Miércoles 30/09/15 reporte privado del empleo (ADP)

[Fenix]

10:10 Fitch prevé que la economía de EE.UU. crezca un 2,5% en 2015
La agencia de califiación Fitch prevé que la economía de EE.UU. crezca un 2,5% en 2015 y en 2016. Espera que crezca un 2,3% en 2017.

Mantiene su previsión económica de la euro zona sin cambios. Espera para Japón un crecimiento del 0,2% en 2015 y un 1,2% en 2016.

10:30 Inventarios de energía en EE.UU.
Inventarios de crudo 3,955 millonres frente 102.000 barriles esperados.
Inventarios de destilados -267.000 barriles frente -471.000 barriles esperados.
Inventarios gasolina 3,254 millones frente -40.000 barriles esperados.

[Fenix]

11:41 Fuertes subidas en las bolsas, pero los inversores no terminan de fiarse
Se empieza a hablar de una recesión de EE.UU. en los próximos años

12:30 Futuro Nasdaq 100: Pierde la media móvil
Comprar
Pierde la media móvil que guiaba la normalidad correctiva desde 2009 lo que hace probable que haya entrado en un terreno correctivo complejo en el medio plazo. A corto presenta regula la sobreventa tras alcanzar los 3800 puntos, futuro soporte clave.

Recomendación: COMPRAR

Eduardo Faus
Original de Renta 4 Banco

12:00 Subidas en uno de los peores día del año para los inversores
Históricamente el 30 de septiembre es uno de los peores día del año para los inversores, concretamente el quinto día. Únicamente el 38% de ellos han sido positivos en el S&P 500 como vemos en el gráfico adjunto de Bespoke que ha tomado datos desde 1945.

[Fenix]

14:57 Bono EEUU diciembre. Alcanza el nivel de resistencia
Análisis técnico SEB
Si la subida desde la banda de la media de 55 sesiones es un movimiento correctivo entonces el movimiento ideal al alza debería finalizar en la zona de 129-10/13.

Resistencias 128-25+ 128-28+ 129-10+ 129-13+
Soportes 128-15 128-07+ 127-28 127-26+

14:32 HSBC es el último banco en decir que el euro va a subir
El euro está preparado para fortalecerse un 0,9 por ciento frente al dólar este trimestre ya que los estrategas del HSBC dudan de que el Banco Central Europeo esté dispuesto a ampliar su programa de flexibilización cuantitativa para estimular el crecimiento económico y la inflación.

El HSBC se ha unido a Morgan Stanley, Bank of America y Citigroup en la mejora de sus pronósticos para el euro dólar.

"Si intentan depreciar la moneda a través de una flexibilización cuantitativa adicional, pensamos que va a ser muy difícil", dijo David Bloom, jefe global de estrategia cambiaria de HSBC.

Bloom ha elevado su previsión para el euro dólar a $1,20 para finales de 2016 desde $1,10 anterior. "No se sorprenda, el euro tiene fuerza. La QE ha provocado una caída desde $1,40 a $1,05. Ahora va a subir de nuevo a $1,20."


¿Dónde poner el dinero?

Mi�rcoles, 30 de Setiembre del 2015 - 15:53:00

¿Me dejan ser optimistas? Hace dos semanas les hacía esta pregunta. Y desde ese momento hemos visto como las bolsas han recortado, las primas de riesgo han subido, las rentabilidades de la deuda pública han caído y los precios de commodities han intentado recortar. ¿Y el USD? depende, aunque en general está más fuerte.

¿Y por qué parece todo tan negativo? Más allá de la recuperación de los activos de riesgo el viernes (curiosamente, porque la Presidenta de la Fed nos volvió a preparar para una subida de tipos oficiales en diciembre…tipos al alza, luego bolsas al alza…coherente, ¿verdad?), lo cierto es que preocupa el escenario de recesión económica mundial. ¿Tenemos datos para validarlo? Para nada. Pero los mercados anticipan el futuro y hoy por hoy están anticipando con su comportamiento y con los niveles alcanzados la temida recesión.

Trend is your friend….mis analistas técnicos ya nos advierten con recortes adicionales de dos dígitos para las bolsas mundiales en este mes de octubre que comenzamos esta semana. Al final, buscan que se cumpla la regla no escrita de “sin información adicional, la mejor información es el pasado”. Tan sencilla y al mismo tiempo tan compleja ahora. De hecho, el riesgo que espero estén calibrando los bancos centrales es el de forzado desapalancamiento si se mantiene la pérdida de valor de los activos financieros. Pero, por otro lado, sin duda también dudan de la efectividad de la política monetaria excepcional si finalmente los presagios negativos a nivel económico se materializan.


Sí, les entiendo….¿qué hacer entonces con el dinero?.

Esta es nuestra recomendación “a medio plazo”: bolsa (desarrollada) y deuda pública; cortos, para intentar compensar el riesgo, de crédito y commodities. Y mucho efectivo…ya veremos lo que hacemos con ello en el futuro.

¿Cómo se han comportado los mercados en el último año? ¿y comparado con nuestras recomendaciones?.

Sean benévolos: son tiempos difíciles. Realmente, deuda mejor, bolsas neutrales, commodities peor y crédito igual.

¿Recuerdan la estrategia de rotación de carteras? ¿commodities y el oro como activos alternativos?. Lo dicho: tiempos duros.

Esperemos que el futuro, a medio plazo, no lo sea tanto. Veremos.


José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

[Fenix]

Peak Japaganda: Advisers Call For More QE (But Admit Failure Of QE); China's Yuan Hits 3-Week High
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/29/2015 - 21:23

Asian markets are bouncing modestly off a weak US session, buoyed by more unbelievable propaganda from Japan. Abe's proclamations that "deflationary mindset" has been shrugged off was met with calls for more stimulus, more debt monetization, and an admission by Etsuro Honda (Abe's closest adviser) that Japan "is not growing positively" and more QE is required despite trillions of Yen in money-printing having failed miserably, warning that raising taxes to pay for extra budget "would be suicidal." Japanese data was a disaster with factory output unexpectedly dropping 0.5% and retail trade missing.



Gold: "The More Ridiculous The System Gets, The More Valuable It Becomes"
09/29/2015 20:40 -0400
Submitted by Simon Black

Nearly four months ago on June 2nd, something very unusual happened in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.

The price of propane actually became negative, hitting an unbelievable -0.625 cents per gallon.

It’s hard to believe that the price of a productive commodity could become so beat down by the market that producers would practically have to pay you to take it off their hands.

Now that’s cheap. And completely nuts.

This actually happens from time to time with certain commodities. And there are a number of reasons for it.

A negative price might imply a dramatic oversupply where the cost of storing the commodity exceeds the benefit from owning it.

Sometimes even something like real estate can have a negative value—perhaps when a building is in such decrepit condition that the cost of tearing down the structure exceeds the land value.

But sometimes a negative price simply means that markets are completely broken.

The primary function of a marketplace is what’s called ‘price discovery’. This is an incredibly important role where buyers and sellers collectively determine the true value of a product, service, or asset.

Think of it like an auction: if you really want to know what that old baseball card is worth, put it on eBay and let the market tell you.

The problem is that, these days, markets are so heavily manipulated that the price discovery mechanism has been broken.

Consider that the most important ‘price’ in the world is the price of money, i.e. interest rates.

The price of money dictates, or at least heavily influences, the price of so many other major assets and commodities. Stocks. Bonds. Oil. Home prices.

And yet, rather than leave this all-important price to be set by the market, the price of money is established by an unelected committee of central bankers.

So by setting the price of money, they are effectively influencing the price of just about EVERYTHING. Including propane in Alberta.

Then of course there’s the more nefarious price manipulation, much of which is coming to light now.

There was the appalling LIBOR scandal back in 2012 when multiple banks confessed to criminal charges of conspiring to fix interest rates.

Investors in the United States have filed a number of lawsuits alleging that banks and brokers have rigged the market for US Treasury bonds.

The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has recently accused French oil company Total and British firm BP of manipulating natural gas prices.

And both the US Department of Justice and the Swiss Competition Commission are investigating several banks for colluding to manipulate gold and silver prices.

So in addition to markets being broken, there’s also an extraordinary amount of manipulation going on… which means that, quite often, prices mean absolutely nothing.

Consider gold and silver, two obvious long-term stores of value whose prices have been in decline.

Bear in mind these are paper prices, i.e. prices set in broken commodities markets, heavily influenced by central banks, and criminally manipulated by investment banks.

So is this price really a valid indicator of their worth? Not by a long shot.

Think about the ever-widening gulf between the ‘paper’ price of silver and the ‘physical’ price of silver… evidenced by the massive shortage in real, physical silver right now.

The paper prices of gold and silver are set (and manipulated) in financial markets through commodities exchanges.

It’s not like traders are huddled around bags of coins bidding on which one of them will haul it away.

Instead they’re dealing with contracts… pieces of paper (or electrons) passed around by traders and bankers.

In fact, the gold and silver contracts traded in commodities exchanges are designed especially for people who have no intention of ever taking physical possession of the metal.

Case in point: the paper price for silver traded in Chicago is based on a contract that is supposed to end with physical silver being delivered to the buyer.

But the contract specifications set by the exchange allow up to 10% FEWER ounces of silver to be delivered than what was specified in the contract.

And in London, the London Bullion Market Association’s “Good Delivery” rules allow silver bars to be up to 25% less than what was specified in the contract.

Amazing.

And it certainly raises the question– who would possibly purchase 1,000 ounces of silver if the exchange was only required to deliver 750?

Anyone who actually wants to own real gold and silver would rather buy from a local coin dealer.

Futures contracts are for bankers and traders. Paper prices are for economists and reporters.

The current shortage of silver, particularly in North America, is a much better reflection of its value than heavily manipulated commodities markets.

All these contracts and prices truly reflect is how broken the financial system really is… which is actually precisely why you would want to own more gold and silver.

Seriously, how messed up is our financial system when asset prices across the world can be so easily rigged by the very institutions that demand our trust?

* * *

This system is pure insanity, as are its prices.

As such, I don’t let their prices guide my life. It wouldn’t bother me if the price of gold went negative, just like propane in Alberta.

After all, I’m not trading paper currency for gold, just to trade it back for more paper currency if the ‘price’ goes up.

The idea behind buying gold is to swap paper money for something real.

Banks can rig its price all they want; gold’s true value comes from its function as a long-term form of savings and a hedge against a broken financial system.

And the more ridiculous the system gets, the more valuable it becomes.

[Fenix]

Jim Cramer Will No Longer Respond To "Twitter Trolls"
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 08:55


Zandi Says "We're Pumping Out Lots Of Jobs" As ADP Manufacturing Jobs Plunge Most Since Jan 2010
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 08:23

September isn't even over yet, but ADP already knows how many jobs were added for the full month of September: precisely 200K, which just happens to be the consensus expectation for Friday's NFP number.


ECB Will Boost QE By 120% To €2.4 Trillion, S&P Predicts
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 08:12

When a lot of Keynesian cowbell doesn't work, the only cure for the deflationary fever must be more Keynesian cowbell which explains why Japan is about to double down on Abenomics, and why the ECB will almost invariably expand PSPP now that the deflationary boogeyman is back in Europe. Indeed, S&P is now out calling for ECB Q€ to last for nearly two years longer than originally planned and for the size of the program to be expanded to a Dr. Evil-ish €2,400,000,000,000.

[Fenix]

Bob 'The Bear' Janjuah Warns "Fed 'Put' Unlikely Until S&P Hits 1500"
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 11:23

"financial markets are NOT yet pricing for a recession, rather they are merely flirting with the idea. I suspect this largely reflects faith/hope in policymakers within market participants. The events of the past few weeks, both going into and after the most recent BOJ and FOMC meetings, should give those heavily invested in policymaker faith/hope a lot of food for thought... the next Fed “put” is not likely until the S&P 500 is trading in the 1500s at least (so more likely to be a Q1 2016 item rather than Q4 2015); and in terms of what the Fed could do, clearly QE4 has to be in the Fed’s toolkit"


JPY Surges, EUR Purges As Month-End Flows Spark FXnado
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 11:16

USDJPY is tumbling, cracking back below the 120.00 tractor beam (and catching down to Nikkei 225's decoupling). EURUSD is also plunging, down 100 pips in the last few hours... it appears it is not just EM FX that is seeing volatility increase as The Majors start flip-flopping ahead of Friday's payrolls data..


Stocks Explode Higher As Gartman Doubles Down On Bear Market Call
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 10:52

As of this moment the S&P is soaring and is set for the 8th best gain in 2015. Why? Here is one reason, from the latest Gartman letter: "Essentially repeating what we said here yesterday, there are still many who deny that this is a bear market, we fear that it has a good distance to the downside yet to travel. Merely to get to “The Box” shall take the S&P to 1420? 1550! Rallies are to be sold."

[Fenix]

6 Out Of 6 Fed Surveys Say US Is In Recession
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 10:28

For the first time since 2009, all six major Fed regional activity surveys are in contraction territory... time to hike rates?


Stocks, Commodities Surge On 'QE4 Hope' After Chicago PMI Collapse
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 10:14
"Bad news is good news" again... for the global money-printing reflation trade...



China Bought Gold With Proceeds From Record Sale Of US Treasurys
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 09:59

Overnight we got a second confirmation of China's golden appetite, when the PBOC announced that China's official gold holdings had risen again in August, increasing by 520,000 troy ounces, or 16.2 tons (which is more than 3 times the entire registered gold inventory in the Comex vault system), and bringing the new total to 54.5 million ounces, or 1,694 tons of gold. In dollar terms, Chinese gold holdings rose from $59.2 billion at the end of July to $61.8 billion. The punchline: in a month in which China sold a record $107 billion notional in Treasurys, it had no qualms about rotating the sale proceeds into gold.

[Fenix]

Retail Investors Have Never Been More Bullish Based On Record VIX ETF Selling
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 15:29 -0400

Back in late 2012, when the former chief of the NY Fed's markets group, aka the head of the PPT, Brian Sack was replaced with the current head of the NY Fed's trading desk, Simon Potter, we observed something curious: there was a dramatic, and record, surge in non-commercial bearish VIX bets the moment Potter took over, which courtesy of the reflexivity relationship between the VIX and the underlying market (since exposed everywhere, read: "Conspiracy "Fact" - VIX Manipulation Runs The Entire Market"), helped push stocks higher.

Ever since then, the infamous VIX slam in the last hour of trading, or during other opportune intervals in the trading day, has served as a valuable and efficient means to halt any selloff momentum and to reallign the market with its centrally-planning mandated path: higher.

In fact, it has gotten so that trading of VIX (and its close cousin, the USDJPY carry trade) has replaced trading the S&P courtesy of the far greater embedded leverage available to those two asset classes.

Fast forward to the recent surge in market volatility, when courtesy of JPM we find something curious: it is no longer the Fed, nor its capital markets proxy, Citadel, nor even the banks or hedge funds that are the primary sellers of volatility. It is retail investors themselves!

Sure, institutionals did rush to sell vol, mostly in the form of surge in the VIX put-to-call ratio, but the jump was somewhat timid by historical standards. JPM explains:

The sharp rise in equity volatility with the VIX spiking to levels last seen in August 2011 is raising questions about volatility flows. One flow that reveals the intentions of institutional investors is related to VIX options. The ratio of the open interest of VIX put options over the open interest of VIX call options has been rising since August 17th, suggesting that institutional investors are increasingly positioned for a decline in vol similar to what they did during the October 2014 volatility episode (Figure 6). But what is also evident from Figure 6 is that the recent rise of the ratio of the open interest of VIX put options over the open interest of VIX call options rose by a lot less in the recent correction vs. the rise seen during August 2011. At the time, in August 2011, that ratio had tripled to 1.2x vs. 0.6x currently. One explanation for this discrepancy is that the vol of vol (VVIX) has spiked by so much in the most recent correction, to 170% vs. a peak of 130% in August 2011, that it reduced on the margin the incentive by institutional investors to buy VIX puts.



But while institutions may not have rushed in to sell volatility by the boatload, perhaps having gotten very burned when the VIX soared above 50 on August 24, retail investors - with far smaller balance sheets - are perfectly happy to take on the risk that even the "big boys" are shying away from. To wit:

Retail investors sold VIX ETFs and flocked into inverse VIX ETFs in recent weeks in record amounts, in even bigger amounts than those seen during August 2011. That is, retail investors have shown much greater appetite to sell volatility from here than institutional investors trading VIX options. This is shown in Figure 7 where the 4-week flow into VIX ETFs minus the flow into Inverse VIX ETFs declined to -$3bn, well beyond the previous record low of -$1.8bn seen in August 2011 or October 2014. Retail investors bought a record $1.4bn of inverse VIX ETFs during the last week of August alone. At the same time, they have been heavy sellers of VIX ETFs by around $400m per week over the past two weeks.

In other words, if only looking at VIX (and inverse VIX) ETF flows, retail investors have never been more bullish: they are even more bullish than institutions! JPM confirms as much: "the greater bullishness of retail investors is also seen in equity flows which outpaced bond flows in recent weeks."

Ironically, the central-planning hostage taker of the entire market has managed to turn the hostages to do its bidding. Call it Stockholm Syndrome gone bad.

And yet, this is somewhat confusing: just a few hours ago, Goldman was claiming that investors sentiment has never been more bearish:

Our S&P 500 Sentiment Indicator based on futures positioning data sits at 0 on a scale from 0 to 100, where it has been for seven of the past eight weeks, the longest stretch in its eight-year history.

Which is true... if one ignores retail investors who seemingly have never been more bullish. Which also explains our conclusion to the earlier Goldman post: "As for everyone being bearish, we'll just take Goldman's "honest" word for that."

"Honest" word indeed.

As for retail investors who are now massively net short VIX ETFs: we hope there isn't another risk-on moment that send the VIX back into the stratosphere. Last time we checked, the Fed was not in the "bailing out the small retail investor" business.

[Fenix]

For The First Time During This Business Cycle, The US Hasn't Added A Single Manufacturing Job This Year
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 14:31

According to ADP, for the first time this decade, the US hasn't created a single manufacturing job for the entire year. In fact, it has lost some 6,600 jobs. But don't worry: we hear "economic recoveries" driven by hiring of minimum wage retailers, low-wage teachers, and of course, waiters and bartenders, are all the rage in this business cycle.


Japanese Pension Funds Find New Ways To Lose Money, Will Blow Retirement Funds On Junk Bonds
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 14:12

With Japan's economy already sliding into its 5th recession of the past decade, once pensioners open their retirement statements in a few weeks and find a 15% plunge in their purchasing power, Japan can skip recession and proceed straight to a consumer-driven recession. But wait, there's more: because if pensioners are angry now, wait until they learn that they have lost everything, after buying all those junk bonds that Carl Icahn is now actively selling with both hands and feet, because: JAPAN PENSION FUND TO INVEST IN JUNK BONDS, NIKKEI SAYS. And just like that, with or without Krugman's active economic advice, Japan's fate is sealed because much to Japan's dismay, "junk" bonds are called that for a reason.


According To Goldman, These Are The Two Things Which Could Unleash A Year-End Market Surge
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 13:19 -0400

Yesterday morning, perhaps in a competition with Dennis Gartman who can be more bearish, Goldman Sachs - whose bullishness on the economy we have mocked for the past 5 years - once again capitulated, and lowered not only its S&P profit earnings forecast for the next two years (cutting 2015 from $120 to $109), but also dropped its year end price target from 2100 to 2000. As part of its latest Mea Culpa, Goldman laid out the following bearish catalysts:

* A lower path of profits is an obvious reason to lower a price target but the risks for the index level and P/E multiple have also increased. In 2016, we expect US GDP will rise by just 2.4% and the world ex-US will expand at 3.7%, down from our prior assumptions of 2.8% and 4.3%, respectively. China is growing much slower than we previously assumed. Our CAI suggests economic growth is about 100 bp slower than the official GDP data indicates.
* We expect the Fed will begin its long-awaited tightening process this December. Historically, rising short-term interest rates have been associated with declining P/E multiples. We expect the Treasury curve to bear flatten as short-rates rise at a faster pace than ten-year note yields during the next few years. Rising bond yields are consistent with lower multiples. Using our estimates, the P/E will slide from 16.4x today to 16.1x by 2017.
* Finally, the political landscape in Washington, DC remains unstable following the resignation of Speaker Boehner. The federal debt ceiling will be reached in November. Precedent suggests raising the debt limit will be contentious and may rattle investors.
* Our baseline forecast is that the US economy will grow at a modest pace, earnings will rise, and the S&P 500 index will climb slowly while the P/E multiple declines as interest rates rise (see Exhibit 2). “Flat is the new up” will be the 2016 investor refrain.



So is the market doomed to rise only 5% into year end to the now-reduced 2000 price target, which of course is Goldman's euphemism for a major drop from the current 1900 levels? Like every savvy cephalopod Goldman, which was wrong on the "above trend" recovery and subsequent market reaction, has chosen to hedge in case it is wrong on the way down.

According to Goldman there are two things that can unleash a rally into year end, and crush Goldman's bearish revision: they are investor sentiment and buybacks. In other words, because supposedly everyone is bearish, and because company CEOs have to hit record stock-performance driven bogeys and will massively buy back their stock after the blackout period is finished, the biggest risk is to the upside.

To wit:

Light investor positioning and corporate buybacks represent the largest upside risks to our year-end target. Our S&P 500 Sentiment Indicator based on futures positioning data sits at 0 on a scale from 0 to 100, where it has been for seven of the past eight weeks, the longest stretch in its eight-year history. Historically, indicator readings below 10 or above 90 have been statistically significant contrarian indicators, with very light positions indicating short-term tactical upside (+2% to +4% during the next 4 to 10 weeks).





Nearly 25% of annual corporate buybacks occur during November and December. S&P 500 buyback authorizations have exceeded $450 billion through the first three quarters of 2015, and we expect gross repurchases by S&P 500 companies will total more than $600 billion in 2015. Buybacks represent the single largest source of demand for US equities. Most firms are currently in their blackout periods ahead of 3Q earnings reports. The typical year-end surge in buyback activity could help boost the market above our year-end target.



Of course, the irony of the above is that Goldman's buyback desk is by far the most active one on Wall Street, so if anyone knows what happens with buybacks - or has any determination over their pace - it is Goldman. As for everyone being bearish, we'll just take Goldman's "honest" word for that.

[Fenix]

Obamanomics: Food Stamp Growth Outpaces Jobs In Illinois During "Recovery"
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 12:55

During the "recovery" from the Great Recession, the land of Lincoln had more people enter the food-stamps program than start jobs. Food-stamps growth in Illinois has outpaced jobs creation by a 5-4 margin... and stunningly, has put 25 people on food stamps for every manufacturing job created during the recession recovery.


Citi Discovers The Culprit For Poor Jobs Data...
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 12:36

The shark jumping continues as Citi says its analysts "have found serious residual seasonality in payroll reports for the period from August through October"...

[Fenix]

Commodity Giant Trafigura Founder, Top Shareholder Claude Dauphin Has Died
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 11:41

In a tragic, if very odd coincidence, a day after we postulated that the real "commodity-trader" risk may not be Glencore after all, but its just as vast, if even more levered competitor, Trafigura, moments ago the privately-held company (with publicly traded bonds), announced that its founder and biggest shareholder, french billionaire Claude Dauphin has died at the age of 64.


Becoming China: From Shale Malinvestment Boom To "We Are Overbuilt" Bust
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 19:30

Nothing highlighted a malinvestment-driven "if we build it they will come" boom (and subsequence complete bust) better than China's so-called "ghost cities." But now, thanks to The Fed's "lower for longer" enabling of every and any zombie company in the world, many previous oil-boomtowns across Texas and North Dakota are facing a real-estate crisis. As Bloomberg reports, the former bustling "man-camps" of towns like Williston, ND are now desolate with hundreds of skeletons or wood & cement as predictions that fracking would sustain production and a robust tax base for decades have failed completely.

[Fenix]

Government Avoids Shutdown: House Passes Bill To Keep Funding Through December 11
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 17:37

Last week, following the shocking news that House Speaker John Boehner had resigned, we analyzed the "flowchart" of next steps for both the US government shutdown and the debt ceiling showdown. The most urgent one, that of the imminent shutdown or passage of a continuing resolution, was as follows: "Boehner will move to advance a "clean" CR -- with the help of Democrats -- before the new fiscal year starts on Thursday." And he will succeed. This is precisely what happened moments ago when following a 277-151 vote in the House, Congress sent legislation to Obama to prevent a government shutdown and will keep federal agencies funded through Dec. 11.


It's Time To Get Your Gold Out Of The U.S.
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 18:55

Most foreign countries have similar regulations concerning the import and export of gold bullion and collectible coins. These regulations tend to track U.S. rules closely, and generally, as long as people follow them, there isn’t much friction over international travel with precious metals. Recently, however, we’ve been hearing reports that some foreign countries are starting to ask more questions, and require more searches, when someone declares that they are transporting gold or other precious-metal coins.



80% Of All New Home Buyers In Irvine Are Chinese
Submitted by Tyler D.
09/30/2015 - 18:41

"We are seeing more globalization as Southern California has become a destination for international buyers," said Mark Hughes, chief operating officer with First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California market. "Eighty percent of new construction in Irvine last year was sold to Chinese buyers. International buyers are driving home prices up and sometimes out of reach for many local residents."
____________________
is an earthquake zone?

[Fenix]

Oct 1 - Fed's Dudley: Will Make Sure QE Withdrawal Won't Roil Markets
Submitted by Pivotfarm on 09/30/2015 19:55 -0400

Follow The Market Madness with Voice and Text on FinancialJuice

EMOTION MOVING MARKETS NOW: 24/100 EXTREME FEAR

PREVIOUS CLOSE: 12/100 EXTREME FEAR

ONE WEEK AGO: 31/100 FEAR

ONE MONTH AGO: 14/100 EXTREME FEAR

ONE YEAR AGO: 12/100 EXTREME FEAR

Put and Call Options: EXTREME FEAR During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 14.57% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this is still among the highest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme fear on the part of investors.

Market Volatility: NEUTRAL The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 24.50. This is a neutral reading and indicates that market risks appear low.

Stock Price Strength: FEAR The number of stocks hitting 52-week lows exceeds the number hitting highs and is at the lower end of its range, indicating fear.



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UNUSUAL ACTIVITY

APPS Director purchase 127K @ 1.57

JOY Director purchase 12,200 A $ 14.77 , 4,346 A $ 14.8 , 2,854 A $ 14.81 , 2,265 A $ 14.82 , 2,435 A $ 14.83

Z NOV 30 Puts @ 4.70 on the offer 1600 contracts

MU Jan 5 Put Activity @ 0.18 on the offer

BDSI NOV 6 Calls on the offer @ 0.80 1800+

More Unusual Activity…

HEADLINES



Senate passes bill that would keep government open

IMF's Lagarde: Global growth likely weak this year

Fed's Dudley: Will make sure QE withdrawal won't roil markets

S&P sees ECB doubling QE

China Reports First Official FX Reserve Data to IMF

US DOE US Crude Inventory (WoW) Sep-25: 3955K

EIA: US Crude Oil Production Rose 94,000bpd In July

China's gold reserves rise to 54.45m fine troy oz

US Corn, Soybean Prices Drop as Domestic Stockpiles Rise

Jack Dorsey to Be Named Permanent Twitter CEO

China Premier Li: Economy Remains In Reasonable Range

Russia launches air strikes in Syria



GOVERNMENTS/CENTRAL BANKS

Senate passes bill that would keep government open --~MW

IMF's Lagarde: Global growth likely weak this year, modest acceleration in 2016 --CNBC

IMF cuts Australia growth projections for 2015 and 2016 to 2.4% and 2.9% respectively - IMF

Fed's Dudley: Will make sure QE withdrawal won't roil markets - ForexLive

Fed's Dudley: Open to adjusting bond market rules to improve liquidity - CNBC

ECB's Weidmann: EU should have clear rules for sovereign debt -- ForexLive

ECB's Hansson sees 'moderate' inflation in Eurozone - ForexLive

S&P sees ECB doubling QE - Rtrs

Brexit risk 'not priced in' Morgan Stanley warns - FT

BOJ announces October bond purchase programme - Forex Live

Japanese public pension fund likely saw July-September loss --Nikkei

Riksbank's Skingsley: Riksbank Has No Target For The Krona - BBG

FIXED INCOME

Treasury Investors See Quarterly Gains as Risk-Off Wagers Reign - BBG

Southern European bond yields fall as election risks fade - Rtrs

BoE's GBP1.41 Bln 7-15 Year Gilt Buy-Back Receives Offer/Cover Ratio Of 2.12 (Pre 2.36)

Glencore bonds still trade as junk despite bounce - FT

FX

USD: Dollar Strengthens Over Third Quarter - WSJ

USD: Dollar remains broadly higher - Investing.com

EUR: Euro lower as Eurozone falls back into deflation - Investing.com

GBP: Cable Steady at 5-Mth Low as Fed Leads Hike Race - WBP

JPY: Buck Dwells Around Break-Even - WBP

China Reports First Official FX Reserve Data to IMF - BBG

HKMA intervenes again to sell HK$ 12bln to maintain trading band --ForexLive

ENERGY/COMMODITIES

Brent oil up on Syria worry; U.S. crude down on supply build - Rtrs

Oil finishes the quarter with a 24% loss - MktWatch

Gold falls 1.5% on month, loses 4.8% on quarter - MktWatch

Copper Prices Surge on Supply Disruptions in Chile, Peru - WSJ

US DOE US Crude Inventory (WoW) Sep-25: 3955K (est. -250K, prev. -1925K)

US DOE US Distillate Inventory (WoW) Sep-25: -267K (est. -900K, prev. -2088K)

US DOE Cushing Inventory (WoW) Sep-25: -1068K (est. -350K, prev. -462K)

US DOE US Gasoline Inventory (WoW) Sep-25: 3254K (est. -750K, prev. 1369K)

EIA: US Crude Oil Production Rose 94,000bpd In July To 9.358mln bpd - FastFT

World Bank: Oil prices likely to stay volatile - FXstreet

China's gold reserves rise to 54.45m fine troy oz vs 53.93m prev - ForexLive

Steel prices sink to 11.5-year lows - FT

Australian Govt: Iron ore price has bottomed --ForexLive

US Corn, Soybean Prices Drop as Domestic Stockpiles Rise - WSJ

EQUITIES

U.S. Stocks Advance, Shaving Worst Quarterly Rout in Four Years - BBG

Torrid quarter ends with broad rebound for European stocks - FT

FTSE 100 rebounds as Sainsbury's lifts profit outlook - BBC

Carl Icahn says 'joyride' for stock market is over - MktWatch

AUTOS: Volkswagen may avoid environmental criminal charges - MktWatch

AUTOS: German prosecutors consider Audi probe - FT

M&A: Axel Springer purchases Thrillist Media Group stake - DL

M&A: Rio Tinto Agrees to Sell Coal Mine Stake for $606 Million --NYT

M&A: M&T Bank Gets Fed Nod to Buy Hudson City - WSJ

INDUSTRIALS: Airbus A320neo test aircraft suffers engine damage - MktWatch

TECH: Sources: Jack Dorsey to Be Named Permanent Twitter CEO - Re/Code

TECH: China's Tsinghua to buy Western Digital stake in U.S. tech push - Rtrs

TECH: Synaptics Said to Shun $110-a-Share Bid From China Investor - BBG

EMERGING MARKETS

China Premier Li: Economy Remains In Reasonable Range - CCTV

China Premier Li: Main Econ. Targets Can Be Achieved - CCTV

Russia launches air strikes in Syria - FT

World Bank Downgrades Russia's Economic Outlook - WSJ

RBI's Rajan says India is ready for a Fed rate hike sooner rather than later - Forex Live



Fitch: Emerging Market Vulnerability Weighing on Global Growth Outlook

[Fenix]

China Now Fifth in World Gold Holdings
Submitted by GoldCore on 09/30/2015 08:02 -0400

In his article for Bloomberg Business Ranjeetha Pakiam takes a look at China’s recent accumulations in gold and how the country now compares in the world league table on gold holdings. He observes that there is a deliberate policy of increased transparency in China “as the country improves data quality, increases its presence in commodities trading and promotes the international role of the yuan”.

* China has overtaken Russia to become the country with the fifth-largest gold hoard
* China’s accumulation of physical gold is being tipped to continue by market experts
* Monthly reporting increases Chinese transparency after years of mystery

DAILY PRICES

Today’s Gold Prices: USD 1122.50, EUR 1000.08 and GBP 739.12 per ounce.
Yesterday’s Gold Prices: USD 1124.60, EUR 1001.16 and GBP 741.36 per ounce.
(LBMA AM)


Gold in GBP - 1 month

Gold closed at $1127.50 yesterday with a $4.40 loss on the day. Silver was up $0.05 at close to $14.64, a gain of 0.34%. Euro gold fell to about €1002, platinum remained at $914.