Jueves 04/02/16 Ordenes de fabricas

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Oil up 33.07

Ag up 14.91

Europa a la baja

-44.75

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+5.62

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+49.89

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+124.54

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Se anunciaron 75,114 despidos en Enero.

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La productividad bajo 3%, el costo subio 4.5%

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Las ordenes de fabricas bajaron mas de lo esperado o 2.9% vs 2.8%

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El dolar se debilita.

+117.86

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+136.93

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Dollar Continues to Fall Ahead of Jobs Report

By
Ira Iosebashvili

Updated Feb. 4, 2016 10:18 a.m. ET
The dollar retreated further Thursday, as investors cut their positions in the currency ahead of key U.S. economic data at the end of the week.

The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which measures the buck against a basket of 16 currencies, was recently down 0.7% at 89.24, the lowest level since early November, amid losses against the euro, yen and a host of other currencies.

A teller counts Japanese yen to exchange them into U.S. dollars at a foreign exchange booth in Tokyo. The dollar dropped sharply against the yen and its other rivals on Thursday. ENLARGE
A teller counts Japanese yen to exchange them into U.S. dollars at a foreign exchange booth in Tokyo. The dollar dropped sharply against the yen and its other rivals on Thursday. Photo: Reuters

Investors have been fleeing the dollar in recent days, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve won't be able to raise rates as much as expected this year due to soft growth in the U.S. and turbulent global markets. Low rates for longer weigh on the U.S. currency, as they make the dollar less attractive to yield-seeking investors. The greenback has now fallen 2.6% against a basket of currencies in February.

Traders will be keeping a close eye on January employment data due out Friday, as many believe the numbers offer the clearest estimation of how well the U.S. economy is performing.

The dollar’s recent move “clearly tells us that the Fed is the only central bank that the market really cares about,” said Steven Barrow, an analyst at Standard Bank, in a note to clients. “If it is thinking in terms of stalling the rate hikes—or reversing the one that’s happened—the dollar is going to go down.”

Fed-funds futures, used by investors and traders to place bets on central-bank policy, showed Wednesday that they see only an 8% likelihood of a rate increase from the Fed at its March policy meeting, according to data from CME Group.

The probability was 34% before the Fed’s Jan. 27 interest-rate statement. Late last year it was more than 50%.

The dollar was recently down 0.7% at ¥117.02. The euro was up 0.8% at 1.1197. The U.S. currency was down 1% against the Brazilian real, at 3.85, and lost 2.5% versus the Russian ruble, at 75.65.

Write to Ira Iosebashvili at ira.iosebashvili@wsj.com

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U.S. Stocks Rise, Recovering From Early Losses

By
Riva Gold
Updated Feb. 4, 2016 10:27 a.m. ET
U.S. stocks were broadly higher on Thursday morning, despite continued challenges for the dollar.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 95 points, or 0.6%, to 16432 after being down earlier. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.5%.

The Stoxx Europe 600 was down 0.9% in afternoon trade after gaining in the first half of the session.

The renewed fall in share prices served as a reminder to traders and analysts that even as stocks have had slight bouncebacks, broader markets continue to slump lower. Indeed, since the start of the year, about half of the U.S. stock-trading sessions have ended higher, however stocks remain more than 6% lower in that period.

And many traders say they expect this trend to continue.

“We’re going to be in this pattern for a while,” said Peter Costa, a trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and president of Empire Executions Inc. “It’s the same repeated story about oil, about the dollar, and how that hits stocks. We’re almost bored with it.”

European mining shares gained as copper futures hit a three-month high, but the auto sector fell sharply as the euro appreciated against the dollar.

Trading in Europe was volatile after the European Union cut its growth forecasts for the eurozone and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi defended the fight against low inflation in a speech Thursday morning.

Mr. Draghi signaled last month that the bank would reconsider its stimulus measures in March, boosting stocks and depressing the euro. But Thursday, his remarks sent the euro up 0.6% against the dollar to $1.1180, a high not seen since October.

Investors likely had been hoping for a much more explicit hint about further ECB-easing measures, said Vasileios Gkionakis, head of global FX strategy at UniCredit Research. “It seems the market wants to look through all the recent central bank rhetoric” after the ECB disappointed in December, he said.

In other currencies, the dollar fell 0.7% against the yen to ¥117.1140, while the pound was down 0.4% against the dollar at $1.4652 after the Bank of England cut its growth forecasts for the U.K. economy.

The dollar already had fallen sharply against the euro and yen Wednesday as investors dialed back expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, boosting the price of oil and other dollar-denominated commodities.

Earlier, Asian markets ended higher as energy and mining shares rose. Australia’s S&P ASX 200 gained 2.2%, while the Shanghai Composite Index added 1.5%.

Oil rigs are being stacked in the Cromarty Firth, Invergordon, Scotland, amid the oil-price rout. Oil prices were mixed in choppy trade Thursday. ENLARGE
Oil rigs are being stacked in the Cromarty Firth, Invergordon, Scotland, amid the oil-price rout. Oil prices were mixed in choppy trade Thursday. Photo: Getty Images

Thursday’s moves followed a choppy session Wednesday on Wall Street, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 193 points before closing higher on a rebound in energy shares.

Despite recent gains, stock markets look set to remain volatile until energy prices find long-term stability and investors achieve clarity on plans by the world’s central banks.

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said financial conditions were reshaping the outlook in a way that could cause the Fed to delay additional rate raises.

Fed officials consider inflation and labor-market data as they debate when to next raise interest rates.

On Thursday, initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs across the U.S., rose 8,000 to 285,000 in the week ended Jan. 30, the Labor Department said. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast 278,000 new claims.

Claims have risen for three of the past four weeks, suggesting the labor market may be cooling slightly after strong hiring in December.

“The Fed is proceeding down a path toward rate normalization at a time when economic growth both at home and abroad is fragile,” said Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, which manages roughly $128 billion in assets.

Global financial markets have been hit this year by concerns around the Chinese economy and currency, volatility in oil prices, and concerns around global growth.

Meanwhile, U.S. fourth-quarter earnings have so far mostly weakened in line with expectations, but some companies have flagged concerns about the outlook.

In European corporate news, Credit Suisse Group reported a large fourth-quarter loss. Shares fell 11%.

Shares in Royal Dutch Shell PLC were up 6% despite announcing a steep slump in fourth-quarter profits.

-Corrie Driebusch contributed to this article

Write to Riva Gold at riva.gold@wsj.com

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VIX up 21.91

OIl up 32.48

Ag up 14.86

+69.28

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+18.11

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+34.24

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Oil down 32.11