Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

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Re: Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

Notapor Fenix » Vie Oct 02, 2015 5:47 pm

La caída actual del S&P 500 se parece a la de 2014

Análisis técnico Citi
Viernes, 2 de Octubre del 2015 - 14:58:00

La pauta actual del S&P 500 se parece a la observada el año pasado antes de que viéramos otra nueva caída culminando el movimiento bajista el 15 de octubre de 2014.

Una vez más, podemos destacar las medias semanales de 55 a 200 en el S&P 500, lo que indica que todavía hay espacio para que la renta variable se mueva más a la baja hasta 1700 (la media semana de 200 se encuentra en 1726).
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Re: Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

Notapor Fenix » Vie Oct 02, 2015 5:50 pm

7 Razones por las que el escándalo Volkswagen será peor que el de Enron

Carlos Montero
Viernes, 2 de Octubre del 2015 - 15:25:00

Tan sólo ha pasado una semana desde la revelación sorprendente del grupo Volkswagen respecto a que había equipado a millones de coches con motor diesel con un software diseñado para engañar los controles de emisiones, y pocos días desde que el presidente ejecutivo de la compañía, Martin Winterkorn, dimitió.

Y sin embargo, hay razones para creer que las consecuencias de este escándalo serán tan grandes como el caso Enron, o incluso más grandes. La mayoría de los escándalos empresariales se deben a negligencias o a malas prácticas corporativas. Hay muchos menos casos de fraude deliberado e intención criminal.

La manipulación de la contabilidad de Enron se presenta a menudo como un buen ejemplo de este último caso y por lo tanto se enseña en las escuelas de negocios de todo el mundo. Aquí hay siete razones por las que el escándalo Volkswagen es incluso peor y podría tener consecuencias mucho más graves (vía David Bach de la Yale School of Management).

En primer lugar, mientras que el fraude de Enron acabó con los ahorros de la vida de miles de personas, Volkswagen ha puesto en peligro la salud de millones de personas. Los altos niveles de óxidos de nitrógeno y de partículas finas que los coches de Volkswagen escondieron a los reguladores son peligrosos y perjudiciales para la salud, especialmente para los niños y los que sufren de enfermedades respiratorias.

En segundo lugar, encabezado por Volkswagen, los fabricantes de automóviles de Europa presionaron duramente a los gobiernos para promover la adopción de los motores diesel como una forma de reducir las emisiones de carbono. Mientras que los motores diésel contabilizan menos del 5 por ciento de los vehículos en los EE.UU., donde los reguladores descubrieron el fraude, constituyen más del 50 por ciento en Europa, gracias en gran parte a los generosos incentivos de los gobiernos.

En tercer lugar, las multas y demandas a las que se enfrenta Volkswagen es probable que supere a Enron tanto en escala como en alcance. La posible responsabilidad de Volkswagen a multas de la Agencia de Protección Ambiental alcanza los 18 mil millones de dólares. Añadir a este importe las demandas colectivas de los compradores y vendedores de coches que han visto como el valor de sus coches y franquicias disminuyó sensiblemente de la noche al día y usted tendrá una factura legal masiva.

Ningún jurado en los EE.UU. será indulgente con una empresa extranjero que promociona su tecnología de "diesel limpio" cuando la tecnología sirvió para ocultar el hecho de que las emisiones de partículas eran hasta 40 veces mayores. Y eso es antes del testimonio de expertos sobre los efectos sobre los niños con asma. Y menos del 5 por ciento de los coches en cuestión se vendieron en los EE.UU. y los reguladores en Europa, Corea del Sur y otros países ya han puesto en marcha sus propias investigaciones. Esto es un fraude verdaderamente global y un escándalo mundial.

En cuarto lugar, Enron fue aniquilada cuando la revelación de su fraude contable mostró que la compañía había estado sufriendo pérdidas masivas. Volkswagen podría arruinarse a pesar de que la empresa es financieramente saludable. El colapso de las acciones es sólo el comienzo. Un daño a su reputación que podría ser irreparable, una crisis de confianza y las responsabilidades legales masivas podrían hacer caer a la empresa.

Y mientras que Enron era un joven, aunque una compañía ciertamente admirada, Volkswagen tiene una historia de 78 años, siendo una pieza central de la industria más importante de Alemania.

En quinto lugar, debido al papel central de Volkswagen en la industria automotriz de Alemania, el escándalo es un golpe devastador para la imagen global del país. Durante años, Mercedes, BMW, Audi y Volkswagen han utilizado consignas alemanas y eslóganes que vinculaban sus productos a las proezas de ingeniería del país. Era bastante fácil para la mayoría de las empresas estadounidenses distanciarse del fraude de Enron. Será mucho más difícil para el resto de la industria alemana.

En sexto lugar, incluso si resulta que otros fabricantes de automóviles europeos y asiáticos que han invertido fuertemente en la tecnología diésel no cometieron ese fraude descarado, el escándalo probablemente restablecerá la percepción de que los motores diésel son perjudiciales después de dos décadas de esfuerzos concertados para cambiar esa opinión.

Esto no sólo pondrá en peligro cientos de miles de puestos de trabajo, sino también privará a los responsables políticos de una herramienta con la que contar para reducir las emisiones de carbono. A largo plazo, el impulso para desarrollar alternativas más limpias, incluso podría ser positivo, pero en el corto plazo es un problema enorme para Europa en particular.

En séptimo lugar, y quizás más importante, mientras que el escándalo Enron contaminó el mantra de la información financiera confiable, la voluntad de fraude de Volkswagen confrontará a la tecnología y la ingeniería como un medio para lograr una mayor sostenibilidad ambiental.

El "Diésel limpio", resulta que es una mentira como la del "carbón limpio". Por lo tanto, el comportamiento aberrante de Volkswagen amenaza con deslegitimar los innumerables y esenciales esfuerzos de empresas de todo el mundo para desarrollar soluciones ambientales escalables.

En esto radica quizá la mayor tragedia en todo este asunto: Volkswagen ha envalentonado a los cínicos en un momento en que necesitamos, más que nunca, esfuerzos empresariales para salvar al planeta.

Fuentes: David Bach decano asociado de la Escuela de Administración de Yale (FT)
Carlos Montero
Lacartadelabolsa
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Re: Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

Notapor Fenix » Vie Oct 02, 2015 5:51 pm

Políticas contra la incertidumbre

Viernes, 2 de Octubre del 2015 - 15:53:00

Global growth remains disappointing and uneven... Lagarde. ¿Qué riesgos hay encima de la mesa a nivel mundial? De acuerdo con la directora Gerente del FMI.

1. Subida de tipos en USA

2. Desaceleración económica en China

3. Rápida desaceleración en el crecimiento del comercio mundial

4. Caída de los precios de las materias primas

5. Luego….mucha incertidumbre

¿Consecuencias? La más relevante que ha mencionado ha sido la Crisis de refugiados e inmigrantes. Quizás acentuada por conflictos políticos y guerras, pero con un claro subyacente económico en muchos casos. De hecho, se estima que el número de desempleados a nivel mundial supera en estos momentos los 200 M. de personas.


¿Qué hacer? En su opinión, políticas correctas, fuerte liderazgo y cooperación mundial.

Tomar medidas para acelerar los ajustes, mejorar las perspectivas de crecimiento. Al final, ser proactivo con respecto a la política económica. ¿Algunos ejemplos? Medidas macroprudenciales en emergentes, reducir deuda privada en Europa y considerar el contexto internacional en la decisión de tipos de interés en USA. Por ejemplo.

La próxima semana el FMI publicará sus previsiones de otoño, cuando la Directora Gerente del FMI ya ha advertido que la estimación del crecimiento este año será inferior a la de 2014 y que las perspectivas para 2016 serán sólo de una ligera aceleración. ¿El futuro será mejor? Nunca hay que perder la esperanza.


José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
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Re: Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

Notapor Fenix » Vie Oct 02, 2015 6:05 pm

US Mint Sees Record Silver Sales In Q3 As Physical Demand "Is Absolutely Through The Roof"
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/01/2015 - 20:00

Having recently pointed out the surging premiums for physical gold and silver relative to the 'paper' prices spewed forth by the mainstream media, it will likely come as no surprise that, as Reuters reports, "silver [coin] demand is absolutely through the roof," according to the Perth Mint. Confirming the demand side is the U.S. Mint sold 14.26 million ounces of American Eagle silver coins in the third quarter, the highest on records going back to 1986. Dealers and mints trace the supply squeeze to a burst of buying by mom-and-pop investors in the United States, who scrambled to scoop up coins they considered to be at bargain levels after spot silver prices in early July sank to six-year lows.


"There Are Five Times More Claims On Dollars As Dollars In Existence" - Why This Matters
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/01/2015 - 19:29

According to the Fed, there is about $60 trillion of US Dollar credit or claims for US dollars. Also according to the Fed, there are about $12 trillion US dollars. So, the data show plainly there are five times as many claims for US dollars as US dollars in existence. Does this matter to investors? Well, yes, it matters a lot.


Wall Street Banks Admit They Rigged CDS Prices Too
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/01/2015 - 19:21

As Bloomberg reports, "JPMorgan Chase & Co. is set to pay almost a third of a $1.86 billion settlement to resolve accusations that a dozen big banks conspired to limit competition in the credit-default swaps market, according to people briefed on terms of the deal."
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Re: Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

Notapor Fenix » Vie Oct 02, 2015 6:12 pm

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Plunges Over 20% In Past Two Months, Loses Nearly $4 Billion In AUM
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/02/2015 - 07:09

It has been a cruel summer, with lots of leverage, for Bill Ackman and his Pershing Square hedge fund.


Chinese Cash Flow Shocker: More Than Half Of Commodity Companies Can't Pay The Interest On Their Debt
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/01/2015 - 23:01


Volkswagen: A Decade Of Deception - Full Chronology
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/02/2015 14:40 -0400

The scandal swirling around Germany's largest listed company had its beginnings in an attempt to crack the U.S. market, the missing link in VW's global footprint. But, as Handelsblatt details, what began as expansion ended in deception (piecing together the events that led up to the scandal, based on the facts as they are currently known).



As Handelsblatt reports,

Volkswagen, the world’s largest automaker, has been brought to its knees by the emissions cheating scandal. The company’s share price has been virtually halved, its reputation is in tatters, customers are furious and employees are distraught.



Handelsblatt pieces together the events that led up to the scandal, based on the facts as they are currently known.



The following chronology is based on the work of six reporters and correspondents, who analyzed corporate documents and spoke to many of the people involved.

Chapter 1: The Big Plan is Hatched in Wolfsburg

February 2005

Wolfgang Bernhard becomes head of the group’s core VW brand and, with the help of CEO Bernd Pischetsrieder, begins developing a new engine that will work with “common rail injection.” The new engine is to be used above all in the United States, where VW wants to start growing again. The group hopes that diesel engines, which are more economical and accelerate quickly, will help it gain ground against U.S. and Japanese rivals. There is one problem, however: The U.S. authorities have the strictest environmental standards.

May 2005

Mr. Bernhard entrusts the new project to Rudolf Krebs, a developer at VW’s Audi brand. It quickly becomes apparent that it will be impossible to comply with U.S. emissions standards using current technology. Their solution is “adblue,” a technology used by German carmaker Daimler. Developers at VW and Audi are strongly opposed to the use of “adblue” in the planned engine, which later will come to be known as the EA 189, the engine containing the emissions cheating device. Mr. Bernhard is undeterred and presses on with plans for the new engine to incorporate “adblue” and common rail injection.

Fall 2006

The first prototype is tested in South Africa. Martin Winterkorn, the head of Audi, and Ferdinand Piëch, the chairman of the VW group’s supervisory board and a major shareholder, are reported to have been present, but are not said to have been impressed.

November 11, 2006

It emerges that Daimler and the VW group will offer diesel cars in the United States under the joint label “Bluetec.”


Chapter 2: The Plan Takes Shape in Wolfsburg

January 7, 2007

VW subsidiary Audi launches its diesel offensive in the United States at the Detroit Motor Show. It is the first German manufacturer to do so. Wolfgang Bernhard does not attend the show, which surprises journalists. It soon emerges that he is to leave the company at the end of January, after less than two years in his post.



007 Volkswagen VW - WTB 2015Neu 2015-09-28-01



February 2007

Martin Winterkorn is appointed as chief executive of the VW group. From his first day in office, he is aware that the group’s U.S. business is floundering. He knows that only diesel engines will enable VW to gain significant market share in the United States and to fend off Japanese rival Toyota and its hybrid drive.

May 2007

Mr. Winterkorn restructures VW’s development activities, dispatching engines chief Rudolf Krebs to the group’s Salzgitter plant and replacing him with Wolfgang Hatz, while putting Ulrich Hackenberg in charge of development. Both Mr. Hatz and Mr. Hackenberg were close confidants of Mr. Winterkorn at Audi.

July 20, 2007

The new Euro 5 and 6 emissions standards come into force in the European Union. Diesel engines in particular are to become cleaner. Manufacturers must ensure that vehicles do not exceed limits in “all operating conditions.” National authorities are called upon to check manufacturers’ specifications. The need to check whether manufacturers are using defeat devices is explicitly mentioned in regulation No. 715/2007.

August 2007

The diesel engine EA 189 is used for the first time in the new Tiguan model. It contains the software that will later be used to cheat in emissions tests, although it is not yet being used. The sporty off-road vehicle can comply with emissions standards in Europe, but not the stricter limits that apply in the United States.

The diesel engine EA 189 is used for the first time in August 2007 in the new VW Tiguan. It contains the software that will later be used to cheat in emissions tests, although it is not yet being used.

August 6, 2007

Volkswagen ends its Bluetec cooperation with Daimler. It now plans to market its diesel engines under the TDI brand.

During 2007

Volkswagen uses software in its EA 189 engine that allows vehicles to be switched into test mode. This is intended to make work easier for technicians, who will not have to perform the same routines on each car. The software was developed by automotive supplier Bosch, which warns VW against using it in series models.

September 11, 2007

At the International Motor Show in Frankfurt, German environmental organization DUH claims that actual emissions values are up to 45 percent higher than those stated by manufacturers and calls for measurements to be repeated. The German authorities do not respond.



winterkorn dpa 2008 auto exhibition

Martin Winterkorn, the perfectionist, autocratic CEO of Volkswagen, resigned on September 23. Here, Mr. Winterkorn expects the model of a competitor at a 2008 auto show. Source: DPA

October 5, 2007

Stefan Jacoby takes over as head of VW’s U.S. business and announces the biggest restructuring in the group’s history. The U.S. subsidiary is reporting a loss of several hundred million dollars each year.


Chapter 3: The moment of deception

January 12, 2008

At the Detroit Motor Show, Matthias Wissmann, president of German automotive industry association VDA, says 2008 will be the year in which “clean diesel” achieves a breakthrough in the U.S. market. He predicts diesel cars will increase their market share from 3 to 15 percent by 2015, thanks to rising oil prices and stricter emissions standards.

August 2008

Volkswagen announces the launch of the VW Jetta 2.0 TDI in the United States, based on the EA 189. The company highlights the car’s low fuel consumption and low emissions, which have been made possible thanks to the cheat software.

November 20, 2008

The VW Jetta TDI wins an award for “Green Car of the Year” at the Los Angeles Auto Show. It is the first time that a diesel vehicle has won this award.


Chapter 4: The manipulation spreads

October 2008

VW fits the EA 189 diesel engine in the sixth generation of its mass-market Golf model.

May 8, 2009

VW presents its new 1.6 TDI engine, based on the EA 189, at the 30th Vienna Motor Symposium and says it will form the basis for all four-cylinder diesel engines at VW in future. The Audi A3 wins “Green Car of the Year” in the United States. It also has an EA 189 engine.

After 2012

VW installs the EA 189 in its Polo and Passat models, while Audi uses it for its A1, A3, A4 and A6 models, the TT sports car and the Q3 and Q5 all-terrain vehicles. The engine is also used in cars produced by the group’s Spanish subsidiary Seat and its Czech subsidiary Skoda.


Chapter 5: A technician blows the whistle

Winter 2011

A VW technician discovers the deception and informs Heinz-Jakob Neusser, head of engine development at the VW brand. Mr. Neusser notes the information but does not take it seriously, and nothing is made public. Mr. Neusser’s silence pays off, and from 2013 onwards he is in charge of development at the group.

The EA 189 engine proves popular with customers as it is economical, robust and durable, and is praised in particular by taxi drivers and traveling sales reps.

VW presents its new 1.6 TDI engine, based on the EA 189, in May 2009 at the 30th Vienna Motor Symposium and says it will form the basis for all four-cylinder diesel engines at VW in future.


Chapter 6: The Major U.S. Offensive

May 24, 2011

VW finally opens its own car factory in the United States. The group’s plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, employs over 2,000 staff and will eventually have the capacity to produce up to 230,000 vehicles per year. The ultimate goal is to make cars produced in the United States up to 20 percent more environmentally friendly than VW models made to date in Canada and Europe.

December 31, 2011

Volkswagen has sold 69,730 diesel vehicles in the United States this year, almost 18,000 more than in 2010. Other manufacturers such as General Motors, Daimler and BMW have sold only 2,000 to 3,000 diesel cars there. However, the diesel market is still only small in the United States, where a total of 12.8 million new cars were sold in 2011.



VW Volkswagen Shares and Net Profit-01

Chapter 7: More warnings

2012 to 2013

Environmental associations complain repeatedly that diesel cars are much dirtier than claimed, but the automotive industry does not respond and tries to play down the issue.

April 26, 2013

Martin Winterkorn says at the Vienna Motor Symposium that VW has cut the fuel consumption of its TDI and TSI engines by more than 30 percent since 2000. He is confident that it will be able to increase efficiency by a further 15 percent by 2020, making diesel at least as clean as hybrid engines from rival Japanese manufacturers.

May 13, 2013

The environmental organization DUH presents audit reports showing considerable discrepancies between test results and the figures obtained during actual use in Germany. It criticizes the “close links between members of the government and the automotive industry.” While the European Commission is discussing stricter limits, these are rejected by the government in Berlin, to avoid causing problems for German carmakers.



Michael Horn dpa
Two days after the scandal breaks, Michael Horn, the head of VW’s U.S. business, attempts to pass off the emissions investigation with a joke during a presentation of VW’s new diesel Passat in New York. A week later, VW consolidates its operative management in the United States, Canada and Mexico, says it is retaining Mr. Horn in his current position. Source: DPA


Chapter 8: The revelation

Early 2014

The environmental organization ICCT tests actual emissions figures for diesel cars and finds that the two Volkswagen models are well above the limits, exceeding the guidelines 35-fold in extreme cases.

May 2014

Two U.S. authorities are informed of this, the Environmental Protection Agency and the California Air Resources Board, a state agency. They commence official investigations into Volkswagen. VW indicates that it is willing to discuss the matter, conducts its own investigations and repeatedly compares the results on both sides.


Chapter 9: Tussling with U.S. Regulators

November 2014

The management of Volkswagen invites journalists to “Valhalla,” a high-security wing at its head office in Wolfsburg, where Mr. Winterkorn and chief financial officer Hans Dieter Pötsch spend around two hours justifying their actions. They promise that the group’s U.S. business is a top priority and present VW’s new models for the coming years. All are SUVs, most of which will have a diesel drive.

In April, supervisory board chairman Piëch announces in an interview he is distancing himself from Mr. Winterkorn, leading to an open power struggle between the former allies.

December 2, 2014

VW recalls 500,000 cars in the United States due to technical problems. Sales of diesel vehicles in the United States decline for the first time in years. VW has sold 80,441 diesel cars in 2014, compared with a record 93,338 in the previous year.

December 8, 2014

Despite the sluggishness of the Russian and Brazilian markets, VW, Audi, Seat and Skoda are set to have sold more than 10 million cars by the end of the year, a record.


Chapter 10: The Crisis Escalates

April 2015

Supervisory board chairman Mr. Piëch announces in an interview he is distancing himself from Mr. Winterkorn, leading to an open power struggle between the former allies. Mr. Winterkorn ultimately comes out on top following a crisis meeting of the supervisory board, and Mr. Piëch resigns from the board but remains a major shareholder. Mr. Piëch gives no reason for his open attack on Mr. Winterkorn, and it is unclear whether he was already aware of the problems looming at Volkswagen.

July 2015

U.S. environmental authorities threaten to stop approving Volkswagen’s diesel vehicles from 2016 unless it complies with emissions limits. VW engineers are unable to explain the massive difference between measurements obtained in tests and those recorded on the road. Finally, the group admits to rigging emission figures with the aid of software.
VW Volkswagen Diesel Has Gained Popularity in the United States

Chapter 11: The Scandal Erupts

September 18, 2015

Cynthia Giles, head of the U.S. EPA, tells the world press that VW has deceived its customers and the U.S. government. The scandal goes public. VW is humiliated but initially says nothing. The results of the emissions tests hit the German press, with the news that VW could face a maximum penalty in the United States of $18 billion causing surprise.

September 20, 2015

Volkswagen comments publicly on the accusations for the first time. A statement from Mr. Winterkorn says he deeply regrets having lost the trust of customers and the public and that the group is collaborating with the authorities to clarify the issue quickly and transparently.

September 21, 2015

All hell breaks loose on the stock markets, with Volkswagen shares sliding 20 percent, wiping several billion euros off the group’s market capitalization. Mr. Winterkorn continues to declare publicly that he is the right person to investigate the issue.

September 23, 2015

The pressure becomes too great and Mr. Winterkorn asks the supervisory board to terminate his contract. He says he is doing this in the best interests of the company, although he is not aware of any misconduct. Volkswagen files charges against persons unknown at Braunschweig public prosecutors.

September 28, 2015

Matthias Müller, the head of Porsche and Volkswagen’s new CEO, invites 1,200 managers to a conference at 6 p.m., announcing that a project team has drawn up a large-scale action plan over the weekend.

October 1, 2015

The public prosecutor in Braunschweig reverses itself and says it is not conducting formal investigation proceedings against Mr. Winterkorn and that there is merely only an initial suspicion. The prosecutor does not give a reason for the reversal and apologizes for the “false impression.”


Chapter 12: The Clean-Up Begins

VW has started the biggest recall program in its history, affecting 5.5 million vehicles in Germany alone. It estimates the cost at €300 for each affected vehicle, but the recall could prove much more expensive, depending on the technical solution required. The real risks, however, arise from legal action against the company. Volkswagen faces fines for its deception, which are likely to be particularly high in the United States. Customers and investors are also suing the company, claiming that they were informed too late of what was happening. As the lawsuits are only just beginning, the financial damage to the group cannot yet be estimated. Experts anticipate that it will run into tens of billions of euros.


Epilogue — so far

While rival automotive groups Toyota and General Motors have had to launch similar large-scale recalls of defective vehicles in recent years, Volkswagen differs from these cases in that it acted criminally with intent, which is likely to aggravate the situation. The group’s new management will now have to deal with a scandal that goes well beyond VW.

The entire German automotive industry, the driving force behind the nation’s economy, is being damaged, with suspicion being cast on diesel cars from other manufacturers as well. Every second car in Europe runs on diesel fuel. The coming months will show how well VW is able to cope with — or even survive — the crisis.
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Re: Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

Notapor Fenix » Vie Oct 02, 2015 6:15 pm

The Fed Isn't Even Trying To Make Sense Any More
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/02/2015 - 14:05

Compare this - BULLARD SAYS HE EXPECTS STRONGER JOBS REPORTS TO COME.

To this - BULLARD SAYS SUB-200K PAYROLL GAINS MAY BECOME THE NORM?

But do not fear, these guys are on top of it!!


A Hapless Brazil Incurs Massive Losses On FX Swaps Amid Currency Carnage
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/02/2015 - 13:22

"It is not a problem of liquidity, but of fundamentals"...



Crude Surges After US Oil Rig Count Collapses To May 2002 Lows
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/02/2015 - 13:09

For the 6th week in a row, Baker Hughes reports a decline in US oil rig counts. With a huge 29 rig drop - the largest in over 5 months - the total oil rig count is 809, the lowest since May 2002. The reaction is a stick-save buying panic surging crude into the green on the day.
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Re: Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

Notapor Fenix » Vie Oct 02, 2015 6:21 pm

VIX "Fat Finger" Flash Crash Runs S&P Green Stops
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/02/2015 12:44 -0400

Another day, another stock-stop-running VIX "fat-finger" flash-crash to get the S&P into confidence-inspiring green territory...


Yen-Driven Buying-Panic Lifts Stocks Green Amid "The Most Aggresssive Buying I Have Ever Seen"
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/02/2015 - 12:22

Ignore the fact that today's jobs data printed below the lowest of all economists' estimates, and just buy... because USDJPY is surging. As one market participant exclaimed "this is the most aggressive buying [in S&P minis] I have ever seen."



Silver Spikes To Six-Week Highs On Heavy Volume - Biggest Jump Since Dec 2014
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/02/2015 - 11:17

Precious metals are angrily bid this morning (even as copper and crude tumble) after the dismal US jobs data sent the USD reeling and raised expectations for moar QE down the line. Silver is up 5% on the day - the biggest daily jump since Dec 1st 2014 and gold is up 2.2% - its best day since April.
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Re: Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

Notapor Fenix » Vie Oct 02, 2015 6:24 pm

Is This Why Jobs Crashed
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/02/2015 - 11:14

Guess who: “CLAIMS” AND NONFARM PAYROLLS: It’s A Very “Tidy” Correlation Indeed: This wonderful chart, courtesy of TD Securities, shows how almost perfectly jobless claims and non?farm payrolls correlate, and so with “claims” falling as they have, payrolls today could be surprisingly high."



"They Just Don't Want A Job" - The Fed's Grotesque "Explanation" Why 94.6 Million Are Out Of The Labor Force
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/02/2015 - 15:27

"The decrease in labor force participation among prime-age individuals has been driven mostly by the share who say they currently don't want a job."



Meet Seth Carpenter - Janet Yellen's Choice Of "Fed Leak" Scapegoat
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/02/2015 - 18:20

With the "above the law" Federal Reserve coming under increasing pressure to answer a Senate investigation's questions about the 2012 "leak", it appears the proximity of the probe to Janet Yellen, has forced The Fed to 'fess up and throw someone under the bus. Meet Seth Carpenter, a nominee for assistant Treasury secretary for financial markets...
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Re: Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

Notapor Fenix » Vie Oct 02, 2015 6:29 pm

The Reality Behind The Numbers In China's Boom-Bust Economy
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/02/2015 - 17:45

The US Federal Reserve orchestrated an artificial boom from 2001 to 2007 through artificially low interest rates and has resumed doing so once again. Entrepreneurs operating under faulty market signals created by the Federal Reserve malinvested hundreds of billions of dollars into capital intensive projects primarily in the housing sector. We paid for our boom with millions of destroyed jobs, wasted labor, and wasted resources. The Chinese Central Bank learned nothing from the Fed’s catastrophic experiment. They will reap the same rewards.



Chinese Cash Flow Shocker: More Than Half Of Commodity Companies Can't Pay The Interest On Their Debt
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/02/2015 - 17:15



The Slippery Slope Of Denial
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/02/2015 - 15:50

1. Dollar doesn’t matter, indicates strong economy relative to the world
2. Dollar matters for oil, but lower oil prices mean stronger consumer
3. Manufacturing slump doesn’t matter, only temporary
4. Manufacturing declines are consumer spending, but only a small part
5. Manufacturing declines are becoming serious, but only from overseas
6. US consumer demand is strong, except everywhere you look to actually find it.
7. ...
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Re: Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

Notapor Fenix » Vie Oct 02, 2015 6:30 pm

Weekend Reading: Capacious Cognitions
10/02/2015 16:50 -0400
Submitted by Lance Roberts

This past week saw the markets retest its lows. So far, those lows have held for now but the deterioration in market internals suggests that the danger is not over as of yet. As I stated earlier this week:

"As you will notice, the reflexive rally, and subsequent failure, have tracked the original predictions very closely up to the point.


With the market once again very oversold on a short-term basis, it is likely that the markets could manage a weak rally attempt over the next few days. The good news is that such an attempt will provide individuals another opportunity to reduce portfolio risk accordingly."

SP500-MarketUpdate-100115

"While the mainstream analysis remains quite bullish on the underpinnings of the market, the ongoing deterioration of market internals and fundamentals suggests something more pervasive. The chart below shows the previous post-financial crisis corrections following the end of Central Bank interventions."

SP500-MarketUpdate-092915-3

"As you will note, each correction was contained within a Fibonacci correction band of either 38.2% or 61.8%. It was at these correction points that the Federal Reserve responded with some form of monetary intervention or support."

With the Federal Reserve still hinting at raising interest rates, but trapped by weak economic growth, will the next big move by the Fed be another form of monetary accommodation instead? Or, are the underlying dynamics of the economy and market really strong enough to shake off the recent weakness and continue its bullish ascent?

This weekend's reading list covers a variety of views on the markets and other related issues to stimulate your thinking processes. What is critically important is to have a logical and disciplined game plan for dealing with your investments. "Hoping to get back to even" has never been a successful investment strategy.
THE LIST

1) Is 1700 For The SPX Still On Target by Avi Gilbert via MarketWatch

“I also want to address the 2011 correction, to which I see many referring as the "copy" of what we are forming right now. First, the 2011 correction wave was a 2nd wave, and this is a 4th wave. The theory of alternation suggests that they should take different forms, so I am not going to expect that we will be working from the same playbook as 2011.

Second, it seems as though many market participants have been referring to this market fractal as to what will happen in our current market scenario. Well, when a large segment of the market maintains the same perspective, it is quite rare to see that perspective play out. So, for that reason, I think that the market is either going to break down sooner than I expect, which is not called for in the 2011 fractal, or, more in line with my primary perspective, we go back over the high made on the day of the Fed announcement before we drop to lower lows, which is also not in line with the 2011 fractal.”

Read Also: Ending The Markets' Short-Term Obsession by Mohammed El-Erian via Bloomberg View


2) Investors Haven't Been This Bearish In 15 Years by Mark Hulbert via MarketWatch

“Bearishness has reached an extreme not seen at least since the top of the Internet bubble in early 2000.


Yet this is a bullish omen, according to the inverse logic of contrarian analysis: Extreme levels of bearishness indicate that there is a very robust "wall of worry" for the market to climb.”

MW-Bearishness-Sentiment-100115

Read Also: 5 Things To Do BEFORE Your Portfolio Crumbles by Peter Hodson via Financial Post

But Also Read: What Could Stop This Bear Market by Anthony Mirhaydari via The Fiscal Times


3) This Is When Bonds Go Boom! by Wolf Richter via Naked Capitalism

“This chart from LCD HY Weekly shows the distress ratio of leveraged loans as measured by S&P Capital IQ LCD (blue line) and of junk bonds as measured by BofA Merrill Lynch (red line) which depicts reality in an even harsher light than Standard and Poor's. Leveraged loans are generally secured and hold up better in a bankruptcy than bonds. But distress levels of both have recently begun to spike.

These yields that are rising to distressed levels drive up the spread between corporate bond yields and US Treasury yields. The spread is a measure of perceived risk. It had dropped to ludicrously low levels. This wasn't a function of risk somehow disappearing from Planet Earth. It was a function of the Fed's beating investors into submission with its zero-interest-rate policy so that they would eliminate risk as a factor being priced into their calculus. Now risk is re-inserting itself into the calculus.”

US-distress-ratio-bonds-leveraged-loans-2015-09-25

Read Also: Are Credit Markets Signaling More Pain? by Fil Zucchi via See It Market


4) Carl Ichan: Market Is Way Overpriced by Carl Icahn via Zero Hedge

"God knows where this is going. It's very dangerous and could be disastrous," said Icahn, who has been a consistent critic of the Fed for keeping its benchmark interest rate close to zero since late 2008.


Icahn said he felt compelled to raise red flags about the state of the financial markets because he believes if more big investors had warned about subprime mortgage market in 2007, the United States might have avoided the crisis that strangled the economy the following year.


In a video entitled "Danger Ahead" and released on Tuesday, Icahn said the Fed's rate policy had enabled U.S. chief executives - many of whom he describes as "nice but mediocre guys" – to pursue "financial engineering" that he said has exacerbated an already wide gap between rich and poor in America."

Read Also: Today's Market Looks A Lot Like 2000 and 2007 by Alex Rosenberg via CNBC


5) New Sign Of A Market Bubble? by Michael Hiltzik via LA Times

"At a press briefing last week, Mike Wilson, an executive of Morgan Stanley's wealth management arm, cautioned that 'Consumers are feeling pretty good, and they are starting to spend money again, and they're starting to do dumb things. They're starting to borrow money, they're starting to maybe buy that house they shouldn't or that car they shouldn't.'


That's amusing, because Morgan Stanley has been aggressively hawking non-purpose loans: its total securities-based loans totaled $38 billion at the end of 2014, a 70% increase over two years earlier according to an analysis by Paul Meyer of the Securities Litigation and Consulting Group.


The firm's pitch to clients is entitled 'Invest in Your Dreams.' Among those dreams it puts in its clients' heads: 'The restaurant you've always wanted to open. That advanced degree you finally have time for. The perfect house that won't be on the market long. A 1963 Ferrari GTO, just because.'"

(Note: Morgan Stanley is pitching "margin loans" at a time when margin debt is still near record highs. We saw similar behavior at the peak of the last two bull markets.)
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Re: Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

Notapor Fenix » Vie Oct 02, 2015 6:33 pm

Silver coin demand is absolutely through the roof” – Perth Mint
Submitted by GoldCore on 10/02/2015 08:25 -0400

If the continuing depression in precious metal prices has a silver lining, it is the enormous surge in demand world-wide for silver. With most mints & brokers experiencing higher than expected demand for silver coins, many are having to set weekly sales quotas after record coin sales.

According to Nicholson, Ananthalakshmi and Harvey, reporting for Reuters yesterday, this rapid surge in demand for silver is due to unprecedented interest in coins from ‘mom & pop’ buyers in the US. “Dealers and mints trace the supply squeeze to a burst of buying by mom-and-pop investors in the United States, who scrambled to scoop up coins they considered to be at bargain levels after spot silver prices in early July sank to six-year lows.”

In addition, there is a perceived shortage in the market of silver coin supply which, according to a Perth Mint spokesperson, “is in fact a (crunch in) manufacturing capacity.”

With North American mints overwhelmed by orders, investors and collectors were forced to look overseas for increasingly scarce supplies, triggering a domino effect in Europe and Asia.

Read more on the Goldcore.com blog

See also our recent blog on “Premiums Rise and Delivery Delays Increase on Silver Bullion Coins” for further analysis.



DAILY PRICES

Today’s Gold Prices: USD 1106.30, EUR 990.86 and GBP 730.21 per ounce.
Yesterday’s Gold Prices: USD 1145.50, EUR 1027.63 and GBP 752.18 per ounce.
(LBMA AM)

Gold closed at $1114.30 down again by $1.70 on the day. Silver slipped to as low as $14.476 but ultimately gained $0.02 overall, closing at $14.56.

As reported previously, the Perth Mint sold a record amount of silver coins in September – more than 3.53 million ounces – according to Reuters. This is about five times higher than the mint’s August sales.



IMPORTANT NEWS

Gold struggles near two-week low after strong U.S. data – Reuters
Platinum’s Premium to Palladium at 13-Year Low on Diesel Concern – Bloomberg
Palladium hits near 3-month high on strong auto sales; gold flat – Reuters
Gold futures settle with a loss after a volatile day – MarketWatch
Commodities Bust: Metals Are Getting Massacred – Bloomberg

IMPORTANT ANALYSIS

“Silver coin demand is absolutely through the roof “- Perth Mint – Reuters
Does 1 October mark the beginning of the end for the debt bubble? – MoneyWeek
Fears of a Chinese ‘hard landing’ trigger mass exodus from emerging markets – The Telegraph
Panic Is Spreading, Part 1: Surge in Junk Bond Defaults Imminent – DollarCollapse.com
Charging into Yukon’s new gold rush – The Vancouver Sun
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Re: Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

Notapor Fenix » Vie Oct 02, 2015 6:38 pm

NUGT 1056.05% desde este miércoles 30 setiembre 2015 !!!!

estaba en 2.89 y ahora en 33.41 ¿?
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Re: Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

Notapor admin » Vie Oct 02, 2015 10:19 pm

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Re: Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

Notapor admin » Vie Oct 02, 2015 10:21 pm

Minera Volcan recomprará las acciones que emitió en la BVL

Viernes, 02 de octubre del 2015. 18:28 Decisión se debió a las actuales circunstancias del mercado de valores, señaló la empresa minera en un comunicado a la SMV
(Foto: Archivo El Comercio)
(Foto: Archivo El Comercio)

La minera Volcan anunció que recomprará sus acciones emitidas en la Bolsa de Valores de Lima (BVL), según informó a la Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores (SMV).

Mediante un documento publicado como "Hecho de importancia" en la plataforma de la SMV, la empresa minera Volcan indicó que esta decisión, tomada por su directorio, se debió a las actuales circunstancias del mercado de valores.

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"Dicha adquisición se podría realizar en la oportunidad que se considere conveniente a los intereses de la compañía", señaló Volcan al SMV.

Las acciones de la compañía cayeron un 4,74% al cierre de las operaciones del mercado bursátil peruano.
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Re: Viernes 02/10/15 La situacion del empleo

Notapor admin » Vie Oct 02, 2015 10:23 pm

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