Miercoles 10/07/15 BOJ mantiene politica monetaria

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159Publicamos a continuación el indicador de posiciones largas netas en EE.UU. de los gestores profesionales, elaborado por la National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM).

Vemos como esa exposición larga cae por debajo del 20%, lo cual ha sucedido solo cuatro veces en los últimos 5 años. En todas las 3 ocasiones anteriores esta señal marcó un suelo intermedio. Podríamos estar cerca de otro.

9:43 El dólar seguirá ganando posiciones
Según una encuesta realizada por Reuters el dólar seguirá ganando posiciones en los próximos meses respecto a sus principales pares. Las previsiones son:

Euro/dólar: A 1 mes: 1,12 - 12 meses 1,05.
Dólar/yen: A 1 mes: 121 - 12 meses 126.
Libra/dólar: A 1 mes: 1,53 - 12 meses 1,53

10:18 El FMI ve riesgo en algunos mercados emergentes
El Fondo Monetario Internacional señalan que varios mercados emergentes están en riesgo de rebaja de ratings, y añade que los riesgos de están desplazando al mercado de divisas según se acerca la decisión de la Reserva Federal de subir tipos.

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11:43 Oro intradía: mayor avance
Trading Central
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 1135,5
Nuestra preferencia: Posiciones largas encima de 1135,5 con objetivos en 1157 y 1165 en extensión.
Escenario alternativo: Debajo de 1135,5 buscar mayor indicación de baja (o de caída) con 1130 y 1122,5 como objetivos.
Comentario técnico: El RSI muestra tendencias que van de mixtas a alcistas.

13:20 "Aún veo sentido en subir los tipos en 2015"
John Williams de la Fed
John Williams, presidente de la Reserva Federal de San Francisco, ha declarado que "aún veo sentido en subir los tipos en 2015", y añade:

- De cualquier forma escucharé el debate del FOMC.
- Los gastos del consumidor han sido más fuertes de lo esperado. Los de comercio más débiles.
- Cuando la Fed suba tipos, no debería ser una sorpresa para nadie.
- La Fed no debe añadir volatilidad innecesariamente, ni reducirla.


Según los futuros de los fondos de la Fed, la probabilidad de subida de tipos en la reunión del FOMC de octubre es menor al 10% y de subida en diciembre ligeramente superior al 30%

[Fenix]

La caja de Apple es una mínima parte de lo que la gente cree

Mi�rcoles, 7 de Octubre del 2015 - 13:45:00

El analista de MarketWatch Brett Arends afirma que la caja real de Apple es un 99% más pequeña de lo que se cree. Veamos como argumenta esta afirmación tan contundente:

Apple ha declarado que posee 203.000 millones de dólares en caja, lo que es igual a 36 dólares por acción. Es un record histórico en las compañías americanas. Ahora bien, ese caja es solo una ilusión. En realidad, la caja disponible de Apple es solo una fracción de esa cantidad.

Como la propia compañía señala, Apple posee 181.100 millones de dólares depositados en paraísos fiscales para evitar pagar impuestos en EE.UU., según ha afirmado un think tank del país basándose en datos de la propia compañía.

Apple tendría que pagar 59.200 millones de dólares en impuestos si intenta repatriar ese dinero, por lo que los inversores no podrán beneficiarse de él sin perder un tercio del valor. La compañía afirma que no tiene intención de repatriar el dinaro por lo que no tendrá que pagar impuestos, pero tampoco será disponible para los inversores.


El balance de Apple también revela que tiene 147.500 millones de dólares en deudas, más otros 31.500 millones de dólares en pasivos fuera de balance tales como arrendamientos y compromisos de compra.

Cuando sumamos todo nos quedaría: Apple tiene 239.000 millones de dólares en activos líquidos incluyendo 203.000 millones en efectivo, inventarios...y debe 179.000 millones de dólares por su pasivo. A esto tendría que restarse los 59.200 millones de dólares que debería pagar al fisco si quisiera devolver ese dinero a los accionistas, por tanto, lo que le quedaría serían 800 millones de dólares.

Estos no son 36 dólares por acción, sino 14 centavos

[Fenix]

El chart de Volkswagen empieza a parecerse al de BP tras vertido

Mi�rcoles, 7 de Octubre del 2015 - 14:32:00

El patrón gráfico que se formó en las acciones de BP después de su vertido de petróleo de 2010 está pareciéndose cada vez al que ahora está desarrollando Volkswagen - y eso es una mala noticia para los "toros".

Es conocido en la jerga del análisis técnico como un hueco de ruptura, un movimiento del precio que ocurre tan rápido que fractura el progreso ordenado de la negociación e interrumpe un rango existente.

En Volkswagen sucedió en la apertura, el 21 de septiembre, cuando el fabricante de automóviles se desplomó desde 162,40 euros a 139,95 euros sin tocar cualquiera de los puntos de precio intermedio (ver primer gráfico).


Pueden pasar años antes de que las acciones se recuperen, si es que lo hacen, según analistas técnico BP todavía no ha vuelto a los precios antes del vertido de petróleo.

14:57 Índice TRJ CRB. Más potencial alcista de corto plazo
Análisis técnico SEB
La clara ruptura ayer del índice Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB (TRJ CRB index) muestra que hay potencial alcista en el corto plazo para las commodities.

El movimiento también debería beneficiar a los mercados emergentes productores de recursos básicos como Brasil y Rusia.

Resistencias 202,13 203,67 206,59 208,25
Soportes 199,08 197,23 196,05 194,11

[Fenix]

14:57 Índice TRJ CRB. Más potencial alcista de corto plazo
Análisis técnico SEB
La clara ruptura ayer del índice Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB (TRJ CRB index) muestra que hay potencial alcista en el corto plazo para las commodities.

El movimiento también debería beneficiar a los mercados emergentes productores de recursos básicos como Brasil y Rusia.

Resistencias 202,13 203,67 206,59 208,25
Soportes 199,08 197,23 196,05 194,11

[Fenix]

Silver Coin Premiums Soar Above 50%
Submitted by Tyler D.
0/06/2015 16:38 -0400

Courtesy of Sharelynx' Nick Laird who tracks precious metal premium by vendor, we continue our recent series showing the discrepancy between paper and physical metals, in this case silver. As Nick notes, APMEX price premiums are a lot higher than the Monex. And as can be seen in the charts below, premiums rose above 50% for 1-19 coins & above 40% for 500 plus coins.

For now, gold is stable.


This Month Could Make Or Break The Oil Markets
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/07/2015 - 10:15

Saudi Arabia’s competitors from the Gulf cut their prices last month, forcing the largest OPEC producer to follow suit. Although there was little expectation of a shift in strategy, the price cut highlights Saudi Arabia’s determination to continue to pursue market share by keeping production volumes elevated. On top of that, October could be a crucial month for struggling drillers. With drillers undergoing credit redeterminations, October could see a wave of debt restructuring and cuts to credit lines, potentially forcing deeper cuts in the shale patch.

At Least "Black Box" Glencore Is Less Complex Than Enron
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/07/2015 - 09:55

As the following org chart of Glencore shows, the company - at least on the surface - appears to be far "simpler" than Enron was in the days preceding its biggest, for the time, and quite unexpected, bankruptcy.

[Fenix]

Battered Biotechs Trigger First "Death Cross" In 4 Years
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/07/2015 - 09:50

For the first time since Spetember 2011, the Nasdaq Biotech Index has triggered a "death cross" as its 50-day moving average crosses below its 200-day average...


Q3 Earnings Bloodbath Continues With Terrible Monsanto Results: Company Fires 2,600 As It Boosts Buyback
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/07/2015 - 08:29
It had been quite a downcast start to the third quarter earnings season following very disappointing earnings from Illumina, Adobe and Yum Brand. Then Moments ago agri-giant Monsanto made it four out of four when it reported absolutely terrible results, cut guidance, but at least announced a new $3 billion stock buyback, one that will soak up all the company's net cash flow. The cost of all of this: some 2,600 worker terminations.



"You Never Go Full-Krugman": Insane Helicopter Money Calls Continue As Trapped Central Banks Face Keynesian Endgame
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/07/2015 - 15:31

"The helicopter. Rather than buying assets, central banks drop money on the street. Or even better, in a more modern and civilised fashion, credit our bank accounts!" Yes, "even better!"...



Mortgage Applications Soar 25% (Ahead Of Regulatory Regime Change)
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/07/2015 - 12:01

Mortgage applications rose 25.5% week-over-week - the 2nd largest surge since 2009 - to the highest level (for this time of year) since 2012. Both refis and purchases soared, and exuberance immediatoley extrapolated this surge as 'proving' the housing recovery is healthy. However, as MBA admits, "many applications were filed prior to the TILA-RESPA regulatory change," strongly suggesting this is anything but sustainable.

[Fenix]

"They're Converging To Dire Levels!": SocGen's Edwards Delivers Critical Warning On Inflation Expectations
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/07/2015 - 18:00

"The collapse in inflation expectations tells us that the market believes the central banks, despite their monetary profligacy, are failing to prevent the western economies from turning Japanese, and thus at risk of repeating their devastating slide into outright deflation in the 1990s."


Lawmaker Calls For Study On Links Between Pharmaceuticals And Mass Killers
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/07/2015 - 17:30

“We have to look into what is being prescribed and what is in these meds just like clinical studies. Why don’t we do studies on the medication all of these shooters were taking and take that medication off the market? Obviously, medications can alter your mind just as alcohol can alter the mind..."


As A Shocking $100 Billion In Glencore Debt Emerges, The Next Lehman Has Arrived
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/07/2015 - 17:27

And now the real shocker: there is over US$100bn in gross financial exposure to Glencore. From BofA: "We estimate the financial system's exposure to Glencore at over US$100bn, and believe a significant majority is unsecured. The group's strong reputation meant that the buildup of these exposures went largely without comment. However, the recent widening in GLEN debt spreads indicates the exposure is now coming into investor focus."



The Source Of The US Economy's Only Bright Spot: $1 Trillion In Car Loans
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/07/2015 - 15:49

As the following chart shows, after langushing between $70 and $800 billion in the second half of the last decade, since Q2 2010 US auto loans have been on an absolute tear, and have increased by over 40% in the past five years alone, to just shy of $1 trillion as of June 30!




There Will Be Blood – Part III
10/07/2015 10:36 -0400

By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at

Earlier last week we introduced you to the first part of a missive on shale oil by my friend Harris Kupperman. We followed that up with Part II where Harris dug deeper into some of the numbers in this sector - numbers which should be enough to bring terror into the hearts of even the most fear defying luminaries such as Rambo, Darth Vader and the Williams sisters.

Today I bring you Part III, penned in January of this year, where Harris discusses the leverage and subsequent securitization of shale oil and how interestingly similar it is to the housing bubble. Something which should be vivid in investors' minds but due to human nature has already been forgotten.

It's a truism that the further removed one is from the source of any investment the higher the risk of loss. Securitization is this wonderful means of sanitizing and making opaque investments. The convoluted spaghetti that all too often lands up being created serves to prolong and exacerbate an already silly market. Such are the markets...

Enjoy!

------------------------------

Date: 10 December 2014

Subject: There Will Be Blood - Part III

At some point during the great housing bubble of the last decade, financial alchemists met over beers to solve an intractable problem. Decades earlier, they had perfected the art of taking mortgages, pooling them into mortgage backed securities and selling them to pension funds, insurance companies and other mindless institutional investors. These funds would always buy the senior tranches that were almost bulletproof, but what do to with the lower tranches? These were the tranches that would be worthless if there was even a small default rate. Who would agree to take these on for only a few dozen basis points of extra yield? In the past, the guys securitizing these mortgages would often hold onto the unwanted equity tranches as they rarely defaulted and even if they did default, the fees earned on the securitization would more than offset the losses—but this still tied up capital. Was there a way to make this product slightly more appetizing—maybe even outright sexy for those same institutional buyers?

Subprime Wine

The offspring of these late-night beer sessions was the CDO-squared. Effectively, the garbage that the banks didn't want was packaged into new CDO vehicles that looked just like regular CDOs. The Pavlovian response of the pension funds was to buy the supposedly lower risk senior tranches - especially as these were now highly rated by complicit rating firms. What about the equity tranches of this new offspring? Who cared? The banks were able to offload the majority of the equity tranches of the original CDO - if they were stuck with the worst of the worst, they could deal. The money was already made.

When it all blew up, lessons were learned. Mainly that if you repackage crap, it's still crap. The equity tranches of these CDOs squared turned out to be worthless, as were the senior tranches. Senior debt or equity - crap is still crap.

What is the senior debt on a shale play that needs $100 oil to be profitable worth? With oil at $51, it's worth roughly zero. What is the equity worth? Even less. What is the junk debt worth? Somewhere in the middle. The first epiphany in the shale patch will soon be that it doesn't matter where you are in the capital structure of an uneconomic shale play. If that play needs $100 oil to work, you're screwed. There is minimal salvage value there. At least the original subprime loan was worth what you could sell the underlying home for, minus the frictional costs along the way. The loss severity on these shale plays will be much higher. It is CDOs squared all over again.

Over the past few weeks, I've heard people articulate that there is something approaching $200 billion of junk debt tied to the shale space. For some reason, people seem to speculate that we may see a default rate in the teens. That sounds like $20 or $30 billion of total losses—as in, large but meaningless. Unfortunately, it's probably better to use the CDO squared theory of finance.

If you recall in the prior two pieces, for the past decade, the game in shale has been to lock up land, borrow money and get oil and gas out of the ground. Since the decline curves are so steep, after only a few years, you basically have fully depleted land and likely less money back than was originally spent—hence you have to borrow even more money to drill more land and hope that no one notices that the returns are negative. Without new money going into the ground, the whole hamster wheel stops. You are left with depleted land and untapped land that suddenly is cut off from future debt funding. At that point, we learn the real cost of producing this oil and see who can self-fund, and who cannot.

What if almost ALL of the debt tied to the shale sector turns out to be largely worthless? Now we're talking big money, as in hundreds of billions.

Credit Plant

Shale spreads out into other sectors of the economy though. During the great housing bubble, all sorts of sectors blossomed as debt was created and money went chasing this boom. Just think of all the mortgage brokers, real estate agents, construction workers and whatnot that grew rich off of the housing bubble. I live in South Beach; this boom was what transitioned our economy from cocaine and money laundering into something slightly more respectable. Now look at the chart below. Effectively all of the gains in US employment since 2009, were in states that are related to the shale boom. South Beach was hit very hard from 2009 to 2011. What will this shale bust do to jobs in those states?

Shale Jobs

Then, there are the service providers. Exploration budgets are getting slashed as we speak. What is the value of a new highly specialized deep sea drilling rig designed for harsh arctic conditions? What about a fifteen-year old gulf rig? Look at some offshore drilling companies, they're all highly leveraged and that was back when they could still command stratospheric day-rates. There are roughly 800 active offshore rigs in the world, already about 200 are idle, yet 200 more are expected to be delivered in the next 6 years. It is the oil tanker glut of 2010 onwards. Most of these tanker companies are shadows of themselves, if they even survived. Many of these drillers will blow up as well.

Traditional oil companies are in better shape as long if they aren't leveraged, but many of them are. According to the International Energy Agency, total debt at oil producing companies around the world is roughly $1.6 trillion and has been increasing at $100 billion a year since around 2008. Suddenly, we're talking trillions of dollars that are potentially at risk.

Let me give you some sense of scale on this risk. Before subprime blew up, there was roughly $1.3 trillion of subprime housing debt outstanding. Total write-downs by US banks after the GFC were just under $1 trillion. The debt at risk here is of the same order of magnitude as the great housing bubble, even before we consider all of the sovereign budgets that need higher oil in order to maintain fiscal stability.

Oil Barrel Fallen

In part IV, I'll talk about what sustained lower prices will mean to many sovereign budgets along with why the reversal of the petrodollar recycling trade could be disastrous for everyone. There will be winners and losers from the oil price decline. I think that this will be the dominant theme for 2015 and it is the reason that I am so focused on it. There have been some large moves in some of the most leveraged players in the shale space, but the big fireworks have hardly even begun. We are in the "subprime is contained" circa fall of 2007, phase of the market. It is time to get positioned.

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The above was written on 5th of January this year. Well before we experienced the following: Glencore bond insurance surging like the semen of a well hung, horny bull cow:

Glencore CDS

...and Trafigura 2020 bonds nosediving:

Trafigura Bond

We will be publishing the next letter on Friday. You can make sure not to miss it HERE.

- Chris



"Your selling something that you know has no value." - Sam Rogers (from the movie Margin Call)

[Fenix]

The First Crack: Deutsche Bank Preannounces Massive Loss, May Cut Dividend
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/07/2015 - 16:20

Deutsche Bank warned it expects to record a third-quarter loss of $7 billion, tied to a huge write-down in its corporate-banking-and-securities segment. The bank said the charges are driven by the impact of expected higher regulatory capital requirements and its disposal of Postbank. It also said it will consider reducing or eliminating its common dividend for fiscal 2015.

DEUTSCHE BANK SEES 3Q NET LOSS EUR 6.2 BLN
DEUTSCHE BANK TO RECOMMEND DIVIDEND CUT OR POSSIBLE ELIMINATION


"I Would Say Don't Worry" Says Chinese Central Banker As Indian Central Banker Says "World Economy Is Looking Grim"
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/07/2015 - 20:17

"I would say, don't worry" said Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, after the International Monetary Fund warned of risks in China's economic challenges.

"The world economy is looking grim" - said Raghuram Rajan, Indian central bank governor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.


Presenting SocGen's "China Syndrome": "The Vicious Cycle Of Lower Demand, Prices And Commodity Currencies"
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/07/2015 - 18:59

"There's a circularity and self-fulfilling relationship between commodity currencies, lower commodity demand and lower commodity prices in an environment of oversupply."

[admin]

Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1257 0.0019
Yen (USD/JPY) 119.90 -0.11
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.5275 -0.0043
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7185 -0.0023
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9715 -0.0021
WSJ Dollar Index 87.84 -0.05
GOVERNMENT BONDS8:16 AM EDT 10/08/2015
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year 4/32 2.050
German 10 Year 7/32 0.572
Japan 10 Year 1/32 0.327
FUTURES8:06 AM EDT 10/8/2015
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 48.19 0.38 0.79%
Brent Crude 52.12 0.35 0.68%
Gold 1143.7