Miercoles 04/11/15 ISM no manufacturero, empleo privado

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¿Por qué sufrían los emergentes si las condiciones financieras eran laxas?

Mi�rcoles, 4 de Noviembre del 2015 - 15:52:00

Resultados de otro panel también de política monetaria. En este caso del BIS. Se celebró a principios de octubre, dentro de la Reunión de otoño del FMI.

Pero aquí la cuestión era mucho más específicas: ¿por qué sufrían los mercados emergentes si las condiciones financieras a nivel mundial eran laxas?. Consideren que, en estos momentos, son las economías y mercados emergentes las que pasan a ser el principal foco de preocupación a nivel mundial. Y más allá de China (que también).

Al final, la política monetaria expansiva de los países desarrollados desde el inicio de la Crisis ha tenido consecuencias a nivel mundial.

* Efecto contagio de política monetaria
* Efecto contagio a través de las carteras de los inversores
* Efecto sobre las divisas
* Efecto de las monedas benchmark, considerando que son sus bancos centrales los que han (y están aún) aplicando medidas extremas en política monetaria
* Búsqueda de rentabilidad frente al riesgo que ha presionado al alza los activos domésticos a nivel mundial

Al final, ¿qué ha cambiado para que ahora la liquidez, abundante, huya de estas economías y mercados?.
Hay dos posiciones:

1. La acumulación de factores externos: geopolítica, commodities y la propia incertidumbre sobre China

2. Factores domésticos: políticos, sociales y especialmente vulnerabilidades económicas/financieras gestadas en buena parte durante la década anterior de exceso de liquidez


Lo llamativo de todo esto es que, no hace tanto, los economistas valorábamos de forma muy positiva los cambios estructurales llevados a cabo en las economías emergentes. Incluso las instituciones internacionales, con el FMI a la cabeza, consideraban como un rasgo de fortaleza de la economía mundial la solidez de estas economías. ¿No veían los riesgos? ¿los infravaloraban en un contexto de subida de los mercados internacionales?.

Algunos economistas observan lo que está ocurriendo en las economías y mercados emergentes con inquietud. No sólo por el potencial impacto que puede tener sobre el resto de las economías y mercados financieros internacionales, como también por ser un potencial ejemplo del día después de la retirada de las medidas monetarias expansivas. ¿No es la salida de capitales algo similar al drenaje de liquidez si los bancos centrales reducen su balance? ¿no son las tensiones en la deuda un ejemplo de la subida de tipos hacia niveles neutrales tras retirarse la demanda de los bancos centrales? ¿no es la inestabilidad del tipo de cambio un riesgo una vez que la distorsión de los mercados desaparezca?. Al final, ¿no afloran las debilidades y riesgos cuando se deteriora el apetito por el riesgo inversor generado por unas condiciones financieras demasiado laxas?. Con todo, es relevante, que las autoridades diferentes a las monetarias asuman que estas debilidades existen y que tomen medidas para corregirlas. Pero esto no es fácil.

Lo cierto es que la actuación doméstica de los bancos centrales desarrollados ha obviado que los mercados financieros (y economías) están interconectados. Como dice el BIS, "el juego es global, pero las reglas son locales".


José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

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Housing Crisis: Australians Resort To Renting Tents As Cost Of Living Skyrockets
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/03/2015 - 20:05

"Tent outside - full use of apartment - cheap - $90"

"I have a caravan in my driveway that I'm going to rent out."




Goldman Warns "VIX Seems Low", Significantly Underpricing Economic Uncertainty
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/03/2015 19:40 -0500

"The options market seems to either be anticipating an inflection higher in the economic data, no rate hike, or an extreme lack of catalysts between now and year-end," according to Goldman Sachs' Krag Gregory. With VIX trading with a 13 handle, Gregroy warns, it is notably under-priced relative a 19 handle more in line with economic and policy uncertainty. The potential for volatility to swing higher seems more likely.

The VIX landed at 14.2 on November 2nd, back down to its average closing level during the low volatility years of 2013 and 2014.



That seems low to us given recent weakness in the U.S. economic data and a potential rate hike in December. The options market seems to either be anticipating an inflection higher in the economic data, no rate hike, or an extreme lack of catalysts between now and year-end.

Argument for higher volatility: Uncertainty surrounding a mediocre economy + FOMC reaction function; GDP of 1.5% and ISM @ 50 are more consistent with a 19 VIX

Our VIX model uses economic inputs to estimate trend VIX levels over time. With the ISM, consumer spending and unemployment data that we have in hand, our models would suggest baseline VIX levels of 19, not 14 and change. Reverse engineering our model we estimate that a 14 VIX is more consistent with an ISM new orders level above 60 (ISM high 50’s) given no change in consumer spending or the unemployment rate.



The U.S. options market may be expecting economic stabilization, or a lower likelihood of a December rate hike given an ISM at 50.1.

Volatility: Less room for error with ISM @ 50 and GDP is 1.5% rather than 3%

GDP is 1.5% and ISM at 50.1: In our 2015 Volatility Forecast (January 20, 2015), we showed that the FOMC has tended to hike rates when the economy is on solid footing. U.S. real GDP growth has been 3% or higher during the quarter of the initial hike and the ISM averaged 57.6 the month of the hike and a robust 57 one- to three-months after a hike over the last three rate cycles. While the VIX is already pricing in an ISM level in the high 50's and the FED has put a December hike back on the table, the economy is well below where we were at the beginning of past hikes. The advance number for real GDP was +1.5% in Q3 and the ISM stands at 50.1. That gives us a lot less cushion than in past cycles.

Implications: Modest U.S. and global growth may imply that U.S. market volatility (much like the FOMC) will be a lot more data dependent.

The economy and the FOMC reaction function will be the key into year-end. Our point is that the potential for volatility to swing higher seems more likely when we are (1) at low VIX levels, (2) the economy is mediocre, and (3) the market is navigating the ramifications of a potential December rate hike.

Bottom line: a VIX back at 2013-2014 levels seems low if a December rate hike really is in play. In terms of timing, it may be natural for volatility to take a breather after the intense market swings experienced in August-September, an earnings season, and three highly scrutinized central bank meetings (FOMC, ECB, BOJ). We would take advantage of lower option prices to implement direction views.

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Peter Schiff On QE's Creeping Communism: Washington Joins Tokyo On The Road To Leningrad
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/03/2015 - 19:15
So this is the endgame of QE: Exploding debt, financial distortion, prolonged stagnation, recurring recession, and the eventual government takeover of industry and the economy. This appears to be the preferred alternative of politicians and bankers who simply refuse to let the free markets function the way they are supposed to. If interest rates were never manipulated by central banks and QE had never been invented, the markets could have purged themselves years ago of the speculative bubbles and mal-investments. Sure we could have had a deeper recession, but it also could have been much shorter, and it could have been followed by a far more robust and sustainable recovery. Instead Washington has joined Tokyo on the road to Leningrad.


Bitcoin Soars To 14-Month Highs As Major Exchange Eases Access For Chinese
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/04/2015 - 00:00

Bitcoin, at $444, is now up over 100% since we suggested, in early September, it would become the conduit for Chinese capital outflows following China's crackdown on capital controls. This afternoon's sudden BIS-induced plunge, taking the virtual currency down $50, has been entirely retraced and more as BTCC (China's leading Bitcoin Exchange) announced it will now accept direct deposits (making it significantly easier for Chinese to rotate their Yuan deposits into the virtual currency and out of the potential clutches of capital controlling communists).



The Market Is Not The Economy
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/03/2015 - 22:10

After Q3's magic; Q4, we have a problem...



Hugh Hendry Says "Don't Panic"; Here Is Paul Singer Explaining Why You May Want To
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/03/2015 - 20:53

"The "bailout culture" often coincides with sustained weak growth because, among other consequences, successful companies have to compete with companies who are alive only because of cheap credit. Overcapacity and inefficient production are engendered by such policies, causing price and profit declines. Failure is an essential element of capitalism, and if failure is politically denied, the most effective, efficient and innovative solutions cannot "win" over the "living dead" who clutter markets and consumer baskets."

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Facebook reporta alza de su ganancia a pesar de mayores costos

Mark Zuckerberg, presidente ejecutivo de Facebook. ENLARGE
Mark Zuckerberg, presidente ejecutivo de Facebook. Photo: Bloomberg News

Por
Deepa Seetharaman
Actualizado Miércoles, 4 de Noviembre de 2015 17:00 EDT
Facebook Inc. reportó el miércoles un aumento de 11% en la ganancia del tercer trimestre, a pesar de gastar en gran medida en proyectos tan variados como inteligencia artificial, realidad virtual y la conexión a Internet en mercados emergentes.

Los ingresos subieron 41% a US$4.500 millones, frente a US$3.200 millones en el mismo período del año previo, gracias a que otras empresas gastaron más para hacer publicidad a través de la red social. Pero los costos y gastos totales se incrementaron a un ritmo más rápido de 68%

Los resultados reflejan el progreso que Facebook ha hecho para atraer dólares del sector publicitario, especialmente para los anuncios en vídeo. SocialCode, una compañía de tecnología de publicidad, dice que el gasto de sus clientes en anuncios de videos en Facebook se triplicó durante los primeros nueve meses de 2015 en comparación con el mismo período de 2014. RBC Capital Markets dice que 61% de los comerciantes encuestados en septiembre planean gastar más en Facebook el próximo año.

Las acciones de Facebook subieron 3,8%, a US$107,94, en operaciones posteriores al cierre de la jornada bursátil.

En el tercer trimestre, Facebook hizo más fácil que las empresas compraran anuncios en la aplicación para compartir fotos Instagram y llegar a sus 400 millones de usuarios. Ken Sena, analista de Evercore ISI, estima que para el cuarto trimestre, Instagram podría contribuir hasta con US$300 millones, o 5%, a los ingresos de Facebook.

Para el tercer trimestre, Facebook reportó una ganancia de US$896 millones, o 32 centavos por acción, frente a US$806 millones, o 30 centavos por acción, reportados hace un año. Los analistas esperaban que Facebook reportara una ganancia US$776,5 millones, o 27 centavos por acción, en el tercer trimestre, de acuerdo con datos compilados por S&P Capital IQ.

[admin]

El Reino Unido suspende vuelos desde resort egipcio por temor a terrorismo

Por
Nicholas Winning

Miércoles, 4 de Noviembre de 2015 13:08 EDT
LONDRES (EFE Dow Jones)—El Gobierno británico anunció la suspensión el miércoles de los vuelos desde Sharm el-Sheij en Egipto al Reino Unido por la información de que el avión ruso que se estrelló el sábado podría haber sido derribado por un “artefacto explosivo”.

El Airbus A321 operado por la aerolínea rusa Kogalymavia se estrelló en la Península del Sinaí egipcia, causando la muerte a sus 224 ocupantes.

En un comunicado, Downing Street dijo que aunque la investigación no ha concluido, no puede afirmar categóricamente que el aparato ruso tuvo un accidente. “Pero al salir a la luz más información, nos hemos preocupado por la posibilidad de que el avión pudiera haber sido derribado por un artefacto explosivo”, señaló.

En consecuencia, el Gobierno ha retrasado los vuelos procedentes del aeropuerto de Sharm el-Sheij y con destino al Reino Unido previstos para el miércoles como medida de precaución mientras un equipo británico de expertos en aviación valora las medidas de seguridad en el aeropuerto, tarea que se prevé completar el propio miércoles.

[Fenix]

US Trade Deficit Narrows 15%, Smallest Since Feb 2015 As Petroleum Imports Collapse
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/04/2015 - 08:38

Against expectations of a $41bn deficit, September's trade deficit was practically in line at -$40.8bn, dramatically narrower than the revised higher (less negative) August print of $48.02bn as petroleum imports plunge to lowest since May 2004. With the smallest deficit since Feb 2015, The Fed is going to need a bigger boat to have enough debt to monetize when the looming rate hike drags the economy to the point of requiring more intervention.



German Opposition Party Warns, Nation Is "At The Edge Of Anarchy, Sliding Towards Civil War"
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/04/2015 - 11:03

Bavarian official Peter Dreier called German Chancellor Angela Merkel to warn her personally of the consequences if Germany welcomes a million refugees, "because Germany now is somewhere at the edge of anarchy and sliding towards civil war, or to become a banana republic without any government. I hope that this threat will have some effect, but knowing the psychological things that Merkel does these days – I don’t believe in it, unfortunately."


The Last Two Times The US Jobs Market Was This Bifurcated, Things Ended Badly
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/04/2015 - 12:30

Welcome to the most bifurcated US jobs market ever... According to ISM, employment is best since 2005 for the Services 'economy' and the worst since 2009 for the Manufacturing 'economy'. The last two times the labor market was so divergent... did not end well.

[admin]

Yellen reitera que el alza de tasas está sobre la mesa para diciembre

Janet Yellen, presidenta del banco central de Estados Unidos, en una audiencia ante el congreso el 4 de noviembre. ENLARGE
Janet Yellen, presidenta del banco central de Estados Unidos, en una audiencia ante el congreso el 4 de noviembre. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Associated Press

Por
Ryan Tracy y Ben Leubsdorf

Actualizado Miércoles, 4 de Noviembre de 2015 12:48 EDT
WASHINGTON—La presidenta de la Reserva Federal, Janet Yellen, indicó el miércoles que el banco central estadounidense podría elevar las tasas de interés a corto plazo durante su reunión a mediados de diciembre, pero hizo énfasis en que aún no se ha tomado una decisión al respecto.

La Fed espera que “la economía continúe creciendo a un ritmo suficiente como para generar mejoras adicionales en el mercado laboral y regresar la iflación a la meta de 2% a mediano plazo, y si la información económica apoya esa expectativa, entonces nuestra declaración indica que diciembre sigue siendo una posibilidad viva”, dijo Yellen ante la Comisión de Servicios Financieros de la Cámara de Representantes de EE.UU. “Pero de forma importante, no hemos tomado una decisión al respecto”.

La Fed ha mantenido la tasa de fondos federales, una tasa de interés de referencia, cerca a cero desde diciembre de 2008.

Yellen dijo el miércoles que una decisión oportuna, “si los datos y las perspectivas justifican tal medida, es una ruta prudente porque vamos a ser capaces de movernos a un ritmo más gradual y mesurado. Tenemos plena confianza en que la economía va a evolucionar de tal manera que podamos avanzar a un ritmo muy gradual, y por supuesto, después de que lo hagamos, estaremos observando muy cuidadosamente si nuestras expectativas se concretan”.

El comité de política monetaria de la Fed decidió mantener las tasas cerca a cero en su reunión de mediados de septiembre, pero señaló en una declaración de finales de octubre que un aumento de las tasas era posible “en su próxima reunión” del 15 y 16 de diciembre.

Momentos antes, la presidenta del banco central estadounidense se había referido al estado de la supervisión de las instituciones financieras en el país norteamericano. La funcionaria señaló que aún ve “sustanciales problemas de cumplimiento de las normas y gestión del riesgo” en las principales instituciones financieras que la Fed regula, aunque evitó aludir a problemas concretos o añadir más temas a la agenda regulatoria del banco central.

Yellen agregó que aunque se han visto algunas pruebas de mejora de la gestión del riesgo, los controles internos y el gobierno en las mayores instituciones, “las fallas en el cumplimiento de las normas en los últimos años han reducido la confianza” y “podrían tener implicaciones para la estabilidad financiera”.

Yellen se refería a 16 grandes instituciones financieras, entre ellas los principales bancos y aseguradoras estadounidenses, supervisadas por un panel de la Fed.

Estos comentarios ponen de manifiesto que, a pesar de la puesta en marcha de nuevas normas y regulaciones desde la crisis financiera y los posteriores rescates financiados con dinero de los contribuyentes, Yellen y otros altos funcionarios de la Fed siguen sin estar satisfechos con los cambios que han visto en las grandes instituciones financieras estadounidenses.

Yellen está testificando ante el panel de la Cámara para hablar de la supervisión y regulación del sistema financiero de la Fed. La ley Dodd-Frank de 2010 pedía a la Casa Blanca designar a un vicepresidente para el papel de supervisión en la Fed y ordenó a este individuo declarar dos veces al año ante el panel financiera de la Cámara de Representantes y el Comité Bancario del Senado. Por razones que la Casa Blanca no ha revelado, el presidente Barack Obama no ha designado a nadie.

En su testimonio, Yellen delineó las medidas que la Fed ha adoptado para reforzar la supervisión del sistema financiero desde la crisis de 2008. La funcionaria argumentó que el trabajo de la Fed ha hecho que las firmas tengan una mayor capacidad de recuperación y que el sistema financiero sea más estable, y reiteró que el banco central está haciendo lo que puede para adaptar las reglas al grado de riesgo de firmas financieras de diferentes tamaños.

— Kate Davidson contribuyó a esta nota.

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FHFA Head Warns Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac May Need Another Taxpayer Bailout
11/04/2015 12:10 -0500
Submitted by Mike Krieger

Yesterday, we learned that Fannie Mae recently rolled out a new program known as “Home Ready,” which would allow borrowers to obtain a 3% downpayment mortgage with no minimum cash contribution.



Now we learn this.

From MarketWatch:

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are at risk of needing an injection of Treasury capital after the latter reported its first quarterly loss in four years, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency said Tuesday.



FHFA Director Mel Watt issued a statement following mortgage-finance company Freddie Mac’s $475 million third-quarter loss, its first quarterly loss in four years.



“Volatility in interest rates coupled with a capital buffer that will decline to zero in 2018 under the terms of the senior preferred stock purchase agreements with Treasury will likely make both Enterprises increasingly susceptible to the possibility of quarterly losses that could result in draws going forward,” Watt said.



Freddie Mac said its loss was driven by interest rate changes that soured the value of derivatives it holds.

You really can’t make this stuff up.

* * *

So now The GSEs may need another capital injection from The Treasury (or in other words, you, The US Taxpayer) in order that the least creditworthy can buy unaffordable homes at maximum (infinite) leverage... because it's fair.




Treasuries Turmoil As December Rate-Hike Odds Hit 60%
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/04/2015 - 14:21

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What Blackout Period? Corporate Buybacks "Are Above Last Year's Levels"
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/04/2015 - 14:14

It is not just shorts buying and insiders selling. One other, quite persistent force has reemerged and contrary to the speculation that corporations are currently in an stock repurchase blackout period, the reality is anything but.


It's Just Not Saudi Arabia's Year: First Oil Prices, Now This...
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/04/2015 - 13:50

When Saudi Arabia moved to Plaxico themselves last November by killing the petrodollar in an effort to bankrupt the US shale space and tighten the screws on Moscow, Riyadh set in motion a series of events that culminted in a 20% fiscal deficit and, most recently, an S&P downgrade. Now, the kingdom is not only running out of money, but water and food as well.


New Poll Shows 60% Of Americans Think Hillary Clinton Is Untrustworthy & Dishonest
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/04/2015 - 15:55

The real interesting part of the latest Quinnipiac University National Poll, is not the fact that 60% of Americans think Hillary Clinton is dishonest, but that 40% of Americans don’t.

[Fenix]

Yellen Says Negative Rates On The Table "If Outlook Worsened"
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/04/2015 15:53 -0500

As the market now diligently calculates the suddenly surging odds of a December rate hike, here's Yellen with a preview of what will happen once the rate hike cycle is aborted...

* YELLEN SAYS IF OUTLOOK WORSENED FED MIGHT WEIGH NEGATIVE RATES
* YELLEN SAYS NEGATIVE RATES COULD HELP ENCOURAGE BANKS TO LEND

... just as it was aborted in Japan in August of 2000 when the BOJ also decided to send a signal how much stronger the economy is by hiking 25 bps, only to cut 7 months later and to proceed to monetize not only all net Japanese debt issuance a decade later, but to hold half of all equity ETFs.

The good news:

* YELLEN SAYS SHE DOESN'T SEE NEED FOR NEGATIVE RATES NOW
* YELLEN SAYS FED SEES ECONOMY ON STEADY PATH OF IMPROVEMENT

Because when have the Fed's forecasts before ever been wrong.


Buffett Bloodbath: Kraft Heinz Laying Off 10% Of Workforce
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/04/2015 - 15:44

In a "difficult but necessary" decision, Kraft-Heinz will cut 2,600 jobs in the latest post-mega-merger "synergy" bloodbath. Thanks Warren.


Global Trade In Freefall: China Container Freight At Record Low; Rail Traffic Tumbles, Trucking Slows Down
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/04/2015 - 15:42

Trucks, Trains and now Ships: suddenly everything seems to be in freefall.


Muslim Man Warns Germans: "We Will Marry Your Daughters And Conquer You With Births"
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/04/2015 - 16:30

A week ago, we showed a video of what we hoped was not representative of the general sentiment among Germans towards the refugee crisis as two ladies suggested, "Every year 2-3 million arrive...it’s generally about foreign infiltration." Now we have the other side as the following video shows a muslim man threatening a German that "his daughter will wear a headscarf and marry a Muslim and that Germans stand no chance with their low birth rate," adding that muslims will will "conquer Europe not with weapons, but with birth rates."


After Topping $500, Bitcoin Is (Again) Plunging On Extreme Volume
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/04/2015 - 18:15

It appears a double in a week has prompted - just as we saw yesterday - some more profit-taking in Bitcoin as after topping $500 earlier today, the virtual currency has plunged (considerably more than yesterday) to $368 in late US trading as a high volume selling program was unleashed on the virtual currency.

[Fenix]

How The Global Debt Bubble Is Crushing Commodity Prices
11/04/2015 18:05 -0500
Submitted by Gail Tverberg

Why is the price of oil so low now? In fact, why are all commodity prices so low? I see the problem as being an affordability issue that has been hidden by a growing debt bubble. As this debt bubble has expanded, it has kept the sales prices of commodities up with the cost of extraction (Figure 1), even though wages have not been rising as fast as commodity prices since about the year 2000. Now many countries are cutting back on the rate of debt growth because debt/GDP ratios are becoming unreasonably high, and because the productivity of additional debt is falling.

If wages are stagnating, and debt is not growing very rapidly, the price of commodities tends to fall back to what is affordable by consumers. This is the problem we are experiencing now (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Author's illustration of problem we are now encountering.

Figure 1. Author’s illustration of problem we are now encountering.

I will explain the situation more fully in the form of a presentation. It can be downloaded in PDF form: Oops! The world economy depends on an energy-related debt bubble.

* * *

Let’s start with the first slide, after the title slide.
Slide 2

Slide 2

Growth is incredibly important to the economy (Slide 2). If the economy is growing, we keep needing to build more buildings, vehicles, and roads, leading to more jobs. Existing businesses find demand for their products rising. Because of this rising demand, profits of many businesses can be expected to rise over time, thanks to economies of scale.

Something that is not as obvious is that a growing economy enables much greater use of debt than would otherwise be the case. When an economy is growing, as illustrated by the ever-increasing sizes of circles, it is possible to “borrow from the future.” This act of borrowing gives consumers the ability to buy more things now than they would otherwise would be able to afford–more “demand” in the language of economists. Customers can thus afford cars and homes, and businesses can afford factories. Companies issuing stock can expect that price of shares will most likely rise in the future.

Without economic growth, it would be very hard to have the financial system that we have today, with its stable banks, insurance companies, and pension plans. The pattern of economic growth makes interest and dividend payments easier to make, and reduces the likelihood of debt default. It allows financial planners to set up savings plans for retirement, and gives people confidence that the system will “be there” when it is needed. Without economic growth, debt is more of a last resort–something that might land a person in debtors’ prison if things go wrong.
Slide 3

Slide 3

It should be obvious that the economic growth story cannot be true indefinitely. We would run short of resources, and population would grow too dense. Pollution, including CO2 pollution, would become an increasing problem.
Slide 4

Slide 4

The question without an obvious answer is “When does the endless economic growth story become untrue?” If we listen to the television, the answer would seem to be somewhere in the distant future, if a slowdown in economic growth happens at all.

Most of us who read financial newspapers are aware that more debt and lower interest rates are the types of stimulus provided to the economy, to try to help it grow faster. Our current “run up” in debt seems to have started about the time of World War II. This growing debt allows “demand” for goods like houses, cars, and factories to be higher. Because of this higher demand, commodity prices can be higher than they otherwise would be.

Thus, if debt is growing quickly enough, it allows the sales price of energy products and other commodities to stay as high as their cost of extraction. The problem is that debt/GDP ratios can’t rise endlessly. Once debt/GDP ratios stop rising quickly enough, commodity prices are likely to fall. In fact, the run-up in debt is a bubble, which is itself in danger of collapsing, because of too many debt defaults.
Slide 5

Slide 5

The economy is made up of many parts, including businesses and consumers. The consumers have a second role as well–many of them are workers, and thus get their wages from the system. Governments have many roles, including providing financial systems, building roads, and providing laws and regulations. The economy gradually grows and changes over time, as new businesses are added, and others leave, and as laws change. Consumers make their decisions based on available products in the marketplace and they amount they have to spend. Thus, the economy is a self-organized networked system–see my post Why Standard Economic Models Don’t Work–Our Economy is a Network.

One key feature of a self-organized networked system is that it tends to grow over time, as more energy becomes available. As its grows, it changes in ways that make it difficult to shrink back. For example, once cars became the predominant method of transportation, cities changed in ways that made it difficult to go back to using horses for transportation. There are now not enough horses available for this purpose, and there are no facilities for “parking” horses in cities when they are not needed. And, of course, we don’t have services in place for cleaning up the messes that horses leave.
Slide 6

Slide 6

When businesses start, they need capital. Very often they sell shares of stock, and they may get loans from banks. As companies grow and expand, they typically need to buy more land, buildings and equipment. Very often loans are used for this purpose.

As the economy grows, the amount of loans outstanding and the number of shares of stock outstanding tends to grow.
Slide 7

Slide 7

Businesses compete by trying to make goods and services more efficiently than the competition. Human labor tends to be expensive. For example, a sweater knit by hand by someone earning $10 per hour will be very expensive; a sweater knit on a machine will be much less expensive. If a company can add machines to leverage human labor, the workers using those machines become more productive. Wages rise, to reflect the greater productivity of workers, using the machines.

We often think of the technology behind the machines as being important, but technology is only part of the story. Machines reflecting the latest in technology are made using energy products (such as coal, diesel and electricity) and operated using energy products. Without the availability of affordable energy products, ideas for inventions would remain just that–simply ideas.

The other thing that is needed to make technology widely available is some form of financing–debt or equity financing. So a three-way partnership is needed for economic growth: (1) ideas for inventions, (2) inexpensive energy products and other resources to make them happen, and (3) some sort of financing (debt/equity) for the undertaking.

Workers play two roles in the economy; besides making products and services, they are also consumers. If their wages are rising fast enough, thanks to growing efficiency feeding back as higher wages, they can buy increasing amounts of goods and services. The whole system tends to grow. I think of this as the normal “growth pump” in the economy.

If the “worker” growth pump isn’t working well enough, it can be supplemented for a time by a “more debt” growth pump. This is why debt-based stimulus tends to work, at least for a while.
Slide 8

Slide 8

There are really two keys to economic growth–besides technology, which many people assume is primary. One key is the rising availability of cheap energy. When cheap energy is available, businesses find it affordable to add machines and equipment such as trucks to allow workers to be more productive, and thus start the economic growth cycle.

The other key is availability of debt, to finance the operation. Businesses use debt, in combination with equity financing, to add new plants and equipment. Customers find long-term debt helpful in financing big-ticket items such as homes and cars. Governments use debt for many purposes, including “stimulating the economy”–trying to get economic growth to speed up.
Slide 9

Slide 9

Slide 9 illustrates how workers play a key role in the economy. If businesses can create jobs with rising wages for workers, these workers can in turn use these rising wages to buy an increasing quantity of goods and services.

It is the ability of workers to afford goods like homes, cars, motorcycles, and boats that helps the economy to grow. It also helps to keep the price of commodities up, because making these goods uses commodities like iron, steel, copper, oil, and coal.
Slide 10

Slide 10

In the 1900 to 1998 period, the price of electricity production fell (shown by the falling purple, red, and green lines) as the production of electricity became more efficient. At the same time, the economy used an increasing quantity of electricity (shown by the rising black line). The reason that electricity use could grow was because electricity became more affordable. This allowed businesses to use more of it to leverage human labor. Consumers could use more electricity as well, so that they could finish tasks at home more quickly, such as washing clothes, leaving more time to work outside the home.
Slide 11

Slide 11

If we compare (1) the amount of energy consumed worldwide (all types added together) with (2) the world GDP in inflation-adjusted dollars, we find a very high correlation.
Slide 12

Slide 12

In Slide 12, GDP (represented by the top line on the chart–the sum of the red and the blue areas) was growing very slowly back in the 1820 to 1870 period, at less than 1% per year. This growth rate increased to a little under 2% a year in the 1870 to 1900 and 1900 to 1950 periods. The big spurt in growth of nearly 5% per year came in the 1950 to 1965 period. After that, the GDP growth rate has gradually slowed.

On Slide 12, the blue area represents the growth rate in energy products. We can calculate this, based on the amount of energy products used. Growth in energy usage (blue) tends to be close to the total GDP growth rate (sum of red and blue), suggesting that most economic growth comes from increased energy use. The red area, which corresponds to “efficiency/technology,” is calculated by subtraction. The period of time when the efficiency/technology portion was greatest was between 1975 and 1995. This was the period when we were making major changes in the automobile fleet to make cars more fuel efficient, and we were converting home heating to more fuel-efficient heating, not using oil.
Slide 13

Slide 13

If we look at economic growth rates and the growth in energy use over shorter periods, we see a similar pattern. The growth in GDP is a little higher than the growth in energy consumption, similar to the pattern we saw on Slide 12.

If we look carefully at Slide 13, we see that changes in the growth rate for energy (blue line) tends to happen first and is followed by changes in the GDP growth rate (red line). This pattern of energy changes occurring first suggests that growth in the use of energy is a cause of economic growth. It also suggests that lack of growth in the use of energy is a reason for world recessions. Recently, the rate of growth in the world’s consumption of energy has dropped (Slide 13), suggesting that the world economy is heading into a new recession.
Slide 14

Slide 14

There is nearly always an investment of time and resources, in order to make something happen–anything from the growing of food to the mining of coal. Very often, it takes more than one person to undertake the initial steps; there needs to be a way to pay the other investors. Another issue is the guarantee of payment for resources gathered from a distance.
Slide 15

Slide 15

We rarely think about how all-pervasive promises are. Many customs of early tribes seem to reflect informal rules regarding the sharing of goods and services, and penalties if these rules are not followed.

Now, financial promises have to some extent replaced informal customs. The thing that we sometimes forget is that the bonds companies offer for sale, and the stock that companies issue, have no value unless the company issuing the stock or bonds is actually successful. As a result, the many promises that are made are, in a sense, contingent promises: the bond will be repaid, if the company is still in business (or if the company is dissolved, if the amount received from the sale of assets is great enough). The future value of a company’s stock also depends on the success of the company.
Slide 16

Slide 16

Governments become an important part of the web of promises. Governments collect their assessments through taxes. As an economy grows, the amount of government services tends to increase, and taxes tend to increase.

The roles of governments and businesses vary somewhat depending on the type of economy of a country. In a sense, this type of variation is not important. It is the functioning of the overall networked system that is important.
Slide 17

Slide 17

There was a very large run up in US debt about the time of World War II, not just in the US, but also in the other countries involved in World War II.

Adding the debt for World War II helped pull the US out of the lingering effects of the Depression. Many women started working outside the home for the first time. There was a ramp-up of production, aimed especially at the war effort.
Slide 18 - From The United States' 65-Year Debt Bubble

Slide 18 – From The United States’ 65-Year Debt Bubble

What does a country do when a war is over? Send the soldiers back home again, without jobs, and the women who had been working to support the war effort back home again, also without jobs? This was a time period when non-government debt ramped up in the US. In fact, it seems to have ramped up elsewhere around the world as well. The new debt helped support many growing industries at the time–helping rebuild Europe, and helping build homes and cars for citizens in the US. As noted previously, both energy use and GDP soared during this time period.
Slide 19

Slide 19

I haven’t found very good records of debt going back very far, but what I can piece together suggests that the rate of debt growth (total debt, including both government and private debt) was similar to the rate of growth of GDP, up until about 1975. Then, debt began growing much more rapidly than GDP.
Slide 20

Slide 20

The big issue that led to a big increase in the need for debt in the early 1970s was an increase in the price of oil. Oil is the single largest source of source of energy. It is used in many important ways, including making food, transporting coal, and extracting metals. Thus, when the price of oil rises, so does the price of many other goods.

As we noted on Slides 11, 12, and 13, it is the growing quantity of energy consumption that is important in providing economic growth. The natural tendency with high energy prices is to cut back on energy-related consumption. Increasing debt, if it is at a sufficiently low interest rate, helps counteract this natural tendency toward less energy usage. For example, the availability of debt at a low interest makes it possible for more consumers to purchase big-ticket items like houses, cars, and motorcycles. These products indirectly lead to the growing consumption of energy products, because energy is used in making these big-ticket items and because they use energy in their continuing operation.
Slide 21

Slide 21

Many people have been concerned about what they call “peak oil”–the idea that oil supply would suddenly drop because we reach geological limits. I think that this is a backward analysis regarding how the system works. There is plenty of oil available, if only the price would rise high enough and stay high for long enough.

Much of this oil is non-conventional oil–oil that cannot be extracted using the inexpensive approaches we used in the early days of oil production. In some cases, non-conventional oil is so viscous it needs to be melted with steam, before it will flow freely. Some of the unconventional oil can only be extracted by “fracking.” Some of the unconventional oil is very deep under the ocean. Near Brazil, this oil is under a layer of salt. If prices would remain high enough, for long enough, we could get this oil out.

The problem is that in order to get this unconventional oil out, costs are higher. These higher costs are sometimes described as reflecting diminishing returns–more capital goods are needed, as are more resources and human labor, to produce additional barrels of oil. The situation is equivalent to the system of oil extraction becoming less and less efficient, because we need to add more steps to the operation, raising the cost of producing finished oil products. The higher price of oil products spills over to a higher cost for producing food, because oil is used in operating farm equipment and transporting food to market. The higher cost of oil also spills over to the cost of almost anything that is shipped long distance, because oil is used as a transportation fuel.

You will remember that increased efficiency is what makes an economy grow faster (Slide 7, also Slide 37). Diminishing returns is the opposite of increased efficiency, so it tends to push the economy toward contraction. We are running into many other forms of increased inefficiency. One such type of inefficiency involves adding devices to reduce pollution, for example in electricity production. Another type of inefficiency involves switching to higher-cost methods of generation, such as solar panels and offshore wind, to reduce pollution. No matter how beneficial these techniques may be from some perspectives, from the perspective of economic growth, they are a problem. They tend to make the economy grow more slowly, rather than faster.

The standard workaround for slow economic growth is more debt. If the interest rate is low enough and the length of the loan is long enough, consumers can “sort of” afford increasingly expensive cars and homes. Young people with barely adequate high school grades can “sort of” afford higher education. With cheap debt, businesses can afford to buy back company stock, making reported earnings per share rise–even though after the buy-back, the actual investment used to generate future earnings is lower. With sufficient cheap debt, shale companies can create models showing that even if their cash flow is negative at $100 per barrel oil prices ($2 out for $1 in) and even more negative at $50 per barrel ($4 out for $1 in), somehow, the companies will be profitable in the very long run.

The technique of adding more debt doesn’t fix the underlying problem of growing inefficiency, instead of growing efficiency. Instead, as more debt is added, the additional debt becomes increasingly unproductive. It mostly provides a temporary cover-up for economic growth problems, rather than fixing them.
Slide 22

Slide 22

A common belief has been that as we reach limits of a finite world, oil prices and perhaps other prices will spike. In my view, this is a wrong understanding of how things work.

What we have is a combination of rising costs of production for many kinds of goods at the same time that wages are not rising very quickly. This problem can be temporarily hidden by a rising amount of debt at ever-lower interest rates, but this is not a long-term solution.

We end up with a conflict between the prices businesses need and the prices that workers can afford. For a while, this conflict can be resolved by a spike in prices, as we experienced in the 2005-2008 period. These spikes tend to lead to recession, for reasons shown on the next slide. Recession tends to lead to lower prices again.
Slide 26

Slide 26

The image on Slide 26 shows an exaggeration to make clear the shift that takes place, if the price of oil spikes. When the price of one necessary part of consumers’ budgets increases–namely the food and gasoline segment–there is a problem. Debt payments already committed to, such as those on homes and automobiles, remain constant. Consumers find that they must cut back on discretionary spending–in other words, “Everything else,” shown in green. This tends to lead to recession.
Slide 27

Slide 27

If we look at oil prices since 2000, we see that the period is marked by steep rises and falls in oil prices. In Slides 27 – 29, we will see that changes in the price of oil tend to correspond to changes in debt availability and cost.

In 2008, oil prices rose to a peak in July, and then dropped precipitously to under $40 per barrel in December of the same year. Slide 27 shows that the United States began its program of Quantitative Easing (QE) in late 2008. This helped to lower interest rates, especially longer-term interest rates. China and a number of other countries also raised their debt levels during this period. We would expect greater debt and lower interest rates to increase demand for commodities, and thus raise their prices, and in fact, this is what happened between December 2008 and 2011.

The drop in prices in 2014 corresponds to the time that the US phased out its program of QE, and China cut back on debt availability. Here, the economy is encountering less cheap debt availability, and the impact is in the direction expected–a drop in prices.
Slide 28 - From The United States' 65-Year Debt Bubble

Slide 28 – From The United States’ 65-Year Debt Bubble

If we go back to the steep drop in oil prices in July 2008, we find that the timing of the drop in prices matches the timing when US non-governmental debt started falling. In my academic article, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis, I show that this drop in debt outstanding takes place for both mortgages and credit card debt.
Slide 29

Slide 29

The US government, as well as other governments around the world, responded by sharply increasing their debt levels. This increase in governmental debt (known as sovereign debt) is part of what helped oil and other commodity prices to rise again after 2008.
Slide 30

Slide 30

We often hear about the drop in oil prices, but the drop in prices is far more widespread. Nearly all commodities have dropped in price since 2011. Today’s commodity price levels are below the cost of production for many producers, for all of these types of commodities. In fact, for oil, there is hardly any country that can produce at today’s price level, even Saudi Arabia and Iraq, when needed tax levels by governments are considered as well.

Producers don’t go out of business immediately. Instead, they tend to “hold on” as best they can, deferring new investment and trying to generate as much cash flow as possible. Because most of them have no alternative way of making a living, they often continue producing, as best they can, even with low prices, deferring the day of bankruptcy as long as possible. Thus, the glut of supply doesn’t go away quickly. Instead, low prices tend to get worse, and low prices tend to persist for a very long period.
Slide 31

Slide 31

In 2008, we had an illustration of what can go wrong when the economy runs into too many headwinds. In that situation, the price of oil and other commodities dropped dramatically.

Now we have a somewhat different set of headwinds, but the impact is the same–the price of commodities has dropped dramatically. Wages are not rising much, so they are not providing the necessary uplift to the economy. Without wage growth, the only other approach to growing the economy is debt, but this reaches limits as well. See my post, Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.)

There is some evidence that the Great Depression in the 1930s involved the collapse of a debt bubble. It seems to me that it may very well have also involved wages that were falling in inflation-adjusted terms for a significant number of wage-earners. I say this, because farmers were moving to the city in the early 1900s, as mechanization led to lower prices for food and less need for farmers. I haven’t seen figures on incomes of farmers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were dropping as well, especially for the many farmers who couldn’t afford mechanization. Wages for those who wanted to work as laborers on farms were likely also dropping, since they now needed to compete with mechanization.

In many ways, the situation that led up to the Great Depression appears to be not too different from our situation today. In the early 1900s, many farmers were being displaced by changes to agriculture. Now, wages for many are depressed, as workers in developed economies increasingly compete with workers in historically low-wage countries. Additional mechanization of manufacturing also plays a role in reducing job opportunities.

If my conjecture is right, the Great Depression may have been caused by problems similar to what we are seeing today–wages that were too low for a large segment of the economy, thus reducing economic growth, and a temporary debt bubble that tended to cover up the wage problem. Once the debt bubble collapsed, demand for commodities of all types collapsed, and prices collapsed. This problem was very difficult to fix.
Slide 32

Slide 32

When we add more debt to the economy, users of debt-financing find that more of their future income goes toward repaying that debt, cutting off the ability to buy other goods. For example, a young person with a large balance of student loans is unlikely to be able to afford buying a house as well.

A way of somewhat mitigating the problem of too much income going toward debt repayment is lowering interest rates. In fact, in quite a few countries, the interest rates governments pay on debt are now negative.
Slide 33

Slide 33

If the cost of producing commodities continues to rise, but the price that consumers can afford to pay does not rise sufficiently, at some point there is a problem. Instead of continuing to rise, prices start to fall below their cost of production. This drop can be very sharp, as it was in 2008.

The falling price of commodities is the same situation we encountered in 2008 (Slide 27); it is the same situation we reached at the beginning of the Great Depression back in 1929. It seems to happen when wage growth is inadequate, and the debt level is not growing fast enough to hide the inadequate wage growth. This time around, we are also challenged by the cost of producing commodities rising, something that was not a problem at the time of the Great Depression.
Slide 34

Slide 34

If we think about the situation, having prices fall behind the cost of production is a disaster. We can’t get oil out of the ground, if prices are too low. Farmers can’t afford to grow food commercially, if prices remain too low.

Prices of assets such as the value of farmland, the value of oil held by leases, and the value of metal ores in mines will fall. Assets such as these secure many loans. If an oil company has a loan secured by the value of oil held by lease, and this value falls permanently, there is a significant chance that the oil company will default on the loan.

The usual belief is, “The cure for low prices is low prices.” In other words, the situation will fix itself. What really happens, though, is that everyone is so afraid of a big crash that all parties make extreme efforts to avoid a crash. In fact, there is evidence today that banks are “looking the other way,” rather than taking steps to cut off lending to shale drillers, when current operations are clearly unprofitable.

By the time the crash does come around, it is likely to be a huge one, affecting many segments of the economy at once. Oil exporters and exporters of other commodities will be especially affected. Some of them, such as Venezuela, Yemen, and even Iraq may collapse. Financial institutions are likely to find themselves burdened with many “underwater loans.” The usual technique of lowering interest rates to try to aid the economy doesn’t look like it would work this time, because rates are already so low. Governments are not in sufficiently good financial condition to be able to bail out all of the banks and others needing assistance. In fact, governments may fail. The fall of the former Soviet Union occurred when oil prices were low.

Once there are major debt defaults, lenders will want to wait to see that prices will stay consistently high for a period (say, two or three years) before extending credit again. Thus, even if commodity prices should bounce back in 2017, it is doubtful that producers will be able to find financing at a reasonable interest rate until, say, 2020. By that time, depletion will have taken its toll. It will be impossible to make up for the many years of low investment at that time. Production is likely to continue falling, even if prices do rise.

The indirect impact of low oil and other commodity prices is likely to be a collapse in our current debt bubble. This collapsing bubble may lead to the failures of banks and even governments. It seems quite possible that these indirect impacts will affect us most, even more than the direct loss of commodities. These impacts could come quite quickly–in the next few months, in some cases.
Slide 35

Slide 35

Stocks, bonds, pension programs, insurance programs, bank accounts, and many other things of a financial nature seem to be very “solid” things–things that we can expect to be here and grow, for many years to come. Yet these things, directly and indirectly, depend on the ability of our system to produce goods and services. If something goes terribly wrong, we may find that financial assets have little more value than the pieces of paper that represent them.
Slide 36

Slide 36

I won’t try to explain Slide 36 further.
Slide 37

Slide 37

Slide 37 illustrates the principle of increased efficiency. If a smaller amount of resources and human labor can be used to create a larger amount of end product, this is growing efficiency. If more and more resources and labor are used to produce a smaller amount of end product, this is growing inefficiency.

The other part of the story is that simply automating processes is not enough. Instead, the economy must also produce a sufficiently large number of jobs, and these jobs must pay high enough wages that the workers can afford to buy the output of the economy. It is really the health of the whole interconnected system that is important.
Slide 38

Slide 38

Our low price problems are here now. That is why we need very cheap non-polluting energy products now, in large quantity, if there is any chance of fixing the system. These energy products must work in today’s devices, so we aren’t faced with the cost and delay involved with changing to new devices, such as cars and trucks that use a different fuel than petroleum.
Slide 39

Slide 39

Regarding Slides 39 and 40, we are sitting on the edge, waiting to see what will happen next.

The US economy temporarily seems to be in somewhat of a bubble, now that it does not have QE, while several other countries still do. This bubble is related to a “flight to quality,” and leads to a higher dollar, relative to other currencies. It also leads to high stock market valuations. As a result, the US economy seems to be doing better than much of the rest of the world.

Slide 40



Regardless of how well the US economy seems to be doing, the underlying problems of rising costs of producing commodities and prices that lag below the cost of production are still present, making the situation unstable. Wages continue to lag behind as well. We should not be too surprised if the economy starts taking major downward steps in the next few months.

[Fenix]

There Are Now 293 Ounces Of Paper Gold For Every Ounce Of Physical As Comex Registered Gold Hits New Low
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/04/2015 17:42 -0500


Unlike Bitcoin, which has doubled in the past few weeks (as the predicted Chinese buying onslaught indeed materialized), it hasn't been a good week for spot gold prices which have tumbled from $1,180 to just over $1,100. While the reason for the selling is unknown, with recurring speculation that an imminent Fed rate hike will make holding gold even more unwelcome in real terms (if not in India where gold now pays interest on par with inflation), what we do know is that as of yesterday the total registered gold at the Comex had dropped to a fresh record low following another transfer of "registered" gold into "eligible."



This reduced overnight the total amount of eligible gold by a third to just over 151,000 ounces, or under 5 tons as the zoomed in chart below shows.



And since the gold open interest continues to rise modestly...



... this means that as of today, the gold "coverage" ratio, or the amount of paper claims for every ounce of physical, has just hit a new all time high of 293 ounces of paper per ounce of registered physical.



Curiously, the last time we observed a comparable surge in the Comex dilution ratio took place just two months ago when a comparable "adjustment" reduced JPM's "Registered" inventory by 122,124 ounces. Back then many said the adjustment would be promptly reversed.

Two months later not only has that not happened, but JPM is now down to just 10,777 ounces of Registered while many other vaults continue to see either outright withdrawals or comparable adjustments.

How much longer can this exponential surge in the dilution ratio continue? We don't know, although with less than 5 tons of registered gold left in the Comex vault system, we hope that the mystery of what is really going on at the Comex will finally be unveiled.



Have You Heard Of This Digital Currency That's A Total Scam?
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/04/2015 - 16:40

You don’t actually have any savings. When you make a deposit, you’re trading your money for a banker’s promise to repay you. And there are countless regulations giving them the authority to break that promise. (If you want to test this premise, try withdrawing $25,000 just to see how your bank reacts.) That’s the system that controls your wealth today. It’s almost entirely digital. And it’s run by unelected bureaucrats whose interests are not aligned with your own. This is not a free system. And any rational person should consider parking at least a rainy day fund outside of this system.

[Comodoro]

Los gráficos del día,
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[admin]

Yellen reitera que el alza de tasas está sobre la mesa para diciembre

Janet Yellen, presidenta del banco central de Estados Unidos, en una audiencia ante el congreso el 4 de noviembre. ENLARGE
Janet Yellen, presidenta del banco central de Estados Unidos, en una audiencia ante el congreso el 4 de noviembre. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Associated Press

Por
Ryan Tracy y Ben Leubsdorf

Actualizado Miércoles, 4 de Noviembre de 2015 12:48 EDT
WASHINGTON—La presidenta de la Reserva Federal, Janet Yellen, indicó el miércoles que el banco central estadounidense podría elevar las tasas de interés a corto plazo durante su reunión a mediados de diciembre, pero hizo énfasis en que aún no se ha tomado una decisión al respecto.

La Fed espera que “la economía continúe creciendo a un ritmo suficiente como para generar mejoras adicionales en el mercado laboral y regresar la iflación a la meta de 2% a mediano plazo, y si la información económica apoya esa expectativa, entonces nuestra declaración indica que diciembre sigue siendo una posibilidad viva”, dijo Yellen ante la Comisión de Servicios Financieros de la Cámara de Representantes de EE.UU. “Pero de forma importante, no hemos tomado una decisión al respecto”.

La Fed ha mantenido la tasa de fondos federales, una tasa de interés de referencia, cerca a cero desde diciembre de 2008.

Yellen dijo el miércoles que una decisión oportuna, “si los datos y las perspectivas justifican tal medida, es una ruta prudente porque vamos a ser capaces de movernos a un ritmo más gradual y mesurado. Tenemos plena confianza en que la economía va a evolucionar de tal manera que podamos avanzar a un ritmo muy gradual, y por supuesto, después de que lo hagamos, estaremos observando muy cuidadosamente si nuestras expectativas se concretan”.

El comité de política monetaria de la Fed decidió mantener las tasas cerca a cero en su reunión de mediados de septiembre, pero señaló en una declaración de finales de octubre que un aumento de las tasas era posible “en su próxima reunión” del 15 y 16 de diciembre.

Momentos antes, la presidenta del banco central estadounidense se había referido al estado de la supervisión de las instituciones financieras en el país norteamericano. La funcionaria señaló que aún ve “sustanciales problemas de cumplimiento de las normas y gestión del riesgo” en las principales instituciones financieras que la Fed regula, aunque evitó aludir a problemas concretos o añadir más temas a la agenda regulatoria del banco central.

Yellen agregó que aunque se han visto algunas pruebas de mejora de la gestión del riesgo, los controles internos y el gobierno en las mayores instituciones, “las fallas en el cumplimiento de las normas en los últimos años han reducido la confianza” y “podrían tener implicaciones para la estabilidad financiera”.

Yellen se refería a 16 grandes instituciones financieras, entre ellas los principales bancos y aseguradoras estadounidenses, supervisadas por un panel de la Fed.

Estos comentarios ponen de manifiesto que, a pesar de la puesta en marcha de nuevas normas y regulaciones desde la crisis financiera y los posteriores rescates financiados con dinero de los contribuyentes, Yellen y otros altos funcionarios de la Fed siguen sin estar satisfechos con los cambios que han visto en las grandes instituciones financieras estadounidenses.

Yellen está testificando ante el panel de la Cámara para hablar de la supervisión y regulación del sistema financiero de la Fed. La ley Dodd-Frank de 2010 pedía a la Casa Blanca designar a un vicepresidente para el papel de supervisión en la Fed y ordenó a este individuo declarar dos veces al año ante el panel financiera de la Cámara de Representantes y el Comité Bancario del Senado. Por razones que la Casa Blanca no ha revelado, el presidente Barack Obama no ha designado a nadie.

En su testimonio, Yellen delineó las medidas que la Fed ha adoptado para reforzar la supervisión del sistema financiero desde la crisis de 2008. La funcionaria argumentó que el trabajo de la Fed ha hecho que las firmas tengan una mayor capacidad de recuperación y que el sistema financiero sea más estable, y reiteró que el banco central está haciendo lo que puede para adaptar las reglas al grado de riesgo de firmas financieras de diferentes tamaños.

— Kate Davidson contribuyó a esta nota.

[admin]

Yellen reitera que el alza de tasas está sobre la mesa para diciembre

Janet Yellen, presidenta del banco central de Estados Unidos, en una audiencia ante el congreso el 4 de noviembre. ENLARGE
Janet Yellen, presidenta del banco central de Estados Unidos, en una audiencia ante el congreso el 4 de noviembre. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Associated Press

Por
Ryan Tracy y Ben Leubsdorf

Actualizado Miércoles, 4 de Noviembre de 2015 12:48 EDT
WASHINGTON—La presidenta de la Reserva Federal, Janet Yellen, indicó el miércoles que el banco central estadounidense podría elevar las tasas de interés a corto plazo durante su reunión a mediados de diciembre, pero hizo énfasis en que aún no se ha tomado una decisión al respecto.

La Fed espera que “la economía continúe creciendo a un ritmo suficiente como para generar mejoras adicionales en el mercado laboral y regresar la iflación a la meta de 2% a mediano plazo, y si la información económica apoya esa expectativa, entonces nuestra declaración indica que diciembre sigue siendo una posibilidad viva”, dijo Yellen ante la Comisión de Servicios Financieros de la Cámara de Representantes de EE.UU. “Pero de forma importante, no hemos tomado una decisión al respecto”.

La Fed ha mantenido la tasa de fondos federales, una tasa de interés de referencia, cerca a cero desde diciembre de 2008.

Yellen dijo el miércoles que una decisión oportuna, “si los datos y las perspectivas justifican tal medida, es una ruta prudente porque vamos a ser capaces de movernos a un ritmo más gradual y mesurado. Tenemos plena confianza en que la economía va a evolucionar de tal manera que podamos avanzar a un ritmo muy gradual, y por supuesto, después de que lo hagamos, estaremos observando muy cuidadosamente si nuestras expectativas se concretan”.

El comité de política monetaria de la Fed decidió mantener las tasas cerca a cero en su reunión de mediados de septiembre, pero señaló en una declaración de finales de octubre que un aumento de las tasas era posible “en su próxima reunión” del 15 y 16 de diciembre.

Momentos antes, la presidenta del banco central estadounidense se había referido al estado de la supervisión de las instituciones financieras en el país norteamericano. La funcionaria señaló que aún ve “sustanciales problemas de cumplimiento de las normas y gestión del riesgo” en las principales instituciones financieras que la Fed regula, aunque evitó aludir a problemas concretos o añadir más temas a la agenda regulatoria del banco central.

Yellen agregó que aunque se han visto algunas pruebas de mejora de la gestión del riesgo, los controles internos y el gobierno en las mayores instituciones, “las fallas en el cumplimiento de las normas en los últimos años han reducido la confianza” y “podrían tener implicaciones para la estabilidad financiera”.

Yellen se refería a 16 grandes instituciones financieras, entre ellas los principales bancos y aseguradoras estadounidenses, supervisadas por un panel de la Fed.

Estos comentarios ponen de manifiesto que, a pesar de la puesta en marcha de nuevas normas y regulaciones desde la crisis financiera y los posteriores rescates financiados con dinero de los contribuyentes, Yellen y otros altos funcionarios de la Fed siguen sin estar satisfechos con los cambios que han visto en las grandes instituciones financieras estadounidenses.

Yellen está testificando ante el panel de la Cámara para hablar de la supervisión y regulación del sistema financiero de la Fed. La ley Dodd-Frank de 2010 pedía a la Casa Blanca designar a un vicepresidente para el papel de supervisión en la Fed y ordenó a este individuo declarar dos veces al año ante el panel financiera de la Cámara de Representantes y el Comité Bancario del Senado. Por razones que la Casa Blanca no ha revelado, el presidente Barack Obama no ha designado a nadie.

En su testimonio, Yellen delineó las medidas que la Fed ha adoptado para reforzar la supervisión del sistema financiero desde la crisis de 2008. La funcionaria argumentó que el trabajo de la Fed ha hecho que las firmas tengan una mayor capacidad de recuperación y que el sistema financiero sea más estable, y reiteró que el banco central está haciendo lo que puede para adaptar las reglas al grado de riesgo de firmas financieras de diferentes tamaños.

— Kate Davidson contribuyó a esta nota.