8:42 ¡Esto sí que es una subida de precio objetivo!
Los analistas de FBR & Co. han subido la recomendación de Netflix a sobreponderar desde igual que el mercado, y el precio objetivo a ¡900$ desde los 400$! anteriores.
Netflix cerró ayer a 475$. En preapertura sube un 11,70% a 531$.
After Rescuing Ukraine, US Taxpayers To Bail Out Iraq Next
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/16/2015 15:07
Having generously (if not obliviously) stepped up to the plate to bail out Ukraine (with open-ended bond guarantees), US taxpayers are opening their wallets again - this time for Iraq. As Reuters reports, cheap oil has ravage Iraq's state finances just as the government faces rising military spending from the war it is waging against ISIS; and so it has decided to issue $5 billion in international bonds. However, Iraq is considering other ways to cover its budget deficit, including asking the IMF (i.e. US taxpayers) for relief funding and also requesting the controversial U.S. Export-Import Bank (US Taxpayers) finance the purchase of 10 planes from Boeing Co, which cost the government $500 million.
Cheap oil is ravaging Iraq's state finances, just as the government faces rising military spending from the war it is waging against Islamic State militants. As Reuters reports, Iraqi Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari said the government was facing a budget deficit of $25 billion, out of a budget of approximately $100 billion. Iraq's 2015 budget is based on an oil price of $56 per barrel, he said.
Iraq has decided to issue $5 billion in international bonds and is negotiating the terms as one of several measures as it seeks to relieve the pressure of low oil prices on its finances.
Iraq is considering a number of other measures to cover its budget deficit, including asking the International Monetary Fund for relief funding of between $400 million and $700 million, Zebari said.
"We haven't made a decision, but I think they (the IMF) are willing to provide that support, but they need the government to do more cuts on the public spending," he said. "Not as a precondition, but really they have advised that is the way to release these funds."
Iraq is also requesting the U.S. Export-Import Bank finance the purchase of 10 planes from Boeing Co, which cost the government $500 million, Zebari said.
"We are seeking to finance those planes ... through the Ex-Im Bank, and they (Boeing) will pay us back the money we have paid already," Zebari said.
Iraq has also been building up debts to the companies developing its oilfields. Zebari said Iraq had started paying back its debts to the international oil companies, but declined to say how much.
"We are paying them actually, not according to their expectation but at least we started paying them," he said.
The government has also managed to borrow some $7 billion from semi-state-owned Iraqi banks to cover its shortfall, Zebari said.
What is perhaps even more worrying, for a nation in such chaos already, is the Iraqi people's dependence on government handouts...
Though Iraq's finances are no longer in a panic state, Zebari said, fundamental changes are needed to ensure Iraq's economic health in the future, including reforming a bloated government bureaucracy that he said employs some four million Iraqis at a cost of $3.5 billion per month for wages.
"This rentier state government has been overburdened by this social commitment ... to a large section of the population," he said.
And what that means should the money dry up...
We wonder how struggling Shale Oil producers will feel as they approach bankruptcy when US taxpayer funds are bailing out Iraqis suffering from low oil prices.
Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
Re: Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
por Fenix » Jue Abr 16, 2015 5:00 pm
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
por Fenix » Jue Abr 16, 2015 5:01 pm
Las preocupaciones sobre Grecia lastran a las Bolsas europeas
Jueves, 16 de Abril del 2015 - 8:48:18
La decisión del Fondo Monetario Internacional de rechazar la solicitud de Grecia para retrasar los pagos de la deuda ha provocado una huida de los inversores de las acciones europeas y buscar refugio en los bonos.
El Dax alemán ha dejado atrás los máximos históricos, alcanzados por una mejora del sentimiento inversor gracias al programa de compras de bonos del BCE, y ahora se deja un 1,75 por ciento a 12.037 puntos (ver gráfico adjunto vía FT). El francés CAC 40 retrocede un 0,6 por ciento a 5224. El Ibex 35 pierde un 1,31 por ciento a 11.623.
Los rendimientos de intereses sobre los bonos de referencia de Francia y Alemania, que se mueven inversamente a los precios, ha tocado nuevos mínimos históricos.
El Gobierno griego anti-rescate del primer ministro Alexis Tsipras están atrapados en un "juego de la gallina" con los acreedores internacionales que se niegan a desbloquear los fondos de rescate a menos que Atenas apruebe una serie de reformas económicas y privatizaciones.
Tsipras fue elegido con la promesa de evitar este tipo de reformas. Pero sin un acuerdo, el país se enfrenta a un default, ya que debe cerca de 1.000 millones de euros al FMI que debe pagar mayo, junto con los gastos de pensiones y salarios de los empleados públicos.
9:19 Tsipras ve cuatro puntos de desacuerdo con la UE/FMI, pero se muestra optimista
El primer ministro Tsipras es "firmemente optimista" sobre un posible acuerdo con la UE/FMI a finales de este mes.
Dice que hay cuatro puntos de desacuerdo: Trabajo, reforma de las pensiones , subidas de IVA y la venta de activos estatales.
9:17 Constancio: el BCE dice que continúa la moderada recuperación de la zona euro
El vicepresidente del Banco Central Europeo, Vitor Constancio, dice que la política monetaria del BCE debe seguir siendo acomodaticia, aunque señala que es importante ser consciente de las limitaciones de la política monetaria.
9:09 La lira turca consigue rebotar tras cinco sesiones de caídas consecutivas
La lira turca cotiza ligeramente al alza frente al dólar después de caer durante cinco sesiones consecutivas y tocar un nuevo mínimo de 2,7 por dólar el martes.
La lira cotiza con una subida del 0,87 por ciento a 2,69 unidades por dólar, pero algunos estrategas de divisas no están convencidos de que esta pausa en las ventas dure mucho tiempo, ya que Turquía se dirige hacia unas elecciones parlamentarias en junio.
9:09 Caterpillar: Mantener encima de 78$ y comprar su supera 85,9$
[ CATERPILLAR ]
Vuelve a confirmar soporte en 78$, nivel que aguanta los envites bajistas desde 2012.
La estabilización que desarrolla en el corto plazo presenta resistencia en 85,9$, cuya superación daría virtualidad a una formación teórica de doble suelo.
Los indicadores semanales generan lecturas extremas, las cuales sugieren la improbabilidad de perder por ahora el soporte en 78$.
Recomendación: MANTENER ENCIMA 78$/ COMPRA ESPECULATIVA ENCIMA 85,9$
Eduardo Faus
Original de Renta 4 Banco
9:04 Varoufakis nega que haya pedido al FMI saltarse los pagos
El ministro de Finanzas griego Varoufakis ha declarado que nunca ha solicitado saltarse pagos al FMI.
Jueves, 16 de Abril del 2015 - 8:48:18
La decisión del Fondo Monetario Internacional de rechazar la solicitud de Grecia para retrasar los pagos de la deuda ha provocado una huida de los inversores de las acciones europeas y buscar refugio en los bonos.
El Dax alemán ha dejado atrás los máximos históricos, alcanzados por una mejora del sentimiento inversor gracias al programa de compras de bonos del BCE, y ahora se deja un 1,75 por ciento a 12.037 puntos (ver gráfico adjunto vía FT). El francés CAC 40 retrocede un 0,6 por ciento a 5224. El Ibex 35 pierde un 1,31 por ciento a 11.623.
Los rendimientos de intereses sobre los bonos de referencia de Francia y Alemania, que se mueven inversamente a los precios, ha tocado nuevos mínimos históricos.
El Gobierno griego anti-rescate del primer ministro Alexis Tsipras están atrapados en un "juego de la gallina" con los acreedores internacionales que se niegan a desbloquear los fondos de rescate a menos que Atenas apruebe una serie de reformas económicas y privatizaciones.
Tsipras fue elegido con la promesa de evitar este tipo de reformas. Pero sin un acuerdo, el país se enfrenta a un default, ya que debe cerca de 1.000 millones de euros al FMI que debe pagar mayo, junto con los gastos de pensiones y salarios de los empleados públicos.
9:19 Tsipras ve cuatro puntos de desacuerdo con la UE/FMI, pero se muestra optimista
El primer ministro Tsipras es "firmemente optimista" sobre un posible acuerdo con la UE/FMI a finales de este mes.
Dice que hay cuatro puntos de desacuerdo: Trabajo, reforma de las pensiones , subidas de IVA y la venta de activos estatales.
9:17 Constancio: el BCE dice que continúa la moderada recuperación de la zona euro
El vicepresidente del Banco Central Europeo, Vitor Constancio, dice que la política monetaria del BCE debe seguir siendo acomodaticia, aunque señala que es importante ser consciente de las limitaciones de la política monetaria.
9:09 La lira turca consigue rebotar tras cinco sesiones de caídas consecutivas
La lira turca cotiza ligeramente al alza frente al dólar después de caer durante cinco sesiones consecutivas y tocar un nuevo mínimo de 2,7 por dólar el martes.
La lira cotiza con una subida del 0,87 por ciento a 2,69 unidades por dólar, pero algunos estrategas de divisas no están convencidos de que esta pausa en las ventas dure mucho tiempo, ya que Turquía se dirige hacia unas elecciones parlamentarias en junio.
9:09 Caterpillar: Mantener encima de 78$ y comprar su supera 85,9$
[ CATERPILLAR ]
Vuelve a confirmar soporte en 78$, nivel que aguanta los envites bajistas desde 2012.
La estabilización que desarrolla en el corto plazo presenta resistencia en 85,9$, cuya superación daría virtualidad a una formación teórica de doble suelo.
Los indicadores semanales generan lecturas extremas, las cuales sugieren la improbabilidad de perder por ahora el soporte en 78$.
Recomendación: MANTENER ENCIMA 78$/ COMPRA ESPECULATIVA ENCIMA 85,9$
Eduardo Faus
Original de Renta 4 Banco
9:04 Varoufakis nega que haya pedido al FMI saltarse los pagos
El ministro de Finanzas griego Varoufakis ha declarado que nunca ha solicitado saltarse pagos al FMI.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
por Fenix » Jue Abr 16, 2015 5:05 pm
10:00 Índice manufacturero Fed Filadelfia abril 7,5 vs 6,0 esperado
El índice de empleo en marzo ascendió a 11,5 desde 3,5 anterior. Los nuevos pedidos caen a 0,7 desde 3,9 anterior.
Datos neutrales a ligeramente positivos para los mercados de acciones.
9:55 El rendimiento del bono alemán acelera las caidas
Menos de 24 horas después de que Mario Draghi señalara el Banco Central Europeo no tiene ninguna intención de frenar el ritmo de compras de activos, los rendimientos de los bonos alemanes vuelven a tocar mínimos acercándose al cero por ciento.
El plan de compras de bonos del banco central ha sido el último estimulo para la demanda de la deuda del gobierno alemán, cuyos rendimientos han estado cayendo constantemente desde septiembre de 2013.
En las operaciones de la tarde en Londres, el rendimiento del bono a diez años cayó al 0.072 por ciento.
La reunión mensual del BCE había sido precedida por la especulación de que Draghi podría indicar que el fin del programa cuantitativo podría llegar antes de lo esperado o que los políticos estaban preocupados de que pudieran quedarse sin bonos adecuados para comprar.
Draghi utilizó su conferencia de prensa para alejar a ambas ideas.
10:22 Fischer (Fed) dice que la evolución económica decidirá si la Fed sube las tasas
Recordamos que Stanley Fischer es el Vice Presidente de la Reserva Federal y votante en el FOMC, y por lo general tiene una postura "dovish" sobre la política monetaria.
10:36 Rumor: Intel podría comprar Xilinx
[ INTEL ]
Rumores de mercado señalan que Intel (INTC) podría comprar Xilinx (XLNX).
En una reacción inmediata, las acciones de XLNX subieron un 1,2% desde 44,06 dólares a 44,58 dólares.
El índice de empleo en marzo ascendió a 11,5 desde 3,5 anterior. Los nuevos pedidos caen a 0,7 desde 3,9 anterior.
Datos neutrales a ligeramente positivos para los mercados de acciones.
9:55 El rendimiento del bono alemán acelera las caidas
Menos de 24 horas después de que Mario Draghi señalara el Banco Central Europeo no tiene ninguna intención de frenar el ritmo de compras de activos, los rendimientos de los bonos alemanes vuelven a tocar mínimos acercándose al cero por ciento.
El plan de compras de bonos del banco central ha sido el último estimulo para la demanda de la deuda del gobierno alemán, cuyos rendimientos han estado cayendo constantemente desde septiembre de 2013.
En las operaciones de la tarde en Londres, el rendimiento del bono a diez años cayó al 0.072 por ciento.
La reunión mensual del BCE había sido precedida por la especulación de que Draghi podría indicar que el fin del programa cuantitativo podría llegar antes de lo esperado o que los políticos estaban preocupados de que pudieran quedarse sin bonos adecuados para comprar.
Draghi utilizó su conferencia de prensa para alejar a ambas ideas.
10:22 Fischer (Fed) dice que la evolución económica decidirá si la Fed sube las tasas
Recordamos que Stanley Fischer es el Vice Presidente de la Reserva Federal y votante en el FOMC, y por lo general tiene una postura "dovish" sobre la política monetaria.
10:36 Rumor: Intel podría comprar Xilinx
[ INTEL ]
Rumores de mercado señalan que Intel (INTC) podría comprar Xilinx (XLNX).
En una reacción inmediata, las acciones de XLNX subieron un 1,2% desde 44,06 dólares a 44,58 dólares.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
por Fenix » Jue Abr 16, 2015 5:08 pm
10:49 Brent junio. Objetivo en +64,42
El movimiento tomó un impulso significativo después de superar el máximos de 60,65 y la banda de la media exponencial de 55 sesiones (ahora soporte en 60.65/58.55).
La siguiente zona de atracción/resistencia se sitúa en las referencias de Fibonacci de 63.20\65.05, agrupadas en torno al máximo de febrero de 64.42.
Resistencias 63.47 63.75 64.05 64.42 65.05
Soportes 62.65 61.40 60.65 59.75 58.55
10:43 Dombrovskis (UE) dice que ha habido un progreso limitado en las conversaciones con Grecia
11:24 SocGen cree que el BCE puede tener que comprar bonos corporativos
Los analistas de Société Générale creen que el BCE podría tener que entrar en el mercado de bonos corporativos ya que el banco central se enfrenta a un problema oferta.
11:17 S&P 500 futuro junio. Objetivo en nuevos máximos
El comportamiento del precio parece todavía positivo a pesar de la proximidad de los últimos máximos en 2107\09. Si/cuando se superen, se abriría la puerta a la referencia del 161,8% de Fibonacci en 2115, pero no se descarta resistencia en la línea de tendencia en 2135.
Si no hay sorpresas la zona de soporte de 2085/2070 debería aguantar la presión vendedora. Tramos intradía de sobreventa y sobrecompra en 2077 y 2120, respectivamente.
Resistencias 2105 2107 2109 2115 2135
Soportes 2095 2085 2076 2070 2061
11:10 Morgan Stanley recomienda cortos del Bund vs Tesoro EEUU
Los analistas de Morgan Stanley recomiendan la venta de los bonos alemanes frente a los bonos estadounidenses, ya que no parece que el Banco Central Europeo pueda completar su QE en su forma actual.
11:03 250 Años de producción de energía
Desde la leña al fracking
Con la previsión de la EIA de un barril de petróleo a 250 dólares en los próximos 20 años , uno se pregunta ¿cuánto pasará antes de que la leña vuelva a ser la principal fuente de energía del mundo?
El movimiento tomó un impulso significativo después de superar el máximos de 60,65 y la banda de la media exponencial de 55 sesiones (ahora soporte en 60.65/58.55).
La siguiente zona de atracción/resistencia se sitúa en las referencias de Fibonacci de 63.20\65.05, agrupadas en torno al máximo de febrero de 64.42.
Resistencias 63.47 63.75 64.05 64.42 65.05
Soportes 62.65 61.40 60.65 59.75 58.55
10:43 Dombrovskis (UE) dice que ha habido un progreso limitado en las conversaciones con Grecia
11:24 SocGen cree que el BCE puede tener que comprar bonos corporativos
Los analistas de Société Générale creen que el BCE podría tener que entrar en el mercado de bonos corporativos ya que el banco central se enfrenta a un problema oferta.
11:17 S&P 500 futuro junio. Objetivo en nuevos máximos
El comportamiento del precio parece todavía positivo a pesar de la proximidad de los últimos máximos en 2107\09. Si/cuando se superen, se abriría la puerta a la referencia del 161,8% de Fibonacci en 2115, pero no se descarta resistencia en la línea de tendencia en 2135.
Si no hay sorpresas la zona de soporte de 2085/2070 debería aguantar la presión vendedora. Tramos intradía de sobreventa y sobrecompra en 2077 y 2120, respectivamente.
Resistencias 2105 2107 2109 2115 2135
Soportes 2095 2085 2076 2070 2061
11:10 Morgan Stanley recomienda cortos del Bund vs Tesoro EEUU
Los analistas de Morgan Stanley recomiendan la venta de los bonos alemanes frente a los bonos estadounidenses, ya que no parece que el Banco Central Europeo pueda completar su QE en su forma actual.
11:03 250 Años de producción de energía
Desde la leña al fracking
Con la previsión de la EIA de un barril de petróleo a 250 dólares en los próximos 20 años , uno se pregunta ¿cuánto pasará antes de que la leña vuelva a ser la principal fuente de energía del mundo?
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
por Fenix » Jue Abr 16, 2015 5:11 pm
11:31 Euro yen. Se mantiene el riesgo de una caida hasta 124,97/95
El euro yen (EURJPY) sigue consolidando lateralmente, pero al mismo tiempo limitado por debajo de 128,72/80 (resistencia horizontal y media de 13 días). Buscamos un movimiento a la baja hacia 126.84, seguido por 126.09. La extensión del descenso nos podría llevar a 124,97/95 donde esperaríamos un rebote. Una ruptura bajista abriría las puertas al retroceso del 50 % del rally 2012/14 en 121.94.
Resistencia en 127.89, seguida de 128.24/37.
Estrategia: Cortos en 127.60, stop por encima de 128.40 125.05.
Grecia sigue siendo un riesgo para el mercado bursátil europeo
El Ibex 35 retrocede un 1,42% a 11.611,7
Jueves, 16 de Abril del 2015 - 11:41:10
No gracias. Ese es el mensaje que el Fondo Monetario Internacional ha mandado a Grecia y que ha provocado que los rendimientos de la deuda griega suban con fuerza y las Bolsas europeas corrijan posiciones desde niveles récord.
El Ibex 35 se dejó un 1,42% a 11.611,7 y el Euro Stoxx 50 retrocede un 1,35% a 3.752,25.
La rentabilidad del bono de julio de 2016 - que se mueve inversamente al precio - ascendió 4 puntos básicos, hasta el 21,49 por ciento, frente a un máximo de este año del 23,44 por ciento. Los precios de los bonos con vencimiento en 2019, 2025 y 2027 también bajaron, con el rendimiento subiendo 14 pbs en el bono a 10 años al 11,40 por ciento.
Rentabilidad del bono griego a 3 años
La oleada de ventas fue provocada por un artículo publicado en el Financial Times que dijo que el FMI se negó a reprogramar los pagos de los bonos griegos que vencen este año a raíz de una petición oficial de los responsables políticos en Atenas.
El primer ministro de Grecia tiene que hacer concesiones a los acreedores pronto, antes de que la situación se deteriore aún más, señala Janis Emmanouilidis del Centro de Política Europea, un think tank.
Janis Emmanouilidis: "Es la hora de que el Gobierno de Tsipras alcance un compromiso. Las consecuencias económicas y políticas negativas son demasiado altas si la evolución entra en una espiral fuera de control".
Los inversores y los analistas están vigilando la fecha del 24 de abril, cuando los ministros de finanzas de toda la zona euro se reunirán en Riga para discutir las reformas planteadas por Alexis Tsipras, primer ministro griego. Grecia debe más de 2.500 millones de euros al Fondo Monetario Internacional que tiene que pagar en mayo y junio, junto con los gastos de pensiones y salarios de los empleados públicos.
Los estrategas de Rabobank dijeron que ven el desarrollo de la situación más como "una táctica de negociación que como una amenaza sustancial" y que el gobierno probablemente estaba buscando pacificar a su electorado.
En última instancia creemos que cuando llegue el momento, el gobierno griego tiene más que perder si no paga sus deudas.
La renovada tensión por la situación en Grecia apoyó la demanda sobre los bonos de referencia alemanes. El rendimiento de los bonos a 10 años, que han estado subiendo con fuerza desde el período previo a la compra de activos por importe de 60 mil millones de euros al mes del Banco Central Europeo, cayó por debajo del 0,10 por ciento.
Los precios de la deuda alemana de corto plazo han subido tanto que los rendimientos de los bonos hasta los ocho años se han girado a negativo, una situación inédita hasta ahora.
"Es un día de corrección hoy, todo lo que ha hecho que los inversores entraran en los mercados de riesgo recientemente, se ha dado la vuelta", señalaba un jefe de inversiones en Alemania. "Los gestores de cartera están recogiendo beneficios de las acciones que mejor se han comportado. Es un típico día de aversión al riesgo".
Cae el precio del petróleo tras conocerse el aumento de producción de Arabia Saudí
La OPEP dice que la producción total del grupo aumentó en 810 mil barriles por día, pero mantiene su previsión de crecimiento de la demanda total sin cambios, según fuentes.
Arabia Saudí dice que su producción se incrementó en 659 mil barriles por día en marzo.
El Brent se giró a la baja después de este anuncio y ahora cae un 0,66% a 62,91 dólares.
El euro dólar extendió el rebote iniciado el martes y repunta un 0,44% a 1,0723.
El euro yen (EURJPY) sigue consolidando lateralmente, pero al mismo tiempo limitado por debajo de 128,72/80 (resistencia horizontal y media de 13 días). Buscamos un movimiento a la baja hacia 126.84, seguido por 126.09. La extensión del descenso nos podría llevar a 124,97/95 donde esperaríamos un rebote. Una ruptura bajista abriría las puertas al retroceso del 50 % del rally 2012/14 en 121.94.
Resistencia en 127.89, seguida de 128.24/37.
Estrategia: Cortos en 127.60, stop por encima de 128.40 125.05.
Grecia sigue siendo un riesgo para el mercado bursátil europeo
El Ibex 35 retrocede un 1,42% a 11.611,7
Jueves, 16 de Abril del 2015 - 11:41:10
No gracias. Ese es el mensaje que el Fondo Monetario Internacional ha mandado a Grecia y que ha provocado que los rendimientos de la deuda griega suban con fuerza y las Bolsas europeas corrijan posiciones desde niveles récord.
El Ibex 35 se dejó un 1,42% a 11.611,7 y el Euro Stoxx 50 retrocede un 1,35% a 3.752,25.
La rentabilidad del bono de julio de 2016 - que se mueve inversamente al precio - ascendió 4 puntos básicos, hasta el 21,49 por ciento, frente a un máximo de este año del 23,44 por ciento. Los precios de los bonos con vencimiento en 2019, 2025 y 2027 también bajaron, con el rendimiento subiendo 14 pbs en el bono a 10 años al 11,40 por ciento.
Rentabilidad del bono griego a 3 años
La oleada de ventas fue provocada por un artículo publicado en el Financial Times que dijo que el FMI se negó a reprogramar los pagos de los bonos griegos que vencen este año a raíz de una petición oficial de los responsables políticos en Atenas.
El primer ministro de Grecia tiene que hacer concesiones a los acreedores pronto, antes de que la situación se deteriore aún más, señala Janis Emmanouilidis del Centro de Política Europea, un think tank.
Janis Emmanouilidis: "Es la hora de que el Gobierno de Tsipras alcance un compromiso. Las consecuencias económicas y políticas negativas son demasiado altas si la evolución entra en una espiral fuera de control".
Los inversores y los analistas están vigilando la fecha del 24 de abril, cuando los ministros de finanzas de toda la zona euro se reunirán en Riga para discutir las reformas planteadas por Alexis Tsipras, primer ministro griego. Grecia debe más de 2.500 millones de euros al Fondo Monetario Internacional que tiene que pagar en mayo y junio, junto con los gastos de pensiones y salarios de los empleados públicos.
Los estrategas de Rabobank dijeron que ven el desarrollo de la situación más como "una táctica de negociación que como una amenaza sustancial" y que el gobierno probablemente estaba buscando pacificar a su electorado.
En última instancia creemos que cuando llegue el momento, el gobierno griego tiene más que perder si no paga sus deudas.
La renovada tensión por la situación en Grecia apoyó la demanda sobre los bonos de referencia alemanes. El rendimiento de los bonos a 10 años, que han estado subiendo con fuerza desde el período previo a la compra de activos por importe de 60 mil millones de euros al mes del Banco Central Europeo, cayó por debajo del 0,10 por ciento.
Los precios de la deuda alemana de corto plazo han subido tanto que los rendimientos de los bonos hasta los ocho años se han girado a negativo, una situación inédita hasta ahora.
"Es un día de corrección hoy, todo lo que ha hecho que los inversores entraran en los mercados de riesgo recientemente, se ha dado la vuelta", señalaba un jefe de inversiones en Alemania. "Los gestores de cartera están recogiendo beneficios de las acciones que mejor se han comportado. Es un típico día de aversión al riesgo".
Cae el precio del petróleo tras conocerse el aumento de producción de Arabia Saudí
La OPEP dice que la producción total del grupo aumentó en 810 mil barriles por día, pero mantiene su previsión de crecimiento de la demanda total sin cambios, según fuentes.
Arabia Saudí dice que su producción se incrementó en 659 mil barriles por día en marzo.
El Brent se giró a la baja después de este anuncio y ahora cae un 0,66% a 62,91 dólares.
El euro dólar extendió el rebote iniciado el martes y repunta un 0,44% a 1,0723.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
por Fenix » Jue Abr 16, 2015 5:15 pm
El índice HANG SENG retoma la tendencia alcista nacida en 2009
Jueves, 16 de Abril del 2015 - 12:00:00
Violenta solvencia de la resistencia de 25.000 puntos, abriendo de forma clara el camino al alza hacia los máximos históricos del año 2007 en 32.000 puntos, pese a que la proyección alcista en el medio/largo plazo de la formación triangular rota al alza apunta a niveles superiores. En el corto plazo la “sobrecompra” alcanzada en los indicadores es elevada, lo que no hace extraño cierta consolidación intermedia.
¿Algún ETF que replique el comportamiento del índice HANG SENG?
El ETF cuyo ticket es THSI, replica el comportamiento de este indicador chino. Se puede consultar la ficha descriptiva en el buscador de la web: Recomendación: COMPRAR MEDIO PLAZO
Eduardo Faus
Original de Renta 4 Banco
Jueves, 16 de Abril del 2015 - 12:00:00
Violenta solvencia de la resistencia de 25.000 puntos, abriendo de forma clara el camino al alza hacia los máximos históricos del año 2007 en 32.000 puntos, pese a que la proyección alcista en el medio/largo plazo de la formación triangular rota al alza apunta a niveles superiores. En el corto plazo la “sobrecompra” alcanzada en los indicadores es elevada, lo que no hace extraño cierta consolidación intermedia.
¿Algún ETF que replique el comportamiento del índice HANG SENG?
El ETF cuyo ticket es THSI, replica el comportamiento de este indicador chino. Se puede consultar la ficha descriptiva en el buscador de la web: Recomendación: COMPRAR MEDIO PLAZO
Eduardo Faus
Original de Renta 4 Banco
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
por Fenix » Jue Abr 16, 2015 5:19 pm
3 Things: Retail Sales, Real Unemployment, Optimism
04/16/2015 14:15
Submitted by Lance Roberts via
Should You Ignore Recent Retail Sales Weakness?
Over the past several weeks I have heard repeated comments that you should ignore the recent retail sales weakness for a variety of reasons such as cold winter weather, consumers don't believe the drop in gas prices, etc. Putting aside the fact that cold weather almost always occurs during winter (which is why the data is seasonally adjusted to begin with), or that more than 70% of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck, should we dismiss the data entirely?
Scott Grannis recently penned:
"Retail sales in the first quarter of this year were obviously impacted by lower gasoline prices and bad weather. Both of those have faded in importance, however, so it's important to see if there has been any change in the underlying trends. As I see it, nothing much has changed. The economy continues to grow, but at a disappointingly slow pace compared to other recoveries."
(Note: I have replicated Scott's original analysis and added recessions and deviation for clarification)
Retail-Sales-ExAutoGas-Linear-041615
Temps-2014-15
Scott is correct in the context that retail sales were impacted by lower gasoline prices over the last couple of quarters as gasoline prices are a direct input in retail sales. (read more here) However, once you strip out that impact it is hard to blame the rest of the decline simply on weather. Yes, the Northeast was blasted by very cold temperatures and snow, but not the South and Southwest. Given that California and Texas are heavily populated states with high levels of consumption, weather does not completely explain the drop. This is particularly the case when you factor in the aforementioned seasonal adjustments.
The real point I want to make is that the analysis above does not tell us very much at all. As noted by the highlighted circles, linear retail sales do not provide much of a signal to warn of the onset of economic recessions.
In December of 2007, I penned that:
"We are currently either in, or about to be in, the worst recession since the 'Great Depression.'"
One of the primary reasons for that call was the quarterly decline in retail sales at the time. (Remember, retail sales comprise about 40% of PCE which makes up almost 70% of GDP.) My good friend Doug Short recently charted the current status of quarterly retail sales quite nicely.
Dshort-RetailSales-041615
I added the red lines to Doug's chart to point out the importance of the data. While much of the analysis from the mainstream focus on near-term events to suggest reasons for continued economic optimism, it is well worth noting that the overall TREND of the data suggests a much more cautious view.
It is worth noting that quarterly retail sales are at levels that have preceded the last two recessions. One problem with retail sales data is the shortness of its history, however, the substantial decline in retail sales trends clearly suggests that the weakness in consumption is more of an overall economic issue rather than a one-off weather related event.
After three straight months of negative retail sales data, it is not surprising to see a "bounce" in activity. The question going forward whether or not that bounce is sustainable?
Optimistically Optimistic
Mutual fund company Natixis recently conducted a survey of 750 investors that had over $200,000 in investable assets. (As discussed previously, it's hard to believe that these individuals are contained within the top 10% of the population)
"While investors may be looking for returns, they are 'extraordinarily optimistic about their investment prospects in both the short and long term,' says Natixis. Respondents say they need 10.1 percent return on their investments, and 81 percent of them feel their expectations are realistic.
Fifty-four percent expect their returns this year to be better than 2014.
Stocks will be the best-performing asset class this year, according to 45 percent of the respondents, followed by 17 percent who say cash will be the top performer."
While it has been repeatedly stated that individuals have "missed out" on surging asset prices, it has only been those with little or no money actually to invest with. However, for those that are invested, they are as optimistic as at every previous bull market peak in history. As shown in the chart below from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), individuals are at the highest levels of stock allocations, and lowest cash, since the financial crisis.
AAII-Allocations-041615
Let's do some rough math.
Historically, stock price appreciation has roughly equated to the growth in the economy plus inflation. That has been about 6% on average from 1900-2000. Throw in dividends, which averaged about 4% during that span, and you get to 10%.
Currently, economic growth is running at about 2%. Let's round up inflation to 2% and add dividends of 2%. That's a rough expectation of 6% going forward which will disappoint those expecting 10% annually.
Valuations are another problem. As discussed previously, from current levels of valuation in the markets forward expected returns are likely to fall to just 1-2% annualized. After dividends that is 3-4%.
The reality is that investors have NEVER achieved 10% annualized returns, even during the ripping bull market of the 90's. Over the next decade there will likely be another very nasty, mean reverting event, that will once again devastate investor capital, psychology, and long-term returns.
Why this lesson is never learned is beyond me.
What Is The Real Unemployment Rate?
Each month the Federal Reserve, the financial markets, and investors are glued to the release of the latest BLS employment report. (This is probably the single most overly analyzed and least important of all economic indicators.)
The current 5.5% unemployment has been widely touted as a "sure sign of economic recovery" and that the Fed's monetary policy interventions have clearly worked. However, is that really the case?
One of the issues that has been widely discussed is the shrinkage of the labor force which may be obfuscating the true level of unemployment in the country. With 1-in-4 individuals on some sort of government assistance and 93 million no longer counted, it is hard to suggest that 94.5% of the working age population is gainfully employed.
I have discussed many times previously the labor force participation rate of 16-54-year-olds, the ones that should be working, is lower today than it was at the peak of the financial crisis. Also, the number of individuals over the age of 65 that are still working, when they should be retiring, is at the highest levels on record. All of this suggests that something is not quite right with a 5.5% unemployment rate.
To this point, the chart below shows the difference between the current unemployment rate and the unemployment rate including all those "no longer counted" as part of the labor force. (Source: Research Affiliates)
Unemployment-Rate-WorkForce-Adj-041615
"In fact, most of the drop in the unemployment rate can be attributed to people leaving the workforce rather than job creation. A huge 'shadow inventory' of unemployed workers hangs over the labor market, unrecognized in the official numbers. An improving economy could encourage many non-participants to return to job-seeking status. If the labor participation ratio were to return to its 2008 level, today's unemployment rate would sit at 10.4%! This shadow inventory helps explain the tepid wage growth we have seen even as the job market becomes tighter, and it will likely continue to keep a lid on wage growth going forward."
It also explains why economic growth, and retail sales show above, has remained substantially weak since the end of the financial crisis.
04/16/2015 14:15
Submitted by Lance Roberts via
Should You Ignore Recent Retail Sales Weakness?
Over the past several weeks I have heard repeated comments that you should ignore the recent retail sales weakness for a variety of reasons such as cold winter weather, consumers don't believe the drop in gas prices, etc. Putting aside the fact that cold weather almost always occurs during winter (which is why the data is seasonally adjusted to begin with), or that more than 70% of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck, should we dismiss the data entirely?
Scott Grannis recently penned:
"Retail sales in the first quarter of this year were obviously impacted by lower gasoline prices and bad weather. Both of those have faded in importance, however, so it's important to see if there has been any change in the underlying trends. As I see it, nothing much has changed. The economy continues to grow, but at a disappointingly slow pace compared to other recoveries."
(Note: I have replicated Scott's original analysis and added recessions and deviation for clarification)
Retail-Sales-ExAutoGas-Linear-041615
Temps-2014-15
Scott is correct in the context that retail sales were impacted by lower gasoline prices over the last couple of quarters as gasoline prices are a direct input in retail sales. (read more here) However, once you strip out that impact it is hard to blame the rest of the decline simply on weather. Yes, the Northeast was blasted by very cold temperatures and snow, but not the South and Southwest. Given that California and Texas are heavily populated states with high levels of consumption, weather does not completely explain the drop. This is particularly the case when you factor in the aforementioned seasonal adjustments.
The real point I want to make is that the analysis above does not tell us very much at all. As noted by the highlighted circles, linear retail sales do not provide much of a signal to warn of the onset of economic recessions.
In December of 2007, I penned that:
"We are currently either in, or about to be in, the worst recession since the 'Great Depression.'"
One of the primary reasons for that call was the quarterly decline in retail sales at the time. (Remember, retail sales comprise about 40% of PCE which makes up almost 70% of GDP.) My good friend Doug Short recently charted the current status of quarterly retail sales quite nicely.
Dshort-RetailSales-041615
I added the red lines to Doug's chart to point out the importance of the data. While much of the analysis from the mainstream focus on near-term events to suggest reasons for continued economic optimism, it is well worth noting that the overall TREND of the data suggests a much more cautious view.
It is worth noting that quarterly retail sales are at levels that have preceded the last two recessions. One problem with retail sales data is the shortness of its history, however, the substantial decline in retail sales trends clearly suggests that the weakness in consumption is more of an overall economic issue rather than a one-off weather related event.
After three straight months of negative retail sales data, it is not surprising to see a "bounce" in activity. The question going forward whether or not that bounce is sustainable?
Optimistically Optimistic
Mutual fund company Natixis recently conducted a survey of 750 investors that had over $200,000 in investable assets. (As discussed previously, it's hard to believe that these individuals are contained within the top 10% of the population)
"While investors may be looking for returns, they are 'extraordinarily optimistic about their investment prospects in both the short and long term,' says Natixis. Respondents say they need 10.1 percent return on their investments, and 81 percent of them feel their expectations are realistic.
Fifty-four percent expect their returns this year to be better than 2014.
Stocks will be the best-performing asset class this year, according to 45 percent of the respondents, followed by 17 percent who say cash will be the top performer."
While it has been repeatedly stated that individuals have "missed out" on surging asset prices, it has only been those with little or no money actually to invest with. However, for those that are invested, they are as optimistic as at every previous bull market peak in history. As shown in the chart below from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), individuals are at the highest levels of stock allocations, and lowest cash, since the financial crisis.
AAII-Allocations-041615
Let's do some rough math.
Historically, stock price appreciation has roughly equated to the growth in the economy plus inflation. That has been about 6% on average from 1900-2000. Throw in dividends, which averaged about 4% during that span, and you get to 10%.
Currently, economic growth is running at about 2%. Let's round up inflation to 2% and add dividends of 2%. That's a rough expectation of 6% going forward which will disappoint those expecting 10% annually.
Valuations are another problem. As discussed previously, from current levels of valuation in the markets forward expected returns are likely to fall to just 1-2% annualized. After dividends that is 3-4%.
The reality is that investors have NEVER achieved 10% annualized returns, even during the ripping bull market of the 90's. Over the next decade there will likely be another very nasty, mean reverting event, that will once again devastate investor capital, psychology, and long-term returns.
Why this lesson is never learned is beyond me.
What Is The Real Unemployment Rate?
Each month the Federal Reserve, the financial markets, and investors are glued to the release of the latest BLS employment report. (This is probably the single most overly analyzed and least important of all economic indicators.)
The current 5.5% unemployment has been widely touted as a "sure sign of economic recovery" and that the Fed's monetary policy interventions have clearly worked. However, is that really the case?
One of the issues that has been widely discussed is the shrinkage of the labor force which may be obfuscating the true level of unemployment in the country. With 1-in-4 individuals on some sort of government assistance and 93 million no longer counted, it is hard to suggest that 94.5% of the working age population is gainfully employed.
I have discussed many times previously the labor force participation rate of 16-54-year-olds, the ones that should be working, is lower today than it was at the peak of the financial crisis. Also, the number of individuals over the age of 65 that are still working, when they should be retiring, is at the highest levels on record. All of this suggests that something is not quite right with a 5.5% unemployment rate.
To this point, the chart below shows the difference between the current unemployment rate and the unemployment rate including all those "no longer counted" as part of the labor force. (Source: Research Affiliates)
Unemployment-Rate-WorkForce-Adj-041615
"In fact, most of the drop in the unemployment rate can be attributed to people leaving the workforce rather than job creation. A huge 'shadow inventory' of unemployed workers hangs over the labor market, unrecognized in the official numbers. An improving economy could encourage many non-participants to return to job-seeking status. If the labor participation ratio were to return to its 2008 level, today's unemployment rate would sit at 10.4%! This shadow inventory helps explain the tepid wage growth we have seen even as the job market becomes tighter, and it will likely continue to keep a lid on wage growth going forward."
It also explains why economic growth, and retail sales show above, has remained substantially weak since the end of the financial crisis.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
por Fenix » Jue Abr 16, 2015 5:21 pm
Emisiones de deuda en la zona euro
Jueves, 16 de Abril del 2015 - 12:25:00
Son datos del ECB, correspondientes a los dos primeros meses del año. La tasa de variación del saldo vivo de deuda se ha reducido un 0.9 % en febrero sobre un año antes. Por lo que respecta al saldo vivo de acciones cotizadas , se eleva en febrero un 1.4% anual. La emisión bruta de deuda fue en febrero de 538 bn. EUR, pero apenas 26bn. en términos netos.
Por sectores, la emisión de deuda por las empresas sube un 5 % en un año; las entidades financieras emiten un 8.1 % menos de deuda; crece un 2.2 % la emisión de deuda por las AAPP.
La emisión bruta de acciones cotizadas fue en febrero de apenas 2 bn. Y las amortizaciones fueron de 3.2 bn.
El saldo vivo de deuda es de 16.6 tr. Más de 15.3 tr. a medio y largo plazo. El saldo vivo de bolsa europea es de 5.8 tr.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
13:35 EUR/ZAR, oportunidad doble
Oportunidad de trading en EUR/ZAR con "carry trade" a nuestro favor.
Jueves, 16 de Abril del 2015 - 12:25:00
Son datos del ECB, correspondientes a los dos primeros meses del año. La tasa de variación del saldo vivo de deuda se ha reducido un 0.9 % en febrero sobre un año antes. Por lo que respecta al saldo vivo de acciones cotizadas , se eleva en febrero un 1.4% anual. La emisión bruta de deuda fue en febrero de 538 bn. EUR, pero apenas 26bn. en términos netos.
Por sectores, la emisión de deuda por las empresas sube un 5 % en un año; las entidades financieras emiten un 8.1 % menos de deuda; crece un 2.2 % la emisión de deuda por las AAPP.
La emisión bruta de acciones cotizadas fue en febrero de apenas 2 bn. Y las amortizaciones fueron de 3.2 bn.
El saldo vivo de deuda es de 16.6 tr. Más de 15.3 tr. a medio y largo plazo. El saldo vivo de bolsa europea es de 5.8 tr.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
13:35 EUR/ZAR, oportunidad doble
Oportunidad de trading en EUR/ZAR con "carry trade" a nuestro favor.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
por Fenix » Jue Abr 16, 2015 5:23 pm
¿Por qué la economía no tiene un efecto en las bolsas…o sí la tiene?
Carlos Montero
Jueves, 16 de Abril del 2015 - 13:45:00
Ayer publicábamos un artículo donde se señalaba que no se ha encontrado una correlación estadística entre el crecimiento económico (medido por el PIB), y la evolución de las rentabilidades en bolsa.
Mostrábamos como según un estudio de Cordant Wealth Partners, en los últimos cinco años los países con menor crecimiento económico registraron subidas promedio de sus mercados de valores del 12% al año, mientras que los de mayor crecimiento subieron únicamente un 6% anual. La conclusión anterior podría haber sorprendido a muchos inversores, que incluían en sus modelos operativos la evolución económica como una variable relevante.
¿Pero cuáles pueden ser las causas para esta aparente falta de influencia de la evolución económica en los mercados? El analista Isaac Presley proporciona algunas:
- La primera razón, y probablemente la más importante, es que los países con mayores tasas de crecimiento esperado tienden a estar caros. El optimismo anticipado sobre la economía tiende a subir los precios de las empresas por lo que reducen el rendimiento futuro.
“El objetivo fundamental de la inversión es comprar barato y vender caro. En los países de alto crecimiento los inversores se verían obligados a comprar caro y no lo hacen”, afirma Presley.
- La segunda razón es que el mercado de valores de un determinado país no es representativo de su economía. El mercado de acciones no incluye los negocios de propiedad privada o empresas extranjeras que operan en el país. Esto es especialmente cierto en los mercados en vía de desarrollo, ya que precisamente por estar menos desarrollados, menos porcentaje del PIB se refleja en las bolsas.
Yo daría otra razón:
- Las empresas más representativas de los selectivos bursátiles tienen el origen de gran parte de sus ingresos fuera del país natal. Las multinacionales de los principales mercados del mundo tienen tal diversidad en el origen de sus ventas que la circunstancia específica de un país determinado tiene un efecto limitado. Precisamente esa es la razón para dicha diversificación.
De cualquier forma me gustaría hacer una matización al estudio de Cordant Wealth. Según sus datos no existe una correlación directa entre crecimiento económico y evolución bursátil. Ahora bien, sí se ha demostrado una correlación entre las perspectivas de tipos de interés y el rendimiento de las acciones, y los tipos de interés se ven influenciados por la tasa de crecimiento económico y el efecto de ésta sobre la inflación.
Por otro lado, las fases de ciclo económico condicionan la evolución de los diferentes sectores bursátiles. Por ejemplo, en las primeras fases expansivas se comportan especialmente bien sectores como el de transporte, financiero y tecnológico. Esta fase de recuperación se caracteriza por reanimación de las actividades económicas, aumento de empleo, de producción, inversión y ventas. En esta fase el PIB crece de forma moderada.
La fase de auge se caracteriza por un periodo de apogeo económico con fuertes crecimientos del PIB. En esta fase se comportan mejor sectores como el de bienes de capital y productos básicos.
En resumen, aunque no haya una correlación directa entre crecimiento económico y evolución bursátil, sí la hay de forma indirecta tanto en la rentabilidad de la bolsa, como en la de aquellos sectores que la componen.
Lacartadelabolsa
Carlos Montero
Jueves, 16 de Abril del 2015 - 13:45:00
Ayer publicábamos un artículo donde se señalaba que no se ha encontrado una correlación estadística entre el crecimiento económico (medido por el PIB), y la evolución de las rentabilidades en bolsa.
Mostrábamos como según un estudio de Cordant Wealth Partners, en los últimos cinco años los países con menor crecimiento económico registraron subidas promedio de sus mercados de valores del 12% al año, mientras que los de mayor crecimiento subieron únicamente un 6% anual. La conclusión anterior podría haber sorprendido a muchos inversores, que incluían en sus modelos operativos la evolución económica como una variable relevante.
¿Pero cuáles pueden ser las causas para esta aparente falta de influencia de la evolución económica en los mercados? El analista Isaac Presley proporciona algunas:
- La primera razón, y probablemente la más importante, es que los países con mayores tasas de crecimiento esperado tienden a estar caros. El optimismo anticipado sobre la economía tiende a subir los precios de las empresas por lo que reducen el rendimiento futuro.
“El objetivo fundamental de la inversión es comprar barato y vender caro. En los países de alto crecimiento los inversores se verían obligados a comprar caro y no lo hacen”, afirma Presley.
- La segunda razón es que el mercado de valores de un determinado país no es representativo de su economía. El mercado de acciones no incluye los negocios de propiedad privada o empresas extranjeras que operan en el país. Esto es especialmente cierto en los mercados en vía de desarrollo, ya que precisamente por estar menos desarrollados, menos porcentaje del PIB se refleja en las bolsas.
Yo daría otra razón:
- Las empresas más representativas de los selectivos bursátiles tienen el origen de gran parte de sus ingresos fuera del país natal. Las multinacionales de los principales mercados del mundo tienen tal diversidad en el origen de sus ventas que la circunstancia específica de un país determinado tiene un efecto limitado. Precisamente esa es la razón para dicha diversificación.
De cualquier forma me gustaría hacer una matización al estudio de Cordant Wealth. Según sus datos no existe una correlación directa entre crecimiento económico y evolución bursátil. Ahora bien, sí se ha demostrado una correlación entre las perspectivas de tipos de interés y el rendimiento de las acciones, y los tipos de interés se ven influenciados por la tasa de crecimiento económico y el efecto de ésta sobre la inflación.
Por otro lado, las fases de ciclo económico condicionan la evolución de los diferentes sectores bursátiles. Por ejemplo, en las primeras fases expansivas se comportan especialmente bien sectores como el de transporte, financiero y tecnológico. Esta fase de recuperación se caracteriza por reanimación de las actividades económicas, aumento de empleo, de producción, inversión y ventas. En esta fase el PIB crece de forma moderada.
La fase de auge se caracteriza por un periodo de apogeo económico con fuertes crecimientos del PIB. En esta fase se comportan mejor sectores como el de bienes de capital y productos básicos.
En resumen, aunque no haya una correlación directa entre crecimiento económico y evolución bursátil, sí la hay de forma indirecta tanto en la rentabilidad de la bolsa, como en la de aquellos sectores que la componen.
Lacartadelabolsa
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
por Fenix » Jue Abr 16, 2015 5:23 pm
14:57 Bono EEUU junio. En rango de corto plazo
Por el momento no hemos visto ninguna pista direccional contundente. Las recientes sesiones nos han dejado un soporte en 128-18½ y resistencia en 130-04.
Resistencia 129-17 129-20½ 129-22½ 130-00 130-04
Soporte 129-13 129-08 129-02 128-18½ 128-05
14:32 Los inversores esperan rentabilidades de doble dígito en 2015
Según un estudio de Natixis Global Asset Management, la mayoría de los inversores creen que necesitan un rendimiento promedio anual de al menos un 10% para alcanzar sus objetivos financieras.
Wealth Management señala que el 81% de los encuestados creen que son posibles retornos de esta magnitud y "más de la mitad están dispuestos a asumir más riesgos en el 2015 para llegar a sus expectativas de rentabilidad".
"Los inversores estadounidenses se han acostumbrado a unos excelentes rendimientos bursátiles en los últimos años, por lo que su visión de los mercados financieros es notablemente positiva", dijo John Hailer, consejero delegado de Natixis para las América y Asia.
Según la encuesta, el 87% de los encuestados creen que hay valor en los servicios ofrecidos por los asesores financieros.
14:07 UnitedHealth: resistencia principal a corto plazo en 128.3
CMC Markets
Punto de rotación se sitúa en 113.3.
Preferencia: siempre que se mantenga el soporte en 113.3, pondremos las miras en 128.3.
Escenario alternativo: por debajo de 113.3, el riesgo es una caída hasta 109.2 y 106.9.
Técnicamente, el índice de fuerza relativa (RSI) se encuentra por encima de su zona de neutralidad de 50. El indicador de convergencia/divergencia de medias móviles (MACD) se sitúa por debajo de su línea de señal y es positivo.
Por el momento no hemos visto ninguna pista direccional contundente. Las recientes sesiones nos han dejado un soporte en 128-18½ y resistencia en 130-04.
Resistencia 129-17 129-20½ 129-22½ 130-00 130-04
Soporte 129-13 129-08 129-02 128-18½ 128-05
14:32 Los inversores esperan rentabilidades de doble dígito en 2015
Según un estudio de Natixis Global Asset Management, la mayoría de los inversores creen que necesitan un rendimiento promedio anual de al menos un 10% para alcanzar sus objetivos financieras.
Wealth Management señala que el 81% de los encuestados creen que son posibles retornos de esta magnitud y "más de la mitad están dispuestos a asumir más riesgos en el 2015 para llegar a sus expectativas de rentabilidad".
"Los inversores estadounidenses se han acostumbrado a unos excelentes rendimientos bursátiles en los últimos años, por lo que su visión de los mercados financieros es notablemente positiva", dijo John Hailer, consejero delegado de Natixis para las América y Asia.
Según la encuesta, el 87% de los encuestados creen que hay valor en los servicios ofrecidos por los asesores financieros.
14:07 UnitedHealth: resistencia principal a corto plazo en 128.3
CMC Markets
Punto de rotación se sitúa en 113.3.
Preferencia: siempre que se mantenga el soporte en 113.3, pondremos las miras en 128.3.
Escenario alternativo: por debajo de 113.3, el riesgo es una caída hasta 109.2 y 106.9.
Técnicamente, el índice de fuerza relativa (RSI) se encuentra por encima de su zona de neutralidad de 50. El indicador de convergencia/divergencia de medias móviles (MACD) se sitúa por debajo de su línea de señal y es positivo.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
por Fenix » Jue Abr 16, 2015 5:25 pm
5 Gráficos que muestran lo que está pasando en la economía mundial en este momento
Jueves, 16 de Abril del 2015 - 15:25:00
El Fondo Monetario Internacional ha publicado su último informe sobre la economía mundial. En el primero de sus dos informes anuales para 2015, el Fondo es cautelosamente optimista sobre las perspectivas globales.
Los riesgos para la recuperación, siete años después del inicio de la crisis financiera, "todavía están sesgados a la baja". Pero un cóctel de acontecimientos positivos, como la caída del precio del petróleo ayudará a las perspectivas económicas de medio plazo.
He aquí un desglose de lo que cree el FMI que va a pasar con el mundo este año, vía The Telegraph.
Un crecimiento moderado en lugar de un estancamiento
Se espera que el crecimiento mundial mejore ligeramente hasta el 3.5% en 2015 y luego subirá aún más en 2016 hasta el 3.7%. El repunte de la actividad de este año será impulsado por un sólido rendimiento en las economías avanzadas, apoyadas por el descenso de los precios del petróleo.
Los Estados Unidos es la estrella del crecimiento del mundo occidental, con el Reino Unido no muy detrás. Pero los mercados emergentes entrarán en su quinto año consecutivo de crecimiento lento, ya que las naciones productoras de petróleo se verán perjudicadas por la caída de los precios de las materias primas. Pero el Fondo predice que las condiciones económicas "normales" deberán regresar al mundo en desarrollo en 2016.
El crecimiento será moderado, no espectacular
Sin embargo el economista jefe del FMI, Olivier Blanchard, ha advertido de que la tasa de crecimiento potencial del mundo podría reducirse. Un envejecimiento de la población, la baja productividad y la caída de los niveles de inversión limitarán el crecimiento futuro, dice Blanchard.
"Sería un error hablar, como algunos lo han hecho, de estancamiento, pero las perspectivas se han moderado más", dijo.
El problema de Europa es la deflación
El riesgo de la eurozona es la persistente trampa deflacionaria que ha recortado las perspectivas del FMI desde octubre de 2014.
Pero, de todas las regiones del mundo, el bloque de la eurozona sigue siendo el más susceptible a la deflación. La probabilidad de deflación es ahora un poco menos de un tercio, a pesar del programa de compras de bonos por importe de 1,1 billones de euros del Banco Central Europeo.
Probabilidad de deflación 2016
En Japón hay noticias preocupantes, y tal vez un presagio para Europa, ya que el riesgo de deflación de la economía japonesa también ha aumentado más del doble, a poco más del 7%, según el Fondo. Japón ha estado luchando contra una baja inflación durante casi dos décadas y puso en marcha un programa de QE radical, que empequeñece a los esfuerzos de cualquier otro banco central importante.
El petróleo se ubica en una nueva normalidad
El precio del petróleo ha caído un 43% desde septiembre de 2014, y el Fondo está ahora pronosticando unos precios medios anuales en torno a 58,10 dólares por barril en 2015, 65,70 dólares en 2016, y 69,20 dólares en 2017.
Previsiones de precio del Brent a marzo 2017
Sin embargo, el Fondo es optimista de que un repunte de la actividad económica podría dar lugar a un crecimiento en la demanda de energía en los próximos años.
No espere que EE.UU. mantenga su producción
América puede haberse convertido en el nuevo productor de petróleo del mundo en 2014, pero la caída en picado de los precios está obstaculizando la inversión en la industria.
Una medida del apetito de inversión en los Estados Unidos es el número de plataformas petroleras en uso. Este ha caído significativamente desde septiembre de 2014.
Número de plataformas operativas
Tenemos que hablar de América Latina
Las naciones exportadoras de materias primas de América Latina se han visto especialmente afectadas en los últimos 12 meses. La probabilidad de una recesión en América del Sur es ahora la más alta de cualquier región del mundo, subiendo a más de un tercio en 2015 desde sólo el 15% del pronóstico de octubre.
Probabilidad de recesión 2015
Brasil, en particular, ha sufrido la caída de la confianza empresarial y del consumidor, señala el Fondo, que ahora espera que la mayor economía de América Latina se contraiga un 1% en 2015 - casi 2.5% por debajo de la previsión de octubre.
Fuentes: FMI y The Telegraph
Jueves, 16 de Abril del 2015 - 15:25:00
El Fondo Monetario Internacional ha publicado su último informe sobre la economía mundial. En el primero de sus dos informes anuales para 2015, el Fondo es cautelosamente optimista sobre las perspectivas globales.
Los riesgos para la recuperación, siete años después del inicio de la crisis financiera, "todavía están sesgados a la baja". Pero un cóctel de acontecimientos positivos, como la caída del precio del petróleo ayudará a las perspectivas económicas de medio plazo.
He aquí un desglose de lo que cree el FMI que va a pasar con el mundo este año, vía The Telegraph.
Un crecimiento moderado en lugar de un estancamiento
Se espera que el crecimiento mundial mejore ligeramente hasta el 3.5% en 2015 y luego subirá aún más en 2016 hasta el 3.7%. El repunte de la actividad de este año será impulsado por un sólido rendimiento en las economías avanzadas, apoyadas por el descenso de los precios del petróleo.
Los Estados Unidos es la estrella del crecimiento del mundo occidental, con el Reino Unido no muy detrás. Pero los mercados emergentes entrarán en su quinto año consecutivo de crecimiento lento, ya que las naciones productoras de petróleo se verán perjudicadas por la caída de los precios de las materias primas. Pero el Fondo predice que las condiciones económicas "normales" deberán regresar al mundo en desarrollo en 2016.
El crecimiento será moderado, no espectacular
Sin embargo el economista jefe del FMI, Olivier Blanchard, ha advertido de que la tasa de crecimiento potencial del mundo podría reducirse. Un envejecimiento de la población, la baja productividad y la caída de los niveles de inversión limitarán el crecimiento futuro, dice Blanchard.
"Sería un error hablar, como algunos lo han hecho, de estancamiento, pero las perspectivas se han moderado más", dijo.
El problema de Europa es la deflación
El riesgo de la eurozona es la persistente trampa deflacionaria que ha recortado las perspectivas del FMI desde octubre de 2014.
Pero, de todas las regiones del mundo, el bloque de la eurozona sigue siendo el más susceptible a la deflación. La probabilidad de deflación es ahora un poco menos de un tercio, a pesar del programa de compras de bonos por importe de 1,1 billones de euros del Banco Central Europeo.
Probabilidad de deflación 2016
En Japón hay noticias preocupantes, y tal vez un presagio para Europa, ya que el riesgo de deflación de la economía japonesa también ha aumentado más del doble, a poco más del 7%, según el Fondo. Japón ha estado luchando contra una baja inflación durante casi dos décadas y puso en marcha un programa de QE radical, que empequeñece a los esfuerzos de cualquier otro banco central importante.
El petróleo se ubica en una nueva normalidad
El precio del petróleo ha caído un 43% desde septiembre de 2014, y el Fondo está ahora pronosticando unos precios medios anuales en torno a 58,10 dólares por barril en 2015, 65,70 dólares en 2016, y 69,20 dólares en 2017.
Previsiones de precio del Brent a marzo 2017
Sin embargo, el Fondo es optimista de que un repunte de la actividad económica podría dar lugar a un crecimiento en la demanda de energía en los próximos años.
No espere que EE.UU. mantenga su producción
América puede haberse convertido en el nuevo productor de petróleo del mundo en 2014, pero la caída en picado de los precios está obstaculizando la inversión en la industria.
Una medida del apetito de inversión en los Estados Unidos es el número de plataformas petroleras en uso. Este ha caído significativamente desde septiembre de 2014.
Número de plataformas operativas
Tenemos que hablar de América Latina
Las naciones exportadoras de materias primas de América Latina se han visto especialmente afectadas en los últimos 12 meses. La probabilidad de una recesión en América del Sur es ahora la más alta de cualquier región del mundo, subiendo a más de un tercio en 2015 desde sólo el 15% del pronóstico de octubre.
Probabilidad de recesión 2015
Brasil, en particular, ha sufrido la caída de la confianza empresarial y del consumidor, señala el Fondo, que ahora espera que la mayor economía de América Latina se contraiga un 1% en 2015 - casi 2.5% por debajo de la previsión de octubre.
Fuentes: FMI y The Telegraph
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
por Fenix » Jue Abr 16, 2015 5:30 pm
¿Qué es lo que miran?
Jueves, 16 de Abril del 2015 - 15:52:00
No hablo de riesgos. Mejor, las variables que ahora han ocupado (y ocupan) su pensamiento como inversores. Van y vienen, alternándose como factores a considerar. Tras concretar lo anterior, ¿coincide este radar con estas variables?
La abultada liquidez actual y las perspectivas de que se amplie en el futuro (ECB y BOJ) sin duda son claves ahora para los inversores.
Naturalmente, sin poder olvidarnos de la Fed. Pero, en este caso en función de los datos que vayamos conociendo.
Por el momento, la inflación/desinflación/deflación ofrece margen para la calma. Y la calma es compradora.
¿Qué no pueden pasar de largo aunque lo intenten? China, los precios externos (crudo) y especialmente Grecia. Y seguro que lo intentan con ahinco. Pero, es obvio que aunque no ocupen de forma estable el primer plano no podemos pasar de valorarlos.
Y naturalmente hay otros factores que ya han pasado a segundo plano. Por el momento. Me refiero a la geopolítica, a los flujos de capital internacioanles y a los propios excesos de los mercados a los que podemos identificar con la volatilidad.
Nos decía el FMI que espera una mejora del crecimiento mundial para el próximo año, por encima del promedio histórico…..pero lo cierto es que lo que hemos vivido en los últimos meses es una continua revisión a la baja en nuestras previsiones de crecimiento.
¿Se han olvidado? Estoy convencido de que han utilizado en algún momento del pasado reciente cualquiera de estos términos…
· Estancamiento secular
· Desaceleración mundial, desequilibrado
· Riesgo social
· Persistente baja inflación mundial
· Incertidumbre y retos para las economías emergentes
· Nueva Mediocridad
Un Mundo, el actual, muy complicado….
Un último gráfico….estoy convencido de que no les es nuevo…
¿Riesgo político o sólo incertidumbre? Seguiremos hablando sobre todo esto en el futuro próximo, me temo.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
Jueves, 16 de Abril del 2015 - 15:52:00
No hablo de riesgos. Mejor, las variables que ahora han ocupado (y ocupan) su pensamiento como inversores. Van y vienen, alternándose como factores a considerar. Tras concretar lo anterior, ¿coincide este radar con estas variables?
La abultada liquidez actual y las perspectivas de que se amplie en el futuro (ECB y BOJ) sin duda son claves ahora para los inversores.
Naturalmente, sin poder olvidarnos de la Fed. Pero, en este caso en función de los datos que vayamos conociendo.
Por el momento, la inflación/desinflación/deflación ofrece margen para la calma. Y la calma es compradora.
¿Qué no pueden pasar de largo aunque lo intenten? China, los precios externos (crudo) y especialmente Grecia. Y seguro que lo intentan con ahinco. Pero, es obvio que aunque no ocupen de forma estable el primer plano no podemos pasar de valorarlos.
Y naturalmente hay otros factores que ya han pasado a segundo plano. Por el momento. Me refiero a la geopolítica, a los flujos de capital internacioanles y a los propios excesos de los mercados a los que podemos identificar con la volatilidad.
Nos decía el FMI que espera una mejora del crecimiento mundial para el próximo año, por encima del promedio histórico…..pero lo cierto es que lo que hemos vivido en los últimos meses es una continua revisión a la baja en nuestras previsiones de crecimiento.
¿Se han olvidado? Estoy convencido de que han utilizado en algún momento del pasado reciente cualquiera de estos términos…
· Estancamiento secular
· Desaceleración mundial, desequilibrado
· Riesgo social
· Persistente baja inflación mundial
· Incertidumbre y retos para las economías emergentes
· Nueva Mediocridad
Un Mundo, el actual, muy complicado….
Un último gráfico….estoy convencido de que no les es nuevo…
¿Riesgo político o sólo incertidumbre? Seguiremos hablando sobre todo esto en el futuro próximo, me temo.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
por Fenix » Jue Abr 16, 2015 5:32 pm
If QE Is So Great, Why Stop Printing Now?
04/16/2015 16:55
Submitted by Dominique Dassault
Why Stop Printing Money Now?
Chair Yellen frequently reminds us how effective and innovative QE is as a monetary policy tool. She even referred to the monetary actions, of her former boss, as heroic at a commencement speech this past spring. Literally…QE has saved the financial world. We must thank Mr. Bernanke and Ms. Yellen for being so Ivy League and Beltway intelligent.
And, also, how generous of them to share this amazing gift of theirs with our friends in the developed world [UK, Japan, and the EU, from what I understand, is now beta testing the program]. This magical elixir is sure to cure any and all global economic ills.
Come to think of it why don’t we erect two massive monuments of the both of them? They can be built right in the middle of America for everyone to see. And since Ms. Yellen seems to be so diminutive we can build both of them really big…each one 500 stories tall to match their massive intellects. The project will surely create hundreds of jobs and the payroll can be “covered” by a “one time” ceremonious QE4.
But what I’m really curious and concerned about is the following:
Ms.Yellen…oh worshipful economic guru… Why are you stopping QE right now?
There is so much more to be done. For example, why doesn’t The Fed buy and retire ALL of the national debt? Then the government would be in a really keen financial position. The true envy of the world.
Why are we, the citizens of this great country, no longer worthy of the almighty, far ranging and omnipotent QE?
* We’ve done what you’ve asked of us.
* We’ve bought stocks…like you desired.
* We’ve bought bonds too…as suggested.
* We’ve bought houses/condos…like you told us to.
* We’ve bought new cars…like you said we should.
* And we’ve borrowed a whole lot of money in order to finance these transactions.
Isn’t that what we are supposed to do? You see, it seems, having debt does not really matter anymore because you’ve been so kind to keep interest rates artificially low. Of course you’ve maintained low rates, on our behalf, because you are so wise and wonderful. And we know that with this powerful machine you have…I believe it is called a PRINTING PRESS…you can solve any economic problem. So, to reiterate, why are you stopping QE? You must be kidding…Right? I’ve become so accustomed to it. Sort of like my 2 glasses of wine every night while watching my recorded versions of “The View”.
I’ve even noticed that you’ve been buying a lot of debt issued by our awesome US Treasury…6 years running. How nice of you to immediately return the coupon payments paid by the US Treasury right back to the US Treasury. It makes me wonder why these bonds were ever even issued but I guess it makes sense because you really did not work for that money [in order to buy those bonds] in the first place [unlike everyone else]….but I won’t tell anyone. Someone also told me that when you return the money to the US Treasury it actually lowers the “implied” interest rate ultimately paid by the US Treasury. I really do not know what “implied interest” means but it sounds really good. And it must be great if you’ve decided that it is the right thing to do because you are so smart.
It has also been suggested to me that the Federal Reserve may also own my mortgage. That is so cool. Could you use that amazing machine of yours and send me some money to pay it off? Or maybe there is just a giant shredding machine at the Federal Reserve too? How about slipping my mortgage through the teeth of that thing and I’ll be in a much better financial position?
While you are at it I also have a “boatload” of a balance on my VISA bill. Could you please print some money for this bill too? And, sorry to say, both of my kids owe 6 figures on their student loans. It would sure be helpful if you could load some more paper into the tray of that “printing press” for me. BTW…I have some extra green paint from our home remodel that I could forward to you…for…you know…to color the paper. I’ll accept your thanks, for my modest gesture, in advance.
I know that you will take care of these tasks for me because you are so nice and so smart and so sympathetic. I saw you on television this past year trying to help a couple of ex-con felons get some work. Hey…they really don’t get much better than you Ms.Yellen. And “hob-nobbing” with the common folk? If I did not know better I’d say you were a politician. A really good one.
Anyway, the other day my brother in-law suggested to me that all of this money printing could lead to something called a MORAL HAZARD. I don’t know what that means either but it didn’t sound very good. He is usually so cynical anyway. I just ignored him.
So, Ms. Yellen, don’t you stop this money printing anytime soon. Just erase that thought from your mind just like you can simply erase away all my financial worries with that great machine of yours. We, the ignorant public, are so relying on you. As we see it there is just no downside to any of this money printing.
04/16/2015 16:55
Submitted by Dominique Dassault
Why Stop Printing Money Now?
Chair Yellen frequently reminds us how effective and innovative QE is as a monetary policy tool. She even referred to the monetary actions, of her former boss, as heroic at a commencement speech this past spring. Literally…QE has saved the financial world. We must thank Mr. Bernanke and Ms. Yellen for being so Ivy League and Beltway intelligent.
And, also, how generous of them to share this amazing gift of theirs with our friends in the developed world [UK, Japan, and the EU, from what I understand, is now beta testing the program]. This magical elixir is sure to cure any and all global economic ills.
Come to think of it why don’t we erect two massive monuments of the both of them? They can be built right in the middle of America for everyone to see. And since Ms. Yellen seems to be so diminutive we can build both of them really big…each one 500 stories tall to match their massive intellects. The project will surely create hundreds of jobs and the payroll can be “covered” by a “one time” ceremonious QE4.
But what I’m really curious and concerned about is the following:
Ms.Yellen…oh worshipful economic guru… Why are you stopping QE right now?
There is so much more to be done. For example, why doesn’t The Fed buy and retire ALL of the national debt? Then the government would be in a really keen financial position. The true envy of the world.
Why are we, the citizens of this great country, no longer worthy of the almighty, far ranging and omnipotent QE?
* We’ve done what you’ve asked of us.
* We’ve bought stocks…like you desired.
* We’ve bought bonds too…as suggested.
* We’ve bought houses/condos…like you told us to.
* We’ve bought new cars…like you said we should.
* And we’ve borrowed a whole lot of money in order to finance these transactions.
Isn’t that what we are supposed to do? You see, it seems, having debt does not really matter anymore because you’ve been so kind to keep interest rates artificially low. Of course you’ve maintained low rates, on our behalf, because you are so wise and wonderful. And we know that with this powerful machine you have…I believe it is called a PRINTING PRESS…you can solve any economic problem. So, to reiterate, why are you stopping QE? You must be kidding…Right? I’ve become so accustomed to it. Sort of like my 2 glasses of wine every night while watching my recorded versions of “The View”.
I’ve even noticed that you’ve been buying a lot of debt issued by our awesome US Treasury…6 years running. How nice of you to immediately return the coupon payments paid by the US Treasury right back to the US Treasury. It makes me wonder why these bonds were ever even issued but I guess it makes sense because you really did not work for that money [in order to buy those bonds] in the first place [unlike everyone else]….but I won’t tell anyone. Someone also told me that when you return the money to the US Treasury it actually lowers the “implied” interest rate ultimately paid by the US Treasury. I really do not know what “implied interest” means but it sounds really good. And it must be great if you’ve decided that it is the right thing to do because you are so smart.
It has also been suggested to me that the Federal Reserve may also own my mortgage. That is so cool. Could you use that amazing machine of yours and send me some money to pay it off? Or maybe there is just a giant shredding machine at the Federal Reserve too? How about slipping my mortgage through the teeth of that thing and I’ll be in a much better financial position?
While you are at it I also have a “boatload” of a balance on my VISA bill. Could you please print some money for this bill too? And, sorry to say, both of my kids owe 6 figures on their student loans. It would sure be helpful if you could load some more paper into the tray of that “printing press” for me. BTW…I have some extra green paint from our home remodel that I could forward to you…for…you know…to color the paper. I’ll accept your thanks, for my modest gesture, in advance.
I know that you will take care of these tasks for me because you are so nice and so smart and so sympathetic. I saw you on television this past year trying to help a couple of ex-con felons get some work. Hey…they really don’t get much better than you Ms.Yellen. And “hob-nobbing” with the common folk? If I did not know better I’d say you were a politician. A really good one.
Anyway, the other day my brother in-law suggested to me that all of this money printing could lead to something called a MORAL HAZARD. I don’t know what that means either but it didn’t sound very good. He is usually so cynical anyway. I just ignored him.
So, Ms. Yellen, don’t you stop this money printing anytime soon. Just erase that thought from your mind just like you can simply erase away all my financial worries with that great machine of yours. We, the ignorant public, are so relying on you. As we see it there is just no downside to any of this money printing.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
por Fenix » Jue Abr 16, 2015 5:45 pm
Citigroup's Gold "Expert" Demands A Cash Ban
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/16/2015 14:09
Late last year, Grexit "expert" Willem Buiter decided that he was a greater expert on the topic of monetary metals than on geopolitics by stating that "Gold Is A 6,000 Year Old Bubble." Now, he has decided that after gold, it is best to just do away with any physical currency altogether and the time to ban cash has arrived.
Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man blog,
Citigroup’s Chief Economist Joins the Cash Ban Bandwagon
We have discussed the views of Citigroup’s chief economist Willem Buiter previously in these pages (see “A Dose of Buiternomics” for details), on occasion of his coming out as a supporter of assorted monetary cranks, such as Silvio Gesell, to name one. Not to put too fine a point to it, Buiter is a monetary crank too.
Buiter is always shilling for more central bank intervention, and it seems no plan can ever be too silly or too extreme for him. In fact, he seems to have made the propagation of utterly crazy ideas his trademark.
Buiter has now joined one of his famous colleagues, Kenneth Rogoff, another intellectual enamored with central planning, in clamoring for a cash ban (for our discussion of Rogoff, see “Meet Kenneth Rogoff, Unreconstructed Statist”). Both Buiter and Rogoff want to make it impossible for citizens to escape the latest depredations of central bankers, such as the imposition of negative interest rates. This is to be done by forcing them to keep their money in accounts at fractionally reserved banks.
web1_WSOP-FINAL-TABLE_111114DB_020_6
If Buiter gets his way, there won’t be a WSOP final table with piles of cash anymore.
Photo credit: David Becker / Las Vegas Review-Journal
As Bloomberg reports:
“The world’s central banks have a problem. When economic conditions worsen, they react by reducing interest rates in order to stimulate the economy. But, as has happened across the world in recent years, there comes a point where those central banks run out of room to cut — they can bring interest rates to zero, but reducing them further below that is fraught with problems, the biggest of which is cash in the economy.
In a new piece, Citi’s Willem Buiter looks at this problem, which is known as the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Fundamentally, the ELB problem comes down to cash. According to Buiter, the ELB only exists at all due to the existence of cash, which is a bearer instrument that pays zero nominal rates. Why have your money on deposit at a negative rate that reduces your wealth when you can have it in cash and suffer no reduction? Cash therefore gives people an easy and effective way of avoiding negative nominal rates. Buiter’s note suggests three ways to address this problem:
1. Abolish currency.
2. Tax currency.
3. Remove the fixed exchange rate between currency and central bank reserves/deposits.
Yes, Buiter’s solution to cash’s ability to allow people to avoid negative deposit rates is to abolish cash altogether. (Note that he’s far from being the first to float this idea. Ken Rogoff has given his endorsement to the idea as well, as have others.)
Before looking at the practicalities of abolishing currency, we should first look at whether it could ever be necessary. Due to the costs of holding large amounts of cash, Buiter puts the actual nominal rate at which the move to cash makes sense as closer to -100bp. So, in order for a cash abolition to become necessary, central banks would need to be in a position where they wished to set nominal rates much lower than that.
Buiter does not have to go far to find an example of where a central bank may have wanted to set interest rates much lower to -100bp. He uses (a fairly aggressive) Taylor Rule to show that Federal Reserve rates should have been as low as -6 percent during the financial crisis.”
(emphasis added)
As mentioned above, no meddling by a central bank is ever too extreme or too crazy for Mr. Buiter. Here is his ridiculous “Taylor rule” chart (the conclusions of which by the way would be vehemently disputed by none other than Mr. Taylor himself).
Ridiculous Buiter chart
Buiter’s ridiculous chart asserting that a “negative interest rate of 6% would have been needed” in 2008-2010, via Citigroup, Bloomberg.
This nice gentlemen who wants to either “abolish cash” or “tax currency” for the good of us all, is a typical example of the modern-day viciously statist intellectual (h/t, Hans-Hermann Hoppe), who constantly pines for the authorities to implement social engineering on a grand scale. As long as they implement his plan, everything will be great.
Not Bothered by Concerns
Bloomberg tells us that “Buiter is aware that his idea may a bit controversial”. What a relief. He even lists the disadvantages of abolishing cash, only to dismiss them out of hand. With the exception of one crucial point, he is mainly erecting straw men.
“Buiter is aware that his idea may be somewhat controversial, so he goes to the effort of listing the disadvantages of abolishing cash.
1. Abolishing currency will constitute a noticeable change in many people’s lives and change often tends to be resisted.
2. Currency use remains high among the poor and some older people. (Buiter suggests that keeping low-denomination cash in circulation — nothing larger than $5 — might solve this.)
3. Central banks and governments would lose seigniorage revenue.
4. Abolishing currency would inevitably be associated with a loss of privacy and create risks of excessive intrusion by the government.
5. Switching exclusively to electronic payments may create new security and operational risks.
Buiter dismisses each of these concerns in turn, finishing with: In summary, we therefore conclude that the arguments against abolishing currency seem rather weak.
Whatever the strength of the arguments, the chances of an administration taking the decision to abolish cash seem vanishingly small.
We are surprised by the optimism expressed by Bloomberg that “the chances of an administration taking the decision to abolish cash seem vanishingly small”. We believe that governments all over the so-called “free world” are working feverishly to make a ban of cash currency a reality.
Naturally, we couldn’t care less about the “seignorage” revenue of the State. In our opinion central banks shouldn’t even exist, and “seignorage” is nothing but a euphemism for outright theft. It’s a nice touch that Buiter also doesn’t want to “throw seniors under the bus” and gives a brief thought to the poor as well. Why would any of them ever need anything more than a $5 note?
That someone like Buiter doesn’t find it difficult to dismiss the concern that “abolishing currency would inevitably be associated with a loss of privacy and create risks of excessive intrusion by the government” is no surprise, but it is indeed a legitimate concern. Under the cover of the “war on drugs” and lately the even bigger government-sponsored racket known as the “war on terror”, financial privacy has been all but eradicated already.
Buiter
Willem Buiter, shill for statism and central planning, here seen at the Council for Foreign Relations. Did we mention that we believe he’s an atrocious economist?
Photo credit: Bloomberg
Needless to say, we dispute the idea that central banks should ever impose negative interest rates. This policy is revolting economic nonsense that greatly harms the economy. As we have previously pointed out, given that the natural rate of interest can never be zero or negative, it is an inescapable conclusion that any imposition of negative market rates will end up destroying scarce capital and leave society poorer.
Lastly, Buiter fails to list one counterargument that we believe is extremely important. Since he works for a charter member of the world’s most powerful banking cartel, this is no big surprise either. We will make up for his oversight.
The 2008 crisis has not shown that anyone needs “negative interest rates” as Buiter erroneously claims. It has mainly shown how rickety and de facto insolvent the fractionally reserved banking system really is. If not for the introduction of an accounting trick (under immense political pressure, the FASB allowed the banks to dispense with mark-to-market accounting, which suddenly made them “whole” again), a huge taxpayer bailout and money printing by the central bank on an unprecedented scale (in the post WW2 era), several of the biggest banks would have gone the way of Lehman.
It was a good reminder that although fiduciary media – deposit money that is not backed by standard money – are part of the money supply in the broader sense, their main characteristic is that they exist only in the form of accounting entries. Hence, fractionally reserved banks are at all times insolvent, since they cannot possibly pay all demand deposits on demand. This obvious violation of what once used to be a bailment contract has been sanctioned by the courts in the 19th century under the influence of banking interests. If one considers how deposit money is multiplied under this system, it should be obvious that the scheme is fundamentally fraudulent. It goes against the grain of legal traditions that have been well-established in Western culture since antiquity.
If cash were to be banned, people could no longer opt out from this system. Bank runs would no longer be possible at all. While a bank run these days only gives one government scrip that is itself an irredeemable liability of a central bank, it is at least slightly more “real” than the accounting entry known as deposit money. Most importantly, cash can insure one against a bank going under, or the breakdown of the entire banking system, which is always a potential danger. Banks would obviously love a cash ban – quite possibly they are the only ones who would love it even more than governments.
1212cash
Conclusion
We keep being bombarded by moves to restrict the use of cash and demands to ban it altogether. These demands seem to mainly revolve around two arguments: one is that “only criminals need cash”, which is on a par with the absurd assertion that we should all be fine with Stasi-like ubiquitous government surveillance “if we have nothing to hide”. The other one is that a cash ban would make life easier for the central planners who are actively undermining the economy with their policy of debasement. We would argue that central banking and fiat money have done more than enough harm already and that the eradication of financial privacy has gone way too far. Money and banking should be freed from the clutches of government-directed monopolization and cartelization and should be returned to the free market.
Addendum:
One of our readers has sent us a few links concerning recent examples of the war on cash waged by governments the world over, which we reproduce below. Indeed, there is little cause for optimism on this score. Given this increase in attempts to restrict the use of cash, the danger that possession of gold will one day be declared illegal again can no longer be so easily dismissed either.
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/16/2015 14:09
Late last year, Grexit "expert" Willem Buiter decided that he was a greater expert on the topic of monetary metals than on geopolitics by stating that "Gold Is A 6,000 Year Old Bubble." Now, he has decided that after gold, it is best to just do away with any physical currency altogether and the time to ban cash has arrived.
Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man blog,
Citigroup’s Chief Economist Joins the Cash Ban Bandwagon
We have discussed the views of Citigroup’s chief economist Willem Buiter previously in these pages (see “A Dose of Buiternomics” for details), on occasion of his coming out as a supporter of assorted monetary cranks, such as Silvio Gesell, to name one. Not to put too fine a point to it, Buiter is a monetary crank too.
Buiter is always shilling for more central bank intervention, and it seems no plan can ever be too silly or too extreme for him. In fact, he seems to have made the propagation of utterly crazy ideas his trademark.
Buiter has now joined one of his famous colleagues, Kenneth Rogoff, another intellectual enamored with central planning, in clamoring for a cash ban (for our discussion of Rogoff, see “Meet Kenneth Rogoff, Unreconstructed Statist”). Both Buiter and Rogoff want to make it impossible for citizens to escape the latest depredations of central bankers, such as the imposition of negative interest rates. This is to be done by forcing them to keep their money in accounts at fractionally reserved banks.
web1_WSOP-FINAL-TABLE_111114DB_020_6
If Buiter gets his way, there won’t be a WSOP final table with piles of cash anymore.
Photo credit: David Becker / Las Vegas Review-Journal
As Bloomberg reports:
“The world’s central banks have a problem. When economic conditions worsen, they react by reducing interest rates in order to stimulate the economy. But, as has happened across the world in recent years, there comes a point where those central banks run out of room to cut — they can bring interest rates to zero, but reducing them further below that is fraught with problems, the biggest of which is cash in the economy.
In a new piece, Citi’s Willem Buiter looks at this problem, which is known as the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Fundamentally, the ELB problem comes down to cash. According to Buiter, the ELB only exists at all due to the existence of cash, which is a bearer instrument that pays zero nominal rates. Why have your money on deposit at a negative rate that reduces your wealth when you can have it in cash and suffer no reduction? Cash therefore gives people an easy and effective way of avoiding negative nominal rates. Buiter’s note suggests three ways to address this problem:
1. Abolish currency.
2. Tax currency.
3. Remove the fixed exchange rate between currency and central bank reserves/deposits.
Yes, Buiter’s solution to cash’s ability to allow people to avoid negative deposit rates is to abolish cash altogether. (Note that he’s far from being the first to float this idea. Ken Rogoff has given his endorsement to the idea as well, as have others.)
Before looking at the practicalities of abolishing currency, we should first look at whether it could ever be necessary. Due to the costs of holding large amounts of cash, Buiter puts the actual nominal rate at which the move to cash makes sense as closer to -100bp. So, in order for a cash abolition to become necessary, central banks would need to be in a position where they wished to set nominal rates much lower than that.
Buiter does not have to go far to find an example of where a central bank may have wanted to set interest rates much lower to -100bp. He uses (a fairly aggressive) Taylor Rule to show that Federal Reserve rates should have been as low as -6 percent during the financial crisis.”
(emphasis added)
As mentioned above, no meddling by a central bank is ever too extreme or too crazy for Mr. Buiter. Here is his ridiculous “Taylor rule” chart (the conclusions of which by the way would be vehemently disputed by none other than Mr. Taylor himself).
Ridiculous Buiter chart
Buiter’s ridiculous chart asserting that a “negative interest rate of 6% would have been needed” in 2008-2010, via Citigroup, Bloomberg.
This nice gentlemen who wants to either “abolish cash” or “tax currency” for the good of us all, is a typical example of the modern-day viciously statist intellectual (h/t, Hans-Hermann Hoppe), who constantly pines for the authorities to implement social engineering on a grand scale. As long as they implement his plan, everything will be great.
Not Bothered by Concerns
Bloomberg tells us that “Buiter is aware that his idea may a bit controversial”. What a relief. He even lists the disadvantages of abolishing cash, only to dismiss them out of hand. With the exception of one crucial point, he is mainly erecting straw men.
“Buiter is aware that his idea may be somewhat controversial, so he goes to the effort of listing the disadvantages of abolishing cash.
1. Abolishing currency will constitute a noticeable change in many people’s lives and change often tends to be resisted.
2. Currency use remains high among the poor and some older people. (Buiter suggests that keeping low-denomination cash in circulation — nothing larger than $5 — might solve this.)
3. Central banks and governments would lose seigniorage revenue.
4. Abolishing currency would inevitably be associated with a loss of privacy and create risks of excessive intrusion by the government.
5. Switching exclusively to electronic payments may create new security and operational risks.
Buiter dismisses each of these concerns in turn, finishing with: In summary, we therefore conclude that the arguments against abolishing currency seem rather weak.
Whatever the strength of the arguments, the chances of an administration taking the decision to abolish cash seem vanishingly small.
We are surprised by the optimism expressed by Bloomberg that “the chances of an administration taking the decision to abolish cash seem vanishingly small”. We believe that governments all over the so-called “free world” are working feverishly to make a ban of cash currency a reality.
Naturally, we couldn’t care less about the “seignorage” revenue of the State. In our opinion central banks shouldn’t even exist, and “seignorage” is nothing but a euphemism for outright theft. It’s a nice touch that Buiter also doesn’t want to “throw seniors under the bus” and gives a brief thought to the poor as well. Why would any of them ever need anything more than a $5 note?
That someone like Buiter doesn’t find it difficult to dismiss the concern that “abolishing currency would inevitably be associated with a loss of privacy and create risks of excessive intrusion by the government” is no surprise, but it is indeed a legitimate concern. Under the cover of the “war on drugs” and lately the even bigger government-sponsored racket known as the “war on terror”, financial privacy has been all but eradicated already.
Buiter
Willem Buiter, shill for statism and central planning, here seen at the Council for Foreign Relations. Did we mention that we believe he’s an atrocious economist?
Photo credit: Bloomberg
Needless to say, we dispute the idea that central banks should ever impose negative interest rates. This policy is revolting economic nonsense that greatly harms the economy. As we have previously pointed out, given that the natural rate of interest can never be zero or negative, it is an inescapable conclusion that any imposition of negative market rates will end up destroying scarce capital and leave society poorer.
Lastly, Buiter fails to list one counterargument that we believe is extremely important. Since he works for a charter member of the world’s most powerful banking cartel, this is no big surprise either. We will make up for his oversight.
The 2008 crisis has not shown that anyone needs “negative interest rates” as Buiter erroneously claims. It has mainly shown how rickety and de facto insolvent the fractionally reserved banking system really is. If not for the introduction of an accounting trick (under immense political pressure, the FASB allowed the banks to dispense with mark-to-market accounting, which suddenly made them “whole” again), a huge taxpayer bailout and money printing by the central bank on an unprecedented scale (in the post WW2 era), several of the biggest banks would have gone the way of Lehman.
It was a good reminder that although fiduciary media – deposit money that is not backed by standard money – are part of the money supply in the broader sense, their main characteristic is that they exist only in the form of accounting entries. Hence, fractionally reserved banks are at all times insolvent, since they cannot possibly pay all demand deposits on demand. This obvious violation of what once used to be a bailment contract has been sanctioned by the courts in the 19th century under the influence of banking interests. If one considers how deposit money is multiplied under this system, it should be obvious that the scheme is fundamentally fraudulent. It goes against the grain of legal traditions that have been well-established in Western culture since antiquity.
If cash were to be banned, people could no longer opt out from this system. Bank runs would no longer be possible at all. While a bank run these days only gives one government scrip that is itself an irredeemable liability of a central bank, it is at least slightly more “real” than the accounting entry known as deposit money. Most importantly, cash can insure one against a bank going under, or the breakdown of the entire banking system, which is always a potential danger. Banks would obviously love a cash ban – quite possibly they are the only ones who would love it even more than governments.
1212cash
Conclusion
We keep being bombarded by moves to restrict the use of cash and demands to ban it altogether. These demands seem to mainly revolve around two arguments: one is that “only criminals need cash”, which is on a par with the absurd assertion that we should all be fine with Stasi-like ubiquitous government surveillance “if we have nothing to hide”. The other one is that a cash ban would make life easier for the central planners who are actively undermining the economy with their policy of debasement. We would argue that central banking and fiat money have done more than enough harm already and that the eradication of financial privacy has gone way too far. Money and banking should be freed from the clutches of government-directed monopolization and cartelization and should be returned to the free market.
Addendum:
One of our readers has sent us a few links concerning recent examples of the war on cash waged by governments the world over, which we reproduce below. Indeed, there is little cause for optimism on this score. Given this increase in attempts to restrict the use of cash, the danger that possession of gold will one day be declared illegal again can no longer be so easily dismissed either.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 16/04/15 inicios de casas
por Fenix » Jue Abr 16, 2015 5:54 pm
Dollar Dump Sends Oil, Bonds & Stocks Surging
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/16/2015 - 13:55
The sudden decision to buy EUR and dump USDs (after a slew of Fed speakers spewed their usual spew) has sparked a buy everything trade across markets as bonds, stocks, and crude are surging...
Citadel Head Bond Trader (And TBAC Member) "Leaves" After Losing $1 Billion
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/16/2015 - 12:44
It is almost too coincidental to be a coincidence: on the day Ben Bernanke, who until a year ago was the biggest fixed income portfolio manager in the world courtesy of the Fed's $4.5 trillion in assets, joins Citadel as an advisor, the massively levered "market-neutral" hedge fund which as we showed earlier has $176 billion in regulatory assets, "loses" its global head of fixed income, senior managing director Derek Kaufman. Well not exactly loses. The reason for his "voluntary" departure: according to Bloomberg Kaufman is leaving Citadel not because he is about to be replaced by the former Fed chairman but because last year he lost $1 billion "in a variety of trades."
How Much Money Can You Really Save With A Smart Home?
04/16/2015 11:44 -
Submitted by Michael McDonald
It has become conventional wisdom that the wave of the future is “smart home” technology from smart utility meters that read a houses energy usage automatically to smart lights that turn off when not in use. The industry has been in development for years, but moved to the forefront of the start-up world when Google bought Nest Labs last year for more than $3B. Nest Labs makes a variety of smart home devices including thermostats and smoke alarms.
Smart home technology marries two of the most talked about trends in business right now – the internet of things and green technology. Given the excitement around these products then, it is little surprise that smart home devices from Nest and others have been able to command astronomical price tags in home improvement stores across the country.
How useful are smart home devices really though? A recent report by the British government suggests that the smart home revolution may be starting to hit some bumps in the road. The British government wanted to begin a national rollout of smart meters to all households across the UK this year. Smart meters are utility meters outside of a home that automatically read energy usage by a house and send that information wirelessly to the utility company. This avoids companies having to estimate bills for customers, cuts down on the costs of meter reading by utility company employees, and can provide consumers with useful information to save money by monitoring energy usage in real time. The most obvious application is in the area of electric meters, but gas meters and water meters also have potential as well.
As the British are discovering with smart meters, what sounds good on paper does not always work in reality. Problems that are cropping up include difficulty with people who are switching energy companies, labor shortages for the necessary 50 million plus installations of smart meters, and technology compatibility issues. The smart meters are going to cost UK consumers roughly $300 apiece spread out over several years. But the savings that come from smart home tech are far from assured.
Smart home equipment does not come cheap. Most smart home devices cost several hundred dollars bringing the cost of a complete home upgrade to thousands. Yet smart home companies cite an average saving up about 10% or roughly $100 per year for the average household. Even the least financially savvy consumers are likely to balk at the idea of spending $5,000 to upgrade their home with technology that will save them $100 a year for the life of that technology. Part of the selling point for this technology may be consumers wanting to help with climate change issues, but saving money alone is unlikely to drive the technology forward.
Perhaps the best evidence for how shaky the case is for smart home tech is not who is talking about it, but who is not talking about it. The US Department of Energy under the current administration has made repeated appeals to consumers to upgrade the energy efficiency of their home. But while solar panels, weatherization, and high efficiency appliances all get prominent mentions by the DOE, smart home technology is not a major talking point on that agency’s website.
Instead the DOE’s focus seems to be on the so-called “smart grid” which revolves around improving automation in the infrastructure that delivers energy to consumers. That implies that the government thinks this area is where the biggest savings and energy efficiency improvements can be achieved. Of course smart meters would fall into the smart grid category. And as the British are discovering, new technology does not always live up to the hype. And if the reality is disappointing for the most promising technologies like smart meters in the smart gird, then how likely are other smart technologies to live up to their own hype?
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/16/2015 - 13:55
The sudden decision to buy EUR and dump USDs (after a slew of Fed speakers spewed their usual spew) has sparked a buy everything trade across markets as bonds, stocks, and crude are surging...
Citadel Head Bond Trader (And TBAC Member) "Leaves" After Losing $1 Billion
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/16/2015 - 12:44
It is almost too coincidental to be a coincidence: on the day Ben Bernanke, who until a year ago was the biggest fixed income portfolio manager in the world courtesy of the Fed's $4.5 trillion in assets, joins Citadel as an advisor, the massively levered "market-neutral" hedge fund which as we showed earlier has $176 billion in regulatory assets, "loses" its global head of fixed income, senior managing director Derek Kaufman. Well not exactly loses. The reason for his "voluntary" departure: according to Bloomberg Kaufman is leaving Citadel not because he is about to be replaced by the former Fed chairman but because last year he lost $1 billion "in a variety of trades."
How Much Money Can You Really Save With A Smart Home?
04/16/2015 11:44 -
Submitted by Michael McDonald
It has become conventional wisdom that the wave of the future is “smart home” technology from smart utility meters that read a houses energy usage automatically to smart lights that turn off when not in use. The industry has been in development for years, but moved to the forefront of the start-up world when Google bought Nest Labs last year for more than $3B. Nest Labs makes a variety of smart home devices including thermostats and smoke alarms.
Smart home technology marries two of the most talked about trends in business right now – the internet of things and green technology. Given the excitement around these products then, it is little surprise that smart home devices from Nest and others have been able to command astronomical price tags in home improvement stores across the country.
How useful are smart home devices really though? A recent report by the British government suggests that the smart home revolution may be starting to hit some bumps in the road. The British government wanted to begin a national rollout of smart meters to all households across the UK this year. Smart meters are utility meters outside of a home that automatically read energy usage by a house and send that information wirelessly to the utility company. This avoids companies having to estimate bills for customers, cuts down on the costs of meter reading by utility company employees, and can provide consumers with useful information to save money by monitoring energy usage in real time. The most obvious application is in the area of electric meters, but gas meters and water meters also have potential as well.
As the British are discovering with smart meters, what sounds good on paper does not always work in reality. Problems that are cropping up include difficulty with people who are switching energy companies, labor shortages for the necessary 50 million plus installations of smart meters, and technology compatibility issues. The smart meters are going to cost UK consumers roughly $300 apiece spread out over several years. But the savings that come from smart home tech are far from assured.
Smart home equipment does not come cheap. Most smart home devices cost several hundred dollars bringing the cost of a complete home upgrade to thousands. Yet smart home companies cite an average saving up about 10% or roughly $100 per year for the average household. Even the least financially savvy consumers are likely to balk at the idea of spending $5,000 to upgrade their home with technology that will save them $100 a year for the life of that technology. Part of the selling point for this technology may be consumers wanting to help with climate change issues, but saving money alone is unlikely to drive the technology forward.
Perhaps the best evidence for how shaky the case is for smart home tech is not who is talking about it, but who is not talking about it. The US Department of Energy under the current administration has made repeated appeals to consumers to upgrade the energy efficiency of their home. But while solar panels, weatherization, and high efficiency appliances all get prominent mentions by the DOE, smart home technology is not a major talking point on that agency’s website.
Instead the DOE’s focus seems to be on the so-called “smart grid” which revolves around improving automation in the infrastructure that delivers energy to consumers. That implies that the government thinks this area is where the biggest savings and energy efficiency improvements can be achieved. Of course smart meters would fall into the smart grid category. And as the British are discovering, new technology does not always live up to the hype. And if the reality is disappointing for the most promising technologies like smart meters in the smart gird, then how likely are other smart technologies to live up to their own hype?
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
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