Viernes 10/22/10 Reportan Verizon, Honeywell,

[Victor VE]

Muy cierto, no dejen nunca que el gobierno del Peru crezca tanto.

No te preocupes, aca en Perú cuando algo crece demasiado lo paramos en seco.

[admin]

Me alegro.

[admin]

Que habria dicho Milton Friedman del Fed de Bernanke?

Cuatro anios despues de su muerte, Milton Friedman sigue siendo tan relevante hoy dia como lo fue hace 30 anios. Hasta Barnake "helicoptero Ben" nickname que viene del famoso "helicopter droop" de Friedman para combatir la deflation ha mencionado a Friedman como su inspiracion de sus politicas.

Primero, intereses bajos no necesariamente significa politica monetaria facil.

Friedman critico las politicas del Fed de 1930 y al Bank of Japan en los 90s acerca de este mismo punto. Ambos bancos centrales decian que sus politicas eran muy convenientes para esos tiempos, diciendo que los intereses bajos eran una evidencia de su politica monetaria facil. Friedman sin embargo, decia, que los intereses bajos reflejan una economia debil y no una politica monetaria facil.

En 1997, el llamo a la idea de identificar intereses bajos como politica monetaria facil una falacia de interest-rate.
La unica vez en que los intereses bajos indican una politica monetaria facil es cuando estan debajo del interes neutral, el cual es el interes donde la politica monetaria no es ni estimulativa ni muy ajustada y esta empujando a la economia hacia un alcance de su mayor potencial.

Actualmente el interest neutral es tambien bajo. El Fed no deberia depender del nivel de intereses del fondo federal una medida de la politica monetaria que determina si sus acciones estan apoyando o perjudicando a la economia.

Segundo, el Fed deberia apuntar a estabilizar las expectativas de inflacion.

En su libor de 1992 "Money Mischief", Friedman hizo un llamado a la legislacion que requeria que el Fed estabilize la diferencia entre los el nominal yields de los bonos del Tesoro y el interes real de los bonos protegidos contra la inflacion (TIPS). Este spread (diferencia) es el estimado del mercado de la inflacion futura.

Friedman queria que el Fed atacara la inflacion esperada y que promueva la estabilidad de los precios. Como un enfoque hacia el futuro, esto tambien evitaria los problemas asociados con la politica monetaria que mira al pasado.

Aunque recientemente ha aumentado, la inflacion esperada o futura, que es medida por el spread de los Treasuries de 5 anios, ha declinado mas que en todo el anio. Si nada cambia, esta marcha a la baja de las expectativas de inflacion nos llevara a expectativas de deflacion para la primavera del 2011.


Viewpoint: What Would Milton Friedman Say About Fed Policy Under Bernanke?

Four years after his death, Milton Friedman's thoughts on monetary policy remain as relevant today as they were 30 years ago. Even Fed Chairman "Helicopter Ben" Bernanke (whose nickname comes from Friedman's famous "helicopter drop" idea for overcoming deflation) has referenced the Chicago don as an inspiration for his actions.

However, Friedman's views may not be well understood even by those who would claim him as their intellectual fountainhead — which could be problematic for policy-making. So what would Milton Friedman say about our current monetary policy?

First, low interest rates do not necessarily mean monetary policy is loose.

Friedman criticized the policies of the Fed in the 1930s and the Bank of Japan in the 1990s on this very point. Both central banks claimed to be highly accommodative at these times, pointing to low interest rates as evidence of easy monetary policy. Friedman countered, however, that low interest rates may reflect a weak economy rather than easy monetary policy.

Back in 1997, in fact, he called the idea of identifying low interest rates with easy monetary policy an interest-rate fallacy. The only time low interest rates do indicate loose monetary policy is when they are below the neutral interest-rate level, which is the interest-rate level where monetary policy is neither too simulative nor too contractionary and is pushing the economy toward its full potential.

The implication for today's Fed is that although its target federal funds rate is low, its stance still may not be very stimulative given that the neutral interest rate is also low. The Fed should not rely on the level of the federal funds rate to measure the stance of monetary policy to determine whether its actions are supporting or hindering the economy.

Second, the Fed should aim to stabilize inflation expectations.

In his 1992 book "Money Mischief," Friedman called for legislation requiring the Fed to stabilize the spread between the nominal yield on regular Treasury bonds and the real yield on inflation-protected Treasury bonds (TIPS). This spread is the market's estimate of future inflation.

Friedman wanted the Fed to target expected inflation, and to promote price stability. As a forward-looking approach, this would also avoid the "long and varying lag" problems associated with backward-looking monetary policy.

Though it has recently picked up, expected inflation, as measured by this spread on five-year Treasuries, has declined for most of the year. If nothing changes, this downward march of inflation expectations will lead to deflation expectations in spring 2011.

[admin]

Las acciones en el Asia subian debido a los buenos resultados corporativos, el dolar subia antes del G-20

El petroleo y las acciones en el Asia subian gracias a las utilidades, aumentando la confianza en la recuperacion de la economia global. El dolar subia ante la especulacion de que el G-20 se comprometerian a no debilitar sus monedas.

El MSCI Asia Pacific Index subia 0.2% a las 11:42 en tokyo.

Asia Stocks, Oil Rise on Earnings Reports; Dollar Gains Before G20 Meeting
By Shani Raja and Toshiro Hasegawa - Oct 21, 2010 11:04 PM

Asian stocks and oil rose as earnings beat estimates, boosting confidence in the global economic recovery. The dollar gained on speculation Group of 20 finance chiefs will pledge to refrain from weakening currencies.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.2 percent to 129.91 as of 11:42 a.m. in Tokyo. Futures on the U.S. Standard & Poor’s advanced 0.1 percent. The Dollar Index strengthened 0.1 percent to 77.492, set for a 0.6 percent appreciation in the past five days. Crude oil jumped 0.7 percent to $81.07 a barrel.

Earnings at companies from American Express Co. to EBay Inc. have beaten analyst predictions, bringing the percentage of companies in the MSCI World Index that reported better-than- estimated profit in the past month to 72 percent. Finance ministers plan to say members will refrain from “competitive undervaluation” of currencies, said an official from a member country, citing a draft statement and speaking on condition of anonymity.

“With the economic data being quite mixed, corporate earnings are going to be a key focal point,” said Chris Hall, who helps oversee the equivalent of $3.3 billion at Argo Investments in Adelaide, Australia. “People are looking for outlook comments that reaffirm the view that hopefully the recovery is underway. There’s obviously still a lot of caution over that.”

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 0.4 percent and South Korea’s Kospi Index gained 0.9 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.2 percent. The S&P 500 advanced 0.2 percent yesterday as better-than-estimated earnings helped offset a slump in financial companies amid speculation that banks face more losses from bad mortgages.

Earnings Improve

Brambles Ltd., the world’s biggest supplier of wooden pallets that gets almost half of its revenue from the Americas, advanced 2.5 percent in Sydney. Canon Inc., a Japanese camera maker that gets about 80 percent of its revenue overseas, climbed 1.2 percent in Tokyo. Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd. rose 2.6 percent on greater-than-forecast net income.

LG Display Co., the world’s second-largest maker of liquid- crystal displays, advanced 2.8 percent in Seoul after its third- quarter profit beat analysts’ estimates. Daewoo Securities Co. raised its share-price estimate by 7 percent to 48,000 won, citing an expected improvement in earnings in the first half of 2011, according to a report today. American Express, the biggest credit-card issuer by purchases, said third-quarter profit jumped 70 percent, more than analysts estimated.

China Drops

The MSCI Asia Pacific has risen 19 percent from its 2010 low on May 25 on speculation growth in profits will weather Europe’s debt crisis, Chinese steps to curb property-price inflation and a faltering U.S. economy.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.9 percent, the most in a month, as banks and commodity producers dropped on higher interest-rate concerns. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. led a gauge of financial stocks lower for a second day on concern the fastest inflation in 23 months will prompt policy makers to add to this week’s rate increase. Jiangxi Copper Co., China’s biggest producer of the metal, slid 3.7 percent.

“The market needs a breather after a big rally starting in the month,” said Wei Wei, an analyst at West China Securities Co. in Shanghai. “Some of the biggest gainers such as metals and coal producers will see outflows.”

Currency Outlook

The dollar was at $1.3907 per euro from $1.3920 in New York yesterday. The greenback slipped to 81.23 yen from 81.33.

“There are concerns that G-20 policy makers will discuss competitive undervaluation as a key agenda item,” said Naoto Minatogawa, a currency analyst in Tokyo at Himawari Securities Inc. “This makes it easier for investors to buy back the dollar, which has fallen on speculation of additional monetary easing.”

Finance ministers and central bankers will say after G-20 talks conclude in Gyeongju, South Korea, on Oct. 23 that they want a “more market-determined exchange rate system that minimizes adverse effects of excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates,” the G-20 official said.

The yen rose against most of its counterparts after Japan’s Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said that that it is not clear yet if a statement from G-20 policy makers will refer to foreign-exchange issues. Asked at a news conference if currencies will be mentioned in the statement, Noda said, “there’s still no clear outlook.”

Oil Gains

Oil retraced some of yesterday’s losses after reports showed U.S. jobless claims fell and oil output for September increased in China, the world’s biggest energy user. Chinese crude production gained 9 percent in September from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday.

“Fundamental signals were positive, with oil output in China at near record levels, suggesting strong demand for crude,” Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne, said in a note today. “Economic data from other key nations were also positive, with U.S. jobless claims declining last week.”

Copper for three-month delivery was little changed at $8,312 per metric ton. The metal was heading for a drop of 1 percent this week, snapping five weeks of gains, as the dollar was on track to end five weeks of losses. Gold for immediate delivery was little changed at $1,326.45 an ounce. The precious metal was on course for its first decline in six weeks.

To contact the reporters on this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net; Toshiro Hasegawa in Tokyo at thasegawa6@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Sandy

[admin]

Au up

SPOT MARKET IS OPEN
closes in 17 hrs. 52 mins.
Oct 21, 2010 23:23 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1328.40 - 1329.40
Low/High 1317.10 - 1349.00
Change +2.70 +0.20%
30daychg +41.60 +3.23%
1yearchg +269.60 +25.46%
Charts...


Korea +0.90% up

Los futures del Dow Jones 16 puntos al alza.

[admin]

Lo sindicatos de US son los que mas han contribuido a la campania electoral para lograr que lso democratas se mantengan en el poder. Los sindicatos del pais han gastado mas dinero en los democratas que la Camara de Comercio, la AFL-CIO y todos los grupos de republicanos.

Los 1.6 millones de miembros han gastado un total de $87.5 millones en las elecciones aparte de $16 millones de una cuenta de emergencia para ayudar a los democratas en el Congreso.


Campaign's Big Spender
Public-Employees Union Now Leads All Groups in Independent Election Outlays

By BRODY MULLINS And JOHN D. MCKINNON
The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees is now the biggest outside spender of the 2010 elections, thanks to an 11th-hour effort to boost Democrats that has vaulted the public-sector union ahead of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the AFL-CIO and a flock of new Republican groups in campaign spending.

The 1.6 million-member AFSCME is spending a total of $87.5 million on the elections after tapping into a $16 million emergency account to help fortify the Democrats' hold on Congress. Last week, AFSCME dug deeper, taking out a $2 million loan to fund its push. The group is spending money on television advertisements, phone calls, campaign mailings and other political efforts, helped by a Supreme Court decision that loosened restrictions on campaign spending.

"We're the big dog," said Larry Scanlon, the head of AFSCME's political operations. "But we don't like to brag."

The 2010 election could be pivotal for public-sector unions, whose clout helped shield members from the worst of the economic downturn. In the 2009 stimulus and other legislation, Democratic lawmakers sent more than $160 billion in federal cash to states, aimed in large part at preventing public-sector layoffs. If Republicans running under the banner of limited government win in November, they aren't likely to support extending such aid to states.

Newly elected conservatives will also likely push to clip the political power of public-sector unions. For years, conservatives have argued such unions have an outsize influence in picking the elected officials who are, in effect, their bosses, putting them in a strong position to push for more jobs, and thus more political clout.

Some critics say public-sector unions are funded by what is essentially taxpayer cash, since member salaries, and therefore union dues, come directly from state budgets.

"Public-sector unions have a guaranteed source of revenue—you and me as taxpayers," said Glenn Spencer, executive director of the Workforce Freedom Initiative at the Chamber of Commerce.

Gregory King, a spokesman for AFSCME, said conservatives make too much of the issue, especially the link to taxpayers. Based on their logic, "the government is funding the movie industry every time AFSCME members go out to the movies," he said.

The union is spending heavily this year because "a lot of people are attacking public-sector workers as the problem," said AFSCME President Gerald McEntee. "We're spending big. And we're damn happy it's big. And our members are damn happy it's big—it's their money," he said.

Spending totals are still in flux, and another group could overtake AFSCME in the race's remaining days.

Campaign spending by outside groups is increasing rapidly but is still smaller than spending by the Democratic and Republican parties, which combined have already doled out nearly $1 billion in this election cycle, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.

AFSCME's campaign push accounts for an estimated 30% of what pro-Democratic groups, including unions, plan to spend on independent campaigns to elect Democrats. It was made possible in part by a 2010 Supreme Court decision that permitted companies and unions to use their own funds to pay for certain political ads. That unleashed a flood of contributions and spawned an array of new outside political organizations, most of which were set up to help elect Republicans.

The political debate over spending by outside groups has focused largely on advertising buys by those Republican-oriented groups. Unions have mostly escaped attention in that debate, in part because they traditionally have spent much of their cash on other kinds of political activities, including get-out-the-vote efforts.

Previously, most labor-sponsored campaign ads had to be funded by volunteer donations. Now, however, AFSCME can pay for ads using annual dues from members, which amount to about $390 per person. AFSCME said it will tap membership dues to pay for $17 million of ads backing Democrats this election.

President Barack Obama has criticized the Supreme Court decision that opened the door to more spending by corporations and unions. When asked about AFSCME's ramped up campaign efforts following the court's decision, the White House focused on largely anonymous campaign spending by what it termed "special interests."

"The president has been crystal clear that third-party groups which spend tens of millions of dollars from anonymous sources are a threat to our democracy—regardless of which candidates they support," said White House spokesman Josh Earnest. He said these groups are disproportionately backing Republican candidates.

[admin]

Se les va a acabar la mamadera a los sindicatos.

[Arnold]

La NASA halla plata en la Luna

21 de Octubre de 2010 • 16:30

El suelo lunar contiene una gran variedad de elementos químicos y metales, como la plata, según resultados de análisis de una estela de material que siguió al impacto de un proyectil de la Nasa en octubre de 2009, revelaron trabajos publicados el jueves.

La agencia espacial estadounidense precipitó una unidad de 2,3 toneladas sobre el cráter Cabeus, en el polo sur de la Luna, seguido de cerca por la sonda LCROSS, cuyos instrumentos pudieron analizar los materiales que se proyectaron por el choque que cavó un agujero de 20 a 30 metros de diámetro.

La Nasa había ya anunciado en noviembre de 2009 que había detectado cantidades importantes de agua congelada en esta estela.

La última serie de análisis de restos y polvo muestra que el suelo lunar contiene no sólo agua, sino además monóxido de carbono, dióxido de carbono (CO2), amoníaco, sodio, plata, hidrógeno y mercurio, señaló el geólogo Peter Schultz de la Universidad Brown (Rhode Island), noreste de Estados Unidos, principal autor del trabajo publicado en la revista Science de fecha 22 de octubre.

"Este cráter parece ser un tesoro de elementos químicos que están en este lugar en una permanente oscuridad", señala el investigador. Según él, gran cantidad de estos elementos provienen del bombardeo incesante de la Luna por parte de cometas y meteoritos desde hace miles de millones de años.

El geólogo piensa que un grupo de átomos y partículas de estos elementos depositados en la superficie de la Luna podrían haber sido liberados por otros impactos de meteoritos el calor del Sol, que los cargó de energía.

Una vez liberados del fino polvo que forma el suelo lunar, estos elementos químicos acabaron en los polos, atrapados en los fríos cráteres donde no entran nunca los rayos del Sol

[Arnold]

Preocupación por el modelo económico peruano
21 de Octubre de 2010

LIMA.- En Perú persisten brechas inexplicables para el nivel de desarrollo que viene alcanzando el país, dijo esta semana el representante del Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID), Fidel Jaramillo, dejando al descubierto algunas dudas que existen sobre el modelo que se viene impulsando.

En algunas partes como Lima, señaló, el nivel de desarrollo es alto pero en otras es comparable con países africanos, y "para el nivel de desarrollo relativo que tiene, debería haber cubierto su brecha de infraestructura", declaró el funcionario del BID.

En los últimos cinco años Perú ha venido creciendo de manera sostenida a un ritmo de un 7% anual, lo que lo ha convertido en una de las economías más dinámicas del continente. Y después del bajón internacional producto de la crisis del 2008, el país andino viene recuperando velocidad.

Y si bien durante el mismo periodo, según datos del Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INEI), se ha conseguido reducir la pobreza en cerca de un 14%, el modelo no está exento de críticas.


Más esfuerzo para reducir pobreza

Para el BID, la nación andina está bien encaminada para alcanzar en 2011 una reducción de la pobreza del 34.8% actual al 30% para el año próximo. Pero advirtió que el verdadero desafío consiste en reducirla más allá de ese porcentaje.

"El esfuerzo adicional que hay que hacer para reducir cada punto de pobreza será muchísimo mayor", por lo que en su opinión el crecimiento económico no es suficiente.

Esto tiene que ver, explicó, con llevar servicios básicos como salud, agua, educación, a las zonas con mayor pobreza.

"Podemos concluir que se va a requerir mayor esfuerzo financiero, humano y de gestión, (...) porque es más complejo reducir los niveles de pobreza rural", manifestó Jaramillo.

En esa línea, señaló que el BID está dispuesto a apoyar la siguiente etapa en la reducción de la pobreza a niveles por debajo del 25%, para lo que se necesitará mayor inversión pública y mayor apoyo del sector privado.


Críticas de Michael Porter

Sus comentarios coincidieron con el hecho de que en la última semana volvió a circular un correo electrónico que hacía referencia a la visita de Michael Porter a Perú, hace casi un año, cuyo diagnóstico de la situación de Perú cayó como un baldazo de agua helada.

Porter, un economista estadounidense y profesor de la Universidad de Harvard, es una autoridad mundial en temas de estrategia competitiva y en competitividad y el desarrollo económico de las naciones.

Su diagnóstico, basado fortalezas y debilidades del sistema peruano cuestionó el estado de la situación a varios niveles y, en su opinión, este modelo no era sustentable si no se introducían cambios.

Para Michael Porter, la economía peruana tiene aspectos muy positivos, como sus políticas macroeconómicas que la han permitido dinamismo y crecimiento, pero señala que junto a eso hay notorias debilidades.


Fortalezas y debilidades

Entre ellas que la "prosperidad continúa siendo baja y grandes sectores de la población no tienen acceso a servicios básicos".

Un alto nivel de desigualdad persiste y señaló que "Perú depende excesivamente de la exportación de sus materias primas más cotizadas, que tienen un potencial limitado para crear trabajo y diversificación de la economía".

En una de sus descripciones más duras, Porter indicó que a pesar de sus avances Perú tiene uno de los niveles más bajos de competitividad a nivel mundial, sus exportaciones no están generando crecimiento sólido de empleo y el país tiene preocupantes niveles de corrupción, una institucionalidad muy débil y niveles de educación e infraestructura muy pobres.

[Arnold]

Futures Last Change Settle
Crude Oil 81.01 0.45 80.56
Gold, Dec. 1327.6 2.0 1325.6
DJ Industrials 11097 14 11083
S&P 500 1177.20 1.50 1175.70

[admin]

Las ganancias de HON y VZ caen pero superan las expectativas de los analistas.

Market Events | Earnings Announcements
Announcing Company Estimate Actual
Before the Open Verizon VZ +0.54 +0.56
Before the Open Schlumberger SLB +0.69 +0.70
Before the Open Honeywell HON +0.62 +0.64
Before the Open LM Ericsson ERIC +0.160 +0.170
Before the Open Exelon EXC +1.12 --
This Week: 18th 19th 20th 21st 22nd

[admin]

Los futures del Dow Jones 33 puntos al alza.

Oil up 81.66

Au up 1,326.90, futures cu up 3,7980

Buenos comentarios de Hon acerca de sus perspectivas futuras. Sus acciones al alza.

Ingersoll Rand ve mejora en la demanda, sus acciones al alza.

SLB tambien al alza, sus operaciones en US excelentes.

[admin]

+39

Oil up 81.76

Futures cu up 3.80, Ag, up.

Euro up 1.3967 y por eso todo al alza esta maniana.

+38

American Express dijo que el gasto subio 14%, buenos resultados. Chiplote Mexican mejor a lo esperado tambien.

Keycorp tambien la misma historia. Todo esto parece de suenios, todos reportan mejor a lo esperado. Todos con buenos comentarios.
eBay, Baidu al alza tambien.

+34

Francia vota hoy dia por el aumento de edad de los retirados.

[admin]

Euroa mixta, el Asica cerro mixta.

Oil up 81.64

Las refinerias podrian bajar 10% dice un analista, baja demanda.

[admin]

OIl up 81.57

Au ag 23.23

Yen down 81.27 y por eso todo al alza., dolar debil.

Libor igual 0.29%