Martes 02/06/15 Ventas autos, ordenes fabricas

[Fenix]

Vale, ¿un trade de mediano plazo?
por Julian Yosovitch •Hace 1 hora

Las acciones de Vale (VALE) han mostrado una recuperación en cinco ondas desde los pisos de marzo pasado hasta los techos de mayo y desde allí el profundo ajuste hasta los valores actuales de 6.83 dólares.

En el avance inicial el mercado ha dejado una llave alcista mensual sumado a las cinco ondas de suba son considerados argumentos técnicos que fortalecen las chances de ver nuevos avances de corto plazo buscando llevar a los precios de regreso a zonas superiores. El quiebre de los 7.00 dólares habilitará nuevos avances hacia los 7.35 dólares y 8.00 dólares mas tarde e importante resistencia de mediano plazo para la acción.

Subas por encima de tales escollos implicara una señal de fortaleza de mediano y largo plazo, habilitando una continuidad alcista rumbo a los 8.50-9.00 dólares al menos.

En el caso en que las bajas queden retomadas, vemos que el mercado encuentra soporte en los 6.50 o potencialmente en los 6.20 dólares y desde donde las subas deberán quedar retomadas, tal como lo proyectado.

Solo con debilidades directas debajo de los 6.20, podremos ver un recorte mayor, siendo la zona de mínimos previos de 5.60-5.50 el nivel de contención clave junto a los mínimos de la llave alcista mensual y para que desde allí la tendencia alcista de fondo quede reanudada hacia zonas superiores. Veamos…


Petrobras Pays Up: The High Price Of Issuing A 100 Year Bond
Submitted by Tyler D.
06/02/2015 - 14:26

The scandal-surrounded, junk-rated, state-managed Brazilian oil producer Petrobras managed to successfully issue a $2.5 billion notional 100-year bond yesterday. Mainstream media is cock-a-hoop over the fact that the 'market' seemed to soak this bond up so easily and at a yield of 8.45% (which was 20-30bps below guidance) amid an order book apparently up to asround $10 billion. However, for those with some math skills, the truth is that it cost Petrobras around $380 million more than market-implied levels to successfully launch the bond (and so it should).


A 10% Correction Now Or A 20% (Or More) Bear Market Later On
Submitted by Tyler D.
06/02/2015 - 14:01

If U.S. equities feel brittle, they should. Yes, central bank liquidity from Japan and Europe may well push global equity markets higher. But what we really need is a pullback – that classic 10% correction that flushes out weak hands, reestablishes the discipline of “Risk” in the “Risk-Return” equation, and shows capital markets how to do more than just follow central bank liquidity. So watch June’s price action in U.S. stocks very carefully, because this process needs to start now. The bull market that began in March 2009 is now an ancient bovine indeed. After all, better 10% now than 20% or more later in the year. The first is inconvenient. The second is unwelcomed.

[Fenix]

Bernanke On China Power Grab: "All That's Happening Is Congress' Fault"
Submitted by Tyler D.
06/02/2015 - 13:20

“The US Congress is largely at fault for all that’s happening,” the former chairman of the Federal Reserve said in Hong Kong on Tuesday. What’s interesting here is the tendency for Americans to view the AIIB as something that was ultimately created by the US — even if only inadvertently.


Who's On The Other Side Of The Trade?
Submitted by Tyler D.
06/02/2015 - 12:58

The system is corrupt… and dangerously dysfunctional. But why does no one say so? Opinion makers such as Paul Krugman and Larry Summers misunderstand intentionally. But who speaks for the next three decades? Everyone wants more credit, more inflation, more bubbles, more subsidies, and more special privileges. Who’s on the other side of the trade?


It's Official: The "Helicopter Money" Calls Have Begun
Submitted by Tyler D.
06/02/2015 - 12:20

In April we said that "sooner or later, in order to avoid liquidation and stave off severe disinflationary pressures, someone will have to call in "Helicopter Janet" and once the cash paradropping begins well, we'll see you in the Weimar Republic." Sure enough, the semi-official calls for helicopter drone cash drops have arrived.


China Goes Full BTFD-tard: Record New Trading Account Openings Send Stocks Up 16% In 2 Days
Submitted by Tyler D.
06/02/2015 - 12:17

After scaring millions of freshly created stock market speculators with a 10% 'correction' last week, it appears the PBOC's wealth-effect-creating, fix-the-leverage-overhang-with-temporary-stock-exuberance strategy was put into action with a record-smashing 4.4mm new accounts opened. Since Friday's lows, CHINEXT - China's tech-focused index - is up an astounding 16% (the largest ever 2-day swing). The Shenzhen Composite has also soared over 12% to fresh highs but we note the broadest-based Shanghai Composite has yet to make it back to last week's highs (even though it is up 9% from last week's lows).


Hacked Emails Expose George Soros As Ukraine Puppet-Master
Submitted by Tyler D.
06/02/2015 - 11:13

Just days after George Soros warned that World War 3 was imminent unless Washington backed down to China on IMF currency basket inclusion, the hacker collective CyberBerkut has exposed the billionaire as the real puppet-master behind the scenes in Ukraine. In 3 stunning documents, allegedly hacked from email correspondence between the hedge fund manager and Ukraine President Poroshenko, Soros lays out "A short and medium term comprehensive strategy for the new Ukraine," expresses his confidence that the US should provide Ukraine with lethal military assistance, “with same level of sophistication in defense weapons to match the level of opposing force," and finally explained Poroshenko's "first priority must be to regain control of financial markets," which he assures the President could be helped by The Fed adding "I am ready to call Jack Lew of the US Treasury to sound him out about the swap agreement."


Albert Edwards: Yen Collapse Will Lead To "New Round Of Currency Turmoil", Deflation In US And Eurozone
Submitted by Tyler D.
06/02/2015 - 10:55

One look at FX trading this morning and all one can see is surging volatility and, for lack of a better word, turmoil. Which is precisely what Albert Edwards said would happen in his latest note overnight (released just as the USDJPY briefly breached 125) in which he observes that the Yen has now fully broken its 30-year support and predicts that "a new round of currency turmoil" is beginning.


A Bubble On Thin Ice
Submitted by Tyler D.
06/02/2015 - 10:29

The current asset bubble depends on a number of perceptions that could easily be put to the test by unexpected developments. There is a widespread consensus on a number of issues. This includes the belief that the economy will strengthen, that the emergence of “price inflation” is practically impossible, that “QE” will always guarantee rising asset prices, and that central banks have everything under control. Now we learn that in addition to this, a surprisingly large number of traders has no experience beyond the ZIRP & QE era of recent years. Meanwhile, the market’s underpinnings in terms of liquidity exhibit numerous weaknesses.

[Fenix]

China May Double Down On Debt Swap As ABS Issuance Stumbles
Submitted by Tyler D.
06/01/2015 - 22:00

China may raise the quota on a critical debt swap plan by as much as CNY1 trillion, underscoring how important its success is both in terms of kicking the can for the country's heavily-indebted local governments and in terms of jumpstarting the credit creation machine. Meanwhile, an effort to encourage ABS issuance is sputtering amid rising NPLs.

[Comodoro]

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