Lunes 20/07/15 Subasta de bonos

[Fenix]

La volatilidad está en su nivel más bajo de este año: ¿y ahora qué?

Lunes, 20 de Julio del 2015 - 14:32:00

La volatilidad de los mercados financieros alcanzó su punto más bajo en dos años y medio el viernes. ¿Es esto una señal para relajarse en las vacaciones de verano, o una calma antes de la tormenta?

El Vix, o el índice de volatilidad del Chicago Board Options Exchange, cerró el viernes en 11,95, el nivel más bajo desde el 5 de diciembre de 2012.

Estos niveles son bastante raros.

Analizando los datos del Vix que se remontan a 1990, el índice ha cerrado por debajo de 12 puntos en 537 de 6.434 días de cotización, o el 8,2 por ciento de las veces. En contraste, el Vix ha cerrado por encima de 30 puntos 578 días de negociación. El nivel medio de los últimos 25 años es de 19,8 puntos.

Así que este es un nivel muy bajo en términos históricos, y si bien no es imposible que se mantenga en estos niveles durante meses (incluso un año), la idea de una reversión a la media en la volatilidad causa preocupación.

Pero algunas de las mejores razones para un repunte ya han pasado. A principios de julio, la combinación de un posible Grexit y la venta masiva de acciones en China provocó que el Vix subiera a 20,05, pero ese no fue aún el punto más alto de este año (fue un nivel intradiario de 23,43 a mediados de enero). Por otra parte, desde el máximo de julio, la volatilidad se ha reducido en un 40 por ciento, y el índice cayó por sexta sesión consecutiva el viernes.


Los índices de volatilidad miden la volatilidad implícita de las opciones sobre un índice bursátil, que en el caso del Vix es el S&P 500. Los bajos niveles de volatilidad implican un menor riesgo de grandes movimientos positivos o negativos en el índice durante los próximos 30 días.

El año pasado, el Vix negoció por debajo de 12 durante 40 sesiones (cerrando en un mínimo anual de 10,32 el 3 de julio), y vale la pena señalar que el índice pasó alrededor de un tercio de 2005 y la mitad de 2006 por debajo de ese nivel. Pero todos sabemos lo que pasó después de eso.

Fuentes: Financial Times

[Fenix]

14:58 Crece el club fan de la libra esterlina
Para muchos fondos, parece que la compra de la libra esterlina es el único juego en la ciudad. Dada la fuerte subida de libra en los últimos tiempos, no debería ser una sorpresa que la moneda esté atrayendo a nuevos fans.

Recordemos que la semana pasada, el gobernador del Banco de Inglaterra Mark Carney dejo caer señales que apuntaban a que las tasas podrían comenzar a subir a finales de este año o principios del que viene.

Como se puede ver en el gráfico adjunto de ANZ, a partir de datos de la Commodity Futures Trading Commission, los traders especuladores están completamente enamorados de la libra. Los números de la CFTC no cubren todo el mercadode divisas , ni mucho menos, pero sí dan una buena dirección de lo que están haciendo los fondos en su conjunto.

Además, ANZ señala que las apuestas contra el Dólar de Nueva Zelanda han alcanzado una escala sin precedentes. Eso podría ayudar a generar un fuerte cierre de cortos en los próximos días.

[Fenix]

Los datos económicos vuelven a centrar el protagonismo

Deutsche Bank espera un PIB en la euzona del 0,5% trimestral
Lunes, 20 de Julio del 2015 - 15:25:00

Los datos económicos vuelven a centrar el protagonismo. Esta semana los más importantes en EEUU vienen del sector inmobiliario, con las cifras de ventas de viviendas de segunda mano (martes), y de viviendas nuevas (jueves).

La recuperación de este sector se ha convertido en uno de las claves para el crecimiento de EEUU este año. Y las cifras del pasado viernes son alentadoras, con la fuerte subida del número de viviendas iniciadas y de los permisos de construcción en junio (este último dato se sitúa en máximos de 8 años).

Los analistas de Deutsche Bank creen que el primer semestre se habría cerrado en EEUU con un crecimiento más alto de lo previsto. Según la última cifra publicada por la oficina estadística de este país, el 1T15 se cerró con una contracción de la actividad del -0,2% anualizado, mucho menos de lo que se esperaba. Creen que en el 2T15 el crecimiento se habría situado en el 2,5% anualizado, y ello pese a las pobres cifras de ventas minoristas de junio. Hay que recordar que dichas ventas sólo suponen un 25% de la cifra total de consumo privado que se calcula en el PIB, mientras que el gasto en servicios, que supone un 75%, estaríamos mostrando cifras mucho más elevadas. Además, hay que tener en cuenta la aportación positiva prevista en el PIB de las exportaciones y de la construcción.

[Fenix]

¿Dónde poner el dinero?


Lunes, 20 de Julio del 2015 - 15:52:00

Uff…por poco. Y el caso es que tampoco podemos dar por finalizadas las Crisis de Grecia y de los mercados en China. Pero, ya nos conocemos bien. Somos expertos en vivir en situaciones de calma tensa.

Los inversores se han acostumbrado a obtener lo mejor de las decisiones de “aplazar decisiones” por nuestras autoridades. Al final, siempre dar más tiempo para que problemas, en muchos casos estructurales, se resuelvan. En otros casos, el paso del tiempo puede ser una solución legítima si finalmente es utilizada como tal. Pero esto no está siendo muy habitual durante la Crisis.

Considerando todo lo anterior, especialmente que este periodo de calma puede durar entre 2-6 meses, la cuestión es clara: ¿dónde invertimos? Pues la respuesta en nuestra opinión también es evidente: en bolsa. Y nos gustan especialmente las bolsas de países desarrollados. De hecho, somos neutrales (en algunos casos incluso negativos) para las bolsas emergentes. No es una cuestión de precio relativo; más bien es el riesgo asumido con estas posiciones. Neutral en deuda, con preferencia por el mercado USA frente al resto. Y vendidos de crédito, aunque en Europa neutral (el ECB manda). Neutrales también en commodities, aunque reconozco que metales nos gustan por los bajos precios y mejora macro prevista.


¿No acaban de verlo del todo? En parte les entiendo: peores perspectivas macro y bancos centrales enviando mensajes de normalidad. No, no parece un escenario muy apropiado para tomar riesgo. Pero, también piensen que los precios de los activos son altos pero no excesivos (bolsa), la desaceleración económica se apoya por el momento en mayor medida en las economías emergentes frente a las desarrolladas y no debemos generalizar la normalización de tipos de la Fed/BOE cuando aún esperamos que, en conjunto, los bancos centrales a nivel mundial sigan aumentando su compra de activos. Liderados por el ECB, BOJ y probablemente también el Banco Central de China. Dinero, dinero. Ya saben de lo que hablo.

Aquí tienen el comportamiento de los activos durante el último mes y cómo se hubiera comportado nuestra estrategia (medio plazo) en este escenario. Sean magnánimos, aunque en el fondo hemos salido más o menos bien. Como imagino que les ha ocurrido a ustedes. Cuestión de confiar en que, al final, nuestras autoridades se harán cargo de las dificultades y tomarán por tanto las medidas más apropiadas….a corto plazo.


José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

[Fenix]

China’s Total Gold Holdings Much Higher - Owns Gold In SAFE and CIC
Posted by: GoldCore
Post date: 07/20/2015 - 14:53
Many analysts believe the officially reported 1,660 tonnes to be an understatement given the enormous volumes of gold that have been passing through Hong Kong - and through Shanghai in more recent...



95% Of The Real Estate Market In Greece Is "All Cash"
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/20/2015 - 17:29

"At least 50% of real estate agents have closed down."

"The market is only those who can afford to pay cash."

[Fenix]

The Case Of China’s Missing Gold
Submitted by Tyler D.

07/20/2015 - 18:04

Chinese Gold reserves jump 604 tons from 1,054 tons last reported in 2009 to 1,658 tons. Many gold observers ask: "Is that it"? Since 2009 China has mined over 2,000 tons of gold and imported over 3,300 tons of gold through Hong Kong*. Where did it all go?

[Fenix]

42 Billion Reasons Why Putin's Time May Be Running Out
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/20/2015 - 19:30

Russian municipal bond risk is surging once again (at 6-week highs) heading towards crisis-levels as Bloomberg reports numerous regions (including Chukotka - across from Alaska, Belgorod -near Ukraine, and three North Caucus republics) are prompting concerns as debt-to-revenue levels top 100% (144% in the case of Chukotka). The clock is ticking for President Vladimir Putin to defuse a situation he set off in 2012 with decrees to raise social spending. That contributed to a doubling in the debt load of Russia’s more than 80 regions to 2.4 trillion rubles ($42 billion) in the past five years and it all rolls within the next two to three years.

[Fenix]

Why America's First National Supermarket Chain Just Filed For Bankruptcy, Again
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/20/2015 - 17:55

If the US economy is truly firing on all four cylinders, then how are events such as the repeat bankruptcy of America's first national supermarket chain, supposed to happen?

[Fenix]

Last Night's Gold Slam So Furious It Halted The Market Not Once But Twice, And The Funniest "Explanation" Yet
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/20/2015 - 15:35

Yesterday, just before the Chinese market opened, precious metals but mostly gold, flash crashed in milliseconds with a violent urgency never before seen. We documented the unprecedented event last night, but for those who missed it, the following chart from Nanex clearly lays out just how sudden the "out of nowhere" selling was, which led to not one but two 20-second halts in the gold futures market spaced out precisely 30 seconds apart as a result of a Velocity Logic (or lack thereof) event.

[Fenix]

Wall Street's Incessant Rose-Colored Glasses
Submitted by Tyler D.07/20/2015 - 12:59

The power, if not necessarily the Truth, resides primarily with the bulls right now or at least it does in certain parts of the market. The NASDAQ broke out last week to new highs but the S&P 500 and even the more speculative Russell 2000 did not. The market’s advance continues to narrow, to concentrate among fewer and fewer names. Bulls will tell you that this is just a pause and the advance will broaden out. And if enough people believe that and there isn’t any convincing reason to sell, they might be right for a while. But at some point the rose colored glasses will come off and someone might wonder aloud why Celgene paid $7 billion for a company with trailing 12 month revenue of $4.5 million. Someone might wonder why Netflix is worth $48 billion and CBS is only worth $27 billion with more than twice the revenue, better margins, a higher ROE and the ability to produce positive cash flow. Until then it’s just a dream within a dream and somebody keeps hitting snooze on the alarm clock.



Obama's Goals For Middle East Hinge On Putin
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/20/2015 - 11:57

Even after a few weeks have passed, the unexpected visit of the Saudi Deputy Crown Prince to the St. Petersburg Economic Forum still has a lot of people scratching their heads. The news is full of widespread and contradictory theories, while questions abound. Why had the Saudis accepted an invitation from a country sanctioned by the U.S., its oldest and strongest ally? It is still a bit early for all the pieces to neatly fit together but now, after the dust has settled somewhat, a pattern seems to be emerging that may explain the situation.

[Fenix]

Q1 GAAP EPS Lowest Since 2012: The S&P500 Is Now Trading Over 20x PE Using Unadjusted Earnings
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/20/2015 - 11:35

Putting it all together, here is the LTM GAAP and non-GAAP EPS, and the resultant P/E ratios for the S&P on a 2015 forward basis (using Deutsche Bank's optimistic growth forecasts for the rest of 2015 which have Q4 2015 GAAP EPS projected to grow 23% from lastt Q4). As of this moment, with the S&P500 at 2130, the S&P 500 is trading at 18.1x forward (non-GAAP) PE based on 2015P EPS of 118, and an unprecedented 20.3x GAAP PE if one uses the far more realistic 105 GAAP EPS.

[Fenix]

IBM Revenue Collapse Is Now Worse Than During Peak Of The Financial Crisis
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/20/2015 - 16:23

The reason IBM stock is currently sliding and dragging down the broader Dow Jones future with it is that with Q2 revenues of $20.8 billion, the company not only missed expectations, but was a plunge of 13.4% from a year ago: a drop that surpasses the biggest revenue drop recorded during the peak of the financial crisis! This is also 13 consecutive quarter of declining Y/Y revenues.

[Fenix]

Mexican Peso Plunges To 16/USD - Record Lows
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/20/2015 - 10:11

The Mexican Peso has devalued 23.5% in the last 12 months, breaking 16.00/USD for the first time in history today...



The Song Remains The Same
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/20/2015 - 09:21

We love reading quotes from Hussman in 2000 and 2007. The air is getting pretty thin up here. A stock market driven by Google, Apple, Netflix and a few other tech darlings with no earnings does not make a market. Time is running out for the bulls. The same morons on CNBC ridiculed and scorned his facts then and they scorn and ridicule him now. Do we trust Jim Cramer and Steve Liesman or John Hussman? Guess.

[Fenix]

Where Next For Precious Metals: This Is What The Charts Say
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/20/2015 10:49 -0400


Following last night's flash-crash dump across the precious metals complex, with gold tumbling to briefly test the multi-decade channel at $1080 levels, SocGen's technical analysis team digs in to understand key levels for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, concerned about further weakness ahead.


Gold: Long-dated indicators hint at further weakness ahead.

Gold broke below the last November and March lows (1146/1130 levels) hence confirming the Head and Shoulders formation previously highlighted. This downside breakout accelerated the down move towards 1080 levels which represent the median support line of the down sloping channel within which Gold has drifted along over the past 2 years (1268/98-1080/1042). More importantly, 1080 happens to be the multi-decade channel limit above which it breached in 2009 and the 50% retracement of the uptrend from 1999 low to 2011 high.

Although Gold is holding the channel median support, RSI depicts an increase in bearish momentum resulting in the break below the up sloping channel in force since 2 years.

This suggests the down trend could extend further towards January 2008 highs of 1045/1030 but also, from an Elliott wave standpoint, the projected target for the 5th wave of the broad bearish cycle that started at 2011 highs.

Short-term, in light of daily RSI which is sustaining a 1-year low (blue line) a rebound looks under way. However, it should be viewed as corrective so long the Head and Shoulder pattern persists i.e. 1130/1146 levels hold.

Silver: probing lower part of broad consolidation at $14.50/14.20.

Having broken below a massive upward channel last year, Silver has been undergoing a broad consolidation within limits fixed by 2013 lows of 18.50/18.65 on upside and graphical levels of 14.50/14.20 as support. It is now once again probing the lower part of this consolidation zone which also corresponds with the confluence of a couple of descending channels on daily chart the 50% retracement of the uptrend from 2001 low to 2011 high (log).

Indeed, the correction in Silver prices since May appears to be now accelerating. However, monthly RSI still sustains above a multiyear graphical floor while daily indicator, here stochastic is diverging positively which suggest 14.50/14.20 as key support. It will take a definite close below to signal further downtrend. In such a scenario, Silver will drift initially towards 13.80 and probably even towards multi month descending channel at 13.35/13.15. Rebound from current levels is likely to face resistance at recent highs of 15.75, also the 38.2% retracement from May highs.

Platinum: accelerating the down trend post downside

break below the 15-year trend line support ($1070/89). The earlier highlighted levels of 1070/89, the down sloping channel since 2011 intercepting the 15-year trend line support (orange dash), have markedly been broken. Thus, the downtrend has gained traction recently and Platinum is now closing in on 2004 levels of 955/950 which also corresponds to the descending channel on daily chart.

Momentum indicator gives credence to price breakdown and possibility of further downtrend: on a monthly time frame RSI is piercing below a horizontal floor while on a daily time frame it has breached an upward support line.

Short term recovery, if any, is likely to face resistance at 1010/1015. 1070/1089 will remain a key resistance.

Palladium: change in long-term trend post break below a multi-year support line.

Palladium breached a steep rising trend line (since 2009 lows) and a change in trend has operated as Palladium has been falling ever since within a bearish channel (745-595/585). Weekly MACD, although testing 2011 levels, remains well into negative territory i.e. below the 0 mark which also coincides with the validation level of a 2-year Double Top. Palladium is approaching near a first graphic floor at 595/585, the lower band of the moderately ascending channel in place since 2011 and 2008 highs which crosses the aforementioned bearish one.

With daily Stochastic closing in on a multi-month support, a short-term rebound to the steep bearish channel resistance at 668 cannot be ruled out. However, 595/585 could give way soon thereafter and the down trend could fetch 2012/2011 lows of 570/565 prior to 535 the 50% retracement of the uptrend from 2009 low to 2014 high.


Source: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

[Fenix]

Is Australia The Next Greece?
Submitted by Tyler D.
07/19/2015 - 21:45

Australian consumers are more worried about the medium term outlook than at the peak of the financial crisis, and rightfully so. As The Telegraph reports, by the end of the first quarter this year, Australia’s net foreign debt had climbed to a record $955bn, equal to an already unsustainable 60pc of gross domestic product, and is set to rise as RBA's bet that depreciation in the value of the country’s currency would help to offset the decline in its overbearing mining industry hasn’t happened to the extent they would have wished. Furthermore, as UBS explains, China's real GDP growth cycles have become an increasingly important driver of Australia's nominal GDP growth this last decade. With iron ore and coal prices plumbing new record lows, a Chinese (real) economy firing on perhaps 1 cyclinder, and equity investors reeling from China's collapse; perhaps the situation facing Australia is more like Greece than many want to admit, as Gina Rinehart, Australia’s richest woman and matriarch of Perth’s Hancock mining dynasty stunned her workers this week: accept a 10% pay cut or face redundancies.