por admin » Dom Oct 24, 2010 8:10 pm
Las fabricas Japonesas estan mandando trabajo fuera de Japon debido al alza del yen.
Las fabricas desde fabricantes de autos hasta fabricantes de electronicos en Japon estan haciendo sus productos fuera de Japon.
Japan Firms Send Work Overseas
As Yen Strengthens, Exporters Shift Production to Other Nations
By MARIKO SANCHANTA
TOKYO—Japanese businesses ranging from auto makers to electronics companies are transferring more of their manufacturing abroad, as the yen's flirtation with a new high against the dollar hastens a major restructuring of Japan's economy.
The transfers are shielding the country's export-driven companies from the pain of a sharply stronger yen, which makes Japanese goods more costly and less competitive in global markets.
But they also threaten the Japanese government's efforts to sustain economic growth and spotlight its failure to curb Japan's dependence on exports—which account for two-third of its growth—despite three decades of political rhetoric about the need to generate more domestic demand.
Toyota Motor Corp., which is sticking to a strong profit forecast for its current fiscal year ending March 31, despite the yen's rise, is on track to produce 57% of its output abroad this year, up from 48% five years ago. Just last week, the world's leading auto maker by production said it will begin making its popular Prius at a plant near Bangkok, marking the first time its flagship hybrid will be mass-produced outside Japan.
Rival Nissan Motor Co. will make about 71% of its cars abroad this year, compared with 66% last year. This summer Nissan became the first Japanese auto maker to mass-market a foreign-made car in Japan, importing the compact March, which it produces in Thailand.
"I can guarantee you we will increase capacity in Korea," Nissan Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn said a few months ago at a news conference during a visit to Abu Dhabi. Mr. Ghosn said Japanese companies have to adapt to the surging yen by "sourcing more and more products outside Japan—there's no [other] way to compete."
Murata Manufacturing Co., a maker of electronic components, aims to double its foreign output to about 30% by the fiscal year ending in March 2013. Fellow electronics maker Canon Inc., which bought Dutch printer maker Oce NV in March, saw its overseas production hit a new high for the company of 48% in the first half of 2010.
In an August survey by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, 40% of the country's manufacturers said they would shift production and research-and-development operations abroad if the yen remained at 85 to the dollar. It has since strengthened beyond that.
In the April-June quarter, the dollar fell 5.3% against the yen, dropping from around 93.50 yen at the start of the quarter to around 88.50 yen on June 30. It rallied further over the summer and, at 81.36 in late New York trading Friday, was close to its all-time peak of 79.75 yen to the dollar, reached in 1995.
During the April-through-June quarter, Sony Corp.'s embattled television business showed a profit after six straight years of losses, at least partly because of more production overseas. The consumer-electronics giant did 20% of its manufacturing abroad in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2010, and is aiming for 50% this fiscal year.
Helped by similar strategies, 24% of companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange have lifted their pretax profit forecasts for the first half of their current fiscal year, according to Mizuho Securities Research & Consulting Co., while only 3% have lowered them.
At least in the near term, moving manufacturing jobs abroad erodes the boost exports give the Japanese economy and also hurts efforts to get the country's consumers to spend.
In July, 10.3 million Japanese workers were involved in manufacturing, the lowest number since the government began calculating the monthly figures in 2002, when there were more than 12 million manufacturing workers. The country's unemployment rate remains above 5%, but is down slightly from a postwar high of 5.6% set last year.
Capital spending by the overseas units of Japanese companies rose 8.2% on the year to $4.7 billion in the April-June quarter, the first increase in six quarters, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, while their spending at home fell 1.7%.
"The yen's appreciation is accelerating the process of production outflow," says Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. "Investment-wise, Manufacturers don't have an incentive to invest in Japan."
The shift of manufacturing abroad helps explain why Tokyo politicians feel less pressure than in the past to damp the yen's rise. Though Japanese companies have complained about the strong currency, "This time around, the complaints aren't as loud. Fifteen years ago, they were much louder," says Tohru Sasaki, head of foreign-exchange research at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo.
The difference highlights problems on the domestic front. More than a decade of entrenched deflation has made Japanese consumers reluctant to spend, because of expectations that prices will decline even further. Economists say the new government's $62 billion fiscal-stimulus package, designed to jump-start domestic demand, consists largely of pork-barrel public-works project spending.
Unless the country makes further structural reforms, such as lowering the corporate tax rate or loosening its strict immigration policy, exports seem destined to remain the main engine of growth.
"There are worries about the economy—domestic demand will not pick up, especially with the population declining and a greater proportion of retirees eating into their savings. It's a gloomy outlook for household income," says Credit Suisse's Mr. Shirakawa. "Domestic investment and consumption will continue to shrink."
Mr. Sasaki points out that while the current yen-dollar exchange rate looks alarming, in inflation-adjusted terms, the yen is about 30% below the high point it hit in April 1995. The reason: since 1990, U.S. consumer prices have risen by 69.5%, while in Japan prices have increased just 8.5%. Taking inflation into account the April 1995 yen/dollar exchange rate of 79.75 yen would be equivalent today to 56 yen to the dollar.
Japanese exporters are also helped by the fact a growing part of their trade with Asia, including China, Japan's largest trading partner, is denominated in yen, not dollars. Data from Japan's Ministry of Finance showed 48% of exports to Asia were paid for in yen in 2009. Only 1.7% of Japanese exports to Asia last year were paid for in local currencies, and just over 50% in dollars.
Japan's growing trade and corporate ties with the rest of Asia have caused its politicians to speak out more forcefully against the weakness of China's yuan and the South Korean won.
"The U.S. dollar is still the most important currency to Japan, but its impact has been lessening over the years. Now that Korea is competing head-to-head with Japan in the U.S. market, it's the second-most important currency to Tokyo," says John Vail, chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management Co.