Lunes 25/05/15 Memorial Day

[Fenix]

Facebook: pierde soporte de una línea de tendencia alcista

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Lunes, 25 de Mayo del 2015 - 20:07 CET
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 86,2

Nuestra preferencia: Posiciones cortas debajo de 86,2 con objetivos en 77 y 73,3 en extensión.

Escenario alternativo: Arriba de 86,2 buscar mayor indicación al alza con 89,5 y 94,5 como objetivos.

Comentario técnico: Mientras la resistencia en 86,2 no sea sobrepasada, el riesgo de un quiebre debajo de 77 se mantiene alto.

Los estadounidenses no ahorran suficiente

Lunes, 25 de Mayo del 2015 - 20:31:00

Un nuevo informe de JP Morgan dice que la mayoría de los estadounidenses no tienen suficiente dinero ahorrado en caso de una emergencia. El análisis de JP Morgan muestra que sólo los estadounidenses más ricos podrían soportar un mes sin ingresos.

Las familias más pobres tenían apenas un 37,5 por ciento de los 1.600 dólares que necesitan para cubrir la volatilidad de un mes, de acuerdo con el informe.


Los perceptores de ingresos medios, que necesitan 4.800 dólares, mantenían el 62,5 por ciento.

La mayoría de los estadounidenses tendrían que pedir dinero prestado o vender un activo ilíquido si se produce un coste inesperado.

[Fenix]

Bono EEUU junio. Los máximos cada vez son menores
Lunes, 25 de Mayo del 2015 - 21:27
Desde principios de mayo, la reacción alcista ha marcado máximos cada vez más bajos (y esta última vez no se ha alcanzado ni el techo de la banda de la media de 55 sesiones).

El comportamiento muestra que la presión bajista se está acumulando y es probable un nuevo test sobre el soporte clave de corto plazo y línea clavicular de una formación de hombro-cabeza-hombro creada desde finales de octubre.

Resistencias 127-17 127-29 128-04+ 128-06+
Soportes 127-04 126-24+ 126-06+ 125-27+

Dinero llama a dinero


Lunes, 25 de Mayo del 2015 - 21:52:00

Son datos del ECB del mes de marzo. El saldo vivo de las participaciones de fondos de inversión del área EUR diferente de monetarios fue de 971 bn. EUR por encima del nivel de un año antes, alcanzando 9.4 tr. Supone un aumento del 9%.

El saldo de fondos monetarios se ha incrementado también en el periodo hasta 1.0 tr. (917 bn. un año atrás).

Estos son los datos (ver gráfico adjunto).

Por tipo de activo, la tasa de variación anual de los fondos que invierten en activos diferentes a renta variable (6 tr.) subieron un 9.5 %. La de las acciones (2.4 tr.) al alza un 3.4 %. Los de renta fija (2.7 tr.) con un crecimiento del 7.2 %. Los fondos mixtos (2.2 tr.) al alza un 15.6 %.

[Fenix]

The Happiness Industry: How Government And Big Business Manipulate Your Moods For Profit
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/25/2015 - 19:05

Psychology is very often how societies avoid looking in the mirror. A major structural reason for the surging interest in happiness is somewhat more disturbing, and concerns technology. Until relatively recently, most scientific attempts to manipulate how someone else was feeling occurred within formally identifiable institutions, such as psychology laboratories, hospitals, workplaces, focus groups, or some such. This is no longer the case. In July 2014, Facebook published an academic paper containing details of how it had successfully altered hundreds of thousands of its users’ moods, by manipulating their news feeds. There was an outcry that this had been done in a clandestine fashion. But as the dust settled, the anger turned to anxiety: would Facebook bother to publish such a paper in future, or just get on with the experiment anyway and keep the results to themselves?



Chinese State Paper Warns "War Will Be Inevitable" Unless U.S. Stops Meddling In Territorial Dispute
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/25/2015 - 15:42

Just to confirm that if the US had hoped it could threaten Beijing into submission and force the Politburo into curbing its expanionist appetit, it was dead wrong, the nationalist Global Times, a paper owned by the ruling Communist Party’s official newspaper, the People’s Daily, said in a Monday editorial that war was “inevitable” between China and the United States unless Washington stopped demanding Beijing halt the building of artificial islands in the disputed waterway.

[Fenix]

Inflation Watch: Prices To "The Happiest Place On Earth" Are Up 2900% Since 1971
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/25/2015 - 16:30

Having previously shown that money can buy happiness, it appears, as Bloomberg reports, that the cost of buying that happiness is soaring. With well-managed government-provided statistics on inflation, why would one look elsewhere for clues as to the declining standards of living across much of America... but look we did and with wages stagnant, the 2900% surge in prices to Disneyland since 1971 makes 'the happeist place on earth' a place only the wealthy can afford to visit.


The Case For Nationalizing Monsanto
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/25/2015 - 15:00

Ridding the world of Monsanto via a state buy-out would be a boon to humanity, and doing so for a mere $57 billion would be a bargain - especially when you consider the $3 trillion the state has squandered on endless wars of choice and the trillions of dollars the Federal Reserve and the government have squandered propping up the self-serving, parasitic cartel of too big to jail banks.

US Accuses Iraq Army Of Cowardice, Says "More Firepower Support" Needed Against ISIS
Submitted by Tyler D.05/25/2015 - 13:00

“The Iraqi forces just showed no will to fight. They were not outnumbered. In fact they vastly outnumbered the opposing force and yet they failed to fight and withdrew from the site...We can give them training, we can give them equipment. We obviously can’t give them the will to fight.”


ECB's Bizarro QE Taper May Add To Summer Bond Market Volatility, Citi Says
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/25/2015 - 12:01

"If, as the ECB's Coeuré said, you are concerned about the rapidity of the market moves, it seems odd, in our view, to give everyone an incentive to get longer today only to sell again tomorrow."

[admin]

urrencies7:47 PM EDT 5/25/2015
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.0980 0.0003
Yen (USD/JPY) 121.56 0.00
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.5476 0.0005
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7828 0.0004
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9451 0.0001
WSJ Dollar Index 86.34 -0.01

[Fenix]

Mario Draghi's Slippery Downward Slope
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/25/2015 - 11:05

There has to be a very clear line between central banks and governments. The latter should never be able to influence the former, because it would risk making economic policy serve only short term interests (until the next election). Likewise the former should stay out of the latter’s decisions, because that would tend to make political processes skewed disproportionally towards finance and the economy, at the potential cost of other interests in a society. This may sound idealistic and out of sync with the present day reality, but if it does, that does not bode well. It’s dangerous to play fast and loose with the founding principles of individual countries, and perhaps even more with those of unions of sovereign nations.


Ron Paul Rages: Janet Yellen is Right, She Can’t Predict The Future
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/25/2015 - 09:29

Some say that eliminating the welfare-warfare state and the fiat currency system that props it up will cause the people pain. The truth is the only people who will feel any long-term pain from returning to limited, constitutional government are the special interests that profit from the current system. A return to a true free-market economy will greatly improve the lives of the vast majority of Americans.


Greek "Anti-Austerity" Wave Spreads In Dramatic Loss For Spanish Status Quo
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/25/2015 - 08:51

With just 10 days until a June 5 IMF payment that Athens almost certainly will not make unless it strikes a deal for the disbursement of more bailout funds, things just got quite a bit more interesting on the EU political front after Spain’s Popular Party was dealt a dramatic electoral blow on Sunday by the leftist Podemos and center-right Ciudadanos.


Oil Futures Prices Divorced From Physical Markets For Now
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/25/2015 - 08:22

"Like pushing a rock up a hill," is how some trader’s view the current disconnect between the physical market for crude oil and the futures market with speculators pushing futures prices higher while the physical market remains moribund.


"It's A Coup D'Etat," David Stockman Warns "Central Banks Are Out Of Control"
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/24/2015 - 23:30

We're all about to be taken to the woodshed, warns David Stockman in this excellent interview... "it's a coup d'etat, the central banks have taken over - it's an unconstitutional domination of the entire economy."


Bernanke Says "No Large Mispricings In US Securities"; These 5 Charts Say Otherwise
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/24/2015 - 22:28

Retired central banker, blogger, bond guru and hedge fund consultant Ben Bernanke just uttered the following total rubbish...

*BERNANKE: NO LARGE MISPRICINGS IN U.S. SECURITIES, ASSET PRICES

In an effort to save whoever it is that will pay him $250,000 next for these wise words, we offer five charts.


Hanergy Contagion Sparks Chinese Investor Rotation From Shenzhen "Ponzi" To Shanghai "Safety"
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/24/2015 - 22:03

It appears the reality that we exposed in all its unbelievable ponzi-ness has filtered into the psyche of Chinese investors.. though ever so gently for now. Hanergy's self-dealing self-referential loans collateralized by stock and Goldin financial's farcical flop, along with 500% return year-to-date stocks by the dozen, has sparked some selling with CHINEXT down around 4%, Shenzhen down 1-2% (both heavily dominated by these high-flying idiot-maker stocks) while Shanghai Composite and CSI-300 (China A-Share proxy) is bid... because why wouldn't you greatly rotate to the index that is only up 47% YTD and not 92%?


How iTunes Destroyed The Music Business In 1 Simple Chart
Submitted by Tyler D.05/24/2015 - 21:30

The music industry was the first entertainment business to confront the digital transition, although, as Goldman notes, it was not exactly a willing pioneer... It wasn’t until 2004 when Apple iTunes debuted that consumers grew more and more primed to free music; and after a small bump in sales in 2004 from the launch of iTunes, the declines resumed as the double whammy of album unbundling and a 30% wholesale price cut took its toll. From 2004 to 2014, US music unit and dollar sales declined cumulatively by another 50%, erasing US$5 bn in annual sales.

[Fenix]

Ron Paul: The Case For Truly 'Free' Trade
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/24/2015 - 20:55

With recent DC politicking on both the Export-Import Bank and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, we revisit Ron Paul's 1981 essay "The Case for Free Trade" which explains the basics of truly free trade... "Although we think of ourselves as a free-trading nation, it takes more than 700 pages just to list all the tariffs on imported goods, and another 400 to inventory all the non-tariff restraints, such as quotas and "orderly marketing agreements..."


Grexit "Disaster" Looms As Greek Hospitals Run Out Of Sheets, Painkillers
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/24/2015 - 19:58

"Greek hospitals have run out of supplies such as painkillers, scissors and sheets as budget cuts have left the health service unable to provide even basic provisions for operations and medical procedures," The Independent reports. With Tsipras still refusing to compromise on campaign "red lines," the end game is quite clearly approaching.


The "New Era" Is An Old Story
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/24/2015 - 19:45

It’s not monetary easing, but the attitude of investors toward risk that distinguishes an overvalued market that continues higher from an overvalued market that is vulnerable to vertical losses. That window of vulnerability has been open for several months now, and the immediacy of our downside concerns would ease (despite obscene valuations) only if market internals and credit spreads were to shift back toward evidence of investor risk-seeking. Eventually, the final refuge of speculation is to abandon historically reliable measures wholesale, resting faith instead on the advent of some new era in which the old rules simply don’t apply.


The Best-Selling 'Monetary-Policy' Books Are All Anti-Fed
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/24/2015 - 19:10

The fact that such books dominate the book sales in this category tells us a thing or two about how the near consensus of approval once enjoyed by the Fed (and other Western central banks) is long gone.

[Fenix]

China Establishes World's Largest Physical Gold Fund
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/24/2015 - 16:19

Overnight Xinhua also reported that a gold sector fund involving countries along the ancient Silk Road has been set up in northwest China's Xi'an City during an ongoing forum on investment and trade this weekend. (read more about the "New Silk Road" which could change global economics forever here). The fund, led by Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), is expected to raise an estimated 100 billion yuan (16.1 billion U.S. Dollars) in three phases. The amount of capital allocated to nothing but physical gold purchases (without plans for financial paper intermediation a la western ETFs) will be the largest in the world.


Small Cap Volatility Hitting Historic Lows
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/24/2015 - 15:45

As measured by the Russell 2000 Volatility Index (RVX), volatility expectations for the small cap index have only been this low a couple of times since its inception in 2006. Of course, volatility expectations can always go even lower. Looking historically, though, the rubber band is essentially as stretched to the down side as it has ever been. Therefore, if the RVX continues lower, it would be pushing a new lower bound on its all-time chart.

Drilling Efficiency To Keep Oil Prices Low
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/24/2015 - 12:45

Economics 101 tells us that prices in a free market are set by the interaction of supply and demand. The world oil markets have gotten a graphic lesson in that truth over the last year, as the dramatic surge in US oil production has met stagnant demand. This, in turn, has pushed down spot prices by nearly half. The recent uptick in oil prices, however, has buoyed hopes among market watchers that a strong oil price rally is in order. Unfortunately economics is working against these investors.


Game Theory Pioneer John Nash, Wife, Killed In Taxi Crash
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/24/2015 - 10:17
The world lost one of its truly beautiful minds this Saturday, when a taxi carrying John Nash, 86, and his wife of nearly 60 years, Alicia, crashed on the New Jersey Turnpike. The two were killed on the spot when the driver of the Ford Crown Victoria lost control as he tried to pass a Chrysler in the center lane, crashing into a guard rail according to NJ.com.John Forbes Nash, Jr, was best known recently for the 2001 movie starting Russell Crowe"A Beautiful Mind" which depicted his struggles with schizophrenia. His biggest accomplishment was his groundbreaking and pioneering work on game theory. His thesis contained the definition and properties of what is now known as the "Nash equilibrium" - a crucial concept in non-cooperative ga mes, it won Nash the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1994.

Traders Are Buying Gold & Silver At Fastest Pace In Over A Decade
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/23/2015 - 18:30

The last time large speculators were as aggressively buying silver as last week was September 1997. The net long non-commercial positioning in Silver futures, according to the CFTC rose almost 22,000 contracts last week to a 3-month high (which is closing in on the 'longest' since 2005). Gold, not be out-precious'd also saw major buying. Net speculative longs in gold added over 45,000 contracts - the most since July 2005 - lifting net long positions to their highest in 3 months. Perhaps, just perhaps, as Alhambra's Jeffrey Snider notes, this is due to Yellen putting the 'dollar' back on suicide watch.

[Fenix]

Is Greece Still A Country If Someone Else Owns Its Assets?
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/23/2015 - 18:00

Foreign investment is of course common around the world and is generally seen as a good thing. Americans mostly like it, for instance, when Japanese investors bid up shares of US companies or Chinese expats pay above asking price for Manhattan apartments. With only a few exceptions we take the money and don’t look back. But there must be a limit, a point where foreign interests own so much of a country that they call the shots and the locals become in effect their serfs. Greece might be the test case that shows us where that point is...


"New Silk Road" Could Change Global Economics Forever, Part 1
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/23/2015 - 16:45

China is building the world’s greatest economic development and construction project ever undertaken: The New Silk Road. The project aims at no less than a revolutionary change in the economic map of the world. It is also seen by many as the first shot in a battle between east and west for dominance in Eurasia. For the world at large, its decisions about the Road are nothing less than momentous. The massive project holds the potential for a new renaissance in commerce, industry, discovery, thought, invention, and culture that could well rival the original Silk Road. It is also becoming clearer by the day that geopolitical conflicts over the project could lead to a new cold war between East and West for dominance in Eurasia.


Constitution 1 - 0 Government: NSA Starts Winding Down Bulk Data Collection
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/23/2015 - 15:15

As we detailed earlier, in a chaotic scene during the wee hours of Saturday, Senate Republicans blocked a bill known as the USA Freedom Act - backed by President Barack Obama, House Republicans and the nation's top law enforcement and intelligence officials - which would have preserved the government's ability to search phone company records for suspected spies and terrorists. As AP reports, the failure to act means the NSA will immediately begin curtailing its previously-secret bulk data collection progreams with The DoJ noting that while it will take time to taper off the collection process, that process began Friday (according to an administration official). Sen. Rand Paul called the Senate's failure to allow an extension of the surveillance programs a victory for privacy rights, adding "we should never give up our rights for a false sense of security."

Steen Jakobsen Warns, Brace For The Next Recession
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/23/2015 - 13:00

The financial world today is now an island on its own – separated from the real economy, as can be seen by the paradox of record high valuation in the stock market coinciding with record low inflation, employment , productivity and no hope. There is asset inflation, but deflation in the real economy. When the world has been this long at the zero-bound, the misallocation, the inability to reform, and a toolbox without new tools creates a mandate for change. "I expect stocks to trade sideways for the balance of 2015 and have now sold all my fixed income, increased my gold exposure, and I’m looking to buy mining companies and overall to increase my exposure to commodities beyond the normal allocation."


Rand Paul Blocks Extension Of Patriot Act, Future Of Illegal NSA Spying On Americans In Limbo
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/23/2015 - 11:42

While an extension of the Patriot Act, that landmark bill which ushered in the America's Big Brother, "turnkey totalitarian state" (previewed here long before Edward Snowden's shocking revelations), is just a matter of time, supporters of the Fourth Amendment scored a brief victory last night when following yet another marathon 10 hour filibuster and refusal to play by the script by Rand Paul, the Senate failed to extend the Patriot Act, leaving the future of America's "war against terrorists" but really against "enemies domestic", i.e., anyone who uses email, has a cell phone or in any other electronic way communicates with others, in limbo.


Time To Get Real About China
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/23/2015 - 11:30

The present Chinese leadership appears to be trying to gain (regain?) more - if not full - control over the country’s economic system, while at the same time (re-)boosting the growth it has lost in recent years. President Xi Jinping, prime minister Li Keqiang and all of their subservient leaders – there are 1000?s of those in a 1.4 million citizens country- apparently think this can be done. We truly doubt it. We don’t think that they ever understood what would happen if they opened up the country to a more free-market, capitalist structure. That doing so would automatically reduce their political power, since a free market, in whatever shape and form, does not rhyme with the kind of control which the Communist Party has been used to for decades, and which the current leaders have grown up taking for granted.


How China's (Formerly) Richest Man Crashed His Own Fortune When He Tried To Sell A Stock
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/23/2015 - 11:17

One year ago, we explained "How The Market Is Like CYNK." Earlier this week, China's richest man found out how right we were, in the hardest way possible

[Fenix]

The US Department Of Commerce Officially Jumps The Shark, Will "Double Seasonally Adjust" GDP Data
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/23/2015 - 09:23

It's official: after seeing it work so well for years in China, the US Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Statistics has officially replaced all of its excel models with just one function. The following.


For Today's Investors: Ignorance Is Not Bliss - It Is Oblivion
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/22/2015 - 22:25

“Ignorance is not bliss – it is oblivion. Determined ignorance is the hastiest kind of oblivion.” As investors, we have all been warned. Not by the future, but by the past.


Junk-Rated Chicago Has A Billion Dollar Pension Problem
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/22/2015 - 21:50

In downgrading the city, Moody’s said it expected “Chicago's credit challenges will continue, both in the near term and in the long term [as] unfunded liabilities of the Municipal, Laborer, Police, and Fire pension plans grow and exert increasing pressure on the city's operating budget.” That looks to have been an accurate assessment, because as Bloomberg reports, Chicago’s budget gap is set to triple by 2017.


"Strongly Dissatisfied" China Warns US "Accident" Is "Highly Likely" In South China Sea
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/22/2015 - 20:40

"China said on Friday it was 'strongly dissatisfied' after a U.S. military plane flew over part of the South China Sea near where China is building artificial islands, and called on the United States to stop such action or risk causing an accident."


It Is Mathematically Impossible To Pay Off All Of Our Debt
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/22/2015 - 18:55

Did you know that if you took every single penny away from everyone in the United States that it still would not be enough to pay off the national debt? Today, the debt of the federal government exceeds $145,000 per household, and it is getting worse with each passing year. Many believe that if we paid it off a little bit at a time that we could eventually pay it all off, but as you will see below that isn’t going to work either.

[Fenix]

Willem "Gold-Is-A-6000-Year-Bubble" Buiter Says A New Greek Currency "Would Be Rubbish"
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/22/2015 - 13:16

Having shown his true colors in recent months by embarking not just on an anti-gold crusade, but more recently on an anti-cash mission, Citi's Willem Buiter has once again exposed his newly minted CFR status-quo-embracing status this morning. During an appearance on CNBC, Buiter notes that there would be "havoc" if Greece left the euro zone and adopted an alternative currency; but then he went on the pre-prescription blasting that any kind of alternative currency tied to the euro "would be rubbish." These comments come just hours after German FinMin Schaeuble raised the possibility that Greece may need a parallel currency alongside the euro if the country’s talks with creditors fail.


Wall Street R.I.P. - The Bubble Is Dying At The Zero Bound
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/22/2015 - 11:10

If any evidence was needed that the market is dying at the zero bound, it came in this week’s violent 15-minute rip when the algos read the Fed’s release to mean there will be no rate hike in June. It put you in mind of monetary rigor mortis - the last spasm of something that’s already dead but doesn’t know it. The Great Financial Bubble dying at the zero bound has been inflating with just three interruptions - 1987, 2000 and 2008-09 - for the last 33 years. As a result, the market value of stocks, bonds and other debts have simply become decoupled from national income.


Austria Confirms Faith In Fiat Fading: Repatriates 110 Tons Of Gold From BOE
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/22/2015 - 12:43

Six months ago we warned that Austria was considering it, and now, as Kronen-Zeitung reports, with no rigged Swiss-like referendum required, Austrian Central Bank Governor Edwald Nowotny has committed to repatriating 110 tonnes of gold. This is part of Nowotny's new "gold strategy" and with his position (on paper) as one of Draghi's foremost lieutenants, appears to be a huge stab in the back for super-Mario. While gold withdrawals from the NY Fed are incessant, this time it appears the Bank of England faces the trust-fall as 80% of Vienna's gold is held there.


Dear FBI: Here Is Today's Market Manipulation
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/22/2015 - 12:32

Last Thursday, it was Avon that was cheated higher after a fake takeover filing provided just enough momo juice for the machines to destroy any and every short in the stock instantly. Today, it was Quest Diagnostics turn to be manipulated.

[Fenix]

Why The US Consumer Is About To be Crushed: The Obamacare Inflationary Deluge Arrives
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/22/2015 - 10:53

For the past three years, the biggest argument supporters of Obamacare would trot out every single time when faced with opposition to the mandatory tax, would be that despite widespread predictions of soaring prices, US medical care service costs had remained low and even, on occasion, declined. All that changed moments ago when core US inflation finally spiked the most since 2013 driven by a 0.7% monthly surge in medical care service costs: the highest since 2007!


Meanwhile, Mass Layoffs Continue For America's Miners
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/22/2015 - 10:51

Murray Energy, the third-largest coal producer in the US, will layoff 21% of its employees with the majority of the cuts coming in West Virginia, which is staring down a $195 million budget gap thanks to the slide in coal prices. Meanwhile, CEO and founder Robert Murray is buying more coal mines.

Why Oil's Rally Is Over
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/22/2015 - 10:20

A lot of people have got very excited as the price of WTI has bounced back from the lows reached a few months ago. If oil fails to break and hold above $62 this time around, however, their enthusiasm could well be misplaced, as the fundamental factors that caused the price decline in the first instance are still in place.


Shake Shocker: Each SHAK "Restaurant" Is Now Worth $53 Million
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/22/2015 - 09:38

Yesterday the average SHAK restaurant was worth $48 million. Today it is $53 million and rising, following the overnight 6% surge in the company's market cap. Because why not.


George Soros Warns "No Exaggeration" That China-US On "Threshold Of World War 3"
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/22/2015 - 09:12

While admitting that reaching agreement between the two countries will be difficult to achieve, George Soros - speaking at The World Bank's Bretton Woods conference this week - warned that unless the U.S. makes 'major concessions' and allows China's currency to join the IMF's basket of currencies, "there is a real danger China will align itself with Russia politically and militarily, and then it is not an exaggeration to say that we are on the threshold of a third world war."


Core Consumer Prices Jump Most Since March 2006 Thanks To Surging Healthcare Costs
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/22/2015 - 08:45

The market appears to have chosen the hotter-than-expected Core CPI print (as opposed to weakest headline CPI YoY print since Oct 2009 of -0.2%) as key. Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM in April - the most since March 2006; and 1.8% YoY - the most since Jan 2013. The biggest driver of the surge in consumer prices is medical care costs - which rose 0.7% - the biggest increase since January 2007 (thanks Obamacare).

US Retaliates At China Escalation, Warns Sea "Sandcastles" May "Lead To Conflict"
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/21/2015 - 22:15

"As China seeks to make sovereign land out of sandcastles and redraw maritime boundaries, it is eroding regional trust and undermining investor confidence" -- US Deputy Secretary of State

The Government's Message For Heavily Indebted Students: Don't Pay Us Back
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/21/2015 - 21:35

"The U.S. Department of Education wants to remind you that you may qualify for a repayment plan that calculates your monthly payment based on your income. You will likely qualify for an income-driven repayment plan if your total federal student loan debt exceeds your annual income. Under an income-driven plan, your initial payment could be as low as $0 per month." -- US Department of Education

[Fenix]

3 Things: If You Don't Like It Change It
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/21/2015 - 18:45

Since QE programs have not been effective at creating organic economic growth, the only effective monetary policy tool of the Fed to stave off the effects of a recessionary drag, lowering interest rates, is not available. This is why, despite weak economic growth, little inflation and a large amount of labor slack in the economy, the Fed has consistently hinted that they will likely raise the overnight lending rates in June. Therefore, since the Fed is "data dependent," a boost to GDP, via the recalculation of the numbers, would be vastly supportive in justifying that increase. However, is economic growth really stronger than currently reported? We can look at some alternative measures of the economy to answer that question.


Broke Kansas To Tax Poor People By Placing $25 Limit On ATM Withdrawals
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/21/2015 - 18:15

Kansas, which is laboring under an $800 million funding gap, will limit cash withdrawals on state-issued benefit cards to $25 per day starting on July 1, forcing some beneficiaries to go to the ATM more often. Because the state charges $1 per trip, and because many low-income families do not have a checking account, the new law amounts to a sizeable 'poor tax'.


572 Reasons Why The Fed Is Terrified To Hike: "One Rate Cut Every Three Trading Days"
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/21/2015 15:46 -0400

If sometime it feels like central banks have "have your back" when trading stocks every single day since the collapse of Lehman, you are wrong. They only have your back every third day, because according to Bank of America there have been a ridiculous 572 rate cuts around the globe since the fall of Lehman, one every three trading days!

Perhaps this explains why with 572 rate cuts in the rear view mirror, which have succeeded in pushing global stock markets to record highs and yet have failed to either unleash the "wealth effect" for the rest of us, to stimulate inflation, or send US GDP into a stable, 3%+ growth trend, in fact culminating with the most recent GDP contraction during the so-called recovery (at least until all negative data is revised positively), one can see why the Fed is just a little worried about breaking a trend that has been working... if only to create the illusion of paper wealth for a select few.

P.S. the number above of course does not account for the $13 trillion in direct liquidity injections central banks have conducted since 2008, which have flowed through directly into both the bond and the stock market, leading to unprecedented bubble in both asset classes.

[Fenix]

Housing Recovery - Real Or Memorex
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/21/2015 - 13:11

The rising risk to the housing recovery story lies in the Fed's ability to continue to keep interest rates suppressed. It is important to remember that individuals "buy payments" rather than houses. With each tick higher in mortgage rates so goes the monthly mortgage payment. With wages remaining suppressed, 1 out of 3 Americans no longer counted as part of the work force or drawing on a Federal subsidy, the pool of potential buyers remains tightly constrained. While there are many hopes pinned on the housing recovery as a "driver" of economic growth in 2015 and beyond - the lack of recovery in the home ownership data suggests otherwise.


Crash Contagion: Second Chinese Billionaire Wiped Out In Seconds After Stock Instacrash
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/21/2015 - 11:10

Yesterday China's richest man, Li Hejun, lost more than half his fortune when his solar company stock suddenly crashed over 50%. Overnight it happened again, and Hong Kong’s securities regulator, warned other investors to exercise "extreme caution," as Hong Kong's best-performing stocks this year are crashing in a serial, tulip-like manner. And another billionaire was promptly wiped out: Pan Sutong started the day engorged with wealth after his companies Goldin Financial and Goldin Properties had risen 300% this year. By the close he had lost 60% of his wealth!


You Know It's A Fiscal Crisis When... Republicans Raise Taxes
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/21/2015 - 10:56

"Six years after the recession ended, many U.S. states are hard pressed to balance budgets because of a sluggish recovery and their own policy decisions and in fact, thirty-two states faced budget gaps in fiscal 2015 or 2016 or both." Bloomberg reports. Indeed, state and local governments are so broke that "even Republican governors loath to raise taxes have proposed higher levies."


Public Confused Why World's Biggest Banks Admitting Criminal Fraud, Leads To Public Yawns
Submitted by Tyler D.
05/21/2015 - 10:36

It was about two years ago when we summarized all the known and confirmed rigged markets. Since then things have gone from bad to worse for believers in fair and efficient markets, with not only countless more banks now admitting they rigged Libor and FX. It all culminated with yesterday's settlement in which five of the world's biggest banks, including JPM, Citi and Barclays, agreed to plead guilty in a currency-rigging probe. And, to Bloomberg's dismay, the public yawned.