Martes 29/12/15 Indice del precio de las casas

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Faber dice que US esta entrando en recesion. En el tercer trimestre US crecio solo 2%, comparado con el 3.9% en el trimestre anterios (anualizado)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... treasuries

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Yen up 1.2041

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Grandes fundiciones chinas acuerdan reducir ventas de cobre en 200.000 toneladas en 2016: fuente
martes 29 de diciembre de 2015 12:17 GYT Imprimir
Cátodos de cobre, vistos en un almacen cerca del puerto Yangshan Deep Water, al sur de Shanghái, 23 de marzo de 2012. Nueve grandes fundiciones de cobre en China acordaron reducir las ventas del metal al contado en hasta 200.000 toneladas en el primer trimestre del 2016 considerando los bajos precios del mercado, dijo el lunes un ejecutivo en una de las plantas. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
1 de 1Tamaño Completo
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Nueve grandes fundiciones de cobre en China acordaron reducir las ventas del metal al contado en hasta 200.000 toneladas en el primer trimestre del 2016 considerando los bajos precios del mercado, dijo el lunes un ejecutivo en una de las plantas.

La cantidad equivale a casi un 10 por ciento de la producción de cobre refinado de China en el primer trimestre del 2015.

El plan de limitar las ventas al contado se suma a una decisión previa de las fundiciones de reducir la producción el próximo año en al menos 350.0000 toneladas en un esfuerzo por apuntalar los precios que están operando cerca a mínimos de seis años.

El acuerdo se produce después de que las fundiciones sostuvieron una reunión bimensual en Shanghái durante el fin de semana. Las nueve firmas forman parte del Equipo de Compras de Fundiciones Chinas (CSPT, por su sigla en inglés) e incluyen a Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals y Jinchuan Group.

Bajo los términos de la última propuesta, las plantas colocarían cierto volumen de metal refinado en almacenes en lugar de venderlo en el mercado al contado.

Aún así, generarán ganancias mediante acuerdos de financiación de existencias con bancos, dijo el ejecutivo, que tenía conocimiento directo de la reunión.

"Las fundiciones no quieren vender a precios que sean inferiores a sus costos", dijo el ejecutivo, que declinó ser identificado debido a la política de su empresa.

Las plantas podrían retomar las ventas de cobre al contado almacenado si los precios al contado superan los 40.000 yuanes en el mercado local, agregó.

El cobre cayó a cerca a mínimos de seis años en el mercado interno y externo en el segundo semestre de este año. Los precios al contado cotizaron en torno a los 35.900 yuanes por tonelada en Shanghái el martes.


(Reporte de Polly Yam; Editado en español por María Cecilia Mora)

© Thomson Reuters 2015 All rights

[Fenix]

Something Just Snapped In Saudi Arabia
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/29/2015 - 01:53

Following yesterday's budget (deficit) and the 'sacrifice-the-people's-comfort-for-the-death-of-US-Shale' plan that we detailed here, it appears market concerns about Saudi Arabia's forward-looking health are rising. As Bloomberg reports, USDSAR 12-month forwards jumped 250pts (the most since December 2007) to 725bps (the highest level since March 1999) implying expectations of a looming de-pegged, devaluation. Perhaps just as worrying is this is the same pattern that played out in August as Yuan weakness sparked HIBOR stress, leading to SAR forward weakness and then US equity market collapse.

[Fenix]

In Latest Blow To Apple, Taiwan Makers Cut iPhone Shipments Up To 10%
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/29/2015 - 08:25

While the straws have been building on the camel's back of Apple's "no brainer" status over the past few months, today's news from DigiTimes appears to be the most damning yet on the 'peak Apple' phenomenon. Apple share are fading off early market highs as demand for iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus appear to have slowed down recently, shipments of iPhone devices from production lines in the fourth quarter of 2015 are likely to be 5-10% lower than originally expected, according to Taiwan-based supply chain makers.



Safe On The Sidelines - 405 Days And Counting
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/29/2015 - 08:46

The S&P 500 closed at 2052 on November 18,2014. That was 405 days ago, and despite the rips and dips in the interim the broad market average has gone nowhere.

[Fenix]

Tenga cuidado con el mercado de valores en enero

Martes, 29 de Diciembre del 2015 - 14:55:00

Desde la crisis financiera, las empresas del S&P 500 han gastado miles de millones de dólares en la recompra de sus propias acciones. En el tercer trimestre, estas empresas absorbieron 156 mil millones de dólares de sus propias acciones.

David Kostin, deGoldman Sachs, estima que estas empresas van a gastar otros 608 mil millones en el año 2016 en la recompra de acciones, frente a los 568 mil millones en 2015.


Es importante señalar que estas recompras - que son lo suficientemente enorme para influir en los mercados - no ocurren de manera uniforme a lo largo del año.

Por lo general, tenemos un gran viento a favor en diciembre.

A medida que los volúmenes disminuyen, el comportamiento del mercado parece más vulnerable a la estacionalidad de la actividad de la recompra de acciones.

Este viento a favor se desvanecerá rápidamente, ya que enero sólo contabiliza un 3% de las recompras totales.

[Fenix]

Treasury Curve Collapses To Flattest In 8 Years
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/29/2015 - 10:51

This was not supposed to happen. The spread between the 2Y Treasury yield (which is soaring 7bps today) and 10Y (higher by 3bps) has plunged back below 120bps. The current cliff-edge has been support for the curve four times in the last 8 years but with GC rates blowing out to 7 year highs, one wonders if the size of the moves means we break to new regime lows.


"2016 Will Be No Fun" - Doug Kass Unveils 15 Surprises For The Year Ahead
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/29/2015 - 11:36

My overriding theme and the central drama for the coming year is that unexpected events can take on greater importance as the Federal Reserve ends its near-decade-long Zero Interest Rate Policy. Consensus premises and forecasts will likely fall flat, in a rather spectacular manner. The low-conviction and directionless market that we saw in 2015 could become a no-conviction and very-much-directed market (i.e. one that's directed lower) in 2016. There will be no peace on earth in 2016, and our markets could lose a cushion of protection as valuations contract. (Just as "malinvestment" represented a key theme this year, we expect a compression of price-to-earnings ratios to serve as a big market driver in 2016.) In other words, we don't think 2016 will be fun.

[Fenix]

The Dark Side Of A Record $5 Trillion In Mergers: Hundreds Of Thousands Of Imminent Layoffs
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/29/2015 - 12:57

The winners from a $5 trillion M&A bubble: Wall Street bankers will make hundreds of millions in M&A fees. The losers: hundreds of thousands of workers who are about to be laid off, pardon, "synergized."

[Fenix]

Democratic Senator Calls For Extra Tax To Fund "War" Against ISIS
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/29/2015 - 14:31

"In March, I introduced a federal budget amendment that would impose a temporary surtax to pay for our military operations against ISIS. When the Senate reconvenes in 2016, I again plan to explore this option."


WTI Crude Surges Back To $38 Ahead Of API Data
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/29/2015 - 14:37

It appears $38 is the new strange attractor for WTI Crude oil as it coincides with the last two weeks' "opposites" inventory data releases. Brent and WTI continue to hug each other for the 3rd day in a row. We await tonight's API inventory data (expected to see a 2.5mm draw) for the next move in crude (and therefore US equities).

[Fenix]

Asia's Largest Commodity Trader Was Just Downgraded To Junk: Collateral Calls Next?
Submitted by Tyler D.
12/29/2015 - 14:52

"Moody's downgrades Noble Group to Ba1; outlook negative.... "The downgrade of Noble's ratings reflects Moody's concerns over the company's liquidity," says Joe Morrison, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer. The Ba1 ratings also reflect low levels of profitability and consistent negative free cash flow from core operating activities, which exclude proceeds from asset sales."



How to play into higher interest rates, an investment strategy with a hedge
Submitted by zenkick
12/29/2015 06:24 -0500

* Higher interest rates going through 2016 will have implications for most asset classes

* Past levels of Treasuries and how to play the move into new interest rate regime

* Assets that benefit from higher interest rates


Stock Markets might struggle

We can presume if job creation keeps staying above around 150k new jobs per month that the Fed will continue raising interest rates. That is the level the fed considers sufficient to cover new entries to the job market while actually adding jobs. This calculator allows you to see how many jobs are needed each month to maintain a given unemployment rate. The pace at which it hikes rates will depend heavily on job creation but also on how the stock market performs. The Fed, and Yellen in particular, do not want to be the ones that the public will blame for the next stock market crash.

A crash could happen if the Fed raises interest rates too quickly compared to the expansion of the economy. If the economy is not performing well enough it will be relatively more difficult for stock markets to gain higher ground. If interest rates move higher quickly enough, or rather the market has the perception that they are rising too fast, then we can certainly expect to see sharp declines in the broader stock market.

It might seem that the perfect play would be to sell S&P 500 futures and watch while the index falls. But what happens if it doesn’t? If the economy expands fast enough the broader stock market may not necessarily fall. Even if interest rates go up 1% over the course of 2016 we may still see a higher stock market by December. It makes more sense then to look at the Treasury yield curve and the expectations for next year.

Previous levels on Fed Fund rates and how to play the Treasury yield curve

Federal Reserve interest rates went up in the years leading up to the 2008 crisis. By July 2006 the Fed Fund rate was at 5.25%. The 10 year treasury yield remained between 4.50% and 5.25% for most of the following year. It started falling at the first signs of systematic break down in the Asset Backed Securities markets. This caused investors to exit those riskier assets for safer government bonds, therefore pushing down their yields.

10 year yields are around 2.40% as they are presumably already discounting further rises. But we are most likely to see Fed Fund interest rates rise much further especially if the economy holds on to its expansive phase. This means 10 year yields may also have much further to rise. In this scenario being short, or selling, 10 year treasuries may be a good hedge if rates rise further.

Looking at the 2 year treasury yield we see it’s currently around 1.04% but it was at the same levels as the 10 year yield back in 2006 and 2007. It would be reasonable to think it has even more room to increase as we move into 2016. Being short of 2 year treasuries may prove even more rewarding as it is even more likely to increase at a faster rate than the 10 year yield.

Another way to play into a higher interest rate regime is to put on a flattening curve trade. As we saw above the 2 year treasury yield is more likely to rise further and faster than the 10 year yield. So we want to sell 2 year treasuries. But we may be in danger of interest rates not going up or decreasing, to defend against that possibility we can buy 10 year treasuries.

Looking at the chart below we can see the small difference between 2 year and 10 year treasury yields when Fed Funds where at 5.25% between July 2006 and July 2007.


Source; US Dept. of the Treasury



The next chart shows how the difference between these two yields has acted over the past year. We can see that it is much greater with Fed Funds at much lower levels, 0.25% and now 0.50%, than it was when Fed Funds where at 5.25%. As interest rates go higher we should see the difference between these two yields shrink. That is to say the yield curve should flatten and the spread between the two yields diminish.


Source; US Dept. of the Treasury



Something to watch closely will be inflation; higher levels of inflation will make raising interest rates at a faster rate more likely. The Fed has a mandate to defend against crippling levels of inflation. This will lead therefore to higher interest rate levels and at a faster pace, if the economy continues to expand.



Assets that perform well with higher inflation

Inflation and higher interest rates are not a friend of stocks or bonds however they are a good friend to various commodities Gold in particular, but also other soft commodities which often make up elements of inflation baskets. Gold is seen as a safe haven against market stress and given the massive amounts certain countries are adding to their reserves it would seem that it continues to have a large attraction at all levels from investors and governments alike.

Private Equity is another type of security that may profit from higher interest rates, if the fund has the right type of investments. Certain types of infrastructure, like pay tolls, ports or utility companies often have their tariffs and fees linked to inflation. So a higher interest rate environment should lead to higher inflation and may benefit these types of operations. Not all Private Equity companies are private, there are a few that are listed on public exchanges.

Many are organized as Business Development Companies, and a bit like Mutual Funds, they have to pay out 90% of their profits in dividends to keep their tax benefits. There are around 200 publicly listed companies worldwide that invest in private equity. You can also find ETFs and Mutual Funds that invest in these assets. They also carry pretty much the same risk as other publicly traded stocks, in fact in the 2008 meltdown these stocks also performed badly as a class. But despite the high correlation to the broader stock market, a higher interest rate regime and consequently higher inflation, should favor these stocks over others.

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[Fenix]

The Catastrophic Threat of Bail-Ins
12/29/2015 12:17 -0500

The Catastrophic Threat of Bail-Ins

Written by Jeff Nielson


It has now been more than two and a half years since the Cyprus Steal, the first “bail-in” perpetrated in the Western world, occurred. Before reviewing the history of this newest financial atrocity, it is necessary to define the terms.

The term “bail-in” describes a scenario in which a bank confiscates private property to indemnify itself for losses it has suffered. A bail-in is a totally lawless theft of assets, as there is no principle of law (of any kind) that could authorize such a seizure of private property. And in fact, there are many principles of law that demonstrate the lawlessness at work here. As with much of the financial crime jargon, “bail-in” is simply another gibberish euphemism like “quantitative easing” or “derivatives.”

As custodians of the financial assets of their clients, banks represent a form of trustee. The purpose of any trust relationship is to provide absolute security to the beneficiary of the trust (i.e., the legal owner of the property). Thus, one of the most fundamental principles of our legal system is non-encroachment regarding the property held in the custody of a trustee.

From a legal standpoint, it is like there is an invisible and impenetrable wall that surrounds the trust property. The only exceptions to this wall (ever) occur when the trust beneficiary makes a legal request for some disbursement or related transaction, when the trust itself directs some form of action (in the interests of the trust beneficiary), or when the trust allows the trustee to manage the trust assets on behalf of the beneficiary.

The idea of trustees using assets for their own benefit or (worse) claiming ownership of any trust assets represents one of the most serious forms of financial crime in Western civilization. Given this context, how did the government of Cyprus respond when its own Big Banks whined and claimed that they “needed” to confiscate deposits in order to pay off their own gambling debts? It meekly rubber-stamped the lawless theft.

How did other Western governments react to the violation of one of the most sacred legal principles in our entire financial system? They simply nodded their heads in unison, and, as a single chorus, called the Cyprus Steal “a precedent” – a template for future systemic financial crime in their own regimes.

Beyond the perfect choreography demonstrated by Western governments immediately after this act of theft, how do we know that the Cyprus Steal was a scripted event orchestrated by the Big Banks? To begin with, all of the Big Money deposit holders in Cyprus had already moved their money out of Cyprus banksbefore the Big Banks began their pillaging and plundering. The “fix” was in.

Not a single Western government raised the slightest qualm about violating one of the most sacred principles of law in our legal system. Rather, these puppet regimes went about creating their own “rules” as to how/when the Big Banks would be allowed to steal property from the accounts of their own account holders. The Harper regime entrenched “the bail-in” in Canada’s official budget, while other puppet regimes were sneakier and more circumspect when “legalizing” this crime.

Here it is necessary to back up and address the “reason” (excuse) behind this newest form of systemic bank crime. The “bail-in” is the ultra-insane culmination of the “too big to fail” doctrine. By this doctrine, any and all assets, public or private, in our financial system can and will be sacrificed (stolen by the Big Banks) to prevent any of the Big Banks from “failing” – that is, going bankrupt as a consequence of their ownreckless gambling.

The legal and economic principles violated by the concept of “too big to fail” are too numerous to list. However, they begin with the following objections:

1) The concept of “too big to fail” is contrary to numerous tenets of capitalism. In any capitalist/free market system, insolvent entities are supposed to fail in order to correct the misallocation of assets. Any entity that grows to become an existential threat to the system is simply too big to exist.

2) Banks should never be allowed to gamble. Period. There would have been no need for the $10’s of trillionsin “bail-outs” given to this crime syndicate following the Crash of ’08 if our puppet governments had not previously erased our laws that prevented such gambling.

3) “Too big to fail” is based on an overtly criminal premise called systemic blackmail: “Give us everything we demand, or we’ll blow up the financial system.” It is extortion in perpetuity: financial slavery.

Note how (2) and (3) relate directly back to (1). Why shouldn’t banks gamble with their clients’ assets? Because by doing so they not only jeopardize the property they are holding in trust but also become a threat to the financial system. Why shouldn’t financial entities be allowed to grow so big they become an existential threat to the system? Because size (as we now see) gives these Big Banks the leveragenecessary to blackmail our corrupt, limp-wristed governments, perpetually.

So what is the only possible way to put an end to this Big Bank blackmail? Well, should our corrupt governments ever decide to once again enforce our anti-trust laws , we can end the cycle by smashing these Big Banks “down to size,” or down to the largest size allowed by law . Indeed, “too big to fail” is the ultimate example of why we need anti-trust laws and why they need to be vigorously enforced.

Anti-trust laws are anti-corruption laws. For decades, there has been almost no enforcement of our anti-corruption laws. The result is a global economy now almost totally dominated by just one of the major (and illegal) oligopolies that has emerged: the crime syndicate readers know as the One Bank.

It is this crime syndicate that engages in the systemic blackmail of “too big to fail,” supposedly to indemnify its Big Bank tentacles for the losses they incur. However, in almost every case, these “losses” are nothing but an accounting sham: paper losses owed by one Big Bank tentacle to another. No entity could ever be bankrupted by a “debt” owed to its right hand by its left.

The “losses” do not even exist, but the blackmail and fraud is all too real. Having totally depleted the public treasuries of most Western nations with its “bail-out” extortion following the Crash of ’08, the One Bank needed a new mechanism of theft by which to continue its permanent, institutionalized blackmail.

The bankers demanded that they be allowed to steal private assets (already in their custody), directly, any time they claimed to suffer a “substantial loss.” Our puppet governments, as usual, caved to the crime syndicate’s demands, and the “bail-in” was born.

What is at risk with a “bail-in?” According to the (perversely named) Financial Stability Board: any and every paper asset in the custody of the Big Banks and (potentially) any paper asset in the custody/control of our governments. The Financial Stability Board is one of the propaganda mouthpieces of the Big Bank crime syndicate, and its “guidelines” have been directly cited as authority by several of these puppet regimes, including the Canadian goverment.

How do people protect themselves from the massive bail-ins that are imminent as the Next Crashapproaches? There is only one way: get your assets (i.e., your wealth) out of all paper instruments. This includes the fraudulent paper currencies of our fiat-currency/ fractional-reserve Ponzi scheme system. Hold only enough wealth in paper instruments to satisfy current cash-flow requirements and short-term “emergencies.”

For the longer term financial Armageddon that is now inevitable, the only secure form of wealth-preservation is the oldest-and-surest tool for that task: precious metals. Rather than offering holders short- or medium-term protection for their wealth, gold and silver represent lifetime security, what people are supposed to have, and what most people still think they have when they entrust their wealth to a bank.


Once upon a time, we had strong, vigorously enforced laws that made a bank the safest place to store paper assets. That is no longer. Now banks are where your wealth is most likely to be stolen – and by the bank itself. Thanks to the bail-in, the term “bank robbery” now has an entirely different meaning.

[Fenix]

15:27 Nasdaq Composite. Posiciones largas con stop bajo 5024.18 o 4997.72
El escenario técnico del Nasdaq presenta soporte en la zona cercana de los 5026.573 puntos. La estructura actual sugiere utilizar dicho nivel como zona de stop loss asociado en las posiciones largas.

Dichas posiciones tendrían objetivos de revalorización en la zona de 5068.77 en primera instancia, y, posteriormente, en cotas de 5069.31 y 5111.51 puntos.

Resistencias 5.055,14 5.069,31
Soportes 5.024,18 5.012,94

[Fenix]

Marc Faber vs. Yellen: Recesión o Crecimiento

Martes, 29 de Diciembre del 2015 - 15:52:00

Marc Faber recomienda bonos del Tesoro de Estados Unidos y dice que EE.UU. está en el inicio de una recesión económica, enfrentándose así con la visión de la presidenta de la Reserva Federal Janet Yellen de que las cosas están mejorando.

"Los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años son muy atractivos debido a mi visión de un debilitamiento de la economía", dijo Faber, el editor del Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, en una entrevista con Bloomberg. "Creo que ya estamos entrando en una recesión en los Estados Unidos" y las acciones de Estados Unidos caerán en 2016, dijo.


Yellen elevó las tasas de interés este mes por primera vez en casi una década, y dijo que los estadounidenses deben tomar esa decisión como una señal de confianza en la economía estadounidense. Los analistas difieren sobre si la decisión de la Fed de aumentar su tipo de referencia llegó en el momento adecuado, porque la tasa de inflación se ha quedado atascada cerca de cero incluso cuando se está expandiendo el producto interior bruto.

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