Martes 17/11/15 inflación producción industrial

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Sostenibilidad de la deuda

Martes, 17 de Noviembre del 2015 - 12:00:00

El apalancamiento. El exceso de apalancamiento: esta sigue siendo la raíz de la Crisis actual. En China el viernes pasado se decidió reducir el apalancamiento en bolsa; bueno para salud del mercado a medio plazo; no tanto para la liquidez a corto plazo. Pero, el caso de China, inquietante sin duda, sigue siendo limitado cuando lo vemos en términos de los países desarrollados. Me refiero, claro, a la deuda. Entre dos y tres veces el producto ya es habitual para contemplar la deuda privada y pública en los países desarrollados. ¿Y esto cómo se paga? ¿quién lo hará?.

Crecimiento, inflación, tiempo.....¿reestructuraciones?; dejemos estas opciones en el aire, aunque creo que en algún momento habrá que hablar de ellas. Y en algunos países, como sería el caso de Grecia, antes que tarde.

Me ha llamado la atención un reciente estudio del Banco de España que analiza la relación entre la política monetaria y la deuda. Naturalmente, dentro de los países desarrollados. Y marcando diferencias entre antes y después de 2012; antes, con los países anglosajones y Japón beneficiándose de la política monetaria expansiva (tradicional y no tanto) de sus bancos centrales mientras que en el caso de los países europeos era más bien por políticas fiscales restrictivas y monetarias no demasiado expansivas; después de 2012, el ECB se ha puesto a la altura del resto.

En teoría, siempre en teoría, una política monetaria expansiva llevada a extremo facilita y garantiza la sostenibilidad de la deuda (en moneda local) pero puede entrar en contradicción con el objetivo último de estabilizar los precios. Ya saben que la inflación es un fenómeno monetario. Con todo, siempre podremos matizar esta relación de coste/beneficio:

1. Dependerá de la credibilidad inflacionista....a mayor credibilidad de partida, menor riesgo de que una política monetaria expansiva temporal pueda generar expectativas de inflación

2. El mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria...al final, el canal de crédito puede no funcionar de forma correcta debido a la debilidad del sector financiero, al propio desapalancamiento de la economía y hasta por la propia incertidumbre a futuro


3. El slack económico...que reduce el riesgo de impacto en los precios derivada de una política monetaria expansiva

La inflación reduce el valor nominal de la deuda. Y con expectativas de inflación al alza, lo normal es que veamos tipos de interés al alza que hacen más costosa la financiación. En este punto es donde entra el banco central. En condiciones normales, como refleja el estudio del BOS, los beneficios derivados de los ajustes de deuda con inflación son más que compensados a medio plazo con los costes asumidos: tipos de interés al alza y pérdida de credibilidad, tanto en términos de tipo de cambio como de deudor. Esto explica la demanda de tipos de interés más elevados y financiación en moneda diferente.

¿No les descubre nada todo lo anterior? Bueno, al final supone reafirmar los riesgos a medio plazo de una política monetaria expansiva excepcional que se ha convertido en una norma. Y también explica el porqué de algunos bancos centrales, como sería el caso de la Fed, que cada vez encuentran menos argumentos domésticos para mantener este tipo de políticas. Es cierto: el objetivo de estabilidad de la inflación hay que verlo tanto al alza como a la baja, poniendo las condiciones en este último caso para que no la desinflación no acabe en deflación. Pero, ¿podríamos estar hablando del riesgo de deflación en caso de un comportamiento estable de los precios exteriores?. Al final, ¿hasta qué punto los temores de deflación se han sobrevalorado en países como Estados Unidos?.

Sí, la Fed tiene una reto muy complicado para tomar una decisión a mediados del próximo mes de diciembre: subir los tipos sin que afecte a la estabilidad financiera. Y me temo que, haga lo que haga, finalmente será cuestionado.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

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13:23 ¿Cómo ha transcurrido la temporada de resultados en Wall Street?
Con 462 compañías publicadas (92,4% del total), el BPA medio ajustado arroja una caída de -2,52% vs -6,9% estimado para el total del S&P 500 antes del inicio de publicación de resultados. El 70,1% han batido estimaciones, el 8% no ha ofrecido sorpresas con resultados en línea con las expectativas y el 22,9% han decepcionado.

Bankinter señala que en lo que se refiere a los resultados empresariales americanos (S&P500), hasta ahora su evolución trimestral en 2015 ha sido la siguiente: BPA 1T +1,6%; BPA 2T -0,5%; BPA 3T (provisional) -2,52%. La estimación para el 4T apunta a que la tendencia negativa va a continuar (BPA 4T´15 e: -2,4% a/a). No obstante, tradicionalmente siempre se han batido las estimaciones lo que nos invita a pensar que los datos reales se situarán en terreno positivo (¿+1%/+2%?).

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13:45 S&P 500: Se ha activado un ajuste o fase correctiva
Con la pérdida de importantes soportes la semana pasada, se ha activado un ajuste o fase correctiva del tramo alcista 2117-1867. Por tanto, en el corto plazo esperamos más caídas hacia 1990, y 1960 respectivamente, o lo que es lo mismo 50-62% Fibo. Al mismo tiempo, sólo recomendaríamos posicionamientos largos cuando el movimiento esté más avanzado, lo que puede llevar entre 1-2 semanas.

Escenario Alternativo: La superación de 2117 reanudaría la tendencia principal alcista.capital bolsa

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¿Subir o no subir los tipos de interés?

M&G Valores
Martes, 17 de Noviembre del 2015 - 14:27:00

En EEUU sigue existiendo un fuerte debate sobre la conveniencia o no de empezar a subir los tipos de interés. El argumento a favor sería que con una tasa de paro en el 5,1% se ha eliminado el exceso de recursos sin utilizar por lo que ya no se justificaría mantener los tipos de interés reales negativos porque suponen un riesgo a la estabilidad financiera.

Con la economía creciendo desde hace seis años unas subidas de tipos graduales y modestas no deberían traducirse en una disminución de la inversión y en cambio mejoraría la situación del sector financiero favoreciendo una asignación de los recursos más razonable.

Los partidarios de no subir los tipos argumentan que con la inflación muy por debajo del objetivo del 2% y la economía creciendo por debajo de su potencial a largo plazo, subir tipos ahora podría provocar un frenazo e incluso una nueva recesión.

¿Quién tiene razón? Ya que los economistas más prestigiosos no se ponen de acuerdo en el asunto tendrá que ser Yanet Yellen y el resto de miembros del FOMC quienes tomen la decisión. No lo tienen fácil aunque parecen inclinarse por empezar a subirlos ya transmitiendo un mensaje de que posteriores subidas serán muy graduales y siempre dependiendo de la evolución de la economía.


Un factor que apunta a un ciclo de subidas bastante modesto es el bajo nivel de las rentabilidades a largo plazo, actualmente en el entorno del 2,30%. Normalmente las subidas de tipos de la Fed se trasladan a todos los plazos de la curva en mayor o menor intensidad. En el ciclo de 2004-2006, sin embargo, los tipos largos apenas subieron.

Veremos que sucede en esta ocasión pero en ausencia de un repunte significativo de los tipos de largo plazo la Fed apenas tiene margen de subida hasta el 2%. Un escenario de “normalización financiera” consistente con un crecimiento sostenible de la economía implicaría una tasa de los Fed Funds sobre el 2% y la rentabilidad a 10 años sobre el 4%. Mientras los bonos se mantengan cerca del 2% seguimos en lo que Greenspan calificó de “connundrum” por lo inexplicable de unas rentabilidades tan bajas.

[Fenix]

El futuro será mejor (también en Japón)

Martes, 17 de Noviembre del 2015 - 14:56:00

¿No eran dos trimestres consecutivos de caídas sinónimo de recesión? Pero esto es desde una perspectiva técnica. Ayer conocíamos que el producto ha caído en Japón durante el Q3 un 0.2 % trimestral y un 0.8 % en cifra anualizada. Fue un dato algo peor de lo esperado, que sigue a un recorte similar durante el trimestre anterior. Interesante valorar su desglose. En definitiva…

¿Mal dato? Un portavoz del FMI preguntado ayer mismo sugería que el titular es peor que su desglose. Y es cierto. En definitiva, la mayor contribución al descenso del producto el trimestre pasado fueron los inventarios con un descenso del 1.3 % cuando el consumo ha crecido un 0.2 %. Con todo, es cierto que la inversión empresarial acumula ya dos trimestres en negativo, con un descenso durante el Q3 del 1.3 %. La inversión residencial por el contrario con subida del 1.9 % tras un repunte del 2.4 % durante el Q2. Una cosa más: la aportación del sector exterior ha sido ligeramente positiva en el Q3 tras dos trimestres de drenar crecimiento.

En cifra anual se mantiene el crecimiento del 1.0 %, con aportación de la demanda doméstica de 0.8 puntos y de 0.2 puntos desde la demanda internacional. No es mucho, es cierto, pero suficiente para que las autoridades japonesas, comenzando por el BOJ, sigan manteniendo el optimismo a futuro de una recuperación sostenida. Con todo, no me parece realmente suficiente para lograrlo.

¿Es la inversión? Resulta llamativo su débil comportamiento con las expectativas de recuperación que planteaban las compañías japonesas en las encuestas como el Tankan. ¿Qué está fallando? Es posible que hayan retrasado planes debido a la acentuación de la Crisis mundial y especialmente por la incertidumbre en China desde el verano. Todo apunta a que se podría mantener el tono de debilidad en la recuperación de la inversión empresarial en la parte final de año. Aunque sí esperamos que la economía recupere un ritmo de crecimiento del 0.5/0.8 % en el Q4. La recomposición de inventarios ayudará sin duda.


Debo reconocer que me sentí algo frustrado cuando el BOJ rechazó nuevas medidas expansivas a finales del mes pasado. Pero también entiendo que puede pretender encuadrar esta decisión con nuevas medidas expansivas, en este caso fiscales, quizás tan pronto como a final de año. Nuestros economistas esperan que el Gobierno habilite un nuevo presupuesto extra por una cifra de entre 3-4 tr. JPY (0.6 % del PIB), aunque no veo probable que por el momento aplique un recorte de impuestos a las empresas como se está debatiendo en algunos medios. Para 2017 el Gobierno planea un tipo efectivo para las empresas por debajo del 30 % (casi 10 puntos por encima ahora…uno de los mayores a nivel mundial).

¿Qué impacto puede tener el presupuesto extra? Siguiendo con los rumores, se alude a ayudas para el sector agrícola, gasto en prevención de desastres naturales y apoyo a la tercera edad y niños. Quizás la mitad del nuevo presupuesto se podría destinar a nuevo empleo público, con un impacto directo en el crecimiento de 0.3 puntos.

¿Cuál es nuestra previsión? Esperamos que la economía japonesa crezca un 1.1 % en 2016, mejorando la previsión para este año de apenas medio punto en promedio. Pero, sin medidas adicionales (fiscales y monetarias), recortamos la previsión de crecimiento para 2017 hasta niveles de 0.5/0.6 %. Al final, seguimos viendo más que probable que el BOJ habilite nuevas medidas monetarias expansivas adicionales al presupuesto fiscal extra que antes mencionaba.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

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Dennis Gartman No Longer Bearish; Is Shocked That Terrorism Is Bullish, Covers Shorts
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/17/2015 - 09:37

"Apparently terrorist attacks are supportive of stocks… apparently! We have been wrong in times past, and we have been wrong badly before, but we cannot recall every having been as wrong as we were yesterday for we were certain that terrorism is a bad thing for equity investment... We were clearly and obviously wrong, and when wrong the only possible action to take is to get less wrong; to cover that which had been done and to retreat to the sidelines." - Dennis Gartman


Thanks Janet - The Cost Of 'Renting' In America Is Rising At Its Fastest Pace In 8 Years
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/17/2015 - 08:58

The cost of 'living' in America in anything but a cardboard box under an overpass is rising at its fastest rate in 8 years. Both overall "shelter" and "rent" inflation are running at their hottest pace of the 'recovery'... and this is happening as wage growth remains stagnant despite the promises that any minute now it will rise. Well done Janet...

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Goldman Closes Out Its Top Trade For 2015 Which Expires Out Of The Money
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/17/2015 - 10:16

"Today we close our last remaining Top Trade recommendation to be short EUR/$ via a 1.00 – 0.95 put spread (initially struck at 1.20-1.15 with spot at 1.25), which expires out of the money incurring a loss of premium."


Beware Buying Crude: Oil Storage Is "Increasingly Full"
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/17/2015 - 09:56

If you follow geopolitics and the oil market (and really, you can’t follow the latter without following the former) you might be wondering whether the tragedy that took place in Paris last Friday may be enough to override the fundamentals for a while. As it turns out, even the start of a global conflict may not be enough to spark a sustained upturn when only around 47-m bbls of available ex-US commercial storage

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Recent Market Action Summarized In Four Words: "Institutions Selling, Retail Buying"
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/17/2015 - 13:09

According to Bank of America, the smart money is taking advantage of this latest rebound in stocks to sell to who else: the traditionally biggest sucker in the room - retail investors.


Future Of Brazil's Oil Industry In Serious Doubt
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/17/2015 - 12:48

Brazil is expected to increase oil production by 180,000 barrels per day in 2015, hitting 3.04 million barrels per day (mb/d). But 2016 is a different story. Petrobras has been embroiled in a corruption scandal since last year, which has cost the company tens of billions of dollars. Given that Petrobras was already the most indebted oil company in the world, major cut backs in spending were in order. OPEC sees Brazilian oil production plateauing as soon as next year. That is a pretty significant development considering the fact that, not too long ago, Petrobras thought output would continue rising rapidly through the rest of the decade.




Gold Tumbles For 14th Of Last 15 Days To Lowest Since Feb 2010
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/17/2015 - 12:39

The precious metal pummeling continues... Which is odd given the near-record physical demand...

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Refugee Blowback: More Than Half Of America's Governors Oppose Entry Of Syrians
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/17/2015 - 12:18

First it was Texas. Then five other states - Louisiana, Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, and Michigan - followed in refusing to admit any Syrian refugees. It has since became an avalanche, and at last check, at least 27 states - represented by more than half the nation's governors - say they oppose letting Syrian refugees into their states.

Buyout Bubble Bursts As Banks Pull Carlyle's 'Biggest LBO Of The Year' Bond Deal Amid Soaring Costs
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/17/2015 - 12:10

Ten years after Symantec paid $13.5bn for Veritas, Carlyle Group agreed in August to buy the data-storage business for just $8 billion (the biggest LBO of the year). Of course, the buyout deal made sense when the cost of funding was negligible and The Fed had your back but, as Bloomberg reports, amid soaring borrowing costs, banks have pulled the $5.5 billion debt offering for Veritas signaling a clear end to the reach-for-yield, nothing is a problem, bond market's risk appetite.. and if 'growthy' deals like this are being killed, what does that say for distressed bets on Energy M&A deals?

The Nasdaq's Ever-Mounting Internal House Of Cards
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/17/2015 - 11:51

Once again, the expected outcome of the most recent wave of deterioration in market internals will likely depend on one’s view of the current market regime. Are we in an environment that can continue to largely dismiss these breadth warnings, ala the late 1990?s? Or are stocks fated to eventually succumb to the weakening internal foundation as in the post-2000 period?

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Worst Economic Impact Still To Come, Fed's Fischer Warns As Dollar Soars To 12-Year Highs
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/17/2015 11:28 -0500

The Trade-Weighted US Dollar has risen almost 19% over the past 18 months - the fastest pace of increase on record - and is now at its highest level since 2003. As we noted previously, this is not unequivocally good for American corporate profits... and if you believe The Fed's Stan Fischer - the worst effects of this soaring exchange rate are yet to come... Most of the impact of exchange rate moves come after that first year. So we’re only just getting into the business end of the impact of the dollar’s strength on the US economy. And the Fed are about to hike?



As BlondeMoney's Helen Thomas noted recently, take the recent speech from Stan Fischer on ‘The Transmission of Exchange Rate Changes to Output and Inflation‘.

For a 10% appreciation in the US dollar:

‘The staff’s model indicates that the direct effects on GDP through net exports are large, with GDP falling over 1-1/2 percent below baseline after three years. Moreover, the effects materialize quite gradually, with over half of the adverse effects on GDP occurring at a horizon of more than a year.’

Here’s the impact on net exports:

dollar appreciation effect on net exports


Doesn’t look good, does it? Most of the impact comes after that first year. So we’re only just getting into the business end of the impact of the dollar’s strength on the US economy. And the Fed are about to hike?

Check out his conclusion:

“To wrap up, while the dollar’s appreciation and foreign weakness have been a sizable shock, the U.S. economy appears to be weathering them reasonably well, notwithstanding their large effects on certain sectors of the economy heavily exposed to international trade. Monetary policy has played a key role in achieving these outcomes through deferring liftoff relative to what was expected a little over a year ago”

So his argument now is that they’ve been dovish enough because they have already postponed their first hike, even as now it’s just around the corner. This is insane monetary policy. They’ll tell you about the easing after it’s happened!!


So who gets hurt the most?

As Deutsche Bank details,

A stronger dollar, the reset in oil prices to significantly lower levels and slower global growth and investment spending vs. last cycle will challenge many of the S&P’s commodity and industrial capital goods producers for a long time. We’ve been under-weight Energy, Materials and Industrials since last year on these reasons and expect these sectors to underperform in 2015, 2016 and perhaps longer. Unless lower stock prices offer a more attractive entry point.


We remain concerned about the risk to EPS growth at many S&P industries with high foreign profits owing to FX translation from a stronger dollar. This includes most Technology, Industrials, Consumer Staples, and many Health Care and Consumer Discretionary stocks. Until we can observe how the dollar reacts to initial Fed hikes this remains a difficult risk to dismiss or quantify. At current FX rates, FX drags should stop in 2Q16. We see Industrials with most FX risk given its high foreign profits and then disadvantages vs. trade partners.

But CEOs are not ignoring this reality, as we noted previously, "It's not the economy... it's the dollar" - That would appear to be the message from the companies of the S&P 500 who have reported in Q3. As FactSet reports, 18 of the 23 companies reporting so far have cited "the strong dollar" as having a negative impact on earnings. Not record domestic inventories (liquidation beginning), the plunge in world trade, not the economic collapse in take your pick of Brazil (depression), China (credit endgame), India (exports/imports crash), and so on...

What is being missed here is that "The Dollar" is the symptom, not the cause of the problems. Capital is flowing for a reason to drive the USD stronger (or printed for a reason)... because the underlying economies are collapsing (yes and interest rate arb hopes).

So if ever there was a reason for The Fed to NOT raise rates, the pressure from Corporate CEOs (through their various lobbying or newsletter-writing alumni) must be immense...

It appears, for now, financial engineering (buybacks) has kept the dream alive relative to the soaring USD vs Asian/EM countries (US growth opps); and "hopeful" projections have kept Forward estimates of earnings alive - even as The USD soars against the American companies' most favored growth nations...


But at some point it's inevitable - unless there is a seismic shift in Fed Policy (QE4?) - that the USD's strength vs Asian/EM nations will crush earnings... and estimates will be unable to rise with even the biggest hockey-stick forecast.

Remember. crises often start slowly... then erupt suddenly; and equity markets are always (without exception) the last to figure it out.

The credit cycle has well and truly rolled over...

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"France Is At War": Hollande Unleashes 2nd Day Of ISIS Strikes, Mobilizes 115,000, Moves To Change Constitution
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/17/2015 - 13:35

For the second straight day, France hit ISIS "targets" in Raqqa while domestic security personnel conducted more than 120 fresh raids across the country in a frantic effort to head off further attacks. Meanwhile, President Hollande is making a bid to change the constitution in what some are billing as a French "Patriot Act."


BofA Is A "Seller Of Risk" As Everyone Is Long The Dollar, US Stocks Never More Overvalued
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/17/2015 - 15:15

"We are sellers of risk SPX 2050-2100, DXY>100. Terror/geopolitics can keep ZIRP for longer, but bullish FMS indicates big EPS needed for sustained new risk highs."

[Fenix]

Baltic Dry Index Crashes Near Record Low
Submitted by Tyler D.
11/17/2015 - 16:55

The Baltic Dry Index staged a recovery mid-year, hopefully rising amid promises of stability in China and an 'escape' velocity USA. All that centrally-planned hope and hype faith has been eviscerated on the altar of economic reality. With no ability to directly manipulate the Baltic Dry Index to 'pretend' everything is awesome, it remains among the best 'real' indicators of the state of the global economy... and it's in the toilet...

[Fenix]

*
One of the Paris Terrorists Was “WHITE, Clean-Shaven”
Post date: 11/17/2015 - 12:45
False Flag? Light-Skinned, Clean-Shaven ISIS Jihadis Who Went Undercover To Carry Out The Terrorist Attack? Or Homegrown Terrorists?





It's Official - Biggest Nino Ever - Killer La Nina to Follow
Posted by: Bruce Krasting
Post date: 11/17/2015 - 08:48
-If you're thinking of buying that dream house on the ocean in the Sunbelt, wait a year - there will be some bargains. If you're a seller - call the broker soon....

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U.S. Mint Sales of Gold Coins Fall In October After 234% Surge in Q3
11/17/2015 12:20 -0500


U.S. Mint Sales of Gold Coins Fall In October After 234% Surge in Q3

by Dr Constantin Gurdgiev

Total sales of U.S. Mint gold coins came in at 44,500 oz per 94,500 coins sold – including both Eagles and Buffalos. This marked a significant decline in sales y/y, with volume by weight down 49.7% y/y and the number of units sold down 33.7%. Average weight of coin sold was down 24.2% y/y to 0.4709 oz per coin.


Total Sales of US Mint Coins since 2006

As chart above indicates, October fall-off in demand came after the end of 3Q that saw total volume of coding gold sold by the U.S. Mint rising incredible 234% y/y (compared to 3Q 2014) by weight and 305% y/y in terms of number of units sold.

At a total of 471,000 oz sold over 934,500 units in 3Q 2015, last quarter was the best one since 2Q 2010 in terms of volume by weight sales and the best in history of the series (from 1Q 2006) in terms of number of coins sold.


Total Sales of US Mint Gold Eagles and Buffalo Bullion Coins since 2006

Not surprisingly, scale fall off in demand in October can be explained by the moderation in demand back to cyclical normal. As shown in the chart above, overall October sales figures came in below the period average for May 2013 through present. However, stripping out three main outlier peaks in demand, the average comes to 49,978 oz – closer to the October reading of 44,500 oz. In historical comparatives, demand for gold coins in October was 38th lowest by total weight and 56th lowest by coins counts for any month from January 2006 through present.

Another point worth making is seasonality. Over 2006-present horizon, October saw significant decline in demand for gold coins in seven out of 10 years, with insignificant changes m/m recorded in one month. In other words, October tends to be a more bearish month of U.S. Mint coins sales.

Final point worth making is that correlation between demand for U.S. Mint coins (by total oz weight) continued to show negative 12 months correlation with gold price. In October, this correlation stood at -0.58, slightly less in absolute value than in September (-0.59) and below -0.72 correlation in October 2014. Overall, negative correlation remained in every month from April 2014 on, suggesting stable demand interest from investors on foot of gold price declines.

Read the excellent research on US Mint gold coin sales in October by Dr Constantin Gurdgiev.

Editor’s Note: As was seen in the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends Q3 2015 last week, low gold prices in the third quarter saw bargain hunters globally and particularly the U.S. accumulate far more gold bullion coins and bars than they did in any other quarter over the past five years.

According to the report released last Thursday, global gold demand rose 8 percent on-year to 1,121 tons in the third quarter, with the U.S. seeing a new surge in demand.

“There were significant gains in bar and coin demand in China and across Europe, but it was in the U.S. where we saw the most dramatic growth, with U.S. Mint Eagle sales reaching their highest level since the second quarter of 2010,” Alistair Hewitt, Head of market intelligence at the World Gold Council, told media.

Thus, the decline in U.S. Mint sales of gold coins in October was a natural consequence of a decline in the near record demand seen in Q3 and reflects the normal ebb and flow of demand for gold coins and bars.

Last week gold price fell to 5 year lows and weakness again saw canny buyers accumulate on the dip. Sales of U.S. Mint gold coins jumped the most in nearly three months. The 2015 $10 American Gold Eagles actually sold out.

Read more on the GoldCore.com blog

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DAILY PRICES
Today’s Gold Prices: USD 1080.80, EUR 1013.60 and GBP 710.50 per ounce.
Yesterday’s Gold Prices: USD 1083.75, EUR 1006.60 and GBP 712.08 per ounce.
(LBMA AM)

GoldCore: Gold in USD - 5 years

Gold closed yesterday at 1083.20 a loss of $1.20 . Silver was also down slightly by $0.04 to close at $14.27. Platinum gained $7 to $863.

Gold is on the back foot this morning after declining for a thirteenth out of 14 sessions yesterday, albeit by a modest 0.1%. Gold saw safe haven demand push it to its highest in over a week yesterday in early trade, but failed to maintain those gains in U.S. hours as converted selling in the futures market capped gains and pushed prices marginally lower.

Sellers seemed determined to have gold close lower after the tragic events in Paris. A higher close would have led to increased safe haven demand due to growing concerns about the Eurozone and global economy.

Silver, platinum and palladium are a touch lower today. Palladium is down 1.6% at present, after managing to rise 2.2% yesterday.

IMPORTANT NEWS
Gold steady as risk aversion offsets dollar strength – Reuters
Gold Holds Drop as Investors Shift Focus Back to Fed From Paris – Bloomberg
Paulson Maintains Gold Stake as Prices Touch Five-Year Low – Bloomberg
Funds bail on gold miners in third-quarter as bullion prices tumble – Reuters
Gold Rallies After Paris Attacks as Fed Still Dominates Outlook – Bloomberg

IMPORTANT ANALYSIS
France swats aside EU budget rules in rearmament blitz – The Telegraph
The Bullish Case for Aussie Gold – GoldSeek
The biggest rip-off in fund management today – MoneyWeek
London Mansion Prices Fall 11.5% as Home `Bubble’ May Have Burst – Bloomberg