Lunes 21/09/15 Ventas casas existentes

[Fenix]

¿Habrá un efecto Fed?

Lunes, 21 de Setiembre del 2015 - 15:53:00

¿Frustración? ¿decepción? Pero…¿desde cuando mantener unas condiciones financieras excesivamente laxas es negativo para los activos de riesgo?.

De todo lo escuchado en el último FOMC, me quedo con la revisión a la baja de las previsiones de tipos objetivo a medio plazo….. tipos estables y un mensaje dovish para el futuro.

Ya, seguro que me responden que la incertidumbre nunca es buena. Tienen razón: no lo es. Pero, el ser humano se acostumbra sin grandes problemas a la incertidumbre. Y los inversores, como seres humanos que son, también. ¿No hemos vivido en plena incertidumbre desde la Gran Recesión? Recuerden: Crisis del EUR, Grecia, geopolítica, económica, financiera, China….todas estas fases con los inversores apostando por activos de riesgo sobre dos argumentos: 1. Liquidez; 2. Precios atractivos. ¿Y la recuperación económica? También, aunque luego no ha supuesto una frustración que los datos macro no fueran cumpliendo las expectativas. ¿Ha cambiado algo?

La decisión de la Fed debe ser encuadrada en la necesidad de no acentuar los factores de debilidad que hay en el mercado. Me refiero a las dudas sobre la solidez de la economía china y la inestabilidad en los mercados emergentes. La Fed admite la mejora económica en Estados Unidos y muestra su confianza en que las presiones a la baja en estos momentos sobre la inflación sean transitorias. De esta forma, anticipa que lo más probable es que se trate de un aplazamiento de la decisión.


Nosotros consideramos que el aplazamiento será hasta la próxima primavera….¿incertidumbre sobre la subida de tipos? Para nada.

Pero, todo el argumento anterior anterior tiene sólo una debilidad: China. Al final, es todo lo que vaya llegando de China lo que realmente puede sacarnos del impasse a corto plazo actual. Es importante entonces que los mercados reduzcan su volatilidad en primer lugar y que más tarde las autoridades chinas nos convenzan de que no se enfrentan a una recesión. Todo esto para que se retomen las subidas en las bolsas y veamos tipos de interés y spread de riesgo más coherentes. Sean los que sean.

¿En qué fijarse a partir de ahora? En el precio del crudo, en el EUR…al final, en cualquier indicador de mercado que muestre más firmeza desde los inversores. La volatilidad cotizada ayuda, con niveles del VIX entre el 17/20 % propicios para que vuelva el apetito por el riesgo. Niveles del 21 % como los actuales son demasiado elevados como sinónimo de una gestión ordenada de la cartera.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España



The Truth About S&P 500 Earnings: No Growth For 7 Quarters, With A Revenue Recession On Top
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/21/2015 - 20:04

With the global economy sliding into recession, the one strawman repeatedly used by straight-to-CNBC pundits to justify some mythical case for US decoupling has been that US corporate profits are "fine." Here is the truth.



Putin's Plan: Moscow Handles Syria, U.S. Looks After Iraq
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/21/2015 - 19:30

Russia has now confirmed that it is intervening in the Syrian war on the side of the Assad government; and, as Al-Arabiya's Azeem Ibrahim notes, the response of the U.S. betrays its impotent incredulity. Russia is poised to return to the Middle East, from which it was ejected with the collapse of the USSR. The United States seems to be telling Russia to go ahead, because, as Raghida Dergham explains, it is unwilling to engage – though it is not yet ready to fully retreat.


"Emerging Markets Are On The Verge Of Liquidation" Top Performing Hedge Fund Manager Warns; "QE4 Is Coming"
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/21/2015 - 19:00

Having accurately foreseen the current events instead of just levering up on even more beta and praying the BTFDers return and bail out his underwater positions, John Burbank's opinion actually matters as does his outlook on what happens next. What he foresees is not pleasant.

[Fenix]

Soros, Icahn And Major New Players Rushing Into Gold: "Things Are In The Works As We Speak"
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/21/2015 - 17:30

"I do believe that markets ultimately prevail. I do believe that supply and demand will ultimately prevail. I’m confident that we will see that occur... The fact there are some very substantial new players coming into the sector and taking positions in gold and silver... I think that’s showing that things will change and I think things are in the works as we speak."



The End Of Magical Thinking: Money Cannot Manufacture Resources
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/21/2015 - 18:30

Our current economic policy suffers from a fatal degree of magical thinking: sufficient new resources will emerge if the price is high enough. As any fourth grader will tell you, a finite system will not yield unlimited resources. But that perspective is not shared by those controlling the printing presses. And so they print and print and print, yet remain flummoxed when supply (and increasingly, demand for that matter) does not increase the way they expect. Is this any way to run an economy? Or a finite planet for that matter?


The "Economissed" Track Record Revisited: Last Month, 82% Of "Experts" Expected A September Fed Hike
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/21/2015 - 15:55

Because the only people worse at their jobs than weathermen are economists...

[Fenix]

Mandatory Breathalyzers Could Soon Be In Every Car If Feds Have Their Way
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/21/2015 - 15:22

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers is currently working on a plan to put alcohol detection systems in every vehicle. The plan, called Driver Alcohol Detection System for Safety (DADSS), is still in its early stages, and while they are calling this technology “non-invasive” but it tests the content of your blood every time you get into your vehicle, which by its very nature is extremely invasive.


TSLA Dumped, AAPL Pumped As iCar Planned For 2019
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/21/2015 13:47 -0400

The iCar is coming...

* *APPLE SAID TO SET 2019 TARGET SHIP DATE FOR ELECTRIC CAR: WSJ
* *WSJ CITES PEOPLE FAMILIAR WITH APPLE PLANS FOR ELECTRIC CAR

As The Wall Street Journal reports,

Apple Inc. is accelerating efforts to build an electric car, designating it internally as a “committed project” and setting a target ship date for 2019, according to people familiar with the matter.



The go-ahead came after the company spent more than a year investigating the feasibility of an Apple-branded car, including meetings with two groups of government officials in California. Leaders of the project, code-named Titan , have been given permission to triple the 600-person team, the people familiar with the matter said.



Apple has hired experts in driverless cars, but the people familiar with Apple’s plans said the Cupertino, Calif., company doesn’t currently plan to make its first electric vehicle fully autonomous. That capability is part of the product’s long-term plans, the people familiar with the matter said.



...



There are many unanswered questions about Apple’s automotive foray. It isn’t clear whether Apple has a manufacturing partner to become the car equivalent of Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., the Taiwanese contract manufacturer that builds most iPhones and is known by the trade name Foxconn. Most major auto makers build and run their own factories, but that hasn’t been Apple’s strategy with iPhones or iPads. Contract manufacturing in the auto industry usually is limited to a few niche models.



The 2019 target is ambitious. Building a car is a complex endeavor, even more so for a company without any experience. Once Apple completes its designs and prototypes, a vehicle would still need to undergo a litany of tests before it could clear regulatory hurdles.



In Apple’s parlance, a “ship date” doesn’t necessarily mean the date that customers receive a new product; it can also mean the date that engineers sign off on the product’s main features.

And Tesla is not happy...

* *TESLA FALLS TO SESSION LOWS AFTER APPLE ELECTRIC CAR DATE





Will coal get a bid from the exuberant expectations of a fleet of iCars cruising the world and all needing much more electricity generation?

[Fenix]

"Time's Up" - Government Shutdown Odds Spike To 75%
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/21/2015 - 14:44

Two weeks ago, when no one was talking about the possibility of a government shutdown, we warned it was coming. Today, as Politico reports, with very little time left to reach a deal, budget experts project a 75% chance of a shutdown. No matter how immaterial in terms of their economic impacts, government shutdowns create uncertainty and thus influence Fed decisions and as SocGen notes, with the odds of an October liftoff low, a government shutdown could lower them further. Although funding issues should be resolved by the December FOMC meeting, there is a small chance that the fiscal standoff extends into the end of the year (i.e. due to a temporary continuing resolution), creating another deterrent for the Fed.

A Century Of Fed Fools (Or How To Turn $1000 Into $40 Since 1913)
09/21/2015 13:56 -0400

Submitted by Anthony Sanders

The Federal Reserve system was created in December 1913 with the stroke of the pen by then President Woodrow Wilson.

Since that time, consumer purchasing power has fallen from $1,000 in December 1913 to … $40 today.



Since 2007, the purchasing power of the dollar continues to fall along with average hourly wage growth YoY.



Thanks a heap, Woody.

wilsonfgold

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says iPhones helps balance out U.S. Income Inequality.

Let them eat iPnones?