Miercoles 26/01/16 La decision del Fed

[Fenix]

Reserva Federal mantiene sin cambios tasa de interés de referencia

Washington, 27 ene (EFECOM).- La Reserva Federal (Fed) dejó hoy sin cambios los tipos de interés de referencia, entre el 0,25 % y el 0,50 %, al asegurar que el crecimiento económico se ha mantenido de manera "moderada" en EE.UU. y la inflación seguirá baja "en el corto plazo".

En el comunicado al cierre de su reunión de dos días sobre política monetaria, la Fed destacó, además, que espera que "la inflación se mantenga baja en el corto plazo, en parte debido a mayores descensos en los precios de la energía", y lejos aún del objetivo del 2 % a medio plazo marcado.

En su anterior reunión en diciembre, el banco central había calificado el crecimiento de "sólido", por lo que el cambio de lenguaje ahora supone un reconocimiento de la ralentización económica.

Sobre la evolución de los tipos de interés, que elevó en diciembre por vez primera desde 2006, el Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto (FOMC, en inglés) de la Fed reiteró que "espera que las condiciones económicas evolucionen de forma que exija solo incrementos graduales".

El organismo dirigido por Janet Yellen evitó dar referencias concretas a la reciente volatilidad registrada en los mercados tanto en EE.UU. como en China, aunque indicó que "está vigilando de cerca los acontecimientos económicos y financieros globales".

La votación sobre el comunicado se saldó de manera unánime con 10 votos a favor y ninguno en contra. EFECOM

Publicado el Miércoles, 27 de Enero del 2016


Bill Ackman Blames Abysmal Performance On Hedge Fund Groupthink
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/27/2016 - 07:21

"While it is impossible to know for sure, we believe that our continued negative outperformance in the first few weeks of the year relates primarily to forced selling of our holdings by investors whose stakes overlap with our own."


7:42 The World’s Favorite New Tax Haven Is the United States (BBG)


"No Brainer" Apple Extends Losses Despite Analyst Pleas That Guidance "Better Than Feared"
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/27/2016 - 08:15

Apple's guidance was considerably worse than expected, but always spinning positively, analysts proclaim somehows that it was "better than feared." It appears not as AAPL is now down almost 4% despite every sell-side analyst's pleas that "the bottom is in." The ultimate "no brainer" stock is now down over 28% from its highs last year and analyst targets are still at $137 on average - a nearly 50% gain from here. And finally, as if a crashing stock was not enough, Apple's Safari browser is reportedly crashing if users attempt to search - not a great day for Tim Cook.


Italian Banks Sink As "Bad Bank" Plan Underwhelms
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/27/2016 - 08:27

Last week, we noted that Italy is rushing to defuse a €200 billion time bomb in the country’s banking sector as investors fret over banks’ exposure to souring loans. On Wednesday we learn that Italy has indeed managed to strike a deal with Brussels to help alleviate banks’ NPL burden but the agreement falls well short of the type of comprehensive "solution" the market was hoping to see.


Downgrades Next?
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/27/2016 - 08:38

With analyst expectations almost 50% above Apple's current price, and only 1 "sell" recommendation among the 52 analysts covering the "no brainer" stock, one has to wonder how long it will be before the 45 "Buys" downgrade their permabullish perspective...



Gold Stocks Are At A Key Juncture
01/27/2016 - 09:15
Via Dana Lyons Tumblr,

Gold stocks are testing the level of their recent breakdown to all-time lows; will it be a false breakdown, or the start of a new leg down?

Back on January 14, our Chart Of The Day highlighted the fact that gold stocks had fallen to their lowest levels…as in, ever. At least as measured by the PHLX Gold/Silver Index, better known as the XAU. The prior low in the index going back to its 1983 inception had been 41.85 in November 2000. On January 14, it eclipsed that level, closing at 41.52. In subsequent days, the XAU fell as low as 38.36 on January 19. Presently, however, the index has rallied back to test the aforementioned breakdown level. This looks to be a key juncture here for the gold bugs and the, er, gold exterminators?

image


The bullish scenario would have the XAU break back above the breakdown level and, preferably, back above the short-term tops in December and early January near 49-50. If the index can accomplish this in very short order, it would set up a classic “false breakdown” scenario. That is, a breakdown to new lows that is quickly reversed back above the breakdown level. These setups can lead to explosive and durable rallies as sellers cannot demonstrate the ability to keep prices down at new low levels. In this instance, considering we are talking about “all-time” lows, the pattern could be even that much more significant. And it could lead to the type of rally that gold bugs have been waiting a looong time for.

However, the bearish scenario remains the default option until proven otherwise. The sector remains in a downtrend (not a news flash), and just off of all-time lows. It is also brushing up against, but has not yet broken through, the level marking the former all-time lows. That is formidable resistance. Furthermore, the XAU is arguably forming a “bear flag” pattern over the past week or so. This is a counter-trend pattern in a downtrend whereby prices move higher in a relatively shallow ascent. Ultimately, these patterns typically lead to another extension of the downtrend, to or beyond the prior lows. Now, the acceleration of the past two days may have some doubt this interpretation of a bear flag. However, in our view, it is still too early to make the determination, especially if the index reverses today’s gains in a rapid manner.

So the jury is still out on this development for gold stocks. The result of the current test of former all-time lows could very well lead to an out-sized move, either way. You may call it a coin flip. We would call it a very bearish setup – at the moment – with the potential to develop into a very bullish setup. As always, we’ll let prices tell us what to do.

[Fenix]

New Home Sales Spike To 8 Year Highs, Prices Tumble To 7-Month Lows
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/27/2016 - 10:07

Following existing home sales post-regs change spike, new home sales (after 9 months of missed expectations) soared 10.8% in December to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 544k (smashing expectations of just 500k). This is 1k short of the February 545k highs going back to Feb 2008. Median home prices dropped however (a good thing for affordability but not so much for The Fed's wealth illusion machine) to the lowest since May.


Stocks Storm Green, Oil Surges After Russia Says Will Discuss "Possible Production Cuts With OPEC"
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/27/2016 - 11:47

For those wondering what matters in this market, here is the answer: moments ago US stocks stormed into the green, following oil which after some confusion after today's massive DOE inventory build, has surged back over $32, one just one piece of news: moments ago both Reuters and Bloomberg cited the CEO of Russia's Transneft, who said that Russia and OPEC will discuss possible output cuts: BREAKING: Russia's Transneft says Russia and OPEC will discuss possible output cuts -TASS; RUSSIA TO DISCUSS OIL OUTPUT LEVELS W/ OPEC: TOKAREV


US Economy: On A Knife's Edge
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/27/2016 - 12:45

We may not yet have final confirmation that a recession is imminent, but so far nothing suggests that the danger has receded.


Market Reaction To "Not Dovish Enough Statement" - Disappointment
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/27/2016 - 14:14

Fed Funds futures now imply the next rate hike will not occur until at least H2 2016 and this level of fear about the economy appears to have spooked stocks and crude and put a bid under bonds and bullion... VIX is chaos as the machines try desperately to get stocks higher...


Cupertino, We Have A Problem: China's JD.Com Just Cut Prices On Apple Products By 17%
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/27/2016 - 14:53

JD.com cut prices of Apple products on the internet marketplace by as much as 17%, according to information on the JD website. Customers can also purchase Apple products in 12 monthly installments with no interest charges and no downpayment." Among the discounts, iPad Air tablet with 16GB memory is priced at CNY 2,399 (USD 365), compared with CNY 2,888 on the Apple online store in China. The iPhone 6s Plus handset with 64GB memory is priced at CNY 6,288, compared with the official price of CNY 6,888.


US, Britain, France Ready Military Action In Libya As ISIS Closes In On Country's Oil
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/27/2016 - 15:01

Washington's individual efforts to meddle in Mid-East affairs have now seemingly all melded into one giant, bloody melee and incredibly, America's solution is to go right back in and meddle some more. What could possibly go wrong?

[Fenix]

Wall Street Economists React To The Fed's Statement
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/27/2016 15:34 -0500

After the Fed's statement, one thing was clear: the career economists at the Marriner Eccles building are very confused, admitting to hiking rates for the first time in nine years "even as economic growth slowed late last year". But more confused are the Wall Street economists who follow the Fed and are expected to interpret what the Fed says, means and hints, especially when said Fed has no clue what is going on, like right now - the same people who a month ago said, for example, predicted that a rate hike was bullish; the same people who blamed the economic slowdown in the winter of 2014/2015 due to China on... snow in the winter.

So while their opinions are utterly worthless, for the record, here is what the economisseds see in today's 558 words of sheer Fed confusion:



"The statement following today’s FOMC meeting acknowledged the recent tightening of financial conditions and risks from international developments, and noted that these factors could affect the risks around the outlook. Assuming a modest improvement in financial market conditions, we expect the committee to follow through with a rate hike in March."

- Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs



"When it comes to the statement, what's most obvious is the absence of content, not the presence. Nowhere did Yellen & Co. reference 'market volatility,' a euphemism for the global equity declines experienced in 2016....There's only one thing to learn from this barrel-of-oil-sized hole in the rather terse [Federal Open Market Committee] statement: March depends on job markets (still running strong) and inflation theory (no data, but the Fed believes)."

- Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott



"The first line of the statement leads with 'labor market conditions improved further even as economic growth slowed late last year,' a clear reminder of what drives the Fed at this stage in the cycle. Yes, they have to watch market and global developments, but when wages are beginning to accelerate and the Fed expects 'some additional decline in underutilization of labor resources,' following 'strong job gains,' it is clear that the bar for market turmoil to deflect them from 'gradual' tightening has been raised."

- Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics



"Policy makers are indicating that it is too soon to gauge the impact from the sharp fall in global equity and oil prices and because of that they are not prepared to offer an assessment on the risks to the economic outlook, labor markets and inflation. Clearly by not offering a risk assessment on the outlook the FOMC is indicating that at this time there is a low probability of them raising official rates at the March meeting. " -

- Joseph Carson, AllianceBernstein



"The FOMC statement was reworded to signal increased concern about 'global economic and financial developments,' but, overall, the tweaks to the statement were limited enough to be consistent with no major change yet to the policy outlook. In the end, decisions will depend on the data and market developments."

- Jim O'Sullivan, High Frequency Economics



" The statement highlighted the potential downside risks from what is transpiring in global financial markets and in many economies around the world....This replaced previously used phrasing stating a belief that the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market were balanced even taking into account domestic and international developments. All in all, the relevant changes to the policy statement tilt in the dovish direction, consistent with our forecast of just two additional tightening moves this year."

- Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc.



"It seems clear to me that the Fed is shading the economic risk to the downside. I’m reading this a touch more dovishly than the market appears to be. “Big takeaway” is FOMC’s description of slower economic growth in late 2015, near-term inflation remaining low. Statement was “negative” on economic growth, yet “not so much as to signal greater accommodation ahead”

- B. Hunter Hill , SunTrust Robinson Humphrey



"We find ourselves in the odd position that the Fed is almost certain to hike if markets stabilize in the next month and half, but might not hike if markets continue to slide"

- Chris Low, FTN



Two important changes in statement were acknowledgment that FOMC is “closely monitoring” global economic, financial developments and disappearance of sentence that said FOMC “reasonably confident” inflation will rise to objective.Omission of “reasonably confident” sentence doesn’t mean FOMC thinks it won’t hit inflation target but it not longer wants to “pound the table." FOMC has backed off a little on how confident it is with regard to inflation and the ability of economy to weather global headwinds

- Ethan Harris, Bank of America

* * *

However, without doubt the best comment of the day was this one:

The Fed has signaled they have started the year even more clueless as to what is happening than last year...YOU SHOULD BE SCARED...

Source: Dow Jones, Bloomberg


With 1.6 Billion Monthly Active Users, Here Is Facebook's Quarter And Year In Charts
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/27/2016 - 16:42

In an otherwise dreary manufacturing recession landscape, one in which even the services sector is getting increasingly more troubled by the day, and where nothing the Fed says or does can keep animal spirits inflated, there was one ray of light: the one company that benefits from over a billion people posting pictures of their dogs or stalking their significant other's best friend: Facebook.


Is China About To Drop A Devaluation Bomb?
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/27/2016 - 17:15

In concert with denial and obfuscation, pride and hubris may be clouding the image the Chinese have of themselves and their economy. What they are trying very hard NOT to communicate is how much pain their Ponzi debt burden has put them in. It’s not even fully clear to what extent Xi himself is aware of this, but he knows at least enough to keep his mouth shut on the topic. It’s quite possible that some of his top aides dare not reveal the real tally to their boss for fear of their jobs and heads. Beijing might solve some of these problems by devaluing the yuan by 30%, or even 50%, but it would invite a large amount of other problems in the door if it did. Like a full-blown currency war. Still, it’s just a matter of time till Xi and Li either do it voluntarily or are forced to by ‘the market’.


"Let Them Eat CaQE": Yellen Abandons Markets; Stocks Plunge
Submitted by Tyler D.
on 01/27/2016 - 17:33




China Says Soros "Hasn't Done His Homework," May Be "Partially Blind"
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/27/2016 18:30 -0500

On Tuesday, the People’s Daily laughed at George Soros.

Literally.

On the heels of comments Soros made in Davos last week about China’s “hard landing,” the Party mouthpiece ran an "op-ed" that carried the title “Declaring War On China’s Currency? Ha, Ha.”

It’s not clear that George Soros intends to “declare war” on the RMB. However, he did say he was betting against Asian currencies and because his reputation precedes him when it comes to breaking central banks, the Chinese apparently wanted to get out ahead of what the PBoC assumes will be an attack on the yuan. “Given how people know Soros and what he did in 1992 and during the 1997-1998 Asian crisis, he’s too important to ignore, so China felt that they had to counter any negative comments,” Tommy Xie, a Singapore-based economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking told Bloomberg.“They have to reassure local savers and show them a willingness that the government is looking after them and their savings.”

“Soros’s war on the renminbi and the Hong Kong dollar cannot possibly succeed — about this there can be no doubt,” the People’s Daily continued, before calling the aging billionaire a “crocodile” and a “predator.”

As we noted yesterday, “China won't be able to arrest Soros and beat a confession out of him like Beijing is fond of doing to others suspected of launching ‘malicious’ short attacks, but the brash commentary does indicate that Chinese authorities are becoming increasingly sensitive to suggestions that a steeper RMB devaluation is a foregone conclusion.”

Of course a steeper RMB depreciation is a foregone conclusion because as we’ve outlined on several occasions, the days of China sitting idly by while the dollar peg saps the country’s export competitiveness are long gone and Beijing now seems determined not only to participate in the ongoing global currency wars, but in fact to win.

But China is keen on orchestrating a controlled depreciation (despite the fact that getting it over with at once might be the better option if Beijing wants to limit capital flight) which means keeping hold of the narrative and using the captive Chinese media to fight back against those who, like the “crocodile” Soros, would seek to employ “malicious” tactics to spark a panic.

Against this backdrop we get another hilarious “commentary” piece out of the Politburo on Wednesday, this time via Xinhua. The piece, presented in its entirety below, explains why Soros and the ubiquitous “short-sellers” “make claims that run counter to reality.”

* * *

From Xinhua

China has ample reasons to stay confident in face of speculators. Far from some speculators' claims, China is not a source of trouble but an important engine of global economic growth with its growing demand and investment.

Here are the numbers. China registered a growth rate of 6.9 percent last year amid a sluggish global economy, contributing more than 25 percent of global economic growth.

Chinese tourists spent 1.2 trillion yuan (182.4 billion U.S. dollars) overseas, while the country's investors pumped 735 billion yuan (111.7 billion dollars) into other economies.

Speculators claimed they see a hard landing for China. It is true that the growth of the world's second largest economy is experiencing a relative slowdown compared with the blistering growth of the past decade. But as we know, decision makers have now opted for a slower pace in order to make the country's growth more sustainable in the future.

Moreover, a growth rate of 6.9 percent is the envy of most other economies. China's added economic output last year was more than the GDP of Sweden or Argentina.

George Soros, who recently claimed he saw a hard landing for China at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, has made the same prediction several times in the past.

It's an exaggeration to say that China increases global deflationary risks. Imagine the world without the demand and growth from China, global economic growth would have been much worse, possibly at higher risk of deflation.

The world economy is having trouble because of the sluggish growth and slow recovery of many economies. International investor Jim Rogers said recently that the monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the expansion of government debt are the original sources of the problems.

Meanwhile, China's economic transformation is currently underway.

Figures show that foreign investment in China's service sector saw robust growth in 2016, and the country attracted 136 billion U.S. dollars of foreign direct investment.

Thanks to government policies encouraging innovation and the streamlining of procedures, entrepreneurship is flourishing and bringing fundamental change to Chinese society. In the first half of 2015, the number of newly registered businesses exceeded 10,000 on a daily basis.

Employment creation is strong too, which, coupled with a sound growth rate and strong capital formation and innovation, means that the world's second largest economy is unlikely to experience a hard landing.

So why do speculators make claims that run counter to reality? Analysts said it is because either the short-sellers haven't done their homework or that they are intentionally trying to create panic to snap profits.

* * *

Yes, "analysts" say Soros hasn't done his "homework" and just wants to "create panic" on the way to "snapping profits." Xinhua also says Soros' views may indicate he's "partially" blind.

Unfortunately for the Chinese, Soros probably has "done his homework" and his claims do not "run counter to reality." The "reality" here is that China's economy is decelerating and in all likelihood, the yuan will continue to move lower as the currency shoulders the burden of the hard landing.

This won't be the first time Soros squares off against Asian officials over flagging currencies. As Bloomberg also points out, former Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamad (known as the founding father of modern Malaysia) once called the billionaire a "moron" for helping to trigger the ringgit's collapse.

So strap in, because the PBoC is in for a bumpy ride in 2016 as everyone from domestic depositors to nefarious, predatory, "speculators" bets on continued yuan weakness.

We close with a quote from Michael Every, head of financial markets research at Rabobank in Hong Kong:

“They can write as many op-eds as they want, but two plus two doesn’t make five."

[Fenix]

Brazil's Easy-Money Problem
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/27/2016 - 18:55

Brazil’s current crisis is nothing but an outcome of government’s meddling with the market. The scenario of the country’s economy is indeed scary, but we have reason to believe that Brazil’s intellectual situation is going through a new and promising change. It may be true, as Lord Keynes said, that “in the long run we are all dead,” but if we are to get out of this terrible crisis, to prosper and to enjoy a constant improvement in our standard of living, “it is high time to transform the country’s state capitalism into a free market system.”



Buy “Physical Gold” Coins and Bars – Bloomberg Interview GoldCore
Submitted by GoldCore on 01/27/2016 11:39 -0500

Buy “Physical Gold” Coins and Bars – Bloomberg Interview GoldCore

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Gold: the 3,000 year old “fashion” is back in favour
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Rising interest rates – when happen – are positive for gold
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This seen in data, charts – 2003 to 2006 period and 1970s
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Given risks today – higher allocations of as much as 30% are merited
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Important to own “physical gold” coins and bars in safest vaults in world
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Important to own physical due to increasing likelihood of COMEX default

goldcore_bloomberg_January_2016

GoldCore discussed the outlook for gold on “Bloomberg Markets” yesterday with Matt Miller and Mark Barton and the interview can be watched here.

LBMA Gold Prices

27 Jan: USD 1,116.50, EUR 1,027.14 and GBP 781.04 per ounce
26 Jan: USD 1,114.70, EUR 1,028.42 and GBP 785.80 per ounce
25 Jan: USD 1,103.70, EUR 1,020.29 and GBP 773.96 per ounce
22 Jan: USD 1,097.65, EUR 1,012.55 and GBP 769.63 per ounce
21 Jan: USD 1,096.80, EUR 1,006.98 and GBP 774.99 per ounce

Breaking Gold and Silver News Today

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Ganancias del BCP se incrementaron en 46,5% durante el 2015

Ganancias del BCP se incrementaron en 46,5% durante el 2015
Las ganancias del BCP y subsidiarias durante el 2015 se incrementaron en 46,5%, al registrar una utilidad neta de S/ 2.797 millones, frente a los S/ 1,909 millones del cierre del año anterior.

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En el informe enviado a la Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores (SMV), el BCP indicó que este resultado se explica por varios factores: uno de ellos fue el incremento de un 10,2% de sus ingresos por comisiones por servicios bancarios, resultado de un mayor nivel transaccional por transferencias, tarjetas de crédito y cobranzas de letras y facturas.

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También hubo aumento en la ganancia neta en venta de valores respecto al 2014 por la venta del 100% de acciones que mantenía Inversiones BCP Chile (subsidiaria de BCP) en BCI a Credicorp. Esta transacción que se realizó en enero del 2015 por s/ 338 millones.

Además de registrar mayores ingresos por intereses netos (+16,1%), más de S/6.945 millones, frente a los S/5981 millones del 2014. Se debe señalar que estas ganancias incluyen al BCP y sus subsidiarias: BCP Bolivia y MiBanco.

COLOCACIONES Y DEPÓSITOS

Las colocaciones del BCP y sus subsidiarias cerraron el 2015 con un avance de 13,6% frente al cierre del 2014, al alcanzar la cifra de S/.88.040 millones.

Ganancias del BCP se incrementaron en 46,5% durante el 2015
Asimismo, los depósitos también tuvieron un importante incremento: 18,3%. Al pasar de S/72.863 millones a S/86.169 millones.

"Según estadísticas de la SBS incluyendo operaciones de sucursales en el exterior, al cierre de nooviembre del 2015, el BCP (sin consolidar subsidiarias) continúa mostrando su tradicional liderazgo del sistema bancario, manteniendo el 33.6% del total de colocaciones y el 33.7% en depósitos, participaciones de mercado superiores al de su más cercano competidor, con 21.7% y 22.2% en colocaciones y depósitos, respectivamente", indicó la firma.

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