempleo tecnológico crónico?
Es una pregunta sin duda provocativa. Aún más si consideramos como todas las encuestas muestran que la búsqueda de empleo que utiliza estas nuevas tecnologías aumenta, en algunos casos con verdaderos cuellos de botella que se traducen en salarios más altos. Al final, la tecnología no tendría por qué traducirse en pérdida de empleos. No al menos en los empleos de alta cualificación.
Pero lo cierto es que tratar desde un punto de vista general esta cuestión quizás no tenga mucha razón de ser. Puede ocurrir que la mecanización destruya empleos y también facilite de forma paralela el aumento en la contratación. Las autoridades deben saber evaluar el impacto en el empleo de las nuevas tecnologías, enfocando la política económica en amortiguar su efecto o maximizar sus beneficios. El autor del artículo que publica el FMI se inclina por primar los efectos beneficiosos frente a los perjuicios. En su opinión, la pérdida de empleos en el sector manufacturero pueden ser más que compensados por la creación de empleo en otras ocupaciones. ¿Están de acuerdo?.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 8:13 pm
NFIB Chief Economist Warns "Bubble In US Net Worth Has Reached Unsustainable Heights"
The relationship of U.S. net worth to GDP appears to have reached unsustainable heights recently, by historical standards.
American consumers have about $14 trillion in debt and a net worth of over $80 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve. Net worth is the sum of the values of all assets, real and financial, that consumers own, less their debt, including mortgage debt, leases, credit cards and the like.
The wealth we hold is a way of storing purchasing power. You can sell your shares of Apple and buy “stuff”, goods and services. Ultimately, for most consumers, that’s what our wealth is used for, to acquire “stuff”. Some of our assets provide services directly, such as our houses and cars.
...
The broadest measure of “stuff” is the gross domestic product, the total value of final goods and services produced in a given period. Constructing the ratio of net worth to GDP illustrates the fluctuation of claims on output per dollar of output produced.
Not surprisingly, this was a fairly steady series for 25 years (maybe longer) from 1970 to the mid-1990s, as gains in nominal wealth were matched with gains in nominal output, averaging about 3.5 dollars in claims on output for every one dollar of GDP. Then came the dot-com boom and Fed bubble-blowing...
Each peak in this relationship was followed by a recession, the last one the worst in modern history. And now the ratio has once again reached 4.7 dollars. History suggests that the ratio will collapse again, probably toward the 3.5 dollar level. This can be accomplished by a massive increase in GDP (unlikely) or a massive decline in the value of assets, net worth (more likely).
...
The adjustment might be accelerated because of widespread short covering and record high margin credit and other leverage.
Logically this seems unavoidable, unless you believe that we are truly wealthier now, even with an economy that is delivering a rather poor performance (historically weak output and sales growth) in real terms. It would seem not to be “whether” we will adjust but when.
The relationship of U.S. net worth to GDP appears to have reached unsustainable heights recently, by historical standards.
American consumers have about $14 trillion in debt and a net worth of over $80 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve. Net worth is the sum of the values of all assets, real and financial, that consumers own, less their debt, including mortgage debt, leases, credit cards and the like.
The wealth we hold is a way of storing purchasing power. You can sell your shares of Apple and buy “stuff”, goods and services. Ultimately, for most consumers, that’s what our wealth is used for, to acquire “stuff”. Some of our assets provide services directly, such as our houses and cars.
...
The broadest measure of “stuff” is the gross domestic product, the total value of final goods and services produced in a given period. Constructing the ratio of net worth to GDP illustrates the fluctuation of claims on output per dollar of output produced.
Not surprisingly, this was a fairly steady series for 25 years (maybe longer) from 1970 to the mid-1990s, as gains in nominal wealth were matched with gains in nominal output, averaging about 3.5 dollars in claims on output for every one dollar of GDP. Then came the dot-com boom and Fed bubble-blowing...
Each peak in this relationship was followed by a recession, the last one the worst in modern history. And now the ratio has once again reached 4.7 dollars. History suggests that the ratio will collapse again, probably toward the 3.5 dollar level. This can be accomplished by a massive increase in GDP (unlikely) or a massive decline in the value of assets, net worth (more likely).
...
The adjustment might be accelerated because of widespread short covering and record high margin credit and other leverage.
Logically this seems unavoidable, unless you believe that we are truly wealthier now, even with an economy that is delivering a rather poor performance (historically weak output and sales growth) in real terms. It would seem not to be “whether” we will adjust but when.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 8:16 pm
Oil Or Stocks - Will The Market Representing The Real Economy Please Stand Up!?!
TD
The first chart is global oil production, by month, based on latest EIA data. 2014 saw significant production increases after fairly flat production in '12 and '13.
source, EIA
And just so we're clear where nearly all the production gains came from...check 2005 and note global production (x-US / Canada) barely rises on the spiking price...but US / Canada production rockets 7mbpd over the period.
source, EIA
A close up of US / Canadian production (below).
source, EIA
The below chart highlights the falling consumption in 2014 (demand) of the 34 OECD advanced economy nations despite larger total populations and trillions in stimulus and new debt.
source, EIA
But advanced economy declining demand is nothing new and some (i.e., Italy, Japan, France) have been showing declining consumption since at least 1980!
So, global production is up and advanced economies demand is in long term decline...the below chart highlights the BRICS oil consumption is still growing...but the rate of BRICS oil consumption growth is inline with periods of global recession?!?
source, EIA
A quick snapshot of global production increases (yoy) vs. BRICS (yoy) consumption increases below. BRICS demand has been the driver for greater global production...'til now?!?
source, EIA
The below chart is the same global production change (yoy) as above but a highlight on China oil consumption change (yoy). China's $21 trillion quadrupling of its credit bubble from '07 til now has been driven by real estate...but in the last year, China's real estate prices have fallen and mortgage driven credit is slowing with the leaking bubble. Could China's economy be looking at an outright contraction in oil consumption in '15?
source, EIA
The above charts clearly disagree with the narrative equity and real estate markets have any linkage with the economies present or future health. The above charts clearly indicate global advanced economy plus developing economy demand is waning akin to levels typically seen in recessionary periods.
The chart below is a reminder real estate but particularly equity markets are currently off in their own world and not supported by growing employment, wages, or savings...employment and slow growing wages seem to agree with oil. Stocks and real estate are simply monuments to perpetually "cheaper" money.
Employee Source, US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Salary/Wage Source, US BEA; Real Estate Source, Federal Reserve System, Z.1 Financial Accounts; Equity Source, Wilshire Associates
Equities are supported by cheap money encouraging massive corporate buybacks and very favorable corporate taxation, as previously explained here. http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/02/f ... taxes.html
In direct opposition to equity markets are decelerating US population and jobs growth, declining full time jobs (replaced with part time jobs), ramping debt and unfunded liabilities growing far faster than economic activity and taxes to pay for all of it.
Total Debt Source, 2013 OASDI and Medicare Trustees’ Reports. (pg. 183); Population Source, OECD; Employee Source, US Bureau of Labor Statistics; HHNW Source, Federal Reserve System, Z.1 Financial Accounts; Salary/Wage Source, Wage, GDP, & Tax Source, US BEA
But who should you believe...record stock market valuations and consensus spouting, highly paid economists who tell you all as is well...or oil, negative economic indicators, and your own eyes that this is just one more artificial boom desperately trying to run from the inevitable bust?
TD
The first chart is global oil production, by month, based on latest EIA data. 2014 saw significant production increases after fairly flat production in '12 and '13.
source, EIA
And just so we're clear where nearly all the production gains came from...check 2005 and note global production (x-US / Canada) barely rises on the spiking price...but US / Canada production rockets 7mbpd over the period.
source, EIA
A close up of US / Canadian production (below).
source, EIA
The below chart highlights the falling consumption in 2014 (demand) of the 34 OECD advanced economy nations despite larger total populations and trillions in stimulus and new debt.
source, EIA
But advanced economy declining demand is nothing new and some (i.e., Italy, Japan, France) have been showing declining consumption since at least 1980!
So, global production is up and advanced economies demand is in long term decline...the below chart highlights the BRICS oil consumption is still growing...but the rate of BRICS oil consumption growth is inline with periods of global recession?!?
source, EIA
A quick snapshot of global production increases (yoy) vs. BRICS (yoy) consumption increases below. BRICS demand has been the driver for greater global production...'til now?!?
source, EIA
The below chart is the same global production change (yoy) as above but a highlight on China oil consumption change (yoy). China's $21 trillion quadrupling of its credit bubble from '07 til now has been driven by real estate...but in the last year, China's real estate prices have fallen and mortgage driven credit is slowing with the leaking bubble. Could China's economy be looking at an outright contraction in oil consumption in '15?
source, EIA
The above charts clearly disagree with the narrative equity and real estate markets have any linkage with the economies present or future health. The above charts clearly indicate global advanced economy plus developing economy demand is waning akin to levels typically seen in recessionary periods.
The chart below is a reminder real estate but particularly equity markets are currently off in their own world and not supported by growing employment, wages, or savings...employment and slow growing wages seem to agree with oil. Stocks and real estate are simply monuments to perpetually "cheaper" money.
Employee Source, US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Salary/Wage Source, US BEA; Real Estate Source, Federal Reserve System, Z.1 Financial Accounts; Equity Source, Wilshire Associates
Equities are supported by cheap money encouraging massive corporate buybacks and very favorable corporate taxation, as previously explained here. http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/02/f ... taxes.html
In direct opposition to equity markets are decelerating US population and jobs growth, declining full time jobs (replaced with part time jobs), ramping debt and unfunded liabilities growing far faster than economic activity and taxes to pay for all of it.
Total Debt Source, 2013 OASDI and Medicare Trustees’ Reports. (pg. 183); Population Source, OECD; Employee Source, US Bureau of Labor Statistics; HHNW Source, Federal Reserve System, Z.1 Financial Accounts; Salary/Wage Source, Wage, GDP, & Tax Source, US BEA
But who should you believe...record stock market valuations and consensus spouting, highly paid economists who tell you all as is well...or oil, negative economic indicators, and your own eyes that this is just one more artificial boom desperately trying to run from the inevitable bust?
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 8:18 pm
The Global War On Pensioners
TD
Pensioners are under attack. As we reported yesterday, ECB front running has driven yields down and with them the discount rate that companies use to determine the present value of their liabilities. This has had the rather unfortunate effect of increasing EU pension deficits by nearly a fifth in the space of just 12 months, prompting employers to consider measures such as upping the retirement age in order to mitigate the pain.
In an even more disconcerting turn of events, we learned this week that in order to pay a €1.5 billion IOU to the IMF, Greece is borrowing from the public sector via 15-day repo. While Greece’s biggest pension fund IKA has assured everyone that this is actually standard practice and noted that characterizing the transactions as anything other than the ordinary course of business was akin to fear-mongering, following the money trail here leads us to the following rather disturbing conclusion:
Should [the plundering on the public purse prove to be anything other than temporary, the local population will promptly exhibit very angry tendencies once it is revealed that the "radical left" government plundered Greek pensions to pay the IMF which could then immediately turn around and use the fund to pay the Kiev government, which in turn could pay Putin to keep the gas running. Where Greece will find an additional source of funds to replace this Pension "repo" was not quite clear as of this writing.
Against that backdrop, we turn to Illinois where Mike Shedlock (via UnionWatch) reminds us pension plans on the whole are some 61% underfunded. Recall from a piece we posted last November that Illinois’ problem is in fact so large that “it would take three years of a complete government shutdown, during which the entire general fund went toward pensions, just to break even. No funding for schools, no money for public safety and nothing for health care and human services.”
And that’s the good (err better) news. The bad news is that in one particularly egregious case — that of the Illinois General Assembly Retirement System (GARS) — the shortfall is more like 84%.
Here’s more:
The above chart shows “smoothed returns” that even out the 2007-2009 dip as well as the 2010-2014 blast higher. Illinois resorted to using “smoothed returns” to minimize the effect of the 2007-2009 dip. But now, with the rally, Illinois wants to use actual market returns.
On a non-smoothed (market) basis the numbers are slightly better. Non-smoothed, the total deficit is $105 billion instead of $111 billion.
Let’s be generous and assume the lower $105 billion number. The US Census Bureau shows there are 4,772,723 Illinois households.
The potential taxpayer burden to make up the deficit is $22,000 per household.
Shedlock goes on to note that despite the exceedingly obvious trend towards permanently lower yields, pension plans simply haven’t adjusted their investment rate assumptions to conform with the new (para)normal:
In the US, pension funds have not made 1.25% promises or even 4% promises, but rather 7.0%+ promises with the 10-year bond yielding about 2%.
Annuities promise 6% or so. Illinois promises range from 7.0% to 7.5%. How you get 7.5% in a 2% world?
The correct answer is: you don’t.
The result is the same relentless hunt for yield that’s driven stocks and other risk assets to nosebleed valuations (or, in the Fed’s words, mission accomplished). And it means that increasingly, pension funds are taking on more risk to meet their contributions.
Here’s WSJ:
Public-plan managers may see little option other than to double down on risk. In 2013 nearly half of state and local plan sponsors failed to make their full pension contribution. Moving from the 7.5% return currently assumed by Calpers to the roughly 5% yield on a 38%-62% stock-bond portfolio would increase annual contributions by around 50%—an additional $4 billion—making funding even more challenging.
...and from the NY Times:
...as interest rates began their long fall, pension funds faced a dilemma. Staying heavily invested in bonds would force governments either to set aside more cash upfront or to cut pension promises. So instead, pension funds radically changed their investment strategies, embracing investments that produce higher returns but also involve more risk. This shift has replaced an explicit cost with a hidden one: that lawmakers will have to divert more tax dollars into pension funds, cut back on benefits or both when stock market crashes cause pension fund asset values to decline.
The particularly unnerving part of the story is that this has been going on for years. Consider the following from an academic study penned by researchers from Notre Dame and Maastricht University:
In the past two decades, U.S. public pension funds uniquely increased allocations to risky investments, especially as more members retired. We explain this increase by the incentives from their distinct regulation linking the liability discount rate to the expected return on assets rather than to the riskiness of their promised pension benefits. Their increased risk-taking allows them to maintain high discount rates, even as interest rates decline, underreport the underfunding and is associated with an annual underperformance of 60 basis points.
While risk-taking may be on the rise, it’s not translating into tangible results. A 2014 report from a panel commissioned by the Society of Actuaries shows funded ratios falling…
… the percentage of funds that are underfunded rising…
...and investments in “alternatives” and equities increasing while the portion of funds devoted to fixed income has continually declined..
In the end, they’ll be fewer pensionable salaries in Europe as corporations cut back, Greeks will just have to hope their government finds a way to pay back the cash being plundered from public coffers, and in the US, taxpayers will ultimately be on the hook for unfunded liabilities.
TD
Pensioners are under attack. As we reported yesterday, ECB front running has driven yields down and with them the discount rate that companies use to determine the present value of their liabilities. This has had the rather unfortunate effect of increasing EU pension deficits by nearly a fifth in the space of just 12 months, prompting employers to consider measures such as upping the retirement age in order to mitigate the pain.
In an even more disconcerting turn of events, we learned this week that in order to pay a €1.5 billion IOU to the IMF, Greece is borrowing from the public sector via 15-day repo. While Greece’s biggest pension fund IKA has assured everyone that this is actually standard practice and noted that characterizing the transactions as anything other than the ordinary course of business was akin to fear-mongering, following the money trail here leads us to the following rather disturbing conclusion:
Should [the plundering on the public purse prove to be anything other than temporary, the local population will promptly exhibit very angry tendencies once it is revealed that the "radical left" government plundered Greek pensions to pay the IMF which could then immediately turn around and use the fund to pay the Kiev government, which in turn could pay Putin to keep the gas running. Where Greece will find an additional source of funds to replace this Pension "repo" was not quite clear as of this writing.
Against that backdrop, we turn to Illinois where Mike Shedlock (via UnionWatch) reminds us pension plans on the whole are some 61% underfunded. Recall from a piece we posted last November that Illinois’ problem is in fact so large that “it would take three years of a complete government shutdown, during which the entire general fund went toward pensions, just to break even. No funding for schools, no money for public safety and nothing for health care and human services.”
And that’s the good (err better) news. The bad news is that in one particularly egregious case — that of the Illinois General Assembly Retirement System (GARS) — the shortfall is more like 84%.
Here’s more:
The above chart shows “smoothed returns” that even out the 2007-2009 dip as well as the 2010-2014 blast higher. Illinois resorted to using “smoothed returns” to minimize the effect of the 2007-2009 dip. But now, with the rally, Illinois wants to use actual market returns.
On a non-smoothed (market) basis the numbers are slightly better. Non-smoothed, the total deficit is $105 billion instead of $111 billion.
Let’s be generous and assume the lower $105 billion number. The US Census Bureau shows there are 4,772,723 Illinois households.
The potential taxpayer burden to make up the deficit is $22,000 per household.
Shedlock goes on to note that despite the exceedingly obvious trend towards permanently lower yields, pension plans simply haven’t adjusted their investment rate assumptions to conform with the new (para)normal:
In the US, pension funds have not made 1.25% promises or even 4% promises, but rather 7.0%+ promises with the 10-year bond yielding about 2%.
Annuities promise 6% or so. Illinois promises range from 7.0% to 7.5%. How you get 7.5% in a 2% world?
The correct answer is: you don’t.
The result is the same relentless hunt for yield that’s driven stocks and other risk assets to nosebleed valuations (or, in the Fed’s words, mission accomplished). And it means that increasingly, pension funds are taking on more risk to meet their contributions.
Here’s WSJ:
Public-plan managers may see little option other than to double down on risk. In 2013 nearly half of state and local plan sponsors failed to make their full pension contribution. Moving from the 7.5% return currently assumed by Calpers to the roughly 5% yield on a 38%-62% stock-bond portfolio would increase annual contributions by around 50%—an additional $4 billion—making funding even more challenging.
...and from the NY Times:
...as interest rates began their long fall, pension funds faced a dilemma. Staying heavily invested in bonds would force governments either to set aside more cash upfront or to cut pension promises. So instead, pension funds radically changed their investment strategies, embracing investments that produce higher returns but also involve more risk. This shift has replaced an explicit cost with a hidden one: that lawmakers will have to divert more tax dollars into pension funds, cut back on benefits or both when stock market crashes cause pension fund asset values to decline.
The particularly unnerving part of the story is that this has been going on for years. Consider the following from an academic study penned by researchers from Notre Dame and Maastricht University:
In the past two decades, U.S. public pension funds uniquely increased allocations to risky investments, especially as more members retired. We explain this increase by the incentives from their distinct regulation linking the liability discount rate to the expected return on assets rather than to the riskiness of their promised pension benefits. Their increased risk-taking allows them to maintain high discount rates, even as interest rates decline, underreport the underfunding and is associated with an annual underperformance of 60 basis points.
While risk-taking may be on the rise, it’s not translating into tangible results. A 2014 report from a panel commissioned by the Society of Actuaries shows funded ratios falling…
… the percentage of funds that are underfunded rising…
...and investments in “alternatives” and equities increasing while the portion of funds devoted to fixed income has continually declined..
In the end, they’ll be fewer pensionable salaries in Europe as corporations cut back, Greeks will just have to hope their government finds a way to pay back the cash being plundered from public coffers, and in the US, taxpayers will ultimately be on the hook for unfunded liabilities.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por Fenix » Vie Mar 06, 2015 8:23 pm
Who's Isolated Now? Kazakhstan Authorities Announce Plans To De-Dollarize Economy
TD
Following the approval of the government, Kazakhstan's Central Bank has announced it plans to de-dollarize its economy by the end of 2016. The goal is to avoid the macroeconomic instability that the USD creates and to give priority to Tenge in trade agreements (banning price designations in foreign exchange). Coming just 2 weeks after the ratification of the $100 billion BRICS bank, and Russia's creation of a SWIFT-alternative, one wonders - as one by one foreign nations agree non-dollar trade and swap agreements - who is becoming 'isolated' now?
_______________
guerra fria again ?
Mark Cuban Warns: This Bubble Is Far Worse Than The Tech Bubble Of 2000
Just over a year ago, we warned that while the world of speculative capital is focused intently on the Twitter and Facebook #Ref/0 fundamental valuations in the publicly-traded equity markets, the real dot-com 2.0 bubble is occurring in the private markets. Few paid attention, prefering the head in the sand "well the music is still playing" meme; but one (or two) billionaires noticed, and with all eyes intently focused on Nasdaq 5,000 (as some indicator that we made it back to Nirvana), Mark Cuban unleashes uncontestible exposition why is this bubble far worse than the tech bubble of 2000.
It is different this time... and, as Mark Cuban explains, far worse...
Ah the good old days. Stocks up $25, $50, $100 more in a single day. Day trading was all the rage. Anyone and everyone you talked to had a story about how they had made a ton of money on such and such a stock. In an hour. Stock trading millionaires were being minted by the week, if not sooner.
You couldn’t go anywhere without people talking about the stock market. Everyone was in or new someone who was in. There were hundreds of companies that were coming public and could easily be bought and sold. You just pick a stock and buy it. Then you pray it goes up. Which most days it did.
Then it ended. Slowly by surely the air came out of the bubble and the stock markets declined and declined till the air was completely gone. The good news was that some people were able to see it coming and get out. The bad is that others were able to get out, but at significant losses.
If we thought it was stupid to invest in public internet websites that had no chance of succeeding back then, it’s worse today.
In a bubble there is always someone with a “great” idea pitching an investor the dream of a billion dollar payout with a comparison to an existing success story. In the tech bubble it was Broadcast.com, AOL, Netscape, etc. Today its, Uber, Twitter, Facebook, etc.
To the investor, its the hope of a huge payout. But there is one critical difference. Back then the companies the general public was investing in were public companies. They may have been horrible companies, but being public meant that investors had liquidity to sell their stocks.
The bubble today comes from private investors who are investing in apps and small tech companies.
Just like back then there were always people telling you their idea for a new website or about the public website they invested in, today people always have what essentially boils down to an app that they want you to invest in. But unlike back then when the dream of riches was from a public company, now its from a private company. And there in lies the rub.
People we used to call individual or small investors, are now called Angels. Angels. Why do they call them Angels ? Maybe because they grant wishes ?
According to some data I found, there are 225k Angels in the US. Like the crazy days of the internet boom, I wonder how many realize what they have gotten into ?
But they are not alone.
For those who can’t figure out how to be Angels. You can sign up to be part of the new excitement called Equity Crowd Funding. Equity Crowd Funding allows you to join the masses to chase investments with as little as 5k dollars. Oh the possibilities !!
I have absolutely not doubt in my mind that most of these individual Angels and crowd funders are currently under water in their investments. Absolutely none. I say most. The percentage could be higher
Why ?
Because there is ZERO liquidity for any of those investments. None. Zero. Zip.
All those Angel investments in all those apps and startups. All that crowdfunded equity. All in search of their unicorn because the only real salvation right now is an exit or cash pay out from operations. The SEC made sure that there is no market for any of these companies to go public and create liquidity for their Angels. The market for sub 25mm dollar raises is effectively dead. DOA . Gone. Thanks SEC. And with the new Equity CrowdFunding rules yet to be finalized, there is no reason to believe that the SEC will be smart enough to create some form of liquidity for all those widows and orphans who will put their $5k into the dream only to realize they can’t get any cash back when they need money to fix their car
So why is this bubble far worse than the tech bubble of 2000 ?
Because the only thing worse than a market with collapsing valuations is a market with no valuations and no liquidity.
If stock in a company is worth what somebody will pay for it, what is the stock of a company worth when there is no place to sell it ?
* * *
Of course, tomorrow's mainstream business media channels will trot out various asset-gatherers and commssion-takers who will denigrate Mr. Cuban's clarifications - just as they did Janet Yellen's Biotech warnings last year - but the question is: who do you believe? The billionaire with no ax to grind or the market maven "TV personality" with vested interests up the wazoo?
If examples are needed, see below...
Click image for interactive and sortable WSJ infographic
Source: WSJ
TD
Following the approval of the government, Kazakhstan's Central Bank has announced it plans to de-dollarize its economy by the end of 2016. The goal is to avoid the macroeconomic instability that the USD creates and to give priority to Tenge in trade agreements (banning price designations in foreign exchange). Coming just 2 weeks after the ratification of the $100 billion BRICS bank, and Russia's creation of a SWIFT-alternative, one wonders - as one by one foreign nations agree non-dollar trade and swap agreements - who is becoming 'isolated' now?
_______________
guerra fria again ?
Mark Cuban Warns: This Bubble Is Far Worse Than The Tech Bubble Of 2000
Just over a year ago, we warned that while the world of speculative capital is focused intently on the Twitter and Facebook #Ref/0 fundamental valuations in the publicly-traded equity markets, the real dot-com 2.0 bubble is occurring in the private markets. Few paid attention, prefering the head in the sand "well the music is still playing" meme; but one (or two) billionaires noticed, and with all eyes intently focused on Nasdaq 5,000 (as some indicator that we made it back to Nirvana), Mark Cuban unleashes uncontestible exposition why is this bubble far worse than the tech bubble of 2000.
It is different this time... and, as Mark Cuban explains, far worse...
Ah the good old days. Stocks up $25, $50, $100 more in a single day. Day trading was all the rage. Anyone and everyone you talked to had a story about how they had made a ton of money on such and such a stock. In an hour. Stock trading millionaires were being minted by the week, if not sooner.
You couldn’t go anywhere without people talking about the stock market. Everyone was in or new someone who was in. There were hundreds of companies that were coming public and could easily be bought and sold. You just pick a stock and buy it. Then you pray it goes up. Which most days it did.
Then it ended. Slowly by surely the air came out of the bubble and the stock markets declined and declined till the air was completely gone. The good news was that some people were able to see it coming and get out. The bad is that others were able to get out, but at significant losses.
If we thought it was stupid to invest in public internet websites that had no chance of succeeding back then, it’s worse today.
In a bubble there is always someone with a “great” idea pitching an investor the dream of a billion dollar payout with a comparison to an existing success story. In the tech bubble it was Broadcast.com, AOL, Netscape, etc. Today its, Uber, Twitter, Facebook, etc.
To the investor, its the hope of a huge payout. But there is one critical difference. Back then the companies the general public was investing in were public companies. They may have been horrible companies, but being public meant that investors had liquidity to sell their stocks.
The bubble today comes from private investors who are investing in apps and small tech companies.
Just like back then there were always people telling you their idea for a new website or about the public website they invested in, today people always have what essentially boils down to an app that they want you to invest in. But unlike back then when the dream of riches was from a public company, now its from a private company. And there in lies the rub.
People we used to call individual or small investors, are now called Angels. Angels. Why do they call them Angels ? Maybe because they grant wishes ?
According to some data I found, there are 225k Angels in the US. Like the crazy days of the internet boom, I wonder how many realize what they have gotten into ?
But they are not alone.
For those who can’t figure out how to be Angels. You can sign up to be part of the new excitement called Equity Crowd Funding. Equity Crowd Funding allows you to join the masses to chase investments with as little as 5k dollars. Oh the possibilities !!
I have absolutely not doubt in my mind that most of these individual Angels and crowd funders are currently under water in their investments. Absolutely none. I say most. The percentage could be higher
Why ?
Because there is ZERO liquidity for any of those investments. None. Zero. Zip.
All those Angel investments in all those apps and startups. All that crowdfunded equity. All in search of their unicorn because the only real salvation right now is an exit or cash pay out from operations. The SEC made sure that there is no market for any of these companies to go public and create liquidity for their Angels. The market for sub 25mm dollar raises is effectively dead. DOA . Gone. Thanks SEC. And with the new Equity CrowdFunding rules yet to be finalized, there is no reason to believe that the SEC will be smart enough to create some form of liquidity for all those widows and orphans who will put their $5k into the dream only to realize they can’t get any cash back when they need money to fix their car
So why is this bubble far worse than the tech bubble of 2000 ?
Because the only thing worse than a market with collapsing valuations is a market with no valuations and no liquidity.
If stock in a company is worth what somebody will pay for it, what is the stock of a company worth when there is no place to sell it ?
* * *
Of course, tomorrow's mainstream business media channels will trot out various asset-gatherers and commssion-takers who will denigrate Mr. Cuban's clarifications - just as they did Janet Yellen's Biotech warnings last year - but the question is: who do you believe? The billionaire with no ax to grind or the market maven "TV personality" with vested interests up the wazoo?
If examples are needed, see below...
Click image for interactive and sortable WSJ infographic
Source: WSJ
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por admin » Sab Mar 07, 2015 8:03 am
Perú prevé aumento de al menos 30 pct en captura de anchoveta este año
LIMA (Reuters) - La captura de anchoveta, usada para la fabricación de harina de pescado de la que Perú es líder mundial, aumentaría al menos en un 30 por ciento en el 2015 mientras se espera el inicio de las primeras faenas del año a fines de marzo, dijo el viernes el Gobierno.
La presencia de esta especie que vive en aguas frías parece haberse recuperado tras un moderado fenómeno climático de El Niño, que calienta el Pacífico, lo que permite al Gobierno aliviar las restricciones de pesca para la industria de la harina de pescado, dijo el viceministro de Pesca, Juan Requejo.
"El calentamiento de las aguas y el trastorno de la pesca de anchoveta ya es un tema del pasado, al menos por ahora", dijo Requejo en una entrevista con Reuters.
El funcionario estimó en tal sentido un aumento de al menos 30 por ciento de las capturas frente a las del año pasado. Y la proyección es "muy conservadora", agregó el viceministro.
La captura de anchoveta en Perú se redujo a 2,2 millones de toneladas el año pasado -alrededor de un tercio del volumen en un año típico- después de que las embarcaciones sólo capturaron el 68 por ciento de su cuota en la primera temporada del 2014.
El Gobierno optó por no abrir una segunda temporada de pesca el año pasado para velar la biomasa juvenil de anchoveta.
Ahora, la primera temporada de pesca de anchoveta del año tras casi 10 meses de veda está programada para ejecutarse entre el 26 de marzo hasta el 30 de junio en la costa sur del Perú.
Requejo dijo que se fijará una cuota de pesca para la primera temporada después de que una pesca probatoria determine el estado de la biomasa actual entre el 12 y 16 marzo.
Si la prueba determina la existencia de demasiadas anchovetas juveniles, la temporada de pesca podría ser postergada por un par de semanas, agregó.
Perú produce cerca del 30 por ciento de la oferta mundial de harina de pescado por la abundante existencia de anchovetas en el Pacífico, por donde cruza la fría corriente de agua Humbolt y que permite el desarrollo del alimento marino plancton.
La temporada principal de capturas, a lo largo de la costa central y norte del país, probablemente se iniciaría en abril o en mayo y tendría cuotas altas de pesca, dijo Requejo.
"Si las condiciones se mantienen estamos hablando de una cifra superior a 2 millones de toneladas o 2,5 millones de toneladas (de cuota pesquera para el centro y norte del país)", afirmó el viceministro.
"Se va a poder pescar bastante", afirmó Requejo.
La anchoveta, rica en proteínas, es molida para hacer harina de pescado que se exporta principalmente a Europa y Asia donde se utiliza como alimento para animales.
Un rebote de la industria pesquera podría ayudar a impulsar la economía local, que registró en el 2014 su menor crecimiento en cinco años por la caída de sus vitales exportaciones mineras.
LIMA (Reuters) - La captura de anchoveta, usada para la fabricación de harina de pescado de la que Perú es líder mundial, aumentaría al menos en un 30 por ciento en el 2015 mientras se espera el inicio de las primeras faenas del año a fines de marzo, dijo el viernes el Gobierno.
La presencia de esta especie que vive en aguas frías parece haberse recuperado tras un moderado fenómeno climático de El Niño, que calienta el Pacífico, lo que permite al Gobierno aliviar las restricciones de pesca para la industria de la harina de pescado, dijo el viceministro de Pesca, Juan Requejo.
"El calentamiento de las aguas y el trastorno de la pesca de anchoveta ya es un tema del pasado, al menos por ahora", dijo Requejo en una entrevista con Reuters.
El funcionario estimó en tal sentido un aumento de al menos 30 por ciento de las capturas frente a las del año pasado. Y la proyección es "muy conservadora", agregó el viceministro.
La captura de anchoveta en Perú se redujo a 2,2 millones de toneladas el año pasado -alrededor de un tercio del volumen en un año típico- después de que las embarcaciones sólo capturaron el 68 por ciento de su cuota en la primera temporada del 2014.
El Gobierno optó por no abrir una segunda temporada de pesca el año pasado para velar la biomasa juvenil de anchoveta.
Ahora, la primera temporada de pesca de anchoveta del año tras casi 10 meses de veda está programada para ejecutarse entre el 26 de marzo hasta el 30 de junio en la costa sur del Perú.
Requejo dijo que se fijará una cuota de pesca para la primera temporada después de que una pesca probatoria determine el estado de la biomasa actual entre el 12 y 16 marzo.
Si la prueba determina la existencia de demasiadas anchovetas juveniles, la temporada de pesca podría ser postergada por un par de semanas, agregó.
Perú produce cerca del 30 por ciento de la oferta mundial de harina de pescado por la abundante existencia de anchovetas en el Pacífico, por donde cruza la fría corriente de agua Humbolt y que permite el desarrollo del alimento marino plancton.
La temporada principal de capturas, a lo largo de la costa central y norte del país, probablemente se iniciaría en abril o en mayo y tendría cuotas altas de pesca, dijo Requejo.
"Si las condiciones se mantienen estamos hablando de una cifra superior a 2 millones de toneladas o 2,5 millones de toneladas (de cuota pesquera para el centro y norte del país)", afirmó el viceministro.
"Se va a poder pescar bastante", afirmó Requejo.
La anchoveta, rica en proteínas, es molida para hacer harina de pescado que se exporta principalmente a Europa y Asia donde se utiliza como alimento para animales.
Un rebote de la industria pesquera podría ayudar a impulsar la economía local, que registró en el 2014 su menor crecimiento en cinco años por la caída de sus vitales exportaciones mineras.
- admin
- Site Admin
- Mensajes: 164292
- Registrado: Mié Abr 21, 2010 9:02 pm
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por admin » Sab Mar 07, 2015 8:35 am
Producción local de oro, plata y zinc aumentaron en enero
Viernes, 06 de marzo del 2015. 18:19 En tanto, la producción de cobre se mantuvo estable en el primer mes del año, informó el Ministerio de Energía y Minas
(Foto: Minem)
(Foto: Minem)
La producción local de oro, plata y zinc creció enero, mientras que el suministro de cobre se mantuvo estable, informó hoy el Ministerio de Energía y Minas (Minem).
La producción de oro sumó en enero unas 368 mil 885 onzas finas, un 1,92% más que en el mismo mes del año pasado, debido principalmente a la recuperación en la producción de Yanacocha, mina de la estadounidense Newmont y la peruana Buenaventura.
Sigue a Portafolio también en Facebook
En tanto, la producción peruana de cobre, la tercera mayor del mundo, fue estable en enero frente al mismo mes del año pasado, con un volumen de 111 mil 893 toneladas métricas, preció el Minem.
La producción de plata aumentó en enero un 12,02% a 9'895.535 onzas finas, frente a enero del año pasado, debido al incremento de un 24,5% de la extracción de Buenaventura, la mayor productora de metales preciosos del país.
La producción de zinc aumentó un 12,6% en enero a 113 mil 439 toneladas; debido a un mayor aporte de la minera Antamina, dijo el Minem.
La actividad minera es vital para la economía peruana, porque sus ventas representan aproximadamente el 60% de los ingresos del país por exportaciones.
Viernes, 06 de marzo del 2015. 18:19 En tanto, la producción de cobre se mantuvo estable en el primer mes del año, informó el Ministerio de Energía y Minas
(Foto: Minem)
(Foto: Minem)
La producción local de oro, plata y zinc creció enero, mientras que el suministro de cobre se mantuvo estable, informó hoy el Ministerio de Energía y Minas (Minem).
La producción de oro sumó en enero unas 368 mil 885 onzas finas, un 1,92% más que en el mismo mes del año pasado, debido principalmente a la recuperación en la producción de Yanacocha, mina de la estadounidense Newmont y la peruana Buenaventura.
Sigue a Portafolio también en Facebook
En tanto, la producción peruana de cobre, la tercera mayor del mundo, fue estable en enero frente al mismo mes del año pasado, con un volumen de 111 mil 893 toneladas métricas, preció el Minem.
La producción de plata aumentó en enero un 12,02% a 9'895.535 onzas finas, frente a enero del año pasado, debido al incremento de un 24,5% de la extracción de Buenaventura, la mayor productora de metales preciosos del país.
La producción de zinc aumentó un 12,6% en enero a 113 mil 439 toneladas; debido a un mayor aporte de la minera Antamina, dijo el Minem.
La actividad minera es vital para la economía peruana, porque sus ventas representan aproximadamente el 60% de los ingresos del país por exportaciones.
- admin
- Site Admin
- Mensajes: 164292
- Registrado: Mié Abr 21, 2010 9:02 pm
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por admin » Sab Mar 07, 2015 10:17 pm
Perú registra déficit comercial en enero por menores ventas de materias primas
LIMA (Reuters) - Perú, país exportador de minerales, registró en enero un déficit comercial de 317 millones de dólares y volvió a los saldos en rojo que había anotado la mayoría de meses el año pasado por los menores precios de las materias primas, dijo el Banco Central.
El país andino cortó en diciembre una racha de nueve meses de resultados negativos, pero anotó en el 2014 el mayor déficit comercial de su historia, según datos del Banco Central, debido a la caída de las cotizaciones internacionales de los metales.
La exportación de metales es clave para Perú, dado que representa el 60 por ciento de sus ventas totales.
El primer saldo en rojo del 2015 es menor al déficit comercial de 450 millones de dólares de enero del año pasado, pero difiere del superávit de 208 millones de dólares anotado en diciembre, mostró el sábado un comunicado del Banco Central.
En enero de este año, las exportaciones sumaron 2.845 millones de dólares, menor a los 3.167 millones de dólares de ventas en el mismo mes del año pasado, precisó el ente emisor.
Mientras tanto, las importaciones fueron de 3.163 millones de dólares en enero, por debajo de los 3.616 millones de dólares registrados en el mismo mes del 2014, dijo el banco.
El Banco Central revisó a fines de enero su estimación de balanza comercial para este año a un déficit de 2.800 millones de dólares, en medio de los deprimidos precios de los metales.
Perú es el tercer productor mundial de cobre, de plata y de zinc y el sexto de oro.
Según el banco, el precio del cobre -que representa el 23 por ciento de los envíos del país- caería un 13,5 por ciento este año, tras haber bajado un 6,4 por ciento en el 2014.
La economía peruana se desaceleró en el 2014 a su menor ritmo de cinco años debido principalmente a la caída de sus exportaciones mineras y una ralentización de las inversiones.
LIMA (Reuters) - Perú, país exportador de minerales, registró en enero un déficit comercial de 317 millones de dólares y volvió a los saldos en rojo que había anotado la mayoría de meses el año pasado por los menores precios de las materias primas, dijo el Banco Central.
El país andino cortó en diciembre una racha de nueve meses de resultados negativos, pero anotó en el 2014 el mayor déficit comercial de su historia, según datos del Banco Central, debido a la caída de las cotizaciones internacionales de los metales.
La exportación de metales es clave para Perú, dado que representa el 60 por ciento de sus ventas totales.
El primer saldo en rojo del 2015 es menor al déficit comercial de 450 millones de dólares de enero del año pasado, pero difiere del superávit de 208 millones de dólares anotado en diciembre, mostró el sábado un comunicado del Banco Central.
En enero de este año, las exportaciones sumaron 2.845 millones de dólares, menor a los 3.167 millones de dólares de ventas en el mismo mes del año pasado, precisó el ente emisor.
Mientras tanto, las importaciones fueron de 3.163 millones de dólares en enero, por debajo de los 3.616 millones de dólares registrados en el mismo mes del 2014, dijo el banco.
El Banco Central revisó a fines de enero su estimación de balanza comercial para este año a un déficit de 2.800 millones de dólares, en medio de los deprimidos precios de los metales.
Perú es el tercer productor mundial de cobre, de plata y de zinc y el sexto de oro.
Según el banco, el precio del cobre -que representa el 23 por ciento de los envíos del país- caería un 13,5 por ciento este año, tras haber bajado un 6,4 por ciento en el 2014.
La economía peruana se desaceleró en el 2014 a su menor ritmo de cinco años debido principalmente a la caída de sus exportaciones mineras y una ralentización de las inversiones.
- admin
- Site Admin
- Mensajes: 164292
- Registrado: Mié Abr 21, 2010 9:02 pm
Re: Viernes 06/03/15 la situación del empleo
por admin » Dom Mar 08, 2015 1:56 am
Las exportaciones de China suben 48.3%, mucho mejor de lo esperado.
- admin
- Site Admin
- Mensajes: 164292
- Registrado: Mié Abr 21, 2010 9:02 pm
¿Quién está conectado?
Usuarios navegando por este Foro: No hay usuarios registrados visitando el Foro y 91 invitados