Viernes 12/02/16 Ventas retail, inventarios de negocios

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Viernes

Eventos economicos

Ventas retail
Precios de los importadores y exportadores
Habla Rob Kaplan
Inventarios de negocios
Sentimiento del consumidor
Habla Dudley
Conteo de plataformas de negocios

Retail Sales
[Report][Star]8:30 AM ET

Import and Export Prices
[Report][djStar]8:30 AM ET

Rob Kaplan Speaks
9:45 AM ET

Business Inventories
[Report][djStar]10:00 AM ET

Consumer Sentiment
[Report][djStar]10:00 AM ET

William Dudley Speaks
10:00 AM ET

Baker-Hughes Rig Count
[Bullet1:00 PM ET

[admin]

Commodities & Futures
10:19 PM EST 2/11/2016
Futures LAST CHANGE % CHG
See all Futures
Crude Oil 27.52 1.31 5.00%
Brent Crude 32.04 1.26 4.09%
Natural Gas 1.995 0.001 0.05%
Gasoline 0.9820 0.0403 4.28%
Gold 1237.4 -10.4 -0.83%
Silver 15.715 -0.079 -0.50%
Corn 360.75 0.50 0.14%
Wheat 459.8 1.5 0.33%
E-mini DJIA 15617 5 0.03%
E-mini S&P 500 1827.00 2.50 0.14%

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LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.1311 -0.0014
Yen (USD/JPY) 112.40 -0.02
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.4462 -0.0016
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7106 -0.0003
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9738 0.0013
WSJ Dollar Index 88.84 0.07
Futures10:19 PM EST 2/11/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 27.51 1.30 4.96%
Brent Crude 31.39 1.33 4.42%
Gold 1237.6 -10.2 -0.82%
Silver 15.710 -0.084 -0.53%
E-mini DJIA 15620 8 0.05%
E-mini S&P 500 1827.00 2.50 0.14%

Government Bonds10:29 PM EST 2/11/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year -4/32 1.674
German 10 Year 0/32 0.190
Japan 10 Year -2/32 0.021

[admin]

Japon 5% a la baja

LAST CHANGE % CHG
Get index data by Email
Japan: Nikkei 225 14874.65 -838.74 -5.34%
Hang Seng 18340.16 -205.64 -1.11%
Shanghai Composite 2763.49 -17.53 -0.63%
S&P BSE Sensex 22951.83 -807.07 -3.40%
Australia: S&P/ASX 4771.00 -50.10 -1.04%
UK: FTSE 100 5536.97 -135.33 -2.39%
DJIA 15660.18 -254.56 -1.60%
Asia Dow 2396.13 -40.21 -1.65%
Global Dow 2034.85 -12.59 -0.61%

[admin]

Banco Central de Perú eleva tasa de interés de referencia a 4,25 pct
jueves 11 de febrero de 2016 20:06 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
LIMA (Reuters) - El Banco Central de Perú subió el jueves su tasa de interés de referencia en 25 puntos básicos a un 4,25 por ciento, marcando el tercer incremento mensual consecutivo, en medio de mayores expectativas inflacionarias que podrían "retroalimentar" una aceleración de los precios.

La decisión de la entidad monetaria estuvo en sintonía con lo que esperaba la mayoría de los analistas encuestados por Reuters

El banco había incrementado el costo del crédito en diciembre y enero debido a un avance de la inflación, que se encuentra por encima del rango objetivo de entre 1 y 3 por ciento.

"La inflación ha sido afectada por factores temporales de oferta tales como el aumento de precios de algunos alimentos y servicios públicos y por la depreciación cambiaria", dijo el banco en su comunicado de política monetaria para febrero.

"Estos incrementos en los precios al consumidor han afectado a la inflación esperada, ubicándola por encima del rango meta, lo cual puede retroalimentar a la inflación", agregó.

La inflación de enero fue de 0,37 por ciento, mientras que a tasa anualizada subió a un 4,61 por ciento.

Asimismo, la moneda peruana acumula en el año una depreciación de casi un 3 por ciento, lo que presiona la evolución de los precios al consumidor en la plaza local.

"Creemos que la depreciación actual obligará Banco Central a elevar su tasa clave al menos una vez antes de que asuma el mando el próximo Gobierno (a fines de julio)", afirmó Pedro Tuesta, analista de 4CAST.

El Banco Central dijo asimismo que los indicadores de la producción y las expectativas empresariales señalaron un ciclo económico con tasas de crecimiento del Producto Interno Bruto menores a su potencial hasta el tercer trimestre del 2015, pero con un crecimiento del PIB mayor en el último trimestre del año.

"Para el 2016 se estima que la economía estará creciendo a una tasa similar a la de su potencial", refirió el organismo.

Perú espera para este año una expansión entre un 3,5 por ciento y un 4 por ciento, mayor al 2,8 por ciento que habría registrado en 2015.

(Reporte de Marco Aquino, editado por Ursula Scoll

[admin]

Banco Central de Chile deja estable tasa clave en 3,5 pct, como esperaba el mercado
jueves 11 de febrero de 2016 18:10 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
SANTIAGO (Reuters) - El Banco Central de Chile mantuvo el jueves la tasa de interés referencial en 3,5 por ciento, como esperaba el mercado, en medio de una alta inflación y una persistente debilidad de la actividad económica.

La estabilidad de la Tasa de Política Monetaria (TPM) en febrero se enmarca en un ciclo de gradual de retiro de estímulo monetario, luego de que en diciembre el Banco Central subió un cuarto de punto porcentual el tipo rector.

"La trayectoria futura de la TPM contempla ajustes pausados para asegurar la convergencia de la inflación a la meta, a un ritmo que dependerá de la nueva información que se acumule y de sus implicancias sobre la inflación", dijo el ente en un comunicado.

En los 12 meses a enero, la inflación acumuló un alza del 4,8 por ciento, muy por encima del rango de tolerancia del Banco Central de 2,0 a 4,0 por ciento; mientras que el indicador subyacente llegó en 0,7 por ciento en el primer mes.

Para contrarrestar la tendencia, el Banco Central inició a finales del 2015 un ciclo de incremento gradual de la TPM, subiéndola un cuarto de punto porcentual en octubre y diciembre para dejarla en el 3,5 por ciento.

"El débil crecimiento de la demanda interna y de las variables que la determinan, junto con un sector externo volátil y que ha convergido a un escenario donde las políticas monetarias expansivas de los países desarrollados en especial Estados Unidos estarán presentes por un mayor tiempo, justifican que la TPM se mantenga inalterada", dijo el Banco Santander.

Pese a que el mercado no esperaba ningún cambio de la tasa rectora este mes, las expectativas son de una nueva alza de 25 puntos base en durante el segundo trimestre.

La economía chilena atraviesa por una desaceleración debido principalmente al desplome en los precios internacionales del cobre, la principal exportación del país.

(Reporte de Fabián Andrés Cambero. Editado por Felipe Iturrieta y Silene Ramírez)

[admin]

http://lat.wsj.com/articles/SB108795129 ... 92?tesla=y

[Fenix]

OPEC Will Not Blink First
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 14:05
An OPEC production cut is unlikely until U.S.
production declines by about another million
barrels per day (mmbpd). OPEC won’t cut because it would accomplish nothing
beyond a short-term increase in price. Carefully placed comments by OPEC and Russian oil ministers about the possibility of production cuts achieve almost the same price increase as an actual cut. The focus going forward must be on the source of the problem. That is the United
States and not OPEC.
The Great Reset
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 13:35
Remember it was the BOJ that stepped in
October of 2014 at 1970, and again in October
of 2015 at 1970 again. The Japanese bought Yellen a year of time, and gave her a market
of 2070 to hike rates. Now that the market has fallen back to the August low, it is the
BOJ who has turned their monetary policy to
negative rates. What does this tell the market? That after attempting to pump it twice above 1970, with the market at
1870 they have switched to negative rates. Sign of desperation? So far the market is not buying it.

The Crash In US Bank Stocks Is Only Half-Way
Through
Submitted by Tyler D.02/11/2016 - 13:21
It appears by the total lack of coverage that
the utter collapse of Europe's banking system
is entirely irrelevant to the "fortress-like"
balance sheets of US banks... but it is not.
Once again today, US financials saw bonds dumped across the senior and subordinated segments and while US
financial stocks have fallen hard year-to-date, if credit is right - and it usually is on a cyclical basis - US bank stocks have a long way
to go (as believe in book values is battered).

[Fenix]

Moments After Oil Crashes To 12 Year Lows,
"OPEC Headline" Sends It Surging Again
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 14:34
Seconds after Oil hit the lows and NYMEX
closed - and S&P broke the critical 1812 level,
this hit: *OPEC READY TO COOPERATE ON CUT,
UAE ENERGY MIN SAYS: WSJ So, first it was Venezuela speaking for the
Saudis, then it was Russia speaking for the Saudis, now it is the UAE.
Even WSJ Admits OPEC Production Cut Story "May

Be Bogus"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 15:03
"Look, the OPEC thing may turn out to be bogus. Lord knows we’ve heard that line too many times to count, and oil’s at $26/barrel."


It Was Never About Oil, Part 2: It Was Always
Leverage & Volatility
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 15:20
Unfortunately, we remain stuck in the cleanup
phase so long as economists and their ability to direct policy continue to suggest
the Great Recession was anything other
than systemic revelation along these lines; a permanent rift between what was and what can be. It is and was never about oil; only now that oil projects
volatility into the dying days of eurodollar leverage.
Putting It All Together: When Does The Junk Bond
Sell Off End, And When Should One Buy
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 15:06
Bottom line, our conversations with investors
suggest yields in the 20 – 25% context could be attractive enough to draw in marginal
capital – although several investors noted
that is reasonable for triple C risk excluding
commodities. In short, we're not there yet.

[Fenix]

Through The Looking Glass On Rates
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 17:40
Negative interest rates act effectively as a
hidden tax funneled directly to banks. They
are inherently unhealthy. Currently, they could indicate also a measure of unease
among two of the four most powerful central
banks. If so, that could well escalate.

Subprime Auto Is "NOT" The Next Big Short, Citi
Insists
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 17:15
"It seems like too many people have seen the
movie 'The Big Short' and are starting to think
the movie heroes’ short strategy would
translate to the ABS market. It’s not wise to
believe everything you see in a movie and hit films are not the best source for trade ideas."

Oil Headline Rescues Stocks From Bloodbath As
Precious Metals Soar
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 17:02


"Billions Lost"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 16:25
"While buybacks work great during bull market
advances, as individuals willfully overlook the
fundamentals in hopes of further price gains, the eventual collision of reality with fantasy
has been a nasty event..."

This Is What Central Bank Failure Looks Like (Part
3)
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 15:55
First, it was The BoJ's utter collapse from
omnipotence to impotence. Then came the collapse of The Fed's credibility in the short-
term. And now, in the most egregious example of total central bank failure - the 'market' has priced out any chance
of a rate hike through 2018... and in fact, there is now a greater chance of a rate-cut (than rate-hike) into 2017

[Fenix]

Here Is The Real Reason Why Authorities Want To
Ban High Denomination Bank Notes
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 18:57
Here is the real reason why suddenly high
denomination bank notes are the target: it is
not because "drug dealers" and tax-evaders
use them, but because between banning
Europe's €500 bill and the US $100 bill, over half of all physical currency currently in circulation would
disappear.

JPM: "Things Have Gotten Out Of Control: People
Have More Confidence In Gold Than In Paper
Money"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 18:52
"...gold at $1,200 an ounce, what does that tell
you? It tells you that in a flight to quality, in a
safe haven, people have more confidence in gold than in bank deposits or paper money.
I think things have gotten out of control." - Bob Michele, Global CIO & Head, Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Group"

Jeff Gundlach: Gold To $1,400 As Faith In Central
Banks Is Lost
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 18:49
In his latest communication with the outside
world, Gundlach said that gold prices are likely
to reach $1400 an ounce "as investors lose
faith in central banks", Reuters reported. "The evidence that negative rates are harmful
and not helpful has piled up to the point that the 'In Central Banks We Trust' mantra has finally been laid
bare as a hoax,"

If You Want To Be Wealthy, Don't Buy A House -
Build A Business
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 18:46
The key take-away: focus on owning income-
producing assets, not a primary residence. Don't finance your assets with debt; finance your income-producing assets with savings
and sweat equity, not borrowed money.

Here Is The Real Reason Why Authorities Want To
Ban High Denomination Bank Notes Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/11/2016 - 18:57 Here is the real reason why suddenly high
denomination bank notes are the target: it is
not because "drug dealers" and tax-evaders
use them, but because between banning
Europe's €500 bill and the US $100 bill, over half of all physical currency currently in circulation would
disappear.

JPM: "Things Have Gotten Out Of Control: People
Have More Confidence In Gold Than In Paper
Money"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 18:52 "...gold at $1,200 an ounce, what does that tell
you? It tells you that in a flight to quality, in a
safe haven, people have more confidence in gold than in bank deposits or paper money.
I think things have gotten out of control." - Bob Michele, Global CIO & Head, Global Fixed Income, Currency & Commodities Group"

Jeff Gundlach: Gold To $1,400 As Faith In Central
Banks Is Lost
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 18:49 In his latest communication with the outside
world, Gundlach said that gold prices are likely
to reach $1400 an ounce "as investors lose
faith in central banks", Reuters reported. "The evidence that negative rates are harmful
and not helpful has piled up to the point that the 'In Central Banks We Trust' mantra has finally been laid
bare as a hoax,"

If You Want To Be Wealthy, Don't Buy A House -
Build A Business
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 18:46 The key take-away: focus on owning income-
producing assets, not a primary residence. Don't finance your assets with debt; finance your income-producing assets with savings
and sweat equity, not borrowed money.

[Fenix]

This Is What Central Bank Failure Looks Like (Part
4)
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 22:00 First, it was The BoJ's utter collapse from
omnipotence to impotence. Then came the collapse of The Fed's credibility in the short-
term.... and the longer-term. And now it is the turn of Mario Draghi's ECB to face total failure, as the European banking system - the prime beneficiary of "whatever it takes" - has crashed back to pre-Draghi levels.

JPM's Kolanovic Warns Upcoming Recession
Could Be Comparable To 2008 Crisis; Says "Buy
Gold, Cash And VIX"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 21:33 "Gglobal markets are now facing a significant
‘negative wealth effect’ that has a potential to
result in a recession. This negative wealth
effect of low commodity prices and a strong
USD combined with the slowdown in China could be comparable to that of the 2008/2009 crisis (it involves diverse effects ranging from layoffs in the Global Energy sector to a lack of EM Sovereign wealth flowing
into developed market equity hedge funds). While the economists
were debating if the low-priced oil is good or bad for the economy, the
equity markets never had any doubts – Oil and Equities were moving
down together."

Crushing The "Oil's Just A Supply Issue" Meme In
1 Painful Chart
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 21:10 Day after day we are told that the plunge in oil
prices (just like the collapse in The Baltic Dry
freight index) is a "supply" issue... it's
transitory and global demand is doing fine
thank you very much. Sadly, as everyone
really knows deep down inside their Keynesian hearts, this is utter crap and as Barclays shows the shocking 18% YoY crash in distillates "demand" - something that has never happened outside of a recession - blows the one-sided argument of the energy complex out of the
water.

Abewrongics - 16 Months Of Japanese Money-
Printing For Nothing
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 21:03 Neither USDJPY nor Japanese stocks can
hold a bid in the early going in Asia
markets which has dragged both into the red post-QQE2. Since Kuroda took over from The
Fed by doubling down on his cunning plan in October 2014, Japanese stocks are down 11.4%, USDJPY is
unchanged, and only Japanese bonds have made any gains (up
3.7%). So what we want to know is - how will Abe et al. explain to the Japanese people how they lost so much of their retirement
funds by forcing GPIF to allocate so much to stocks?

HSBC Cancels Pay Freeze After Two Weeks
Following "Staff Revolt"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 20:45 “We have listened to feedback and as a result
decided to change the way these cost savings
are to be achieved"...

The War On Cash - The Central Banks' Survival
Campaign
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 20:20 "The preservation of an insolvent currency system requires that the owners of currency have no way to protect it..."

Iran Holds Nothing Back: "It's A Weird Suicide
Mission That Will Have A Very Dark End"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 20:00 “This would mean a regional war. Mistakes
can’t be tolerated, especially with the tension
mounting around the region. It’s not about
Iranians, but about all troops on the ground
fighting with the Syrian army. How would the Syrian army deal with a foreign country on its soil, without its permission, and maybe aiming [guns] at
them?

[Fenix]

Is This The Biggest Crisis In History?
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 15:40 The previous "biggest crisis in history" was in 1893 when a serious economic depresion hit
America... we just topped that in terms of "crisis"

Lines Around The Block To Buy Gold In London;
Banks Placing "Unusually Large Orders For
Physical"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 12:16 This is the best quarterly performance for Gold in 30 years... "It’s been crazy – it’s been the best week since 2012. We’ve had
people queuing round the block..."

Canada Sells Nearly Half Of All Its Gold Reserves
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 23:12 The government of Canada sold off nearly half
its gold reserves in recent weeks, continuing a
pattern of moving away from the precious
metal as a government asset. According to the
International Monetary Fund’s International
Financial Statistics, Canada held three tonnes of gold reserves as of late 2015. The latest
data, published last week, show the total
Canadian gold reserves now stand at 1.7 tonnes. That’s just 0.1 per cent of the country’s total reserves.

If Credit Is Right, The S&P Is Facing A 40% Crash
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/11/2016 - 22:50 ...and credit is always right in the end!

[Fenix]

¿Qué podría mover hoy a los mercados? La preapertura vista por ETX Capital
Viernes, 12 de Febrero del 2016 - 07:53 “El agua no puede atarse con una soga” es un comentario que mi amigo Anders, que trabaja en un gran banco de inversión de Londres, me dijo anoche al hablar de los mercados. La riada de caídas de las bolsas no se contiene ni con cuerdas ni con sacos de arena, porque obedece ahora a los sentimientos de los inversores y no a la caída o no del precio del crudo. Observamos niveles de hace meses o incluso años en algunas bolsas pero también alturas inimaginables hace unas semanas en el EURUSD o el oro, o un yen tan fuerte que complica enormemente la difícil economía nipona. Y mientras tanto, el gigante asiático duerme su fiesta de una semana del Año Nuevo. A ver si cuando despierte el domingo por la noche ruge con fuerza y nos espabila a todos. Buenos Días y feliz viernes y fin de semana. Nuevos desplomes de la bolsa de Tokio, que se ha venido abajo un 4,84% aunque superó el 5% durante la jornada, Hong Kong baja un 0,89% y Sidney un 1,16%. El EURUSD está en 1,1307, viniendo de 1,1334 y habiendo hecho mínimo en 1,1291. El USDJPY ha llegado hasta 111,89 yenes por dólar pero ahora está en 112,04. El oro ha oscilado entre 1232,6 y 1243,6 dólares la onza y lo tenemos en este momento en 1242,7. El petróleo sube, un 1,48% el Brent hasta 31,51 dólares el barril y un 0,59% el WTI a 27,44 dólares por barril. Los futuros de los índices bursátiles europeos y americanos vienen con descensos en torno al 0,35% para los primeros y del 0,20% para los segundos. LO QUE HOY PODRÍA MOVER A LOS MERCADOS Hoy hay una carga importante de datos, comenzando a las 08:00 con Alemania, IPC, PIB e índice de precios mayoristas. A las 08:45, en Francia, nóminas no agrícolas. A las 09:00 en España, inflación e IPC. A las 10:00 en Italia y en la Eurozona, PIB. A las 11:00, producción industrial de la Eurozona. En EE.UU., a las 14:30, ventas al por menor, índices de precios de importación y exportación. A las 16:00, índice de sentimiento de la universidad de Michigan y finalmente a esa misma hora el discurso de Dudley, de la Fed.

[Comodoro]

Los gráficos del día,
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