Un gran beneficiado del colapso del petróleo
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 11:26:00
Pocas empresas industriales celebrarán el colapso de los precios del petróleo por debajo de $50 el barril tanto como los grandes fabricantes de neumáticos del mundo.
Para empresas como Bridgestone, Michelin, Goodyear, Continental y Pirelli, los bajos precios de la energía no sólo significan un caucho sintético más barato, sino también una mayor demanda ya que los usuarios conducen más.
"Estamos en un punto dulce en este momento," dijo el director financiero de Continental a los inversionistas el 4 de agosto después de anunciar que las ganancias del segundo trimestre subieran un 25 por ciento más que hace un año.
Los inversores parecen estar de acuerdo: las acciones de los cinco productores de neumáticos han subido desde que los precios del petróleo comenzaron a caer (ver gráfico adjunto).
De acuerdo con la Asociación de Fabricantes de Caucho, se necesitan unos siete galones de petróleo para producir caucho sintético suficiente para hacer un neumático. El costo del crudo Brent, un referente mundial, ha caído un 51 por ciento respecto al año pasado a menos de $50 por barril.
Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
Re: Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
por Fenix » Jue Ago 13, 2015 7:05 pm
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
por Fenix » Jue Ago 13, 2015 7:06 pm
Análisis de la temporada de resultados en EE.UU., Europa y Japón
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 12:55
La publicación de resultados del segundo cuatrimestre está llegando a su fin y ya se han publicado el 88 % de los resultados en US, el 82% en Europa y el 95 % en Japón.
- US: El 74 % de las empresas del S&P500 han batido el BPA estimado en un 4%. El BPA del segundo cuatrimestre se estableció en el -3 % (yoy) y en el +4 % excluyendo el sector de la Energía. Una mayoría de las empresas (el 51 %) han decepcionado en la línea de ventas, y sin el sector de Energía las ventas año contra año estarían planas.
- Europa: El 63 % de las empresas del DJSTOXX600 publicaban BPA mejor de lo esperado, batiendo expectativas en un 8%. El BPA crece al 2% (yoy) y crece al 12% sin tener en cuenta el sector de la energía. El 67 % de las empresas bate las expectativas sobre ventas, con un crecimiento plano (yoy) sin el sector energético. Concretamente en Eurozona, el 68 % de las empresas del Eurostoxx supera el BPA estimado sorprendiendo positivamente en un 11%. El crecimiento del BPA aumenta en un 14% (yoy) y sin tener en cuenta el sector energético este crecimiento sería del 19 %. El 69 % de las empresas también supera la estimación de venta, mostrando un crecimiento del 2% sin el sector energético.
- Japón: El 63 % de las empresas Topix baten el BPA estimado, sorprendiendo al alza en un 15%, mostrando un crecimiento del BPA del +25 % (yoy). El 56 % de las empresas bate en ventas, con el crecimiento del +5 % (yoy).
Lo más interesante es el contraste a nivel de ventas entre las empresas Europeas y Estadounidenses. En la Eurozona tener al 69% de las empresas publicando ventas mejores está muy por encima de la media histórica en la Eurozona, mientras el 49% en US está cerca de la parte inferior del rango histórico de US.
Las posiciones cortas en oro/plata aumentan fuertemente
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 12:00
Ayer publicábamos un artículo donde señalábamos la huida de los fondos de cobertura de sus posiciones en oro en los últimos tres meses.
En el gráfico que publicamos hoy se muestra con claridad que los contratos cortos (posicionamientos a la baja) tanto en oro como en la plata se han elevado a un nuevo máximo histórico en las últimas semanas.
Un rebote sin confianza
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 11:39
Las bolsas europeas rebotaron el jueves después de una caída del 4 por ciento esta semana, siguiendo el comportamiento de los mercados asiáticos esta madrugada ante los esfuerzos del banco central de China para frenar el fuerte descenso del yuan que ha sacudido a los mercados de todo el mundo.
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 12:55
La publicación de resultados del segundo cuatrimestre está llegando a su fin y ya se han publicado el 88 % de los resultados en US, el 82% en Europa y el 95 % en Japón.
- US: El 74 % de las empresas del S&P500 han batido el BPA estimado en un 4%. El BPA del segundo cuatrimestre se estableció en el -3 % (yoy) y en el +4 % excluyendo el sector de la Energía. Una mayoría de las empresas (el 51 %) han decepcionado en la línea de ventas, y sin el sector de Energía las ventas año contra año estarían planas.
- Europa: El 63 % de las empresas del DJSTOXX600 publicaban BPA mejor de lo esperado, batiendo expectativas en un 8%. El BPA crece al 2% (yoy) y crece al 12% sin tener en cuenta el sector de la energía. El 67 % de las empresas bate las expectativas sobre ventas, con un crecimiento plano (yoy) sin el sector energético. Concretamente en Eurozona, el 68 % de las empresas del Eurostoxx supera el BPA estimado sorprendiendo positivamente en un 11%. El crecimiento del BPA aumenta en un 14% (yoy) y sin tener en cuenta el sector energético este crecimiento sería del 19 %. El 69 % de las empresas también supera la estimación de venta, mostrando un crecimiento del 2% sin el sector energético.
- Japón: El 63 % de las empresas Topix baten el BPA estimado, sorprendiendo al alza en un 15%, mostrando un crecimiento del BPA del +25 % (yoy). El 56 % de las empresas bate en ventas, con el crecimiento del +5 % (yoy).
Lo más interesante es el contraste a nivel de ventas entre las empresas Europeas y Estadounidenses. En la Eurozona tener al 69% de las empresas publicando ventas mejores está muy por encima de la media histórica en la Eurozona, mientras el 49% en US está cerca de la parte inferior del rango histórico de US.
Las posiciones cortas en oro/plata aumentan fuertemente
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 12:00
Ayer publicábamos un artículo donde señalábamos la huida de los fondos de cobertura de sus posiciones en oro en los últimos tres meses.
En el gráfico que publicamos hoy se muestra con claridad que los contratos cortos (posicionamientos a la baja) tanto en oro como en la plata se han elevado a un nuevo máximo histórico en las últimas semanas.
Un rebote sin confianza
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 11:39
Las bolsas europeas rebotaron el jueves después de una caída del 4 por ciento esta semana, siguiendo el comportamiento de los mercados asiáticos esta madrugada ante los esfuerzos del banco central de China para frenar el fuerte descenso del yuan que ha sacudido a los mercados de todo el mundo.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
por Fenix » Jue Ago 13, 2015 7:07 pm
Banco Popular de China tiene amplias reservas para apoyar su divisa
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 13:10
Ayer el Wall Street Journal publicaba que el Banco Popular de China había intervenido en los mercados a última hora para apoyar el yuan cuando perdía cerca del 2% frente al dólar. Al final el fixing se produjo con una pérdida del 1%.
El Banco Popular de China señaló en un comunicado que las amplias reservas de divisas extranjeras, las buenas condiciones fiscales y un sistema financiero saneado proporcionan un apoyo consistente para mantener un tipo de cambio de su divisa estable. El banco central volvió a negar que haya una base económica para una debilidad sostenida del yuan.
Al mismo tiempo, el Banco Popular de China reconoció el potencial para que una gran cantidad de capital salga de China y prometió asegurar un mayor orden en los flujos de capital transfronterizos. El banco central chino indicó que abrirá sus mercados de divisas, dominados en la actualidad por bancos chinos, a instituciones extranjeras cualificadas. Además, ampliará las horas de negociación de tipos de cambio como una medida para una mayor convergencia entre el tipo de cambio del yuan en China y el de su divisa fuera de su territorio.
¿Y si ya estamos en una tendencia bajista y aún no lo sabemos?
Carlos Montero
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 19:45:00
¿Qué pasaría si el mercado alcista en las acciones ha terminado ya y nadie se ha dado cuenta? Esta es la pregunta que se realizó en un interesante informe a clientes Andrew Lapthorne, jefe de análisis de renta variable en Societe Generale.
Creemos que es una pregunta pertinente después del comportamiento de la bolsa estadounidense y europea de las últimas jornadas. De hecho, el pasado martes el Dow Jones de Industriales desarrolló lo que en el argot técnico se denomina “cruce de la muerte”, es decir, que la media exponencial de 50 sesiones cruzó a la baja la de 200 sesiones. Esto técnicamente sugiere que podría haber empezado ya una tendencia bajista mayor, aunque los críticos hablan que es una señal con poco valor predictivo.
Pero volvamos a Lapthorne. Este analista considera que hay varias claras señales que anticipan una tendencia bajista en la renta variable estadounidense y en otras occidentales. Veamos:
- Reciente colapso en los precios de las materias primas que presagian una desaceleración económica: El cobre ha caída una quinta parte desde mayo. El petróleo baja un 25%.
- Reciente colapso en los mercados emergentes.
- Caídas en los tipos de interés a largo plazo. El rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 30 años han caído 40 puntos básicos. Las tasas de interés a largo plazo son un buen indicador de la economía. Este movimiento bajista es una señal negativa.
- Caídas en los principales indicadores de renta variable occidental, después de un largo proceso lateral.
- Incremento de las preocupaciones por la situación económica en China, y por la evolución de su divisa.
Pero lo que Lapthorne cree que es más significativo es el comportamiento de las acciones de baja calidad con respecto a las de alta calidad.
Las llamadas acciones de baja calidad históricamente han sido más sensibles a las recesiones o desaceleraciones económicas. Desde el comienzo de julio las acciones de alta calidad lo han estado haciendo claramente mejor que las acciones de baja calidad en todos los mercados de renta variable. Esto históricamente ha sido una señal fiable de que un mercado bajista está comenzando.
“Al ver el mercado de renta variable de EE.UU. a través del prima del estilo de inversión, vemos que los inversores se están posicionando exactamente como cabría esperar si se enfrentaran a una desaceleración económica”, afirma Lapthorne que añade que la tendencia alcista que EE.UU. ha vivido desde marzo de 2009, ha sido la tercera más alta desde el año 1900, sólo por detrás de las que terminaron en 1929 y 1999.
Hace poco el jefe de estrategia global de Société Générale, Albert Edwards, también se mostraba muy negativo con la evolución en el corto/medio plazo de las bolsas occidentales, y advertía de la posibilidad de un crash de mercado.
Es cierto que este tipo de llamadas bajistas se han producido durante los últimos años. Todas ellas fueron equivocadas. Pero también lo es que las señales técnicas que está mostrando ahora Wall Street no las habíamos visto desde 2011. No sé si ya se ha iniciado una fase bajista de ciclo, como apuntan estos analistas, pero sí creo que es muy probable que veamos una corrección de mayor importancia que la sufrida en los últimos años. Veremos.
Lacartadelabolsa
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 13:10
Ayer el Wall Street Journal publicaba que el Banco Popular de China había intervenido en los mercados a última hora para apoyar el yuan cuando perdía cerca del 2% frente al dólar. Al final el fixing se produjo con una pérdida del 1%.
El Banco Popular de China señaló en un comunicado que las amplias reservas de divisas extranjeras, las buenas condiciones fiscales y un sistema financiero saneado proporcionan un apoyo consistente para mantener un tipo de cambio de su divisa estable. El banco central volvió a negar que haya una base económica para una debilidad sostenida del yuan.
Al mismo tiempo, el Banco Popular de China reconoció el potencial para que una gran cantidad de capital salga de China y prometió asegurar un mayor orden en los flujos de capital transfronterizos. El banco central chino indicó que abrirá sus mercados de divisas, dominados en la actualidad por bancos chinos, a instituciones extranjeras cualificadas. Además, ampliará las horas de negociación de tipos de cambio como una medida para una mayor convergencia entre el tipo de cambio del yuan en China y el de su divisa fuera de su territorio.
¿Y si ya estamos en una tendencia bajista y aún no lo sabemos?
Carlos Montero
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 19:45:00
¿Qué pasaría si el mercado alcista en las acciones ha terminado ya y nadie se ha dado cuenta? Esta es la pregunta que se realizó en un interesante informe a clientes Andrew Lapthorne, jefe de análisis de renta variable en Societe Generale.
Creemos que es una pregunta pertinente después del comportamiento de la bolsa estadounidense y europea de las últimas jornadas. De hecho, el pasado martes el Dow Jones de Industriales desarrolló lo que en el argot técnico se denomina “cruce de la muerte”, es decir, que la media exponencial de 50 sesiones cruzó a la baja la de 200 sesiones. Esto técnicamente sugiere que podría haber empezado ya una tendencia bajista mayor, aunque los críticos hablan que es una señal con poco valor predictivo.
Pero volvamos a Lapthorne. Este analista considera que hay varias claras señales que anticipan una tendencia bajista en la renta variable estadounidense y en otras occidentales. Veamos:
- Reciente colapso en los precios de las materias primas que presagian una desaceleración económica: El cobre ha caída una quinta parte desde mayo. El petróleo baja un 25%.
- Reciente colapso en los mercados emergentes.
- Caídas en los tipos de interés a largo plazo. El rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 30 años han caído 40 puntos básicos. Las tasas de interés a largo plazo son un buen indicador de la economía. Este movimiento bajista es una señal negativa.
- Caídas en los principales indicadores de renta variable occidental, después de un largo proceso lateral.
- Incremento de las preocupaciones por la situación económica en China, y por la evolución de su divisa.
Pero lo que Lapthorne cree que es más significativo es el comportamiento de las acciones de baja calidad con respecto a las de alta calidad.
Las llamadas acciones de baja calidad históricamente han sido más sensibles a las recesiones o desaceleraciones económicas. Desde el comienzo de julio las acciones de alta calidad lo han estado haciendo claramente mejor que las acciones de baja calidad en todos los mercados de renta variable. Esto históricamente ha sido una señal fiable de que un mercado bajista está comenzando.
“Al ver el mercado de renta variable de EE.UU. a través del prima del estilo de inversión, vemos que los inversores se están posicionando exactamente como cabría esperar si se enfrentaran a una desaceleración económica”, afirma Lapthorne que añade que la tendencia alcista que EE.UU. ha vivido desde marzo de 2009, ha sido la tercera más alta desde el año 1900, sólo por detrás de las que terminaron en 1929 y 1999.
Hace poco el jefe de estrategia global de Société Générale, Albert Edwards, también se mostraba muy negativo con la evolución en el corto/medio plazo de las bolsas occidentales, y advertía de la posibilidad de un crash de mercado.
Es cierto que este tipo de llamadas bajistas se han producido durante los últimos años. Todas ellas fueron equivocadas. Pero también lo es que las señales técnicas que está mostrando ahora Wall Street no las habíamos visto desde 2011. No sé si ya se ha iniciado una fase bajista de ciclo, como apuntan estos analistas, pero sí creo que es muy probable que veamos una corrección de mayor importancia que la sufrida en los últimos años. Veremos.
Lacartadelabolsa
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
por Fenix » Jue Ago 13, 2015 7:08 pm
What China's Devaluation Means For The Future Of The Dollar
08/13/2015 17:45 -0400
Submitted by Simon Black
As the saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
(… to which George W. Bush famously added after flubbing the aphorism on live TV, “can’t fool me again!”)
For months, despite every shred of data pointing to a weaker economy, China’s currency has been strengthening.
This was really counterintuitive. When an economy is weak, its currency tends to suffer.
But that didn’t happen in China.
Even when China’s stock market suffered one of the biggest crashes in history a few weeks ago, the currency barely moved.
None of this made any sense.
Just look at Greece– problems in that single nation, one of the smallest economies in Europe, dragged down the currency used by 18 other nations in Europe to its lowest level in more than a decade.
But when problems broke in China, the renminbi actually got stronger. And party bosses insisted that they would not devalue their currency.
Fool me once.
Yesterday they showed the world what their promises really mean: nothing. And in a surprise announcement, they devalued the renminbi by roughly 2%.
2% might not sound like very much. But in currency markets, especially for a major one like China’s, 2% is a huge move.
Curiously, in the very same announcement, Chinese officials stated that they would not devalue the currency again, and that Tuesday’s move was a one-time thing.
Fool me twice.
Less than 24-hours later they did it again — a second devaluation that saw the renminbi tumble to as low as 6.57 per US dollar, a 6% decline in roughly 36 hours.
Again, this is a steep drop for a currency, and I expect that there’s more to come.
All of this raises an interesting question about the future of the US dollar.
Because if an economy as large and powerful as China’s has had to concede defeat, does this mean that “King Dollar” will rule forever?
No chance.
Remember that the dollar’s strength is derived from its status as the primary global reserve currency.
Nearly every government, commercial bank, and central bank in the world holds US dollars in reserve, and the dollar is used as the primary currency in global trade.
Whether in Saudi Arabia or South Africa, a barrel of oil is priced in US dollars. Even jets manufactured in France and sold to European airlines are priced in US dollars.
But this status is by no means written in stone. The US dollar is not the first global reserve currency, and it won’t be the last.
We can go back in time to the Byzantine solidus, or the Venetian gold ducat, or the Spanish dollar, or the British pound, and see that no reserve currency lasts forever.
Especially when its fundamentals are so poor.
The US government is insolvent. Its major institutions and pension funds are insolvent. The central bank is borderline insolvent.
These are not any wild assertions; their own financial statements admit their insolvency.
Which means that there’s nothing underpinning the dollar’s reserve status except confidence.
And confidence is very fickle. Like a high school popularity contest, it wanes and it booms.
Right now that confidence is on an upswing, primarily because every other major option looks really bad.
The euro is acting out its Oedipal complex. Japan is a complete fiscal disaster spending over 25% of tax revenue just to pay interest. And China is rapidly deteriorating.
Sure there are some outliers like the Swiss franc that are in better shape. But the market for Switzerland’s currency is far too small to absorb trillions of dollars in global capital flows.
In the beauty pageant of major currencies, the US dollar is clearly the least ugly at the moment.
And I think anyone owning dollars should look at this as a gift.
Right now we have a tremendous opportunity to sell what’s expensive and buy what’s cheap.
The dollar hasn’t been this expensive in years. And many non-dollar assets haven’t been this cheap… ever.
Here in Turkey, the lira is at its lowest level in history. The South African rand is at its lowest level in history. We wrote about Indonesia’s rupiah on Monday.
I’m looking at real estate in Colombia at the moment where US dollar buyers can pick up high quality property for less than the cost of construction.
In Chile, the cheap exchange rate and slowing economy helped our fund to recently close on a farm at $4.3 million that cost $10 million less than two years ago.
In Australia there are a number of junior mining stocks that are trading for less than the amount of cash that they have in the bank.
There are countless deals like this all over the world… especially if you’re buying in US dollars.
It’s foolish to expect that any reserve currency will last forever.
And it’s even crazier to expect a reserve currency with such pitiful fundamentals as the US dollar to last forever.
But markets are not orderly and efficient. They are chaotic.
Which means that, on rare occasions, enormous opportunities present themselves to buy high quality assets on the cheap.
That opportunity is now.
08/13/2015 17:45 -0400
Submitted by Simon Black
As the saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
(… to which George W. Bush famously added after flubbing the aphorism on live TV, “can’t fool me again!”)
For months, despite every shred of data pointing to a weaker economy, China’s currency has been strengthening.
This was really counterintuitive. When an economy is weak, its currency tends to suffer.
But that didn’t happen in China.
Even when China’s stock market suffered one of the biggest crashes in history a few weeks ago, the currency barely moved.
None of this made any sense.
Just look at Greece– problems in that single nation, one of the smallest economies in Europe, dragged down the currency used by 18 other nations in Europe to its lowest level in more than a decade.
But when problems broke in China, the renminbi actually got stronger. And party bosses insisted that they would not devalue their currency.
Fool me once.
Yesterday they showed the world what their promises really mean: nothing. And in a surprise announcement, they devalued the renminbi by roughly 2%.
2% might not sound like very much. But in currency markets, especially for a major one like China’s, 2% is a huge move.
Curiously, in the very same announcement, Chinese officials stated that they would not devalue the currency again, and that Tuesday’s move was a one-time thing.
Fool me twice.
Less than 24-hours later they did it again — a second devaluation that saw the renminbi tumble to as low as 6.57 per US dollar, a 6% decline in roughly 36 hours.
Again, this is a steep drop for a currency, and I expect that there’s more to come.
All of this raises an interesting question about the future of the US dollar.
Because if an economy as large and powerful as China’s has had to concede defeat, does this mean that “King Dollar” will rule forever?
No chance.
Remember that the dollar’s strength is derived from its status as the primary global reserve currency.
Nearly every government, commercial bank, and central bank in the world holds US dollars in reserve, and the dollar is used as the primary currency in global trade.
Whether in Saudi Arabia or South Africa, a barrel of oil is priced in US dollars. Even jets manufactured in France and sold to European airlines are priced in US dollars.
But this status is by no means written in stone. The US dollar is not the first global reserve currency, and it won’t be the last.
We can go back in time to the Byzantine solidus, or the Venetian gold ducat, or the Spanish dollar, or the British pound, and see that no reserve currency lasts forever.
Especially when its fundamentals are so poor.
The US government is insolvent. Its major institutions and pension funds are insolvent. The central bank is borderline insolvent.
These are not any wild assertions; their own financial statements admit their insolvency.
Which means that there’s nothing underpinning the dollar’s reserve status except confidence.
And confidence is very fickle. Like a high school popularity contest, it wanes and it booms.
Right now that confidence is on an upswing, primarily because every other major option looks really bad.
The euro is acting out its Oedipal complex. Japan is a complete fiscal disaster spending over 25% of tax revenue just to pay interest. And China is rapidly deteriorating.
Sure there are some outliers like the Swiss franc that are in better shape. But the market for Switzerland’s currency is far too small to absorb trillions of dollars in global capital flows.
In the beauty pageant of major currencies, the US dollar is clearly the least ugly at the moment.
And I think anyone owning dollars should look at this as a gift.
Right now we have a tremendous opportunity to sell what’s expensive and buy what’s cheap.
The dollar hasn’t been this expensive in years. And many non-dollar assets haven’t been this cheap… ever.
Here in Turkey, the lira is at its lowest level in history. The South African rand is at its lowest level in history. We wrote about Indonesia’s rupiah on Monday.
I’m looking at real estate in Colombia at the moment where US dollar buyers can pick up high quality property for less than the cost of construction.
In Chile, the cheap exchange rate and slowing economy helped our fund to recently close on a farm at $4.3 million that cost $10 million less than two years ago.
In Australia there are a number of junior mining stocks that are trading for less than the amount of cash that they have in the bank.
There are countless deals like this all over the world… especially if you’re buying in US dollars.
It’s foolish to expect that any reserve currency will last forever.
And it’s even crazier to expect a reserve currency with such pitiful fundamentals as the US dollar to last forever.
But markets are not orderly and efficient. They are chaotic.
Which means that, on rare occasions, enormous opportunities present themselves to buy high quality assets on the cheap.
That opportunity is now.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
por Fenix » Jue Ago 13, 2015 7:09 pm
Fedex: el MACD se sitúa por debajo de su línea de señal
CMC Markets
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 14:07
Punto de rotación se sitúa en 171.8.
Preferencia: la caída se mantiene siempre que la resistencia se sitúe en 171.8.
Escenario alternativo: por encima de 171.8, objetivo 177 y 180.
Técnicamente, el índice de fuerza relativa (RSI) se encuentra por debajo de su zona de neutralidad de 50. El indicador de convergencia/divergencia de medias móviles (MACD) se sitúa por debajo de su línea de señal y es negativo.
Asimismo, la acción se sitúa por debajo de su media móvil de 20 y 50 días (se sitúa a 169.03 y 172.74 respectivamente).
La tumultuosa década del yuan en un gráfico
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 14:31:00
"El banco central de China ha cogido a los mercados globales por sorpresa con un cambio histórico en la gestión del yuan", escribe el jefe de Inteligencia de Asia en Bloomberg el economista Tom Orlik.
El Banco Popular de China, devaluó su moneda el martes, después de que el yuan descendiera un 1,9% frente al dólar. Y a continuación, el miércoles, el banco modificó su tipo de cambio oficial, una vez más, provocando otra caída del 1,9%.
Orlik señaló que al cierre de la sesión del miércoles, el yuan cayó a 6,39, por debajo del cierre del lunes de 6,2 - que es un nivel no visto desde el verano de 2012.
Y eso podría no ser el final: El Banco Popular de China señaló que sería más práctico con el tipo de cambio, lo que podría significar que el yuan siguiera bajando.
Pero antes de ver cualquier depreciación adicional, hay que echar un vistazo al gráfico de Orlik detallando los importantes movimientos del yuan en la última década desde que el Banco Popular de China rompió la paridad con el dólar en 2005.
CMC Markets
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 14:07
Punto de rotación se sitúa en 171.8.
Preferencia: la caída se mantiene siempre que la resistencia se sitúe en 171.8.
Escenario alternativo: por encima de 171.8, objetivo 177 y 180.
Técnicamente, el índice de fuerza relativa (RSI) se encuentra por debajo de su zona de neutralidad de 50. El indicador de convergencia/divergencia de medias móviles (MACD) se sitúa por debajo de su línea de señal y es negativo.
Asimismo, la acción se sitúa por debajo de su media móvil de 20 y 50 días (se sitúa a 169.03 y 172.74 respectivamente).
La tumultuosa década del yuan en un gráfico
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 14:31:00
"El banco central de China ha cogido a los mercados globales por sorpresa con un cambio histórico en la gestión del yuan", escribe el jefe de Inteligencia de Asia en Bloomberg el economista Tom Orlik.
El Banco Popular de China, devaluó su moneda el martes, después de que el yuan descendiera un 1,9% frente al dólar. Y a continuación, el miércoles, el banco modificó su tipo de cambio oficial, una vez más, provocando otra caída del 1,9%.
Orlik señaló que al cierre de la sesión del miércoles, el yuan cayó a 6,39, por debajo del cierre del lunes de 6,2 - que es un nivel no visto desde el verano de 2012.
Y eso podría no ser el final: El Banco Popular de China señaló que sería más práctico con el tipo de cambio, lo que podría significar que el yuan siguiera bajando.
Pero antes de ver cualquier depreciación adicional, hay que echar un vistazo al gráfico de Orlik detallando los importantes movimientos del yuan en la última década desde que el Banco Popular de China rompió la paridad con el dólar en 2005.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
por Fenix » Jue Ago 13, 2015 7:10 pm
Bono EEUU septiembre. Se revierte el movimiento alcista
Análisis técnico SEB
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 14:58
El movimiento por encima de la banda de Bollinger de 55 sesiones aparentemente estaba estirando la goma demasiado y en consecuencia el precio corrigió.
Con el movimiento por encima de 127-23 ahora totalmente invertido y con una divergencia bajista, es probable que el rebote haya terminado.
Resistencias 128-07 128-13+ 128-22 128-17+
Soportes 127-18 127-01 126-30+ 126-17+
El yuan se depreciará hasta al menos 6,50 contra el dólar
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 15:52:00
La moneda de China ha alcanzado un mínimo de cuatro años frente al dólar tras la reciente devaluación. Y podría seguir cayendo según los analistas de Credit Suisse.
Credit Suisse ve como primer objetivo del dólar yuan la zona de 6,5. Estos son los puntos principales de Credit Suisse:
- Ahora proyectamos unos días de devaluación sustancial, seguido de una declaración de las autoridades señalando que el yuan ha alcanzado su valor justo en base a una cesta ponderada.
- Nos inclinamos a creer que Beijing puede dibujar una línea en torno al nivel 6.5.
- Son malas noticias para los activos asiáticos y los productos básicos, pero eso es lo que Pekín quiere.
- La divisa china había sido conocida como una moneda estable y con un sesgo de apreciación en la última década. Esa percepción parece estar cambiando, afectando a los precios de los activos.
Análisis técnico SEB
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 14:58
El movimiento por encima de la banda de Bollinger de 55 sesiones aparentemente estaba estirando la goma demasiado y en consecuencia el precio corrigió.
Con el movimiento por encima de 127-23 ahora totalmente invertido y con una divergencia bajista, es probable que el rebote haya terminado.
Resistencias 128-07 128-13+ 128-22 128-17+
Soportes 127-18 127-01 126-30+ 126-17+
El yuan se depreciará hasta al menos 6,50 contra el dólar
Jueves, 13 de Agosto del 2015 - 15:52:00
La moneda de China ha alcanzado un mínimo de cuatro años frente al dólar tras la reciente devaluación. Y podría seguir cayendo según los analistas de Credit Suisse.
Credit Suisse ve como primer objetivo del dólar yuan la zona de 6,5. Estos son los puntos principales de Credit Suisse:
- Ahora proyectamos unos días de devaluación sustancial, seguido de una declaración de las autoridades señalando que el yuan ha alcanzado su valor justo en base a una cesta ponderada.
- Nos inclinamos a creer que Beijing puede dibujar una línea en torno al nivel 6.5.
- Son malas noticias para los activos asiáticos y los productos básicos, pero eso es lo que Pekín quiere.
- La divisa china había sido conocida como una moneda estable y con un sesgo de apreciación en la última década. Esa percepción parece estar cambiando, afectando a los precios de los activos.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
por Fenix » Jue Ago 13, 2015 7:12 pm
Goldman Is Officially A Bank: Bailed Out Hedge Fund Will Allow Muppets To Give Their Savings To Lloyd Blankfein
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/13/2015 16:34 -0400
The last time former Goldman employee and then Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson bailed out the hedge fund known as Goldman Sachs, and its closest peers (but not its biggest fixed income competitor Lehman Brothers of course), even the traditionally confused American public pushed back on the structure of the bailout which converted the Goldman holding company into an FDIC-insured company, which led many to ask: just where are Goldman's deposits?
The answer, of course, was nowhere, so perhaps in anticipation of the logical pushback against its second, upcoming bailout which would see the taxpayer-backed depositor insurance company once again provide trillions in cash to banks as well as the glorified hedge funds such as Goldman, the firm moments ago decided to do something it has never done before: become an actual bank with checking accounts and such.
It did so by announcing moments ago it would acquire GE's Capital Bank's online deposit platform, as in online checking accounts, including $8 billion in deposits and $8 billion in brokered CDs, thereby providing Goldman with a virtually costless source of $16 billion in funds. Costless, because under ZIRP, Goldman pays precisely zero interest for the unsecured liability also known as a deposit.
from the PR:
Goldman Sachs Bank USA (“GS Bank”) announced today it has entered into an agreement with GE Capital Bank (“GECB”) to acquire GECB’s online deposit platform and assume GECB’s approximately $8 billion in online deposit accounts and $8 billion in brokered certificates of deposit for an expected total of approximately $16 billion of deposits at closing. GS Bank will acquire no financial assets in the transaction other than cash associated with the deposit liabilities.
“This transaction achieves greater funding diversification and strengthens the liquidity profile of GS Bank by providing an additional deposit gathering channel. The establishment of this channel represents the advancement of a key funding objective for the firm,” said Liz Beshel Robinson, Treasurer of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Scott Roberts, President of GECB, said: “We are pleased to transition our depositor relationships to GS Bank, a large, stable institution with a focus on customer service. I am personally excited at the prospect of joining GS Bank, along with my team, to work towards a seamless transition of depositor accounts and to assist in managing the platform going forward.” “We look forward to welcoming and serving GECB’s online deposit customers at GS Bank with the high standard of service they have come to expect. We also look forward to working with our new colleagues from GECB,” said Esta Stecher, Chief Executive Officer of GS Bank.
As part of the transaction, GS Bank will extend offers of employment to substantially all of GECB’s employees dedicated to supporting the online deposit platform. As GECB’s deposit platform is online only, the transaction does not include the purchase of any physical assets.
Of course, when the next systemic crash does come, anyone holding more than the FDIC insured maximum will be promptly bailed-in alongside all other unsecured creditors, which is why we doubt Goldman will have much success in gathering zero-cost depositor capital despite the bank's desire for "greater funding diversification" (one may wonder why Goldman needs said diversification now... rhetorically).
Or perhaps we are wrong: just look at Greece - instead of taking every opportunity to empty out the local banks, the domestic savers who clearly have no idea that all the Greek government has done is to buy a few months of time, are once again eager to put their money in the same banks which just a few weeks ago refused to give money to its rightful owners.
Maybe Goldman is merely betting that when it comes to human stupidity, it truly is infinite. In which case, it probably made the right decision. Otherwise, well, step aside Spiderman Towel...
... it's time for the Blankfein Towel.
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/13/2015 16:34 -0400
The last time former Goldman employee and then Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson bailed out the hedge fund known as Goldman Sachs, and its closest peers (but not its biggest fixed income competitor Lehman Brothers of course), even the traditionally confused American public pushed back on the structure of the bailout which converted the Goldman holding company into an FDIC-insured company, which led many to ask: just where are Goldman's deposits?
The answer, of course, was nowhere, so perhaps in anticipation of the logical pushback against its second, upcoming bailout which would see the taxpayer-backed depositor insurance company once again provide trillions in cash to banks as well as the glorified hedge funds such as Goldman, the firm moments ago decided to do something it has never done before: become an actual bank with checking accounts and such.
It did so by announcing moments ago it would acquire GE's Capital Bank's online deposit platform, as in online checking accounts, including $8 billion in deposits and $8 billion in brokered CDs, thereby providing Goldman with a virtually costless source of $16 billion in funds. Costless, because under ZIRP, Goldman pays precisely zero interest for the unsecured liability also known as a deposit.
from the PR:
Goldman Sachs Bank USA (“GS Bank”) announced today it has entered into an agreement with GE Capital Bank (“GECB”) to acquire GECB’s online deposit platform and assume GECB’s approximately $8 billion in online deposit accounts and $8 billion in brokered certificates of deposit for an expected total of approximately $16 billion of deposits at closing. GS Bank will acquire no financial assets in the transaction other than cash associated with the deposit liabilities.
“This transaction achieves greater funding diversification and strengthens the liquidity profile of GS Bank by providing an additional deposit gathering channel. The establishment of this channel represents the advancement of a key funding objective for the firm,” said Liz Beshel Robinson, Treasurer of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Scott Roberts, President of GECB, said: “We are pleased to transition our depositor relationships to GS Bank, a large, stable institution with a focus on customer service. I am personally excited at the prospect of joining GS Bank, along with my team, to work towards a seamless transition of depositor accounts and to assist in managing the platform going forward.” “We look forward to welcoming and serving GECB’s online deposit customers at GS Bank with the high standard of service they have come to expect. We also look forward to working with our new colleagues from GECB,” said Esta Stecher, Chief Executive Officer of GS Bank.
As part of the transaction, GS Bank will extend offers of employment to substantially all of GECB’s employees dedicated to supporting the online deposit platform. As GECB’s deposit platform is online only, the transaction does not include the purchase of any physical assets.
Of course, when the next systemic crash does come, anyone holding more than the FDIC insured maximum will be promptly bailed-in alongside all other unsecured creditors, which is why we doubt Goldman will have much success in gathering zero-cost depositor capital despite the bank's desire for "greater funding diversification" (one may wonder why Goldman needs said diversification now... rhetorically).
Or perhaps we are wrong: just look at Greece - instead of taking every opportunity to empty out the local banks, the domestic savers who clearly have no idea that all the Greek government has done is to buy a few months of time, are once again eager to put their money in the same banks which just a few weeks ago refused to give money to its rightful owners.
Maybe Goldman is merely betting that when it comes to human stupidity, it truly is infinite. In which case, it probably made the right decision. Otherwise, well, step aside Spiderman Towel...
... it's time for the Blankfein Towel.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
por Fenix » Jue Ago 13, 2015 7:14 pm
3 Things: Freight, Deflation, No Hike
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/13/2015 15:26 -0400
Submitted by Lance Roberts
Freight Volumes Suggest Weak Growth
We often look at broad measures of the economy to determine its current state. However, we can often receive clues about where the economy may be headed by looking at data that feeds into the broader measures. Exports, imports, wage growth, commodity prices, etc. all have very important ties to the health of the consumer which is critical to an economy that is nearly 70% driven by their consumption.
While I have discussed the importance those issue in the past, there are other indicators that can also provide valuable clues. One such example is the Cass Freight Index. From the Cass website:
"Data within the Index includes all domestic freight modes and is derived from $26 billion in freight transactions processed by Cass annually on behalf of its client base of hundreds of large shippers. These companies represent a broad sampling of industries including consumer packaged goods, food, automotive, chemical, OEM, retail and heavy equipment. Annual freight volume per organization ranges from $1 million to over $1 billion. The diversity of shippers and aggregate volume provide a statistically valid representation of North American shipping activity."
The chart below is the annual change in both the shipments and expenditures on freight shipments since 1999.
Cass-Freight-Index-081215
While there is much hope that the current economic recovery will somehow magically obtain 3% annualized growth in the quarters ahead, freight shipments are suggesting weakness.
This is not surprising given the weakness in commodities, exports and wage growth in recent months which all confirm the same. While this does not mean that the economy is about to slip into an immediate recession, it does suggest that the economy is far weaker than headlines currently suggest.
Deflationary Pressures On The Rise
Speaking of exports and imports, imports are currently suggesting that deflationary pressures are once again on the march globally. Deflationary pressures abroad ultimately force down import prices into the US economy which aggravates the deflationary cycle. With the strong dollar dragging on exports, a decline in import prices further deteriorates corporate profitability.
Albert Edwards at Societe General recently noted:
"We expect the acceleration of EM devaluations to send waves of deflation to the west to overwhelm already struggling corporate profitability and take us back into outright recession. As investors realize yet another recession beckons, without any normalization of either interest rates or fiscal imbalances in this cycle, expect a financial market rout every bit as large as 2008."
There are a couple of important points that Mr. Edwards is making. The first is that in an already weak economic environment, further deflationary pressures will continue to detract from corporate profitability and further slow already slow economic growth. Secondly, and more critically, with interest rate policy still near the zero bound there are few policy tools available to combat an economic recession.
The chart below shows the annual change in imports and exports. Imports are driven by domestic demand. As consumers demand more goods or services, imports increase to fulfill that demand. Exports are an indication of global demand. Therefore, if the economy is expected to grow more strongly in the quarters ahead, should not imports and exports be on the rise?
Imports-Exports-Recessions-081215
"To Hike, Or Not To Hike?"
That is indeed the question that perplexes the Federal Reserve currently. As I recently penned in "The Fed's Window For Hiking Rates Continues To Close;"
"The Federal Reserve has a very difficult challenge ahead of them with very few options. While increasing interest rates may not "initially" impact asset prices or the economy, it is a far different story to suggest that they won't. In fact, there have been absolutely ZERO times in history that the Federal Reserve has began an interest-rate hiking campaign that has not eventually led to a negative outcome.
While the Federal Reserve clearly should not raise rates in the current environment, there is a possibility they will anyway.
The Fed understands that economic cycles do not last forever, and we are closer to the next recession than not. While raising rates would likely accelerate a potential recession and a significant market correction, from the Fed's perspective it might be the 'lesser of two evils. Being caught at the "zero bound" at the onset of a recession leaves few options for the Federal Reserve to stabilize an economic decline."
The Federal Reserve as of late have issued repeated statements that rates are set to rise at the September meeting. However, with China's financial and economic troubles on the rise, the negative impact of the surging US dollar, rising deflationary forces globally and falling asset prices; there is a rising probability they will push off the rate hike until the end of the year.
The problem for the Fed is they are now likely "behind the curve" and will be caught with interest rates too low when the next recessionary cycle sets in.
Importantly, as stated above, I am not suggesting that the economy is about to slip into an immediate recession. However, I am stating that all economic cycles do eventually end. When the current economic growth cycle begins to contract, if the Fed is still stuck at the zero bound it leaves them few policy options available to offset the risk to the financial markets. This is why I tend to agree with Mr. Edwards point that such a combination of events could lead to a mean-reverting event on par with the past two recessionary periods.
The combination of these data points continues to support my long-held thesis that the "Bond Bull Market" is still far from over. Despite the majority of analysts continuing to be wrong about rates rising, the reality is the persistent wave of global deflationary pressures will continue to support bond prices in the future.
Interest-Rates-GDP-Inflation-081215
Given that interest rates are ultimately tied to economic growth and inflation, it is highly likely we will see interest rates on the 10-year Treasury below 1% during the next recessionary cycle.
The Fed is rapidly coming to realize they are caught in a "liquidity trap." The problem is they have been betting on a "one trick pony" that by increasing the "wealth effect" it will ultimately lead to a return of consumer confidence and a fostering of economic growth?
Currently, there is little real evidence of success.
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/13/2015 15:26 -0400
Submitted by Lance Roberts
Freight Volumes Suggest Weak Growth
We often look at broad measures of the economy to determine its current state. However, we can often receive clues about where the economy may be headed by looking at data that feeds into the broader measures. Exports, imports, wage growth, commodity prices, etc. all have very important ties to the health of the consumer which is critical to an economy that is nearly 70% driven by their consumption.
While I have discussed the importance those issue in the past, there are other indicators that can also provide valuable clues. One such example is the Cass Freight Index. From the Cass website:
"Data within the Index includes all domestic freight modes and is derived from $26 billion in freight transactions processed by Cass annually on behalf of its client base of hundreds of large shippers. These companies represent a broad sampling of industries including consumer packaged goods, food, automotive, chemical, OEM, retail and heavy equipment. Annual freight volume per organization ranges from $1 million to over $1 billion. The diversity of shippers and aggregate volume provide a statistically valid representation of North American shipping activity."
The chart below is the annual change in both the shipments and expenditures on freight shipments since 1999.
Cass-Freight-Index-081215
While there is much hope that the current economic recovery will somehow magically obtain 3% annualized growth in the quarters ahead, freight shipments are suggesting weakness.
This is not surprising given the weakness in commodities, exports and wage growth in recent months which all confirm the same. While this does not mean that the economy is about to slip into an immediate recession, it does suggest that the economy is far weaker than headlines currently suggest.
Deflationary Pressures On The Rise
Speaking of exports and imports, imports are currently suggesting that deflationary pressures are once again on the march globally. Deflationary pressures abroad ultimately force down import prices into the US economy which aggravates the deflationary cycle. With the strong dollar dragging on exports, a decline in import prices further deteriorates corporate profitability.
Albert Edwards at Societe General recently noted:
"We expect the acceleration of EM devaluations to send waves of deflation to the west to overwhelm already struggling corporate profitability and take us back into outright recession. As investors realize yet another recession beckons, without any normalization of either interest rates or fiscal imbalances in this cycle, expect a financial market rout every bit as large as 2008."
There are a couple of important points that Mr. Edwards is making. The first is that in an already weak economic environment, further deflationary pressures will continue to detract from corporate profitability and further slow already slow economic growth. Secondly, and more critically, with interest rate policy still near the zero bound there are few policy tools available to combat an economic recession.
The chart below shows the annual change in imports and exports. Imports are driven by domestic demand. As consumers demand more goods or services, imports increase to fulfill that demand. Exports are an indication of global demand. Therefore, if the economy is expected to grow more strongly in the quarters ahead, should not imports and exports be on the rise?
Imports-Exports-Recessions-081215
"To Hike, Or Not To Hike?"
That is indeed the question that perplexes the Federal Reserve currently. As I recently penned in "The Fed's Window For Hiking Rates Continues To Close;"
"The Federal Reserve has a very difficult challenge ahead of them with very few options. While increasing interest rates may not "initially" impact asset prices or the economy, it is a far different story to suggest that they won't. In fact, there have been absolutely ZERO times in history that the Federal Reserve has began an interest-rate hiking campaign that has not eventually led to a negative outcome.
While the Federal Reserve clearly should not raise rates in the current environment, there is a possibility they will anyway.
The Fed understands that economic cycles do not last forever, and we are closer to the next recession than not. While raising rates would likely accelerate a potential recession and a significant market correction, from the Fed's perspective it might be the 'lesser of two evils. Being caught at the "zero bound" at the onset of a recession leaves few options for the Federal Reserve to stabilize an economic decline."
The Federal Reserve as of late have issued repeated statements that rates are set to rise at the September meeting. However, with China's financial and economic troubles on the rise, the negative impact of the surging US dollar, rising deflationary forces globally and falling asset prices; there is a rising probability they will push off the rate hike until the end of the year.
The problem for the Fed is they are now likely "behind the curve" and will be caught with interest rates too low when the next recessionary cycle sets in.
Importantly, as stated above, I am not suggesting that the economy is about to slip into an immediate recession. However, I am stating that all economic cycles do eventually end. When the current economic growth cycle begins to contract, if the Fed is still stuck at the zero bound it leaves them few policy options available to offset the risk to the financial markets. This is why I tend to agree with Mr. Edwards point that such a combination of events could lead to a mean-reverting event on par with the past two recessionary periods.
The combination of these data points continues to support my long-held thesis that the "Bond Bull Market" is still far from over. Despite the majority of analysts continuing to be wrong about rates rising, the reality is the persistent wave of global deflationary pressures will continue to support bond prices in the future.
Interest-Rates-GDP-Inflation-081215
Given that interest rates are ultimately tied to economic growth and inflation, it is highly likely we will see interest rates on the 10-year Treasury below 1% during the next recessionary cycle.
The Fed is rapidly coming to realize they are caught in a "liquidity trap." The problem is they have been betting on a "one trick pony" that by increasing the "wealth effect" it will ultimately lead to a return of consumer confidence and a fostering of economic growth?
Currently, there is little real evidence of success.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
por Fenix » Jue Ago 13, 2015 7:17 pm
If You're Buying Energy Stocks, Ignore These 3 Charts
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/13/2015 12:44 -0400
Presented with little comment, aside to say - seriously!!!
"They are cheap?"
What do the 'smart' equity algos know that credit and commodity professionals do not? At 1051bps, Energy credit risk is now at record highs!!
What is it? 3rd time the charm?
Trade accordingly!
Mind The JOLTS - There's A Bearish Warning In There
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/13/2015 - 12:37
The ratio of hires to job openings has been steadily falling. The analysts the WSJ cited all felt that the growing number of job openings was a bullish sign, and that employers can’t find workers to fill the jobs they are offering because workers don’t have the skills employers need. However, The Journal failed to mention the other cause - that the jobs being offered are so crappy and so low paying, nobody wants to take them. More troubling though is the rise in layoffs, just as we saw in 2007...just before stocks turned down.
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/13/2015 12:44 -0400
Presented with little comment, aside to say - seriously!!!
"They are cheap?"
What do the 'smart' equity algos know that credit and commodity professionals do not? At 1051bps, Energy credit risk is now at record highs!!
What is it? 3rd time the charm?
Trade accordingly!
Mind The JOLTS - There's A Bearish Warning In There
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/13/2015 - 12:37
The ratio of hires to job openings has been steadily falling. The analysts the WSJ cited all felt that the growing number of job openings was a bullish sign, and that employers can’t find workers to fill the jobs they are offering because workers don’t have the skills employers need. However, The Journal failed to mention the other cause - that the jobs being offered are so crappy and so low paying, nobody wants to take them. More troubling though is the rise in layoffs, just as we saw in 2007...just before stocks turned down.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
por Fenix » Jue Ago 13, 2015 7:24 pm
Even The Fed Admits Recession Looms: Q3 GDP Forecast Slashed To Just 0.7%
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/13/2015 - 12:07
Just as we warned earlier - and Goldman subsequently confirmed - the Q2 "stack'em-high" surge in inventories (which has juiced hype hope that America is back, baby!) has consequences. The Atlanta Fed just released its latest forecast for Q3 GDP growth, lowering it to just 0.7%, citing an inventory drag of -2.2 percentage points. The Fed estimate is now 75% below the street's consensus!!
TSLA Confirms Cash Burn Fears, Sells $500 Million In Stock
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/13/2015 07:24 -0400
Over the weekend, when looking carefully at Tesla's cash burn, pardon cash inferno...
... we said that at "the current cash burn rate, TSLA can only fund just two more quarters of cash burn at which point, and most likely well before it, the company will have to aggressively raise new capital."
It wasn't 1-2 quarters. It was barely 3 days. Moments ago TSLA announced that, just as we expected, it would dilute its shareholder by just under 2% by issuing $500 million in equity. From the press release:
Tesla announced today that it intends to offer, subject to market and other conditions, $500 million of additional shares of common stock in an underwritten registered public offering. In addition, Tesla intends to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to $75 million of additional shares of common stock.
Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, intends to purchase $20 million of common stock in this offering at the public offering price.
One wonders if the entire $20 million "out of Elon's pocket" was once again funded by $20 million out of California taxpayers' pockets.
Tesla intends to use the net proceeds from this offering to accelerate the growth of its business in the United States and internationally, including the growth of its stores, service centers, Supercharger network and the Tesla Energy business, and for the development and production of Model 3, the development of the Tesla Gigafactory, and other general corporate purposes.
In other words, at the current burn rate, TSLA just bought itself one more quarter of cash flow. Expect another equity offering in the next 1-2 quarters.
And if there is a reason why Morgan Stanley did not upgrade the stock with a $320 price target yesterday as it did back in 2014 the day before it issued a convertible offering for TSLA, is that this time the lead left is Goldman, not MS:
Goldman, Sachs & Co. and Morgan Stanley are acting as lead joint book-running managers for the offering, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank Securities are acting as additional book-running managers for the offering, and BofA Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo Securities are acting as co-managers.
And since this is the new paranormal, a $500 million dilution of the $30 billion market cap company promptly pushed its market cap higher... by $500 million, confirming yet again that to algos a GAAP equity offering is really just a non-GAAP buyback.
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/13/2015 - 12:07
Just as we warned earlier - and Goldman subsequently confirmed - the Q2 "stack'em-high" surge in inventories (which has juiced hype hope that America is back, baby!) has consequences. The Atlanta Fed just released its latest forecast for Q3 GDP growth, lowering it to just 0.7%, citing an inventory drag of -2.2 percentage points. The Fed estimate is now 75% below the street's consensus!!
TSLA Confirms Cash Burn Fears, Sells $500 Million In Stock
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/13/2015 07:24 -0400
Over the weekend, when looking carefully at Tesla's cash burn, pardon cash inferno...
... we said that at "the current cash burn rate, TSLA can only fund just two more quarters of cash burn at which point, and most likely well before it, the company will have to aggressively raise new capital."
It wasn't 1-2 quarters. It was barely 3 days. Moments ago TSLA announced that, just as we expected, it would dilute its shareholder by just under 2% by issuing $500 million in equity. From the press release:
Tesla announced today that it intends to offer, subject to market and other conditions, $500 million of additional shares of common stock in an underwritten registered public offering. In addition, Tesla intends to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to $75 million of additional shares of common stock.
Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, intends to purchase $20 million of common stock in this offering at the public offering price.
One wonders if the entire $20 million "out of Elon's pocket" was once again funded by $20 million out of California taxpayers' pockets.
Tesla intends to use the net proceeds from this offering to accelerate the growth of its business in the United States and internationally, including the growth of its stores, service centers, Supercharger network and the Tesla Energy business, and for the development and production of Model 3, the development of the Tesla Gigafactory, and other general corporate purposes.
In other words, at the current burn rate, TSLA just bought itself one more quarter of cash flow. Expect another equity offering in the next 1-2 quarters.
And if there is a reason why Morgan Stanley did not upgrade the stock with a $320 price target yesterday as it did back in 2014 the day before it issued a convertible offering for TSLA, is that this time the lead left is Goldman, not MS:
Goldman, Sachs & Co. and Morgan Stanley are acting as lead joint book-running managers for the offering, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank Securities are acting as additional book-running managers for the offering, and BofA Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo Securities are acting as co-managers.
And since this is the new paranormal, a $500 million dilution of the $30 billion market cap company promptly pushed its market cap higher... by $500 million, confirming yet again that to algos a GAAP equity offering is really just a non-GAAP buyback.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
por Fenix » Jue Ago 13, 2015 7:26 pm
12 Signs That An Imminent Global Financial Crash Has Become Even More Likely
08/12/2015 18:30 -0400
Submitted by Michael Snyder
Did you see what just happened? The devaluation of the yuan by China triggered the largest one day drop for that currency in the modern era. This caused other global currencies to crash relative to the U.S. dollar, the price of oil hit a six year low, and stock markets all over the world were rattled. The Dow fell 212 points on Tuesday, and Apple stock plummeted another 5 percent.
As we hurtle toward the absolutely critical months of September and October, the unraveling of the global financial system is beginning to accelerate. At this point, it is not going to take very much to push us into a full-blown worldwide financial crisis. The following are 12 signs that indicate that a global financial crash has become even more likely after the events of the past few days…
#1 The devaluation of the yuan on Tuesday took virtually the entire planet by surprise (and not in a good way). The following comes from Reuters…
China’s 2 percent devaluation of the yuan on Tuesday pushed the U.S. dollar higher and hit Wall Street and other global equity markets as it raised fears of a new round of currency wars and fed worries about slowing Chinese economic growth.
#2 One of the big reasons why China devalued the yuan was to try to boost exports. China’s exports declined 8.3 percent in July, and global trade overall is falling at a pace that we haven’t seen since the last recession.
#3 Now that the Chinese have devalued their currency, other nations that rely on exports are indicating that they might do the same thing. If you scan the big financial news sites, it seems like the term “currency war” is now being bandied about quite a bit.
#4 This is the very first time that the 50 day moving average for the Dow has moved below the 200 day moving average in the last four years. This is known as a “death cross”, and it is a very troubling sign. We are just about at the point where all of the most common technical signals that investors typically use to make investment decisions will be screaming “sell”.
#5 The price of oil just closed at a brand new six year low. When the price of oil started to decline back in late 2014, a whole lot of people were proclaiming that this would be a good thing for the U.S. economy. Now we can see just how wrong they were.
At this point, the price of oil has already fallen to a level that is going to be absolutely nightmarish for the global economy if it stays here. Just consider what Jeff Gundlach had to say about this in December…
And back in December 2014, “Bond King” Jeff Gundlach had a serious warning for the world if oil prices got to $40 a barrel.
“I hope it does not go to $40,” Gundlach said in a presentation, “because then something is very, very wrong with the world, not just the economy. The geopolitical consequences could be — to put it bluntly — terrifying.”
#6 This week we learned that OPEC has been pumping more oil than we thought, and it is being projected that this could cause the price of oil to plunge into the 30s…
Increased pumping by OPEC as Chinese demand appears to be slackening could drive oil to the lowest prices since the peak of the financial crisis.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures skidded through the year’s lows and looked set to break into the $30s-per-barrel range after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries admitted to more pumping and China devalued its currency, sending ripples through global markets.
#7 In a recent article, I explained that the collapse in commodity prices that we are witnessing right now is eerily similar to what we witnessed just before the stock market crash of 2008. On Tuesday, things got even worse for commodities as the price of copper closed at a brand new six year low.
#8 The South American debt crisis of 2015 continues to intensify. Brazil’s government bonds have been downgraded to just one level above junk status, and the approval rating of Brazil’s president has fallen into the single digits.
#9 Just before the financial crisis of 2008, a surging U.S. dollar put an extraordinary amount of stress on emerging markets. Now that is happening again. Emerging market stocks just hit a brand new four year low on Tuesday thanks to the stunt that China just pulled.
#10 Things are not so great in the United States either. The ratio of wholesale inventories to sales in the United States just hit the highest level since the last recession. What that means is that there is a whole lot of stuff sitting in warehouses out there that is waiting to be sold in an economy that is rapidly slowing down.
#11 Speaking of slowing down, the growth of consumer spending in the United States has just plummeted to multi-year lows.
#12 Deep inside, most of us can feel what is coming. According to Gallup, the number of Americans that believe that the economy is getting worse is almost 50 percent higher than the number of Americans that believe that the economy is getting better.
Things are lining up perfectly for a global financial crisis and a major recession beginning in the fall and winter of 2015.
But just because things look like they will happen a certain way does not necessarily mean that they will. All it takes is a single “event” of some sort to change everything.
08/12/2015 18:30 -0400
Submitted by Michael Snyder
Did you see what just happened? The devaluation of the yuan by China triggered the largest one day drop for that currency in the modern era. This caused other global currencies to crash relative to the U.S. dollar, the price of oil hit a six year low, and stock markets all over the world were rattled. The Dow fell 212 points on Tuesday, and Apple stock plummeted another 5 percent.
As we hurtle toward the absolutely critical months of September and October, the unraveling of the global financial system is beginning to accelerate. At this point, it is not going to take very much to push us into a full-blown worldwide financial crisis. The following are 12 signs that indicate that a global financial crash has become even more likely after the events of the past few days…
#1 The devaluation of the yuan on Tuesday took virtually the entire planet by surprise (and not in a good way). The following comes from Reuters…
China’s 2 percent devaluation of the yuan on Tuesday pushed the U.S. dollar higher and hit Wall Street and other global equity markets as it raised fears of a new round of currency wars and fed worries about slowing Chinese economic growth.
#2 One of the big reasons why China devalued the yuan was to try to boost exports. China’s exports declined 8.3 percent in July, and global trade overall is falling at a pace that we haven’t seen since the last recession.
#3 Now that the Chinese have devalued their currency, other nations that rely on exports are indicating that they might do the same thing. If you scan the big financial news sites, it seems like the term “currency war” is now being bandied about quite a bit.
#4 This is the very first time that the 50 day moving average for the Dow has moved below the 200 day moving average in the last four years. This is known as a “death cross”, and it is a very troubling sign. We are just about at the point where all of the most common technical signals that investors typically use to make investment decisions will be screaming “sell”.
#5 The price of oil just closed at a brand new six year low. When the price of oil started to decline back in late 2014, a whole lot of people were proclaiming that this would be a good thing for the U.S. economy. Now we can see just how wrong they were.
At this point, the price of oil has already fallen to a level that is going to be absolutely nightmarish for the global economy if it stays here. Just consider what Jeff Gundlach had to say about this in December…
And back in December 2014, “Bond King” Jeff Gundlach had a serious warning for the world if oil prices got to $40 a barrel.
“I hope it does not go to $40,” Gundlach said in a presentation, “because then something is very, very wrong with the world, not just the economy. The geopolitical consequences could be — to put it bluntly — terrifying.”
#6 This week we learned that OPEC has been pumping more oil than we thought, and it is being projected that this could cause the price of oil to plunge into the 30s…
Increased pumping by OPEC as Chinese demand appears to be slackening could drive oil to the lowest prices since the peak of the financial crisis.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures skidded through the year’s lows and looked set to break into the $30s-per-barrel range after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries admitted to more pumping and China devalued its currency, sending ripples through global markets.
#7 In a recent article, I explained that the collapse in commodity prices that we are witnessing right now is eerily similar to what we witnessed just before the stock market crash of 2008. On Tuesday, things got even worse for commodities as the price of copper closed at a brand new six year low.
#8 The South American debt crisis of 2015 continues to intensify. Brazil’s government bonds have been downgraded to just one level above junk status, and the approval rating of Brazil’s president has fallen into the single digits.
#9 Just before the financial crisis of 2008, a surging U.S. dollar put an extraordinary amount of stress on emerging markets. Now that is happening again. Emerging market stocks just hit a brand new four year low on Tuesday thanks to the stunt that China just pulled.
#10 Things are not so great in the United States either. The ratio of wholesale inventories to sales in the United States just hit the highest level since the last recession. What that means is that there is a whole lot of stuff sitting in warehouses out there that is waiting to be sold in an economy that is rapidly slowing down.
#11 Speaking of slowing down, the growth of consumer spending in the United States has just plummeted to multi-year lows.
#12 Deep inside, most of us can feel what is coming. According to Gallup, the number of Americans that believe that the economy is getting worse is almost 50 percent higher than the number of Americans that believe that the economy is getting better.
Things are lining up perfectly for a global financial crisis and a major recession beginning in the fall and winter of 2015.
But just because things look like they will happen a certain way does not necessarily mean that they will. All it takes is a single “event” of some sort to change everything.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
por Fenix » Jue Ago 13, 2015 7:27 pm
Emerging Market Currencies To Crash 30-50%, Jen Says
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/12/2015 18:00 -0400
Less than 24 hours ago, we argued that although it might have seemed as though Brazil hit rock bottom in Q2 when it suffered through the worst inflation-growth mix in over a decade, things were likely to get worse still.
The country, which is also coping with twin deficits and a terribly fractious political environment, is at the center of what Morgan Stanley recently called “a triple unwind of EM credit, China’s leverage, and US monetary easing” and now that its most critical trading partner has officially entered the global currency war, all roads lead to further devaluation of the faltering BRL.
And it’s not just the BRL. As Bloomberg reports, former IMF economist Stephen Jen (who called the 1997 Asian crisis while at Morgan Stanley) thinks EM currencies could fall by an average of 30% going forward on the back of the PBoC’s move to devalue the yuan. Here’s more:
[The] devaluation of the yuan risks a new round of competitive easing that may send currencies from Brazil's real to Indonesia's rupiah tumbling by an average 30 percent to 50 percent in the next nine months, according to investor and former International Monetary Fund economist Stephen Jen.
Volatility measures were already signaling rising distress in emerging markets even before China's shock move. An index of anticipated price swings climbed above a rich-world gauge at the end of July, reversing the trend seen for most of the past six months.
"If this is the beginning of a new phase in Beijing's currency policy, it would be the biggest development in the currency world this year,'' said Jen, founder of London-based hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP. "The emerging-market currency weakening trend is now going global.''
Latin America is a particular concern because of the region's high levels of corporate debt, said Jen
Jen recommends selling the real, rupiah and South African rand -- all currencies of commodity exporters, which rely on China for a large chunk of their foreign earnings.
As well as the drop in raw-materials prices, the prospect of higher interest rates in the U.S. has also drawn away investment, pushing a Bloomberg index of emerging-market exchange rates down 20 percent in the past year. A Latin American measure headed for its 13th monthly loss out of 14, while an Asian gauge plunged Tuesday to its lowest in six years.
And a bit more color from WSJ:
If China’s devaluation deepens, pressure to weaken currencies could become particularly intense in other Asian nations that export large amounts to China or compete with Beijing in other markets. Asian currencies tumbled on Tuesday, notably the South Korean won, Australian dollar and Thai baht, as investors bet China’s move could lead to further monetary easing in those nations. Many Asian nations have cut rates this year and could be forced to take further action in coming months.
“A new theme has emerged—one of Asian currency weakness,” said Wai Ho Leong, an economist in Asia at Barclays.
To be sure, it's all down hill from here, and on that note, we'll reprise our conclusion from last week's "Emerging Market Mayhem" piece: Between an inevitable (if now delayed) Fed hike, stubbornly low commodities prices, the entry of the world's most important economy into the global currency wars, and, perhaps most importantly from a big picture, long-term perspective, a seismic shift in the pace of global demand and trade, we could begin to see a wholesale shift in which the markets formerly known as "emerging" quickly descend into "frontier" status and after that, well, cue the "humanitarian aid" packages.
* * *
Here's a look at the damage since Monday, right before the devaluation:
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/12/2015 18:00 -0400
Less than 24 hours ago, we argued that although it might have seemed as though Brazil hit rock bottom in Q2 when it suffered through the worst inflation-growth mix in over a decade, things were likely to get worse still.
The country, which is also coping with twin deficits and a terribly fractious political environment, is at the center of what Morgan Stanley recently called “a triple unwind of EM credit, China’s leverage, and US monetary easing” and now that its most critical trading partner has officially entered the global currency war, all roads lead to further devaluation of the faltering BRL.
And it’s not just the BRL. As Bloomberg reports, former IMF economist Stephen Jen (who called the 1997 Asian crisis while at Morgan Stanley) thinks EM currencies could fall by an average of 30% going forward on the back of the PBoC’s move to devalue the yuan. Here’s more:
[The] devaluation of the yuan risks a new round of competitive easing that may send currencies from Brazil's real to Indonesia's rupiah tumbling by an average 30 percent to 50 percent in the next nine months, according to investor and former International Monetary Fund economist Stephen Jen.
Volatility measures were already signaling rising distress in emerging markets even before China's shock move. An index of anticipated price swings climbed above a rich-world gauge at the end of July, reversing the trend seen for most of the past six months.
"If this is the beginning of a new phase in Beijing's currency policy, it would be the biggest development in the currency world this year,'' said Jen, founder of London-based hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners LLP. "The emerging-market currency weakening trend is now going global.''
Latin America is a particular concern because of the region's high levels of corporate debt, said Jen
Jen recommends selling the real, rupiah and South African rand -- all currencies of commodity exporters, which rely on China for a large chunk of their foreign earnings.
As well as the drop in raw-materials prices, the prospect of higher interest rates in the U.S. has also drawn away investment, pushing a Bloomberg index of emerging-market exchange rates down 20 percent in the past year. A Latin American measure headed for its 13th monthly loss out of 14, while an Asian gauge plunged Tuesday to its lowest in six years.
And a bit more color from WSJ:
If China’s devaluation deepens, pressure to weaken currencies could become particularly intense in other Asian nations that export large amounts to China or compete with Beijing in other markets. Asian currencies tumbled on Tuesday, notably the South Korean won, Australian dollar and Thai baht, as investors bet China’s move could lead to further monetary easing in those nations. Many Asian nations have cut rates this year and could be forced to take further action in coming months.
“A new theme has emerged—one of Asian currency weakness,” said Wai Ho Leong, an economist in Asia at Barclays.
To be sure, it's all down hill from here, and on that note, we'll reprise our conclusion from last week's "Emerging Market Mayhem" piece: Between an inevitable (if now delayed) Fed hike, stubbornly low commodities prices, the entry of the world's most important economy into the global currency wars, and, perhaps most importantly from a big picture, long-term perspective, a seismic shift in the pace of global demand and trade, we could begin to see a wholesale shift in which the markets formerly known as "emerging" quickly descend into "frontier" status and after that, well, cue the "humanitarian aid" packages.
* * *
Here's a look at the damage since Monday, right before the devaluation:
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
por Fenix » Jue Ago 13, 2015 7:27 pm
Albert Edwards: "Prepare For Sub-1% Treasury Yields And Another Financial Crisis"
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/12/2015 20:30 -0400
Make no mistake, warns SocGen's Albert Edwards, this is the start of something big, something ugly. For while the west has been heaving a sigh of relief over the past few months that deflation pressures have abated somewhat – especially at the core level – we have been emphasising that deflation has only been intensifying in Asia and that like any puss-filled boil, this deflationary pressure would soon need to be lanced...
We have long believed that we are only one misstep from outright deflation in the west with core inflation in both the US and eurozone at just 1%. We expect the acceleration of EM devaluations to send waves of deflation to the west to overwhelm already struggling corporate profitability and take us back into outright recession. As investors realise yet another recession beckons, without any normalisation of either interest rates or fiscal imbalances in this cycle, expect a financial market rout every bit as large as 2008.
* * *
Aside from the relentlessly weak economic and inflation data out of China in recent months (notwithstanding the surge in pork prices), the one thing that has changed dramatically over the last 18 months is China’s huge swing into a Balance of Payments deficit. This has exerted chronic downward pressure on the renminbi, forcing the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) to start selling its vast foreign exchange reserves to prop up the beleaguered currency (FX reserves have slid $300bn over the last four quarters). Now, though it was only a little over two months ago the IMF declared the renminbi to be no longer undervalued, many of us felt the situation had gone far beyond that stage and that indeed, the currency was substantially overvalued, especially with the rest of Asia devaluing alongside the Japanese yen. The most shocking illustration of China’s loss of competitiveness in recent years is the 50% surge in its Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) against the US (see chart below).
In some ways the question is not whether the renminbi is competitive or uncompetitive. The problem is that the renminbi is unambiguously less competitive than it was. This comes at a time when the Chinese economy is struggling and the stock market bubble is bursting. We have always said renminbi devaluation would not be a preferred policy lever, but it was one that would be yanked vigorously if needed – viz FX intervention to stop the renminbi falling is effectively a monetary tightening, the last thing China needs at present! Many had felt it would continue to keep the renminbi stable while the IMF was still deliberating whether to admit the renminbi into the IMF’s basket of reserve currencies (SDR). But the IMF’s announcement last week to defer a decision until the autumn of 2016 may well have been sufficient reason for the PBoC to stand aside from FX intervention and bow to the inevitable.
The key thing here is that Tuesday’s devaluation is not just a one-off – you will see persistent weakness from hereon in. For although the PBoC said the move was a one-time adjustment to reflect changes in the way it calculates the daily fix, it also said that the price would be set “in conjunction with demand and supply conditions in the foreign exchange market and exchange rate movements of the major currencies”. To all but the most PollyAnna’ish of observers that means this is the start of a major renminbi devaluation because of the massive downward market pressure the currency is under via the BoP deficit.
This move will transform perceptions about the resilience of the US economy. The recent strength of the trade-weighted US dollar has already contributed to deflation being imported into the US (see right-hand chart above), at a time when core consumer price inflation is already too low. Up until now Japanese yen devaluation has been the main driver of falling US import prices (see top right-hand chart above). Another way to view this is to look at the level of US import prices from various countries/regions since the start of this recovery (see chart below). Despite much talk of Japanese exporters maintaining dollar prices to expand margins and profits, dollar import prices have definitely slumped and China is about to catch up with Japan! For although the renminbi Is not actually included in the trade-weighted DXY calculation, the Fed estimate China’s importance to be 21% of their own broad tradeweighted dollar index - a steep rise from only 15% a decade ago. Japan by contrast currently accounts for 7% of the index, but it has been yen devaluation that has helped heap pressure on China to devalue. Watch that dark blue line below closely.
Many observers, such as myself, believe the US dollar has now entered a secular bull market irrespective whether the Fed raises interest rates in September or not. But in any case, with an ongoing renminbi (read EM …) currency devaluation now underway, the US will import even more of the world’s unwanted deflation. We see this as the end-game in this cycle. With US profits already falling (sharply in the case of whole economy profits), the cycle is already very vulnerable indeed, as it is the business investment component of GDP that causes recessions.
While investors have already talked about the eurozone looking similar to Japan, a deflationary recession also beckons for the US. Core inflation on the Fed’s preferred measure (core PCE) is hovering around the 1% level and a new round of in the currency war will see a move in core inflation below zero to accompany the headline rate.
Prepare for sub-1% 10y Treasury yields and another financial crisis as policy impotence is soon revealed to all.
Source: SocGen
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/12/2015 20:30 -0400
Make no mistake, warns SocGen's Albert Edwards, this is the start of something big, something ugly. For while the west has been heaving a sigh of relief over the past few months that deflation pressures have abated somewhat – especially at the core level – we have been emphasising that deflation has only been intensifying in Asia and that like any puss-filled boil, this deflationary pressure would soon need to be lanced...
We have long believed that we are only one misstep from outright deflation in the west with core inflation in both the US and eurozone at just 1%. We expect the acceleration of EM devaluations to send waves of deflation to the west to overwhelm already struggling corporate profitability and take us back into outright recession. As investors realise yet another recession beckons, without any normalisation of either interest rates or fiscal imbalances in this cycle, expect a financial market rout every bit as large as 2008.
* * *
Aside from the relentlessly weak economic and inflation data out of China in recent months (notwithstanding the surge in pork prices), the one thing that has changed dramatically over the last 18 months is China’s huge swing into a Balance of Payments deficit. This has exerted chronic downward pressure on the renminbi, forcing the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) to start selling its vast foreign exchange reserves to prop up the beleaguered currency (FX reserves have slid $300bn over the last four quarters). Now, though it was only a little over two months ago the IMF declared the renminbi to be no longer undervalued, many of us felt the situation had gone far beyond that stage and that indeed, the currency was substantially overvalued, especially with the rest of Asia devaluing alongside the Japanese yen. The most shocking illustration of China’s loss of competitiveness in recent years is the 50% surge in its Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) against the US (see chart below).
In some ways the question is not whether the renminbi is competitive or uncompetitive. The problem is that the renminbi is unambiguously less competitive than it was. This comes at a time when the Chinese economy is struggling and the stock market bubble is bursting. We have always said renminbi devaluation would not be a preferred policy lever, but it was one that would be yanked vigorously if needed – viz FX intervention to stop the renminbi falling is effectively a monetary tightening, the last thing China needs at present! Many had felt it would continue to keep the renminbi stable while the IMF was still deliberating whether to admit the renminbi into the IMF’s basket of reserve currencies (SDR). But the IMF’s announcement last week to defer a decision until the autumn of 2016 may well have been sufficient reason for the PBoC to stand aside from FX intervention and bow to the inevitable.
The key thing here is that Tuesday’s devaluation is not just a one-off – you will see persistent weakness from hereon in. For although the PBoC said the move was a one-time adjustment to reflect changes in the way it calculates the daily fix, it also said that the price would be set “in conjunction with demand and supply conditions in the foreign exchange market and exchange rate movements of the major currencies”. To all but the most PollyAnna’ish of observers that means this is the start of a major renminbi devaluation because of the massive downward market pressure the currency is under via the BoP deficit.
This move will transform perceptions about the resilience of the US economy. The recent strength of the trade-weighted US dollar has already contributed to deflation being imported into the US (see right-hand chart above), at a time when core consumer price inflation is already too low. Up until now Japanese yen devaluation has been the main driver of falling US import prices (see top right-hand chart above). Another way to view this is to look at the level of US import prices from various countries/regions since the start of this recovery (see chart below). Despite much talk of Japanese exporters maintaining dollar prices to expand margins and profits, dollar import prices have definitely slumped and China is about to catch up with Japan! For although the renminbi Is not actually included in the trade-weighted DXY calculation, the Fed estimate China’s importance to be 21% of their own broad tradeweighted dollar index - a steep rise from only 15% a decade ago. Japan by contrast currently accounts for 7% of the index, but it has been yen devaluation that has helped heap pressure on China to devalue. Watch that dark blue line below closely.
Many observers, such as myself, believe the US dollar has now entered a secular bull market irrespective whether the Fed raises interest rates in September or not. But in any case, with an ongoing renminbi (read EM …) currency devaluation now underway, the US will import even more of the world’s unwanted deflation. We see this as the end-game in this cycle. With US profits already falling (sharply in the case of whole economy profits), the cycle is already very vulnerable indeed, as it is the business investment component of GDP that causes recessions.
While investors have already talked about the eurozone looking similar to Japan, a deflationary recession also beckons for the US. Core inflation on the Fed’s preferred measure (core PCE) is hovering around the 1% level and a new round of in the currency war will see a move in core inflation below zero to accompany the headline rate.
Prepare for sub-1% 10y Treasury yields and another financial crisis as policy impotence is soon revealed to all.
Source: SocGen
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
por Fenix » Jue Ago 13, 2015 7:32 pm
BABA Battered To Record Lows
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/12/2015 09:28 -0400
Alibaba - for months incessantly discussed as the must own stock of the decade - just hit fresh all-time lows. Down over 5% in the pre-market after missing revenue estimates and seeing growth at the slowest in three years, it appears things are not soft-landing in China after all...
But here is CNBC from Nov 2014 to explain why this is a great opportunity to buy the dip...
"I think this is a growth story. I don't think $110, $120—I don't think that's the top," Najarian said. "I think the stock can get to $150."
Ritholz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown said he played the sector via Chinese Internet exchange-traded fund KWEB, with Alibaba accounting for 10 percent its holdings.
"The thing to keep in mind about China, they did not spend the last 30 years building out Wal-Marts and Targets everywhere. So, now that people have more disposable income, they want to spend money on things like Singles' Day, for example," he said. "They don't have a million options in stores down the street. They're increasingly using Alibaba."
Brown said Alibaba's fortunes are tied to the growth of a middle class in China.
"There are a multitude of ways to play it. There have been a lot of big winners in the space. And there will be going forward," he said. "BABA is the best going forward right now. May not be the case three months, six months, a year from now because it's not just what you own, it's at what price you buy it. There are cheaper Chinese Internet names that I think will benefit as well."
TheStreet CIO Stephanie Link noted that with a valuation at 49 times earnings, Alibaba stock was "not cheap."
"I don't know what you want to go full-bore in today," she said. "Maybe you can see a little of the volatility and buy on a dip if you get it."
Joe Terranova of Virtus Investment Partners said institutional money was going to become a factor.
"Now you hear the fundamental earnings story, and those like myself who sat back passively and didn't trust the company, they're going to come in," he said. "You're going to see the institutional mutual fund side own this company in 2014. I expect it to be a very strong winner, and it could easily Pete's target."
* * *
Well it is cheap-er now!
Rotten Apple: Former Leader Breaking Down
08/12/2015 08:56 -0400
Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,
This is just a quick-hitter post on another former leader that is breaking down. As we have mentioned several times – in particular on July 22 and August 5 – the ever-thinning stock market rally is starting to lose the relatively few leaders still keeping it afloat. That July post noted the relative weakness in the equal-weight Nasdaq 100, even as the cap-weighted index remained near its highs. One reason was the performance of Apple Inc. (AAPL), the largest stock in the index, and the entire U.S. market. When AAPL is moving higher, it can mask a lot of problems in the broader market. Unfortunately for bulls, AAPL is beginning to crack. It began on the day of the July post when it got crushed following its earnings release. It has since broken down more, recently dropping below its post-2009 UP trendline.
As the chart indicates, we are using a logarithmic scale. AAPL prices held the trendline in 2013 and 2014 but broke below just last week. Yesterday, the stock tried to retake the trendline – but it failed miserably, losing over 5% today.
For a market reasonably close to its 52-week high that has exhibited an almost unprecedented deterioration in breadth, it can ill-afford to lose the few leaders it has left – especially one rotten apple that just so happens to be the largest stock in the world.
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/12/2015 09:28 -0400
Alibaba - for months incessantly discussed as the must own stock of the decade - just hit fresh all-time lows. Down over 5% in the pre-market after missing revenue estimates and seeing growth at the slowest in three years, it appears things are not soft-landing in China after all...
But here is CNBC from Nov 2014 to explain why this is a great opportunity to buy the dip...
"I think this is a growth story. I don't think $110, $120—I don't think that's the top," Najarian said. "I think the stock can get to $150."
Ritholz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown said he played the sector via Chinese Internet exchange-traded fund KWEB, with Alibaba accounting for 10 percent its holdings.
"The thing to keep in mind about China, they did not spend the last 30 years building out Wal-Marts and Targets everywhere. So, now that people have more disposable income, they want to spend money on things like Singles' Day, for example," he said. "They don't have a million options in stores down the street. They're increasingly using Alibaba."
Brown said Alibaba's fortunes are tied to the growth of a middle class in China.
"There are a multitude of ways to play it. There have been a lot of big winners in the space. And there will be going forward," he said. "BABA is the best going forward right now. May not be the case three months, six months, a year from now because it's not just what you own, it's at what price you buy it. There are cheaper Chinese Internet names that I think will benefit as well."
TheStreet CIO Stephanie Link noted that with a valuation at 49 times earnings, Alibaba stock was "not cheap."
"I don't know what you want to go full-bore in today," she said. "Maybe you can see a little of the volatility and buy on a dip if you get it."
Joe Terranova of Virtus Investment Partners said institutional money was going to become a factor.
"Now you hear the fundamental earnings story, and those like myself who sat back passively and didn't trust the company, they're going to come in," he said. "You're going to see the institutional mutual fund side own this company in 2014. I expect it to be a very strong winner, and it could easily Pete's target."
* * *
Well it is cheap-er now!
Rotten Apple: Former Leader Breaking Down
08/12/2015 08:56 -0400
Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,
This is just a quick-hitter post on another former leader that is breaking down. As we have mentioned several times – in particular on July 22 and August 5 – the ever-thinning stock market rally is starting to lose the relatively few leaders still keeping it afloat. That July post noted the relative weakness in the equal-weight Nasdaq 100, even as the cap-weighted index remained near its highs. One reason was the performance of Apple Inc. (AAPL), the largest stock in the index, and the entire U.S. market. When AAPL is moving higher, it can mask a lot of problems in the broader market. Unfortunately for bulls, AAPL is beginning to crack. It began on the day of the July post when it got crushed following its earnings release. It has since broken down more, recently dropping below its post-2009 UP trendline.
As the chart indicates, we are using a logarithmic scale. AAPL prices held the trendline in 2013 and 2014 but broke below just last week. Yesterday, the stock tried to retake the trendline – but it failed miserably, losing over 5% today.
For a market reasonably close to its 52-week high that has exhibited an almost unprecedented deterioration in breadth, it can ill-afford to lose the few leaders it has left – especially one rotten apple that just so happens to be the largest stock in the world.
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Re: Jueves 13/08/15 Inventarios de negocios
por admin » Jue Ago 13, 2015 8:52 pm
Banco Central de Chile deja estable tasa interés clave, atento a inflación
SANTIAGO (Reuters) - El Banco Central de Chile dejó el jueves estable en un 3,0 por ciento su tasa de interés referencial, como esperaba el mercado, en un contexto de debilidad de la actividad económica y una alta inflación anual por los efectos de la depreciación del peso.
Con esta decisión la Tasa de Política Monetaria (TPM) completó 10 meses sin cambios, reforzando las expectativas del mercado de que el tipo rector se mantendría estable hasta al menos mediados del próximo año para apoyar la economía.
"La actividad y demanda siguen mostrándose más débiles que lo contemplado (...) y las expectativas privadas de crecimiento para este y el próximo año se redujeron nuevamente", dijo en un comunicado el Banco Central.
También destacó que los indicadores internos de confianza se volvieron más pesimistas, mientras que las perspectivas de crecimiento global se han deteriorado levemente y el lento desarrollo de China ha aumentado los riesgos para países exportadores de materias primas.
"El actual panorama macroeconómico hace improcedente cualquier otra opción que no sea mantener la Tasa de Política Monetaria", dijo el banco Santander Chile en un informe.
En contraste con la marcha de la actividad doméstica, la inflación no ha cedido terreno por los efectos de la depreciación del peso en las importaciones, especialmente de combustibles.
El Banco Central reparó en que la inflación anual sigue sobre un 4 por ciento y se anticipa que "permanecerá en esos niveles por más tiempo que lo previsto".
"Su evolución seguirá monitoreándose con especial atención", remarcó la entidad.
Por ello, el Consejo reafirmó su compromiso de conducir la política monetaria con flexibilidad, de manera que la inflación proyectada se ubique en 3 por ciento en el horizonte de política.
"Cambios futuros en la TPM dependerán de las implicancias de las condiciones macroeconómicas internas y externas sobre las perspectivas inflacionarias", dijo el organismo rector.
SANTIAGO (Reuters) - El Banco Central de Chile dejó el jueves estable en un 3,0 por ciento su tasa de interés referencial, como esperaba el mercado, en un contexto de debilidad de la actividad económica y una alta inflación anual por los efectos de la depreciación del peso.
Con esta decisión la Tasa de Política Monetaria (TPM) completó 10 meses sin cambios, reforzando las expectativas del mercado de que el tipo rector se mantendría estable hasta al menos mediados del próximo año para apoyar la economía.
"La actividad y demanda siguen mostrándose más débiles que lo contemplado (...) y las expectativas privadas de crecimiento para este y el próximo año se redujeron nuevamente", dijo en un comunicado el Banco Central.
También destacó que los indicadores internos de confianza se volvieron más pesimistas, mientras que las perspectivas de crecimiento global se han deteriorado levemente y el lento desarrollo de China ha aumentado los riesgos para países exportadores de materias primas.
"El actual panorama macroeconómico hace improcedente cualquier otra opción que no sea mantener la Tasa de Política Monetaria", dijo el banco Santander Chile en un informe.
En contraste con la marcha de la actividad doméstica, la inflación no ha cedido terreno por los efectos de la depreciación del peso en las importaciones, especialmente de combustibles.
El Banco Central reparó en que la inflación anual sigue sobre un 4 por ciento y se anticipa que "permanecerá en esos niveles por más tiempo que lo previsto".
"Su evolución seguirá monitoreándose con especial atención", remarcó la entidad.
Por ello, el Consejo reafirmó su compromiso de conducir la política monetaria con flexibilidad, de manera que la inflación proyectada se ubique en 3 por ciento en el horizonte de política.
"Cambios futuros en la TPM dependerán de las implicancias de las condiciones macroeconómicas internas y externas sobre las perspectivas inflacionarias", dijo el organismo rector.
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