Lunes 11/05/15 China rebaja intereses

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Los distintos escenarios que se presentan tras la reunión del Eurogrupo

Lunes, 11 de Mayo del 2015 - 14:19:00

Posibles resultados en Grecia después de la reunión del Eurogrupo de hoy (vía UBS):

Escenario 1 (Positivo) - Si Grecia no cumple con sus obligaciones de deuda se espera que el país reciba fondos adicionales hasta la conclusión de su segundo programa de ayuda.

Escenario 2 (Negativo) - El segundo escenario es que Grecia pueda presentar reformas pero también sus reservas. Si este es el caso Grecia necesita indicar su intención de cooperar con la UE.

Escenario 3 (Negativo) - Si Grecia presenta reformas menores de lo esperado por la UE, Grecia podría incumplir sus pagos de deuda con la UE, el FMI y el BCE en las próximas semanas.


Escenario 4 (Negativo) - Grecia no realiza ningun movimiento y paga al personal del gobierno en pagarés, algo que iniciaría la implantación de una cuasi nueva moneda.

The Wall Street Journal escribe que el FMI está desarrollando planes de contingencia sobre Grecia ante un posible impago de su deuda, según un funcionario de alto nivel del fondo.



¿Qué va a pasar con las promesas hechas por Cameron?
Lunes, 11 de Mayo del 2015 - 14:28
En el Reino Unido, la victoria de los conservadores en las elecciones del pasado jueves abre la puerta incluso a un gobierno más estable de lo esperado (no se descarta incluso que el primer ministro Cameron decida gobernar en minoría).

Para los inversores, superada la alegría inicial, es hora de mirar qué va a pasar con algunas promesas hechas por Cameron durante la campaña. La primera, si habrá o no un referéndum sobre la pertenencia de R.Unido a la Unión Europea. El primer ministro Cameron mantiene la opinión de que dicha pertenencia es positiva, pero se ha comprometido a preguntar a los ciudadanos (fecha prevista: finales de 2017).

Además de las implicaciones para el conjunto de la UE de dicho referéndum, también podría haber implicaciones internas. El incremento del apoyo al partido nacionalista escocés (SNP) podría llevar a un resultado favorable a estar en la UE por parte de Escocia, y desfavorable en el resto de la Unión, incrementando las presiones divisionistas. Además, la victoria de los conservadores permitirá continuar con el ajuste fiscal establecido en los presupuestos en marzo, con una reducción del gasto público para los próximos años de hasta 45.000 mn.GBp de aquí a 2020.

En términos de política monetaria, no parece que el resultado electoral vaya a alterar los planes de subidas de tipos del Banco de Inglaterra (se espera la primera subida para inicios de 2016). En este sentido, este miércoles se conocerá el último informe de inflación de dicha entidad. Previamente, el lunes habrá reunión de política monetaria, que se ha retrasado por motivos electorales (debería haberse producido el jueves 7, el mismo día de las elecciones), en la que no se esperan sorpresas.

[Fenix]

Buenos resultados de Dean Foods Co.
Lunes, 11 de Mayo del 2015 - 14:56
La compañía estadounidense Dean Foods Co. ha publicado un beneficio ajustado de 24 centavos por acción frente a las pérdidas de 5 centavos de un año antes. La previsión de la propia compañía era de 12-22 centavos por acción, y los analistas de 17 centavos.

Contando extraordinarios reportó unas pérdidas de 73,7 millones de dólares frente 9 millones de un año antes.

Los ingresos cayeron un 12% a 2.050 millones de dólares frente 2.100 millones esperados por el consenso.

La compañía cotiza con fuertes subidas en preapertura.

Dinero, dinero y dinero
José Luis Martínez Campuzano de Citi
Lunes, 11 de Mayo del 2015 - 14:50
Durante la semana pasada más de 377 M. $ compraron fondos de renta fija. Pero hubo más de 17.1 bn. de salidas de fondos de bolsa. Y en este caso generalizados, con la excepción de Japón. Los fondos de bolsa USA vieron salidas de 16.1 bn. y los europeos de 1.5 bn. En este último caso es la primera salida de dinero en más de cuatro meses.

En el caso de los fondos de bolsa emergentes, más de 296 M. de salidas de dinero. Y es la tercera semana de devoluciones.

S&P 500 junio. Probando la resistencia de 2119
Lunes, 11 de Mayo del 2015 - 14:37
El movimiento alcista desde la parte alta de la "nube" podría seguir teniendo algo de recorrido. El cierre en máximos de la sesión y de la semana del viernes todavía está dentro del rango, pero muestra una demanda inherente, que apunta un ataque hacia 2119.

La próxima zona de resistencia/atracción se sitúa en la referencia 127,2% de Fibonacci en 2127 y después la línea de resistencia alcista ahora en 2147.

Resistencias 2112/14 2119/21 2127 2147 2170
Soportes 2107/02 2096 2091/85 2081 2057


La UE espera un acuerdo con Grecia antes de finales de junio
Jeroen Dijsselbloem
Lunes, 11 de Mayo del 2015 - 15:28
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, presidente del Eurogrupo, espera alcanzar un acuerdo con Grecia antes de finales de junio. Añade:

Espero ver los progresos del último plan griego, que deben entregar en las próximas semanas. Hay que estar preparado para reconvenir la situación si hay progresos.


Algo más que Grecia en la zona euro
Lunes, 11 de Mayo del 2015 - 15:38
Me ha llamado la atención la última comparecencia del Ministro de finanzas alemán. La mayoría de su discurso centrado sobre Grecia, pero pocas referencias sobre la propia Alemania. Y esta semana tendremos muchas referencias macro sobre Alemania, entre ellas el PIB y la inflación. Y también sobre otros países del área. Como un anticipo les diré que esperamos una desaceleración del crecimiento alemán durante el Q1, hasta un dato trimestral del 0.5 % frente al 0.7 % de finales del año pasado.

Entre tanto, les dejo algunos datos que hemos conocido de forma reciente del área….. Este primero es el porcentaje de empleo de personas entre los 20 a 64 años, alcanzando a finales del año pasado por primera vez el 69.2 % del total. Pero aún por debajo del 70.3 % de 2007.

Precisamente en Alemania la balanza comercial de marzo se ha saldado con un superávit de 19.3 bn. EUR desde los 19.7 bn. del mes anterior. Las exportaciones subieron en cifra mensual un 1.2 %, pero inferior al aumento del 2.4 % de las compras.

En Italia el Istat revisa al alza su previsión de crecimiento para este año hasta un 0.7 % desde el 0.5 % anterior. Y la producción industrial aumentó un 0.4 % mensual en marzo, el doble de lo esperado.

Para el conjunto del trimestre nuestra previsión de aumento del producto para la zona EUR es de 0.4 %, algo superior al 0.3 % anterior. El crecimiento anual podría ser entonces del 1.0 % desde el 0.9 % previo.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España


¿Cómo ha transcurrido la temporada de resultados en EE.UU.?
Lunes, 11 de Mayo del 2015 - 15:50
Con más del 90% de empresas del S&P 500 que ya han publicado sus resultados podemos afirmar que estos han superado ampliamente las estimaciones iniciales en cuanto a la parte baja, pero no tanto en cuanto a los ingresos.

En promedio estas empresas han superado en un 2,1% sus beneficios del mismo periodo del año anterior, aunque los ingresos han caído un 4,2%. Han superado en un 66% las estimaciones de beneficio y en un 44% las de ingresos. Mostramos en la tabla adjunta realizada por Zacks Reserach la evolución por sectores.


El precio del petróleo se mantendrá por debajo 100$ en la próxima década
Afirma la OPEP
Lunes, 11 de Mayo del 2015 - 16:50
La OPEP estima que el precio del petróleo se mantendrá por debajo de los 100 dólares en la próxima década, según publica el Wall Street Journal.

En el escenario más optimista el petróleo cotizará en los 76$ en 2025. En el más pesimista caerá por debajo de los 40 dólares.

[Fenix]

La Fed no debería advertir sobre una subida de tipos antes de tiempo
Lunes, 11 de Mayo del 2015 - 17:24 CET
John Williams, presidente de la Fed de San Francisco, ha declarado a la CNBC: "Mi preferencia personal es que no tengamos las decisiones de política (monetaria) más telegrafiadas en la historia. No quieres tomar una decisión con dos o tres meses de anticipación. La Fed querrá revisar datos hasta su reunión de política monetaria y tomar su decisión en esa oportunidad."


La recompra de acciones seguirá apoyando a la bolsa americana
Lunes, 11 de Mayo del 2015 - 18:00
En abril se autorizaron 141.000 millones de dólares en recompra de acciones de empresas estadounidenses, el mayor nivel alcanzado en la historia, y un 121% por encima de las cifras de abril de 2014.

Apple y GE anunciaron una recompra de 50.000 millones de dólares. En datos interanaules, 2015 es el año con más anuncios de recompra de títulos propios de la historia de Wall Street con un total de 398.000 millones de dólares.

La enorme liquidez de las empresas estadounidenses se está dirigiendo en gran parte a la recompra de acciones, lo que apoya las altas valoraciones de estas compañías.


"Grecia no impagará"

[ EURO LIBRA ]
Lunes, 11 de Mayo del 2015 - 19:30
Eurodólar (€/USD).- La semana pasada no hubo grandes variaciones en el cruce de divisas. De cara a los próximos días el euro debería apreciarse. La referencia más importante será la reunión del Eurogrupo y el vencimiento de 747M€ de Grecia con el FMI. En principio parece que habrá acuerdo, lo que tendrá un efecto de apreciación en el euro. Rango estimado (semana): 1,09/1,13.


Alguien debe asumir el papel de villano
Lunes, 11 de Mayo del 2015 - 19:45
¿Han representado alguna vez una obra de teatro? Yo sí, muchas veces.Cuando era pequeño quería ser siempre el protagonista, buscando en el aplauso (de mi familia....pero aplaudían con mucha fuerza) la validación de héroe o cercano al héroe. Sin embargo, el papel de villano no me gustaba. Realmente parecía un castigo que pocos asumían de buen grado.

Con la edad, por el contrario, he ido cogiendo cariño a estos villanos de teatro que sirven para que la historia tenga sentido. ¿Se imaginan una historia donde no haya villanos? Ciertamente muy sosa.

¿Quién puede asumir el role de villano en la Crisis griega? El FMI, pese a que está realmente discutiendo retirarse lo más ordenadamente posible del rescate, no es considerado como tal. Los acreedores oficiales, bueno aquí siempre hay un villano mencionado por las autoridades griegas. Yo si me excusan, prefiero no comentarlo. Y de hecho, realmente no creo que lo sea. Además, las autoridades griegas llevan meses buscando un villano oficial alternando este papel entre varios países. Corramos un tupido velo.

¿Y el ECB? ¿Podría serlo la Autoridad Monetaria Europea? Quizás salgamos de dudas esta misma semana. Aunque, en temas europeos con difícil solución, es complicado encontrar decisiones rápidas. Pero, siempre puede haber una primera vez.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano de Citi

[Fenix]

¿Es el Estado de Bienestar o el Bienestar del Estado?
por Carlos Moreno •Hace 7 horas

Desde niño he escuchado hablar del famoso estado de bienestar, de que el estado ayuda a aquellos más necesitados para que puedan tener acceso a la sanidad, a la educación y para que el día de mañana cuando nos jubilemos el señor estado nos pague unas pensiones dignas para que podamos vivir lo mejor posible cuando ya seamos ancianos. Nos han contado que si ganamos más, hemos de ser más solidarios y pagar más impuestos al Estado, para que éste redistribuya nuestra riqueza entre los más pobres, para que de esta manera vivamos en una sociedad más igualitaria donde todos tengamos una mejor sanidad pública, una mejor educación pública y que esta es la base para crear una sociedad más evolucionada, más igualitaria y más preparada, permitiendo que todos tengamos las mismas posibilidades el día de mañana.

Nos han hecho creer que el estado es el protector de nuestros intereses, que en todo momento busca lo mejor para nosotros, nos contaron la historia de Robin Hood y todos pensamos que aquello de quitar el dinero a los más ricos para dárselo a los más pobres era algo con un cierto romanticismo, ya que al rico le sobra el dinero y el pobre sin embargo lo necesita, nos dijeron que si subimos los impuestos el estado recaudaría más dinero de aquellos a los que les sobra el dinero y que de esa manera todo el mundo podría tener acceso a unos mejores servicios públicos.

Hasta aquí todo suena realmente bien, es un discurso solidario y muchos de nosotros crecimos pensando que era realmente cierto, pero la realidad que finalmente hemos podido corroborar es bien distinta y está a años luz de esa fantasía utópica que les acabo de contar en los párrafos anteriores. La creencia en el estado de bienestar ha sido sustituida por la del bienestar del estado, ya que tras haber destinado miles y miles de millones a gasto público, la deuda del estado ha crecido de tal manera que cada hijo que traemos al mundo trae bajo el brazo una herencia en forma de deuda superior a los veinte mil euros y al igual que en las empresas nuestro estado acumula pérdidas año tras año en forma de déficit presupuestario. ¿Conocen alguna empresa que no haya quebrado presentando cada año pérdidas e incrementando año tras año sus deudas? Sinceramente yo no la conozco.

Ayer escuché a Ángel Gabilondo, ex ministro de educación y candidato a Presidente de la Comunidad de Madrid, decir “lo público es más rentable, sostenible, eficiente y barato…” francamente no entiendo como una persona de su talla intelectual puede llegar a hacer semejante afirmación; no conozco ninguna empresa que se rija por los criterios de eficiencia y rentabilidad a los que el ex ministro hace referencia y que permanezca de manera recurrente año tras año acumulando unas deudas superiores y generando unas pérdidas que por cierto alcanzaron su pico máximo cuando él fue ministro de educación.

Si transferimos la situación que se ha dado en las finanzas de nuestro estado a la situación de cualquier empresa o economía familiar, veremos que una empresa o familia que esté endeudada hasta las cejas y que esté todos los años presentando pérdidas tendrá que moderar su gasto para cuadrar su situación presupuestaria. Ninguna familia que gaste más de lo que ingrese puede funcionar eternamente porque antes o después se le cortará el grifo del crédito y ninguna empresa en perdidas puede financiar su descuadre presupuestario eternamente con deuda ya que antes o después se le cortará la financiación, entonces ¿por qué pensamos que con las cuentas del estado va a ser diferente? Sólo existe una norma para cuadrar esta situación y es la moderación presupuestaria o la mal llamada austeridad económica.

Una austeridad económica que en Europa nos la han querido vender como un austericidio (haciendo un símil entre la austeridad económica y el genocidio alemán) y que no ha sido realmente más que un mito. La evolución del gasto, déficit y deuda pública muestra que la austeridad sólo ha sido una mayor moderación en el ritmo de gasto, que el gasto público ha seguido creciendo a un ritmo anual del 7% y que en Grecia pese a todos los recortes efectuados se gasta un 2% más que en 2007 antes del inicio de la crisis, eso sí, la renta disponible en manos de los ciudadanos euro ha descendido a niveles de hace más de diez años.

Si los políticos nos quieren sacar de la crisis, las soluciones no pasan por políticas económicas que vuelvan a incrementar un gasto público estratosférico, ni en dar un mayor peso a las políticas de intervencionismo del estado, ni en endeudarnos más, ni en seguir generando déficit… La solución pasa por incrementar la renta disponible de todos los españoles y empresas, para que se pueda incrementar el consumo y el empleo , siendo la solución la rebaja de impuestos tanto en Renta como en Sociedades, dando un marco adecuado para que la iniciativa privada que es la que crea un empleo eficiente a largo plazo se pueda desarrollar adecuadamente y reduciendo el peso excesivo del estado en la economía, un estado sobredimensionado e ineficiente que se debe reducir a su mínima expresión (sanidad, educación, pensiones…) como bien dicen todos los tratados de Teoría Económica y que en todos aquellos países donde se ha llevado a la práctica ha permitido un mayor desarrollo económico.


La Generación del Milenio vuelve al mercado laboral EEUU

Lunes, 11 de Mayo del 2015 - 20:31:00

Los Millennials han regresado al mercado laboral con fuerza. En su última nota de gráficos, el economista de Deutsche Bank Torsten Sløk señala que el porcentaje de la fuerza laboral ente 25 a 34 años de edad ha vuelto a los niveles observados antes de la crisis financiera.

Este segmento de trabajadores, que no sólo está compuesto por la generación del milenio - es el grupo más importante de la economía.

Las personas de 25 a 34 años de edad son los jóvenes padres de hoy, o los padres del mañana que están cerca de ser los principales consumidores de viviendas, coches, ropa para sus hijos, etc.


Esta es la parte más importante del motor económico. Y está regresando.

[Fenix]

Bono EEUU junio. Resistencias en 128-09/128-13
Lunes, 11 de Mayo del 2015 - 21:25 CET
El movimiento al alza desde el mínimo de la semana pasada ha dado algo de alivio, pero debería detenerse en el extremo inferior de la "nube" o a más tardar antes de los mínimos anteriores en 128-18½ y 128-22½.

Es necesario que el precio descienda por debajo de 127-07 para mostrar la vuelta de la iniciativa de los vendedores, también es necesaria la pérdida de 126-13½ y 125-29½.

Resistencias 128-07 128-18½ 128-21 128-22½ 129-18½
Soporte 127-24½ 127-07½ 126-30 126-13½ 125-29½


OPEC Forecasts Oil As Low As $40 For Next Decade
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 14:35

Whether it is more posturing ahead of OPEC's June meeting is unclear but the message from 'sources', according to The Wall Street Journal is "OPEC won’t agree to go lower," with regard global market share (which has fallen from more than 50-% to just 32% currently). The cartel's latest strategy report forecasts oil prices won't reach $100 - “$100 is not in any of the scenarios,” in the next decade (and could drop below $40) with its most optimistic scenario $76 in 2025 (which only Qatar and Kuwait can cover expenditures with). “If they want to sustain the organization, they have no choice,” but to reintroduce production quotas, adding any concession by stronger members would be temporary.


The Government's Career Suggestion For Massively Indebted College Grads: Become Farmers
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 18:00

The class of 2015 may be the most indebted class of college graduates in the history of US higher education and the economy may have flatlined in Q1, but that doesn't mean all hope is lost for anyone who didn't study to become a petroleum engineer because as the government will tell you, you can always be a farmer.

[Fenix]

Las acciones de Galicia frente a soportes importantes ¿reaccionara o continuara con el ajuste?
por Julian Yosovitch •Hace 4 horas

Las acciones de Galicia han accedido a importantes soportes ubicados en los 20 dólares junto al 50% de todo el avance en onda 3 y desde allí las subas hasta los valores actuales, cerrando el viernes en los 21.14 dólares.

Consideramos que los 20 dólares son el nivel de soporte clave de mediano plazo junto al 50% de todo el ultimo avance y máximo recorte para seguir especulando con un piso en onda 4 y por ello consideramos que las subas del viernes deberán extenderse colocando a GGAL por encima de 22.50 dólares primero y 23.50-24.00 dólares luego, quebrando resistencias intermedias y abriendo paso a nuevos avances de regreso a la zona de máximos previos de 25.50-26.00 dólares al menos.

Solo con un quiebre directo debajo de 20 dólares, el ajuste actual en onda 4 quedara anulado y la emisora quedara vulnerable a extender las perdidas rumbo a los 19.50-19.00 dólares e incluso rumbo a valores más deprimidos para adelante.

Who's Got The Gold?
05/11/2015 17:30 -0400

Submitted by Jeff Thomas via Doug Casey's International Man blog,

In 1971, the US abruptly went off the gold standard, and in making the public announcement, US President Richard Nixon looked into the television camera and said, “We’re all Keynesians now.”

I was a young man at the time and had previously bought gold, albeit on a very small scale, but I recall looking into the face of this delusional man and thinking, “This is not good.”

However, the world at large apparently agreed with Mister Nixon, and within a few years, the other countries also went off the gold standard, which meant that, from that point on, no currency was backed by anything other than a promise.
Party Time

It didn’t take long before countries began playing with their currencies. At one time, the German mark, the French franc, the Italian lire, and the British shilling had all been roughly equivalent in value, and four or five of any one of them was worth about a dollar.

That had already begun to change prior to 1971, but following the decoupling from gold, the governments of the world really began to see the advantages of manipulating their own currencies against the currencies of other nations.

From that point on, a currency note from any country, which was already no more than an “I owe you,” was increasingly degraded to an “I owe you an undetermined and fluctuating amount.”

This fixation with monetary manipulation began much like the 1960s youths’ experimentation with drugs, and by the millennium, had morphed into something more akin to heroin addiction. Unfortunately, those who had become the addicts were the national leaders in finance and politics.

Well, here we are, in the second decade of the millennium. The party has deteriorated and is soon to come to a bad end.

As we get closer, those of us who have, for many years, predicted an eventual realisation that Mister Keynes and Mister Nixon were dead wrong and that the world will once again look to gold are, at this late date, gaining a bit of traction.

We’re seeing an increase in the number of people who recognise that all fiat currencies eventually come to an end and gold will continue to shine.

But there are two remaining questions that have even the best of prognosticators puzzling.
1. What Will the Role of Gold Be in the Future?

When currencies collapse, will there be an immediate and complete switch to gold? Unlikely.

Will further fiat currencies be put forward as solutions to paper money? Almost definitely.

Will future currencies be backed by gold? Probably, especially as so many governments and banking institutions are quietly scrambling to buy gold whilst trying not to let on the extent of their stockpiling.

Will gold-backed currencies stabilise money for the rest of our lives? Quite unlikely.

Even those countries who may agree to audits to demonstrate they own the gold they claim to own will, at some point in the future, look for ways to “do a Nixon” and once again get off the gold standard. (The short-term benefits of fiddling with currency is too tempting.)
2. Who’s Got the Gold?

Currencies come and go in the world with remarkable frequency (the last hundred years has been witness to over twenty hyperinflations worldwide).

In that quiet scrambling we were talking about, no one is being really truthful about how much gold they have. In addition, even between the foremost experts on the subject (and here, I refer not to the pundits on television, but to those economists that I personally hold in the highest regard), there is broad speculation as to who holds what.

One school of thought has it that, although the US has long claimed that it possesses roughly 8,000 tonnes of gold in Fort Knox, there has not been an audit of Fort Knox since 1953. (That’s not encouraging.) Is it 8,000 tonnes? 4,000? None? We’re unlikely to ever get a truthful answer on this question.

In addition, the US has held roughly 6,000 tonnes of gold for European countries since the Cold War.

Now that the US has become the world’s foremost debtor nation, Europe is getting a bit antsy, and some are asking to have it back. In response, the Federal Reserve has sent Germany a small portion of their gold but avoids shipping the remainder and denies them even the ability to inspect the remainder. (Again, not encouraging.)

On the other hand, we have equally astute economists—US government insiders—who state that they are fairly certain the gold is there—in both Fort Knox and the New York Federal Reserve Bank's underground vault. In the latter case, they state that, although much or all of the gold has been leased to the bullion banks, it has never left the building.

What does this mean to the rightful owners? There are multiple legitimate claims on the very same bars of gold.

Might the Fed burn the rightful owners—the European nations—and burn the bullion banks? Might they just confiscate the gold (assuming it’s still there) to create a new gold-backed currency for the US, and thumb their collective noses to all other claimants?

And does the People’s Bank of China hold roughly 2,500 tonnes of gold, as has been suggested? Or do they hold 5,000, or even more? Certainly, it’s to their advantage to claim the lowest amount that might be believable at present. Some US government insiders have insisted that the low number is the true number.

The argument over this question may seem moot, but it is not. “Who has the gold” may very well decide which countries will recover from the currency crashes with their skin still on.

Whoever holds the most gold will hold the most real wealth and, by extension, gain the most prominent seat at the bargaining table for decades to come. Whether that table will be the IMF, the new AAIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank), or any future central economic entity, the future will go to the player with the most metal, as he will be able to create the most currency, in whatever form it may take.

* * *

Editor’s Note: Gold and silver have served as money for centuries and across many different civilizations. They have always been inherently international assets. There is nothing at all particularly American, Chinese, Russian, or European about gold or silver. Buying gold and silver is perhaps the easiest step you can take toward internationalizing your savings. The next step is to store your precious metals in a safe foreign jurisdiction.

It is now easy and convenient to own and store physical gold and silver offshore in places like Singapore and Switzerland in a non-bank private vault. Find out how you can internationally diversify your precious metals by downloading this guide.

[Fenix]

Chinese Stock Bubble Now Plumbing Depths Of Human Stupidity
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 13:21

Here is what happens when you rebrand your real estate company as a cutting-edge P2P lender and your shares are listed on an exchange that's in the midst of a world-beating rally driven in part by millions of newly-minted, poorly-educated day traders...


Russia Asks Greece To Join BRICS Bank
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 12:27

As if the discussions in Brussels and Athens were not mired in enough uncertainty, Bloomberg reports that a Greek official confirms:

*STORCHAK ASKED TSIPRAS FOR GREECE TO JOIN BRICS BANK: OFFICIAL

The pivot appears to continue. Reportedly, Tsipras was pleasntly surprised by the proposal.

*

Tyler Durden's picture
"Huge Disconnect Between Physical & Futures" Suggests Commodity Rally Won't Last, Barclays Warns
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 12:09

For many reasons the answer to the question: “will the commodity price rally continue?” is particularly important at this juncture, and the answer from Barclays is 'no' - it will prove very tough to make further significant gains in commodity prices from here unless supply/demand conditions improve very fast indeed. There are a multitude of factors but what erks them the most is the huge disconnect between price action in physical markets where differentials are signalling oversupply and futures markets where all looks rosy. The risks for a reversal in recent commodity price trends are growing, and with fewer market makers to absorb the shocks, potentially, a period of high volatility could lie ahead.


Uber Is Now Valued Higher Than 80% Of The S&P: Closing In On General Motors And Ford
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 11:43

Putting Uber's latest valuation in perspective, according to CapIq there were just 95 companies in the S&P500 with a market cap over $50 billion, suggesting Uber which did not exist when Lehman filed for bankruptcy, now has a market capitalization greater than 80% of the S&P. Specifically, at a $50 billion valuation, Uber is more "valuable" than FedEx, Marck, Deutsche Bank, General Dynamics, Nissan, Time Warner, Yahoo, Credit Suisse, Heineken and many other companies.

[Fenix]

Clinton Foundation Broke Transparency Promise To Obama, "Strong Armed" Charity Watchdog
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 10:56

Hillary Clinton's family charities failed to live up to transparency promises made to the Obama administration during her tenure as Secretary of State, Reuters reports, noting that disclosures related to foreign donors are still not available on the Clinton Foundation's website. Meanwhile, New York Magazine tells the story of how the Foundation attempted to bully an influential charity monitor after winding up on its 'naughty' list.


Muskular Magic (Or Smoke & Mirrors)
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 11:23

Elon Musk, Silicon Valley’s poster-boy genius replacement for the late Steve Jobs, rolled out his PowerWall battery last week with Star Wars style fanfare, doing his bit to promote and support the delusional thinking that grips a nation unable to escape the toils of techno-grandiosity. The main delusion: that we can “solve” the problems of techno-industrial society with more and better technology. The denizens of Silicon Valley are crazy about the Tesla. There is no greater status trinket in Northern California, where the fog of delusion cloaks the road to the future.


ETSY Crashes Over 40% From IPO Highs In 3 Weeks
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 10:33

From a high of $35.74, ETSY - the company that sells arts and crafts online - has collapsed almost 44% in the 3 weeks since its much-heralded IPO. Down another 9.5% today, and closing in on its IPO price of $16, it appears the 'public' stock markets are exposing the 'private' stock bubble a little too clearly recently...


7 Days Before Holder's "90 Day Ultimatum" Expires, DOJ Declines To Prosecute Citigroup
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 10:18

CITIGROUP SAYS DOJ DECLINED TO PROSECUTE ON LIBOR RIGGING


Back By Popular Demand: Presenting The Blow-Off Top In Stock Buybacks
Submitted by Tyler D.05/11/2015 - 09:29

Yesterday we showed the absolutely ridiculous move that is taking place in corporate buyback announcements. And since the blackout period for buybacks is officially over, and announcements can now become executions courtesy of Wall Street's VWAP algos, here again, by popular demand, is the chart showing the record blow-off top in debt-funded stock buybacks which together with central bank buying (such as the SNB) should be enough to support the market even as outflows from equity funds have never been higher.


S&P 500: A Pause That Refreshes, Or Is The Top In?
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 09:03

A 480-point drop in the S&P is currently deemed impossible; but then 480-point declines are always "impossible,"
yet they happen despite this presumed impossibility.


Germany Gives Greece Grexit Referendum Greenlight
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 09:13

With a deal between Greece and its creditors seen as exceedingly unlikey at Monday's Eurogroup meeting, officials and analysts alike debate the logistics of default and a return to the drachma while Greeks may be called upon to choose between austerity or preparing for the possible introduction of a parallel currency and the economic malaise that will invariably follow.

[Fenix]

"All Clear" For Stocks Cancelled: Gartman "Pleasantly Wrong", Goes "Modestly Long" Of Stocks
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 08:41

Last Thursday, when the market seemed on the verge of breaking lower, we asked if Gartman gave the all clear to go right back into stocks with his assessment that "1890 On The S&P Shall Be Our Target." As expected, stocks soared. It is now time to cancel the all clear: "As we have maintained since early last week, we’ve been neutral of stocks and we’ve now been wrong. When we are wrong we admit it and we were wrong to move from merely “pleasantly” long to neutral. Our first step is then to become modestly long, and we shall."


Saudi Army Strike Force Arrives On Yemen Border In Preparation For Land Invasion
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 07:57

One week ago when news hit that Houthi rebels had launched a rocket attack on a Saudi border town we said that "a Saudi response now appears just a matter of time, and one which the oil-trading algos are eagerly expecting, pushing Brent to within two dollars of $68." By response, we of course meant a land invasion since Saudi Arabia has already been bombing Yemen for nearly a month. That "time" may have arrived, because as Al Arabiya reports, Saudi Arabia has announced that a "strike force has arrived on the border with Yemen, as the operation to quell Houthi militias in the country continues."


What The Sellside Thought Of China's Leaked Rate Cut
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 07:44

As the SHCOMP soars, the sellside reacts to China's latest round of easing and the message is clear: more policy rate cuts are in the cards as real lending rates remain elevated and deflation risk remains high. Meanwhile, the PBoC's statement was making the rounds on WeChat hours before its official release suggesting Janet Yellen isn't the only central banker that enjoys leaking information.


Will Austerity Be The Straw That Breaks The EU & The UK?
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/11/2015 - 03:00

How this will not end badly and ugly is hard to see. As we quoted in an earlier article, the number of foodbanks in Britain went from 66 to 421 in the first 5 years of Cameron rule. How many more need to be added before people start setting cities on fire? Or even just: how much more needs to happen before the Scots have had enough? Very much like the Greeks, the Scots unambiguously voted down austerity. And in very much the same fashion, they face an entity that claims to be more powerful and insists on forcing more austerity down their throats anyway. It seems inevitable that at some point these larger entities will start to crack and break down into smaller pieces. As empires always do. Now, the EU was of course never an empire, there’s just tons of bureaucrats dreaming of that, and Britain is a long-decayed empire.

[Fenix]

When Hyperinflation Hits In Japan, Robot Suits Will Help You Move Your Yen
Tyler D.
05/10/2015 21:30

It's no secret that Japan is in the midst of what is perhaps the greatest (or most terrible, depending on whether you have a penchant for Keynesian madness or not) monetary experiment the world has ever known. With the blessing of PM Shinzo Abe and under the heavy hand of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, the BoJ is printing enough money to monetize not only the entirety of JGB gross issuance, but also the entire Japanese ETF market, with the latter effort serving to underwrite record highs on the Nikkei.

In sum, the printing presses are working around the clock in Japan and as WSJ reports, when the government finally gets what it wants and the country's descent into the Keynesian Twilight Zone finally ends in the worst example of hyperinflation the world has ever seen, no one will be forced to use a wheelbarrow to cart their yen around because in the new paranormal, you use exoskeletons to move your worthless fiat currency:

Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., the core banking unit of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., said Thursday it has rented eight robotic suits developed by Japanese robotic maker Cyberdyne Inc. to ease the burden on the employees delivering cash. The bank says that would be a first among Japanese financial institutions.

“There have been many cases when a physical burden was placed on senior employees carrying heavy parcels of bank notes and coins. By adopting Cyberdyne’s robotic suits, we can help reduce that burden,” said Tomoyuki Narita, a spokesman at SMBC, Japan’s second-largest bank by assets after Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

SMBC Delivery Service Co., which mainly collects and delivers cash between bank outlets, has approximately 1,600 workers and about 16% of them are over age 65. “We are currently placing the robotic suits at four outposts” of the delivery service, “but we’ll consider adding them in more places including the bank’s branches after assessing the effects,” Mr. Narita said.

He said the Hybrid Assistive Limb or HAL suit could reduce the burden of carrying a heavy object by about 40%, so that carrying a 10-kilogram container of bank notes and coins would feel like six kilograms...

The robotics company shares a name with the fictional defense firm behind Skynet, the artificial intelligence system that turned Earth into an apocalyptic wasteland in the Terminator series.

* * *

Welcome to the future...



China To Build Military Base In Africa Next To Critical Oil Transit Choke Point
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/10/2015 - 19:09

One year ago China was well on its way to marking its territory in southern Africa, with a core military presence near the all important for global trade Cape of Good Hope which is the transit point for about 10% of global seaborne-traded oil. Fast forward to today when AFP reports that after securing Southen Africa, China is now in process of securing the second critical geopolitical area in Africa: the horn, which just happens to be right next to the infamous Bab el-Mandeb Strait located by the recently infamous country of Yemen, which in recent months has been overrun by US-armed Houthi Rebels. According to AFP, China is negotiating a military base in the strategic port of Djibouti, the president said, raising the prospect of US and Chinese bases side-by-side in the tiny Horn of Africa nation.

[Fenix]

When Obama Talks About His "Massive Fight" With Wall Street, What Exactly Does He Refer To?
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/10/2015 - 16:14

When Obama talks of a "massive fight" with Wall Street, is he referring to:

- the tens of billions in handouts handed to each and every bank, unleashing the age of socialized losses and privatized profits?
- the condification of the Too Big To Fail concept?
- presiding over a Department of "Justice" that openly admitted it would not prosecute certain bankers over fears of systemic collapse consequences, thus mathin up TBTF with Too Big To Prosecute?
- the implementation of Barney Frank which was supposed to rein in banks and instead had Citigroup lawyers and lobbysists write the language write the language in the Derivatives Swaps Out provision of the Omnibus bill as a result of $70.3 trillion in total Citigroup derivatives, which the bank knows will one day require another taxpayer bailout?


The Age Of Cryptocurrency
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/10/2015 - 15:05

"Bitcoin represents a monumental paradigm shift that will transform the social, political and economic landscape," according to Paul Vigna and Michael J. Casey in this presentation. Since its advent, Bitcoin has gained a reputation for instability and illicit business; naysayers fear its power to eliminate jobs and upend the concept of a nation-state. Vigna and Casey show that cryptocurrencies can also bring good. For one, they remove the middleman from the financial system, giving the power to the people and safeguarding from the devastation of a 2008-type crash. They also promote financial equality; Bitcoin has already given the world’s unbanked - those marginalized billions who’ve never had a bank account - unprecedented access to the global economy.

[Comodoro]

Los gráficos del día,
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[Fenix]

EPS 'Beats' Lose All Meaning As Downward Revisions, Buybacks Mask Weakness
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/10/2015 - 11:15

The good news: companies are beating earnings estimates by the widest margin in four years. The bad news: this has very little to do with strong corporate earnings and quite a lot to do with buybacks and analysts cutting estimates. In fact, bottom-up EPS estimates fell by 8.2% in Q1, nearly double the 1-, 5-, and 10-year averages and the largest decline since 2009. Meanwhile, repurchase authorizations hit a record in April and are now set to climb to an all-time high in 2015, providing a wonderful frontrunning opportunity for everyone from retail investors to the SNB.


The Economics Of Tesla's PowerWall Don’t Make Sense For Most Customers In North America
Submitted by Tyler D.05/10/2015 - 10:32

Just like the Tesla electric car was spun as a niche product which will be adopted by everyone in the US (and the world) but increasingly appears that not only will this fad fade away only to be replaced by the next such attention-grabbing gimmick created by someone else, so the PowerWall is a product that while clearly appealing to some 40,000 early adopters "it’s yet not clear that it will expand much beyond that." According to Catalytic Engineering, the PowerWall "economics don’t make sense for most customers in North America" and that "by itself, the Tesla PowerWall residential unit won’t disrupt the energy industry, as it’s looking like a niche product."


China Cuts Rates (Again) In Desperate Bid To Buoy Stocks, Rescue Economy
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/10/2015 - 07:36

On the heels of last week's equity rout, China cuts interest rates for the third time since November. The move comes on the heels of last month's RRR cut and follows trade data that missed expectations (again) and a PPI print that betrayed persistent deflation risks. Perhaps more importantly, Chinese stocks fell last week amid still more rumors that tighter margin requirements are on the way.


A Multinational Trojan Horse: The Trans-Pacific Partnership
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/09/2015 - 20:45

Peel back the layers of the TPP and you’ll find what some believe to be a “corporate Trojan horse.” Disguised as “free trade,” the TPP’s provisions and tactics undermine Constitutional safeguards and national sovereignty. But there’s also a silver lining. The TPP exposes who, in the marbled halls of political power, is working for whom. It forces politicians to put their cards on the table, and by their hands you will know them. Packaged as a gift to the American people that will renew industry and make us more competitive, the Trans-Pacific Partnership is a Trojan horse. It’s a coup by multinational corporations who want global subservience to their agenda. Buyer beware. Citizens beware.


The "Wrong" Reason Why Bernanke Is Making Bank
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/09/2015 - 18:30

Why would financial firms pay so much for blogger Ben Bernanke’s thoughts? Aside from the marketing benefits we noted, there is one good reason. In essence, you’d want to know what Bernanke would think if he were wrong or ill-informed about some important economic issue. That is something money managers understand in a way that academics and policymakers do not, for being wrong – and knowing what to do next – is a critical skill for the professional. Getting the most information from Bernanke, either in a one-on-one or just reading his work online, boils down to just two questions: “What doesn’t he know” and “What is he sure of that is actually wrong?”


The "Wrong" Reason Why Bernanke Is Making Bank
05/09/2015 18:30 -0400

Via ConvergEx's Nicholas Colas,

Recent press accounts report that former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gets seven figures from money management firms, presumably to consult on all things economic. Fair enough – markets set prices for everything, even former Fed Chairs. But what do these firms get for their money? Today we review what the former Fed head has been writing in his blog for the Brookings Institution. In his 10 posts so far (plus a guest spot from Larry Summers), Bernanke actually breaks little new ground. He expresses confidence in the Fed’s current low rate policies, professes some confusion about why long rates remain so low, and spends little time on the Fed’s role as regulator. Taken as a whole, his writing very much reflects the academic underpinnings of a “Much lower for longer” Fed Funds policy. So why is he worth $1 million and more to money managers? Likely because they want to ascertain what he doesn’t know more than what he does.

In thinking about the news that former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke now gets millions of dollars for consulting to the money management industry, I can’t help but think of the old Saturday Night Live character of Chico Escuela. Played by Garrett Morris, Chico was an affable Dominican baseball player whose typical response to any question posed by the press was a sincerely grateful “Baseball been very very good to me”. The study of economics, like baseball, has lots of statistics and featured events that seem to move at a snail’s pace to the uninitiated. And, certainly, economics has been very very good to Ben Bernanke.

But what do these titans of our industry get for their money? It is certainly a feather in the cap of any portfolio manager to tell his or her clients that they are getting the very best thoughts from a former Fed Chair. He no doubt makes a splash at client events as well and can likely fill in a lot of the microscopic blanks that policy wonks wonder about daily. As a marketing expense, therefore, private access to Dr. Bernanke is no doubt worth its weight in gold. Or $1 million in fiat currency, apparently, if the gold standard isn’t your thing.

To get a sense of what – and how - Dr. Bernanke thinks, however, you don’t need to plunk down a 5 inch Halliburton aluminum briefcase jammed with Benjamins, for Ben Bernanke has a blog. It is hosted on the Brookings Institution website, where he is a Distinguished Fellow in Residence with the Economic Studies Program. The former Fed Chair has already posted 10 original pieces plus a guest entry from Larry Summers. It may not be the same as sitting down with him in a private conference room, but let’s not forget that Bernanke has been either an academic or public servant his entire life. The chances that what he writes publicly and what he says privately differ in any material respect are remote indeed. He likely wouldn’t know how to do it if he tried.

The topic for Bernanke’s inaugural post was “Why are interest rates so low?” It is a prosaic topic, but it does offer the change to hear his most fundamental thoughts on the issue. They are:

“Low interest rates are not an aberration, but part of a long term trend.” He assigns inflationary expectations partial credit for the decline since the late 1970s. To the degree that we’ve reached the zero lower bound for short-term rates, it is not just a function of the Financial Crisis but also a persistent secular trend to lower inflation. What will reverse this +30 year trend? Dr. Bernanke is somewhat mum on that point.



He believes that the “person on the street” holds the Federal Reserve responsible for the current low level of interest rates. That’s an odd characterization, if only because it seems unlikely that the average citizen knows very much about the Federal Reserve. Above that, if you look at Google Correlate for online searches that occur in tandem with queries for “Federal Reserve” you’ll see concurrent online interest in “T Bills” and “Treasury bill” and “Treasury bill rates”. What you don’t see: “Mortgage rates” or “Refi rates”. To the degree people understand the role of the Federal Reserve, they do actually link it to the level of short-term interest rates, not the long end of the curve.



We bring this up because you have to ask why Dr. Bernanke is so publicly visible in his post-government life. I don’t think it is his personal legacy that he worries most about; rather, it is defending the societal value of an independent central bank led primarily by academically trained economists. After the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented interventions since 2007, he feels the need to explain both what the institution did and why it acts the way it does now.



Notably absent from Dr. Bernanke’s maiden effort was any discussion of quantitative easing. Yes, $3 trillion of capital on the Fed’s balance sheet and nary a word as to why or wherefore. The topic does arise in later posts, but you’d think a program of its size would engender more commentary.

As for the balance of his writing, Dr. Bernanke seems to have three critical points that reappear with regularity:

He feels that governments are not doing enough to spur economic growth, relying too much on central banks to help domestic economies. One blog entry calls out Germany by name, with recommendations for more fiscal spending on infrastructure to spur imports. Germany’s trade surplus creates structural imbalances within the Eurozone, threatening its long run stability, according to Dr. Bernanke. No doubt he also has in the back of his mind the challenges the Federal Reserve faced during the aftermath of the Financial Crisis, when fiscal austerity was a headwind to economic growth.



In his comments to an International Monetary Fund conference, included in his blog, Dr. Bernanke argued that the Federal Reserve might consider maintaining a larger balance sheet than before the Financial Crisis. His argument was essentially that it offers a more nuanced set of monetary policy options. The subtext, however, is that central banks need more firepower to help manage the economy. Given his worries over the actions of elected officials during times of economic turmoil, it’s not hard to see why.



Dr. Bernanke considers the possibility that the U.S. economy is in a period of low growth “Secular stagnation”, but ultimately dismisses the notion. To his thinking, the current slow growth in the U.S. is temporary, unemployment is declining, and inflationary expectations are within normal bounds. The only guest post so far on Bernanke’s blog is from Larry Summers, who worries that for the last 20 years or so we’ve only had healthy economic growth alongside financial and residential real estate bubbles. Bottom line: Dr. Bernanke doesn’t think things are different from prior cycles in enough ways to merit changing cyclically-minded monetary policy.



Regulation and monetary policy are very different mandates, and the Federal Reserve needs to address them separately. One central criticism of the Federal Reserve since the Financial Crisis has been its pre-2007 oversight of the U.S. banking system. Fair enough, even if the there is enough blame to go around among other regulatory bodies. Dr. Bernanke feels that the Federal Reserve should essentially firewall that issue away from monetary policy. To the degree speculative bubbles occur due to lax lending standards, regulation can address that. Monetary policy shouldn’t be used to deflate financial asset prices. The subtext here: strictly regulating systematically important financial institutions is necessary to maintaining optimal monetary policy.

You might be thinking that much of this is familiar ground, so why would financial firms pay so much for Dr. Bernanke’s thoughts? Aside from the marketing benefits we noted, there is one good reason. You really want to know what Dr. Bernanke doesn’t know and/or about what issues he is mistaken. As one simple example, what if the U.S. only grows at 1-2% this year and employment gains are limited to 150,000 jobs/month? That would fly in the face of his rejection of “Secular stagnation”, a dismissal that the current Federal Reserve seems to share. Since he mentioned quantitative easing so infrequently in his writing, does he think a “QE4” would not be useful?

In essence, you’d want to know what Dr. Bernanke would think if he were wrong or ill-informed about some important economic issue. That is something money managers understand in a way that academics and policymakers do not, for being wrong – and knowing what to do next – is a critical skill in the professional. Getting the most information from Dr. Bernanke, either in a one-on-one or just reading his work online, boils down to just two questions: “What doesn’t he know” and “What is he sure of that is actually wrong?"

[admin]

La UE propone plan para acoger hasta 20.000 refugiados al año


Pescadores observan los restos de un barco que transportaba inmigrantes cerca de la costa griega. Associated Press

BRUSELAS (EFE Dow Jones)--La Unión Europea podría aceptar hasta a 20.000 refugiados al año y establecer un programa de redistribución automática para los inmigrantes que llegan en los países del sureste de Europa, de acuerdo con los planes que se están desarrollando actualmente en Bruselas.

El plan de distribución utilizará una fórmula que tiene en cuenta el tamaño de la población, la fortaleza de la economía y la tasa de desempleo en cada país, así como el número de refugiados que ya ha acogido, de acuerdo con el borrador del texto al que tuvo acceso The Wall Street Journal. Se espera que la Comisión Europea apruebe el documento el miércoles.

“La Agenda Europea para la Migración” responde a la crisis de refugiados que Europa está sufriendo especialmente desde el sur, después de que miles de inmigrantes han perdido la vida en su intento por cruzar el Mar Mediterráneo para llegar a países de la UE.

Las Naciones Unidas ha pedido a la UE que acoja hasta 20.000 refugiados al año, directamente de campos de países que no pertenecen a la región, como Turquía o Líbano, donde se sitúan la mayoría de los cuatro millones de personas que huyeron de la guerra civil siria.

Según el documento, el plan de relocalización estará financiado con 50 millones de euros entre 2015 y 2016. Aún se está discutiendo el número de lugares en los que podrán reubicarse a los refugiados.

El presidente de la Comisión Europea, Jean-Claude Juncker, es el principal impulsor de esta iniciativa, que cuenta con el respaldo de Alemania, según confirmaron dos diplomáticos de la UE.

Por el momento, Alemania y Suecia son los dos países que más refugiados han acogido en Europa e insisten en que un “sistema voluntario” no implica que otros estados descuiden sus responsabilidades. El sistema no se aplicaría en Reino Unido, Irlanda y Dinamarca, que no forman parte del sistema de asilo de la UE.

“Tenemos que empezar en algún sitio. Un acuerdo sobre los refugiados de fuera de la UE podría ser más fácil, porque son los más necesitados. Después podríamos dirigirnos a la relocalización dentro de la UE”, dijo un diplomático.

[admin]

La música aumenta los sentimientos de atracción, según un estudio


ILUSTRACIÓN: SOPHIE BLACKALL

La música podría ser el alimento del amor, según un estudio. Los sentimientos de interés y atracción entre mujeres y hombres solteros aumentaron de forma considerable si había música de fondo en su primer encuentro comparado con la ausencia de música, de acuerdo con un artículo de Psychology of Music.

Las impresiones de otros rasgos de personalidad, como la franqueza y la afabilidad, también recibieron mayores calificaciones con música de fondo.

Las primeras conversaciones son importantes y a menudo indican si una pareja tiene una relación futura, señaló el estudio. La música influye sobre los sistemas neuroquímicos en el cerebro que podrían mejorar las impresiones interpersonales formadas durante esas conversaciones, agregó.

Los científicos japoneses reclutaron a 32 estudiantes, 16 hombres y 16 mujeres de veintitantos años, que simularon una fiesta gokon japonesa para konkatsu, es decir para encontrar a un cónyuge. La mitad fueron asignados a experimentos con música y la mitad sin música. Cuatro estudiantes adicionales, dos hombres y dos mujeres que los sujetos no conocían, actuaron como visitantes.

Los experimentos fueron realizados en dos mesas, cada una con dos sujetos varones y dos sujetos mujeres y dos visitantes del sexo opuesto que se sentaron y charlaron informalmente. Después de 20 minutos, los visitantes se cambiaron de mesas y conversaron con cuatro sujetos nuevos. En los experimentos con música, que fueron realizados por separado, selecciones de rock, rap y música clásica se escuchaban a través de un pequeño parlante en la mesa mientras los visitantes entraban y salían de la sala, y durante las conversaciones.

Los sujetos en ambos grupos calificaron 10 rasgos de personalidad para describir su impresión de los visitantes del sexo opuesto, incluyendo confianza, paciencias, afabilidad e interés en el noviazgo, antes y después de los encuentros. (El experimento fue repetido dos veces para ambos grupos).

Las calificaciones promedio de los 10 rasgos de personalidad fueron mayores después de conversaciones con música comparadas con las otras, lo que sugiere que la música incrementó los sentimientos de atracción por los visitantes, afirmaron los investigadores. La afabilidad y el interés en salir con la persona experimentaron sus mayores alzas cuando fueron acompañados por música.

Las conversaciones sin música también resultaron en mayores calificaciones para la mayoría de los 10 rasgos de personalidad, aunque el aumento fue menor que con los grupos con música.

Advertencia: La música podría haber transformado la conducta de los invitados volviéndolos más encantadores, apuntaron los investigadores. Efectos más fuertes podrían ocurrir si los sujetos eligen su propia música, afirmaron.