Martes 22/12/15 GDP (PBI), Indice de casas existentes

[Fenix]

¿Y si a la Bolsa le quedara 10 años de mercado alcista?

Carlos Montero
Martes, 22 de Diciembre del 2015 - 13:45:00

La historia dice que este mercado alcista no ha terminado. Por lo menos en lo que se refiere al mercado líder mundial: Wall Street. El siguiente gráfico, que nos viene de nuestro compañero Tom Lee de Fundstrat Global Advisors, muestra que cuando nos fijamos en la rentabilidad de los mercados de acciones en periodos de 10, parece que el mercado alcista de Wall Street sólo acaba de comenzar.

Después de tocar lo que Tom Lee ve como un suelo generacional en 2009 después de la crisis financiera, las acciones se han triplicado. Pero en comparación con las subidas de varias décadas que hemos visto en los últimos 100 años más o menos, el mercado alcista actual todavía tiene un buen camino por recorrer y podría durar hasta el final de la próxima década.

Lee, que tiene un objetivo de fin de año en el S&P 500 de 2325 para 2016, fue el analista más alcista entre los rastreados por Business Insider en 2015. Su previsión para este año, sin embargo, parece que va a fallar por un poco.

Pero la tesis general de Lee es que mientras que las acciones han tenido un año difícil en 2015 y se enfrentan a una serie de desafíos el próximo año, incluyendo el aumento de las tasas de interés y un dólar fuerte que pesa sobre las economías emergentes, está firmemente en terreno de lo que dice es un mercado alcista secular.


Savita Subramanian de Bank of America Merrill Lynch y Adam Parker en Morgan Stanley también se encuentran entre los que creen que el mercado alcista actual no ha tocado techo y lo más probable es que se esté tomando una pausa antes de reanudar las subidas.

En su último informe de perspectivas bursátiles, Subramanian dijo que el S&P 500 podría dirigirse a cerca de 3.500 - desde los 2.000 aproximadamente a los que cotiza actualmente - en 2025, mientras que Parker simplemente presentó un caso de por qué ahora no es el momento de pronosticar el fin del mercado alcista.

Y, en general, no hay ningún gran analista que esté pronosticando una caída del S&P 500 para el año que viene.

Por otra parte, lo mismo ocurrió el año pasado y las acciones, en última instancia, se movieron bastante planas.

Lacartadelabolsa
Fuentes: Business Insider

[Fenix]

EE.UU. ya puede exportar petróleo

Bankinter
Martes, 22 de Diciembre del 2015 - 14:11:00

El Congreso de Estados Unidos aprobó el viernes la ley que permite exportar petróleo. Esta ahora tiene que ser ratificado por el presidente Obama siendo hoy el día límite. Lo razonable es que lo firme. Esta ley se encuadra dentro de la Ley de Financiamiento del ejercicio fiscal de 2016. Tan pronto como entre en vigor:

i) EE.UU. podrá canalizar al mercado internacional parte de las elevadas reservas de crudo que tienen almacenadas;

ii) se acentuará el exceso de oferta de crudo en el mercado;

iii) los consumidores podrán comprar crudo de muy alta calidad (WTI 39,6º API; Brent 38,3º; Arab light 34º o el Dubai 31º) como es el WTI frente a otros crudos de diversa calidad a un precio inferior.

Por ejemplo, el WTI ha cotizado en los últimos años con descuento de 2$/brr frente al Brent. En la actualidad: Brent 36,49$/brr vs WTI 36,08$/brr a pesar de ser el Brent de peor calidad. De esta forma se potenciará la industria petrolera estadounidense de exploración y producción frente a la europea (Mar del Norte) o a la de los países de la OPEP.


Lo razonable es: i) que el precio del crudo continúe a la baja; ii) Que se cierre el diferencial entre el Brent vs WTI.

Es decir el Brent debería cotizar por debajo del WTI circunstancia que no es así. A raíz de esta noticia, el crudo continuó ayer su tendencia a la baja llegando a caer un -1,5%. Al cierre: Brent –1,44% y WTI +0,01%. Seguimos recomendando salir del sector petrolero así como de las compañías auxiliares del petróleo.

[Fenix]

14:35 Indicadores de sentimiento del inversor
José Luis Martínez Campuzano de Citi
GRAMI (Global Risk Aversion Macro Index)
EMRA (Emerging Market Risk Aversion Index)
NISI (News Implied Sentiment Indicator

GRAMI ligeramente al alza en la semana y EMRA a la baja: pero, aunque mejora ligeramente el apetito por el riesgo a nivel general (y empeora en emergentes), seguimos viendo niveles de aversión al riesgo.

Algo similar en el caso del NISI: aunque mejora de forma marginal, sigue mostrando que los inversores son bearish en estos momentos.

14:45 Warren Buffet: Un año para olvidar
Las acciones de Berkshire Hathaway, instrumento inversor del mítico gestor Warren Buffet, han caído cerca del 13% este año. La última vez que tuvo tan mal comportamiento fue en 2008 cuando las acciones de Berkshire caían más del 30%.

El S&P 500 cae este año cerca del 2%. La última vez que Berkshire se comportó peor que el indicador americano fue en 1999. Ese año el S&P 500 subió un 19,5%, mientras que las acciones de Berkshire caían un 20%

La razón de este mal comportamiento del fondo gestionado por Buffet es la mala actuación de valores de su cartera como:

- American Express: -26,5%
- Procter & Gamble: -13,8%
- Walmart: -31,5%
- Davita HealthCare Partners: -9,4%
- Goldman Sachs: -8,9%
- Deere & Co.: -14,9%
- USG: -14,5%

[Fenix]

"Smart Money" Options Indicator Has Never Been More Bearish
12/22/2015 08:08 -0500
Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

For the first time ever, S&P 100 traders are holding more than 3 put options for every call.

Most of the sentiment and position metrics that we monitor, and highlight on the pages, are viewed as contrary indicators. That is, once they reach an extreme, investors or traders would be wise to act “contrary” to the extreme. In other words, the crowd is wrong at extremes. At least that is generally the case, historically speaking. There are a few exceptions to that rule. One such exception can be found in the traders of S&P 100, or OEX, options. Historically, this group has been on the right side of the market more times than not when their collective options position is at an extreme. This may be something to take note of as OEX traders have never held more put options relative to call options as they do right now.

Specifically, when measuring the open interest in OEX options, Friday’s readings marked the first time ever with more than 3 put options for every call option. Today’s reading came in even more extreme at 3.3 puts for every 1 call. A look at the chart over the last 16 years illustrates truly how extreme these readings are.


image


As we noted in our last update on this indicator in April, these elevated readings have become more frequent as well as more extreme. It used to be that we viewed readings above 2.0 as extreme. From 1999-2014, there were just 15 days that registered a reading above 2.0.

What is so significant about those extremes in OEX open interest put/call readings? They were almost all accurate in forewarning of struggles in the stock market. In late 1999 and mid 2007, the extreme readings preceded cyclical market tops. In mid-2011, the extreme occurred prior to the sharp summer decline. And while readings in June 2003 and late 2014 did not precede major weakness, the stock market did stagnate for several months following. Perhaps only an occurrence in January 2012 proved to be a complete bust as a warning sign.

Then, there’s 2015. After 15 readings above 2.0 in 15 years, there have been no fewer than 166 readings that high so far in 2015. What gives? Either it truly is “different this time”…or this is an unprecedented red flag waving in front of us.

One factor that has been brought up in regards to the indicator and its potential effectiveness is volume. While OEX used to be a standard-bearer in terms of an equity index options contract, this is no lnger the case. Volume is a fraction of what it once was. This seems like a genuine reason to treat the signal with a grain of salt. That said, volume has been dwindling for years and, for the most part, the signals have remained pretty accurate.

So what’s our takeaway? With OEX volume as depressed as it is now, the bearish connotations of an elevated reading in the OEX open interest put/call ratio are perhaps mitigated to a degree. Even so, when we see readings so far stretched beyond even former extreme levels, we still think it’s worthwhile to take notice. As we said in the April post, looking at the current readings on the chart is like looking at Wilt Chamberlain’s 4th grade class picture.

[Fenix]

Something Crazy Is Going On In Swedish Money Markets
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/22/2015 - 09:54

It appears Swedish banks are falling over themselves to get rid of excess cash. We noted Swedish banks refusing to open bank accounts in September, and warned in October of a "giant wave of money" heading into Sweden thanks to the Riksbank-ECB policy divergence, and now, Swedish banks are paying each other to take cash off their balance sheets into year-end, as 1-week STIBOR crashes to -1.792%.

[Fenix]

The Keynesian Recovery Meme Is About To Get Mugged, Part 1
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/22/2015 - 13:55

Since our Keynesian central bankers have no clue that their prodigious money printing resulted in the drastic underpricing of credit and capital over the course of the past two decades, they are flying blind. They simply fail to see that the global economy is now swamped in more excess capacity than at any time since the 1930s, and probably even then. So they keep expecting the commodity cycle to momentarily bottom and prices to rebound, thereby reflating CapEx and household spending.


China's Cost To Avoid The Dreaded Working Class Revolution: A Record CNY11.1 Trillion, And Rising
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/22/2015 - 12:37


The World Of Work Has Changed And It's Never Going Back To The "Good Old Days"
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/22/2015 - 12:12

Wishful thinking is not a solution. The world of work has changed, and the rate of change is increasing. Despite the hopes of those who want to turn back the clock to the golden era of high-paying, low-skilled manufacturing jobs and an abundance of secure service-sector white collar jobs, history doesn't have a reverse gear.

[Fenix]

WTI Crude Trades At Premium To Brent For First Time In Over 11 Months
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/22/2015 - 11:43

Just as we warned, since the US export ban 'lift' loomed, so WTI prices have shifted notably, having today converged to Brent's price for first time since January. It may have a lot further to fall as some analysts suggest the lifting of the export ban "is going to end up ultimately being bearish everything."


Uncertainty Looms Over Global Markets In 2016
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/22/2015 - 14:35

Without being able to predict the election outcome in 2016, it will be prudent to keep cash levels high in order to maintain flexibility. Furthermore with the leading beta asset classes starting to exhibit corrections, there are growing signs that the investing environment is changing, which should give investors pause.

[Fenix]

The Fed's Grinchmas Message To Markets: This Is As Good As It Gets, Mizuho Warns
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/22/2015 - 15:10

The first Fed rate hike in seven years was supposed to trigger a powerful equity rally as the bulls expected money to pour out of bonds into stocks; especially into the cyclicals. Unfortunately for the equity bulls,, as Mizuho's Steve Ricchiuto notes, this time things are different and instead of the Fed rate hike triggering the traditional Santa Claus rally; it looks like the FOMC is actually the Grinch. The key message delivered by the Fed though the SEP, the DOTS and the Chair’s post meeting press conference is that this is the best the economy is going to get.


Technically Speaking: It's Now Or Never For Santa
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/22/2015 - 15:35

With the market now back to oversold conditions and redemptions complete, it is now or never for the traditional “Santa Rally.” Statistically speaking, the odds are high that the market will muster a rally over the next couple of weeks. While the short-term trends are indeed still bullishly-biased, the longer-term analysis (monthly) reveals a more dangerous picture emerging.

[Fenix]

At 108 US Colleges, More Than Half Of Students Haven't Paid Even $1 On Their Student Loans
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/22/2015 - 16:44

At 108 four-year colleges, at least half of all students hadn’t paid even $1 of what they owe within three years of leaving college. Those colleges got more than $10 billion in federal student loans and grants last year.


Crude Extends Gains After API Reports Unexpectedly Large Inventory Draw
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/22/2015 - 16:59

Following last week's huge build reported by DOE, crude inventories reported by API tonight dropped 3.6 million barrels (drastically different from the 2.3mm build expected). WTI is rallying on the news, despite a 1.5 million barrel build at Cushing (up notably from last week's 847k) - the 7th weekly build in a row.

[Fenix]

9 Of The 10 Largest U.S. Occupations Pay Miserly Wages
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/22/2015 - 18:08

The 10 largest occupations include retail salespersons and cashiers, food preparation and serving workers, general office clerks, registered nurses, customer service representatives, and waiters and waitresses. That combined group of workers accounted for 21 percent of total U.S. employment in May 2014. Only one - registered nurse - makes more than the national average when it comes to all U.S. jobs.