Así es cómo el mercado de bonos podría provocar un desplome en las acciones
Lunes, 19 de Octubre del 2015 - 14:32:00
Vende lo que puedas, no lo que quieras, dice el viejo adagio de los mercados. Varios gurús del mercado parecen haberse tomado ese dicho muy en serio señalando que las acciones podrían caer con fuerza en el caso de un shock en los bonos basura que han sido emitidos por empresas con débiles balances.
La idea es que los fondos de inversión híbridos que tienen grandes carteras de deuda y renta variable podrían sufrir un duro golpe en caso de que una crisis de liquidez, ampliamente esperada, desate una tormenta en el mercado de bonos corporativos.
En ese escenario, esos fondos necesitarían encontrar activos más líquidos en sus carteras que pudieran vender con el fin de cumplir con las solicitudes de reembolso, tales como acciones y bonos del Tesoro estadounidense, a diferencia de los bonos corporativos, que son más difíciles de negociar.
"En febrero destacamos el riesgo de que los fondos de inversión fueran propensos a ser uno de los medios por el que una venta masiva en los bonos de alto rendimiento podría propagarse a otras clases de activos", dicen los analistas de USB. "A diferencia de los otros dos enlaces entre el crédito y las acciones, que son 1) un coste más alto del capital de los bonos basura de las empresas de pequeña capitalización fuertemente apalancadas y 2) una reducción general en el apetito de riesgo, resulta que la conexión de los fondos de inversión afecta directamente a las acciones de mayor capitalización con una alta calificación.
Los analistas Ramin Nakisa, Stephen Caprio y Matthew Mish señalan que los fondos híbridos mutuos y los fondos negociados en bolsa (ETFs), "cuyos inversores no tienen lealtad a la clase de activos" ahora tienen una parte considerable de sus activos tanto en bonos como en acciones. De hecho, el detalle de la cartera de activos en estos mercenarios fondos de inversión se ve algo como el gráfico adjunto.
Los activos totales en manos de los fondos de inversión híbridos totalizan 1,4 billones de dólares, pero si el crédito sufre una crisis de liquidez es de espera que la incapacidad de vender 243.000 millones de dólares en crédito provocaría ventas en los 843.000 millones de dólares en acciones.
Por ejemplo, Microsoft tiene la asignación más grande de dólares en fondos híbridos con 7.400 millones de dólares en una cartera mixta, seguido de JPMorgan Chase con 6.300 millones y Verizon 5.800 millones.
Mientras que un escenario de ventas indiscriminadas en el mercado de bonos que obligara a los fondos de inversión a vender acciones y bonos del Tesoro estadounidense es una posibilidad muy remota, todavía es una posibilidad que merece la atención de los inversores.
Creemos que tendría que suceder un shock sistémico para que se desencadene un problema de liquidez en el crédito, como una caída importante en el petróleo, otro fuerte repunte del dólar u otra sorpresa en el crecimiento negativo de los mercados emergentes, por lo tanto, este escenario es un riesgo que no se puede ignorar.
Fuentes: UBS, Tracy Alloway (BBG)
Carlos Montero
Lacartadelabolsa
WTI crudo. Vigilando la resistencia de 50,92 dólares
Análisis técnico Citi
Lunes, 19 de Octubre del 2015 - 14:57
El crudo WTI se mantuvo en el soporte del retroceso del 76,4% del último rally, desde $43.71 y registró un patrón doji reflejando indecisión.
El nivel de ruptura de la pauta actual de consolidación se encuentra en 50,92 dólares, con la media de 200 días muy cerca en 50,75 dólares. Un cierre por encima equivaldría a una ruptura alcista que abriría el camino a una subida a 56,50 dólares.
Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
Re: Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
por Fenix » Lun Oct 19, 2015 6:08 pm
- Fenix
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- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
por Fenix » Lun Oct 19, 2015 6:09 pm
¿Por qué es tan débil el comercio mundial?
Lunes, 19 de Octubre del 2015 - 15:52:00
Sin duda es una de las cuestiones, sin respuesta clara por el momento, que generan más inquietud. Los diferentes tratados comerciales firmados o que en este momento se negocian no son la solución a un problema que parece responder a cuestiones tan distintas como el final del ciclo alcista en las materias primas, la inestabilidad en los mercados de capitales internacionales, el deterioro de las perspectivas económicas y hasta la inestabilidad de tipo de cambio….el proteccionismo, ¿por qué no?
El FMI dedica una parte importante de su último Informe mensual a analizar la evolución del comercio mundial. Indaga sobre el peso de las cadenas de producción internacionales (una tercera parte del comercio son bienes intermedios), la importancia real del tipo de cambio y al final cómo repercute todo ello en las economías exportadores de commodities. Y también en las desarrolladas. Japón es un caso extremo.
El JPY se ha depreciado un 35 % en tipo de cambio real efectivo en los últimos tres años, más que compensando su subida entre 2008/2011. ¿Por qué esta teórica mejora en la competitividad no se ha reflejado en una mejora de las ventas?.
Vean el gráfico adjunto.
Al final, las exportaciones ahora son un 20 % por debajo de los niveles previstos. Y me refiero a los modelos teóricos válidos antes de la nueva política Abenomic.
¿Por qué? Las opciones que propone el FMI son tres:
1. Menor sensibilidad del precio de las exportaciones al tipo de cambio
2. Elevado peso de la producción externa sobre las ventas totales
3. Elevado peso de los canales internacionales en las ventas
Sí, no niego que son factores con elevada interconexión. Pero también plantean algunas ideas interesantes que podrían llegar a extrapolarse a otros países.
Con respecto al primer punto anterior, lo cierto es que muchas compañías japonesas dada la inestabilidad del tipo de cambio optaron hace tiempo por mantener el tipo de cambio de venta estable y asumir vía resultados la subida o la bajada del JPY. En concreto, en los últimos años las compañías exportadoras japonesas han registrado aumentos de resultados del 20 % compensando el deterioro de los márgenes observado desde el principio de la Crisis.
¿Recuerdan el término de externalización? Ahora les voy a dar una cifra: cerca del 25 % de la inversión de las empresas japonesas se radica en subsidiarias en el extranjero. Este proceso de externalización se ha podido acentuar en los últimos años dada la fuerte apreciación inicial del JPY y por el debate sobre la energía nuclear (y mayor coste energético) tras el Terremoto de 2011. Según datos oficiales, si las ventas de las compañías japonesas han crecido un 14 % desde 2011 las de sus subsidiarias lo han hecho en un 60 %. Al final, más del 60 % de las ventas totales corresponden a las subsidiarias y un 40 % a las matrices.
Por último, con respecto a las cadenas de valor se estima que más del 11 % de sus ventas al exterior incorporan valor añadido internacional. Y a la vez Japón se ha convertido en un importante generador de bienes intermedio, casi un 33 % de sus ventas son este tipo de productos.
Consideren todo lo anterior de forma conjunta y valoren, en un momento como el actual de creciente atención a los tipos de cambio como factor de competitividad, si tiene sentido hablar del riesgo de Guerra de Divisas. Aunque, es cierto, esto no significa que muchos gobiernos obvien los beneficios de tener una moneda depreciada. Aunque sea desde el punto de vista de la política monetaria.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
Lunes, 19 de Octubre del 2015 - 15:52:00
Sin duda es una de las cuestiones, sin respuesta clara por el momento, que generan más inquietud. Los diferentes tratados comerciales firmados o que en este momento se negocian no son la solución a un problema que parece responder a cuestiones tan distintas como el final del ciclo alcista en las materias primas, la inestabilidad en los mercados de capitales internacionales, el deterioro de las perspectivas económicas y hasta la inestabilidad de tipo de cambio….el proteccionismo, ¿por qué no?
El FMI dedica una parte importante de su último Informe mensual a analizar la evolución del comercio mundial. Indaga sobre el peso de las cadenas de producción internacionales (una tercera parte del comercio son bienes intermedios), la importancia real del tipo de cambio y al final cómo repercute todo ello en las economías exportadores de commodities. Y también en las desarrolladas. Japón es un caso extremo.
El JPY se ha depreciado un 35 % en tipo de cambio real efectivo en los últimos tres años, más que compensando su subida entre 2008/2011. ¿Por qué esta teórica mejora en la competitividad no se ha reflejado en una mejora de las ventas?.
Vean el gráfico adjunto.
Al final, las exportaciones ahora son un 20 % por debajo de los niveles previstos. Y me refiero a los modelos teóricos válidos antes de la nueva política Abenomic.
¿Por qué? Las opciones que propone el FMI son tres:
1. Menor sensibilidad del precio de las exportaciones al tipo de cambio
2. Elevado peso de la producción externa sobre las ventas totales
3. Elevado peso de los canales internacionales en las ventas
Sí, no niego que son factores con elevada interconexión. Pero también plantean algunas ideas interesantes que podrían llegar a extrapolarse a otros países.
Con respecto al primer punto anterior, lo cierto es que muchas compañías japonesas dada la inestabilidad del tipo de cambio optaron hace tiempo por mantener el tipo de cambio de venta estable y asumir vía resultados la subida o la bajada del JPY. En concreto, en los últimos años las compañías exportadoras japonesas han registrado aumentos de resultados del 20 % compensando el deterioro de los márgenes observado desde el principio de la Crisis.
¿Recuerdan el término de externalización? Ahora les voy a dar una cifra: cerca del 25 % de la inversión de las empresas japonesas se radica en subsidiarias en el extranjero. Este proceso de externalización se ha podido acentuar en los últimos años dada la fuerte apreciación inicial del JPY y por el debate sobre la energía nuclear (y mayor coste energético) tras el Terremoto de 2011. Según datos oficiales, si las ventas de las compañías japonesas han crecido un 14 % desde 2011 las de sus subsidiarias lo han hecho en un 60 %. Al final, más del 60 % de las ventas totales corresponden a las subsidiarias y un 40 % a las matrices.
Por último, con respecto a las cadenas de valor se estima que más del 11 % de sus ventas al exterior incorporan valor añadido internacional. Y a la vez Japón se ha convertido en un importante generador de bienes intermedio, casi un 33 % de sus ventas son este tipo de productos.
Consideren todo lo anterior de forma conjunta y valoren, en un momento como el actual de creciente atención a los tipos de cambio como factor de competitividad, si tiene sentido hablar del riesgo de Guerra de Divisas. Aunque, es cierto, esto no significa que muchos gobiernos obvien los beneficios de tener una moneda depreciada. Aunque sea desde el punto de vista de la política monetaria.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
por Fenix » Lun Oct 19, 2015 6:14 pm
Deflation = Debt + Demographics + Disruption... But Mostly Debt
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 18:53
"The only way to get velocity to pick up in a benign way is to write off the debt by a meaningful amount. That would have helped in the 2008 global financial crisis if more losses had been imposed on creditors. But that obviously did not happen in 2008 as the policymakers demonstrated that they did not believe in capitalism. Otherwise, the only other way velocity picks up is by an unhealthy hyperinflationary surge reflecting a loss of confidence in central banks, an outcome that becomes more plausible the more extreme the resort to quantitative easing."
IBM Reports Terrible Q3 Earnings: Worst Revenue Since 2002; Slashes Guidance
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 16:45
Moments ago IBM reported what can be defined simply as abysmal results.
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 18:53
"The only way to get velocity to pick up in a benign way is to write off the debt by a meaningful amount. That would have helped in the 2008 global financial crisis if more losses had been imposed on creditors. But that obviously did not happen in 2008 as the policymakers demonstrated that they did not believe in capitalism. Otherwise, the only other way velocity picks up is by an unhealthy hyperinflationary surge reflecting a loss of confidence in central banks, an outcome that becomes more plausible the more extreme the resort to quantitative easing."
IBM Reports Terrible Q3 Earnings: Worst Revenue Since 2002; Slashes Guidance
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 16:45
Moments ago IBM reported what can be defined simply as abysmal results.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
por Fenix » Lun Oct 19, 2015 6:18 pm
US Treasury Folds? Softens Stance On Yuan From "Significantly Undervalued" To "Below Appropriate" Valuation
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 16:43
We presume the 'threat' of selling hundreds of billions of dollars of US Treasuries has prompted a softening in the "Currency manipulator" rhetoric from The US Treasuy department. Having previously said the Yuan is "significantly undervalued," today's report shifts the comment to stating that the Yuan is "below appropriate medium-term valuation." Of course, The US Treasury would know exactly how all of the world's currencies should trade in this centrally-planned world.
VIX Tumbles To 2-Month Lows But Commodites Crumble After China "Good News"
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 16:05
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 16:43
We presume the 'threat' of selling hundreds of billions of dollars of US Treasuries has prompted a softening in the "Currency manipulator" rhetoric from The US Treasuy department. Having previously said the Yuan is "significantly undervalued," today's report shifts the comment to stating that the Yuan is "below appropriate medium-term valuation." Of course, The US Treasury would know exactly how all of the world's currencies should trade in this centrally-planned world.
VIX Tumbles To 2-Month Lows But Commodites Crumble After China "Good News"
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 16:05
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
por Fenix » Lun Oct 19, 2015 6:25 pm
Can Anyone Fix This?
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 13:26
Whoever get elected in 2016 is going to face a crisis every bit as terrible as the crisis of 1860, only this time when the country blows it could come from a dozen different directions and be a lot harder to fix than the secession of Dixieland.
Freddie Mac Launches "Three Percent Down" Mortgages To Lure Millennials
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 12:14
Now that mortgage rates are sliding back to 2015 lows, any sense of urgency from the demand side of the pricing equation has been removed. So what is the alternative? Pushing the supply into overdrive of course, and doing more of precisely what got the US financial system (and the bailed out GSEs) in trouble in the first place: today Freddie Mac, together with Quicken Loans, announced a new lending program, one which would enable "eligible borrowers" and focusing on millennials, to finance a house with a "down payment of as little as three percent."
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 13:26
Whoever get elected in 2016 is going to face a crisis every bit as terrible as the crisis of 1860, only this time when the country blows it could come from a dozen different directions and be a lot harder to fix than the secession of Dixieland.
Freddie Mac Launches "Three Percent Down" Mortgages To Lure Millennials
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 12:14
Now that mortgage rates are sliding back to 2015 lows, any sense of urgency from the demand side of the pricing equation has been removed. So what is the alternative? Pushing the supply into overdrive of course, and doing more of precisely what got the US financial system (and the bailed out GSEs) in trouble in the first place: today Freddie Mac, together with Quicken Loans, announced a new lending program, one which would enable "eligible borrowers" and focusing on millennials, to finance a house with a "down payment of as little as three percent."
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
por Fenix » Lun Oct 19, 2015 6:36 pm
VIX Plunges To 14 Handle - Erases Post-China-Devaluation "Fear"
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 12:13
It would appear there is nothing to fear but fear itself. With The Fed firmly back on the sidelines, VIX has collapsed from its 50-plus highs on Black Monday back to a 14 handle - the same level it was trading before China devalued in mid-August... everything is awesome once again.
Traders Are Panic-Selling T-Bills After Jack Lew Warns Of "Terrible" Debt Limit Accident
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 11:49
The one-month-ish Treasury Bills that mature November 18th are collapsing. Following comments this morning by Treasury Secretary Jack Lew that the US will run out of cash on November 3rd and his warning of a "terrible" debt limit accident, the 11/18/15 T-Bills have seen yields explode from -1bp to 7bps - an unprecedented 8bps spike as investors panic-sell beyond the deadline. WI 1month bills are over 11bps! As Barclays Joseph Abate warns, "This is the beginning...Nervousness is ratcheting higher”
The Truth Behind China's GDP Mirage: Economic Growth Slows To 1999 Levels
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 11:05
For the second time this year, China's GDP deflator turned negative, meaning that in addition to any deliberate misrepresentations, Beijing may also be overstating GDP by way of a statistical shortcoming. Ultimately, they're habitually understating inflation for domestic output which means that "real" GDP is probably less "real" than nominal GDP.
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 12:13
It would appear there is nothing to fear but fear itself. With The Fed firmly back on the sidelines, VIX has collapsed from its 50-plus highs on Black Monday back to a 14 handle - the same level it was trading before China devalued in mid-August... everything is awesome once again.
Traders Are Panic-Selling T-Bills After Jack Lew Warns Of "Terrible" Debt Limit Accident
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 11:49
The one-month-ish Treasury Bills that mature November 18th are collapsing. Following comments this morning by Treasury Secretary Jack Lew that the US will run out of cash on November 3rd and his warning of a "terrible" debt limit accident, the 11/18/15 T-Bills have seen yields explode from -1bp to 7bps - an unprecedented 8bps spike as investors panic-sell beyond the deadline. WI 1month bills are over 11bps! As Barclays Joseph Abate warns, "This is the beginning...Nervousness is ratcheting higher”
The Truth Behind China's GDP Mirage: Economic Growth Slows To 1999 Levels
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 11:05
For the second time this year, China's GDP deflator turned negative, meaning that in addition to any deliberate misrepresentations, Beijing may also be overstating GDP by way of a statistical shortcoming. Ultimately, they're habitually understating inflation for domestic output which means that "real" GDP is probably less "real" than nominal GDP.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
por Fenix » Lun Oct 19, 2015 6:58 pm
Homebuilder Sentiment Surges To Highest In 10 Years On "Hope" Of Future Sales
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 10:09
Homebuilders are optimistic... When you career relies on confidence, what more would one expect? But in this case, despite some weakness in current data and stangant buyer traffic, the HANB sentiment index surged to new cycle highs - at the highest since Oct 2005 - thanks to a surge in "futures sales expectations." Seems to us like betting on homebuilders' ability to see the future, given 2006 onwards is lkike believing Yellen has everything "contained" this time too...
Morgan Stanley Q3 Earnings Crash, Revenues Miss By $1.2 Billion; Volatility And Burst Chinese Stock Bubble Blamed
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 07:29
While the big TBTF banks managed to hide much of their ugly balance sheet exposure, and prevent it from hitting the income statement in Q3 as reported previously, while covering up prop trading losses as well as they possibly could, the banks without trillions in deposits were less able to do so: first it was Jefferies, then Goldman posted its worst quarter in years, and now here comes the bank also known as Margin Stanley, which moments ago reported Q3 EPS of $0.34, which even if adjusted for various "one-time" items, at $0.48, not only missed consensus of $0.63 wildly, but it also missed the lowest range of the estimate range ($0.53-$0.70).
Undersize Me? McDonald's Franchise Owners Admit Fast Food Giant "Facing Its Final Days"
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/18/2015 - 21:00
“We are in the throes of a deep depression, and nothing is changing,” a franchise owner wrote in response to a financial survey by Nomura Group that warned "probably 30% of operators are insolvent." One owner went as far as to speculate that McDonald’s is literally “facing its final days.”
Trump Says Yellen Keeping Rates Low To Protect Obama
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/18/2015 - 19:54
"Yellen is doing this with the blessing of the President because he doesn’t want to have a recession - or worse- in his administration. I’m a developer, I’m not complaining from my own standpoint, I’m just saying that at some point, you have to raise interest rates, you pay nothing. They are trying to put the recession - and it could be a beauty - into the next administration."
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 10:09
Homebuilders are optimistic... When you career relies on confidence, what more would one expect? But in this case, despite some weakness in current data and stangant buyer traffic, the HANB sentiment index surged to new cycle highs - at the highest since Oct 2005 - thanks to a surge in "futures sales expectations." Seems to us like betting on homebuilders' ability to see the future, given 2006 onwards is lkike believing Yellen has everything "contained" this time too...
Morgan Stanley Q3 Earnings Crash, Revenues Miss By $1.2 Billion; Volatility And Burst Chinese Stock Bubble Blamed
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/19/2015 - 07:29
While the big TBTF banks managed to hide much of their ugly balance sheet exposure, and prevent it from hitting the income statement in Q3 as reported previously, while covering up prop trading losses as well as they possibly could, the banks without trillions in deposits were less able to do so: first it was Jefferies, then Goldman posted its worst quarter in years, and now here comes the bank also known as Margin Stanley, which moments ago reported Q3 EPS of $0.34, which even if adjusted for various "one-time" items, at $0.48, not only missed consensus of $0.63 wildly, but it also missed the lowest range of the estimate range ($0.53-$0.70).
Undersize Me? McDonald's Franchise Owners Admit Fast Food Giant "Facing Its Final Days"
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/18/2015 - 21:00
“We are in the throes of a deep depression, and nothing is changing,” a franchise owner wrote in response to a financial survey by Nomura Group that warned "probably 30% of operators are insolvent." One owner went as far as to speculate that McDonald’s is literally “facing its final days.”
Trump Says Yellen Keeping Rates Low To Protect Obama
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/18/2015 - 19:54
"Yellen is doing this with the blessing of the President because he doesn’t want to have a recession - or worse- in his administration. I’m a developer, I’m not complaining from my own standpoint, I’m just saying that at some point, you have to raise interest rates, you pay nothing. They are trying to put the recession - and it could be a beauty - into the next administration."
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
por Fenix » Lun Oct 19, 2015 7:09 pm
Goldman Mocks "Constitutionally Dovish" Fed, Sees December Rate Hike Odds At 60% To Offset "Credibility Problem"
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/18/2015 - 14:52
Q: Why do you still expect the FOMC to hike rates in December?
A: Because the FOMC leadership has said that a rate hike by the end of the year is likely if the economy and markets evolve broadly as expected. Our near-term forecast is similar to theirs, so our baseline is also that they hike.
Saudis Poke The Russian Bear, Start Oil War In Eastern Europe
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/18/2015 - 13:43
"[Putin] hopes that when its ally Iran re-enters the global oil and gas market, Russia will somehow share in the profits, perhaps through new pipelines across Syria. He also wants to stop the Saudis from establishing export routes in Syria. Now that Russian energy supremacy in Europe also is at stake, Putin's determination to resolve the Syrian conflict on his terms can only grow."
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/18/2015 - 14:52
Q: Why do you still expect the FOMC to hike rates in December?
A: Because the FOMC leadership has said that a rate hike by the end of the year is likely if the economy and markets evolve broadly as expected. Our near-term forecast is similar to theirs, so our baseline is also that they hike.
Saudis Poke The Russian Bear, Start Oil War In Eastern Europe
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/18/2015 - 13:43
"[Putin] hopes that when its ally Iran re-enters the global oil and gas market, Russia will somehow share in the profits, perhaps through new pipelines across Syria. He also wants to stop the Saudis from establishing export routes in Syria. Now that Russian energy supremacy in Europe also is at stake, Putin's determination to resolve the Syrian conflict on his terms can only grow."
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
por Fenix » Lun Oct 19, 2015 7:23 pm
NIRP Goes To Nippon: Japan Auctions 1 Year Paper At Most Negative Yield On Record
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/17/2015 - 15:58
What is surprising about Japan is that unlike most of Europe, which has opted to adopt a Negative Interest Rate Policy, or NIRP, is that Japan whose monetary policy became a basket case years ago - Japan is currently on QE10 - it still hasn't thrown in the "all-in" towel and announced negative rates. This may have officially changed yesterday, when in an auction that flew deep under the radar, Japan sold 1 Year (not 3 Month) Bills at the most negative yield in history, or -0.0418%, nearly doubly more negative the -0.0252% yield on the September 16 auction.
China Officially Sold A Quarter Trillion Treasurys In The Past Year (Unofficially Much More) And What This Means
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/17/2015 - 11:28
While to many Quantitative Tightening is a novel concept, the reality is that China (+ Euroclear) have been dumping Treasurys and liquidating reserves since January when total holdings peaked at $1.6 trillion last summer, and have since declined to $1.38 trillion. It means that China has sold a quarter trillion dollars worth of Treasurys in the past year, in the process offsetting what would have been about 25% of the Fed's QE3.
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/17/2015 - 15:58
What is surprising about Japan is that unlike most of Europe, which has opted to adopt a Negative Interest Rate Policy, or NIRP, is that Japan whose monetary policy became a basket case years ago - Japan is currently on QE10 - it still hasn't thrown in the "all-in" towel and announced negative rates. This may have officially changed yesterday, when in an auction that flew deep under the radar, Japan sold 1 Year (not 3 Month) Bills at the most negative yield in history, or -0.0418%, nearly doubly more negative the -0.0252% yield on the September 16 auction.
China Officially Sold A Quarter Trillion Treasurys In The Past Year (Unofficially Much More) And What This Means
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/17/2015 - 11:28
While to many Quantitative Tightening is a novel concept, the reality is that China (+ Euroclear) have been dumping Treasurys and liquidating reserves since January when total holdings peaked at $1.6 trillion last summer, and have since declined to $1.38 trillion. It means that China has sold a quarter trillion dollars worth of Treasurys in the past year, in the process offsetting what would have been about 25% of the Fed's QE3.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
por Fenix » Lun Oct 19, 2015 7:32 pm
"Its Not The Economy Stupid, It's The Dollar"
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 21:50
"It's not the economy... it's the dollar" - That would appear to be the message from the companies of the S&P 500 who have reported in Q3. As FactSet reports, 18 of the 23 companies reporting so far have cited "the strong dollar" as having a negative impact on earnings. Not record domestic inventories (liquidation beginning), the plunge in world trade, not the economic collapse in take your pick of Brazil (depression), China (credit endgame), India (exports/imports crash), and so on...
Obamacare's Latest Casualty: Largest Health Insurer On Colorado Exchange Abruptly Collapses
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 20:26
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 21:50
"It's not the economy... it's the dollar" - That would appear to be the message from the companies of the S&P 500 who have reported in Q3. As FactSet reports, 18 of the 23 companies reporting so far have cited "the strong dollar" as having a negative impact on earnings. Not record domestic inventories (liquidation beginning), the plunge in world trade, not the economic collapse in take your pick of Brazil (depression), China (credit endgame), India (exports/imports crash), and so on...
Obamacare's Latest Casualty: Largest Health Insurer On Colorado Exchange Abruptly Collapses
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 20:26
- Fenix
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Re: Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
por Fenix » Lun Oct 19, 2015 7:41 pm
"Shadow" Short Convexity: If You Short 'Fear', Be Prepared For 'Horror'
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 18:55
The 2007-2008 financial crash was not a black swan. That is a collective lie propagated by policy makers so they don’t cry themselves to sleep at night. Many different people predicted and profited from the 2008 crisis. It was about the fear of failing banks and crashing markets... but the true horror was the impending collapse of the entire fiat money system that never came to be. That was the true black swan.
Capital Controls Blowback? Bitcoin Surges Back To Pre-China-Currency Wars Levels
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 17:10
At $267, Bitcoin has retraced the entire plunge from China's initial devaluation entry into the currency wars and the Black Monday dump. It appears, just as we warned, that China's increasing crackdown on its - until now lax - capital controls has spurred demand for alternate 'currencies' that remain out of the control (for now) of governments - like gold... and bitcoin.
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 18:55
The 2007-2008 financial crash was not a black swan. That is a collective lie propagated by policy makers so they don’t cry themselves to sleep at night. Many different people predicted and profited from the 2008 crisis. It was about the fear of failing banks and crashing markets... but the true horror was the impending collapse of the entire fiat money system that never came to be. That was the true black swan.
Capital Controls Blowback? Bitcoin Surges Back To Pre-China-Currency Wars Levels
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 17:10
At $267, Bitcoin has retraced the entire plunge from China's initial devaluation entry into the currency wars and the Black Monday dump. It appears, just as we warned, that China's increasing crackdown on its - until now lax - capital controls has spurred demand for alternate 'currencies' that remain out of the control (for now) of governments - like gold... and bitcoin.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
por Fenix » Lun Oct 19, 2015 7:55 pm
Gold ETF Holdings Surge Most In 9 Months
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 12:55
Amid the best 4-day gains in gold prices since January, Gold ETFs have seen a surge in holdings in the last 2 days. The 412,000 try ounce increase in physical holdings at GLD is the largest in 9 months and lifts the total to 3 month highs at 22.5 million troy ounces (or 700 metric tons).
Twitter Jumps After Steve Ballmer Confirms He Bought 4% Stake
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 11:40
When @Steven_Ballmer tweeted last night about acquiring a 4% stake in TWTR, many thought he was either hacked or the account was bogus. It appears, given Bloomberg headlines that this has been confirmed. A 4% stake makes him a bigger holder than Jack Dorsey who owns 3.2%.
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 12:55
Amid the best 4-day gains in gold prices since January, Gold ETFs have seen a surge in holdings in the last 2 days. The 412,000 try ounce increase in physical holdings at GLD is the largest in 9 months and lifts the total to 3 month highs at 22.5 million troy ounces (or 700 metric tons).
Twitter Jumps After Steve Ballmer Confirms He Bought 4% Stake
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 11:40
When @Steven_Ballmer tweeted last night about acquiring a 4% stake in TWTR, many thought he was either hacked or the account was bogus. It appears, given Bloomberg headlines that this has been confirmed. A 4% stake makes him a bigger holder than Jack Dorsey who owns 3.2%.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
por Fenix » Lun Oct 19, 2015 8:03 pm
As Worldwide Sales Collapse, VW's Dieselgate Scandal Could Cost Up To $87 Billion In Total
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 10:38
"The market does not appear to be discounting negative knock-on effects. The outcome for recall costs and fines is unclear and largely depends on the engine performance post repair," said a Credit Suisse analyst in its report on the scandal. Estimates from Credit Suisse peg the costs of Dieselgate at a worst-case scenarios of $87 billion. This would make the VW scandal could be even bigger than Enron Scandal and BP Deepwater Scandal combined.
Industrial Production For Oil And Gas Well Drilling Drops To Lowest This Century
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 09:26
Industrial Production growth in The US has now slwoed for 10 straight months, rising just 0.4% YoY in September - the weakest growth since Dec 2009 - signaling the path to recession is clear. Manufacturing production YoY slowed to just 1.4% - the slowest since Feb 2014. For the 8th month of the last 9 IP fell MoM with a 0.2% drop in September as a modest revsion higher in autos was offset by a plunge in Oil and Gas Drilling to the lowest this century (down 4% after rising 1.7% last month).
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 10:38
"The market does not appear to be discounting negative knock-on effects. The outcome for recall costs and fines is unclear and largely depends on the engine performance post repair," said a Credit Suisse analyst in its report on the scandal. Estimates from Credit Suisse peg the costs of Dieselgate at a worst-case scenarios of $87 billion. This would make the VW scandal could be even bigger than Enron Scandal and BP Deepwater Scandal combined.
Industrial Production For Oil And Gas Well Drilling Drops To Lowest This Century
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 09:26
Industrial Production growth in The US has now slwoed for 10 straight months, rising just 0.4% YoY in September - the weakest growth since Dec 2009 - signaling the path to recession is clear. Manufacturing production YoY slowed to just 1.4% - the slowest since Feb 2014. For the 8th month of the last 9 IP fell MoM with a 0.2% drop in September as a modest revsion higher in autos was offset by a plunge in Oil and Gas Drilling to the lowest this century (down 4% after rising 1.7% last month).
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
por admin » Lun Oct 19, 2015 8:06 pm
Las ventas de IBM cayeron 14%
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Re: Lunes 19/10/15 Indice de casas
por Fenix » Lun Oct 19, 2015 8:13 pm
QE "Barbell" Returns: Biggest Junk Bonds Inflow In 8 Months; Most Gold Buying In 7 Weeks
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 08:45
The cross asset whiplash events, coming at a furious pace unseen since 2009, continue, and while the late September surge driven by a historic short squeeze served to massively boost equities, other risk assets were also impacted. Case in point: junk bonds, which after becoming one of the most unloved asset classes in 2015 due to their exposure to energy assets, took advantage of the latest vicious squeeze in crude, and notched their biggest inflow in 8 months, even as gold just saw its biggest "QE-on" buying in the past 7 weeks.
Nasdaq 100 Facing Key Challenge For Stock Rally
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 08:13
The ability of the Nasdaq 100 to overcome nearby resistance would be one of the first price-based signs that the current stock rally may be more than just a mean-reversion bounce.
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 08:45
The cross asset whiplash events, coming at a furious pace unseen since 2009, continue, and while the late September surge driven by a historic short squeeze served to massively boost equities, other risk assets were also impacted. Case in point: junk bonds, which after becoming one of the most unloved asset classes in 2015 due to their exposure to energy assets, took advantage of the latest vicious squeeze in crude, and notched their biggest inflow in 8 months, even as gold just saw its biggest "QE-on" buying in the past 7 weeks.
Nasdaq 100 Facing Key Challenge For Stock Rally
Submitted by Tyler D.
10/16/2015 - 08:13
The ability of the Nasdaq 100 to overcome nearby resistance would be one of the first price-based signs that the current stock rally may be more than just a mean-reversion bounce.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
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