por Fenix » Dom Feb 07, 2016 11:55 pm
2016 EPS Growth Estimates Slashed By 50% Just
One Month Into The Year
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/07/2016 - 15:58
We open it up to readers to determine in how
many weeks will full year 2016 EPS be revised
tom 4.3% as of the start of the year, to 2.2%
currently, to negative, indicating at least 7 consecutive quarters of declining EPS, something not recorded even during the peak of the financial crisis. Incidentally, an earnings recession is two consecutive negative quarters of EPS: we don't know what the
technical term is for seven
The Number Everyone's Been Waiting For: Chinese Reserves
Plunge By $100BN - What Does It Mean For Markets?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/07/2016 17:22 -0500
Bear Market Capital Markets China goldman sachs Goldman Sachs Volatility Yuan As we previewed on Thursday, the biggest event of the week, and perhaps of the month, was not Friday's nonfarm payroll report, but the
January update of China's FX reserves, which the PBOC released last
night. The number came out at $3.2309 trillion, down $99.5 billion from
the prior month, and $8 billion less than the December outflow of $107.6
billion. And even as China added $3.4 billion to its gold reserves, which rose to
$63.6 billion or an increase of half a million ounces to 56.66 million, this
reduced the total amount of Chinese foreign reserves to the lowest level
since May 2012, and down from the $4 trillion peak in the summer of
2014 when the US Dollar started its rapid appreciation on rate hike
concerns, and led to nearly a trillion dollars in Chinese capital outflows. What's Sign up for personalised news updates to help you trade successfully News.Markets Open a Forex Account and Get 60% Bonus on All Deposits. IronFX Recently, an important question that has emerged is for how much
longer can China sustain its FX intervention before tapping out and
letting the hedge funds win with their short Yuan bets once total
reserves drop below the critical redline of approximately $2.7 trillion as
calculated by the IMF - the answer is between 5 months and 10 months
assuming monthly reserve burn rates of $130BN to $60BN. That, however, is a bridge we will cross some time in the summer of
2016. For now the real question is what does the January Chinese FX outflow mean for risk come Monday's open, and how will it affect markets when
they start opening tonight, if not in China which is closed for the week
for its new year celebrations. Recall that in our Thursday preview we warned that according to one of the more prominent bears from BofA, Michael Hartnett, had the reserve
outflow come in well below expected, it would unleash a "vicious bear market rally." This is what we said: That said, keep in mind that BofA itself had a far more optimistic
forecast than consensus: And then there was Goldman, because just as a far smaller than
expected number would be very bullish, so a far greater outflow would
be bearish. According to estimates by Goldman Sachs, not only did
outflows not slow down as dramatically as BofA believes, but they in
fact soared to an all time high $185 billion in January. This is what Goldman said: "There has been around $USD 185bn of
intervention (with the recent intervention predominantly taking place in
the onshore market)" split roughly $143 billion on the domestic side and
$42 billion on the offshore Yuan side." In the last few days, Goldman
actually bumped up this forecast to $197 billion to account for valuation
adjustments. This is how we concluded: The actual number (whether it is fabricated or not, and since this is
China, all bets are on the former) came in at $100 billion, modestly
below the consensus estimate of $120 billion, well below the Goldman
worst case scenario of $197 billion, and well above the BofA "best
case" of 37.5 billion. Or smack in the middle of a Goldilocksian no man's land. What does it mean for markets? Ironically, this may have been the
most unfavorable outcome, because had China admitted the true
severity of its outflows, there would have been a downward flush in
asset prices, after which the market could focus more on fundamentals
and rise from there with the Chinese capital outflow threat no longer
dangling overhead; alternatively, a shockingly small number would have crushed the shorts only to let them re-establish bearish positions after
the initial spike higher. As it stands now, however, what is really happening with the biggest
risk factor to commodity, credit and capital markets, remains a
mystery, and instead of getting some much needed clarity from China's
January reserve number, the world's traders and investors will now have
to wait for the February reserve update one month from now to learn if
China has managed to slay its capital outflow demons, or if these were just getting started. For markets, what this means is that the next month will likely be
market by more of the same sharp, illiquid volatility that has
characterized 2016 so far.