Lunes 09/0/15 Habla Mester y Fisher

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El mundo se queda sin espacio para guardar crudo
Cerca de su límite, el almacenamiento presiona los precios

Por Nicole Friedman
lunes, 9 de marzo de 2015 19:35 EDT
En momentos en que el petróleo abunda en el mundo, los productores y operadores enfrentan un dilema de miles de millones de barriles: dónde almacenarlo.

El inventario de crudo en Estados Unidos está en su mayor nivel en más de 80 años, según datos de la Administración de Información de Energía de ese país (EIA, por su siglas en ingles), equivalente a casi 70% de la capacidad de almacenamiento estadounidense. Se prevé que un centro de almacenamiento en el estado de Oklahoma alcance su capacidad máxima antes de mitad de año. Aunque los cálculos son aproximados, Citigroup Inc. C -0.21% cree que el almacenamiento de crudo comercial en Europa podría estar por encima de 90% de su capacidad, y los inventarios en Corea del Sur, Sudáfrica y Japón podrían ubicarse en más de 80% de su capacidad.

El peligro de quedarse sin espacio para guardar el crudo es que los precios, que ya han caído 50% desde junio, sigan en baja, predicen algunos analistas. Esto sucedería a medida que los productores venden petróleo con descuento a los pocos compradores que quedan con espacio para acumularlo. Sin embargo, los consumidores seguirían beneficiándose conforme las refinerías convierten un océano de crudo en gasolina y otros combustibles.

“Los niveles de inventario han comenzado a dar miedo”, dice Harish Sundaresh, gestor de portafolio y estratega sénior de commodities de Loomis, Sayles y Co., que administra cerca de US$230.000 millones. “Cuando veo el espacio de almacenamiento, no me parece que tengamos suficiente”.

No obstante, la ayuda podría llegar pronto. En todo EE.UU. se están construyendo tanques de almacenamiento, al tiempo que se están alquilando algunos buques cisterna de gran tamaño para guardar el petróleo.

Cuando la oferta y la demanda de petróleo están en cierta forma equilibradas, tanques de almacenamiento y cavernas de sal subterráneas sirven como lugares para depositar el crudo durante unos días mientras los operadores encuentran un comprador.

De todos modos, los productores están bombeando casi 1,5 millones de barriles diarios más de lo que necesita el mundo, debido a una combinación de una menor demanda y una mayor producción en EE.UU. Eso significa que el petróleo que se guarda hoy podría permanecer allí durante años, señalan analistas. Si el exceso empeora, más productores podrían verse obligados a cerrar sus pozos y, de hecho, dejar almacenado el petróleo en la tierra.


Tanques para almacenar petróleo recién construidos en Cushing, Oklahoma. A pesar del auge en la construcción de tanques desde 2009, las instalaciones de Estados Unidos se están quedando sin espacio para más crudo. Associated Press
Sundaresh y su equipo, quienes supervisan US$5.000 millones, han apostado a que los precios del petróleo caerán debido a la escasez de espacio de almacenamiento.

El espacio para guardar crudo se está convirtiendo en un commodity con el que se puede operar en el mercado. CME Group Inc., CME +1.21% propietario de la Bolsa Mercantil de Nueva York (Nymex), planea lanzar el 29 de marzo el primer contrato a futuro de almacenamiento de petróleo. El contrato permitirá a corredores y productores comprar y vender el derecho de almacenar ciertos tipos de petróleo en Lafourche Parish, estado de Luisiana, durante un mes específico.

Desde 2009, la última vez que los inventarios estuvieron altos, un auge de construcción de tanques ha añadido decenas de millones de barriles de capacidad de almacenamiento. De todos modos, se están llenando con rapidez.

En las afueras de la ciudad de Cushing, en Oklahoma, Mark Hurley es el guardián de organizadas filas de tanques de depósito de crudo. Los contenedores, que en conjunto pueden guardar 6,6 millones de barriles de petróleo —suficiente para llenar más de 400 piscinas olímpicas— están alquilados hasta fin de año.

“Recibimos muchas llamadas estos días para ver si tenemos almacenamiento disponible”, cuenta Hurley, presidente ejecutivo de Blueknight Energy Partners BKEP -1.36% LP, una unidad de Vitol Holding BV y Charlesbank Capital Partners. La respuesta de Hurley es corta: no.

Fairway Energy Partners LLC planea usar cinco cavernas de sal subterráneas para almacenar casi 19 millones de barriles de crudo para fines de 2016. Esas cavernas son aptas para guardar crudo o gas natural porque sus paredes son impermeables.

La mayor parte del petróleo procesado en Houston solía importarse en buques que podían ser devueltos si el inventario crecía demasiado. Hoy, en cambio, las refinerías de Houston reciben gran parte de su petróleo de productores en Texas, Dakota del Norte y Canadá. Como la mayor parte del crudo estadounidense no se puede exportar por ley, los productores internos tienen menos mercados para vender su petróleo.

Muchos corredores consideran a Cushing como el epicentro del exceso global de crudo. La ciudad está en el punto de encuentro de oleoductos que conectan pozos petroleros en Canadá y el oeste de Texas con refinerías en la Costa del Golfo de EE.UU., además de ser el mayor centro de almacenamiento comercial estadounidense por capacidad. También es un lugar popular para guardar petróleo porque es el punto de entrega de los barriles que respaldan los futuros que cotizan en la Nymex. Debido a una peculiaridad en el mercado —los precios de futuros para meses posteriores son más altos que para el contrato del mes más próximo—, los corredores que almacenan crudo en Cushing pueden cerrar un acuerdo para vender ese petróleo a un precio más alto.

“Es dinero gratis”, dice Brian Busch, director de mercados petroleros en Genscape Inc., una proveedora de datos que hace seguimiento de los niveles de almacenamiento en Cushing. “No hay absolutamente nada que pueda evitar” que las instalaciones de Cushing se llenen por completo.

El inventario almacenado en Cushing aumentó a 49,2 millones de barriles en la semana que terminó el 27 de febrero, según la EIA. Los niveles subieron en 7,8 millones de barriles en cuatro semanas; a ese ritmo, la capacidad que se puede usar en la zona llegaría a su máximo en mayo.

Cuando eso suceda, la mayor parte del almacenamiento que quedará disponible en el mundo se ubicaría en tanques en la Costa del Golfo de EE.UU. o en buques cisterna. Entre los países industrializados, los inventarios de crudo comercial y productos petroleros podrían alcanzar un máximo histórico de 2.830 millones de barriles para mediados de año, advirtió el mes pasado la Agencia Internacional de Energía. La última vez que estuvieron en ese nivel, en agosto de 1998, los precios del crudo promediaban US$13,38 por barril, equivalente a US$19,18 por barril actualmente.

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[Fenix]

Alan Greenspan Warns Of Explosive Inflation: "Tinderbox Looking For A Spark"
Tyler D.
03/09/2015 11:06

Last month it was revealed that former federal reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, the architect of U.S. monetary policy under four Presidents, is anticipating a significant market event as a result of the trillions of dollars that have been pumped into the system over the last several years. According to Greenspan, something big is coming.

His comments were shared by well known resource analyst Brien Lundin, who joined Greenspan for private discussions at last year’s New Orleans Investment Conference. In his latest interview Lundin further clarifies Greenspan’s private thoughts on current economic and monetary policy and sheds light on the former Fed Chairman’s suggestion that ‘something big is coming.‘

Greenspan made some good points to me… He was concerned about inflation… He was specifically concerned in relation to the outstanding, or excess, reserves which are close to three trillion dollars being held on the Fed balance sheet now… That money is just hanging over the U.S. economy like a big water balloon of liquidity and it’s just searching for a pin.

In fact, Greenspan referred to it as a tinderbox of explosive inflation looking for a spark.

Watch the full insider interview:

Greenspan believes that in five years gold will be “measurably higher” than current levels because of the excess liquidity that will eventually be released into the open market. Such an event will undoubtedly lead to riots across America as the general public, woefully unprepared for rapidly rising prices when the pin finally pops the dollar bubble, loses access to affordable critical supplies like food, gas and other resources.

The collapse of the dollar, an inevitability suggested by Alan Greenspan, will be a game changer that results in the quadrupling of the cost of living for the average American.

All the while, as the United States stands on the brink of the most important event of our lives and in a world of extreme monetary and economic instability, stock markets are at all time highs. What’s more, the very resource sectors that matter – energy, agriculture, gold and the precious metals mining companies that get it out of the ground – have been decimated recently:

Most people [at the investment conference] seem to share my belief that we’re bouncing around the bottom… that we’ve not necessarily seen the absolute lowest prices in metals but that they can’t go much lower than this because we’re right around the all-in cost of production… Your downside risk is may be 20% but the upside risk for really good companies that have good projects is on the order of 300% to 400% once the market gets back into gear.

As noted by Brian Lundin, with the demand from central banks and the global public, coupled with the obvious fundamental problems inherent within the system, the price of gold should have been rising but has been crushed instead. This, of course, bodes well for investors and those who intend to protect themselves from the collapse to come. The reality of the situation is we’re in trouble and Alan Greenspan, arguably one of the most informed insiders on the planet, has implied that it’s more than likely unstoppable:

He [Greenspan] seemed to believe it was somewhat inevitable that the release of those reserves would create much higher inflation… the Fed just hopes they can get out of this alive… a normalized interest rate environment, which is what they say they seek over the longer term, is fiscally impossible for the U.S. at this point in time.

This is a well known fact within Fed circles and those on the inside are positioning themselves with hard assets for what will ultimately end in a collapse of the U.S. dollar.

pool S.: Deflation it will be; when the next crisis occurs.

Too much debt in the system. Chain-reaction defaults will obliterate all that debt that's held on the books as an "asset."

Just like 2008 on steroids: deflation is the Destroyer of Worlds...

brosephS: Deflation is a symptom, not the illness. Most "experts" assume it is the other way around.

bayOfP.: Wait a second, what happened to good old irrational exuberance?

[Fenix]

Nearly At "Full Employment"? 10 Reasons Why The Unemployment Numbers Are A Massive Lie
Tyler D. 03/09/2015

On Friday, we learned that the official “unemployment rate” has fallen to 5.5 percent. Since an unemployment rate of 5 percent is considered to be “full employment” by many economists, many in the mainstream media took this as a sign that the U.S. economy has almost fully “recovered” since the last recession. In fact, according to the Wall Street Journal, some Federal Reserve officials believe that “the U.S. economy is already at full employment“. But how can this possibly be? It certainly does not square with reality. Personally, I know people that have been struggling with unemployment for years and that still cannot find a decent job. And I get emails from readers all the time that are heartbroken because they are suffering through extended periods of unemployment.

So what in the world is going on? How can the government be telling us that we are nearly at “full employment” when so many people can’t find work? Could it be possible that the government numbers are misleading?

It is my contention that the official “unemployment rate” has become so politicized and so manipulated that it is essentially meaningless at this point. The following are 10 reasons why…

#1 Since February 2008, the size of the U.S. population has grown by 16.8 million people, but the number of full-time jobs has actually decreased by 140,000.

#2 The percentage of working age Americans that have a job right now is still about the same as it was during the depths of the last recession. Posted below is a chart that shows how the employment-population ratio has changed since the beginning of the decade. Does this look like a full-blown “employment recovery” to you?…

Employment Population Ratio 2015

#3 The primary reason for the decline in the official “unemployment rate” is the fact that the government now considers millions upon millions of long-term unemployed workers to “no longer be in the labor force”. Just check out the following numbers…

The number of Americans participating in the labor force has been on a decline for the past few years. Nearly 33 percent of the Americans above age 16 are not part of the workforce, the highest number since 1978. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report issued recently has found 92,898,000 Americans above age 16 not a part of the labor force of the country as on February 2015.



When President Obama took over the office in January 2009, nearly 80,529,000 Americans were not a part of the labor force. The number has increase by nearly 12 million over the last few years.

#4 Over the past couple of years, the labor force participation rate in this country has been hovering near mutli-decade lows…

The labor force participation rate hovered between 62.9 percent and 62.7 percent in the eleven months from April 2014 through February, and has been 62.9 percent or lower in 13 of the 17 months since October 2013.



Prior to that, the last time the rate was below 63 percent was 37 years ago, in March 1978 when it was 62.8 percent, the same rate it was in February.

#5 When you add the number of “officially unemployed” Americans (8.7 million) to the number of Americans “not in the labor force” (92.9 million), you get a grand total of 101.6 million working age Americans that do not have a job right now. Does that sound like “full employment” to you?

#6 The quality of our jobs continues to decline. Right now, only 44 percent of U.S. adults are employed for 30 or more hours each week.

#7 Millions upon millions of Americans have been forced to take part-time jobs because that is all they can find, and wages for American workers are at depressingly low levels. The following numbers come directly from the Social Security Administration…

-39 percent of American workers make less than $20,000 a year.

-52 percent of American workers make less than $30,000 a year.

-63 percent of American workers make less than $40,000 a year.

-72 percent of American workers make less than $50,000 a year.

#8 The average duration of unemployment for an unemployed worker is still about twice as long as it was just prior to the last recession.

#9 Most Americans feel as though the Obama administration has done little to nothing to help the middle class. Just consider the following poll numbers…

According to a new poll by the Pew Research Center, Americans see government policies under the Obama administration as having mostly benefited wealthy people, large corporations and financial institutions.

Seventy-two percent of respondents said government policies have done little or nothing to help the middle class, and 65 percent said they have done nothing to help the poor. Sixty-eight percent said the policies have done nothing to help small businesses.

Meanwhile, 45 percent said the policies have done a “great deal” to help large banks and financial institutions, 38 percent say they have helped large corporations, and 36 percent say they have helped the wealthy.

#10 If the unemployment rate was calculated honestly, we would all be talking about the horrific “unemployment crisis” that we were currently enduring. According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, the real unemployment rate in the United States right now is above 23 percent.

Our politicians and the mainstream media are attempting to convince us that everything is just fine.

But what they are telling us simply does not match the cold, hard reality on the streets.

And since the talking heads on television are proclaiming that we are nearly at “full employment”, that just makes millions upon millions of Americans that can’t seem to find work no matter how hard they try feel even worse than they already do.

If jobs are “easy to get”, then those that are chronically unemployment must have “something wrong” with them. That is the message that we are being given. If the mainstream media says that unemployment has gone way down, then anyone that is still unemployed must be really “lazy”, right?

When you are unemployed for an extended period of time, it can really suck the life right out of you. It can be really tempting to believe that you are viewed as a failure by your family and friends. And for the government to lie to us like this just makes things even harder.

If you are unemployed and can’t find a job right now, I want you to understand that you are caught in the midst of a long-term downward economic spiral which is going to get a lot worse.

When the government tells you that we are in a “recovery”, they are lying to you.

And when the government tells you that things are about to get a lot better, they are lying to you.

Everyone has times in their lives when they get knocked down.

The key is to always get back up and to never, ever stop fighting.

Yes, we are facing some really hard economic times. But that does not mean that your life is over. Never give up, and never give in to fear. Just do what you can with what you have today, and tomorrow get up and fight with everything that you have got.

The truth is that the best chapters of your life could be just around the corner.

Just don’t sit back and wait for the government to save you. If you are waiting for the government to save you, then you are going to be deeply disappointed.