Martes 03/11/15 Ordenes de fabricas

[Fenix]

One Analyst Says China's Banking Sector Is Sitting On A $3 Trillion Neutron Bomb
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/02/2015 - 20:35

"While traditional bank loans are not Chu’s prime focus -- she looks at the wider picture, including shadow banking -- she says her work suggests that nonperforming loans may be at 20 percent to 21 percent, or even higher."


The UN Plans To Implement Universal Biometric Identification For All Of Humanity By 2030
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/02/2015 - 20:10

Did you know that the United Nations intends to have biometric identification cards in the hands of every single man, woman and child on the entire planet by the year 2030? And did you know that a central database in Geneva, Switzerland will be collecting data from many of these cards?


S&P Puts Too-Big-To-Fail US Banks On Ratings Downgrade Watch, Blames Fed
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/02/2015 - 19:40

Having watched the credit markets grow more and more weary of the major US financials, it should not be total surprise that ratings agency S&P just put all the majors on watch for a rating downgrade:JPMORGAN, BANK OF AMERICA, WELLS FARGO, CITIGROUP, GOLDMAN SACHS, STATE STREET CORP, MORGAN STANLEY MAY BE CUT BY S&P. Despite all the talking heads proclamations on higher rates and net interest margins and 'strongest balance sheets' ever, S&P obviously sees something more worrisome looming. S&P blames The Fed's new resolution regime for its shift, implying "extraordinary support" no longer factored in. This comes just hours after Moody's put Bank of Nova Scotia on review also (blaming the move on concerns over increased risk appetite).


San Fran Fed Defends Rate Hike, Says Ignore Terrible Wage Growth Data
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/02/2015 - 19:20

It is becoming increasingly clear that, come hell, high water, or dismal data, The Federal Reserve will raise rates in December whether the market likes it (which it will guarantee) or the economy doesn't (which doesn't matter after all). Fischer brushed off weak inflation (at Jackson Hole), Yellen dismissed global turmoil cocnerns (in the last FOMC statement), and now, with the final nail in the coffin of data-dependent lies, The San Fran Fed just dismissed 'wage growth' as entirely irrelevent for forecasting future growth or inflation; thus enabling The Fed to justify a December rate-hike no matter how bad the data they are so dependent on turns out to be.


Transcanada Just Killed The Keystone XL Pipeline
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/02/2015 - 19:04

In an ironic twist, just hours after we discussed the record capital outflow from Canada, resulting from the plunge in oil prices and the mothballing of Canada's energy industry, Obama's long-desired goal of killing the Keystone XL pipline has finally come true.

[Fenix]

The Truth Arrives: JPM Slams ZIRP - "It Has Been Impeding Rather Than Promoting Economic Recovery"
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/03/2015 - 10:20

"zero interest rate policy actually reduces demand in the economy, prompting the Federal Reserve to prescribe even further doses of a medicine that, for a long time, has been impeding rather than promoting economic recovery."

- JPM's David Kelly


Bitcoin Surges To 1 Year Highs, Up 100% From "China Capital Controls" August Lows
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/03/2015 - 12:10

Bitcoin, at $400, is now at its highest since November 2014, having surged over 100% since the late-August 2015 lows when we first warned of China capital outflows using the virtual currency conduit. As we suggested, and was confirmed overnight, it appears the Chinese are just getting started




What's Next: Deflation, Inflation, Or Hyperinflation?
11/03/2015 11:55 -0500
Submitted by Bill Bonner
We are not the only publishers to offer opinions. And not the only ones with alternative points of view. So, to answer these questions, let’s look first at the range of opinions on offer…

First, there is “the authorities must know what they are doing… besides, I have more important things to think about” camp. This is by far the largest group: hoi polloi. The masses. The lumpenproletariat.

border collie

Saved by the border collie

There may be some grumbling and kvetching. But most people count on the feds to manage the economy, foreign policy, the future, and the government. They expect mistakes from time to time. But they also believe the system can be trusted to produce an acceptable, although perhaps not always ideal, outcome.

And if not, God help them. Because the difference between the outcome if they bothered to think about it and the outcome if they didn’t is the same. They have no ability to influence public policy… and not much room to maneuver in their private lives.

They get salaries, pensions, Social Security. They need jobs, mortgages, student loans, and medical insurance. They have little capital to invest or protect. They depend so heavily on “the system” that they can’t afford to believe there is something deeply wrong with it. They go along. They get along.



sheeple

Going along, getting along…

At the other end of the idea spectrum, there are the edgy, malcontent, and extremely marginal opinions. A man, sitting in his double-wide watching TV can come to hold all sorts of wacky views. There is an entire infotainment industry that provides screwball opinions.

You want to believe Obama is a Muslim? You want to believe the Bilderbergers, the Rothschilds, or the Rockefellers run the world? You want to know about GM’s perpetual-motion engine that – if the secret got out – would put the entire auto industry out of business?



covercheneyrobot

We always knew it….

Well, that is a market. But it is not ours. Let others fill that demand. There used to be a tabloid newspaper called Weekly World News. You would see it at the convenience store, right in front of the checkout with enticing headlines such as: “Garden of Eden Found”… “Obama Adds Himself to Mount Rushmore”… or “150-Year-Old Man Finally Graduates from High School.”



pope hat

There was a second pope hiding under the pope’s hat! More popes to come?!

Our favorite was a front-page photo of an airplane crashed on the surface of the moon. “WWII Bomber Found on Moon,” was the headline. “Pilot Error, Say Experts.”



ww-2-bomber

Finally found on the moon! Needless to say, this was quite a significant pilot error


Terminal Problem

But it is the far-out world of money, economics, and finance that interests us. We try to figure it out. We try to understand. We try to see what’s coming before it arrives. And we try to be serious about it.

Apart from the mainstream view – that the authorities have things under control – almost all serious analysts see a terminal problem developing. The current situation (with zero and even negative interest rates… and debt expanding much faster than GDP) can’t go on.

It had a beginning, in the early 1980s. It must also have an end. Most of the guesswork is now focused on when and how that end comes.



the end

The real reason why the end is near: Elvis told Bigfoot to shut us down!

Recently, one of our dear readers summarized the three major points of view, along with one minor one:

Deflation Camp

Harry Dent is in line with the Austrian Business Cycle Theory: Money printing causes financial bubbles, distorts the economy, and is therefore counterproductive. Like Bob Prechter (I don’t follow him closely, but his argumentation sounds similar), Dent bets on deflation and depression.



Fighting debt deleveraging and demographics is like putting yourself in front of a tsunami. In such an environment, the U.S. dollar would gain purchasing power, and gold would underperform significantly. (Harry sees it back to $700 in 2018-19.) Cash/T-bills/short-term Treasurys are the place to be. Rates will stay low for very long.



Inflation Camp

Jim Rickards’ thesis – “inflate debt away via a massive issuance of SDRs after China has joined the club” – is also very credible. World currencies are massively diluted via issuance of SDRs, which serve only the powers that be. Rather than a new gold standard, this is the solution to Triffin’s dilemma (more flexibility for the elite).



[Triffin’s dilemma describes the constant need for the global reserve currency issuer – in this case, the U.S. – to supply the world with reserve currency by way of a long-term trade deficit. Eventually, argued Yale economist Robert Triffin, this would lead to a loss of confidence in the reserve currency.]



Citizens are excluded/not allowed to own SDRs. Their purchasing power shrinks. They don’t know who to blame. The IMF does not consist of elected officials, and the majority of the population doesn’t even know it plays a role in creating inflation. And they can pretend that they have to save the world, too. (Remember the Greek bailout?)



Hyperinflation Camp

Shadow Stats’ John Williams is having a really hard time fighting for his ideas. He is right about the “CPI-CP Lie” and the current true state of the economy. But whoever invests along his ideas is running out of capital to stay in the game.



Peter Schiff and Mike Maloney are on a similar line. The problem with them is that they have a conflict of interest with their businesses. But I have no doubt about their integrity: They do/live what they say.



Deflation to Hyperinflation Camp

I recall an interview with Nassim Taleb on Bloomberg TV in 2009 when he said, “We will go from deflation to hyperinflation without seeing inflation.”



nassim-taleb580_101416a

Nassim Taleb, from one extreme to the other …


Tokyo to Buenos Aires

Our view is that Taleb will be proved right. Back in 2009, we predicted “Tokyo… then Buenos Aires” – a Japan-like deflation, followed by Argentine-like hyperinflation. Most likely, there will be no stop in between for moderate levels of inflation. Inflation, as economist Milton Friedman observed, is “always and everywhere” a monetary phenomenon.

But hyperinflation is a political phenomenon. It is caused by those same authorities the masses think they can trust. When they are threatened, they will protect themselves by printing money on a scale we haven’t seen since the War Between the States (consumer prices in Richmond, Virginia, had risen 6,700% by the end of the war).



Confederate_100_Dollars

100 dollars printed by the Confederate States in Richmond, Virginia

There are times when printing money seems like the best course of action – especially for the people running the printing press. It may not do the common man any good, but it gets the feds out of a jam. But that is a long story… and one for the future.

We’re still in a Japan-like long, slow slump. And it looks as though we’re going to be there a while longer.

[Fenix]

Nasdaq Surges To Most Overbought In A Year As 'Greed' Nears 2015 Peak
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/03/2015 - 11:05

The last time The Nasdaq was this overbought, the index peaked and dropped 7% in the next week. With 'Greed' near 2015 highs, perhaps the decoupling of VIX from stocks suggests many have similar ideas of hedging these exuberant gains.


Introducing Fannie Mae's Instant Underwater Mortgage - 3% Down, No Cash Needed
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/03/2015 - 14:00

Will we never learn?



Another Inconvenient Truth? New NASA Study Finds Antarctica Is Gaining Ice
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/03/2015 - 15:15

Well this is awkward. Just a month after former Aussie PM Tony Abbott openly questioned global warming data (and was 'replaced'), a new NASA study finds another inconvenient truth - Antarctica has been adding more ice than it's been losing, challenging other research, including that of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that concludes that Earth’s southern continent is losing land ice overall. Perhaps it is time to burn just a little more fossil fuel? And maybe VW was doing a global good with its defeat device? Paging Al Gore.


Subprime Auto Goes Full-Retard: Lender Sells $154 Million ABS Deal Backed By Loans To Borrowers With No Credit
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/03/2015 - 15:36

Remember Skopos Financial, the US subprime auto lender run by Santander Consumer veterans? Well, in a testament to just how desperate America is to perpetuate the US auto market "renaissance," the company just sold $154 millon worth of paper to investors partially backed by loans to borrowers with no credit score.


A Furious Trump Goes After Janet Yellen: "She Is Not Raising Rates Because Obama Told Her Not To"
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/03/2015 - 15:21

"In my opinion Janet Yellen is highly political and she's not raising rates for a very specific reason: because Obama told her not to because he wants to be out playing golf in a year from now and he wants to be doing other things and he doesn't want to see a big bubble burst during his administration."

[Fenix]

Apocalypse Now: Has Next Giant Financial Crash Already Begun?
Submitted by GoldCore on 11/03/2015 11:17 -0500

Apocalypse Now: Has Next Giant Financial Crash Already Begun?

Paul Mason, writing in The Guardian, describes how we are already at the beginning of a financial Apocalyse. “A predicted global meltdown passed without event. But there are enough warning signs to suggest we are sleepwalking into another disaster”.

He suggests all the signs are present to indicate that the financial apocalyse has begun:

“Let’s assemble the evidence. First, the unsustainable debt. Since 2007, the pile of debt in the world has grown by $57tn (£37tn). That’s a compound annual growth rate of 5.3%, significantly beating GDP. Debts have doubled in the so-called emerging markets, while rising by just over a third in the developed world”.



“John Maynard Keynes once wrote that money is a “link to the future” – meaning that what we do with money is a signal of what we think is going to happen in the future. What we’ve done with credit since the global crisis of 2008 is expand it faster than the economy – which can only be done rationally if we think the future is going to be much richer than the present”.



“This summer, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) pointed out that certain major economies were seeing a sharp rise in debt-to-GDP ratios, which were well outside historic norms. In China, the rest of Asia and Brazil, private-sector borrowing has risen so quickly that BIS’s dashboard of risk is flashing red. In two thirds of all cases, red warnings such as this are followed by a major banking crisis within three years.”



“The underlying cause of this debt glut is the $12tn of free or cheap money created by central banks since 2009, combined with near-zero interest rates. When the real price of money is close to zero, people borrow and worry about the consequences later.”



“So, the biggest risk to the world, despite its growing seriousness, is not the deflation of a bubble. It is the risk of that becoming intertwined with geopolitics. Any politician who minimises or ignores this risk is doing what the purblind economists did in the run up to 2008?.

[Fenix]

You Will Not Be Warned When the Bank Holidays Come
Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 11/03/2015 13:50 -0500

Behind the veneer of “all is well” being promoted by both world Governments and the Mainstream Media, the political elite have begun implementing legislation that will permit them to freeze accounts and use your savings to prop up insolvent banks.



This is not conspiracy theory or some kind of doom and gloom. It’s basic fact.



In the last 24 months, Canada, Cyprus, New Zealand, the US, the UK, and now Germany have all implemented legislation that would allow them to first FREEZE and then SEIZE bank assets during the next crisis.



With that in mind, I want to devote some time to what has come out concerning the Cyprus “bail-in” and its implications. The reason for this is that this tiny country has provided the world with a template of what is eventually going to be a global phenomenon.



The quick timeline for Cyprus is as follows:



· June 25, 2012: Cyprus formally requests a bailout from the EU.

· November 24, 2012: Cyprus announces it has reached an agreement with the EU the bailout process once Cyprus banks are examined by EU officials (ballpark estimate of capital needed is €17.5 billion).

· February 25, 2013: Democratic Rally candidate Nicos Anastasiades wins Cypriot election defeating his opponent, an anti-austerity Communist.

· March 16 2013: Cyprus announces the terms of its bail-in: a 6.75% confiscation of accounts under €100,000 and 9.9% for accounts larger than €100,000… a bank holiday is announced.

· March 17 2013: emergency session of Parliament to vote on bailout/bail-in is postponed.

· March 18 2013: Bank holiday extended until March 21 2013.

· March 19 2013: Cyprus parliament rejects bail-in bill.

· March 20 2013: Bank holiday extended until March 26 2013.

· March 24 2013: Cash limits of €100 in withdrawals begin for largest banks in Cyprus.

· March 25 2013: Bail-in deal agreed upon. Those depositors with over €100,000 either lose 40% of their money (Bank of Cyprus) or lose 60% (Laiki).



The most important thing I want you to focus on is the speed of these events.



Cypriot banks formally requested a bailout back in June 2012. The bailout talks took months to perform. And then the entire system came unhinged in one weekend.



One weekend. The process was not gradual. It was sudden and it was total: once it began in earnest, the banks were closed and you couldn’t get your money out (more on this in a moment).



There were no warnings that this was coming because everyone at the top of the financial food chain are highly incentivized to keep quiet about this. Central Banks, Bank CEOs, politicians… all of these people are focused primarily on maintaining CONFIDENCE in the system, NOT on fixing the system’s problems. Indeed, they cannot even openly discuss the system’s problems because it would quickly reveal that they are a primary cause of them.



For that reason, you will never and I repeat NEVER see a Central banker, Bank CEO, or politician admit openly what is happening in the financial system. Even middle managers and lower level employees won’t talk about it because A) they don’t know the truth concerning their institutions or B) they could be fired for warning others.



Please take a few minutes to digest what I’m telling you here. You will not be warned of the risks to your wealth by anyone in a position of power in the political financial hierarchy (with the exception of folks like Ron Paul who are usually marginalized by the media).



With that in mind, now is a good time to prepare for systemic risk. I cannot forecast precisely when things will get as ugly as they did in Cyprus for the financial system as a whole (no one can).



However, the clear signals are clear that the Feds are preparing for something big. The Treasury Department has ordered survival kits for the Big Banks’ employees… and the NY Fed is expanding its satellite office in Chicago in case something major happens that forces the market to collapse.



We’ve put together a FREE Special Report outlining the new legislation that permits This is just the start of a much larger strategy of declaring War on Cash.



Indeed, we've uncovered a secret document outlining how the Fed plans to incinerate savings to force investors away from cash and into riskier assets.

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