por admin » Mar Oct 12, 2010 9:59 pm
Las exportaciones de China aumentaron el 25.1% en Setiembre, su trade surplus fue de $16.9 billones. Las importaciones subieron 24.1%
China Has $16.9 Billion Trade Surplus After Exports Rise 25% in September
By Bloomberg News - Oct 12, 2010 10:30 PM ET
China’s exports rose 25.1 percent in September from a year earlier as imports climbed 24.1 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $16.88 billion. Photographer: Thomas Lee/Bloomberg
Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC). Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
China’s exports rose 25.1 percent in September from a year earlier as imports climbed 24.1 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $16.88 billion. Photographer: Thomas Lee/Bloomberg
China, the world’s biggest exporter, posted a $16.9 billion trade surplus for September, capping the largest quarterly excess since the financial crisis in 2008 as pressure mounts for a stronger yuan.
Exports rose 25.1 percent from a year earlier and imports climbed 24.1 percent, the customs bureau said on its website today. The surplus compares with the $17.8 billion median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. In August, the excess was $20 billion.
European and U.S. officials argue that a stronger Chinese currency would aid the global recovery by stoking demand within the nation and reducing international economic imbalances. Yuan forwards surged to the highest level in more than two years this week on speculation that Premier Wen Jiabao’s government will yield to foreign pressure.
“As the trade surplus remains elevated, China may allow the yuan to appreciate faster on worsening trade tensions,” said Lu Ting, a Hong Kong-based economist at Bank of America- Merrill Lynch, before today’s release. A slowdown in year-on- year export growth is partly due to “an abnormally high comparison base,” Lu said.
Imports rose to a record value of $128.1 billion, limiting the surplus to the smallest in five months, while exports were $145 billion. The quarterly trade excess was about $65.6 billion.
The export increase was less than the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey for a 26 percent gain, and compared with a 34.4 percent jump in August. Import growth was less than the median forecast for a 25 percent advance following a 35.2 percent climb in August.
Global Demand
“China’s surplus may gradually narrow as the nation’s sustained growth momentum boosts imports and external demand wanes amid a slowdown in developed economies,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Hong Kong-based economist and strategist at Credit Agricole, before today’s release. Kowalczyk said smaller surpluses as a proportion of gross domestic product imply slower gains in the yuan.
The U.S. Senate will consider legislation that would allow duties to be imposed on Chinese imports because of the nation’s failure to allow bigger currency gains, according to Senator Charles Schumer of New York.
The yuan has gained more than 2 percent since the government in June stopped pegging the currency to the greenback after almost two years. Non-deliverable yuan forwards traded at 6.4514 per dollar in Hong Kong as of 8:25 a.m. today, before the data were released, suggesting a gain of a further 3 percent in the next 12 months.
Currency Devaluations
Debate about competitive devaluations dominated International Monetary Fund meetings last week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner renewed his call for China to let its currency rise and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who chairs a panel of euro-area finance ministers, said the yuan is “more than undervalued.”
In contrast, Chinese central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said his nation needs to avoid the “shock therapy” of excessive yuan appreciation and “very fast” gains probably wouldn’t end global economic imbalances. Appreciation of 20 percent to 40 percent would exacerbate Chinese unemployment and cause social upheaval, according to Premier Wen.
China’s economy has rebounded from the global recession, with the Shanghai Composite Index yesterday entering a so-called bull market, rising 20 percent from a July low. The measure remains down for 2010.
Investors and companies are paying a record premium to obtain yuan in Hong Kong’s offshore market, taking advantage of looser restrictions to stock up on a currency appreciating at the fastest pace in five years.
‘Be Patient’
The yuan in Hong Kong closed yesterday at 6.5400 per dollar, 2 percent more than the 6.6734 spot rate in Shanghai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The world “has to be patient” at the pace of yuan gains, Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University, wrote in a commentary published by Bloomberg News yesterday.
“Ideally, China should spend the next eight to 10 years slowly raising the value of the yuan while boosting wages and interest rates, and limiting credit growth,” Pettis said. “It can’t do any of these things too quickly without undermining growth and causing unemployment to surge.”
--Li Yanping. With assistance from Jay Wang in Singapore. Editors: Paul Panckhurst