Behold: A Chinese Liquidity Crunch
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/27/2015 - 17:31
What do you do when daily open FX interventions are sucking liquidity from the system but you need to save your RRR cuts for emergencies? This...
It's Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/27/2015 17:27 -0400
On Tuesday evening, we asked what would happen if emerging markets joined China in dumping US Treasurys. For months we’ve documented the PBoC’s liquidation of its vast stack of US paper. Back in July for instance, we noted that China had dumped a record $143 billion in US Treasurys in three months via Belgium, leaving Goldman speechless for once.
We followed all of this up this week by noting that thanks to the new FX regime (which, in theory anyway, should have required less intervention), China has likely sold somewhere on the order of $100 billion in US Treasurys in the past two weeks alone in open FX ops to steady the yuan. Put simply, as part of China's devaluation and subsequent attempts to contain said devaluation, China has been purging an epic amount of Treasurys.
But even as the cat was out of the bag for Zero Hedge readers and even as, to mix colorful escape metaphors, the genie has been out of the bottle since mid-August for China which, thanks to a steadfast refusal to just float the yuan and be done with it, will have to continue selling USTs by the hundreds of billions, the world at large was slow to wake up to what China’s FX interventions actually implied until Wednesday when two things happened: i) Bloomberg, citing fixed income desks in New York, noted "substantial selling pressure" in long-term USTs emanating from somebody in the "Far East", and ii) Bill Gross asked, in a tweet, if China was selling Treasurys.
Sure enough, on Thursday we got confirmation of what we’ve been detailing exhaustively for months. Here’s Bloomberg:
China has cut its holdings of U.S. Treasuries this month to raise dollars needed to support the yuan in the wake of a shock devaluation two weeks ago, according to people familiar with the matter.
Channels for such transactions include China selling directly, as well as through agents in Belgium and Switzerland, said one of the people, who declined to be identified as the information isn’t public. China has communicated with U.S. authorities about the sales, said another person. They didn’t reveal the size of the disposals.
The latest available Treasury data and estimates by strategists suggest that China controls $1.48 trillion of U.S. government debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That includes about $200 billion held through Belgium, which Nomura Holdings Inc. says is home to Chinese custodial accounts.
The PBOC has sold at least $106 billion of reserve assets in the last two weeks, including Treasuries, according to an estimate from Societe Generale SA. The figure was based on the bank’s calculation of how much liquidity will be added to China’s financial system through Tuesday’s reduction of interest rates and lenders’ reserve-requirement ratios. The assumption is that the central bank aims to replenish the funds it drained when it bought yuan to stabilize the currency.
Now that what has been glaringly obvious for at least six months has been given the official mainstream stamp of fact-based approval, the all-clear has been given for rampant speculation on what exactly this means for US monetary policy. Here’s Bloomberg again:
China selling Treasuries is “not a surprise, but possibly something which people haven’t fully priced in,” said Owen Callan, a Dublin-based fixed-income strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald LP. “It would change the outlook on Treasuries quite a bit if you started to price in a fairly large liquidation of their reserves over the next six months or so as they manage the yuan to whatever level they have in mind.”
“By selling Treasuries to defend the renminbi, they’re preventing Treasury yields from going lower despite the fact that we’ve seen a sharp drop in the stock market,” David Woo, head of global rates and currencies research at Bank of America Corp., said on Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. “China has a direct impact on global markets through U.S. rates.”
As we discussed on Wednesday evening, we do, thanks to a review of the extant academic literature undertaken by Citi, have an idea of what foreign FX reserve liquidation means for USTs. "Suppose EM and developing countries, which hold $5491 bn in reserves, reduce holdings by 10% over one year - this amounts to 3.07% of US GDP and means 10yr Treasury yields rates rise by a mammoth 108bp ," Citi said, in a note dated earlier this week.
In other words, for every $500 billion in liquidated Chinese FX reserves, there's an attendant 108bps worth of upward pressure on the 10Y. Bear in mind here that thanks to the threat of a looming Fed rate hike and a litany of other factors including plunging commodity prices and idiosyncratic political risks, EM currencies are in free fall which means that it's not just China that's in the process of liquidating USD assets.
The clear takeaway is that there's a substantial amount of upward pressure building for UST yields and that is a decisively undesirable situation for the Fed to find itself in going into September. On Wednesday we summed the situation up as follows: "one of the catalysts for the EM outflows is the looming Fed hike which, when taken together with the above, means that if the FOMC raises rates, they will almost surely accelerate the pressure on EM, triggering further FX reserve drawdowns (i.e. UST dumping), resulting in substantial upward pressure on yields and prompting an immediate policy reversal and perhaps even QE4."
Well now that China's UST liquidation frenzy has reached a pace where it could no longer be swept under the rug and/or played down as inconsequential, and now that Bill Dudley has officially opened the door for "additional quantitative easing", it would appear that the only way to prevent China and EM UST liquidation from, as Citi puts it, "choking off the US housing market," and exerting a kind of forced tightening via the UST transmission channel, will be for the FOMC to usher in QE4.
Jueves 08/27/15 GDP (PBI), Indice ventas casas pendientes
Re: Jueves 08/27/15 GDP (PBI), Indice ventas casas pendiente
por Fenix » Jue Ago 27, 2015 8:11 pm
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 08/27/15 GDP (PBI), Indice ventas casas pendiente
por Fenix » Jue Ago 27, 2015 8:12 pm
"Computer Glitch" Plaguing ETFs Is "Unrelated" To Monday's Flash Crash, BNY Swears
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/27/2015 - 19:30
During Monday's flash crashing mayhem, the fragility of the ETF pricing system was exposed for all to see. While common sense dictates that the extreme market moves, trading halts, and tripped circuit breakers may have had quite a lot to do with the epic divergences between NAV and unit pricing, the real culprit was a "computer glitch" caused by a botched "systems change" last Saturday. The fact that the trouble calculating NAVs across nearly 800 mutual funds happened on the very same day as the flash crash is strictly coincidence.
Remembering The Summer Of 1929
08/27/2015 19:00 -0400
Submitted by Jesse
This is one of the best documentaries on the Crash of 1929 if you wish to get a feel for the times. You may find it interesting to watch the whole thing below.I have posted the entire documentary twice before: once, on the 80th anniversary of Black Thursday in 2009, and once before in December of 2007.
I remember the Summer of 1929 being described as unusually hot, with the stock market going up and down like a roller coaster, making investors and pundits almost dizzy. That is, until the great push up to the very height of the market in early September.
It was the laissez-faire abuses of the 1920’s, the reign of supply side economics, the institutionalized political corruption of easy money, an oversized, overly influential and powerful financial/industrial sector that set the stage for the terrible Depression of the 1930’s.
It also gave rise to the many reforms introduced by the FDR administration.
Most of which have been steadily overturned, one by one, by the big money interests who care for nothing but themselves, and would do it again, and again, if allowed to do so.
Most of the scams of the moneyed interests are remarkably simple, and the same over time. At least they are once you scrape away the jargon, the bells and whistles, and paid for policy theories of pedigreed prostitutes.
The titans of Wall Street are no smarter than many smart people who do much more difficult jobs and lead simple, honest lives. But they are driven, they are insatiable, and they are shameless.
Enough people are easily fooled in each generation by well scripted ideological PR campaigns, clever revisions and misrepresentations of history, and the steady drumbeat of slogans and propaganda to allow the same old scams and abuses to come back again. And unfortunately even very smart and powerful and greatly advantaged people are always willing to do anything for money.
Here is a link to the transcript of this documentary.
Narrator: At sea and on land, everyone seemed to be making money. It was a stampede of buying. And major speculators like John Jacob Rascob whipped up the frenzy. He told readers of The Ladies’ Home Journal that now everyone could be rich. September 2nd, Labor Day. It was the hottest day of the year. The markets were closed and people were at the beach. A reporter checked in with astrologer Evangeline to ask about the future of stock prices. Her answer: the Dow Jones could climb to heaven. The very next day, September 3rd, the stock market hit its all-time high.
Ben Karol, Former Newspaper Delivery Boy: My father and I had an ongoing discussion about the stock market. And I used to say, “Pop, everybody’s getting rich but you. You know, you work so hard and you’re never going to make a nickel. All you do is you keep delivering these newspapers and that’s about it. The guy who’s shining shoes is in the stock market, the grocery clerk is in the stock market, the school teacher’s in the stock market. The teller at the bank is in the stock market. Everybody’s in the stock market. You’re the only one that’s not in the stock market.” And he used to sit and laugh and say, “You’ll see. You’ll see. You’ll see.”
Narrator: On September 5th, economist Roger Babson gave a speech to a group of businessmen. “Sooner or later, a crash is coming and it may be terrific.” He’d been saying the same thing for two years, but now, for some reason, investors were listening. The market took a severe dip. They called it the “Babson Break.” The next day, prices stabilized, but several days later, they began to drift lower. Though investors had no way of knowing it, the collapse had already begun
Narrator: In the weeks to follow, the market fluctuated wildly up and down. On September 12th, prices dropped ten percent. They dipped sharply again in the 20s. Stock markets around the world were falling, too. Then, on September 25th, the market suddenly rallied.
Reuben L. Cain, Former Stock Salesman: I remember well that I thought, “Why is this doing this?” And then I thought, “Well, I’m new here and these people” — like every day in the paper, Charlie Mitchell would have something to say, the J.P. Morgan people would have something to say about how good things were — and I thought, “Well, they know a lot more about this market than I do. I’m fairly new here and I really can’t see why it’s going up.” But then, when they say it can’t go down or if it does go down today, it’ll go back tomorrow, you think, “Well, they really are like God. They know it all and it must be the way it’s going because they say so.”
Narrator: As the market floundered, financial leaders were as optimistic as ever, more so. Just five days before the crash, Thomas Lamont, acting head of the highly conservative Morgan Bank, wrote a letter to President Hoover. “The future appears brilliant. Our securities are the most desirable in the world.” Charles Mitchell assured nervous investors that things had never been better.
Craig Mitchell, Son of Charles E. Mitchell: Practically every business leader in America, and banker, right around the time of 1929, was saying how wonderful things were and the economy had only one way to go and that was up.
“Running for President under the slogan “Rugged Individualism” made it difficult for Hoover to promote massive government intervention in the economy. In 1930, succumbing to pressure from American industrialists, Hoover signed the Hawley-Smoot Tariff which was designed to protect American industry from overseas competition. Passed against the advice of nearly every prominent economist of the time, it was the largest Tariff in American history. (at that time the US was a large export economy with a trade surplus).
Believing in a balanced budget, Hoover’s 1931 economic plan cut federal spending and increased taxes, both of which inhibited individual efforts to spur the economy.
Finally in 1932 Hoover signed legislation creating the Reconstruction Finance Corporation. This act allocated a half billion dollars for loans to banks, corporations, and state governments. Public works projects such as the Golden Gate Bridge and the Los Angeles Aqueduct were built as a result of this plan.
Hoover and the RFC stopped short of meeting one demand of the American masses — federal aid to individuals. Hoover believed that government aid would stifle initiative and create dependency where individual effort was needed. Past governments never resorted to such schemes and the economy managed to rebound. Clearly Hoover and his advisors failed to grasp the scope of the Great Depression.”
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/27/2015 - 19:30
During Monday's flash crashing mayhem, the fragility of the ETF pricing system was exposed for all to see. While common sense dictates that the extreme market moves, trading halts, and tripped circuit breakers may have had quite a lot to do with the epic divergences between NAV and unit pricing, the real culprit was a "computer glitch" caused by a botched "systems change" last Saturday. The fact that the trouble calculating NAVs across nearly 800 mutual funds happened on the very same day as the flash crash is strictly coincidence.
Remembering The Summer Of 1929
08/27/2015 19:00 -0400
Submitted by Jesse
This is one of the best documentaries on the Crash of 1929 if you wish to get a feel for the times. You may find it interesting to watch the whole thing below.I have posted the entire documentary twice before: once, on the 80th anniversary of Black Thursday in 2009, and once before in December of 2007.
I remember the Summer of 1929 being described as unusually hot, with the stock market going up and down like a roller coaster, making investors and pundits almost dizzy. That is, until the great push up to the very height of the market in early September.
It was the laissez-faire abuses of the 1920’s, the reign of supply side economics, the institutionalized political corruption of easy money, an oversized, overly influential and powerful financial/industrial sector that set the stage for the terrible Depression of the 1930’s.
It also gave rise to the many reforms introduced by the FDR administration.
Most of which have been steadily overturned, one by one, by the big money interests who care for nothing but themselves, and would do it again, and again, if allowed to do so.
Most of the scams of the moneyed interests are remarkably simple, and the same over time. At least they are once you scrape away the jargon, the bells and whistles, and paid for policy theories of pedigreed prostitutes.
The titans of Wall Street are no smarter than many smart people who do much more difficult jobs and lead simple, honest lives. But they are driven, they are insatiable, and they are shameless.
Enough people are easily fooled in each generation by well scripted ideological PR campaigns, clever revisions and misrepresentations of history, and the steady drumbeat of slogans and propaganda to allow the same old scams and abuses to come back again. And unfortunately even very smart and powerful and greatly advantaged people are always willing to do anything for money.
Here is a link to the transcript of this documentary.
Narrator: At sea and on land, everyone seemed to be making money. It was a stampede of buying. And major speculators like John Jacob Rascob whipped up the frenzy. He told readers of The Ladies’ Home Journal that now everyone could be rich. September 2nd, Labor Day. It was the hottest day of the year. The markets were closed and people were at the beach. A reporter checked in with astrologer Evangeline to ask about the future of stock prices. Her answer: the Dow Jones could climb to heaven. The very next day, September 3rd, the stock market hit its all-time high.
Ben Karol, Former Newspaper Delivery Boy: My father and I had an ongoing discussion about the stock market. And I used to say, “Pop, everybody’s getting rich but you. You know, you work so hard and you’re never going to make a nickel. All you do is you keep delivering these newspapers and that’s about it. The guy who’s shining shoes is in the stock market, the grocery clerk is in the stock market, the school teacher’s in the stock market. The teller at the bank is in the stock market. Everybody’s in the stock market. You’re the only one that’s not in the stock market.” And he used to sit and laugh and say, “You’ll see. You’ll see. You’ll see.”
Narrator: On September 5th, economist Roger Babson gave a speech to a group of businessmen. “Sooner or later, a crash is coming and it may be terrific.” He’d been saying the same thing for two years, but now, for some reason, investors were listening. The market took a severe dip. They called it the “Babson Break.” The next day, prices stabilized, but several days later, they began to drift lower. Though investors had no way of knowing it, the collapse had already begun
Narrator: In the weeks to follow, the market fluctuated wildly up and down. On September 12th, prices dropped ten percent. They dipped sharply again in the 20s. Stock markets around the world were falling, too. Then, on September 25th, the market suddenly rallied.
Reuben L. Cain, Former Stock Salesman: I remember well that I thought, “Why is this doing this?” And then I thought, “Well, I’m new here and these people” — like every day in the paper, Charlie Mitchell would have something to say, the J.P. Morgan people would have something to say about how good things were — and I thought, “Well, they know a lot more about this market than I do. I’m fairly new here and I really can’t see why it’s going up.” But then, when they say it can’t go down or if it does go down today, it’ll go back tomorrow, you think, “Well, they really are like God. They know it all and it must be the way it’s going because they say so.”
Narrator: As the market floundered, financial leaders were as optimistic as ever, more so. Just five days before the crash, Thomas Lamont, acting head of the highly conservative Morgan Bank, wrote a letter to President Hoover. “The future appears brilliant. Our securities are the most desirable in the world.” Charles Mitchell assured nervous investors that things had never been better.
Craig Mitchell, Son of Charles E. Mitchell: Practically every business leader in America, and banker, right around the time of 1929, was saying how wonderful things were and the economy had only one way to go and that was up.
“Running for President under the slogan “Rugged Individualism” made it difficult for Hoover to promote massive government intervention in the economy. In 1930, succumbing to pressure from American industrialists, Hoover signed the Hawley-Smoot Tariff which was designed to protect American industry from overseas competition. Passed against the advice of nearly every prominent economist of the time, it was the largest Tariff in American history. (at that time the US was a large export economy with a trade surplus).
Believing in a balanced budget, Hoover’s 1931 economic plan cut federal spending and increased taxes, both of which inhibited individual efforts to spur the economy.
Finally in 1932 Hoover signed legislation creating the Reconstruction Finance Corporation. This act allocated a half billion dollars for loans to banks, corporations, and state governments. Public works projects such as the Golden Gate Bridge and the Los Angeles Aqueduct were built as a result of this plan.
Hoover and the RFC stopped short of meeting one demand of the American masses — federal aid to individuals. Hoover believed that government aid would stifle initiative and create dependency where individual effort was needed. Past governments never resorted to such schemes and the economy managed to rebound. Clearly Hoover and his advisors failed to grasp the scope of the Great Depression.”
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 08/27/15 GDP (PBI), Indice ventas casas pendiente
por Fenix » Jue Ago 27, 2015 8:14 pm
US Automaker Panic Button Looms After China's Top Carmaker Warns Of "Grim" Outlook
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/27/2015 - 20:30
Just two weeks ago we explained in a few simple charts why US auotmakers have a major problem looming over them. Today, as Reuters reports, that "if we build them, they will come" strategy has imploded as China's largest automaker warns "the domestic market situation in the second half of the year remains grim." With Q2 US GDP driven by a massive inventory surge, and the majority of that from autos, any hope for a sales rebirth to burn through that over-burden is a long-lost dream now as SAIC sees little to no growth over 2014.
As we previously noted, Automakers just unleashed a massive production surge to keep the dream alive...
With inventories at record highs (having risen for 61 straight months)...
Which would be fine if sales were keeping up - but they are not...
And now the subprime auto loan market is set to collapse... And further, exactly as we warned, the region where sales were supposed to soar is collapsing... As Reuters reports,
China's largest automaker SAIC Motor Corp Ltd warned on Thursday of a grim outlook for the overall vehicle market in the second half of the year, as the slowest economic growth in 25 years and a downturn in the stock market puts off buyers.
Vehicle sales in China, the world's largest car market, rose a meagre 0.4 percent in the first seven months and are predicted to grow 3 percent this year, less than half the 2014 growth rate, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said.
The forecast by SAIC, which has joint ventures with Volkswagen AG and General Motors Co in addition to making its own brand of vehicles, follows similar warnings of a slowdown in sales from several automakers.
"In the short term, although the domestic market situation in the second half of the year remains grim, following the macro economy's stabilized recovery, there are still structural growth opportunities," the company said in its earnings statement.
SAIC forecast overall sales of passenger and commercial vehicles in China to total 24.1 million this year, a slight increase from 2014. It did not elaborate.
* * *
We're gonna need a bigger bailout...
Global Grain Stocks At 30 Year Highs Mean Food Deflation Is Next
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/27/2015 20:26 -0400
Everywhere you look there’s still more evidence that the world economy is grappling with a global deflationary supply glut.
To be sure, this wasn’t supposed to happen.
Trillions in central bank cash and seven years of ZIRP across DMs was supposed to give a defibrillator shock to global demand and trade. Instead, the wealth effect never trickled down (surprise!) and wide open capital markets only served to keep insolvent producers in business, contributing to still more supply as everyone hangs on until the bitter end. As China’s slowdown continues unabated, the commodity hoarding becomes more evident and indeed on Thursday, The International Grains Council reported that global grain stocks are forecast to hit 447 million metric tons, the highest level in 29 years.
From the report:
End-season grain stocks in 2015/16 (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are now placed at 447m t, up fractionally y/y. While carryovers of wheat, barley, sorghum and oats are expected to increase, maize inventories are seen retreating slightly from last year’s levels. Trade in the year ending June 2016 is forecast to be down by 2% y/y. As China has recently been a heavy importer of feedstuffs, including sorghum, barley and DDG, traders are wary of potential changes to state support mechanisms, which could alter buying patterns.
And more from Bloomberg:
Wheat and corn futures in Chicago are heading for a third year of losses after back-to-back bumper global harvests and world wheat production this year will match last season’s record 720 million tons, the IGC said. European wheat crops escaped damage from heat this summer, and prospects for the U.S. corn harvest have improved, said Amy Reynolds, a senior economist at the council.
Corn futures declined 6.2 percent this year on the Chicago Board of Trade and wheat slipped 17 percent. The commodity is trading about 6 percent above a five-year low set in May.
France, the European Union’s largest wheat grower, will harvest 41 million tons of the grain, the IGC said. That’s higher than FranceAgriMer’s outlook earlier this month for a record 40.4 million tons. Surging supplies of grain have filled up silos in Rouen and Dunkirk and sent futures in Paris to a nine-month low.
So in the end, it's simply more oversupply in the face of still depressed demand with no hope of a turnaround on the horizon as China lands hard and consumers are constrained by lackluster wage growth and subpar DM economic "recoveries."
We'll close with what we said on Sunday in "Global Trade In Freefall: Container Freight Rates From Asia To Europe Crash 60% In Three Weeks":
For now, however, printing money no longer equates to boosting global trade. In fact, easy monetary policy now appears to be backfiring, as even the "market" has figured out.
So, sarcasm aside, what really happens next, to both shipping, trade, the global economy and markets? Sadly, unless central planning finally works after 7 years of failing ever upward... this.
* * *
Full IGC report:
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/27/2015 - 20:30
Just two weeks ago we explained in a few simple charts why US auotmakers have a major problem looming over them. Today, as Reuters reports, that "if we build them, they will come" strategy has imploded as China's largest automaker warns "the domestic market situation in the second half of the year remains grim." With Q2 US GDP driven by a massive inventory surge, and the majority of that from autos, any hope for a sales rebirth to burn through that over-burden is a long-lost dream now as SAIC sees little to no growth over 2014.
As we previously noted, Automakers just unleashed a massive production surge to keep the dream alive...
With inventories at record highs (having risen for 61 straight months)...
Which would be fine if sales were keeping up - but they are not...
And now the subprime auto loan market is set to collapse... And further, exactly as we warned, the region where sales were supposed to soar is collapsing... As Reuters reports,
China's largest automaker SAIC Motor Corp Ltd warned on Thursday of a grim outlook for the overall vehicle market in the second half of the year, as the slowest economic growth in 25 years and a downturn in the stock market puts off buyers.
Vehicle sales in China, the world's largest car market, rose a meagre 0.4 percent in the first seven months and are predicted to grow 3 percent this year, less than half the 2014 growth rate, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said.
The forecast by SAIC, which has joint ventures with Volkswagen AG and General Motors Co in addition to making its own brand of vehicles, follows similar warnings of a slowdown in sales from several automakers.
"In the short term, although the domestic market situation in the second half of the year remains grim, following the macro economy's stabilized recovery, there are still structural growth opportunities," the company said in its earnings statement.
SAIC forecast overall sales of passenger and commercial vehicles in China to total 24.1 million this year, a slight increase from 2014. It did not elaborate.
* * *
We're gonna need a bigger bailout...
Global Grain Stocks At 30 Year Highs Mean Food Deflation Is Next
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/27/2015 20:26 -0400
Everywhere you look there’s still more evidence that the world economy is grappling with a global deflationary supply glut.
To be sure, this wasn’t supposed to happen.
Trillions in central bank cash and seven years of ZIRP across DMs was supposed to give a defibrillator shock to global demand and trade. Instead, the wealth effect never trickled down (surprise!) and wide open capital markets only served to keep insolvent producers in business, contributing to still more supply as everyone hangs on until the bitter end. As China’s slowdown continues unabated, the commodity hoarding becomes more evident and indeed on Thursday, The International Grains Council reported that global grain stocks are forecast to hit 447 million metric tons, the highest level in 29 years.
From the report:
End-season grain stocks in 2015/16 (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are now placed at 447m t, up fractionally y/y. While carryovers of wheat, barley, sorghum and oats are expected to increase, maize inventories are seen retreating slightly from last year’s levels. Trade in the year ending June 2016 is forecast to be down by 2% y/y. As China has recently been a heavy importer of feedstuffs, including sorghum, barley and DDG, traders are wary of potential changes to state support mechanisms, which could alter buying patterns.
And more from Bloomberg:
Wheat and corn futures in Chicago are heading for a third year of losses after back-to-back bumper global harvests and world wheat production this year will match last season’s record 720 million tons, the IGC said. European wheat crops escaped damage from heat this summer, and prospects for the U.S. corn harvest have improved, said Amy Reynolds, a senior economist at the council.
Corn futures declined 6.2 percent this year on the Chicago Board of Trade and wheat slipped 17 percent. The commodity is trading about 6 percent above a five-year low set in May.
France, the European Union’s largest wheat grower, will harvest 41 million tons of the grain, the IGC said. That’s higher than FranceAgriMer’s outlook earlier this month for a record 40.4 million tons. Surging supplies of grain have filled up silos in Rouen and Dunkirk and sent futures in Paris to a nine-month low.
So in the end, it's simply more oversupply in the face of still depressed demand with no hope of a turnaround on the horizon as China lands hard and consumers are constrained by lackluster wage growth and subpar DM economic "recoveries."
We'll close with what we said on Sunday in "Global Trade In Freefall: Container Freight Rates From Asia To Europe Crash 60% In Three Weeks":
For now, however, printing money no longer equates to boosting global trade. In fact, easy monetary policy now appears to be backfiring, as even the "market" has figured out.
So, sarcasm aside, what really happens next, to both shipping, trade, the global economy and markets? Sadly, unless central planning finally works after 7 years of failing ever upward... this.
* * *
Full IGC report:
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 08/27/15 GDP (PBI), Indice ventas casas pendiente
por Fenix » Jue Ago 27, 2015 8:15 pm
The Great Wall Of Money
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/27/2015 21:00 -0400
Excerpted from Hindesight Letters (authored by Ben Davis),
The Great Wall Of Money.
China is in severe trouble and that trouble has already been reverberating around EM exporters for a number of years. It is just one of many dollar currency peg countries that have experienced tightening conditions because of higher US interest rate guidance and dollar strength. An unwelcome addition to their own domestic issues, but always a circular outcome, as they are inextricably linked to the US by their Bretton Woods II relationship. By devaluing and thus de-stabilising the 'nominal' anchor for Asian exchange rates, they will crush the growth engine of the developed countries on whose consumption they so rely on.
Since 2009, we have forecast and documented the unwinding of the Bretton Woods II currency system. Financialisation of our economies and markets, which escalated post-2008 at the instigation of governments and central bankers, is going to go into full reverse for all asset classes. Economies and markets are so entwined that a drop in asset classes will lead the world back into recession. In 2013, we believed the odds had tilted firmly towards increasing debt deflation at the hands of China. Large current account deficits had led to unsustainable debt creation, and as a consequence the trade deficit countries were the first to experience a severe financial crisis. However, on the other side of the equation, the surplus countries were now experiencing their reaction to the crisis.
In November 2013, we wrote: "The deleveraging process which began in 2008 has been a slow burner but is likely now in full swing. The deflationary risks are very high. China is the driver. All eyes on China."
We conceive that this slow-burner of deleveraging, which has occurred since the 2008 crisis, is potentially about to engulf all asset prices. We are beginning to think the unthinkable – that just maybe asset prices will back up 20 to 30% and fast and that through the autumn we could experience even greater price depreciation.
Almost 8 years on from the GFC, the Dow Jones Industrials are perched on the edge of a sharp drop. Will the Ghost of 1937 revisit us eight years on from the Great Crash of 1929, when U.S. stocks and the world economy got roiled all over again? This is already unfolding as we speak. Sean Corrigan's macro analysis in our ‘MidWeek Macro Musings and Money, Macro and Markets’ at HindeSightletters.com has highlighted where the fissures are opening in the global economy and markets. We are posting samples of our work from May to July in this letter to share with you how we began to believe that a global asset crash was at hand.
The Yuan movement may well send more Chinese capital floating across the globe into financial assets and real estate, such as those at Pink Floyd's and London's iconic Battersea Power Station, but it will be short-lived. The debt deleveraging which has been engulfing Emerging Markets has just begun to turn into a ranging inferno, which will eventually burn down all, especially overpriced global assets.
Since the GFC, 'The Great Wall of Money' that Bretton Woods II has furnished via its vendor-financing relationship, has masked the deleveraging of our world economy. The Great Wall is about to collapse and fall.
* * *
The full article is available and ready to download from Hindesight's homepage, or simply click the front cover below for the PDF
In it we discuss the following in a load more detail:
A Probable Trinity - In October 2010, we began our oft repeated narrative about the vulnerability of the Bretton Woods II monetary system in the provocatively entitled letter - 'The World Monetary Earthquake - The Dash from Cash' (The Orient Perspective).
Yuan More Time - Despite PBoC protestations, this Chinese currency move is not a one off event. There will be many more devaluations because, as you will read, FX reserves can abate rapidly. Besides which, we believe the markets have them on the back foot.
Taels from Cathay - As Sean (Corrigan) put it in the July/Aug Money Macro & Markets (MMM): "Wherever you look around the fringes of China—and, by extension, Greater Asia—it is hard to avoid evidence of the woes being suffered.
The Great Wall of Money FALLS - We wrote in a recent Investor Letter: "What is increasingly evident is that market participants are increasingly embroiled in a reflexive relationship between central bank actions, guidance and price action. The more the market moves contrary to central bank desires – i.e. downwards - the more the central bank injects the bubble money and reassures markets with the promise of more infusions of its rich elixir.”
Anglo Saxon APP'mosphere Polluted - A strong dollar currency has created headwinds for the U.S. economy through a range of channels. The latest actions of the Chinese central bank will intensify the negative impact by fostering more dollar appreciation. The U.S. already runs a significant trade deficit with China that will only be exacerbated now. The dollar has already become too restrictive and the global carry trade, which borrowed capital from the East (and lately Europe), was parked in the U.S. and other safe Anglo-Saxon currencies and markets. This capital is very vulnerable.
Chinese Smog Pollutes Albion - The resource sector collapse and the likely end of a 32-year-cycle in 2011 has signalled that these countries are near the end of receiving the foreign capital with which they balance their books. Bar a flurry of Chinese flight capital, housing prices will begin to revert to their mean as the debt deleveraging impulse sends the Chinese smog over Albion and its commonwealth compadres.
ReMeBer Gold? This year, I spoke to RealVision TV and stated that the market was trend-ready in gold and that, as managers of a long-only gold fund, we were trying to be agnostic and position ourselves for a break either way. I did, however, mention that when our models are trend-ready, we often get a false sharp break one way first, only to see a snap back within a few days or weeks.
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/27/2015 21:00 -0400
Excerpted from Hindesight Letters (authored by Ben Davis),
The Great Wall Of Money.
China is in severe trouble and that trouble has already been reverberating around EM exporters for a number of years. It is just one of many dollar currency peg countries that have experienced tightening conditions because of higher US interest rate guidance and dollar strength. An unwelcome addition to their own domestic issues, but always a circular outcome, as they are inextricably linked to the US by their Bretton Woods II relationship. By devaluing and thus de-stabilising the 'nominal' anchor for Asian exchange rates, they will crush the growth engine of the developed countries on whose consumption they so rely on.
Since 2009, we have forecast and documented the unwinding of the Bretton Woods II currency system. Financialisation of our economies and markets, which escalated post-2008 at the instigation of governments and central bankers, is going to go into full reverse for all asset classes. Economies and markets are so entwined that a drop in asset classes will lead the world back into recession. In 2013, we believed the odds had tilted firmly towards increasing debt deflation at the hands of China. Large current account deficits had led to unsustainable debt creation, and as a consequence the trade deficit countries were the first to experience a severe financial crisis. However, on the other side of the equation, the surplus countries were now experiencing their reaction to the crisis.
In November 2013, we wrote: "The deleveraging process which began in 2008 has been a slow burner but is likely now in full swing. The deflationary risks are very high. China is the driver. All eyes on China."
We conceive that this slow-burner of deleveraging, which has occurred since the 2008 crisis, is potentially about to engulf all asset prices. We are beginning to think the unthinkable – that just maybe asset prices will back up 20 to 30% and fast and that through the autumn we could experience even greater price depreciation.
Almost 8 years on from the GFC, the Dow Jones Industrials are perched on the edge of a sharp drop. Will the Ghost of 1937 revisit us eight years on from the Great Crash of 1929, when U.S. stocks and the world economy got roiled all over again? This is already unfolding as we speak. Sean Corrigan's macro analysis in our ‘MidWeek Macro Musings and Money, Macro and Markets’ at HindeSightletters.com has highlighted where the fissures are opening in the global economy and markets. We are posting samples of our work from May to July in this letter to share with you how we began to believe that a global asset crash was at hand.
The Yuan movement may well send more Chinese capital floating across the globe into financial assets and real estate, such as those at Pink Floyd's and London's iconic Battersea Power Station, but it will be short-lived. The debt deleveraging which has been engulfing Emerging Markets has just begun to turn into a ranging inferno, which will eventually burn down all, especially overpriced global assets.
Since the GFC, 'The Great Wall of Money' that Bretton Woods II has furnished via its vendor-financing relationship, has masked the deleveraging of our world economy. The Great Wall is about to collapse and fall.
* * *
The full article is available and ready to download from Hindesight's homepage, or simply click the front cover below for the PDF
In it we discuss the following in a load more detail:
A Probable Trinity - In October 2010, we began our oft repeated narrative about the vulnerability of the Bretton Woods II monetary system in the provocatively entitled letter - 'The World Monetary Earthquake - The Dash from Cash' (The Orient Perspective).
Yuan More Time - Despite PBoC protestations, this Chinese currency move is not a one off event. There will be many more devaluations because, as you will read, FX reserves can abate rapidly. Besides which, we believe the markets have them on the back foot.
Taels from Cathay - As Sean (Corrigan) put it in the July/Aug Money Macro & Markets (MMM): "Wherever you look around the fringes of China—and, by extension, Greater Asia—it is hard to avoid evidence of the woes being suffered.
The Great Wall of Money FALLS - We wrote in a recent Investor Letter: "What is increasingly evident is that market participants are increasingly embroiled in a reflexive relationship between central bank actions, guidance and price action. The more the market moves contrary to central bank desires – i.e. downwards - the more the central bank injects the bubble money and reassures markets with the promise of more infusions of its rich elixir.”
Anglo Saxon APP'mosphere Polluted - A strong dollar currency has created headwinds for the U.S. economy through a range of channels. The latest actions of the Chinese central bank will intensify the negative impact by fostering more dollar appreciation. The U.S. already runs a significant trade deficit with China that will only be exacerbated now. The dollar has already become too restrictive and the global carry trade, which borrowed capital from the East (and lately Europe), was parked in the U.S. and other safe Anglo-Saxon currencies and markets. This capital is very vulnerable.
Chinese Smog Pollutes Albion - The resource sector collapse and the likely end of a 32-year-cycle in 2011 has signalled that these countries are near the end of receiving the foreign capital with which they balance their books. Bar a flurry of Chinese flight capital, housing prices will begin to revert to their mean as the debt deleveraging impulse sends the Chinese smog over Albion and its commonwealth compadres.
ReMeBer Gold? This year, I spoke to RealVision TV and stated that the market was trend-ready in gold and that, as managers of a long-only gold fund, we were trying to be agnostic and position ourselves for a break either way. I did, however, mention that when our models are trend-ready, we often get a false sharp break one way first, only to see a snap back within a few days or weeks.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 08/27/15 GDP (PBI), Indice ventas casas pendiente
por Fenix » Jue Ago 27, 2015 8:15 pm
What China's Treasury Liquidation Means: $1 Trillion QE In Reverse
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/27/2015 18:45 -0400
Earlier today, Bloomberg - citing the ubiquitous "people familiar with the matter" - confirmed what we’ve been pounding the table on for months; namely that China is liquidating its UST holdings.
As we outlined in July, from the first of the year through June, China looked to have sold somewhere around $107 billion worth of US paper. While that might have seemed like a breakneck pace back then, it was nothing compared to what would transpire in the last two weeks of August. Following the devaluation of the yuan, the PBoC found itself in the awkward position of having to intervene openly in the FX market, despite the fact that the new currency regime was supposed to represent a shift towards a more market-determined exchange rate. That intervention has come at a steep cost - around $106 billion according to Soc Gen. In other words, stabilizing the yuan in the wake of the devaluation has resulted in the sale of more than $100 billion in USTs from China’s FX reserves.
That dramatic drawdown has an equal and opposite effect on liquidity. That is, it serves to tighten money markets, thus working at cross purposes with policy rate cuts. The result: each FX intervention (i.e. each round of UST liquidation) must be offset with either an RRR cut, or with emergency liquidity injections via hundreds of billions in reverse repos and short- and medium-term lending ops.
It appears that all of the above is now better understood than it was a month ago, but what’s still not well understand is the impact this will have on the US economy and, by extension, on US monetary policy, and furthermore, there seems to be some confusion as to just how dramatic the Treasury liquidation might end up being.
Recall that China’s move to devalue the yuan and this week’s subsequent benchmark lending rate cut have served to blow up one of the world’s most popular carry trades. As one currency trader told Bloomberg on Tuesday, "it’s a terrible time to be long carry, increased volatility -- which I think we’ll stay with -- will continue to be terrible for carry. The period is over for carry trades."
Here's a look at how a rules-based carry strategy designed to capture yield differences would have fared in the universe of G10 CCYs (note the blow ups around the SNB's franc shocker and the yuan deval):
In short, the music stopped on August 11 and to the extent that anyone was still dancing going into this week, the PBoC’s decision to cut the lending rate along with RRR buried the trade once and for all.
Estimating the size of that trade should be a good indicator for just how expensive it will be - i.e. how much in Treasurys China will have to liquidate - to keep the yuan stable. The question, as BofAML puts it, is this: "can China afford the unwinding of carry trades?"
The first step is estimating the total size of the trade. Although estimates vary, BofAML puts the figure at between $1 trillion and $1.1 trillion. Here’s more:
As analyzed above, the size of RMB carry could be quite high and thus exert downward pressure on RMB. But the PBoC should have scope to defend its currency if necessary. The PBoC’s toolbox includes its $3.65tn FX reserves (at end-July), as well as measurements to tighten FX controls on individuals, corporate and banks, if necessary, including imposing stricter requirements on NOP, among others.
That said, we doubt if the PBoC will persistently intervene as rapid decline of FX reserves undermines market confidence anyway and imposes challenges to the PBoC. Alternatively, the PBoC could impose stricter FX controls but that would be considered as a backward move of capital account opening up. Nevertheless, we believe the PBoC intervention will still have spillover effects on the market.
In other words, if this entire $1 trillion trade gets unwound, China will need to offset the pressure by either i) draining its reserves, or ii) taking a big step backwards on capital account liberalization. The latter option would be bad news for Beijing’s efforts to liberalize markets and land the yuan in the SDR basket.
Of course, as noted yesterday and as tipped by SocGen earlier this week, the liquidation of $1 trillion in FX reserves would put enormous pressure on domestic liquidity, tightening money markets meaningfully, and forcing the PBoC to cut RRR 10 times (assuming 50 bps intervals). As BofA notes, China can’t "afford another liquidity squeeze like June 2013 given very poor sentiment nowadays and China’s economic downturn."
Putting the pieces together here - and here is the critically important takeaway - we know that the size of the RMB carry trade could be as high as $1.1 trillion. If that entire trade is unwound, it would require China to liquidate a commensurate amount of its reserves in order to keep control of the yuan - or else resort to FX controls. Here's the point: if China were to liquidate $1 trillion in reserves (i.e. USTs), it would effectively offset 60% of QE3.
Furthermore, based on Citi's review of the academic literature which shows that for every $500 billion in EM reserves liquidated, the yield on the US 10Y rises 108bps, if the PBoC were to use its reserves to offset a hypothetical unwind of the entire RMB carry trade, it would put around 200 bps of upward pressure on 10Y yields.
So in effect, China's UST dumping is QE in reverse - and on a massive scale. Facing this kind of pressure the FOMC will at the very least need to exercise an exorbitant amount of caution before tightening policy and at the most, embark on another round of asset purchases lest China's devaluation and attendant FX interventions should be allowed to decimate whatever part of the US "recovery" is actually real.
Submitted by Tyler D.
08/27/2015 18:45 -0400
Earlier today, Bloomberg - citing the ubiquitous "people familiar with the matter" - confirmed what we’ve been pounding the table on for months; namely that China is liquidating its UST holdings.
As we outlined in July, from the first of the year through June, China looked to have sold somewhere around $107 billion worth of US paper. While that might have seemed like a breakneck pace back then, it was nothing compared to what would transpire in the last two weeks of August. Following the devaluation of the yuan, the PBoC found itself in the awkward position of having to intervene openly in the FX market, despite the fact that the new currency regime was supposed to represent a shift towards a more market-determined exchange rate. That intervention has come at a steep cost - around $106 billion according to Soc Gen. In other words, stabilizing the yuan in the wake of the devaluation has resulted in the sale of more than $100 billion in USTs from China’s FX reserves.
That dramatic drawdown has an equal and opposite effect on liquidity. That is, it serves to tighten money markets, thus working at cross purposes with policy rate cuts. The result: each FX intervention (i.e. each round of UST liquidation) must be offset with either an RRR cut, or with emergency liquidity injections via hundreds of billions in reverse repos and short- and medium-term lending ops.
It appears that all of the above is now better understood than it was a month ago, but what’s still not well understand is the impact this will have on the US economy and, by extension, on US monetary policy, and furthermore, there seems to be some confusion as to just how dramatic the Treasury liquidation might end up being.
Recall that China’s move to devalue the yuan and this week’s subsequent benchmark lending rate cut have served to blow up one of the world’s most popular carry trades. As one currency trader told Bloomberg on Tuesday, "it’s a terrible time to be long carry, increased volatility -- which I think we’ll stay with -- will continue to be terrible for carry. The period is over for carry trades."
Here's a look at how a rules-based carry strategy designed to capture yield differences would have fared in the universe of G10 CCYs (note the blow ups around the SNB's franc shocker and the yuan deval):
In short, the music stopped on August 11 and to the extent that anyone was still dancing going into this week, the PBoC’s decision to cut the lending rate along with RRR buried the trade once and for all.
Estimating the size of that trade should be a good indicator for just how expensive it will be - i.e. how much in Treasurys China will have to liquidate - to keep the yuan stable. The question, as BofAML puts it, is this: "can China afford the unwinding of carry trades?"
The first step is estimating the total size of the trade. Although estimates vary, BofAML puts the figure at between $1 trillion and $1.1 trillion. Here’s more:
As analyzed above, the size of RMB carry could be quite high and thus exert downward pressure on RMB. But the PBoC should have scope to defend its currency if necessary. The PBoC’s toolbox includes its $3.65tn FX reserves (at end-July), as well as measurements to tighten FX controls on individuals, corporate and banks, if necessary, including imposing stricter requirements on NOP, among others.
That said, we doubt if the PBoC will persistently intervene as rapid decline of FX reserves undermines market confidence anyway and imposes challenges to the PBoC. Alternatively, the PBoC could impose stricter FX controls but that would be considered as a backward move of capital account opening up. Nevertheless, we believe the PBoC intervention will still have spillover effects on the market.
In other words, if this entire $1 trillion trade gets unwound, China will need to offset the pressure by either i) draining its reserves, or ii) taking a big step backwards on capital account liberalization. The latter option would be bad news for Beijing’s efforts to liberalize markets and land the yuan in the SDR basket.
Of course, as noted yesterday and as tipped by SocGen earlier this week, the liquidation of $1 trillion in FX reserves would put enormous pressure on domestic liquidity, tightening money markets meaningfully, and forcing the PBoC to cut RRR 10 times (assuming 50 bps intervals). As BofA notes, China can’t "afford another liquidity squeeze like June 2013 given very poor sentiment nowadays and China’s economic downturn."
Putting the pieces together here - and here is the critically important takeaway - we know that the size of the RMB carry trade could be as high as $1.1 trillion. If that entire trade is unwound, it would require China to liquidate a commensurate amount of its reserves in order to keep control of the yuan - or else resort to FX controls. Here's the point: if China were to liquidate $1 trillion in reserves (i.e. USTs), it would effectively offset 60% of QE3.
Furthermore, based on Citi's review of the academic literature which shows that for every $500 billion in EM reserves liquidated, the yield on the US 10Y rises 108bps, if the PBoC were to use its reserves to offset a hypothetical unwind of the entire RMB carry trade, it would put around 200 bps of upward pressure on 10Y yields.
So in effect, China's UST dumping is QE in reverse - and on a massive scale. Facing this kind of pressure the FOMC will at the very least need to exercise an exorbitant amount of caution before tightening policy and at the most, embark on another round of asset purchases lest China's devaluation and attendant FX interventions should be allowed to decimate whatever part of the US "recovery" is actually real.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 08/27/15 GDP (PBI), Indice ventas casas pendiente
por admin » Jue Ago 27, 2015 8:54 pm
Crude Oil 43.33 0.77 1.81%
Brent Crude 48.00 0.44 0.93%
Gold 1129.2 6.6 0.59%
Silver 14.475 0.038 0.26%
E-mini DJIA 16635 -15 -0.09%
E-mini S&P 500 1986.75
Brent Crude 48.00 0.44 0.93%
Gold 1129.2 6.6 0.59%
Silver 14.475 0.038 0.26%
E-mini DJIA 16635 -15 -0.09%
E-mini S&P 500 1986.75
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Re: Jueves 08/27/15 GDP (PBI), Indice ventas casas pendiente
por admin » Jue Ago 27, 2015 8:54 pm
Japan: Nikkei 225 19023.28 448.84 2.42%
Hang Seng 22213.56 375.02 1.72%
Shanghai Composite 3125.40 41.80 1.36%
S&P BSE Sensex 26231.19 516.53 2.01%
Australia: S&P/ASX 5258.00 24.70 0.47%
UK: FTSE 100 6192.03 212.83 3.56%
DJIA 16654.77 369.26 2.27%
Asia Dow 2808.42 55.82 2.03%
Global Dow 2372.92
Hang Seng 22213.56 375.02 1.72%
Shanghai Composite 3125.40 41.80 1.36%
S&P BSE Sensex 26231.19 516.53 2.01%
Australia: S&P/ASX 5258.00 24.70 0.47%
UK: FTSE 100 6192.03 212.83 3.56%
DJIA 16654.77 369.26 2.27%
Asia Dow 2808.42 55.82 2.03%
Global Dow 2372.92
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Re: Jueves 08/27/15 GDP (PBI), Indice ventas casas pendiente
por admin » Jue Ago 27, 2015 8:55 pm
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1245 -0.0001
Yen (USD/JPY) 121.09 0.06
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.5422 0.0020
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7198 0.0032
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9659 -0.0005
WSJ Dollar Index
Yen (USD/JPY) 121.09 0.06
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.5422 0.0020
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7198 0.0032
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9659 -0.0005
WSJ Dollar Index
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Re: Jueves 08/27/15 GDP (PBI), Indice ventas casas pendiente
por admin » Jue Ago 27, 2015 8:59 pm
Wall Street sigue subiendo en medio de la recuperación de los mercados mundiales
ENLARGE
Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Dan Strumpf y Josie Cox
Jueves, 27 de Agosto de 2015 11:09 EDT
Las acciones subieron en Wall Street por segundo día consecutivo, con el Promedio Industrial Dow Jones borrando sus pérdidas de la semana, luego de que un renovado optimismo sobre la economía estadounidense aliviara las preocupaciones de los inversionistas acerca del ritmo de crecimiento global.
Las ganancias se produjeron en medio de un amplio repunte en los mercados financieros, que habían sido golpeados por la ansiedad sobre la desaceleración de China, después de que la segunda economía más grande del mundo sorprendiera a los inversionistas con una devaluación de su moneda días atrás.
El promedio industrial Dow Jones subió 369.26 puntos, o 2,3%, para cerrar a 16.654,77. Junto con aumento de 619 puntos del miércoles, los “blue chips”, como se conoce popularmente a las acciones que conforman este índice, llevan ganado 1,2% en esta semana.
El S&P 500 ganó 47.15 puntos, o 2,4%, cerrando en 1.987,66 puntos. El Nasdaq Composite añadió 115.17 puntos, o un 2,45%, para cerrar en 4.812,71.
Estas ganancias son las más recientes en una semana de grandes oscilaciones en el precio de las acciones. Los operadores afirman que las profundas caídas del lunes y el martes dejaron a los inversionistas deseosos de comprar barato, aunque muchos siguen considerando que los grandes vaivenes del mercado están aquí para quedarse, mientras la incertidumbre acerca de un posible aumento de las tasas de interés por parte de la Reserva Federal sigue sin definirse.
En medio de un aumento de las materias primas, los precios del petróleo se dispararon también por encima de 10%, su mayor alza porcentual en seis años.
Más de una hora después de la apertura, el Promedio Industrial Dow Jones subía 288 puntos o un 1,8% a 16.576 puntos, el S&P 500 avanzaba 37 puntos o un 1,8% a 1.977 puntos y el Nasdaq Composite suma 92 puntos o un 1,9% a 4.790 puntos.
El Producto Interno Bruto estadounidense, que mide los bienes y servicios producidos en el país, se expandió un 3,7% interanual en el segundo trimestre, según cifras publicadas el jueves por el Departamento de Comercio. En la primera estimación, el PIB había registrado un crecimiento del 2,3% en el segundo trimestre. Los economistas consultados por The Wall Street Journal esperaban una tasa del 3,3%. Se hicieron revisiones al alza del gasto de los consumidores y la inversión empresarial que los analistas calificaron de alentadoras.
Además, las solicitudes semanales iniciales de subsidios por desempleo bajaron en 6.000 a un total desestacionalizado de 271.000 en la semana que concluyó el 22 de agosto, según cifras del Departamento de Trabajo, que sugieren que el mercado laboral estadounidense está en buena forma. Los economistas consultados por The Wall Street Journal esperaban un total de 273.000 solicitudes nuevas de subsidios.
Los estrategas de Rabobank indicaron en una nota a sus clientes que los mercados están en un “equilibrio frágil”.
ENLARGE
Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Dan Strumpf y Josie Cox
Jueves, 27 de Agosto de 2015 11:09 EDT
Las acciones subieron en Wall Street por segundo día consecutivo, con el Promedio Industrial Dow Jones borrando sus pérdidas de la semana, luego de que un renovado optimismo sobre la economía estadounidense aliviara las preocupaciones de los inversionistas acerca del ritmo de crecimiento global.
Las ganancias se produjeron en medio de un amplio repunte en los mercados financieros, que habían sido golpeados por la ansiedad sobre la desaceleración de China, después de que la segunda economía más grande del mundo sorprendiera a los inversionistas con una devaluación de su moneda días atrás.
El promedio industrial Dow Jones subió 369.26 puntos, o 2,3%, para cerrar a 16.654,77. Junto con aumento de 619 puntos del miércoles, los “blue chips”, como se conoce popularmente a las acciones que conforman este índice, llevan ganado 1,2% en esta semana.
El S&P 500 ganó 47.15 puntos, o 2,4%, cerrando en 1.987,66 puntos. El Nasdaq Composite añadió 115.17 puntos, o un 2,45%, para cerrar en 4.812,71.
Estas ganancias son las más recientes en una semana de grandes oscilaciones en el precio de las acciones. Los operadores afirman que las profundas caídas del lunes y el martes dejaron a los inversionistas deseosos de comprar barato, aunque muchos siguen considerando que los grandes vaivenes del mercado están aquí para quedarse, mientras la incertidumbre acerca de un posible aumento de las tasas de interés por parte de la Reserva Federal sigue sin definirse.
En medio de un aumento de las materias primas, los precios del petróleo se dispararon también por encima de 10%, su mayor alza porcentual en seis años.
Más de una hora después de la apertura, el Promedio Industrial Dow Jones subía 288 puntos o un 1,8% a 16.576 puntos, el S&P 500 avanzaba 37 puntos o un 1,8% a 1.977 puntos y el Nasdaq Composite suma 92 puntos o un 1,9% a 4.790 puntos.
El Producto Interno Bruto estadounidense, que mide los bienes y servicios producidos en el país, se expandió un 3,7% interanual en el segundo trimestre, según cifras publicadas el jueves por el Departamento de Comercio. En la primera estimación, el PIB había registrado un crecimiento del 2,3% en el segundo trimestre. Los economistas consultados por The Wall Street Journal esperaban una tasa del 3,3%. Se hicieron revisiones al alza del gasto de los consumidores y la inversión empresarial que los analistas calificaron de alentadoras.
Además, las solicitudes semanales iniciales de subsidios por desempleo bajaron en 6.000 a un total desestacionalizado de 271.000 en la semana que concluyó el 22 de agosto, según cifras del Departamento de Trabajo, que sugieren que el mercado laboral estadounidense está en buena forma. Los economistas consultados por The Wall Street Journal esperaban un total de 273.000 solicitudes nuevas de subsidios.
Los estrategas de Rabobank indicaron en una nota a sus clientes que los mercados están en un “equilibrio frágil”.
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