Viernes 12/02/16 Ventas retail, inventarios de negocios

[Fenix]

The "Trade Of The Year" Just Returned 30% In Two Days
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/12/2016 - 15:11

CHESAPEAKE SAID PLANNING TO PAY $500 MILLION DEBT DUE IN MARCH



This Is The NIRP "Doom Loop" That Threatens To Wipeout Banks And The Global Economy
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/12/2016 15:26 -0500

Remember the vicious cycle that threatened the entire European banking sector in 2012?

It went something like this: over indebted sovereigns depended on domestic banks to buy their debt, but when yields on that debt spiked, the banks took a hit, inhibiting their ability to fund the sovereign, whose yields would then rise some more, further curtailing banks’ ability to help out, and so on and so forth.

Well don’t look now, but central bankers’ headlong plunge into NIRP-dom has created another “doom loop” whereby negative rates weaken banks whose profits are already crimped by the new regulatory regime, sharply lower revenue from trading, and billions in fines. Weak banks then pull back on lending, thus weakening the economy further and compelling policy makers to take rates even lower in a self-perpetuating death spiral. Meanwhile, bank stocks plunge raising questions about the entire sector's viability and that, in turn, raises the specter of yet another financial market meltdown.

Below, find the diagram that illustrates this dynamic followed by a bit of color from WSJ:

From WSJ:

In a way, the move below zero was a gamble. The theory went like this: Banks would take a hit, but negative rates would get the economy moving. A stronger economy would, in turn, help the banks recover.


It appears that wager isn’t working.


The consequences are deeply worrying. Weak banks may now drag the economy down further. And with the economy weak and deflation—a damaging spiral of falling wages and prices—looming, central banks that have gone negative will be loath to turn around and raise rates.


Moreover, central banks have few other levers to escape that doom loop. The ECB has instituted a bond-buying program, but President Mario Draghi last month indicated he was ready to launch additional monetary stimulus in March. Japan’s decision to implement negative rates follows three years of aggressive monetary easing, aimed at ending two decades of low inflation and stagnant growth.


The pushes into negative territory also amount to a sort of competitive currency war that no one seems willing to call off.


Major economies around the world are desperate to spur inflation; one way to do that is to cut interest rates, which typically would make their currencies less attractive. Lower currencies raise the prices of imported goods and boost the fortunes of exporters.


Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark have all used negative rates to help ward off inflows of foreign funds that push up their currencies. Economists said an aim of the Bank of Japan’s move to negative rates last month was to weaken the yen. It hasn’t worked: The yen shot up Thursday and is stronger than it was before the rate cut.


The move below zero compounds the miseries for lenders in those countries. Banks traditionally make a profit by lending at higher interest rates than the rates they pay on deposits, a difference called the net interest margin. Low rates have already squeezed that margin, and banks’ funding costs from other sources, such as bond markets, have surged this year.


German banks earn roughly 75% of their income from the margin between rates on savings accounts and the loans they make, according to statistics from the


Bundesbank, the country’s central bank. Plunging rates dragged German banks’ interest revenue down to €204 billion ($230 billion) in 2014 from €419 billion in 2007, according to the Bundesbank.


Negative rates cost Danish banks more than 1 billion kroner ($151 million) last year, according to a lobbying group for Denmark’s banking sector.

Consider that and then have a look at the following chart, which certainly seems to indicate that we are on step 8 in WSJ's doom loop...

Step 9 is when things really start to go south for the real economy. So buckle up.


Martin Armstrong Warns "Systemic Risk Is Rising For All Markets"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/12/2016 - 15:30

The increasingly unstable footing that we find ourselves standing on is reflected in widening credit spreads that demonstrate that CONFIDENCE is indeed collapsing. We are on the precipice of what can only be described as a rising systemic risk for all markets.



Raymond James Analyst Is Out With A Major Bearish Call
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/12/2016 16:15 -0500

From Robin Landry of Raymond James

Since the last update the market has fallen to test the 1810 area as seen on the attached chart. The news and various indicators I use are getting more bearish. The world is drowning in debt and the central banks are showing themselves to be powerless to turn the economies of their respective countries around. Now they are moving to negative interest rates which only confirms my view of the world being in a DEFLATIONARY trend that has years to go. The talk of doing away with currency and moving to a digital currency is also showing the desperation. I believe a digital currency is coming much sooner that most people realize. The count shown in the attached chart is the one which gives a little larger view of where I believe the market is headed over the next few months if the top is already in. The rally happening, as I write this, is mainly due to the rally in oil. If the market is to make a new high, as I have suggested in earlier updates, this rally must break through the resistance in the S&P 500 around the 1950 area on increasing volume. If it fails, then the decline will drop to the 1740 area which I have repeatedly said MUST HOLD or the markets are in a MAJOR BEAR MARKET that will test the lows reached in 2009.



A Chief Investment Strategist that I have great respect for has always said that people don’t care whether things are good or bad but ARE THEY GETTING BETTER. The evidence I am looking at does not say things are getting better. THEY ARE GETTING WORSE!!! I have been in the investment business for over 40 years and have found that the charts of the various markets tell me what is going on in the longer term. I have repeatedly said that the Central Banks and the various Governments CAN change things over the short to medium term but THEY CANNOT CHANGE THE LONG TERM. Cycles have always existed and while they may be skewed to the left or right for awhile they ultimately happen until they are finished.

In Graduate school I took a Humanities course which I hated and was one of the few which I did not make an A in. Life is funny because that course taught me something which has turned out to be one of the most eye opening things I have experienced so far in my 69 years of life and my 40 plus years in this business.

The book used in that course was a book about Civilization. It outlined the dominance of Eastern and Western countries and how the Dominance changed every 500 years with a smaller 250 year cycle inside that where the major country in that hemisphere also changed. For example, the dominant hemisphere over the last 500 years has been the West. For about 250 years it was Great Britain, then it has been the United States. Now it is time for it to swing back to the East and we can easily see that happening every day in the news. China appears to be the next leader in the world, at least the way it looks now. You might ask what does that have to do with the stock market? Everything!! While the change does not happen overnight, it does happen and involves great turmoil. I got interested in cycles after reading that book in the Humanities class and wrote my Master’s thesis on the stock market. In that process I ran across the Elliott Wave theory. It allows one to map, as best as I have ever found, where we are in cycles at various degrees. One of the things that stands out in the study of cycles is that approximately every 80 years or so there is a Depression and then every 250 years an even greater change which I call a revolution. I believe that is what we are in the very early stages of. In the revolution cycle governments fall and new one’s rise. Look at all the changes going on around the world with everything changing in ways many of us would have never dreamed unless we had studied History and Cycles.

I won’t attempt to explain the Elliott Wave theory in this update. Robert Prechter along with A.J. Frost have written a book titled “Elliott Wave Principle” and explains it far better that I ever could. Elliott Wave International’s website is www.elliottwave.com. There you can find his book, newsletter’s and other materials if you want to learn more. The reason I bring this up, I have said in recent Market Updates that if we have already topped out in the stock market, then the market decline will be the biggest one anyone alive has ever seen and the result will be changes in every aspect of life that few people have ever dreamed of. It has been said that because the wave structure pattern can be very subjective that you can have 3 experts in Elliott Wave in the same room and have 3 different opinions. I have worked to take as much of my own opinion out of my analysis by using various technical indicators others have created over the years to help me determine where we really are in the wave structure.

I have expressed my opinion that we are in a large Cycle wave 4 correction and once it is finished a final 5th wave up to new highs will happen before the big downturn starts. Very few other EW technicians agree with me and think the top is already in and the downturn has already started. That is why over the years I have shown charts with my preferred count and my alternate count. What my personal opinion is does not matter. What does matter is what does the wave structure and the technical indicators say. They are telling me we are at a critical juncture. There are numerous supports from the recent low around 1810 down to the 1740 area which I IMHO believe will determine what the true count is. I am hoping for the best but also trying to prepare for the worst. I could go on for hours explaining all the things which tell me why I believe this support area is so important but I do not have the time and my typing skills are almost nonexistent.



Weekend Reading: Bull Struggles & NIRP
02/12/2016 16:45 -0500
Submitted by Lance Roberts

AAA-WeekendReading-021116

Wow…things are certainly happening faster than I expected. As January kicked off the new year, I posted my outlook for 2016 in which I discussed why, despite views of Goldman Sachs and many others, interest rates were going lower rather than higher.

“With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates on the short-end (Fed Funds), it will likely push the long-end of the curve lower as the economy begins to slow from the effects of monetary policy tightening.



From a purely technical perspective, rates have been in a long-term process of a tightening wedge. A breakout to the upside would suggest 10-year treasury rates would soar to 3.6% or higher, the consequence of which would be an almost immediate push of an economy growing at 2% into recession. The most likely path, given the current economic and monetary policy backdrop, will be a decline in rates toward the previous lows of 1.6-1.8%. (Inflation will also remain well below the Fed’s 2% target rate for the same reasons.)”

Rates-Price-Projection-122815

“Of course, falling rates means the ongoing “bond bull market” will remain intact for another year. In fact, if my outlook is correct, bonds will likely be one of the best performing asset classes in the next year.”

Here is that same chart today:

InterestRate-Update-021116

With interest rates now at my target levels in February, and bonds now extremely overbought, this is an opportune time to take some profits out of interest rate sensitive investments.

However, what the plunge in rates also suggests is that the economy is FAR weaker than Ms. Yellen, the mainstream financial media or the bullish blogosphere realize. Unfortunately, by the time the economic data is revised to reveal what rates are already telling you, it will be far too late to protect your investment capital.

But that is just my view. This weekend’s reading list, as usual, is a compilation of reads that provide both sides of the market and economic debate. Our job, as investors, is to reduce our confirmation bias in order to make more logical decisions with our money even though our emotions may be trying to lead us elsewhere. Hope, optimism and greed are all emotions that have led to far greater destructions of capital than negativity and fear ever have.

1) The Greatest Bull Market Of All Time by Ben Carlson via Wealth Of Common Sense

“How many hedge fund managers would kill for the following performance characteristics over a 40-year time frame?

* Annual Returns: 7.7%
* Volatility: 6.9%
* Number of Up Years: 37
* Number of Down Years: 3
* Annual Win %: 93%
* Worst Annual Loss: -2.9%
* Average Annual Loss: -1.9%
* Max Drawdown: -12.4%”

Bond-Returns-1976-2015

But Also Read: Equity Bubble Update by Jeremy Grantham via GMO

2) I Was Too Bullish by Matthew Belvedere via CNBC

“I was far too bullish last December,” Siegel admitted, referring to his call on “Squawk Box” that “valuations can stay on the high side.” He also had predicted on CNBC in November that Dow 20,000 was a “real possibility” in 2016. It was above 15,900 on Monday.



The Wharton School finance professor on Monday summed up his view on the headwinds to the market. “Those deflationary forces … from China, from commodities are really, in the presence of debt that so many of these energy and other companies have, … causing the market turmoil right now.”

Also Read: Just A Bullish Pause by Avi Gilburt via MarketWatch

Opposing View: Deteriorating Liquidity by Luke Kawa via Bloomberg

And Also: America’s Earning Recession Deepens by Alex Rosenberg via CNBC

3) Global Growth Fraying At The Edges by Gavyn Davies via FT

“The weakness in global risk assets that started in May 2015 raises a major question for macro-economists. Is market turbulence foreshadowing – or perhaps causing – a much broader weakening in global economic activity than anything seen since 2009?



Until now, the Fulcrum activity nowcasts have failed to identify a major turning point in global growth. This conclusion is still just about intact, but is subject to much greater doubt in this month’s report. There are some signs that growth in the advanced economies may be fraying at the edges, and China may be embarking on another mini downturn.”

FT-GlobalGrowth-021116

Also Read: Clueless Economists & The Coming Recession by Aaron Layman

4) EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT NIRP

* An Explanation Of Negative Rates by Econobrowser
* Negative Rates: A Giant Policy Failure by Narayana Kocherlakota
* The Fed May Follow Japan’s Path by John Mauldin via Fortune
* The Futile Negative Rates Club by Daniel Gross via Project Syndicate
* Why Japan Went NIRP by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Partners
* Bizarro World Of Negative Rates by Marc Chandler via Real Clear Markets
* The New Frontier Of NIRP by Clive Crook via Bloomberg
* NIRP Confirms QE Failure by Jeffrey Snider via Real Clear Markets

5) Why Stocks Could Fall By 10-20% by Jack Bouroudjian via CNBC

“The market tone began to shift in December — and the warning signals started to flash red.


We started to witness a contraction in earnings for a couple of quarters in a row, which resulted in the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500getting rich. We watched crude oil have a parabolic move to the downside as producers couldn’t pump fast enough. And we started to see the Federal Reserve move rates at a time when all the other central banks were doing the exact opposite which created risk aversion.

As it turns out, this became an I.O.U. market: interest rates, oil and uncertainty.”

[Fenix]

Gold Soars, Stocks Sink Despite Biggest Oil Rally In 7 Years
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/12/2016 16:03 -0500

And all of this on a Dudley statement (that said nothing), an oil rumor (repeatedly uttered with no actual news), a billionaire bank CEO buying some more stock in his firm, and a seasonal adjustrment (which made retail sales 'appear positive')...

Public Service Announcement:


Crude is the headline of the day...WTI RISES 12% TO $29.44/BBL, BIGGEST PCT GAIN SINCE FEB. 2009

With what appears like another major liquidation in the triple-inverse ETF DWTI...

And a major compression of the roll...

But gold is the winner on the week... The last time Gold soared this much so fast was in the middle of the Lehman collapse...


And while everyone crowed about Jamie Dimon's share purchase - which had the stink of Lehman-esque time when every bank CEO trotted out his own brand of confidence inspiring headlines - and that ramped financial stocks... but once again credit wouldn't play along... in cash markets...


and even less so in CDS (hedging)


* * *

Gold wins the week, bonds second best...

* * *

Today's ripfest stalled at 1130ET when Europe closed but the incessant ramp in crude oil lifted everything as algos latched on...


Nasdaq desperately wanted to "get back to even" for the week in today's ramp but only Trannies closed the week green...


With today's ramp led by Jamie Dimon's financials... (which still closed lower by 2.4% on the week - worst of all sectors)


But just look at the mess that is VIX in the last 2 days...


Does this look like financials are fixed?


When stocks took off at around 1300ET (as Oil spiked on rig count data), HY credit did not want to play...


Still could be worse... could be Japan...


A stunning roundtrip in US Treasury yields this week with 10Y swinging to down 30bps at Thursday's lows befoere faxce-ripping higher by over 20bps in the last 24 hours...


The USD rallied modestly today as sellers reappeared in Yen and EUR weakened...


The USD Index collapsed 3.7% in the last 2 weeks - the biggest drop since October 2010...to 4-month lows...


Despite all the algos and liquidation-fueled craziness, crude ended the week down over 5% - the 5th losing week in the last 7; as gold had its best week since dec 08...

You decide if you trust this rally in crude (and thus every risk asset pinned off it)

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Meanwhile these two developed markets now have inverted yield curves...


The World's Top Performing Hedge Fund Just Went Record Short, Explains Why
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/12/2016 17:07 -0500

Last month, in our latest profile of the $2.8 billion Horseman Capital, we said that not only has that fund which some have called the "most bearish in the world" generated tremendous returns almost every single year since inception (except for a 25% drop in 2009 after returning 31% during the cataclysmic 2008), but more notably, it has been net short - and quite bearish on - stocks ever since 2012. In that period it has consistently generated low double-digit returns, a feat virtually none of its competitors have managed to replicate. In fact, its performance has put it in the top percentile of all hedge funds in recent years.

Furthermore, in a year most other hedge funds would love to forget, the fund "crushed it", with a 20.45% return for 2015 and 5.6% in the tumultuous month of December.

Today, we got Horseman's latest numbers and they are a doozy: in what was one of the worst Januarys in stock market history, the fund returned a whopping 8%, putting it in the 99%+ percentile of returns for the month (and the year).


Indeed, "crushing it" is hardly new to Horseman: it has been doing so for four years in a row, and not surprisingly, 2015 was its best year since 2008. 2016 is starting off just as good as the prior year.

How did Horseman generate another month of phenomenal returns? In its own words:

This month strong gains came from the short equity book, in particular from the automobile, real estate and EM financials sectors while the long portfolio incurred a loss.

This is what Horseman's sector allocation looks like as of this moment:

Headlines were made last year by the clampdown of the Chinese authorities on the Macau casinos, who had been allowing Chinese residents to move their winnings out of China. However, despite the clampdown and the following fall in casino revenues by some 34% in 2015 (source: Macau's Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau), capital outflows have continued via other channels.


Imports from Hong Kong to China jumped 64% year on year in December, but the same numbers released in Hong Kong showed a 0.9% increase (sources: China and Hong Kong customs data). This could be explained by the practice of over-invoicing of Chinese imports from Hong Kong with trading partners that agree to inflate the cost of goods before a letter of credit is issued.


Chinese companies were involved in foreign acquisitions worth a total of $656bn last year and already this year, four of the biggest cross-border deals have involved Chinese groups bidding for US and European assets worth $61.7bn in total (source: FT).


Over the past few years Chinese companies have issued a large amount of US dollar denominated debt (see Russell Clark’s market note entitled ‘Spotting property Bubbles in East Asia’), in 2015 they sold a total of $60.3 billion worth of dollar-denominated bonds, more than six times the 2010 figure (source: Thomson Reuters data). In August last year, as China’s monetary authorities gave the signal that the Renminbi was not immune to devaluations, companies started to reduce their dollar exposure. Recently China SCE Property Holdings Limited said that it would redeem its $350 million senior note due 2017, while another real estate company, SUNAC China Holdings Limited said it had completed the redemption of its dollar note due next year.


China’s currency reserves declined by $420bn over the past 6 months and in January they plunged by $99.5bn (source: PBOC). The fund maintains a short exposure to sectors exposed to a renminbi devaluation such as luxury brands and Chinese property developers, and to other Asian currencies that would also have to devalue, such as the Korean Won and Singapore dollar.

In other words, another adherent to the "China will blow up" philosophy, which it may, however unlike Kyle Bass and a cohort of other China-bearish hedge funds, Horseman is instead betting on select Chinese sector shorts, as well as China's currency devaluation although not by shorting the Yuan, and instead is bearish on the Won and the SGD.

What was the fund most bearish on? Pretty much everything, but a few sectors in particular:

However, what is most remarakable about the hedge fund, is that while it has maintained its gross exposure, as of January 31, the fund's net short exposure has risen to a whopping 76%, an all time high, even for one of the world's most bearish hedge funds.



Finally or those seeking to glean some wisdom from the Horseman's inimitable Chief Investment Manager, Russell Clark, here is his latest letter.

* * *

My wife and I went see to the “The Big Short” the other day. It was certainly very amusing, and explained difficult financial concepts well. I will put it up there in my top three finance based films, along with “Trading Places” and “Margin Call”. I found Margin Call to be the least appreciated of these films, and yet for me most closely matches up to life in an investment bank in the 21st century.

For those that have not seen it, the film centres on a junior risk analyst, who discovers that the potential losses on the bank’s holding of mortgage assets were larger than its market capitalisation. He immediately informs his colleagues, who then pass it onto senior management. One of the recurring themes of the movie, is that the junior low paid staff are all maths and excel spreadsheet gurus, and the upper management are luddites. The junior risk analyst shows his excel model to management, and is constantly told “You know I don’t like these spreadsheets, just tell me what’s going on”. The analyst is eventually introduced to the Chairman of the Board, who asks him to “please, speak as you might to a young child. Or a golden retriever. It wasn't brains that brought me here; I assure you that.”

If you were unfamiliar with the world of finance, you would think this grossly unfair. The brainboxes of the world toil endlessly, while their know-nothing bosses take home the big bucks. However, I think this is wrong. As the Chairman of the Board elaborates, the reason he earns the big bucks is, “I'm here for one reason and one reason alone. I'm here to guess what the music might do a week, a month, a year from now. That's it. Nothing more.” The music in this case would be market prices.

The crux of the matter is that anyone telling you what the market is doing now, what the value of something is now, is providing you a freely available commodity; even if, in the cases of some derivative products, you need to be a rocket scientist to be able to give a valuation today. The real value add in markets is to be able to see what future values might be; that is to live in the future, not in the present.

I spend most of my time, while looking at current prices, thinking about and trying to live six months to one year in the future. Thinking about what will be the reaction to what is happening now, and then thinking about what that means future prices might look like. Generally that has worked well for me.

What I can see now is that US growth is slowing, and that the market is likely to price in reduced monetary tightening.

This should lead to a weaker dollar. This makes shorting Europe and Japan very appealing. Theoretically, this should make commodities and emerging markets (‘EM’) attractive, particularly if you are of the view that US dollar strength is the reason emerging markets and commodities have been so weak. However, I think we have chronic oversupply of commodities, and real financial issues in China that cannot be resolved easily. This makes commodity related areas very unattractive, despite the prospect of renewed monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Furthermore, the reaction to reduced tightening by the Federal Reserve, would almost certainly be more easing by every other central bank in the world. But as we have seen recently with both the ECB and BOJ, monetary activism is not always effective.

I also worry about the prospects of a trade war, as populism becomes the new normal in politics globally. The future for me is now more uncertain than at any time I can remember. Or to fully quote the Chairman of the Board from Margin Call, “I'm here to guess what the music might do a week, a month, a year from now. That's it. Nothing more. And standing here tonight, I'm afraid that I don't hear - a - thing. Just... silence.”

Your fund remains long bonds, short equities.

[admin]

Irán enviará 4 millones de barriles de crudo a Europa en las próximas 24 horas

sábado 13 de febrero de 2016 09:13 GYT
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DUBÁI (Reuters) - Irán embarcará 4 millones de barriles de crudo en petroleros con destino Europa en las próximas 24 horas, dijo el sábado un alto funcionario iraní, incluyendo 2 millones de barriles que comprará la francesa Total.

"En las próximas 24 horas, 4 millones de barriles de petróleo crudo se cargarán en tres petroleros con destino a Europa", dijo Rokneddin Yavadi, director general de la Compañía Nacional de Petróleo de Irán, citado por la agencia de noticias Shana.

"De los 4 millones de barriles de crudo, 2 millones de barriles están destinados a la francesa Total, y 2 millones de barriles han sido comprados por dos empresas en Rusia y España", añadió.

[admin]

Los bancos griegos no necesitarán más recapitalización: Nouy del BCE

ATENAS (Reuters) - No hay ninguna razón para creer que los bancos griegos necesitarán una recapitalización adicional, después de la última ronda que les proporcionó 14.400 millones de euros de financiación, según fue citada el sábado la jefa de la agencia de supervisión del Banco Central Europeo.

"Se han cumplido los planes de capital, por lo que no hay necesidad de requisitos adicionales de capital", dijo Daniele Nouy, ​​que preside el Mecanismo Único de Supervisión, al diario griego Agora.

Nouy agregó que los bancos griegos estarían excluidos de las pruebas de estrés del BCE este año, puesto que ya habían pasado por un "riguroso" chequeo el año pasado.

El BCE llevó a cabo una revisión de calidad de activos y pruebas de estrés de los cuatro mayores bancos griegos en octubre, después de que se vieran debilitados por la inestabilidad política, una pérdida de depósitos y la imposición de controles de capital en julio, que siguen en vigor.

Nouy pidió a los bancos que utilizaran "todas las herramientas disponibles" para hacer frente a los préstamos dudosos, incluyendo su venta.

El Banco de Grecia, que supervisa una cartera de 9.500 millones de euros de 14 bancos malos tras una oleada de consolidación, ha logrado hasta el momento recuperar 800 millones de euros de préstamos de baja calidad.

[admin]

Perú dice inflación tardará más en converger a rango meta

LIMA (Reuters) - El Banco Central de Perú dijo el viernes que tomará más tiempo para que la inflación converja hacia su rango meta, y proyectó un crecimiento de la economía local de casi un 4 por ciento interanual en el primer trimestre, una franca recuperación ligada al avance del crucial sector minero.

La tasa de inflación anualizada, ahora máximos de cuatro años con un 4,6 por ciento, probablemente se desacelerará a un 3 por ciento o menos entre fines de este año o comienzos del próximo, dijo en una conferencia telefónica el jefe de estudios económicos del Banco Central, Adrián Armas.

Previamente se esperaba que la inflación anual converja a su rango meta de entre 1 y 3 por ciento a fines de este año.

Armas dijo que la inflación de febrero estaría por debajo del 0,37 por ciento de enero y que la tasa anualizada comenzaría recién a disminuir en el segundo trimestre, con un posible menor impacto del fenómeno climático de El Niño.

"Estamos pendientes de El Niño y cómo se puede afectar el precio de los alimentos en los meses que viene. Prevemos con más claridad que deberíamos ver una tendencia decreciente de la inflación ya hacia el segundo trimestre", afirmó Armas.

El Banco Central ha elevado la tasa de interés en un punto porcentual desde septiembre, y advirtió el jueves en su tercera alza consecutiva de un cuarto de punto porcentual que el aumento de las expectativas de inflación amenazaban con retroalimentar los precios.

Armas dijo que a pesar de la restricción monetaria del banco, la tasa de interés real prácticamente se ha mantenido estable en los últimos meses, lo que sugiere que el organismo aún tiene espacio para elevar su tasa nominal de referencia.

Algunos analistas esperan que el banco central eleve varias veces la tasa clave de interés en los próximos meses, mientras la moneda local se deprecia presionando a la inflación y el crecimiento económico se recupera.

El sol cayó esta semana frente al dólar a un mínimo de casi 13 años en medio de preocupaciones sobre China, el principal importador de los metales que el país produce.

Armas señaló que probablemente la economía local se acelerará en el primer trimestre para crecer a su potencial, un 4 por ciento, tras registrar un probable ritmo de expansión de al menos un 5 por ciento en diciembre.

El funcionario dijo que la economía habría crecido en el 2015 por encima del estimado del banco central, de un 2,9 por ciento, y que es "demasiado pronto para revisar al alza" su proyección de expansión de un 4 por ciento para este año.

[admin]

Si la gasolina no estuviera tan baja el consumidor americano ya estaría en recesión.