Lunes 16/11/15 La manufactura en New York

[Fenix]

Hablando de divergencias

José Luis Martínez Campuzano de Citi
Lunes, 16 de Noviembre del 2015 - 14:38:00

Miren estos dos gráficos…

Por un lado, las divergencias que se observan en el descuento de tipos de interés a futuro de las curvas actuales….. Por otro, el momento económico de las principales economías….. La pregunta es clara: ¿quién tiene la razón?.

Especialmente entre la Fed y el ECB, con mensajes divergentes que se reflejan, como no podía ser de otra forma, en las expectativas que maneja el mercado. El viernes pasado ya conocimos el crecimiento de la economía europea (0.3 % y 1.6 % trimestral y anual), no lejos en el crecimeinto anualizado de la economía norteamericana. Claro, también se puede afirmar que la economía europea está iniciando la fase alcista del ciclo cuando la economía norteamericana estaría en ya muy maduro.

Divergencias en política monetaria y, como ven, no tanto en ritmos de crecimiento entre las tres principales economías mundiales. Pero, hay otra divergencia casi tan relevante como la de políticas monetarias: me refiero a la divergencia en el crecimiento y finanzas a nivel mundial. Aquí ya hablamos de las economías emergentes. Exceso de capacidad, exceso de deuda y riesgo de desinflación. Aunque la Fed no lo reconozca abiertamente, la decisión de subir tipos de interés en el pasado ha sido compatible con un escenario de fuerte crecimiento mundial y maduro ciclo del crédito a nivel mundial. ¿Se da el caso en estos momentos? Podemos debatir sobre el crédito, pero creo que todos estaremos de acuerdo en la debilidad del crecimiento mundial. Débil y desigual, como diría la Directora Gerente del FMI.


¿Conclusión de todo lo anterior? A efecto de un inversor financiero, tendrá que tener una mayor tolerancia al riesgo que en el pasado. Y con potenciales rentabilidades más bajas.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

14:52 Divisas: "En rango hasta diciembre"
Bankinter
Eurodólar (€/$).- El Euro consiguió fortalecerse durante la semana pasada después de cuatro de caídas. Esta semana el cruce seguirá las distintas declaraciones (Tarullo, Dudley, Draghi, Bullard) y la macro (ZEW, Prod. Ind) pero es probable que consolide niveles antes de romper el 1,07 a la baja de nuevo. Rango estimado semanal: 1,07-1,088.

[Fenix]

Stocks Jump On Hope For More Central Bank Intervention After Japan's Quintuple Recession, Syrian Strikes
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/16/2015 - 07:03

As so often happens in these upside down days, was the best thing that could happen to the market, because another economic slowdown means the BOJ, even without sellers of JGBs, will have no choice but to expand its "stimulus" program (the same one that led Japan to its current predicament of course) and buy up if not government bonds, then corporate bonds, more ETFs (of which it already own 50%) and ultimately stocks. Because there is nothing better for the richest asset owners than total economic collapse.


Oil Weakness Accelerates, Slams OPEC Export Price Below $40 For First Time Since Feb 2009
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/16/2015 - 10:16

Overnight saw a significant ramp higher in crude prices as, presumably, the Paris attacks sparked further Mid-East tension fears and increased the war premium (as Japanese economic growth raises more demand conccerns). But that has all gone now as WTI Crude nears a $39 handle once again and, for the first time since February 2009, OPEC Oil Basket price has traded with a $39 handle.

[Fenix]

Rich Nation Problems: Even If Norway Wanted To Do QE, They Couldn't
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/16/2015 - 10:10

"My guess is that we will have negative rates in Norway before there will be any talk of QE"...

[Fenix]

Saudis Planning For A War Of Attrition In Europe With Russia's Oil Industry
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/16/2015 - 13:05

Russia’s central bank recently warned about the growing financial risks to the Russian economy from Saudi Arabia encroaching upon its traditional export market for crude oil. Russia sends 70 percent of its oil to Europe, but Saudi Arabia has been making inroads in the European market amid the oil price downturn. The result is a heavier discount for Russia’s crude oil, the so-called Urals blend. Russian officials have accused Saudi Arabia of “dumping” its oil in Europe, a move that Rosneft chief Igor Sechin said would “backfire.”


DoubleLine's Gundlach Warns "These Markets Are Falling Apart"
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/16/2015 - 12:40

The odds of a December rate hike have slipped in recent days from over 70% intraday to 64.0% today as, while economists remain convinced that rates will rise in December, traders appear a little less confident. One of the most outspoken - having doubted The Fed (and questioned the economy's ability to handle even a 25bps rate hike) since Spring - DoubleLine Capital co-founder Jeffrey Gundlach said on Sunday that the Fed may hesitate to raise rates given rocky economic and financial conditions making it clear, as Reuters reports, "certainly [a Fed] No-Go is more likely than most people think.

[Fenix]

ECB's Coeure Sees "Little Bubbles"
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/16/2015 - 11:58

It would appear The ECB has undertaken the same baffle'em with bullshit meme the rest of the world's central planners have embraced. Speaking this morning (this time not to a private hedge fund group), The ECB's Benoit Coeure stated unequivocally that "The ECB doesn't see overvalued asset prices." Well that's nice, apart from the -38bps yield on German 2Y notes. But then... to lull investors from their stupor, Coeure unleashed, "The ECB does see "little bubbles" in some markets." Which ones we can only wonder as they prepare to buy Muni bonds...



The Next Chicago? Houston Faces Pension Crisis In Latest Example Of Local Government Fiscal Folly
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/16/2015 - 14:00

“If they end up doing nothing to address this budget issue ... Houston could be facing the same problem Chicago is now."



Black Market For Black Gold Ignites As Jobless Roughnecks Resort To Oil Theft
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/16/2015 - 14:20

The allure of ill-gotten oil money remains strong. The lull in drilling has given oil companies more time to scrutinize their operations -- and their losses. As Bloomberg reports, during booms "they are moving at such a rapid pace there’s not a lot of auditing and inventorying going on," said Gary Painter, sheriff in Midland County, Texas, in the oil-rich Permian Basin; but "whenever it slows down, they start looking for stuff and find out it never got delivered or it got delivered and it’s gone." From raw crude sucked from wells to expensive machinery that disappears out the back door, drillers from Texas to Colorado are struggling to stop theft that has only worsened amid tens of thousands of lost roughneck jobs.


The Last Time Bond Bears Were This Short, Treasury Yields Collapsed
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/16/2015 - 11:00

Bond traders have not been this speculatively short Treasuries since early 2010. Since The Fed turned uber hawkish at the last FOMC, and convinced the market that it will raise rates in December - despite dismally dropping data everywhere, speculators have drastically increased their short positions across the entire Treasury spectrum. The last time the world was this short Treasuries, the 10Y yield collapsed from 3.94% to 2.39% in just 3 months. Simply put, The Fed has created - through its constant communication and confusion - the biggest bear trap for bond traders... if a hike does not come in December, 2010's yield collapse could look like a stroll in the park, especially in the newly illiquid normal.

[Fenix]

VIX Again - That Is All
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/16/2015 14:24 -0500

VIX must be crushed to levitate stocks because the terrorists can't be allowed to win.



The Fed Will Raise Rates Only Insofar As They Are Irrelevant
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/16/2015 - 15:50

If the Fed raises the short-term interest rates next month, it will do so only as a token. And it will continue doing so only as long as it has no negative effect on asset prices. Higher rates, in other words, will only happen as long as – and only insofar as – they are irrelevant. Should higher rates begin to do the work of tightening credit, as they are supposed to, the Fed will back off and fly to the aid of Wall Street and fellow bankers coast to coast. They have rigged the system to function on fraudulently low interest rates; now the fraud has gotten into its bones. The economy – especially the Wall Street economy – depends on cheap money. It will fall in a heap without it.


Chuck Norris: World War III Started Last Friday In Paris
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/16/2015 - 16:50

Walker Texas Ranger has a history lesson for you: The murder sprees in Paris may go down in history like the Nazis’ invasion of Poland on Sept. 1, 1939, as the spark that lit the fuse for a wider European involvement in World War II. The impact of ISIS in Syria and Iraq is comparable to Hitler’s annexation of Czechoslovakia and Austria, which caused great concern and condemnation but not greater European revolt."