Martes 19/10/10, Inicios de casas, Goldman, BAC, Coca Cola

[Arnold]

Silver Exports From China May Slump by 40% This Year
October 19, 2010, 3:03 AM EDT

Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Silver exports from China, the world’s largest, may drop about 40 percent this year as domestic demand from industry and investors climbs, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co.

Shipments may decline from about 3,500 metric tons in 2009, said Feng Juncong, chief analyst at the state-owned Antaike, without providing a specific forecast. Customs data show exports plunged almost 60 percent to 970 tons in the first eight months. Cancellation of an export rebate in 2008 is also hurting shipments, she said.

Reduced exports may bolster prices that are trading near a 30-year high on speculation that governments worldwide will take further steps to stimulate their economies, weakening currencies and increasing demand for assets that are a store of value. China, the third-largest producer after Peru and Mexico, revoked export rebates in August 2008 to curb use of natural resources.

“There is huge demand in China this year and that has affected exports, which were already hurt after the tax rebate was abolished,” said Ng Cheng Thye, head of bullion at Standard Bank Asia. “The demand is coming from all areas, including jewelry, investment and fabrication and this has resulted in a physical market shortage in the Far East.”

The metal for immediate delivery touched $24.92 an ounce on Oct. 14, the highest price since September 1980, and traded at $24.2750 at 2:28 p.m. in Singapore. Industrial applications for silver, including electrical conductors and batteries, represent about half global demand.

Silver Rally

“China may sharply reduce its silver exports this year following the scrapping of the rebate and as domestic demand picked up amid expectations for higher inflation,” Feng said. This year’s 5,100-ton quota is unlikely to be fully used, she said.

Silver has rallied 44 percent this year, outperforming gold and copper. In the short term, prices will be between $20.50 and $25.50, GFMS Chairman Philip Klapwijk said on Oct. 16. “Silver is likely nearing a top now, and that it has more downside in the short term than upside,” he said. “But we remain bullish in the long term.”

China’s silver production, including mined, by-product output and recycled material, grew by an average 14.9 percent every year in the 20 years since 1990 to 10,348 tons in 2009, Feng said. Growth was mainly because of the fast-growing production of lead, zinc and copper, which generates silver as a by-product, Feng said.

Output Drops

The country’s silver output dropped 1.9 percent in the first eight months to 7,445 tons, she said. About 60 percent of China’s silver mined output is in the form of by-product of base metals, according to Antaike estimates.

An expected drop in lead and zinc concentrate supplies will affect domestic smelter production, weighing on China’s silver output growth, she added.

“There are Chinese investors now hoarding silver, along with other resources, amid anticipation of higher inflation,” Feng said. “China is short of resources so these investors believe the metals will be more valuable in the future.”

--Feiwen Rong. With reporting by Glenys Sim in Singapore and Xiao Yu in Xiamen. Editors: Richard Dobson, Jake Lloyd-Smith.

[RCHF]

Energy & Oil Prices
OIL ($/bbl)

PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME
Nymex Crude Future 81.20 -1.88 -2.26 12:14
Dated Brent Spot 81.91 -1.62 -1.94 12:24
WTI Cushing Spot 81.24 -1.84 -2.21 12:03

[RCHF]

Afirma que volatilidad del dólar será más baja que en los procesos electorales anteriores
10:34 Scotiabank prevé que tipo de cambio cerrará el 2011 en S/. 2.67


Lima, oct. 19 (ANDINA). El tipo de cambio cerraría el 2011 en 2.67 nuevos soles por dólar, ya que la apreciación del sol se ha convertido en una tendencia de largo plazo en Perú, afirmó el banco Scotiabank.
“Hemos revisado nuestra proyección de tipo de cambio para el año 2011 de 2.72 a 2.67 soles por dólar, en términos de fin de período, y de 2.80 a 2.75 soles en términos de promedio anual”, señaló el analista del Departamento de Estudios Económicos del Scotiabank, Mario Guerrero.

Explicó que el fundamento para la tendencia apreciatoria de la moneda local es estructural pues se basa en la fortaleza de las cuentas externas y el proceso interno de desdolarización, reflejado en un cambio de portafolios a favor de activos en soles.

Además, no se ven razones para que estos fundamentos cambien en el 2011, comentó en el Reporte Semanal del banco.

Asimismo, indicó que el riesgo de error es excepcionalmente alto debido a que existen factores internos temporales y un contexto internacional de desorden en los mercados monetarios.

“A la incertidumbre de la dirección del dólar y las monedas en general, se agrega la incertidumbre propia del ciclo electoral. Por tanto, la trayectoria cambiaria del próximo año puede ser algo más volátil”, indicó.

Señaló además que las proyecciones trimestrales del Scotiabank suponen un incremento en el tipo de cambio, hasta volver a superar los 2.80 soles en la primera mitad del año, antes de regresar a su tendencia apreciatoria, pasadas las elecciones.

“La proyección del Scotiabank considera que durante el período electoral la trayectoria del tipo de cambio se aproximaría al escenario de volatilidad promedio, mientras que en el período post electoral, la apreciación del sol podría ser algo más intensa que en los correspondientes períodos anteriores”, dijo.

Asimismo, sostuvo que al cierre del 2010 se proyecta un tipo de cambio de 2.75 soles, pero ello dependerá de hasta qué punto el Banco Central de Reserva (BCR) frena la presión apreciatoria hasta fin de año.

“Al margen de los capitales de corto plazo, el incremento tan fuerte en los precios de los metales recientemente debería llevar a una apreciación mayor a la que se viene dando”, sostuvo.

Guerrero indicó también que el escenario cambiario del 2011 presenta ciertos riesgos internos y externos, aunque la sensación es que los mismos están relativamente acotados.

Explicó que, históricamente, los procesos electorales han provocado un aumento temporal de la volatilidad cambiaria y de la percepción de riesgo país.

Mencionó que esto fue lo que sucedió en las elecciones generales del 2001 como del 2006, aunque con patrones diferentes en función de las expectativas electorales de cada coyuntura en particular, reflejadas en las encuestas de intención de voto.

Precisó que para esta proyección, el Scotiabank considera la volatilidad cambiaria promedio de ambos períodos electorales como referente para lo que será el período electoral del año 2011 y, en general, la percepción del banco es que la volatilidad será más baja que en los procesos electorales anteriores.

Finalmente, consideró probable que, de no haber sorpresas electorales, Perú reciba una mejora en su calificación de riesgo crediticio.

[admin]

VIX up 19.59

Oil down 80.99

-100.70

El indice del dolar 1.3% al alza.

Yields down 2.50%

[admin]

UBS recomienda comprar algunas mineras, dicen que los commodities seguiran su carrera por las acciones del Fed. (cambiaran el juego)


Commodities to Extend Rally on Federal Reserve's `Game Changer,' UBS Says
By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen - Oct 19, 2010 4:32 AM ET

Copper, which peaked at $8,940 in July 2008, has gained about 30 percent over the past year, boosted by shrinking stockpiles, increased demand and the weaker dollar.

Oct. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Gavin Wendt, a director at Mine Life Resources Ltd. in Sydney, talks about his investment strategy for gold, copper and crude oil. Wendt also discusses BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group abandoning a plan to create the world’s largest iron-ore exporter after opposition from regulators in Europe and Asia. He speaks to Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)

Commodities will rally if the U.S. Federal Reserve eases monetary policy next month, according to UBS AG, which describes a likely second round of quantitative easing as a “game changer” for copper, gold and palladium.

The additional measures will increase capital flows to emerging markets, reinforcing commodity-intensive growth, analysts Julien Garran, Tom Price and Edel Tully said in a note. The Swiss bank raised its forecast for palladium next year by 19 percent, for gold by 8 percent and for copper by 7 percent. Other top picks included iron ore, thermal coal and zinc.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week that additional stimulus may be warranted because inflation is too low and unemployment too high. The comments have prompted a decline in the dollar, boosting commodities including gold, which traded near a record today. The renewed easing may total more than $1 trillion, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“Recent Fed commentary makes it a virtual certainty that we will get QE2 at the next meeting on Nov. 3,” yesterday’s note said, referring to additional quantitative easing in short form. This “will be a game changer for commodities,” it said, with easing set to “prolong the bull market in commodities.”

Copper in London rose as much as 0.6 percent to $8,492 a metric ton today, the highest price since July 2008. The metal, which peaked at $8,940 in July 2008, has gained about 30 percent over the past year, boosted by shrinking stockpiles, increased demand and the weaker dollar. UBS raised its 2011 forecast for the metal to $3.68 a pound ($8,113 a ton) from $3.45.

Gold’s Record

Palladium for immediate delivery gained to a nine-year high of $605.13 an ounce on Oct. 14, while spot gold touched an all- time high of $1,387.35 an ounce the same day. UBS’s palladium forecast for 2011 was raised to $625, while gold’s was increased to $1,400, according to the note.

After lowering U.S. interest rates almost to zero and buying $1.7 trillion of securities, policy makers are discussing expanding the Fed’s balance sheet by purchasing Treasuries and strategies for raising inflation expectations, according to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Sept. 21 meeting.

Additional quantitative easing “means that strong, international capital flows will reinforce already powerful domestic credit creation in emerging markets,” according to the UBS note. “That should flow through to robust, commodity- intensive growth in emerging markets, while the developed world struggles in the face of higher commodity prices.”

Top equity picks included BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company; Rio Tinto Group, the third-largest; PT Adaro Energy, Indonesia’s second-largest coal producer; and Teck Resources Ltd., Canada’s biggest base-metals miner. All have a “buy” rating, the UBS note said.

Nickel and aluminum are among the least-preferred commodities because supply of the metals is “relatively unconstrained,” the note said.

At the Fed’s meeting next month, central bank purchases of about $500 billion of Treasuries may be announced, according to a note from Goldman Sachs sent last week. Given the outlook for continued economic weakness “the size of the purchase program will ultimately total at least $1 trillion, possibly considerably more,” the Goldman note said.

[admin]

Se habla de que el Fed comprara hasta $1 trillon de securities.

-105.65

[jonibol]

En Lima una de las pocas que suben es Volcan

[admin]

Canada mantuvo sus intereses en 1%

-104.82

[admin]

Los hedge funds atraen $19 billones en el ultimo trimestre.

[admin]

Bajando mas -127.19

[carl_]

wti 80.56, usindex 78.24, euro 1.379.

[carl_]

Copper prices slipped by 0.2% on the LME and were trading at $8465/tonne till 3.45 pm IST today. The red metal prices declined mainly on the back of strength in the DX today. On the MCX, red metal prices declined sharply by 0.7%, as appreciation of the Indian Rupee (INR) further exerted pressure on the copper prices on the Indian platform today. Copper inventories on the LME decreased by 500 tonnes to reach at 369,950 tonnes today. Another factor that kept copper prices under pressure is slow GDP growth expectations of China. The data is expected to be released on Thursday

[admin]

Consistentemente a la baja

-122.87

[carl_]

sgg up 3.2%

[carl_]

credicorp alcanzo hoy su punto maximo, unbelievable. 127.85