Old News Is Good News - Crude Jumps On Repeat Russia-OPEC Headline, Stocks Shrug
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 08:18
Just when you want that 100% correlation with crude to lift stocks from their post-Fed quagmire, it breaks down. Just as WTI was breaking back red this morning, Interfax headlines hit that confirmed Russia and OPEC in talks for a potential production cut and sure enough old news is good news and WTI ramped back up towards $33. The problem is... higher oil is no longer great news for stocks (for now)...
Muchos retos aún pendientes para Irán
Jueves, 28 de Enero del 2016 - 7:52:11
Según Reuters, Azerbaijan podría haber pedido 4 bn. $ en ayuda al FMI y al BM. Si se confirma, sería el primer país productor de crudo que admite la necesidad de ayuda ante la caída de los ingresos del petróleo. ¿Habrá más? No, no sería el caso de Irán.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has made progress in improving macroeconomic conditions in a difficult economic environment, said the IMF in its health check of the economy published in December 2015. But challenges continue to lie ahead for the country in light of the recent lifting of economic sanctions.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sur ... 12016A.htm
En definitiva....
1. La retirada de sanciones bajo un escenario de medidas "adecuadas" pueden mejorar las condiciones económicas
2. Pero el descenso de los precios del crudo supone una amenaza económica a corto plazo
3. Son necesarias reformas para fortalecer la economía, aumentar el empleo y reducir la inflación
El FMI espera que la economía de Irán desacelere con fuerza su ritmo de crecimiento desde el 3 % estimado entre 2014/2015 hasta medio punto este año. Si la construcción y el sector manufacturero fueron los motores de crecimiento en los últimos años, ahora es la cautela de los agentes (inversión y consumo) las que impiden que la recuperación se prolongue.
¿Cautela sobre qué? De hecho, en menor medida a la evolución de los precios del crudo. Pero, mucho más importante ahora es el Proceso que puede seguir el levantamiento de las sanciones al país tras el acuerdo internacional alcanzado a mediados del año pasado. En el mejor de los escenarios (más ingresos de la venta de crudo, costes financieros a la baja y mayor confianza internacional), se espera que el ritmo de crecimiento se acelere en los próximos años hasta niveles de 4-5.5 %.
Hay dos demandas importantes desde el FMI a las autoridades del país. La primera, reducir y estabilizar la inflación más allá del esperado efecto beneficioso a corto plazo de la apreciación de la moneda. Piden dar más poderes al banco central, aumentar su independencia, a la hora de gestionar la estabilidad de los precios que ayude a la propia estabilidad económica. Por otro lado, seguir con los ajustes fiscales a corto plazo (reducir subsidios de precios) y plantear una estrategia a medio plazo fiscal.
El FMI también pide reformas para incrementar productividad, atrayendo tecnología exterior y aumentando la flexibildiad de la producción. Y sobre el sector financiero. Pero de todo esto seguiremos hablando en el futuro próximo....
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
This Trend Is Not Your Friend - Initial Jobless Claims Average Surges To 10-Month Highs
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 08:36
Having surged to six-month highs, initial jobless claims dropped modestly on the week but the smoother 4-week average that is broadly used pushed to new cycle highs at 285k - the highest since March 2015 confirming The Fed's concerns over the economy. This is a trend that is certainly not the friend of Janet and her friends... but we are sure this is all just transitory.
Durable Goods Devastation: Capital Goods Orders Crash To Fresh Crisis Lows, Scream Recession
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 08:44
Durable Goods Orders crashed 5.1% MoM and turned back negative YoY and ex-transports continues to deteriorate YoY flashing if nothing else a recessionary environment is upon us (if not an actual recession). However, it is in the core - non-defense ex-aircraaft - segemnt that we see the real bloodbath as shipments plunged and new orders collapsed 7.5% YoY - the "worst since Lehman." Of course we still have bartenders and waitresses to maintain the US economy so this is just transitory weakness in the stock market's most-dependent segment of the economy.
8:45 Sudáfrica eleva la tasa de interés clave al 6,75%
En una medida ampliamente esperada, el banco central de Sudáfrica elevó su tasa de interés clave para detener la caída libre de su moneda y la alta inflación.
El comité de política monetaria elevó la tasa de recompra en medio punto porcentual al 6,75 por ciento, su segunda alza consecutiva.
9:36 Se dispara el precio del petróleo ante una potencial reducción de la producción
Los prcios del petróleo suben con fuerza después de las informaciones que señalan que Arabia Saudita han sugerido que cada país reduzca la producción de petróleo.
Esta noticia tiene especial importancia dado que Arabia Saudita se ha opuesto a realizar cualquier recorte de producción de petróleo con el fin de mantener la cuota de mercado.
El Brent sube un 5,5% a 35,73 dólares. Las acciones de Repsol suben un 7,37%.
Oil Soars To 3 Week High On Saudi Production Cut Confusion; Iran Spoils The Party
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 09:10
IRAN WANTS TO RECOUP OIL MARKET SHARE AND IS A CHALLENGE IN ANY DEAL TO CUT OIL OUTPUT - OPEC SOURCES
Headline hockey continues in the energy complex as earlier confirmation of a pending OPEC meeting possible in February has seen more color added, via Reuters, that Saudi Arabia made a proposal that OPEC members cut production by a maximum of 5%. There remains confusion however as Bloomberg reports simply that Russian energy minister has said they "may discuss it," as opposed to being a specific proposal.
Precious Metals Pummeled (After Silver's Overnight Flash-Crash)
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 09:31
Pending Home Sales Disappoint, "Sizable Stock Market Losses" Blamed
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 10:08
Following the post-regulatory-change spike in existing and new home sales, pending home sales disappointed with a mere 0.1% rise MoM (missing expectations of a 0.9% rise). The weakness of the forward-looking indicator of home closings was blamed - as usual - on low inventories but also on "sizable losses in the stock market." The 3.1% YoY sales increase is close to the weakest since November 2014.
9:44 Sector Bancos Europa. Vigilar el rango lateral 350,40-324,0
El sector Stoxx 600 Bancos europeo (SX7R) se mantiene en un rango lateral en el muy corto plazo con resistencia en 350,40 y soporte en 324,0.
La pérdida de este soporte abriría las puertas a una extensión de las caídas a la zona de soporte de medio plazo de 316/317.
Por contra, la superación de los 350,40 despejaría el camino hacia 366.
11:10 Morgan Stanley dice que "no estamos como en 2008, no hay ningún riesgo sistémico"
Colm Kelleher, el recién nombrado presidente de Morgan Stanley, ha tratado de tranquilizar al mercado sobre el estado de la economía china. Hablando en una conferencia de Financial Times en Londres, dijo que "China está muy bien".
"Las recientes turbulencias en los mercados globales no es una causa para el exceso de preocupación", dijo. Y agregó: "No hay nuevas noticias en China. Creo que es una excusa para vender el mercado porque hemos subid mucho. Esto no es 2008, no hay ningún riesgo sistémico, no hay ninguna pistola humeante."
11:02 Donald Trump tiene una probabilidad de ganar las elecciones del 20%
Según el corredor de apuestas Matchbook
Donald Trump tiene una probabilidad de una entre cinco de ganar la carrera presidencial de Estados Unidos, según el corredor de apuestas Matchbook.
Las perspectivas de convertirse en presidente de Trump han aumentado desde el 12 por ciento de hace 10 días.
Los corredores de apuestas tradicionales dan a Trump mayores posibilidades. Paddy Power, por ejemplo, da una probabilidad del 25 por ciento a una victoria del triunfo. Hillary Clinton tiene una probabilidad de ganar del 48 por ciento.
S&P 500. Todavía no estamos fuera de peligro
Un cierre semanal por debajo de 1812-1820 con un VIX> 31% sería preocupante
Jueves, 28 de Enero del 2016 - 11:17:00
El S&P 500 registró un fuerte patrón de martillo semanal alcista desde el soporte de 1820 (mínimo de octubre 2014). El Índice ha registrado un martillo como este un buen número de veces, sobre todo en octubre de 2014, agosto 2015 y septiembre de 2015 (destacados en círculos).
Este martillo, junto con los soportes mantenidos y un índice VIX relativamente moderado, proporcionan un telón de fondo técnico constructiva para las acciones estadounidenses.
Un cierre semanal por debajo de la zona 1812-1820 con un Índice VIX por encima del 31% sería un motivo de preocupación, lo que sugiere que todavía no estamos fuera de peligro.
En caso de que produzca este escenario, es probable una caída al canal en 1770 y justo por encima de la media de 200 semanas en 1785.
Además, vale la pena señalar que la corrección actual del 13% es similar al movimiento que vimos después de que la Reserva Federal comenzara un ciclo de subidas de tipos en 1999. Entonces, el S&P 500 también cayó un 13% antes recuperarse y encontrar soporte en la media móvil de 200 días.
Jueves 27/01/16 Ordenes de bienes duraderos
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Re: Jueves 27/01/16 Ordenes de bienes duraderos
por Fenix » Jue Ene 28, 2016 7:47 pm
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- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 27/01/16 Ordenes de bienes duraderos
por Fenix » Jue Ene 28, 2016 7:56 pm
11:24 El analista que predijo la caída del Shanghai Composite cree que bajará a 2.400
Thomas Schroeder, el chartista que predijo en octubre que el repunte de las acciones chinas no duraría, se aferra a su pronóstico y cree que las ventas continuarán.
El Índice Compuesto de Shanghai bajará a 2.400, según Schroeder. Es probable que cualquier sea de corta duración ya que la media móvil de convergencia-divergencia, una medida de impulso, tiende a la baja, dijo.
"Hay más sufrimiento por delante", dijo Schroeder, director general de Partners Group Ltd. "Todavía tenemos que pasar algunas etapas finales de debilidad en el próximo trimestre o dos."
11:42 El banco central estadounidense ha pintado un panorama sombrío de la mayor economía del mundo, pero aún así dejó abierta la puerta para otra alza de tasas en marzo.
La Fed dijo que el crecimiento económico se desaceleró a finales del año pasado y que estaba preocupado por las deficiencias globales que se estaban produciendo, después de su primera reunión de política monetaria desde la subida de las tasas de interés en diciembre.
"No hay duda de que el panorama económico es un poco más sombrío que en diciembre por lo que se podía esperar una declaración un poco más cautelosa, y eso es precisamente lo que hemos tenido", dijo el analista de CMC Markets Michael Hewson.
Deutsche Bank se dejaba un 5 por ciento después de que el prestamista alemán reportara su primera pérdida fiscal anual desde la crisis financiera mundial, en parte debido a la reestructuración e indemnizaciones.
Los bancos de la zona euro cayeron un 3,6 por ciento, con varios prestamistas italianos que llegaron a estar suspendidos de cotización por superar el máximo de caída por segunda vez en dos días.
El plan de la Unión Europea para ayudar a los bancos italianos para ayudarles a descargarse de miles de millones de euros de préstamos incobrables se ha recibido con caídas en el sector. El acuerdo es un compromiso complejo, y podría significar que los bancos incurran en pérdidas significativas sobre la deuda.
"Europa está siete años retrasada cuando se trata de resolver los problemas de los bancos malos, y es por eso por lo qué Europa no se ha recuperado", dijo Rundle de ETX capital.
Hay una conciencia de que aunque se están intentando resolver los problemas, se deberán tomar una serie de nuevas medidas.
Entre los ganadores estuvieron las empresas petroleras, después de que el crudo Brent alcanzara un máximo de tres semanas ante las señales que sugieren que Rusia se dispone a cooperar con la OPEP en los recortes de producción. El sector de Petróleo y Gas sube un 0,7 por ciento.
Repsol recupera un 5,3 por ciento después de anunciar una amortización 2.900 millones de euros en sus resultados de 2015, después de que los precios del petróleo cayeron muy por debajo de los $50 el barril que habían pronosticado como un escenario adverso.
A pesar de la gran amortización, los resultados operativos del trimestre fueron sólidos, mientras que la reducción de la deuda también ha sido positiva.
El euro dólar sube un 0,4 por ciento a 1,0947, perjudicando especialmente al DAX alemán. Un euro más fuerte hace que los productos alemanes sean más caros para los extranjeros.
El eurodólar ha estado subiendo moderadamente en los últimos cuatro días. Realmente no se ha movido por debajo del nivel clave de 1,08 desde hace algún tiempo y no ha sufrido ventas importantes en el mes.
Biotech Bloodbath As Investors Seek Safety Of Facebook 83x P/E
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 10:13
Biotechs are getting crushed, extending losses of the last few days as it appears the earnings beat for Facebook has sparked a great rotation from everything into the social network.
12:00 Wall Street sigue sobrevalorada
A pesar de que las valoraciones se han ajustado en Wall Street tras las últimas caídas, los ratios muestran que la corrección aún podría ir mucho más allá.
Como vemos en el gráfico adjunto, el ratio precio/ventas del S&P 500 se sitúa en 1,61 frente a una media de casi 1,3 desde 2000.
¡Es el petróleo!
Jueves, 28 de Enero del 2016 - 12:32:00
Escribo esta nota tras conocer ayer que los inventarios de crudo han vuelto a subir en USA: un aumento de 8.4 M. de barriles en la semana, casi dos veces la cifra prevista por el mercado. Y un nuevo récord, tras varias semanas de récord consecutivos. Pero es que también han repuntado más de lo previsto los inventarios semanales de gasolina, en 3.5 M. desde los 1.5 M. previstos. En este último caso, alcanzando los niveles más elevados desde 2010.
No, los precios del crudo no han retrocedido ante estos datos. Quizás porque ya están muy bajos y los han descontado. Tal vez, porque en este momento se sigue especulando con una decisión de urgencia de algunos productores (OPEP y otros) para reducir la oferta. La elevada oferta y las dudas sobre la demanda están detrás de la caída de los precios en los últimos meses; la especulación sobre la limitación adicional para acumular inventarios estaría detrás de su derrumbe adicional desde principios de año. Aunque, lo cierto es que el exceso de capacidad cada vez es más limitado y la prima de riesgo en el precio del crudo es casi nula. Naturalmente, nada va a pasar a corto plazo que afecte a la oferta. Pero, de cualquier forma, los precios dan una probabilidad cero a que este supuesto se materialice. ¿Tiene sentido?.
Hay una Regla en el mercado de crudo que hasta el momento no se ha cumplido. Me refiero a que los precios a la baja sirven para equilibrar la oferta a la demanda. Salvo que la discrepancia entre oferta y demanda sea creciente, presionando a una caída que por el momento parece ininterrumpida en los precios. Veremos. La otra regla es que, en términos globales, la caída de los precios del crudo tiene un impacto neutral. O incluso positivo, considerando el mayor peso económico (gasto) de los países importadores frente a los exportadores. Pero, lo cierto es que esto tampoco se cumple hasta el momento. Por ejemplo, obviar la tensión conjunta (el mercado no está para discriminar) en los flujos de capital sobre las economías emergentes, importadores y exportadores, sería sin duda un error. Incertidumbre económica mundial, riesgos de deflación y al final un mayor deterioro en las condiciones financieras a nivel mundial.
Sinceramente, ante un escenario de este tipo la mayor capacidad de gasto que ofrece a los países importadores un precio del crudo más bajo no compensa. Y esto sin mencionar el daño que puede hacer en la infraestructura de producción a medio plazo. Pero, claro, esto último es una amenaza demasiado lejana para ser considerada ahora.
Aquí están nuestras previsiones macro…
Y para los mercados…
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
13:10 La tabla periódica de las rentabilidades de las materias primas
La tabla que publicamos realizada por U.S. Global Investors y llamada la tabla periódica de las rentabilidades de materias primas, recoge la evolución de distintas commodities en diferentes años.
Vemos como 2015 fue un año especialmente negativo para estos activos.
¿Nos encaminamos a un mundo de ciudades amuralladas?
Carlos Montero
Jueves, 28 de Enero del 2016 - 13:45:00
En alguna ocasión hemos señalado que los riesgos que los agentes económicos y financieros perciben en el corto plazo, distan mucho de los factores que realmente condicionan la evolución de los mercados en el corto plazo. Aclaremos esto.
La incertidumbre económica actual está focalizada en el riesgo de un aterrizaje forzoso en China, en la fuerte caída de los precios del petróleo que podría llevar a suspensiones de pagos en cadena tanto en empresas como en países exportadores, en el terrorismo, en la ralentización económica en EE.UU. y Europa con riesgos recesivos. Sin embargo, las claves que condicionarán la evolución de los mercados en el largo plazo son muy diferentes.
En un informe del Foro Económico Mundial de 2016 se detallan los cinco principales riesgos a nivel global en los próximos 18 meses, y en los próximos 10 años. En los próximos 18 meses los mayores riesgos son:
- La migración involuntaria a gran escala.
- Crisis o colapso de Estados.
- Conflictos interestatales.
- Desempleo y subempleo.
- Fallos de gobernanza nacional.
A más largo plazo, 10 años, los riesgos globales son más medioambientales:
- Crisis del agua.
- Fallos en la lucha y adaptación al cambio climático.
- Acontecimientos meteorológicos extremos.
- Crisis alimenticia.
- Inestabilidad social profunda.
Otro riesgo global futuro que podría fijar la próxima tendencia de superciclo de las bolsas, sería lo que algunos consideran la Cuarta Revolución Industrial, que vendría de la mano de la Inteligencia Artificial y la robótica. Este proceso de automatización, que hemos comentado en muchas ocasiones en estas páginas, podría destruir 7,1 millones de empleos en los próximos cinco años frente a una creación de 2 millones. Algunos informes hablan que la destrucción de empleo sería mucho más amplia.
El último informe que comentaremos en el artículo de hoy señala que existe un elevado riesgo de seguridad global en los próximos 15 años: Las transformaciones en el poder político y económico con profundas consecuencias para el orden de la seguridad internacional.
Este informe plantea tres escenarios futuros: El de un mundo constituido por ciudades amuralladas, por regiones fuertes aisladas, o que se produzca un gran conflicto armado que vuelva a definir el orden mundial.
Da miedo pensar en cualquiera de estos tres escenarios. Veremos.
Lacartadelabolsa
14:32 ¿Cómo transcurre la temporada de resultados en Wall Street?
Hasta el momento, el 64% de las compañías que han publicado resultados en el S&P 500 han superado las estimaciones mientras que el 52% han mejorado las estimaciones de ingresos (ver gráfico adjunto).
Esto implica que la estimación de un beneficio por acción de unos 123 dólares en el S&P sigue siendo factible para 2016, sugiriendo que el S&P 500está cotizando a un PER de 15,3x, que está justo por debajo de su media de largo plazo.
Cuatro de los diez sectores en el S&P 500 comercian por debajo de los múltiplos del mercado general: Industriales 14.72x; Materiales 14.66x; Telecom 13.39x; y Finanzas 12.76x.
14:17 Alphabet Class C: bajo presión
Trading Central
[ GOOGLE ]
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 785
Nuestra preferencia: posiciones cortas debajo de 785 con objetivos en 667 y 589 en extensión.
Escenario alternativo: arriba de 785 buscar mayor indicación al alza con 824 y 878 como objetivos.
Comentario técnico: el RSI es bajista e indica mayor caída.
14:58 Dow Jones. Martillo alcista por debajo de la media de largo plazo
Análisis técnico Citi
El Dow Jones Industrial Average probó la media móvil de 200 semanas, pero cerró la semana por encima de ella configurando un martillo alcista.
Los soportes horizontales son claros en el área de 15.340 a 15.370.
Thomas Schroeder, el chartista que predijo en octubre que el repunte de las acciones chinas no duraría, se aferra a su pronóstico y cree que las ventas continuarán.
El Índice Compuesto de Shanghai bajará a 2.400, según Schroeder. Es probable que cualquier sea de corta duración ya que la media móvil de convergencia-divergencia, una medida de impulso, tiende a la baja, dijo.
"Hay más sufrimiento por delante", dijo Schroeder, director general de Partners Group Ltd. "Todavía tenemos que pasar algunas etapas finales de debilidad en el próximo trimestre o dos."
11:42 El banco central estadounidense ha pintado un panorama sombrío de la mayor economía del mundo, pero aún así dejó abierta la puerta para otra alza de tasas en marzo.
La Fed dijo que el crecimiento económico se desaceleró a finales del año pasado y que estaba preocupado por las deficiencias globales que se estaban produciendo, después de su primera reunión de política monetaria desde la subida de las tasas de interés en diciembre.
"No hay duda de que el panorama económico es un poco más sombrío que en diciembre por lo que se podía esperar una declaración un poco más cautelosa, y eso es precisamente lo que hemos tenido", dijo el analista de CMC Markets Michael Hewson.
Deutsche Bank se dejaba un 5 por ciento después de que el prestamista alemán reportara su primera pérdida fiscal anual desde la crisis financiera mundial, en parte debido a la reestructuración e indemnizaciones.
Los bancos de la zona euro cayeron un 3,6 por ciento, con varios prestamistas italianos que llegaron a estar suspendidos de cotización por superar el máximo de caída por segunda vez en dos días.
El plan de la Unión Europea para ayudar a los bancos italianos para ayudarles a descargarse de miles de millones de euros de préstamos incobrables se ha recibido con caídas en el sector. El acuerdo es un compromiso complejo, y podría significar que los bancos incurran en pérdidas significativas sobre la deuda.
"Europa está siete años retrasada cuando se trata de resolver los problemas de los bancos malos, y es por eso por lo qué Europa no se ha recuperado", dijo Rundle de ETX capital.
Hay una conciencia de que aunque se están intentando resolver los problemas, se deberán tomar una serie de nuevas medidas.
Entre los ganadores estuvieron las empresas petroleras, después de que el crudo Brent alcanzara un máximo de tres semanas ante las señales que sugieren que Rusia se dispone a cooperar con la OPEP en los recortes de producción. El sector de Petróleo y Gas sube un 0,7 por ciento.
Repsol recupera un 5,3 por ciento después de anunciar una amortización 2.900 millones de euros en sus resultados de 2015, después de que los precios del petróleo cayeron muy por debajo de los $50 el barril que habían pronosticado como un escenario adverso.
A pesar de la gran amortización, los resultados operativos del trimestre fueron sólidos, mientras que la reducción de la deuda también ha sido positiva.
El euro dólar sube un 0,4 por ciento a 1,0947, perjudicando especialmente al DAX alemán. Un euro más fuerte hace que los productos alemanes sean más caros para los extranjeros.
El eurodólar ha estado subiendo moderadamente en los últimos cuatro días. Realmente no se ha movido por debajo del nivel clave de 1,08 desde hace algún tiempo y no ha sufrido ventas importantes en el mes.
Biotech Bloodbath As Investors Seek Safety Of Facebook 83x P/E
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 10:13
Biotechs are getting crushed, extending losses of the last few days as it appears the earnings beat for Facebook has sparked a great rotation from everything into the social network.
12:00 Wall Street sigue sobrevalorada
A pesar de que las valoraciones se han ajustado en Wall Street tras las últimas caídas, los ratios muestran que la corrección aún podría ir mucho más allá.
Como vemos en el gráfico adjunto, el ratio precio/ventas del S&P 500 se sitúa en 1,61 frente a una media de casi 1,3 desde 2000.
¡Es el petróleo!
Jueves, 28 de Enero del 2016 - 12:32:00
Escribo esta nota tras conocer ayer que los inventarios de crudo han vuelto a subir en USA: un aumento de 8.4 M. de barriles en la semana, casi dos veces la cifra prevista por el mercado. Y un nuevo récord, tras varias semanas de récord consecutivos. Pero es que también han repuntado más de lo previsto los inventarios semanales de gasolina, en 3.5 M. desde los 1.5 M. previstos. En este último caso, alcanzando los niveles más elevados desde 2010.
No, los precios del crudo no han retrocedido ante estos datos. Quizás porque ya están muy bajos y los han descontado. Tal vez, porque en este momento se sigue especulando con una decisión de urgencia de algunos productores (OPEP y otros) para reducir la oferta. La elevada oferta y las dudas sobre la demanda están detrás de la caída de los precios en los últimos meses; la especulación sobre la limitación adicional para acumular inventarios estaría detrás de su derrumbe adicional desde principios de año. Aunque, lo cierto es que el exceso de capacidad cada vez es más limitado y la prima de riesgo en el precio del crudo es casi nula. Naturalmente, nada va a pasar a corto plazo que afecte a la oferta. Pero, de cualquier forma, los precios dan una probabilidad cero a que este supuesto se materialice. ¿Tiene sentido?.
Hay una Regla en el mercado de crudo que hasta el momento no se ha cumplido. Me refiero a que los precios a la baja sirven para equilibrar la oferta a la demanda. Salvo que la discrepancia entre oferta y demanda sea creciente, presionando a una caída que por el momento parece ininterrumpida en los precios. Veremos. La otra regla es que, en términos globales, la caída de los precios del crudo tiene un impacto neutral. O incluso positivo, considerando el mayor peso económico (gasto) de los países importadores frente a los exportadores. Pero, lo cierto es que esto tampoco se cumple hasta el momento. Por ejemplo, obviar la tensión conjunta (el mercado no está para discriminar) en los flujos de capital sobre las economías emergentes, importadores y exportadores, sería sin duda un error. Incertidumbre económica mundial, riesgos de deflación y al final un mayor deterioro en las condiciones financieras a nivel mundial.
Sinceramente, ante un escenario de este tipo la mayor capacidad de gasto que ofrece a los países importadores un precio del crudo más bajo no compensa. Y esto sin mencionar el daño que puede hacer en la infraestructura de producción a medio plazo. Pero, claro, esto último es una amenaza demasiado lejana para ser considerada ahora.
Aquí están nuestras previsiones macro…
Y para los mercados…
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
13:10 La tabla periódica de las rentabilidades de las materias primas
La tabla que publicamos realizada por U.S. Global Investors y llamada la tabla periódica de las rentabilidades de materias primas, recoge la evolución de distintas commodities en diferentes años.
Vemos como 2015 fue un año especialmente negativo para estos activos.
¿Nos encaminamos a un mundo de ciudades amuralladas?
Carlos Montero
Jueves, 28 de Enero del 2016 - 13:45:00
En alguna ocasión hemos señalado que los riesgos que los agentes económicos y financieros perciben en el corto plazo, distan mucho de los factores que realmente condicionan la evolución de los mercados en el corto plazo. Aclaremos esto.
La incertidumbre económica actual está focalizada en el riesgo de un aterrizaje forzoso en China, en la fuerte caída de los precios del petróleo que podría llevar a suspensiones de pagos en cadena tanto en empresas como en países exportadores, en el terrorismo, en la ralentización económica en EE.UU. y Europa con riesgos recesivos. Sin embargo, las claves que condicionarán la evolución de los mercados en el largo plazo son muy diferentes.
En un informe del Foro Económico Mundial de 2016 se detallan los cinco principales riesgos a nivel global en los próximos 18 meses, y en los próximos 10 años. En los próximos 18 meses los mayores riesgos son:
- La migración involuntaria a gran escala.
- Crisis o colapso de Estados.
- Conflictos interestatales.
- Desempleo y subempleo.
- Fallos de gobernanza nacional.
A más largo plazo, 10 años, los riesgos globales son más medioambientales:
- Crisis del agua.
- Fallos en la lucha y adaptación al cambio climático.
- Acontecimientos meteorológicos extremos.
- Crisis alimenticia.
- Inestabilidad social profunda.
Otro riesgo global futuro que podría fijar la próxima tendencia de superciclo de las bolsas, sería lo que algunos consideran la Cuarta Revolución Industrial, que vendría de la mano de la Inteligencia Artificial y la robótica. Este proceso de automatización, que hemos comentado en muchas ocasiones en estas páginas, podría destruir 7,1 millones de empleos en los próximos cinco años frente a una creación de 2 millones. Algunos informes hablan que la destrucción de empleo sería mucho más amplia.
El último informe que comentaremos en el artículo de hoy señala que existe un elevado riesgo de seguridad global en los próximos 15 años: Las transformaciones en el poder político y económico con profundas consecuencias para el orden de la seguridad internacional.
Este informe plantea tres escenarios futuros: El de un mundo constituido por ciudades amuralladas, por regiones fuertes aisladas, o que se produzca un gran conflicto armado que vuelva a definir el orden mundial.
Da miedo pensar en cualquiera de estos tres escenarios. Veremos.
Lacartadelabolsa
14:32 ¿Cómo transcurre la temporada de resultados en Wall Street?
Hasta el momento, el 64% de las compañías que han publicado resultados en el S&P 500 han superado las estimaciones mientras que el 52% han mejorado las estimaciones de ingresos (ver gráfico adjunto).
Esto implica que la estimación de un beneficio por acción de unos 123 dólares en el S&P sigue siendo factible para 2016, sugiriendo que el S&P 500está cotizando a un PER de 15,3x, que está justo por debajo de su media de largo plazo.
Cuatro de los diez sectores en el S&P 500 comercian por debajo de los múltiplos del mercado general: Industriales 14.72x; Materiales 14.66x; Telecom 13.39x; y Finanzas 12.76x.
14:17 Alphabet Class C: bajo presión
Trading Central
[ GOOGLE ]
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 785
Nuestra preferencia: posiciones cortas debajo de 785 con objetivos en 667 y 589 en extensión.
Escenario alternativo: arriba de 785 buscar mayor indicación al alza con 824 y 878 como objetivos.
Comentario técnico: el RSI es bajista e indica mayor caída.
14:58 Dow Jones. Martillo alcista por debajo de la media de largo plazo
Análisis técnico Citi
El Dow Jones Industrial Average probó la media móvil de 200 semanas, pero cerró la semana por encima de ella configurando un martillo alcista.
Los soportes horizontales son claros en el área de 15.340 a 15.370.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 27/01/16 Ordenes de bienes duraderos
por Fenix » Jue Ene 28, 2016 7:59 pm
15:27 ¿Cómo reacciona el mercado en un año electoral?
Stock Trader Almanac dice que el último año de un término electoral solía ser el segundo mejor año dentro del ciclo presidencial, pero los resultados del último año del ciclo de 8 años de Bill Clinton, George W. Bush y Barack Obama han alterado los resultados.
De hecho, el mercado se ha comportado peor durante el octavo año de un mandato presidencial que en cualquier otro año, perdiendo un promedio del 13,9% desde 1920.
Además, 2015 fue el primer año en el que las bolsas perdieron posiciones antes de un año de elecciones desde 1939.
Muchos retos para Irán
Jueves, 28 de Enero del 2016 - 15:53:00
Según Reuter, Azerbaijan podría haber pedido 4 bn. $ en ayuda al FMI y al BM. Si se confirma, sería el primer país productor de crudo que admite la necesidad de ayuda ante la caída de los ingresos del petróleo. ¿Habrá más? No, no sería el caso de Irán.
En definitiva...
1. La retirada de sanciones bajo un escenario de medidas "adecuadas" pueden mejorar las condiciones económicas
2. Pero el descenso de los precios del crudo supone una amenaza económica a corto plazo
3.Son necesarias reformas para fortalecer la economía, aumentar el empleo y reducir la inflación
El FMI espera que la economía de Irán desacelere con fuerza su ritmo de crecimiento desde el 3 % estimado entre 2014/2015 hasta medio punto este año. Si la construcción y el sector manufacturero fueron los motores de crecimiento en los últimos años, ahora es la cautela de los agentes (inversión y consumo) las que impiden que la recuperación se prolongue.
¿Cautela sobre qué? De hecho, en menor medida a la evolución de los precios del crudo. Pero, mucho más importante ahora es el Proceso que puede seguir el levantamiento de las sanciones al país tras el acuerdo internacional alcanzado a mediados del año pasado. En el mejor de los escenarios (más ingresos de la venta de crudo, costes financieros a la baja y mayor confianza internacional), se espera que el ritmo de crecimiento se acelere en los próximos años hasta niveles de 4-5.5 %.
Hay dos demandas importantes desde el FMI a las autoridades del país. La primera, reducir y estabilizar la inflación más allá del esperado efecto beneficioso a corto plazo de la apreciación de la moneda. Piden dar más poderes al banco central, aumentar su independencia, a la hora de gestionar la estabilidad de los precios que ayude a la propia estabilidad económica. Por otro lado, seguir con los ajustes fiscales a corto plazo (reducir subsidios de precios) y plantear una estrategia a medio plazo fiscal.
El FMI también pide reformas para incrementar productividad, atrayendo tecnología exterior y aumentando la flexibildiad de la producción. Y sobre el sector financiero.
Pero de todo esto seguiremos hablando en el futuro próximo....
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
Record Foreign Central Bank Demand For Treasuries In Today's 7 Year Auction
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 13:12
Moments ago we got the answer to our concerns after yesterday's poor % Year auction, when not only was today's "belly of the curve" auction not a "poor showing" at all, it may have been the strongest auction on record: pricing at 1.759% this was stopped 2.2bps through the 1.781% When Issued, perhaps a record in terms of concession, or lack thereof.
Wall Street cierra en positivo y el Dow Jones crece 0,78%
Wall Street cerró hoy con ganancias y el Dow Jones de Industriales, su principal indicador, subió un 0,78%, animado por una recuperación del petróleo y otra tanda de resultados empresariales mejores de lo previsto.
Ese índice sumó 125,18 puntos y terminó en 16.069,64 unidades, el selectivo S&P 500 avanzó un 0,55% hasta 1.893,36 enteros y el índice compuesto del mercado Nasdaq subió un 0,86 % hasta 4.506,68 unidades.
Los operadores en el parqué neoyorquino protagonizaron una sesión volátil que estuvo marcada por un nuevo rebote del precio del petróleo en los mercados internacionales, que al final fue más moderado de lo que apuntaba al inicio de las contrataciones.
El barril de Texas subió un 2,85% y cerró en Nueva York en 33,44 dólares, tras una sesión en la que llegó a dispararse más de un 7%, mientras que el crudo Brent avanzó un 2,41% y terminó en Londres en US$33,89.
La temporada de resultados continuó con el grupo industrial Caterpillar, cuyas previsiones para el conjunto de 2016 superaron las de los analistas y sus acciones cerraron con una fuerte subida del 4,73%.
Por su parte, Facebook se disparó en bolsa y cerró en el mercado Nasdaq con una contundente subida del 15,52%, un día después de sorprender a los inversores con un aumento de sus beneficios del 25% en 2015, impulsados por sus fuertes ingresos publicitarios.
Y al cierre fue el turno de otras tecnológicas como Microsoft, que batió previsiones y subía un 4,89 % en las operaciones electrónicas posteriores a la clausura, o Amazon, que decepcionó con sus cuentas y sus acciones que se desplomaban a más de un 12%.
En segundo plano quedó un dato peor de lo esperado sobre los pedidos de bienes duraderos a las fábricas de Estados Unidos, que descendieron un 5,1% en diciembre y cayeron un 0,6 % en el conjunto de 2015, según el Departamento de Comercio.
El sector energético (2,86 %) encabezó las ganancias en Wall Street, por delante del tecnológico (0,97 %), el de materias primas (0,63 %), el industrial (0,32 %) o el financiero (0,04 %), mientras que solo bajó el sanitario (-2,22 %).
Junto a Caterpillar, en el Dow Jones también subieron Chevron (3,09 %), Nike (2,72 %), Exxon Mobil (2,27 %), Goldman Sachs (2,18 %), Microsoft (1,63 %), Procter & Gamble (1,31 %), McDonald's (1,25 %), 3M (1,24 %), Boeing (1,22 %) o Coca-Cola (1,16 %).
Por su parte, American Express (-3,04 %) encabezó las pérdidas por delante de Merck (-2,34 %), Visa (-2,20 %), Cisco Systems (-1,39 %), Pfizer (-1,11 %), Walt Disney (-0,86 %), UnitedHealth (-0,85 %) y Verizon (-0,04 %). estrategia.cl
Publicado el Jueves, 28 de Enero del 2016
Stock Trader Almanac dice que el último año de un término electoral solía ser el segundo mejor año dentro del ciclo presidencial, pero los resultados del último año del ciclo de 8 años de Bill Clinton, George W. Bush y Barack Obama han alterado los resultados.
De hecho, el mercado se ha comportado peor durante el octavo año de un mandato presidencial que en cualquier otro año, perdiendo un promedio del 13,9% desde 1920.
Además, 2015 fue el primer año en el que las bolsas perdieron posiciones antes de un año de elecciones desde 1939.
Muchos retos para Irán
Jueves, 28 de Enero del 2016 - 15:53:00
Según Reuter, Azerbaijan podría haber pedido 4 bn. $ en ayuda al FMI y al BM. Si se confirma, sería el primer país productor de crudo que admite la necesidad de ayuda ante la caída de los ingresos del petróleo. ¿Habrá más? No, no sería el caso de Irán.
En definitiva...
1. La retirada de sanciones bajo un escenario de medidas "adecuadas" pueden mejorar las condiciones económicas
2. Pero el descenso de los precios del crudo supone una amenaza económica a corto plazo
3.Son necesarias reformas para fortalecer la economía, aumentar el empleo y reducir la inflación
El FMI espera que la economía de Irán desacelere con fuerza su ritmo de crecimiento desde el 3 % estimado entre 2014/2015 hasta medio punto este año. Si la construcción y el sector manufacturero fueron los motores de crecimiento en los últimos años, ahora es la cautela de los agentes (inversión y consumo) las que impiden que la recuperación se prolongue.
¿Cautela sobre qué? De hecho, en menor medida a la evolución de los precios del crudo. Pero, mucho más importante ahora es el Proceso que puede seguir el levantamiento de las sanciones al país tras el acuerdo internacional alcanzado a mediados del año pasado. En el mejor de los escenarios (más ingresos de la venta de crudo, costes financieros a la baja y mayor confianza internacional), se espera que el ritmo de crecimiento se acelere en los próximos años hasta niveles de 4-5.5 %.
Hay dos demandas importantes desde el FMI a las autoridades del país. La primera, reducir y estabilizar la inflación más allá del esperado efecto beneficioso a corto plazo de la apreciación de la moneda. Piden dar más poderes al banco central, aumentar su independencia, a la hora de gestionar la estabilidad de los precios que ayude a la propia estabilidad económica. Por otro lado, seguir con los ajustes fiscales a corto plazo (reducir subsidios de precios) y plantear una estrategia a medio plazo fiscal.
El FMI también pide reformas para incrementar productividad, atrayendo tecnología exterior y aumentando la flexibildiad de la producción. Y sobre el sector financiero.
Pero de todo esto seguiremos hablando en el futuro próximo....
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
Record Foreign Central Bank Demand For Treasuries In Today's 7 Year Auction
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 13:12
Moments ago we got the answer to our concerns after yesterday's poor % Year auction, when not only was today's "belly of the curve" auction not a "poor showing" at all, it may have been the strongest auction on record: pricing at 1.759% this was stopped 2.2bps through the 1.781% When Issued, perhaps a record in terms of concession, or lack thereof.
Wall Street cierra en positivo y el Dow Jones crece 0,78%
Wall Street cerró hoy con ganancias y el Dow Jones de Industriales, su principal indicador, subió un 0,78%, animado por una recuperación del petróleo y otra tanda de resultados empresariales mejores de lo previsto.
Ese índice sumó 125,18 puntos y terminó en 16.069,64 unidades, el selectivo S&P 500 avanzó un 0,55% hasta 1.893,36 enteros y el índice compuesto del mercado Nasdaq subió un 0,86 % hasta 4.506,68 unidades.
Los operadores en el parqué neoyorquino protagonizaron una sesión volátil que estuvo marcada por un nuevo rebote del precio del petróleo en los mercados internacionales, que al final fue más moderado de lo que apuntaba al inicio de las contrataciones.
El barril de Texas subió un 2,85% y cerró en Nueva York en 33,44 dólares, tras una sesión en la que llegó a dispararse más de un 7%, mientras que el crudo Brent avanzó un 2,41% y terminó en Londres en US$33,89.
La temporada de resultados continuó con el grupo industrial Caterpillar, cuyas previsiones para el conjunto de 2016 superaron las de los analistas y sus acciones cerraron con una fuerte subida del 4,73%.
Por su parte, Facebook se disparó en bolsa y cerró en el mercado Nasdaq con una contundente subida del 15,52%, un día después de sorprender a los inversores con un aumento de sus beneficios del 25% en 2015, impulsados por sus fuertes ingresos publicitarios.
Y al cierre fue el turno de otras tecnológicas como Microsoft, que batió previsiones y subía un 4,89 % en las operaciones electrónicas posteriores a la clausura, o Amazon, que decepcionó con sus cuentas y sus acciones que se desplomaban a más de un 12%.
En segundo plano quedó un dato peor de lo esperado sobre los pedidos de bienes duraderos a las fábricas de Estados Unidos, que descendieron un 5,1% en diciembre y cayeron un 0,6 % en el conjunto de 2015, según el Departamento de Comercio.
El sector energético (2,86 %) encabezó las ganancias en Wall Street, por delante del tecnológico (0,97 %), el de materias primas (0,63 %), el industrial (0,32 %) o el financiero (0,04 %), mientras que solo bajó el sanitario (-2,22 %).
Junto a Caterpillar, en el Dow Jones también subieron Chevron (3,09 %), Nike (2,72 %), Exxon Mobil (2,27 %), Goldman Sachs (2,18 %), Microsoft (1,63 %), Procter & Gamble (1,31 %), McDonald's (1,25 %), 3M (1,24 %), Boeing (1,22 %) o Coca-Cola (1,16 %).
Por su parte, American Express (-3,04 %) encabezó las pérdidas por delante de Merck (-2,34 %), Visa (-2,20 %), Cisco Systems (-1,39 %), Pfizer (-1,11 %), Walt Disney (-0,86 %), UnitedHealth (-0,85 %) y Verizon (-0,04 %). estrategia.cl
Publicado el Jueves, 28 de Enero del 2016
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 27/01/16 Ordenes de bienes duraderos
por Fenix » Jue Ene 28, 2016 8:13 pm
This Could Be A Problem: China's Debt-To-GDP Rises To A Gargantuan 346%
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 13:30
According to the head of financial markets research Asia Pacific at Rabobank, Michael Every, not only has China not begun to delever at all, but since McKinsey's update, its debt has risen by another 70% of GDP! According to Every, China's 2015 debt-to-GDP might be as high as 346%, and while that is in line with wealthier developed economies but is “vastly higher” than any EM peer.
Manufacturing Matters
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 13:40
Much predictably fatuous comment has been devoted to the fact that, to the extent that the US is facing any difficulties at all outside the oil patch, at present these ‘only’ affect manufacturing - a sector which , as any fool knows, accounts for a mere 12% of GDP. To acquire a feel for the error in this argument, we must look beyond the final-use fixation of the GDP arithmetic and cast our gaze instead at wider measures of activity. The charts presented here are an attempt at achieving such an overview...
HSBC Halts Mortgage Options To Chinese Nationals Buying U.S. Real Estate
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 15:05
Europe’s biggest lender HSBC will no longer provide mortgages to some Chinese nationals who buy real estate in the United States, a policy change that comes as Beijing is battling to stem a swelling crowd of citizens trying to get money out of China. However, ass HSBC closes the door, the panicking Bank of Canada scrapped its C$1.25 million cap on mortgages to borrowers with no local credit history (to tap into surging demand for financing from wealthy immigrant buyers).
9 Billion Barrels Of Crude At Risk In Massive Nigerian Oil Shakeup
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 15:35
Supermajors Shell and Italian Eni could be facing the loss of one of the biggest offshore oil exploration blocks in Nigeria, putting an estimated 9 billion barrels of crude oil at risk.
Dotcom 2.0: SEC Warns "Aggressive Promoters" Took Advantage Of IPO Investors
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 15:50
In a disappointingly familiar (and entirely unsurprising) case of deja vu, SEC Chair Mary Jo White raised the specter of Wall Street taking advantage of greedy mom-and-pop investors once again. Having crashed 21% in the last three weeks alone, sudden weakness in recent IPOs raises questions about the issuance process, as Bloomberg reports, White warned investors that "you have to make sure you don’t have some very aggressive promoters taking advantage of that climate." As big investors mark-down their lofty valuations, it will be the average joe, pumped and dumped by CNBC and its ilk, that end up the biggest losers in this all too real show.
Saudi Arabia Conducted 119 Airstrikes Against Civilian Targets In Yemen, UN Panel Finds
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 18:55
“Many attacks involved multiple airstrikes on multiple civilian objects. Of the 119 sorties, the panel identified 146 targeted objects. The panel also documented three alleged cases of civilians fleeing residential bombings and being chased and shot at by helicopters.”
BoJ Preview: "The Need For A Kuroda Bazooka Is Growing"
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 19:10
With The Fed definitely off the table, China promising nothing but daily liquidity drips, and Europe unable to do anything but jawbone, the world's bullish equity market investors are anxiously trawling for a central bank to save the world. Tonight's BoJ meeting could well be it - though judging by their past epic failures - it will be anything but successful as QE23 looms in Japan. “The need for a Kuroda bazooka is increasing,” said Yuji Shimanaka, an economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo. “This is decision time for Kuroda” as additional stimulus can stop the trend of yen gains and falling stocks.
3 Things: Fed Fails, Houston Horror, And Market Malaise
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 16:27
"With January looking like a loser, there is a 70% chance that February will decline also. The high degree of risk of further declines in February would likely result in a confirmation of the bear market. This is not a market to be trifled with. Caution is advised."
Amazon Plunges After Missing Q4 Revenue, Earnings As Concerns Emerge About Future Profitability
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 16:37
For years, shorts would tear their hair out quarter after quarter, when AMZN would continue to bleed cash with relentless abandon, only to see the stock soar after earnings. Now, in what may be a perfect poetic symmetry, following the quarter in which Amazon's free cash flow soared to the highest in years, printing at $7.3 billion, or more than triple the year ago period on margins that are becoming respectable on both a quarterly and LTM basis. And yet, the stock is crashing by 12% at this moment.
Red Ponzi Ticking
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 17:10
There is something rotten in the state of Denmark. And we are not talking just about the hapless socialist utopia on the Jutland Peninsula - even if it does strip assets from homeless refugees, charge savers 75 basis points for the deposit privilege and allocate nearly 60% of its GDP to the Welfare State and its untoward ministrations. In fact, the rot is planetary. There is unaccountable, implausible, whacko-world stuff going on everywhere, but the frightful part is that most of it goes unremarked or is viewed as par for the course by the mainstream narrative.
This $250,000 Caterpillar Bulldozer Can Be Yours For The Low, Low Price Of $55
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 17:09
For Amazon, The Only Chart That Matters
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 17:10
What matters for Amazon has never been earnings: it was always top line growth (the company generated $107 billion in sales in 2015 and less than a billion in net income) and multiple expansion (or contraction).
Saudi Arabia Hemorrhages $19.4 Billion In Reserves During December
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 17:40
Saudi Arabia - which was busy playing headline hockey with Russia this morning over a rumored 5% production cut proposal - is running out of money. Yes, we know, that sounds absurd. But believe it or not, the country whose monarch recently rented the entire Four Seasons hotel for a 48 hour stay in Washington DC, is in fact going broke. And at a fairly rapid clip.
Gold, Political Instability, & Why QE Was The Worst Thing In The World
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 18:05 -0500
Submitted by Jared Dillian
Long before I started writing for Mauldin Economics, I was a gold bull.
A mega-gold bull.
This started in 2005. I was making markets in ETFs at the time, and as head of the ETF desk at Lehman Brothers, I signed the firm up to be one of the early authorized participants in the SPDR Gold Shares fund (GLD). I was pretty excited.
It may seem quaint now, but at the time, there really wasn’t an easy way to invest in gold outside of coins or bars (high transaction costs, cumbersome) or futures (high barriers to entry). Physical gold, of course, is preferable, but you can’t really trade it, per se.
So I bought some GLD in 2005, bought more, bought more, bought more in 2008 with veins popping out of my neck, and was caught massively long in 2011.
I figured, oh well, it’s just a correction, I’ll ride it out. Except I didn’t know that it was going to be a 40+% drawdown and last five years. If I’d had that knowledge, I probably would have sold.
But my investment thesis on gold hadn’t changed.
Let me explain.
Why Gold
When the financial system was melting down in 2008, I predicted (possibly before anyone else) that Ben Bernanke would conduct unconventional monetary policy: quantitative easing. In retrospect, it wasn’t a hard call. He basically said he was going to do it in a 2002 speech.
I remember the day. The long bond rallied nine handles.
Anyway, that’s when the veins popped out of my neck, because I said all this printed money was going to slosh around the financial system and cause hyperinflation. Of course, I wasn’t the only one saying this, but I was saying it pretty loudly.
Never happened. All that money never ended up sloshing around—it ended up deposited as excess reserves back at the Fed. Years later, people theorized that quantitative easing actually caused the opposite to happen: deflation.
Anyhow, in finance, it is okay to be right for the wrong reasons. Gold went up for three more years, the best-performing asset class, even though the underlying thesis was totally wrong. There was no inflation whatsoever. Eventually, gold got the joke as sentiment turned, and you know what the last five years have been like.
The Weimar Experience
When the gold bugs start talking about hyperinflation, they usually start talking about Weimar Germany, probably the best-documented example of a situation where inflationary psychology took hold.
I don’t want to rehash the whole story here, but basically, post WWI, the League of Nations saddled Germany with a bunch of war reparations it could not possibly ever repay. In the end, though, Germany did repay—with printed money.
The funny thing about inflation is that it is always fun at first. Weimar Germany boomed for a couple of years, before the inflation began to get out of control. Ultimately, the deutsche mark collapsed, replaced by the rentenmark, which was actually backed by something of tangible value: land.
The ensuing financial collapse brought about political instability, which led to the rise of Hitler, and you know the story from there.
Now, clearly that hasn’t happened in the US, and it isn’t likely to happen. We did not get inflation… of goods and services. Interestingly, though, we got inflation of financial asset prices. Stocks and bonds went up, as well as real estate—even art. Great, but as you know, not everybody owns stocks, usually only people with some money to invest.
So as all the research shows, the rich have gotten richer, and the poor have gotten poorer. Inequality has increased massively, which has brought about political instability, which will lead to… who, as president, exactly?
Perish the thought.
Anyway, whether gold goes up or down, I continue to assert that printing money is absolutely the worst thing a central bank can do. Even under the best of circumstances, the unintended consequences are colossally bad. Even now, the Fed is just getting around to acknowledging the fact that QE might have actually caused wealth inequality.
There are those who will always say, “What, was the Fed supposed to do nothing? What do you think would have happened?”
An unimaginably bad depression. Then, the best recovery ever. And nobody would be mad at each other.
Gold Is Bouncing
You can’t deny the price action. Over the last few weeks, it is positively buoyant. If I were short, my butt cheeks would be tightening up.
I’m starting to develop a theory, which is crazy, but then again… it might not be entirely crazy. You can help me decide.
Maybe gold is starting to price in some of this political instability. Maybe it is starting to price in a Sanders or Trump presidency.
After all, if Bernie Sanders were to become president, he would double the debt overnight
If it were Trump, probably the same thing—we are talking about a guy who has spent his entire career screwing creditors.
This increases the possibility, however remote, of debt monetization. Also, populists are great for gold prices.
Like I said, maybe not so crazy. Regardless of whether gold goes up or down, or if you think gold bugs are total idiots, it makes sense (for a lot of portfolio theory reasons) to have it as part of your portfolio.
Sometimes a bigger part than others.
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 13:30
According to the head of financial markets research Asia Pacific at Rabobank, Michael Every, not only has China not begun to delever at all, but since McKinsey's update, its debt has risen by another 70% of GDP! According to Every, China's 2015 debt-to-GDP might be as high as 346%, and while that is in line with wealthier developed economies but is “vastly higher” than any EM peer.
Manufacturing Matters
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 13:40
Much predictably fatuous comment has been devoted to the fact that, to the extent that the US is facing any difficulties at all outside the oil patch, at present these ‘only’ affect manufacturing - a sector which , as any fool knows, accounts for a mere 12% of GDP. To acquire a feel for the error in this argument, we must look beyond the final-use fixation of the GDP arithmetic and cast our gaze instead at wider measures of activity. The charts presented here are an attempt at achieving such an overview...
HSBC Halts Mortgage Options To Chinese Nationals Buying U.S. Real Estate
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 15:05
Europe’s biggest lender HSBC will no longer provide mortgages to some Chinese nationals who buy real estate in the United States, a policy change that comes as Beijing is battling to stem a swelling crowd of citizens trying to get money out of China. However, ass HSBC closes the door, the panicking Bank of Canada scrapped its C$1.25 million cap on mortgages to borrowers with no local credit history (to tap into surging demand for financing from wealthy immigrant buyers).
9 Billion Barrels Of Crude At Risk In Massive Nigerian Oil Shakeup
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 15:35
Supermajors Shell and Italian Eni could be facing the loss of one of the biggest offshore oil exploration blocks in Nigeria, putting an estimated 9 billion barrels of crude oil at risk.
Dotcom 2.0: SEC Warns "Aggressive Promoters" Took Advantage Of IPO Investors
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 15:50
In a disappointingly familiar (and entirely unsurprising) case of deja vu, SEC Chair Mary Jo White raised the specter of Wall Street taking advantage of greedy mom-and-pop investors once again. Having crashed 21% in the last three weeks alone, sudden weakness in recent IPOs raises questions about the issuance process, as Bloomberg reports, White warned investors that "you have to make sure you don’t have some very aggressive promoters taking advantage of that climate." As big investors mark-down their lofty valuations, it will be the average joe, pumped and dumped by CNBC and its ilk, that end up the biggest losers in this all too real show.
Saudi Arabia Conducted 119 Airstrikes Against Civilian Targets In Yemen, UN Panel Finds
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 18:55
“Many attacks involved multiple airstrikes on multiple civilian objects. Of the 119 sorties, the panel identified 146 targeted objects. The panel also documented three alleged cases of civilians fleeing residential bombings and being chased and shot at by helicopters.”
BoJ Preview: "The Need For A Kuroda Bazooka Is Growing"
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 19:10
With The Fed definitely off the table, China promising nothing but daily liquidity drips, and Europe unable to do anything but jawbone, the world's bullish equity market investors are anxiously trawling for a central bank to save the world. Tonight's BoJ meeting could well be it - though judging by their past epic failures - it will be anything but successful as QE23 looms in Japan. “The need for a Kuroda bazooka is increasing,” said Yuji Shimanaka, an economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo. “This is decision time for Kuroda” as additional stimulus can stop the trend of yen gains and falling stocks.
3 Things: Fed Fails, Houston Horror, And Market Malaise
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 16:27
"With January looking like a loser, there is a 70% chance that February will decline also. The high degree of risk of further declines in February would likely result in a confirmation of the bear market. This is not a market to be trifled with. Caution is advised."
Amazon Plunges After Missing Q4 Revenue, Earnings As Concerns Emerge About Future Profitability
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 16:37
For years, shorts would tear their hair out quarter after quarter, when AMZN would continue to bleed cash with relentless abandon, only to see the stock soar after earnings. Now, in what may be a perfect poetic symmetry, following the quarter in which Amazon's free cash flow soared to the highest in years, printing at $7.3 billion, or more than triple the year ago period on margins that are becoming respectable on both a quarterly and LTM basis. And yet, the stock is crashing by 12% at this moment.
Red Ponzi Ticking
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 17:10
There is something rotten in the state of Denmark. And we are not talking just about the hapless socialist utopia on the Jutland Peninsula - even if it does strip assets from homeless refugees, charge savers 75 basis points for the deposit privilege and allocate nearly 60% of its GDP to the Welfare State and its untoward ministrations. In fact, the rot is planetary. There is unaccountable, implausible, whacko-world stuff going on everywhere, but the frightful part is that most of it goes unremarked or is viewed as par for the course by the mainstream narrative.
This $250,000 Caterpillar Bulldozer Can Be Yours For The Low, Low Price Of $55
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 17:09
For Amazon, The Only Chart That Matters
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 17:10
What matters for Amazon has never been earnings: it was always top line growth (the company generated $107 billion in sales in 2015 and less than a billion in net income) and multiple expansion (or contraction).
Saudi Arabia Hemorrhages $19.4 Billion In Reserves During December
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 17:40
Saudi Arabia - which was busy playing headline hockey with Russia this morning over a rumored 5% production cut proposal - is running out of money. Yes, we know, that sounds absurd. But believe it or not, the country whose monarch recently rented the entire Four Seasons hotel for a 48 hour stay in Washington DC, is in fact going broke. And at a fairly rapid clip.
Gold, Political Instability, & Why QE Was The Worst Thing In The World
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 18:05 -0500
Submitted by Jared Dillian
Long before I started writing for Mauldin Economics, I was a gold bull.
A mega-gold bull.
This started in 2005. I was making markets in ETFs at the time, and as head of the ETF desk at Lehman Brothers, I signed the firm up to be one of the early authorized participants in the SPDR Gold Shares fund (GLD). I was pretty excited.
It may seem quaint now, but at the time, there really wasn’t an easy way to invest in gold outside of coins or bars (high transaction costs, cumbersome) or futures (high barriers to entry). Physical gold, of course, is preferable, but you can’t really trade it, per se.
So I bought some GLD in 2005, bought more, bought more, bought more in 2008 with veins popping out of my neck, and was caught massively long in 2011.
I figured, oh well, it’s just a correction, I’ll ride it out. Except I didn’t know that it was going to be a 40+% drawdown and last five years. If I’d had that knowledge, I probably would have sold.
But my investment thesis on gold hadn’t changed.
Let me explain.
Why Gold
When the financial system was melting down in 2008, I predicted (possibly before anyone else) that Ben Bernanke would conduct unconventional monetary policy: quantitative easing. In retrospect, it wasn’t a hard call. He basically said he was going to do it in a 2002 speech.
I remember the day. The long bond rallied nine handles.
Anyway, that’s when the veins popped out of my neck, because I said all this printed money was going to slosh around the financial system and cause hyperinflation. Of course, I wasn’t the only one saying this, but I was saying it pretty loudly.
Never happened. All that money never ended up sloshing around—it ended up deposited as excess reserves back at the Fed. Years later, people theorized that quantitative easing actually caused the opposite to happen: deflation.
Anyhow, in finance, it is okay to be right for the wrong reasons. Gold went up for three more years, the best-performing asset class, even though the underlying thesis was totally wrong. There was no inflation whatsoever. Eventually, gold got the joke as sentiment turned, and you know what the last five years have been like.
The Weimar Experience
When the gold bugs start talking about hyperinflation, they usually start talking about Weimar Germany, probably the best-documented example of a situation where inflationary psychology took hold.
I don’t want to rehash the whole story here, but basically, post WWI, the League of Nations saddled Germany with a bunch of war reparations it could not possibly ever repay. In the end, though, Germany did repay—with printed money.
The funny thing about inflation is that it is always fun at first. Weimar Germany boomed for a couple of years, before the inflation began to get out of control. Ultimately, the deutsche mark collapsed, replaced by the rentenmark, which was actually backed by something of tangible value: land.
The ensuing financial collapse brought about political instability, which led to the rise of Hitler, and you know the story from there.
Now, clearly that hasn’t happened in the US, and it isn’t likely to happen. We did not get inflation… of goods and services. Interestingly, though, we got inflation of financial asset prices. Stocks and bonds went up, as well as real estate—even art. Great, but as you know, not everybody owns stocks, usually only people with some money to invest.
So as all the research shows, the rich have gotten richer, and the poor have gotten poorer. Inequality has increased massively, which has brought about political instability, which will lead to… who, as president, exactly?
Perish the thought.
Anyway, whether gold goes up or down, I continue to assert that printing money is absolutely the worst thing a central bank can do. Even under the best of circumstances, the unintended consequences are colossally bad. Even now, the Fed is just getting around to acknowledging the fact that QE might have actually caused wealth inequality.
There are those who will always say, “What, was the Fed supposed to do nothing? What do you think would have happened?”
An unimaginably bad depression. Then, the best recovery ever. And nobody would be mad at each other.
Gold Is Bouncing
You can’t deny the price action. Over the last few weeks, it is positively buoyant. If I were short, my butt cheeks would be tightening up.
I’m starting to develop a theory, which is crazy, but then again… it might not be entirely crazy. You can help me decide.
Maybe gold is starting to price in some of this political instability. Maybe it is starting to price in a Sanders or Trump presidency.
After all, if Bernie Sanders were to become president, he would double the debt overnight
If it were Trump, probably the same thing—we are talking about a guy who has spent his entire career screwing creditors.
This increases the possibility, however remote, of debt monetization. Also, populists are great for gold prices.
Like I said, maybe not so crazy. Regardless of whether gold goes up or down, or if you think gold bugs are total idiots, it makes sense (for a lot of portfolio theory reasons) to have it as part of your portfolio.
Sometimes a bigger part than others.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 27/01/16 Ordenes de bienes duraderos
por Fenix » Jue Ene 28, 2016 8:17 pm
Here Is The Reason For January's Selloff: Chinese Capital Outflows Soar To Second Highest Ever
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 19:42 -0500
While China's currency devaluation has, alongside the price of commodities, become one of the two key drivers of market volatility and tubulence around the globe, when it comes to risk, one far more important Chinese metric is the actual amount of capital that leaves the nation.
The reason for this is that as explained over the weekend, in a world where Quantitative Tightening by EMs and SWFs has emerged as a powerful counterforce to Quantitative Easing - or liquidity injections - by developed central banks, what matters for global risk levels is the net effect of these two opposing money flows.
Of all the global "quantitative tighteners", the biggest culprit is China, which has seen over $1 trillion in reserve selling since the summer of 2014, the direct result of a virtually identical amount in capital outflows.
Furthermore in for a "closed' Capital Account system like is China, the selling of FX reserves is a direct function of capital outflows, so the only real data needed to extrapolate not only the matched reserve selling and thus Quantitative Tightening, but also the direct impact onglobal risk assets, is how much capital outflow has taken place.
This takes place in one of two ways: by relying on official Chinese historical data, or by estimating how much outflows take place on a concurrent basis, thus allowing one to estimate how much capital is flowing out in real time. Indicatively, China's SAFE released onshore FX settlement data for the whole banking system (PBoC+banks), suggesting some $97bn of FX outflows in Dec, which is broadly in line with the fall in official reserves.
But much more important is the question what is taking place right now, the answer to which can either wait until SAFE releases January data in several weeks... or rely on day to day estimates of outflows in the form of central bank FX intervention.
Luckily, we have just that.
According to a Goldman report, so far in January "there has been around $USD 185bn of intervention (with the recent intervention predominantly taking place in the onshore market)" split roughly $143 billion on the domestic side and $42 billion on the offshore Yuan side.
This would make January the month with the second largest amount of intervention since August 2015, and thus the second highest month of capital outflows, and would explain the ongoing deterioration across global asset classes as China's various FX reserve managers have been forced to sell not just government bonds but equities as well.
Goldman also calculates that "total intervention over the last 6 months, using our estimates, sums to USD 775bn." Run-rating this amount would suggest that nearly $1.6 trillion in Quantiative Tightening is taking place just due to China's attempts to stem capital flight. This number excludes the hundreds of billions in reserves that all other petrodollar and EM nations have to liquidate as well to prevent the rapid devaluation of their own currencies as the world remains caught in the global dollar margin call we first explained in early 2015.
The implications from this are two-fold:
* For the selling culprit, responsible for the recent market weakness look no further than China, whose reverse "flow" has been responsible for the terrible start to 2016 capital markets.
* For the Beijing politburo, halting capital outflows is becoming a matter of life or death, because there are only so many liquid reserves China can liquidate before it enters dangerous territory; worse, the less the reserves, the greater the desire will be on behalf of the local population to take their money and run.
Of course, China's rabid defense of further capital outflows means that its original intent, to devalue the Yuan to a degree that boosts its economy via exports, has been put on hiatus, or in other words China is trapped, and instead of an external rebalancing it is forced to boost its economy in the one way it knows best: by issuing ever more debt. However, with China's total debt now estimated at 350% of GDP, it only has a finite amount of time before the debt bubble finally pops as well.
In other words, for China there is, as of this moment, quite literally no way out, and what's worse the longer it delay the decision of how it will reset its economy, the worse it will be for global risk markets.
Deutsche Bank Eliminates Management Bonuses After "Horrible," "Grim" Results
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 18:30
Last week, Deutsche Bank preannounced a set of "extremely poor results" for 2015. On Thursday, we got a look at all of the numbers and the picture is not pretty. With CB&S revenues plunging by a third, Citi asks if Deutsche's investment bank model "is in structural decline."
Silver Market In Disarray After Benchmark Price Fix Manipulation
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 15:10 -0500
As Bulliondesk.com's Ian Walker reports, the silver market was thrown into disarray on Thursday after the LBMA Silver Price was set 84 cents below the spot and futures price this morning.
The LBMA Silver Price – the crucial daily benchmark used by producers and traders around the world to settle silver products and derivatives contracts – was set at $13.58 per ounce.
At the time of the auction, which begins at 12 noon London time, the spot price was at $14.42 per ounce while the futures price on the CME was at $14.415, leaving a number of market participants extremely confused as to what has happened.
“Unfortunately, it is not [a mistake],” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank, told FastMarkets. “This could be the end of the fix. It took 14 minutes to find a fix – they obviously found a fix way off of the market.”
The difference between the two was nearly six percent but the benchmark cannot be changed, a person familiar with proceedings told FastMarkets.
Another source also suggested that the continued existence of the fix has been put in jeopardy by the huge discrepancy in today’s price, adding that many producers – who still use the price as their daily reference – may have lost significant amounts of money if any contracts have been settled according to the fix.
“A huge number of contracts are still settled on that price,” another said. “This will no doubt cause significant problems.”
The matter is being investigated internally, FastMarkets understands, so CME has no official comment at this time.
This is how the market reacted to this clear manipulation...
As we have detailed previously, the ‘fix’ or ‘benchmark’, as it is now known, is still the global benchmark reference price used by central banks, miners, refiners, jewellers and the surrounding financial industry to settle silver-based contracts.
While some traders continue to use the 24-hourly traded spot price, larger players prefer the snapshot-style daily benchmark to settle bulkier contracts on a traditionally over-the-counter (OTC) market.
The price is set every day by six participants – HSBC, JPMorgan Chase Bank, Mitsui & Co Precious Metals, The Bank of Nova Scotia, Toronto Dominion Bank and UBS – using a system run by CME and Thomson Reuters.
CME and Thomson Reuters won the battle to provide the methodology and price platform for the daily process back in July 2014, replacing the 117-year old fix in August that year under sweeping reforms of the entire precious metals complex.
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 19:42 -0500
While China's currency devaluation has, alongside the price of commodities, become one of the two key drivers of market volatility and tubulence around the globe, when it comes to risk, one far more important Chinese metric is the actual amount of capital that leaves the nation.
The reason for this is that as explained over the weekend, in a world where Quantitative Tightening by EMs and SWFs has emerged as a powerful counterforce to Quantitative Easing - or liquidity injections - by developed central banks, what matters for global risk levels is the net effect of these two opposing money flows.
Of all the global "quantitative tighteners", the biggest culprit is China, which has seen over $1 trillion in reserve selling since the summer of 2014, the direct result of a virtually identical amount in capital outflows.
Furthermore in for a "closed' Capital Account system like is China, the selling of FX reserves is a direct function of capital outflows, so the only real data needed to extrapolate not only the matched reserve selling and thus Quantitative Tightening, but also the direct impact onglobal risk assets, is how much capital outflow has taken place.
This takes place in one of two ways: by relying on official Chinese historical data, or by estimating how much outflows take place on a concurrent basis, thus allowing one to estimate how much capital is flowing out in real time. Indicatively, China's SAFE released onshore FX settlement data for the whole banking system (PBoC+banks), suggesting some $97bn of FX outflows in Dec, which is broadly in line with the fall in official reserves.
But much more important is the question what is taking place right now, the answer to which can either wait until SAFE releases January data in several weeks... or rely on day to day estimates of outflows in the form of central bank FX intervention.
Luckily, we have just that.
According to a Goldman report, so far in January "there has been around $USD 185bn of intervention (with the recent intervention predominantly taking place in the onshore market)" split roughly $143 billion on the domestic side and $42 billion on the offshore Yuan side.
This would make January the month with the second largest amount of intervention since August 2015, and thus the second highest month of capital outflows, and would explain the ongoing deterioration across global asset classes as China's various FX reserve managers have been forced to sell not just government bonds but equities as well.
Goldman also calculates that "total intervention over the last 6 months, using our estimates, sums to USD 775bn." Run-rating this amount would suggest that nearly $1.6 trillion in Quantiative Tightening is taking place just due to China's attempts to stem capital flight. This number excludes the hundreds of billions in reserves that all other petrodollar and EM nations have to liquidate as well to prevent the rapid devaluation of their own currencies as the world remains caught in the global dollar margin call we first explained in early 2015.
The implications from this are two-fold:
* For the selling culprit, responsible for the recent market weakness look no further than China, whose reverse "flow" has been responsible for the terrible start to 2016 capital markets.
* For the Beijing politburo, halting capital outflows is becoming a matter of life or death, because there are only so many liquid reserves China can liquidate before it enters dangerous territory; worse, the less the reserves, the greater the desire will be on behalf of the local population to take their money and run.
Of course, China's rabid defense of further capital outflows means that its original intent, to devalue the Yuan to a degree that boosts its economy via exports, has been put on hiatus, or in other words China is trapped, and instead of an external rebalancing it is forced to boost its economy in the one way it knows best: by issuing ever more debt. However, with China's total debt now estimated at 350% of GDP, it only has a finite amount of time before the debt bubble finally pops as well.
In other words, for China there is, as of this moment, quite literally no way out, and what's worse the longer it delay the decision of how it will reset its economy, the worse it will be for global risk markets.
Deutsche Bank Eliminates Management Bonuses After "Horrible," "Grim" Results
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 - 18:30
Last week, Deutsche Bank preannounced a set of "extremely poor results" for 2015. On Thursday, we got a look at all of the numbers and the picture is not pretty. With CB&S revenues plunging by a third, Citi asks if Deutsche's investment bank model "is in structural decline."
Silver Market In Disarray After Benchmark Price Fix Manipulation
Submitted by Tyler D.
01/28/2016 15:10 -0500
As Bulliondesk.com's Ian Walker reports, the silver market was thrown into disarray on Thursday after the LBMA Silver Price was set 84 cents below the spot and futures price this morning.
The LBMA Silver Price – the crucial daily benchmark used by producers and traders around the world to settle silver products and derivatives contracts – was set at $13.58 per ounce.
At the time of the auction, which begins at 12 noon London time, the spot price was at $14.42 per ounce while the futures price on the CME was at $14.415, leaving a number of market participants extremely confused as to what has happened.
“Unfortunately, it is not [a mistake],” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank, told FastMarkets. “This could be the end of the fix. It took 14 minutes to find a fix – they obviously found a fix way off of the market.”
The difference between the two was nearly six percent but the benchmark cannot be changed, a person familiar with proceedings told FastMarkets.
Another source also suggested that the continued existence of the fix has been put in jeopardy by the huge discrepancy in today’s price, adding that many producers – who still use the price as their daily reference – may have lost significant amounts of money if any contracts have been settled according to the fix.
“A huge number of contracts are still settled on that price,” another said. “This will no doubt cause significant problems.”
The matter is being investigated internally, FastMarkets understands, so CME has no official comment at this time.
This is how the market reacted to this clear manipulation...
As we have detailed previously, the ‘fix’ or ‘benchmark’, as it is now known, is still the global benchmark reference price used by central banks, miners, refiners, jewellers and the surrounding financial industry to settle silver-based contracts.
While some traders continue to use the 24-hourly traded spot price, larger players prefer the snapshot-style daily benchmark to settle bulkier contracts on a traditionally over-the-counter (OTC) market.
The price is set every day by six participants – HSBC, JPMorgan Chase Bank, Mitsui & Co Precious Metals, The Bank of Nova Scotia, Toronto Dominion Bank and UBS – using a system run by CME and Thomson Reuters.
CME and Thomson Reuters won the battle to provide the methodology and price platform for the daily process back in July 2014, replacing the 117-year old fix in August that year under sweeping reforms of the entire precious metals complex.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Jueves 27/01/16 Ordenes de bienes duraderos
por Fenix » Jue Ene 28, 2016 8:23 pm
Precious Metals Strategy: Bullion or Jewelry?
01/28/2016 05:55 -0500
Precious Metals Strategy: Bullion or Jewelry?
Written by Jeff Nielson (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)
Bullion confiscation has been a risk and concern which has been analyzed in previous commentaries and examined from different angles, so it’s not surprising that this was also the subject of a recent reader question. Part of the answer to that query raised a new topic: the “anti-bullion confiscation” strategy.
What is the easiest way for silver- and gold-holders to avoid the harm and impact of any bullion confiscation decree which might be announced? The answer is to not hold bullion, or rather, not to acquire all your precious metals holdings in the form of bullion.
By now, most readers are aware that historically, the world’s largest bullion market and thus largest repository of bullion is found in India, distributed amongst its enormous 1+ billion population. Indeed, the comically fraudulent attempt by the bankers to “liberate” some, most, or all of the 20,000 tonnes of gold estimated to be held in India was the subject of a recent commentary.
Despite the large income and wealth disparity in India, the majority of gold and silver held in India is distributed amongst its massive peasant/agrarian population. The majority of this population either refuse to use (or trust) banks, or simply lack access to such financial services altogether.
As a consequence of this reality, the modest amounts of wealth accumulated by these families is invariably held in silver and gold. However, Indians don’t carry their silver or gold in the form of coins, or even store it in the form of bars. They wear it, in the form of jewelry, typically hung around the necks of Indian women.
In North America (and the West, in general), “jewelry” and “bullion” are essentially entirely independent concepts. We buy jewelry for vanity, or to earn the favour of females; we exchange our paper currencies for silver or gold bullion as a preferred strategy for wealth preservation. Perhaps it is time for our populations to eliminate that distinction and merge these two activities into a single strategy.
Regular readers are fully aware of the criminalized nature of our governments and economies, with the nexus of all that corruption emanating from the financial sector (under the control of the banking crime syndicate). The actions of these regimes have become increasingly lawless, with the theft-of-assets known as “the bail-in” being the most extreme example to date.
In such societies, it is no wonder that the concern of bullion confiscation becomes an increasingly larger issue in the minds of precious metals holders. For this reason, “diversifying within the sector” has been a frequent theme of previous commentaries. Hold silver and gold. For those who consider themselves competent to engage in equities investments, spread some of your precious metals holdings into the extremely suppressed and undervalued gold and silver miners as well.
Now we have another example and means of diversifying within the sector: holding our physical silver and gold in the form of bullion and jewelry. We should remember that previous acts of bullion confiscation in Western societies (by the US government in 1933 and 1934) focused exclusively on bullion: coins and bars of gold and silver.
Numismatic coins were exempted from seizure. However, “bullion certificates” were included, thus in any modern confiscation, all bullion held in “funds” or “accounts” would be the first bullion seized. We cannot be certain that numismatic coins would be exempt in any future seizures.
However, there was certainly never any thought given to confiscating silver or gold jewelry in those US seizures. Even the most lawless of regimes would be extremely hesitant to attempt to invoke a jewelry confiscation as part of any broader bullion confiscation perpetrated against our populations.
The arguments against attempting to perpetrate any sort of jewelry theft or confiscation are numerous and powerful, and they begin with our still-strong cultural attachment to the world’s only form of Honest Money. Thanks to decades of anti-bullion brainwashing, only a tiny percentage of our populations currently have the prudence to store some or most of their wealth in the form of silver or gold bullion.
Conversely, all of us, except for the growing population of desperately poor, have at least a few items of gold or silver jewelry in our possessions. Indeed, with respect to the married majority, gold engagement rings and wedding bands are regarded by most as an essential symbol of that commitment. As well (particularly for the younger and/or more avante-garde segment of the population), body-piercing is now endemic in our culture.
Much of our population retains a literal physical attachment to their gold and silver. Meanwhile, for the more affluent, there is perhaps an even stronger wealth attachment to jewelry. For the wealthy of the West, just as with the peasant population of India, gold jewelry (in particular) is a symbol of wealth and status.
For these reasons (and more), it is virtually unthinkable that Western corruption would descend to the invasive extreme of any sort of jewelry confiscation. And for that reason, precious metals holders may decide that now is the time to consider acquiring jewelry as part of their overall wealth preservation strategy.
Here it must be understood that there are pros and cons involved, so even those who are most fearful of bullion confiscation — or simply most enamoured with jewelry — would not want to take this strategy to an extreme. The first con to consider here is cost (and thus efficiency). Swapping our paper for gold or silver jewelry inevitably yields far fewer ounces-per-dollar, as we pay for the craftsmanship involved in the fabrication of the jewelry followed by a retail mark-up that is usually higher than what we experience in swapping our paper for bullion.
We also need to consider the reduced liquidity of jewelry. If one needed to “raise cash” for an item of jewelry today, the options range from bad to worse. Selling jewelry back to a jeweler inevitably has a steep discount attached, meaning we lose for a second time in our paper-for-jewelry strategy. Sinking even lower, we can head to pawn shops to attempt a jewelry-for-cash swap and experience an even greater price shock as we are told what our gold or silver jewelry is (supposedly) worth.
Faced with those concerns, larger and/or wealthier precious metals holders may see foreign storage of their bullion as a means of avoiding both the risk of domestic confiscation and the transaction costs involved in storing our wealth in the form of jewelry. Yet here as well, there is no perfect strategy available.
For even those individuals who choose most wisely in shopping for a “safe” jurisdiction, the risk of bullion confiscation in this second jurisdiction will still be greater than zero. A government which appears honest today could morph into something more sinister tomorrow, or simply a new election can result in a complete change in the political landscape.
Then we have a different form of liquidity concern. Not only is there time (and cost) involved in choosing to retrieve one’s bullion held in a different jurisdiction, but we could face a far more serious impediment as we think through such a strategy.
Suppose we choose to store some of our precious metals holdings overseas, and we do so to escape a potential bullion confiscation event, and then such a seizure does occur. If we cannot legally hold gold or silver bullion, we certainly will not be able to legally ship such bullion back to our own jurisdiction (and possession) if or when we require some of that bullion to satisfy immediate liquidity demands.
Storing a large portion of our wealth overseas essentially implies a commitment to relocate, in any worst-case scenario. If we couldn’t bring our bullion home (over the foreseeable future), then we would need to move to wherever our bullion was stored. No matter how we engage in our diversification-within-the-sector strategy, we find no perfect answer.
Our governments have clearly abandoned the Rule of Law, as witnessed by the systemic, financial crime in which they not only facilitate, but participate. Given this reality, no matter how carefully we plan, we cannot be immune from all potential (lawless) acts administered with brute force by fascist regimes.
We have liquidity concerns. We have safety concerns. We have cost and efficiency concerns. We diversify within the sector, because no one strategy can possibly address all of these concerns. It is thus important for readers to become fully apprised of all their options (and the risks involved), and then to allocate their wealth amongst those options in a manner most personally optimal.
01/28/2016 05:55 -0500
Precious Metals Strategy: Bullion or Jewelry?
Written by Jeff Nielson (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)
Bullion confiscation has been a risk and concern which has been analyzed in previous commentaries and examined from different angles, so it’s not surprising that this was also the subject of a recent reader question. Part of the answer to that query raised a new topic: the “anti-bullion confiscation” strategy.
What is the easiest way for silver- and gold-holders to avoid the harm and impact of any bullion confiscation decree which might be announced? The answer is to not hold bullion, or rather, not to acquire all your precious metals holdings in the form of bullion.
By now, most readers are aware that historically, the world’s largest bullion market and thus largest repository of bullion is found in India, distributed amongst its enormous 1+ billion population. Indeed, the comically fraudulent attempt by the bankers to “liberate” some, most, or all of the 20,000 tonnes of gold estimated to be held in India was the subject of a recent commentary.
Despite the large income and wealth disparity in India, the majority of gold and silver held in India is distributed amongst its massive peasant/agrarian population. The majority of this population either refuse to use (or trust) banks, or simply lack access to such financial services altogether.
As a consequence of this reality, the modest amounts of wealth accumulated by these families is invariably held in silver and gold. However, Indians don’t carry their silver or gold in the form of coins, or even store it in the form of bars. They wear it, in the form of jewelry, typically hung around the necks of Indian women.
In North America (and the West, in general), “jewelry” and “bullion” are essentially entirely independent concepts. We buy jewelry for vanity, or to earn the favour of females; we exchange our paper currencies for silver or gold bullion as a preferred strategy for wealth preservation. Perhaps it is time for our populations to eliminate that distinction and merge these two activities into a single strategy.
Regular readers are fully aware of the criminalized nature of our governments and economies, with the nexus of all that corruption emanating from the financial sector (under the control of the banking crime syndicate). The actions of these regimes have become increasingly lawless, with the theft-of-assets known as “the bail-in” being the most extreme example to date.
In such societies, it is no wonder that the concern of bullion confiscation becomes an increasingly larger issue in the minds of precious metals holders. For this reason, “diversifying within the sector” has been a frequent theme of previous commentaries. Hold silver and gold. For those who consider themselves competent to engage in equities investments, spread some of your precious metals holdings into the extremely suppressed and undervalued gold and silver miners as well.
Now we have another example and means of diversifying within the sector: holding our physical silver and gold in the form of bullion and jewelry. We should remember that previous acts of bullion confiscation in Western societies (by the US government in 1933 and 1934) focused exclusively on bullion: coins and bars of gold and silver.
Numismatic coins were exempted from seizure. However, “bullion certificates” were included, thus in any modern confiscation, all bullion held in “funds” or “accounts” would be the first bullion seized. We cannot be certain that numismatic coins would be exempt in any future seizures.
However, there was certainly never any thought given to confiscating silver or gold jewelry in those US seizures. Even the most lawless of regimes would be extremely hesitant to attempt to invoke a jewelry confiscation as part of any broader bullion confiscation perpetrated against our populations.
The arguments against attempting to perpetrate any sort of jewelry theft or confiscation are numerous and powerful, and they begin with our still-strong cultural attachment to the world’s only form of Honest Money. Thanks to decades of anti-bullion brainwashing, only a tiny percentage of our populations currently have the prudence to store some or most of their wealth in the form of silver or gold bullion.
Conversely, all of us, except for the growing population of desperately poor, have at least a few items of gold or silver jewelry in our possessions. Indeed, with respect to the married majority, gold engagement rings and wedding bands are regarded by most as an essential symbol of that commitment. As well (particularly for the younger and/or more avante-garde segment of the population), body-piercing is now endemic in our culture.
Much of our population retains a literal physical attachment to their gold and silver. Meanwhile, for the more affluent, there is perhaps an even stronger wealth attachment to jewelry. For the wealthy of the West, just as with the peasant population of India, gold jewelry (in particular) is a symbol of wealth and status.
For these reasons (and more), it is virtually unthinkable that Western corruption would descend to the invasive extreme of any sort of jewelry confiscation. And for that reason, precious metals holders may decide that now is the time to consider acquiring jewelry as part of their overall wealth preservation strategy.
Here it must be understood that there are pros and cons involved, so even those who are most fearful of bullion confiscation — or simply most enamoured with jewelry — would not want to take this strategy to an extreme. The first con to consider here is cost (and thus efficiency). Swapping our paper for gold or silver jewelry inevitably yields far fewer ounces-per-dollar, as we pay for the craftsmanship involved in the fabrication of the jewelry followed by a retail mark-up that is usually higher than what we experience in swapping our paper for bullion.
We also need to consider the reduced liquidity of jewelry. If one needed to “raise cash” for an item of jewelry today, the options range from bad to worse. Selling jewelry back to a jeweler inevitably has a steep discount attached, meaning we lose for a second time in our paper-for-jewelry strategy. Sinking even lower, we can head to pawn shops to attempt a jewelry-for-cash swap and experience an even greater price shock as we are told what our gold or silver jewelry is (supposedly) worth.
Faced with those concerns, larger and/or wealthier precious metals holders may see foreign storage of their bullion as a means of avoiding both the risk of domestic confiscation and the transaction costs involved in storing our wealth in the form of jewelry. Yet here as well, there is no perfect strategy available.
For even those individuals who choose most wisely in shopping for a “safe” jurisdiction, the risk of bullion confiscation in this second jurisdiction will still be greater than zero. A government which appears honest today could morph into something more sinister tomorrow, or simply a new election can result in a complete change in the political landscape.
Then we have a different form of liquidity concern. Not only is there time (and cost) involved in choosing to retrieve one’s bullion held in a different jurisdiction, but we could face a far more serious impediment as we think through such a strategy.
Suppose we choose to store some of our precious metals holdings overseas, and we do so to escape a potential bullion confiscation event, and then such a seizure does occur. If we cannot legally hold gold or silver bullion, we certainly will not be able to legally ship such bullion back to our own jurisdiction (and possession) if or when we require some of that bullion to satisfy immediate liquidity demands.
Storing a large portion of our wealth overseas essentially implies a commitment to relocate, in any worst-case scenario. If we couldn’t bring our bullion home (over the foreseeable future), then we would need to move to wherever our bullion was stored. No matter how we engage in our diversification-within-the-sector strategy, we find no perfect answer.
Our governments have clearly abandoned the Rule of Law, as witnessed by the systemic, financial crime in which they not only facilitate, but participate. Given this reality, no matter how carefully we plan, we cannot be immune from all potential (lawless) acts administered with brute force by fascist regimes.
We have liquidity concerns. We have safety concerns. We have cost and efficiency concerns. We diversify within the sector, because no one strategy can possibly address all of these concerns. It is thus important for readers to become fully apprised of all their options (and the risks involved), and then to allocate their wealth amongst those options in a manner most personally optimal.
- Fenix
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