03:45 Banco central de China recorta la facilidad de créditos a medio plazo
El banco central de China ha recortado la facilidad de créditos a medio plazo (MLF) a un año al 3,0% y a seis meses al 2,85%.
4:27 Algunos bancos chinos no podrán acogerse a los RRR preferenciales
El Banco Popular de China dice que ha revisado a los bancos con respecto a los requerimientos de las reservas bancarias (RRR), con algunos bancos no cumpliendo con las normas para acogerse a los recortes del RRR y como resultado no podrán disfrutar de esos RRR preferenciales a partir del 25 de febrero.
Media reversión
Viernes, 19 de Febrero del 2016 - 3:18:24
Al final, ante cualquier debate sobre la valoración de activos siempre recurrimos a su media histórica. ¿Les sorprende esta afirmación? Lo cierto es que es totalmente verdad: lo normal, con el tiempo es revertir a niveles de precios medios. Para más tarde caer muy por debajo o subir muy por encima. Pero, la referencia media es la que nos permite hablar de un mercado muy premiado o muy castigado.
En tipos de interés reales, en precios relativos de bolsa, en spread de crédito….al final, la media histórica es la clave. En términos de divisas podríamos identificarla con la paridad de poder de compra, aunque siempre me entran dudas sobre el momento en que tenemos que fijar el inicio o concretar el momento de equilibrio. Así, las desviaciones vía tipo de cambio de mercado (o tipo de cambio real) se ajustan con el tiempo a través del nominal (o por diferenciales de precios…esto es lo más complicado y costoso). Lo dicho: con el tiempo los precios relativos de los activos retornan a su nivel promedio histórico.
El argumento anterior también sirve para la economía. Mejor, para su comportamiento cíclico. Aunque ya saben que el ciclo puede ser más o menos largo, más o menos intenso, en función de shocks exógenos de oferta y demanda: reformas estructurales, caída de precios externos, políticas y otros factores más. La propia política monetaria excesivamente expansiva durante un tiempo demasiado largo. Al final, ceteris paribus entramos en expansión, la desarrollamos hasta comenzar la desaceleración, la profundizamos hasta que volvemos a ver un suelo en la caída del producto. Y volver a empezar.
Claro que, de la misma forma que hablamos de una expansión prolongada en el tiempo podemos temer también la posibilidad de una recesión prolongada. Aunque ahora la llamaríamos depresión. Un desempleo alto se traduce en presiones salariales a la baja, menores costes que deberían traducirse en una mejora de la demanda del factor trabajo. Tipos de interés bajos llevan a una elevada retribución de capital, que a su vez conlleva un aumento del stock de inversión. La debilidad del crecimiento conlleva tipos de cambio reales más bajos que a su vez mejoran la competitividad y favorecen la recuperación de la economía. Son todos ejemplos de las fuerzas que pueden incidir en la reversión a la media del ritmo de crecimiento económico. Pero, ¿qué factores pueden contraponerse a todas estas fuerzas para impedir la media reversión? Y aquí hablamos especialmente de factores que pueden limitar la recuperación de la economía convirtiéndo de esta forma un escenario de recesión en otro de depresión.
Miren este gráfico…
Se trata de la evolución del ritmo de crecimiento de las economías emergentes comparado con nuestras previsiones, siempre más optimistas. ¿Hemos sobrevalorado la media reversión en el crecimiento de estas economías?.
Al final, en el caso de las economías emergentes hemos hablado del final del ciclo alcista de las materias primas, de un modelo roto, de un contexto financiero internacional muy restrictivo, de tensiones políticas y sociales en algunos casos….son sin duda factores que dificultan la vuelta a una senda “normal” de crecimiento. Ante shocks de este tipo sólo se pueden contraponer otros de sentido contrario: ajustes estructurales y reformas por un lado, condiciones financieras más favorables. Lamentablemente, las primeras quedan en manos de las autoridades de estos países cuando las segundas dependen del contexto internacional.
¿Se refería a lo anterior la OCDE cuando ayer mismo demandaba a las autoridades políticas adecuadas y de forma coordinada?.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
4:12 El BCE ya habla de recesión en la Eurozona
Jan Smets, gobernador del Banco Nacional de Bélgica y miembro del BCE, ha declarado que "si se mantiene el actual nivel de inflación en la Eurozona se podría producir una nueva recesión. Un nivel demasiado bajo de inflación podría resultar no sólo en un crecimiento lento a largo plazo, sino deflación y recesión, ya que las deudas de los hogares, Estados y bancos sería muy pesada de aguantar".
"La política monetaria del BCE ha salvado a la Eurozona de la recesión pero que no estoy convencido de que sea suficiente. Una mayor reducción de los tipos de interés podría no ser suficiente, podrían necesitarse medidas adicionales para impulsar la economía".
4:38 EUR/USD intradía: resistencia clave de corto plazo en 1,1145
Trading Central
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 1,1145
Nuestra preferencia: posiciones cortas debajo de 1,1145 con objetivos en 1,1070 y 1,1040 en extensión.
Escenario alternativo: arriba de 1,1145 buscar mayor indicación al alza con 1,1185 y 1,1210 como objetivos.
Comentario técnico: el potencial ascendente probablemente se verá limitado por la Resistencia en 1,1145.
4:58 ¿Cómo transcurre la temporada de resultados en Wall Street?
Con 425 compañías publicadas, el BPA medio ajustado recoge una caída de -2,44% vs -6,7% estimado para el total del S&P 500 antes del inicio de publicación de resultados y frente a -2,32% en el 3T´15 (aunque se esperaba -6,9%). El 96,3% ha batido estimaciones vs 69,4% en el 3T, el 11,0% no ha ofrecido sorpresas ajustándose a las estimaciones vs. 8,6% en el 3T y el 19,6% ha decepcionado vs. 21,9% en el 3T.
¿Pueden quebrar los bancos? Analizamos sus CDS
por ASPAIN 11 EAFI •Hace 11 horas
Un Credit Default Swap (CDS) es un instrumento de cobertura contra un incumplimiento crediticio, por lo que te ofrece un seguro ante evento de crédito de la entidad o gobierno. Se obtiene con motivo de protección de bonos de un emisor que pueda declararse en suspensión de pagos.
La adquisición de dicho instrumento conlleva el pago de una prima obteniendo el compromiso por parte del emisor de la realización del pago del capital asegurado. Para la adquisición de un CDS no es requisito indispensable la posesión del bono que sirva como subyacente del contrato.
Observemos como se encuentra la situación de los CDS de las principales entidades.
Imagen
El dato de Spread es la unidad de medición donde se refleja el coste de asegurar un millón de dólares de la deuda de la empresa, donde en este caso si tomamos como ejemplo BNP Paribas SA que su spread se sitúa en 103.23 supondría 10.323 dólares al año la adquisición del CDS.
Respecto a los bancos españoles vemos como BBVA y Banco Santander se encuentran en un spread de 168 habiendo sufrido un aumento de su valor de 46 puntos en los últimos tres meses, aunque el incremento más significativo lo ha vivido Deutsche Bank con una variación de más de 139 puntos en el cuarto de año.
De tal manera que las entidades con un CDS más elevado serían el propio Deutsche Bank que llegó a alcanzar la cifra de los 272 seguido por el italiano UniCredit SpA que se paga un spread de 223.
El costo de asegurar la exposición a la deuda subordinada de Deutsche Bank a través de CDS llegaba a un máximo histórico.
Los datos de Markit a cinco años en CDS subordinado para el banco alemán llegaron a una cifra record de 540 puntos básicos, mientras que a un año era de 114 pb hasta los 552pb.
En cuanto al CDS senior a cinco años subieron 43pb hasta los 275pb siendo el nivel más alto desde 2011.
Imagen
En el siguiente gráfico vemos el histórico de los últimos tres años de estos bancos, observamos como el banco alemán representado por la línea de color rojo se había movido en los datos más fiables y su spread se encontraba entre los menores hasta que en este último periodo se produjo una revalorización del valor con motivo de la inestabilidad en el sector bancario y las dudas sobre su situación económica.
Los bancos italianos como UniCredit SpA e Intesa Sanpaolo SpA ya mostraron dudas durante el año 2013 alcanzando las cifras en spread de 400, y ahora vuelven a ser las entidades con mayores riesgos crediticios con motivo de las expectativas de creación de un banco malo y haber sufrido caídas importantes en el principal índice italiano.
Imagen
Respecto a las instituciones financieras con mejor comportamiento y confianza se encuentran encabezadas por las norteamericanas American Express, JP Morgan o Wells Fargo, y por el lado europeo destacan ING Bank y UBS AG.Imagen
Atendamos gráficamente al histórico de algunas de las entidades más importantes norteamericanas de referencia no mencionadas. Como Bank of America con un aumento de 47 puntos en los últimos tres meses, Citi Group 37 puntos, Goldman Sachs 43 puntos y Morgan Stanley 45 puntos.
Los ratings otorgados a algunas de las entidades mencionadas serían.
Imagen
Otro producto financiero que ha experimentado una gran volatilidad durante estas últimas semanas es el referente a los Bonos Convertibles Contingentes, comúnmente llamados como Cocos, son bonos diseñados para apoyar a los bancos en un entorno de estrés financiero. En el caso de que el bono baje de un cierto límite pre acordado, se convertiría en acciones (o se darían de baja directamente), haciendo que el inversor pase de acreedor a propietario. Los gobiernos han fomentado este instrumento para que, en caso de caída del mercado financiero, sea el propio mercado quien rescate a los bancos en lugar del Estado.
El precio de estos bonos arriesgados ha bajado hasta un 25% en las últimas semanas como consecuencia de una ola de incertidumbre que ha azotado al mercado.
En el siguiente gráfico vemos la caída sufrida por Deutsche Bank en este producto.
Los cocos pagan un interés mayor al resto de bonos, dado que el inversor asume más riesgos. Esto atrajo a personas con gran capital que apostaron por estos nuevos bonos buscando una mayor rentabilidad.
Sin embargo, muchos fondos de inversión tradicionales han tenido problemas a la hora de intentar comprar cocos, ya que al estar en un punto intermedio entre bonos y acciones traspasan, en algunos casos, los baremos de inversión establecidos de dichos fondos.
Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
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Re: Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
por Fenix » Vie Feb 19, 2016 7:03 pm
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
por Fenix » Vie Feb 19, 2016 7:15 pm
5:07 "El Brexit dañaría al Reino Unido, podría hundir la UE"
Según el multimillonario Richard Branson
Una salida británica de la Unión Europea sería muy perjudicial para su economía y podría provocar la ruptura del bloque, dijo el multimillonario Richard Branson el viernes.
El primer ministro, David Cameron, está intentando alcanzar un acuerdo con los otros líderes de la UE en una cumbre en Bruselas que le permita argumentar a favor de la permanencia del Reino Unido en un referéndum que probablemente tendrá lugar en junio.
"Sería un día muy, muy, muy, muy triste si los británicos votan la salida de la UE. Creo que sería muy, muy perjudicial para Gran Bretaña", dijo Branson, fundador de Virgin Group, a la televisión Sky.
6:08 BofA Merril Lynch descarta una recesión global
Los analistas de Bank of America Merril Lynch descartan que la caída de los precios del petróleo causen una recesión global. Estiman un barril en 47 dólares en junio.
"El daño por la caída en los precios del petróleo está muy concentrado en un grupo pequeño de países y en las empresas del sector, mientras que los beneficios están ampliamente distribuidos. A pesar de que se han incrementado los riesgos de una recesión global por la caída en los precios del crudo, al final ello se redistribuye a través de la economía global y debe ser positivo para el crecimiento mundial".
6:01 Banco central de Tayikistán sube tipos al 9%
El banco central de Tayikistán ha elevado su tasa de referencia en 1 punto porcentual al 9 por ciento, su primera subida desde diciembre de 2014.
El banco central dijo que la subida de tipos es una respuesta al aumento de la tasa de cambio y las presiones inflacionarias en la economía del país.
6:09 Cae el precio del petróleo y arrastra a las Bolsas europeas
Los recientes descensos en los futuros del WTI abril han perdido los mínimos de ayer en 32,45 dólares. Esto ha pesado sobre el mercado de acciones y se filtra al mercado de divisas por un mayor apetito por el yen y los bonos, con el Bund superando el máximo intradía de 165,34.
6:27 Será difícil ponerse de acuerdo para congelar la producción del petróleo
Afirma el ministro de energía ruso
El ministro de petróleo de Rusia ha declarado que "será difícil ponerse de acuerdo para congelar la producción de petróleo". Añade:
- Es necesario ponerse de acuerdo sobre congelar la producción.
- No se han discutido recortes de producción.
- Irán debería estar interesado también en congelar la producción, ya que obtendría precios más altos por su petróleo.
6:42 Gana el Brexit en la última encuesta de TNS
El 36% de los británicos votaría a favor de la salida de la UE si se realizara un referéndum mañana, según una encuesta realizada por TNS.
El porcentaje de británicos que quieren mantenerse dentro de la UE se sitúa en el 34%.
6:58 VF Corp. obtiene un BPA de 0,95 dólares vs 1,01 consenso
Los ingresos de VF Corp. en el cuarto trimestre alcanzaron los 3.410 millones de dólares frente a 3.640 millones que esperaba el mercado.
6:51 Deere supera previsiones de beneficios, pero recorta previsión para 2016
Ampliación
Deere obtiene un beneficio por acción en el primer trimestre fiscal de 0,80 dólares frente a 0,71 dólares esperado. Sin embargo, reduce su previsión de beneficio para 2016 a 1.300 millones de dólares desde 1.400 millones anterior, frente a un esperado de 1.340 millones de dólares.
En una reacción inmediata, su rival italiano CNH Industrial cae un 0,8% desde 5,64 euros a 5,59 euros.
6:50 Deere & Co: Beneficio neto 1tr16 254 millones de dólares
Deere & Co. obtiene un beneficio neto en el primer trimestre de su año fiscal de 254 millones de dólares. BPA 80 centavos frente 71 centavos esperados y 1,12$ anterior.
Ingresos -13% a 5.530 millones de dólares frente 4.890 millones de dólares esperados.
7:08 Rusia cree que el acuerdo podría reducir el sobreabastecimiento de petróleo a la mitad
El viceministro de Energía de Rusia, Alexei Texler ha dicho que la congelación de producción de crudo es útil y necesaria.
Dijo que el mercado del petróleo está sobreabastecido por 1,8 millones de barriles por día y el acuerdo podría recortar eso a la mitad. Sin embargo, admitió que todavía hay interrogantes sobre sobre la participación de Irán en el acuerdo, y añadió que cualquier país podría unirse a la congelación, pero no todos lo harían.
7:46 Los Bancos lideran los descensos en las Bolsas europeas
Las acciones bancarias europeas siguen liderando las caídas en los mercados europeos mientras la aversión al riesgo toma el centro del escenario. El sector Bancos Eurostoxx retrocede un 2,3 por ciento.
El índice iTraxx Sub-Financiero se amplía 14 puntos básicos y algunos bancos italianos han alcanzado el límite caída.
El Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) cae un 2,6% y el Pop Milano (PMI IM) retrocede un 3%. En nuestro mercado doméstico, Banco Popular se deja un 3,8%, Santander -3,6%, BBVA -2,65% y CaixaBank -2,61%.
BofA Asks: Is This The Chinese Shadow Bank Failure That Will This Trigger The Chain Reaction
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 20:03
"In a scenario in which investors are not bailed out and thus become more cautious, eg, rolling over some of the debt instruments in the shadow banking sector, some borrowers may struggle to obtain credit, for example, developers and coal miners. Whether this scenario would trigger a chain reaction is a key risk that needs to be monitored."
7:55 Oro intradía: sesgo alcista arriba de 1218,00
Trading Central
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 1218,00
Nuestra preferencia: posiciones largas encima de 1218,00 con objetivos en 1240,00 y 1246,00 en extensión.
Escenario alternativo: debajo de 1218,00 buscar mayor indicación de baja (o de caída) con 1202,00 y 1191,00 como objetivos.
Comentario técnico: el RSI muestra tendencias que van de mixtas a alcistas.
Según el multimillonario Richard Branson
Una salida británica de la Unión Europea sería muy perjudicial para su economía y podría provocar la ruptura del bloque, dijo el multimillonario Richard Branson el viernes.
El primer ministro, David Cameron, está intentando alcanzar un acuerdo con los otros líderes de la UE en una cumbre en Bruselas que le permita argumentar a favor de la permanencia del Reino Unido en un referéndum que probablemente tendrá lugar en junio.
"Sería un día muy, muy, muy, muy triste si los británicos votan la salida de la UE. Creo que sería muy, muy perjudicial para Gran Bretaña", dijo Branson, fundador de Virgin Group, a la televisión Sky.
6:08 BofA Merril Lynch descarta una recesión global
Los analistas de Bank of America Merril Lynch descartan que la caída de los precios del petróleo causen una recesión global. Estiman un barril en 47 dólares en junio.
"El daño por la caída en los precios del petróleo está muy concentrado en un grupo pequeño de países y en las empresas del sector, mientras que los beneficios están ampliamente distribuidos. A pesar de que se han incrementado los riesgos de una recesión global por la caída en los precios del crudo, al final ello se redistribuye a través de la economía global y debe ser positivo para el crecimiento mundial".
6:01 Banco central de Tayikistán sube tipos al 9%
El banco central de Tayikistán ha elevado su tasa de referencia en 1 punto porcentual al 9 por ciento, su primera subida desde diciembre de 2014.
El banco central dijo que la subida de tipos es una respuesta al aumento de la tasa de cambio y las presiones inflacionarias en la economía del país.
6:09 Cae el precio del petróleo y arrastra a las Bolsas europeas
Los recientes descensos en los futuros del WTI abril han perdido los mínimos de ayer en 32,45 dólares. Esto ha pesado sobre el mercado de acciones y se filtra al mercado de divisas por un mayor apetito por el yen y los bonos, con el Bund superando el máximo intradía de 165,34.
6:27 Será difícil ponerse de acuerdo para congelar la producción del petróleo
Afirma el ministro de energía ruso
El ministro de petróleo de Rusia ha declarado que "será difícil ponerse de acuerdo para congelar la producción de petróleo". Añade:
- Es necesario ponerse de acuerdo sobre congelar la producción.
- No se han discutido recortes de producción.
- Irán debería estar interesado también en congelar la producción, ya que obtendría precios más altos por su petróleo.
6:42 Gana el Brexit en la última encuesta de TNS
El 36% de los británicos votaría a favor de la salida de la UE si se realizara un referéndum mañana, según una encuesta realizada por TNS.
El porcentaje de británicos que quieren mantenerse dentro de la UE se sitúa en el 34%.
6:58 VF Corp. obtiene un BPA de 0,95 dólares vs 1,01 consenso
Los ingresos de VF Corp. en el cuarto trimestre alcanzaron los 3.410 millones de dólares frente a 3.640 millones que esperaba el mercado.
6:51 Deere supera previsiones de beneficios, pero recorta previsión para 2016
Ampliación
Deere obtiene un beneficio por acción en el primer trimestre fiscal de 0,80 dólares frente a 0,71 dólares esperado. Sin embargo, reduce su previsión de beneficio para 2016 a 1.300 millones de dólares desde 1.400 millones anterior, frente a un esperado de 1.340 millones de dólares.
En una reacción inmediata, su rival italiano CNH Industrial cae un 0,8% desde 5,64 euros a 5,59 euros.
6:50 Deere & Co: Beneficio neto 1tr16 254 millones de dólares
Deere & Co. obtiene un beneficio neto en el primer trimestre de su año fiscal de 254 millones de dólares. BPA 80 centavos frente 71 centavos esperados y 1,12$ anterior.
Ingresos -13% a 5.530 millones de dólares frente 4.890 millones de dólares esperados.
7:08 Rusia cree que el acuerdo podría reducir el sobreabastecimiento de petróleo a la mitad
El viceministro de Energía de Rusia, Alexei Texler ha dicho que la congelación de producción de crudo es útil y necesaria.
Dijo que el mercado del petróleo está sobreabastecido por 1,8 millones de barriles por día y el acuerdo podría recortar eso a la mitad. Sin embargo, admitió que todavía hay interrogantes sobre sobre la participación de Irán en el acuerdo, y añadió que cualquier país podría unirse a la congelación, pero no todos lo harían.
7:46 Los Bancos lideran los descensos en las Bolsas europeas
Las acciones bancarias europeas siguen liderando las caídas en los mercados europeos mientras la aversión al riesgo toma el centro del escenario. El sector Bancos Eurostoxx retrocede un 2,3 por ciento.
El índice iTraxx Sub-Financiero se amplía 14 puntos básicos y algunos bancos italianos han alcanzado el límite caída.
El Deutsche Bank (DBK GY) cae un 2,6% y el Pop Milano (PMI IM) retrocede un 3%. En nuestro mercado doméstico, Banco Popular se deja un 3,8%, Santander -3,6%, BBVA -2,65% y CaixaBank -2,61%.
BofA Asks: Is This The Chinese Shadow Bank Failure That Will This Trigger The Chain Reaction
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 20:03
"In a scenario in which investors are not bailed out and thus become more cautious, eg, rolling over some of the debt instruments in the shadow banking sector, some borrowers may struggle to obtain credit, for example, developers and coal miners. Whether this scenario would trigger a chain reaction is a key risk that needs to be monitored."
7:55 Oro intradía: sesgo alcista arriba de 1218,00
Trading Central
Punto pivote (nivel de invalidación): 1218,00
Nuestra preferencia: posiciones largas encima de 1218,00 con objetivos en 1240,00 y 1246,00 en extensión.
Escenario alternativo: debajo de 1218,00 buscar mayor indicación de baja (o de caída) con 1202,00 y 1191,00 como objetivos.
Comentario técnico: el RSI muestra tendencias que van de mixtas a alcistas.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
por Fenix » Vie Feb 19, 2016 7:18 pm
8:17 ¿Ha formado techo el Nasdaq?
Mike van Dulken, director de investigación de Accendo Markets, a la vista del reciente comportamiento del mercado se pregunta si tras siete años el Nasdaq ha finalmente dibujado un techo.
Dulken dice que el FTSE, DAX y Dow están probando los recientes soportes. Añade que los miembros del FTSE están desarrollando un volumen menguante que no es una buena señal.
8:13 La opinión de Morgan Stanley sobre las principales divisas
Dólar USA: Alcista. Posicionarse largos frente al euro, yen y franco suizo.
Euro: Bajista. Vender el euro/dólar. A pesar de los rebotes que puede tener en el corto plazo, en el medio será una de las divisas más débiles del G10.
Yen: Tácticamente bajistas. Esperamos un dólar/yen en los 116 en las próximas semanas.
Libra: Bajista. Se verá penalizada por el debate sobre el Brexit.
Franco Suizo: Bajista. Posicionarse cortos en el franco suizo frente al dólar.
Dólar canadiense: Neutral. Mantenemos nuestro escenario.
Dólar australiano: Alcista. A la espera de los datos que confirmen la recuperación económica.
Dólar neocelandés: Neutral. Se espera que la inflación caiga a niveles de 2012.
8:30 IPC EEUU enero 0,0% vs -0,1% esperado
IPC subyacente +0,3% vs +0,2% consenso
El aumento de los alquileres y los gastos médicos elevaron la inflación subyacente en EE.UU. en enero a un máximo de casi cuatro años y medio, señalando un aumento en las presiones de precios que podrían permitir la Reserva Federal elevar gradualmente las tasas de interés este año.
El Departamento de Trabajo dijo el viernes que su índice de precios al consumidor, que excluye los componentes volátiles de alimentos y energía, aumentó un 0,3 por ciento el mes pasado. Ese fue el mayor avance desde agosto de 2011 y siguió un aumento del 0,2 por ciento en diciembre.
En los 12 meses hasta enero, el IPC subyacente avanzó un 2,2 por ciento, el mayor aumento desde junio de 2012. El IPC aumentó un 2,1 por ciento en diciembre. La Fed tiene un objetivo de inflación del 2 por ciento.
Los economistas esperaban que el IPC subyacente subiera un 0,2 por ciento el mes pasado y un 2,1 por ciento más que hace un año.
El IPC general se mantuvo sin cambios el mes pasado después de caer un 0,1 por ciento en diciembre. El IPC aumentó un 1,4 por ciento en los 12 meses hasta enero, la mayor alza desde octubre de 2014, después de ganar un 0,7 por ciento en diciembre.
Datos positivos para el dólar.
9:38 Visco (BCE): el BCE hará lo que tenga que hacer para estabilizar los precios
El gobernador del Banco de Italia, Ignazio Visco, dice que el BCE hará lo que tenga que hacer para alcanzar la estabilidad de precios, añadiendo que actuar de forma preventiva y agresivamente puede significar tener que actuar menos.
Como guía, Visco tiende a tener una postura "dovish" sobre la política monetaria.
9:52 ¿Cuánto tiempo durarán las tasas de interés negativas?
Los economistas encuestados por Bloomberg creen que el SNB, DNB, Banco de Suecia, del Banco de Japón y BCE mantendrán las tasas de depósito bajo cero hasta al menos 2018.
Mike van Dulken, director de investigación de Accendo Markets, a la vista del reciente comportamiento del mercado se pregunta si tras siete años el Nasdaq ha finalmente dibujado un techo.
Dulken dice que el FTSE, DAX y Dow están probando los recientes soportes. Añade que los miembros del FTSE están desarrollando un volumen menguante que no es una buena señal.
8:13 La opinión de Morgan Stanley sobre las principales divisas
Dólar USA: Alcista. Posicionarse largos frente al euro, yen y franco suizo.
Euro: Bajista. Vender el euro/dólar. A pesar de los rebotes que puede tener en el corto plazo, en el medio será una de las divisas más débiles del G10.
Yen: Tácticamente bajistas. Esperamos un dólar/yen en los 116 en las próximas semanas.
Libra: Bajista. Se verá penalizada por el debate sobre el Brexit.
Franco Suizo: Bajista. Posicionarse cortos en el franco suizo frente al dólar.
Dólar canadiense: Neutral. Mantenemos nuestro escenario.
Dólar australiano: Alcista. A la espera de los datos que confirmen la recuperación económica.
Dólar neocelandés: Neutral. Se espera que la inflación caiga a niveles de 2012.
8:30 IPC EEUU enero 0,0% vs -0,1% esperado
IPC subyacente +0,3% vs +0,2% consenso
El aumento de los alquileres y los gastos médicos elevaron la inflación subyacente en EE.UU. en enero a un máximo de casi cuatro años y medio, señalando un aumento en las presiones de precios que podrían permitir la Reserva Federal elevar gradualmente las tasas de interés este año.
El Departamento de Trabajo dijo el viernes que su índice de precios al consumidor, que excluye los componentes volátiles de alimentos y energía, aumentó un 0,3 por ciento el mes pasado. Ese fue el mayor avance desde agosto de 2011 y siguió un aumento del 0,2 por ciento en diciembre.
En los 12 meses hasta enero, el IPC subyacente avanzó un 2,2 por ciento, el mayor aumento desde junio de 2012. El IPC aumentó un 2,1 por ciento en diciembre. La Fed tiene un objetivo de inflación del 2 por ciento.
Los economistas esperaban que el IPC subyacente subiera un 0,2 por ciento el mes pasado y un 2,1 por ciento más que hace un año.
El IPC general se mantuvo sin cambios el mes pasado después de caer un 0,1 por ciento en diciembre. El IPC aumentó un 1,4 por ciento en los 12 meses hasta enero, la mayor alza desde octubre de 2014, después de ganar un 0,7 por ciento en diciembre.
Datos positivos para el dólar.
9:38 Visco (BCE): el BCE hará lo que tenga que hacer para estabilizar los precios
El gobernador del Banco de Italia, Ignazio Visco, dice que el BCE hará lo que tenga que hacer para alcanzar la estabilidad de precios, añadiendo que actuar de forma preventiva y agresivamente puede significar tener que actuar menos.
Como guía, Visco tiende a tener una postura "dovish" sobre la política monetaria.
9:52 ¿Cuánto tiempo durarán las tasas de interés negativas?
Los economistas encuestados por Bloomberg creen que el SNB, DNB, Banco de Suecia, del Banco de Japón y BCE mantendrán las tasas de depósito bajo cero hasta al menos 2018.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
por Fenix » Vie Feb 19, 2016 7:22 pm
10:23 Gráfico del día: Plataformas de perforación de crudo vs. Producción
Un interesante gráfico de RBS de la producción de petróleo de Estados Unidos, que muestra una gran caída en el número de perforaciones activas, pero una caída mucho menor en la producción real.
Los equipos de perforación han descendido un 63%, mientras que la producción solamente un 10%. Esto sugiere una mejora de la eficiencia y concentración de plataformas en zonas de alta producción.
10:15 El rally del mercado reduce las correlaciones
Lentamente, mientras los mercados globales muestran signos de despertar del desplome de principios de año, los movimientos que han paralizado los inversores desde Tokio a Nueva York están empezando a ceder.
Aunque cuatro días es una pequeña muestra, el tramo alcista en los mercados de acciones que comenzó el viernes está empezando a debilitar lazos previamente acorazados entre, por ejemplo, el índice Standard & Poor's 500 y activos como el petróleo y los bonos basura.
Este movimiento representa una inversión de la tendencia vista desde primeros de año, cuando las preocupaciones sobre el crecimiento económico y los riesgos de solvencia se unieron con fuerza.
11:01 La caída del último paraíso socialista
Los mercados esperan que un default de Venezuela ya que las reformas son demasiado cortas y llegan demasiado tarde.
10:53 ¿Qué países serían los más perjudicados ante un "Brexit"?
Si David Cameron termina liderando al Reino Unido fuera de la Unión Europea, arrastrará a todos los demás con él. Esa es la conclusión de un estudio académico sobre cuál sería el impacto económico de un "Brexit''. Nadie escapa ileso.
Utilizando un modelo que simula el efecto de una salida británica en el comercio y la producción en dos escenarios, los economistas encargados por la Fundación Bertelsmann de Alemania han calculado el impacto resultante en los ingresos per cápita.
El país más perjudicado sería el Reino Unido, seguido de Irlanda, Luxemburgo, Malta, Bélgica y Chipre.
Why The Chinese Yuan Will Lose 30% Of Its Value
02/18/2016 21:20 -0500
Submitted by Charles Hugh-S.
The stark truth is nobody wants yuan any more.
The U.S. dollar (USD) has gained over 35% against major currencies since 2011.
China's government has pegged its currency, the yuan (renminbi) to the USD for many years. Until mid-2005, the yuan was pegged at about 8.3 to the dollar. After numerous complaints that the yuan was being kept artificially low to boost Chinese exports to the U.S., the Chinese monetary authorities let the yuan appreciate from 8.3 to about 6.8 to the dollar in 2008.
This peg held steady until mid-2010, at which point the yuan slowly strengthened to 6 in early 2014. From that high point, the yuan has depreciated moderately to around 6.5 to the USD.
Interestingly, this is about the same level the yuan reached in 2011, when the USD struck its multiyear low. Since 2011, the USD has gained (depending on which index or weighting you choose) between 25% and 35%. I think the chart above (trade-weighted USD against major currencies) is more accurate than the conventional DXY index.
Due to the USD peg, the yuan has appreciated in lockstep with the U.S. dollar against other currencies. On the face of it, the yuan would need to devalue by 35% just to return to its pre-USD-strength level in 2011. This would imply an eventual return to the yuan's old peg around 8.3--or perhaps as high as 8.7.
Longtime correspondent Mark G. submitted this article China's Subprime Crisis Is Here:
The dynamic is clear. A splurge of new lending can help to dilute existing bad loans, but only at a cost. This is a game that can't continue forever, particularly if credit is being foisted on to an already over-leveraged and slowing economy. At some point, the music will stop and there will have to be a reckoning. The longer China postpones that, the harder it will be.
Mark also submitted the following commentary:
It seems the best way to assess the likely effects and outcomes is to look at what the Chinese government can control, and at what it can't control. And we should observe at the start that the yuan is not a global reserve currency.
1. Beijing can control the amount of yuan in existence. It can therefore easily pay off all these bad internal debts, at least in a strict book keeping sense. And it can also recapitalize its bankrupt banks to any degree necessary, at least in yuan. The process of doing so involves assigning winners and losers. The latter group will comprise anyone earning a subsistence working wage in yuan and anyone whose assets primarily consist of savings in yuan.
2. Undertaking #1 will lead to a large increase in the amount of yuan in existence. Here Beijing will be acutely sensitive to any increase in food prices since this can swiftly lead to mass food riots and the concomitant rapid and bloody end of the regime. Therefore food prices have to be insulated somehow from this huge internal devaluation.
3. Beijing cannot permanently control the yuan-dollar exchange rate or any other FOREX rate involving yuan. It can do so in the short term but only to the limit of its usable foreign exchange reserves. This total is minus the FOREX working capital China needs to pay for imported raw materials and fuels. And also food: China’s Growing Demand for Agricultural Imports (USDA)
It appears that one certain outcome will be a huge depreciation in the value of yuan. Bailout of the bad bank debt is reason #1 to print yuan. The decline of yuan will lead to lower prices and a temporary relief of U.S.-based automation pressure on export market share. This begins to become a Reason #2.
How this will be received outside China is the immediate question. Probably not too favorably.
One way to paper over impaired loans is to issue a flood of new credit: this dilutes the problem and enables defaulted loans to be "paid down" with new loans that are doomed to default once the ink is dry: China Created A Record Half A Trillion Dollars Of Debt In January (Zero Hedge)
Here's the larger context of China's debt/currency implosion. From roughly 1989 to 2014--25 years--the "sure bet" in the global economy was to invest in China by moving production to China.
This flood of capital into China only gained momentum as the yuan appreciated in value against the USD once Chinese authorities loosened the peg from 8.3 to 6.6 and then all the way down to 6 to the dollar.
Every dollar transferred to China and converted to yuan gained as much as 25% over the years of yuan appreciation. Those hefty returns on cash sitting in yuan sparked a veritable tsunami of capital into China.
Now that the tide of capital has reversed, nobody wants yuan: not foreign firms, not FX punters and not the Chinese holding massive quantities of depreciating yuan.
This is why "housewives" from China are buying homes in Vancouver B.C. for $3 million. That $3 million could fall to $2 million as the yuan devalues to the old peg around 8.3 to the USD.
Who's left who believes the easy money is to be made in China? Nobody. Anyone seeking high quality overseas production is moving factories to the U.S. for its appreciating dollar and cheap energy, or to Vietnam or other locales with low labor costs and depreciated currencies.
For years, China bulls insisted China could crush the U.S. simply by selling a chunk of its $4 trillion foreign exchange reserves hoard of U.S. Treasuries. Now that China has dumped over $700 billion of its reserves in a matter of months, this assertion has been revealed as false: the demand for USD is strong enough to absorb all of China's selling and still push the USD higher.
The stark truth is nobody wants yuan any more. Why buy something that is sure to lose value? the only question is how much value? The basic facts suggest a 30% loss and a return to the old peg of 8.3 is baked in.
But that doesn't mean the devaluation of the yuan has to stop at 8.3: just as the dollar's recent strength is simply Stage One of a multi-stage liftoff, the yuan's devaluation to 8 to the USD is only the first stage of a multi-year devaluation.
Un interesante gráfico de RBS de la producción de petróleo de Estados Unidos, que muestra una gran caída en el número de perforaciones activas, pero una caída mucho menor en la producción real.
Los equipos de perforación han descendido un 63%, mientras que la producción solamente un 10%. Esto sugiere una mejora de la eficiencia y concentración de plataformas en zonas de alta producción.
10:15 El rally del mercado reduce las correlaciones
Lentamente, mientras los mercados globales muestran signos de despertar del desplome de principios de año, los movimientos que han paralizado los inversores desde Tokio a Nueva York están empezando a ceder.
Aunque cuatro días es una pequeña muestra, el tramo alcista en los mercados de acciones que comenzó el viernes está empezando a debilitar lazos previamente acorazados entre, por ejemplo, el índice Standard & Poor's 500 y activos como el petróleo y los bonos basura.
Este movimiento representa una inversión de la tendencia vista desde primeros de año, cuando las preocupaciones sobre el crecimiento económico y los riesgos de solvencia se unieron con fuerza.
11:01 La caída del último paraíso socialista
Los mercados esperan que un default de Venezuela ya que las reformas son demasiado cortas y llegan demasiado tarde.
10:53 ¿Qué países serían los más perjudicados ante un "Brexit"?
Si David Cameron termina liderando al Reino Unido fuera de la Unión Europea, arrastrará a todos los demás con él. Esa es la conclusión de un estudio académico sobre cuál sería el impacto económico de un "Brexit''. Nadie escapa ileso.
Utilizando un modelo que simula el efecto de una salida británica en el comercio y la producción en dos escenarios, los economistas encargados por la Fundación Bertelsmann de Alemania han calculado el impacto resultante en los ingresos per cápita.
El país más perjudicado sería el Reino Unido, seguido de Irlanda, Luxemburgo, Malta, Bélgica y Chipre.
Why The Chinese Yuan Will Lose 30% Of Its Value
02/18/2016 21:20 -0500
Submitted by Charles Hugh-S.
The stark truth is nobody wants yuan any more.
The U.S. dollar (USD) has gained over 35% against major currencies since 2011.
China's government has pegged its currency, the yuan (renminbi) to the USD for many years. Until mid-2005, the yuan was pegged at about 8.3 to the dollar. After numerous complaints that the yuan was being kept artificially low to boost Chinese exports to the U.S., the Chinese monetary authorities let the yuan appreciate from 8.3 to about 6.8 to the dollar in 2008.
This peg held steady until mid-2010, at which point the yuan slowly strengthened to 6 in early 2014. From that high point, the yuan has depreciated moderately to around 6.5 to the USD.
Interestingly, this is about the same level the yuan reached in 2011, when the USD struck its multiyear low. Since 2011, the USD has gained (depending on which index or weighting you choose) between 25% and 35%. I think the chart above (trade-weighted USD against major currencies) is more accurate than the conventional DXY index.
Due to the USD peg, the yuan has appreciated in lockstep with the U.S. dollar against other currencies. On the face of it, the yuan would need to devalue by 35% just to return to its pre-USD-strength level in 2011. This would imply an eventual return to the yuan's old peg around 8.3--or perhaps as high as 8.7.
Longtime correspondent Mark G. submitted this article China's Subprime Crisis Is Here:
The dynamic is clear. A splurge of new lending can help to dilute existing bad loans, but only at a cost. This is a game that can't continue forever, particularly if credit is being foisted on to an already over-leveraged and slowing economy. At some point, the music will stop and there will have to be a reckoning. The longer China postpones that, the harder it will be.
Mark also submitted the following commentary:
It seems the best way to assess the likely effects and outcomes is to look at what the Chinese government can control, and at what it can't control. And we should observe at the start that the yuan is not a global reserve currency.
1. Beijing can control the amount of yuan in existence. It can therefore easily pay off all these bad internal debts, at least in a strict book keeping sense. And it can also recapitalize its bankrupt banks to any degree necessary, at least in yuan. The process of doing so involves assigning winners and losers. The latter group will comprise anyone earning a subsistence working wage in yuan and anyone whose assets primarily consist of savings in yuan.
2. Undertaking #1 will lead to a large increase in the amount of yuan in existence. Here Beijing will be acutely sensitive to any increase in food prices since this can swiftly lead to mass food riots and the concomitant rapid and bloody end of the regime. Therefore food prices have to be insulated somehow from this huge internal devaluation.
3. Beijing cannot permanently control the yuan-dollar exchange rate or any other FOREX rate involving yuan. It can do so in the short term but only to the limit of its usable foreign exchange reserves. This total is minus the FOREX working capital China needs to pay for imported raw materials and fuels. And also food: China’s Growing Demand for Agricultural Imports (USDA)
It appears that one certain outcome will be a huge depreciation in the value of yuan. Bailout of the bad bank debt is reason #1 to print yuan. The decline of yuan will lead to lower prices and a temporary relief of U.S.-based automation pressure on export market share. This begins to become a Reason #2.
How this will be received outside China is the immediate question. Probably not too favorably.
One way to paper over impaired loans is to issue a flood of new credit: this dilutes the problem and enables defaulted loans to be "paid down" with new loans that are doomed to default once the ink is dry: China Created A Record Half A Trillion Dollars Of Debt In January (Zero Hedge)
Here's the larger context of China's debt/currency implosion. From roughly 1989 to 2014--25 years--the "sure bet" in the global economy was to invest in China by moving production to China.
This flood of capital into China only gained momentum as the yuan appreciated in value against the USD once Chinese authorities loosened the peg from 8.3 to 6.6 and then all the way down to 6 to the dollar.
Every dollar transferred to China and converted to yuan gained as much as 25% over the years of yuan appreciation. Those hefty returns on cash sitting in yuan sparked a veritable tsunami of capital into China.
Now that the tide of capital has reversed, nobody wants yuan: not foreign firms, not FX punters and not the Chinese holding massive quantities of depreciating yuan.
This is why "housewives" from China are buying homes in Vancouver B.C. for $3 million. That $3 million could fall to $2 million as the yuan devalues to the old peg around 8.3 to the USD.
Who's left who believes the easy money is to be made in China? Nobody. Anyone seeking high quality overseas production is moving factories to the U.S. for its appreciating dollar and cheap energy, or to Vietnam or other locales with low labor costs and depreciated currencies.
For years, China bulls insisted China could crush the U.S. simply by selling a chunk of its $4 trillion foreign exchange reserves hoard of U.S. Treasuries. Now that China has dumped over $700 billion of its reserves in a matter of months, this assertion has been revealed as false: the demand for USD is strong enough to absorb all of China's selling and still push the USD higher.
The stark truth is nobody wants yuan any more. Why buy something that is sure to lose value? the only question is how much value? The basic facts suggest a 30% loss and a return to the old peg of 8.3 is baked in.
But that doesn't mean the devaluation of the yuan has to stop at 8.3: just as the dollar's recent strength is simply Stage One of a multi-stage liftoff, the yuan's devaluation to 8 to the USD is only the first stage of a multi-year devaluation.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
por Fenix » Vie Feb 19, 2016 7:26 pm
La extrema volatilidad permanecerá durante algún tiempo
Viernes, 19 de Febrero del 2016 - 11:09:00
Los mercados se mantendrán volátiles mientras la economía mundial se desacelera y los bancos centrales se meten en el peligroso mundo de las tasas de interés negativas, dice la gestora Capital Group que maneja 1,4 billones de dólares.
Es probable que las turbulencias persistan ya que las tasas negativas y la deflación suponen una "amenaza real" en Japón y Europa, escribió Capital Group en una nota a sus clientes esta semana. El riesgo de una recesión en EE.UU. ha aumentado, dicen, lo que significa que la Reserva Federal probablemente no va a aumentar los costos de endeudamiento en 2016.
"La gran pregunta es si la economía de EE.UU. se verá perjudicada por los problemas en el extranjero; tendremos que ver". "Al menos, hay que espera que medio ambiente para las ganancias de las empresas estadounidenses sea un verdadero desafío en 2016".
Después de que la volatilidad de una medida de la renta variable global subiera el mes pasado al nivel más alto desde septiembre (ver gráfico adjunto, volatilidad del Nikkei), Capital Group está aconsejando a los clientes diversificar en todas las clases de activos, incluidos los bonos.
Fed Skeptics Seek Gold Safe-Haven As Bullion Bears Capitulate
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 21:45 -0500
Gold is having one of its best starts to a year in history as investors start to lose faith in central bankers’ ability to deal with economic challenges. Fed skeptics as well as capitulating bullion bears are being drawn to the precious metals as Bloomberg reports,
“The safe-haven demand appears to be where people are focused on, and that is on a loss of faith in central banks being able to manage through this period,” said Klein, executive chairman of Australia’s second-biggest producer.
Bullion is “certainly getting more attention from people who have generally been bears over the past few years,” Klein said in a phone interview.
Even with the weakness of the last few days, Gold is still up 15% YTD - the best in at least a decade...
Prices have gained as investors scaled back expectations for tighter policy from the Fed...
“There seems to be general skepticism now, both from the Fed’s language and from market participants, as to whether that’s going to be possible,” said Klein, who’s been a gold-industry executive for about 20 years.
“All the financial markets, and all the asset classes, seem to be highly sensitive to central-bank policy.”
Gold's standout year is also driving some long-term bears to capitulate... (as Bloomberg details)
For years, ABN AMRO Group NV’s Georgette Boele has been a staunch bear on gold as prices tumbled. Now with gold on the brink of a bull market, she’s changed her tune.
Boele changed her year-end forecast to $1,300 an ounce from $900, according to report released Tuesday.
ABN Amro is becoming more pessimistic about the global economy, especially in the U.S., emerging markets and countries with exposure to oil. Boele no longer expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.
“Having been long-standing bears we have now turned bullish on precious metal prices,” Boele wrote. “Our new scenario sees a longer period of weaker global growth.”
As Klein concludes, "it does seem like there’s a general review of gold as an investment sector by people who haven’t been interested in it for years." And yet Goldman will still do its best to tell you to sell your gold (to them).
11:24 "Mas grietas" en los mercados de créditos
El fondo Fortress Investment Group LLC que ha pronosticado una crisis de crédito en Asia que rivalizará la de 1997 dice que está viendo más señales de peligro.
"Volviendo a la analogía del barco que se hunde que hemos utilizado anteriormente, están apareciendo más grietas en el casco de la nave crédito", dice David Dredge, jefe de inversiones con de Fortress Convex Asia Fund. "Dos de estos problemas en nuestra opinión son la caída incesante de los precios del petróleo y de las materias primas y la depreciación del renminbi onshore y offshore".
Fortress Convex, que perdió un 3,1 por ciento el año pasado, dijo que la caída de los precios del petróleo y de las materias primas y la depreciación del yuan son señales que advierten de una proxima crisis de crédito. La ansiedad sobre la capacidad de China para administrar una desaceleración de la economía y el desplome del precio del petróleo han enturbiado las perspectivas de crecimiento global y ejercido presión sobre el yuan.
Viernes, 19 de Febrero del 2016 - 11:09:00
Los mercados se mantendrán volátiles mientras la economía mundial se desacelera y los bancos centrales se meten en el peligroso mundo de las tasas de interés negativas, dice la gestora Capital Group que maneja 1,4 billones de dólares.
Es probable que las turbulencias persistan ya que las tasas negativas y la deflación suponen una "amenaza real" en Japón y Europa, escribió Capital Group en una nota a sus clientes esta semana. El riesgo de una recesión en EE.UU. ha aumentado, dicen, lo que significa que la Reserva Federal probablemente no va a aumentar los costos de endeudamiento en 2016.
"La gran pregunta es si la economía de EE.UU. se verá perjudicada por los problemas en el extranjero; tendremos que ver". "Al menos, hay que espera que medio ambiente para las ganancias de las empresas estadounidenses sea un verdadero desafío en 2016".
Después de que la volatilidad de una medida de la renta variable global subiera el mes pasado al nivel más alto desde septiembre (ver gráfico adjunto, volatilidad del Nikkei), Capital Group está aconsejando a los clientes diversificar en todas las clases de activos, incluidos los bonos.
Fed Skeptics Seek Gold Safe-Haven As Bullion Bears Capitulate
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 21:45 -0500
Gold is having one of its best starts to a year in history as investors start to lose faith in central bankers’ ability to deal with economic challenges. Fed skeptics as well as capitulating bullion bears are being drawn to the precious metals as Bloomberg reports,
“The safe-haven demand appears to be where people are focused on, and that is on a loss of faith in central banks being able to manage through this period,” said Klein, executive chairman of Australia’s second-biggest producer.
Bullion is “certainly getting more attention from people who have generally been bears over the past few years,” Klein said in a phone interview.
Even with the weakness of the last few days, Gold is still up 15% YTD - the best in at least a decade...
Prices have gained as investors scaled back expectations for tighter policy from the Fed...
“There seems to be general skepticism now, both from the Fed’s language and from market participants, as to whether that’s going to be possible,” said Klein, who’s been a gold-industry executive for about 20 years.
“All the financial markets, and all the asset classes, seem to be highly sensitive to central-bank policy.”
Gold's standout year is also driving some long-term bears to capitulate... (as Bloomberg details)
For years, ABN AMRO Group NV’s Georgette Boele has been a staunch bear on gold as prices tumbled. Now with gold on the brink of a bull market, she’s changed her tune.
Boele changed her year-end forecast to $1,300 an ounce from $900, according to report released Tuesday.
ABN Amro is becoming more pessimistic about the global economy, especially in the U.S., emerging markets and countries with exposure to oil. Boele no longer expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year.
“Having been long-standing bears we have now turned bullish on precious metal prices,” Boele wrote. “Our new scenario sees a longer period of weaker global growth.”
As Klein concludes, "it does seem like there’s a general review of gold as an investment sector by people who haven’t been interested in it for years." And yet Goldman will still do its best to tell you to sell your gold (to them).
11:24 "Mas grietas" en los mercados de créditos
El fondo Fortress Investment Group LLC que ha pronosticado una crisis de crédito en Asia que rivalizará la de 1997 dice que está viendo más señales de peligro.
"Volviendo a la analogía del barco que se hunde que hemos utilizado anteriormente, están apareciendo más grietas en el casco de la nave crédito", dice David Dredge, jefe de inversiones con de Fortress Convex Asia Fund. "Dos de estos problemas en nuestra opinión son la caída incesante de los precios del petróleo y de las materias primas y la depreciación del renminbi onshore y offshore".
Fortress Convex, que perdió un 3,1 por ciento el año pasado, dijo que la caída de los precios del petróleo y de las materias primas y la depreciación del yuan son señales que advierten de una proxima crisis de crédito. La ansiedad sobre la capacidad de China para administrar una desaceleración de la economía y el desplome del precio del petróleo han enturbiado las perspectivas de crecimiento global y ejercido presión sobre el yuan.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
por Fenix » Vie Feb 19, 2016 7:29 pm
Las Bolsas europeas corrigen tras una semana de rebote
El Ibex 35 se deja un 1,22% a 8.194,2
Viernes, 19 de Febrero del 2016 - 11:39:53
Las bolsas europeas cierran con caídas extendiendo la recogida de beneficios de ayer, especialmente en las acciones bancarias, las petroleras y los fabricantes de automóviles. Los mercados de renta variable ya mostraron ayer síntomas de cansancio, que hoy se han confirmado corrigiendo una semana de fuertes ganancias.
El índice paneuropeo FTSEurofirst 300 cayó un 0,9 por ciento a puntos, pero todavía recuperan un 4 por ciento desde el lunes, marcando la mejor semana desde octubre de 2015. El Euro Stoxx 50 retrocede un 1,10 por ciento a 2.863,31 y el Ibex 35 un 1,22 por ciento a 8.194,2.
"El mercado estaba cerca de un rebote debido a las extremas condiciones de sobreventa alcanzados... pero la historia subyacente no ha cambiado, y la gente no quiere correr riesgos de cara al fin de semana," dijo Mike McCudden, jefe de derivados Interactive Investor.
"Todavía hay lastre por parte de los productores de petróleo y las preocupaciones sobre los bancos". El peor sector de la jornada fue el bancario, un -2,5 por ciento. Siguen estando un 7,5 por ciento por encima de los mínimos de la semana pasada, pero cae más de un 20 por ciento desde principios de año ya que los inversores creen que no podrán proteger sus beneficios en un entorno de bajo crecimiento y bajas tasas de interés.
Los precios del petróleo también reanudaron su marcha bajista después de que la acumulación de inventarios en Estados Unidos reavivara las preocupaciones sobre el exceso de oferta mundial. El sector petrolero se deja un 0,6 por ciento.
"En esta etapa... todavía no está claro si el rebote ha finalizado o si sólo se trata de una consolidación "normal" y muy necesaria antes del siguiente tramo alcista, señalaba un tarde de la City londinense.
Las acciones de automóviles cayeron un 1,6 por ciento, con escándalo Volkswagen nuevamente bajo la lupa. Los títulos de Volkswagen se dejaron un 3,9 por ciento después de informaciones que señala que VW no espera llegar a un acuerdo con Estados Unidos sobre el fraude de las emisiones
Los precios del crudo, que se han movido al unísono con el mercado de valores durante gran parte del año, cayeron un 3 por ciento después del aumento récord en los inventarios estadounidenses.
en el plano macroeconómico, el índice de precios al consumidor en Estados Unidos subió una décima más de lo esperado, un 0,3 por ciento en enero, dando signos de un aumento en las presiones de precios que podrían permitir a la Reserva Federal elevar gradualmente las tasas de interés este año.
Los precios del petróleo subieron más de un 14 por ciento en los últimos tres días después de que Arabia Saudita y Rusia, con el apoyo de otros exportadores como Venezuela e Irak, comenzaran a dar pasos para congelar la producción de petróleo en los niveles de enero. Irán apoyó el plan sin comprometerse el miércoles.
Si se aprueba, sería el primer acuerdo de este tipo en 15 años entre la Organización de los Países Exportadores de Petróleo y los miembros no-OPEP.
El yen se apreció frente al euro y el dólar el viernes después de otra sesión de descensos en los precios del petróleo y los mercados de valores de todo el mundo, lo que subraya las preocupaciones sobre el crecimiento global.
El dólar, sin embargo, avanzó ligeramente tras los datos de inflación en Estados Unidos de enero algo por encima de lo esperado. El Dollar index cotiza en 96,99.
Esta aversión por los activos de riesgo beneficio al oro, que sube un 0,4 por ciento a 1.231,50 dólares la onza.
Dinero, dinero
José Luis Martínez Campuzano de Citi
Viernes, 19 de Febrero del 2016 - 12:00:00
Sigue la salida de dinero de los fondos de bolsa a nivel mundial, de acuerdo con nuestros datos. En la última semana fueron más de 12.2 bn. de ventas de fondos de bolsa y compras de apenas 1 bn. en los fondos de renta fija.
Segunda semana consecutiva de salidas de dinero de los fondos de bolsa europea por 4.2 bn. con ventas de los fondos de bolsa USA por más de 5.7 bn. ¿Por qué no se ha reflejado en nuevas caídas de los mercados? ya saben que durante la semana hemos visto subidas de las bolsas mundiales de entre el 3- 4 %. Incluso más del 6 % en el caso del Nikkei, cuando hemos visto salidas marginales de dinero de los fondos de bolsa japonesa.
Lo cierto es que en el pasado, al final, el mercado siempre ha tenido razón: su subida, como la propia calma, atrae a los inversores. Veremos.
Y ventas por 296 M. de dinero de fondos de bolsa emergente. Pero vimos compras por 335 M. de fondos de bolsa asiática.
Invierta en renta variable el máximo porcentaje que le permita dormir tranquilo
Carlos Montero
Viernes, 19 de Febrero del 2016 - 12:31:00
Este fin de semana un amigo me preguntó qué porcentaje de renta variable tendría que tener una cartera destinada a la jubilación. Es una duda muy común entre los inversores que destinan parte de sus ingresos mensuales a ahorrar para cuando dejen de trabajar. Daré mi opinión en este artículo:
Hay una regla no escrita en bolsa que señala que la exposición de un inversor a la bolsa es inversamente proporcional a la edad que tenga, concretamente tu posición en renta variable tiene que ser igual al 100% menos tus años. Por ejemplo si tienes 30 años la exposición debería ser del 70%. Si tienes 70 años la exposición sería del 30%.
Pero esta es una aproximación básica que no se corresponde con los datos históricos. El mítico inversor Warren Buffet afirma que la respuesta correcta es del 90%. Este nivel de posicionamiento, incómodo para la mayoría de inversores, podría sin embargo resultar conservador. El motivo es que a plazos largos la renta variable ha demostrado ser más rentable que la renta fija.
En la siguiente tabla elaborada por el New York Times con los datos de Morningstar, se muestra como históricamente a un plazo de 12 meses la renta variable es más rentable que los bonos de largo plazo en un 63% de los casos. A 5 años este porcentaje sube al 71%. A 10 años al 83%, y a 30 años al 99%. Lo mismo se puede decir si comparamos la rentabilidad de la bolsa con la de los bonos a medio y corto plazo.
Por tanto, si nuestra decisión de posicionamiento dependiera única y exclusivamente en datos históricos, la recomendación que más se ajustaría a los datos históricos sería tener invertido el 100% de la cartera en renta variable.
De cualquier forma, hay un dicho que creo más acertado y que recoge no sólo un motivo económico sino también una razón personal. Invierta en renta variable el máximo porcentaje que le permita dormir tranquilo.
Lacartadelabolsa
El Ibex 35 se deja un 1,22% a 8.194,2
Viernes, 19 de Febrero del 2016 - 11:39:53
Las bolsas europeas cierran con caídas extendiendo la recogida de beneficios de ayer, especialmente en las acciones bancarias, las petroleras y los fabricantes de automóviles. Los mercados de renta variable ya mostraron ayer síntomas de cansancio, que hoy se han confirmado corrigiendo una semana de fuertes ganancias.
El índice paneuropeo FTSEurofirst 300 cayó un 0,9 por ciento a puntos, pero todavía recuperan un 4 por ciento desde el lunes, marcando la mejor semana desde octubre de 2015. El Euro Stoxx 50 retrocede un 1,10 por ciento a 2.863,31 y el Ibex 35 un 1,22 por ciento a 8.194,2.
"El mercado estaba cerca de un rebote debido a las extremas condiciones de sobreventa alcanzados... pero la historia subyacente no ha cambiado, y la gente no quiere correr riesgos de cara al fin de semana," dijo Mike McCudden, jefe de derivados Interactive Investor.
"Todavía hay lastre por parte de los productores de petróleo y las preocupaciones sobre los bancos". El peor sector de la jornada fue el bancario, un -2,5 por ciento. Siguen estando un 7,5 por ciento por encima de los mínimos de la semana pasada, pero cae más de un 20 por ciento desde principios de año ya que los inversores creen que no podrán proteger sus beneficios en un entorno de bajo crecimiento y bajas tasas de interés.
Los precios del petróleo también reanudaron su marcha bajista después de que la acumulación de inventarios en Estados Unidos reavivara las preocupaciones sobre el exceso de oferta mundial. El sector petrolero se deja un 0,6 por ciento.
"En esta etapa... todavía no está claro si el rebote ha finalizado o si sólo se trata de una consolidación "normal" y muy necesaria antes del siguiente tramo alcista, señalaba un tarde de la City londinense.
Las acciones de automóviles cayeron un 1,6 por ciento, con escándalo Volkswagen nuevamente bajo la lupa. Los títulos de Volkswagen se dejaron un 3,9 por ciento después de informaciones que señala que VW no espera llegar a un acuerdo con Estados Unidos sobre el fraude de las emisiones
Los precios del crudo, que se han movido al unísono con el mercado de valores durante gran parte del año, cayeron un 3 por ciento después del aumento récord en los inventarios estadounidenses.
en el plano macroeconómico, el índice de precios al consumidor en Estados Unidos subió una décima más de lo esperado, un 0,3 por ciento en enero, dando signos de un aumento en las presiones de precios que podrían permitir a la Reserva Federal elevar gradualmente las tasas de interés este año.
Los precios del petróleo subieron más de un 14 por ciento en los últimos tres días después de que Arabia Saudita y Rusia, con el apoyo de otros exportadores como Venezuela e Irak, comenzaran a dar pasos para congelar la producción de petróleo en los niveles de enero. Irán apoyó el plan sin comprometerse el miércoles.
Si se aprueba, sería el primer acuerdo de este tipo en 15 años entre la Organización de los Países Exportadores de Petróleo y los miembros no-OPEP.
El yen se apreció frente al euro y el dólar el viernes después de otra sesión de descensos en los precios del petróleo y los mercados de valores de todo el mundo, lo que subraya las preocupaciones sobre el crecimiento global.
El dólar, sin embargo, avanzó ligeramente tras los datos de inflación en Estados Unidos de enero algo por encima de lo esperado. El Dollar index cotiza en 96,99.
Esta aversión por los activos de riesgo beneficio al oro, que sube un 0,4 por ciento a 1.231,50 dólares la onza.
Dinero, dinero
José Luis Martínez Campuzano de Citi
Viernes, 19 de Febrero del 2016 - 12:00:00
Sigue la salida de dinero de los fondos de bolsa a nivel mundial, de acuerdo con nuestros datos. En la última semana fueron más de 12.2 bn. de ventas de fondos de bolsa y compras de apenas 1 bn. en los fondos de renta fija.
Segunda semana consecutiva de salidas de dinero de los fondos de bolsa europea por 4.2 bn. con ventas de los fondos de bolsa USA por más de 5.7 bn. ¿Por qué no se ha reflejado en nuevas caídas de los mercados? ya saben que durante la semana hemos visto subidas de las bolsas mundiales de entre el 3- 4 %. Incluso más del 6 % en el caso del Nikkei, cuando hemos visto salidas marginales de dinero de los fondos de bolsa japonesa.
Lo cierto es que en el pasado, al final, el mercado siempre ha tenido razón: su subida, como la propia calma, atrae a los inversores. Veremos.
Y ventas por 296 M. de dinero de fondos de bolsa emergente. Pero vimos compras por 335 M. de fondos de bolsa asiática.
Invierta en renta variable el máximo porcentaje que le permita dormir tranquilo
Carlos Montero
Viernes, 19 de Febrero del 2016 - 12:31:00
Este fin de semana un amigo me preguntó qué porcentaje de renta variable tendría que tener una cartera destinada a la jubilación. Es una duda muy común entre los inversores que destinan parte de sus ingresos mensuales a ahorrar para cuando dejen de trabajar. Daré mi opinión en este artículo:
Hay una regla no escrita en bolsa que señala que la exposición de un inversor a la bolsa es inversamente proporcional a la edad que tenga, concretamente tu posición en renta variable tiene que ser igual al 100% menos tus años. Por ejemplo si tienes 30 años la exposición debería ser del 70%. Si tienes 70 años la exposición sería del 30%.
Pero esta es una aproximación básica que no se corresponde con los datos históricos. El mítico inversor Warren Buffet afirma que la respuesta correcta es del 90%. Este nivel de posicionamiento, incómodo para la mayoría de inversores, podría sin embargo resultar conservador. El motivo es que a plazos largos la renta variable ha demostrado ser más rentable que la renta fija.
En la siguiente tabla elaborada por el New York Times con los datos de Morningstar, se muestra como históricamente a un plazo de 12 meses la renta variable es más rentable que los bonos de largo plazo en un 63% de los casos. A 5 años este porcentaje sube al 71%. A 10 años al 83%, y a 30 años al 99%. Lo mismo se puede decir si comparamos la rentabilidad de la bolsa con la de los bonos a medio y corto plazo.
Por tanto, si nuestra decisión de posicionamiento dependiera única y exclusivamente en datos históricos, la recomendación que más se ajustaría a los datos históricos sería tener invertido el 100% de la cartera en renta variable.
De cualquier forma, hay un dicho que creo más acertado y que recoge no sólo un motivo económico sino también una razón personal. Invierta en renta variable el máximo porcentaje que le permita dormir tranquilo.
Lacartadelabolsa
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
por Fenix » Vie Feb 19, 2016 7:32 pm
14:17 Occidental Petroleum: nuestro punto de rotación se sitúa en 65.9
Trading Central
Nuestro punto de rotación se sitúa en 65.9.
Nuestra preferencia: la subida se mantiene siempre que el soporte se sitúe en 65.9.
Escenario alternativo: por debajo de 65.9, el riesgo es una caída hasta 60.9 y 57.9.
En lo referente al análisis técnico, el índice de fuerza relativa (RSI) se encuentra por encima de su zona de neutralidad de 50. El indicador de convergencia/divergencia de medias móviles (MACD) se sitúa por encima de su línea de señal y es positivo.
Asimismo, la acción se sitúa por encima de su media móvil de 20 y 50 días (se sitúa a 66.02 y 65.95 respectivamente).
14:32 ¿Qué piensan los economistas sobre las tasas negativas?
Bloomberg ha encuestado a 63 economistas que analizan a los bancos centrales de la zona del euro, Suiza, Dinamarca, Suecia y Japón, donde ya se han aplicado las tasas de política negativos. El resultado es que creen que las tasas por debajo de cero funcionan mejor en pequeñas economías abiertas que en las economías más grandes.
El noventa por ciento de los economistas eran positivos con el Banco Nacional de Dinamarca, mientras que el 70 por ciento eran optimistas con respecto a la experiencia del Banco Nacional de Suiza. Las similitudes entre los dos son claras; ambos se basan en economías relativamente abiertas, y aplican las tasas negativas con el fin de ayudar a manejar sus monedas.
150 empresas del petróleo y gas en riesgo de quiebra
Viernes, 19 de Febrero del 2016 - 15:24:00
Alrededor de 150 compañías de petróleo y gas según el consultor de energía IHS pueden ir a la quiebra debido al desplome de los precios por el exceso de oferta.
El número de empresas en situación de riesgo más que dobla los 60 productores que ya se han declarado en quiebra, dijo Bob Fryklund, jefe de análisis de IHS. Estas turbulencias van a ayudar a cerrar acuerdos que se han mantenido a la espera porque los compradores y vendedores no se habían puesto de acuerdo sobre el valor de los activos, dijo.
El petróleo se ha desplomado un 70 por ciento en los últimos dos años porque los productores de esquisto de Estados Unidos impulsó la producción y la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo inundaron el mercado con crudo para expulsar a los proveedores de mayor costo.
Más quiebras sería una señal de que los precios de la energía han tocado fondo y ayudarían a poner en marcha ofertas por los 230.000 millones de dólares en activos de petróleo y gas que están actualmente en venta.
"Nadie está comprando porque hay un desajuste entre las expectativas", dijo Fryklund en una entrevista en Tokio. "Tenemos que cerrar esa brecha. Y ocurrirá porque las quiebras aumentarán".
Las tres quintas partes de los economistas encuestados califican la política del BCE como ineficaz.
El capital golondrina
Viernes, 19 de Febrero del 2016 - 15:52:00
La liquidez nunca está quieta. Y en un mundo global, la liquidez (vamos a diferenciarla del dinero que se gasta o invierte en crecimiento) busca activos financieros ponderando en su elección una combinación determinada (pero no fija) de riesgo/rentabilidad.
En escenarios optimistas inicialmente, de euforia después, la liquidez hace pocas preguntas infravalorando el riesgo.
En situaciones de miedo, que pueden llevar al pánico, los inversores liquidan activos ante el objetivo de “gestionar el riesgo”.
En el lado optimista, no se hacen muchas preguntas; en el miedo/pánico la falta de respuestas a las numerosas preguntas llega a colapsarte.
La liquidez, mucha, que fluyó hacia los activos emergentes favorecida por los QE de los primeros años de la Crisis en parte ha vuelto de nuevo a los mercados desarrollados en los últimos años.
En el siguiente gráfico vemos la estimación que hace el FMI sobre la evolución de los flujos de inversión financiera y directa hacia las economías en desarrollo, considerándolo en términos relativos a su PIB.
También lo que muestra el gráfico anterior es el mayor peso de la inversión financiera en los últimos años desde una perspectiva histórica. Es más: la Crisis de los ochenta y noventa en las economías emergentes alejó el capital financiero hasta volver a recuperar un protagonismo significativo tras la Gran Recesión. ¿Algo temporal? Espero que no. Considerando, además, tanto el bajo crecimiento potencial de las economías desarrolladas (baja rentabilidad/elevado riesgo) como el mayor protagonismo en términos de crecimiento de las emergentes (elevada rentabilidad/elevado riesgo).
El miércoles fue un día especialmente complicado para algunos importantes países emergentes, con recortes de rating (Brasil, Arabia Saudita), ajustes de política económica (Venezuela) y sorpresas al alza en los tipos de interés oficiales (México). En el fondo, sinónimo en todos los casos de problemas económicos internacionales que se reflejan con virulencia en sus mercados y economías. Esto es importante: la integración financiera internacional hace que estos países estén más expuestos que en el pasado a potenciales shocks internacionales. De forma implícita, esto obliga a que sus autoridades utilicen estas entradas de dinero internacional de forma productiva ante el riesgo de que su reversión más tarde tenga claros efectos distorsionadores.
¿Cómo minimizar los riesgos del capital golondrina? Se pueden imaginar que la principal recomendación pasa por reformas que aumenten el crecimiento potencial y medidas encaminadas a aumentar la disciplina fiscal y mejorar competitividad.
Pero, también les digo que esto no es nada fácil. De hecho, aunque aquí hablamos de los riesgo derivados de la inestabilidad financiera internacional sobre los mercados y economías emergentes también podríamos verlo en términos de las economías y mercados desarrollados. No lo tomen a la ligera: ¿qué puede pasar en el futuro si los inversores internacionales vuelven a sobreponderar la rentabilidad frente al riesgo? Esto les llevaría de nuevo a mirar a los mercados emergentes como una oportunidad. Y puede que no estemos tan lejos de este escenario de lo que muchos piensan. Pero, naturalmente, son los bancos centrales de países desarrollados los que pueden minimizar el riesgo de esta inestabilidad. Como lo están haciendo en estos momentos.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
Trading Central
Nuestro punto de rotación se sitúa en 65.9.
Nuestra preferencia: la subida se mantiene siempre que el soporte se sitúe en 65.9.
Escenario alternativo: por debajo de 65.9, el riesgo es una caída hasta 60.9 y 57.9.
En lo referente al análisis técnico, el índice de fuerza relativa (RSI) se encuentra por encima de su zona de neutralidad de 50. El indicador de convergencia/divergencia de medias móviles (MACD) se sitúa por encima de su línea de señal y es positivo.
Asimismo, la acción se sitúa por encima de su media móvil de 20 y 50 días (se sitúa a 66.02 y 65.95 respectivamente).
14:32 ¿Qué piensan los economistas sobre las tasas negativas?
Bloomberg ha encuestado a 63 economistas que analizan a los bancos centrales de la zona del euro, Suiza, Dinamarca, Suecia y Japón, donde ya se han aplicado las tasas de política negativos. El resultado es que creen que las tasas por debajo de cero funcionan mejor en pequeñas economías abiertas que en las economías más grandes.
El noventa por ciento de los economistas eran positivos con el Banco Nacional de Dinamarca, mientras que el 70 por ciento eran optimistas con respecto a la experiencia del Banco Nacional de Suiza. Las similitudes entre los dos son claras; ambos se basan en economías relativamente abiertas, y aplican las tasas negativas con el fin de ayudar a manejar sus monedas.
150 empresas del petróleo y gas en riesgo de quiebra
Viernes, 19 de Febrero del 2016 - 15:24:00
Alrededor de 150 compañías de petróleo y gas según el consultor de energía IHS pueden ir a la quiebra debido al desplome de los precios por el exceso de oferta.
El número de empresas en situación de riesgo más que dobla los 60 productores que ya se han declarado en quiebra, dijo Bob Fryklund, jefe de análisis de IHS. Estas turbulencias van a ayudar a cerrar acuerdos que se han mantenido a la espera porque los compradores y vendedores no se habían puesto de acuerdo sobre el valor de los activos, dijo.
El petróleo se ha desplomado un 70 por ciento en los últimos dos años porque los productores de esquisto de Estados Unidos impulsó la producción y la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo inundaron el mercado con crudo para expulsar a los proveedores de mayor costo.
Más quiebras sería una señal de que los precios de la energía han tocado fondo y ayudarían a poner en marcha ofertas por los 230.000 millones de dólares en activos de petróleo y gas que están actualmente en venta.
"Nadie está comprando porque hay un desajuste entre las expectativas", dijo Fryklund en una entrevista en Tokio. "Tenemos que cerrar esa brecha. Y ocurrirá porque las quiebras aumentarán".
Las tres quintas partes de los economistas encuestados califican la política del BCE como ineficaz.
El capital golondrina
Viernes, 19 de Febrero del 2016 - 15:52:00
La liquidez nunca está quieta. Y en un mundo global, la liquidez (vamos a diferenciarla del dinero que se gasta o invierte en crecimiento) busca activos financieros ponderando en su elección una combinación determinada (pero no fija) de riesgo/rentabilidad.
En escenarios optimistas inicialmente, de euforia después, la liquidez hace pocas preguntas infravalorando el riesgo.
En situaciones de miedo, que pueden llevar al pánico, los inversores liquidan activos ante el objetivo de “gestionar el riesgo”.
En el lado optimista, no se hacen muchas preguntas; en el miedo/pánico la falta de respuestas a las numerosas preguntas llega a colapsarte.
La liquidez, mucha, que fluyó hacia los activos emergentes favorecida por los QE de los primeros años de la Crisis en parte ha vuelto de nuevo a los mercados desarrollados en los últimos años.
En el siguiente gráfico vemos la estimación que hace el FMI sobre la evolución de los flujos de inversión financiera y directa hacia las economías en desarrollo, considerándolo en términos relativos a su PIB.
También lo que muestra el gráfico anterior es el mayor peso de la inversión financiera en los últimos años desde una perspectiva histórica. Es más: la Crisis de los ochenta y noventa en las economías emergentes alejó el capital financiero hasta volver a recuperar un protagonismo significativo tras la Gran Recesión. ¿Algo temporal? Espero que no. Considerando, además, tanto el bajo crecimiento potencial de las economías desarrolladas (baja rentabilidad/elevado riesgo) como el mayor protagonismo en términos de crecimiento de las emergentes (elevada rentabilidad/elevado riesgo).
El miércoles fue un día especialmente complicado para algunos importantes países emergentes, con recortes de rating (Brasil, Arabia Saudita), ajustes de política económica (Venezuela) y sorpresas al alza en los tipos de interés oficiales (México). En el fondo, sinónimo en todos los casos de problemas económicos internacionales que se reflejan con virulencia en sus mercados y economías. Esto es importante: la integración financiera internacional hace que estos países estén más expuestos que en el pasado a potenciales shocks internacionales. De forma implícita, esto obliga a que sus autoridades utilicen estas entradas de dinero internacional de forma productiva ante el riesgo de que su reversión más tarde tenga claros efectos distorsionadores.
¿Cómo minimizar los riesgos del capital golondrina? Se pueden imaginar que la principal recomendación pasa por reformas que aumenten el crecimiento potencial y medidas encaminadas a aumentar la disciplina fiscal y mejorar competitividad.
Pero, también les digo que esto no es nada fácil. De hecho, aunque aquí hablamos de los riesgo derivados de la inestabilidad financiera internacional sobre los mercados y economías emergentes también podríamos verlo en términos de las economías y mercados desarrollados. No lo tomen a la ligera: ¿qué puede pasar en el futuro si los inversores internacionales vuelven a sobreponderar la rentabilidad frente al riesgo? Esto les llevaría de nuevo a mirar a los mercados emergentes como una oportunidad. Y puede que no estemos tan lejos de este escenario de lo que muchos piensan. Pero, naturalmente, son los bancos centrales de países desarrollados los que pueden minimizar el riesgo de esta inestabilidad. Como lo están haciendo en estos momentos.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
por Fenix » Vie Feb 19, 2016 7:42 pm
Chinese Money-Market Rates Are Spiking As Post-New-Year Liquidity Hangover Hits
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 23:16
It would appear the Chinese central bank currency squeeze is back as money-market rates are exploding higher once again. With the outpuring of liquidity heading into the new-year holiday, the post-celebration hangover was always likely unless PBOC just kept pumping but judging by the 500bps spike in overnight Yuan interbank rates to 9.3%, more than a few banks are desperate for some liquidity. We note that the last six times that Chinese banks have suffered liquidity constraints, US equities have tumbled...
"I Guess It's Food Stamps": 400,000 Americans In Jeopardy As Giant Pension Fund Plans 50% Benefit Cuts
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 23:56
"You know anybody hiring a 73-year-old mechanic? I’m available."
Futures Sink To Session Lows, Europe Slides Following Chinese RRR Hike Confusion, Brexit Concerns
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 06:56
Not even this morning's mandatory European open ramp has been able to push US equity futures higher, and as a result moments ago the E-mini hit session lows on rising concerns about Brexit as talks drag on in Brussles, but mostly as a result of overnight confusion about China's loan explosion and whether the PBOC has lost control over its maniacally-lending banks.
Deere In Headlights After Guidance Cut: Sees 10% Sales Drop Due To "Downturn In Global Farm Economy"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 07:18
It is not just Caterpillar that continues to post horrendous numbers, and has now recorded 38 consecutive months of declining Y/Y sales, double the length of the contraction of the great financial crisis. Moments ago heavy farm equipment maker Deere likewise shocked its investors with a round of terrible numbers, when at first it reported a revenue and EPS beat, announced it had earned $0.80 EPS in Q4, above the $0.71 estimate, on $5.53BN in revenue, well above the $4.90BN expected, however it was the unprecedented drop in the forecast that was the punchline.
These Activist Investors Have Been Crushed By The Oil Rout
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 08:13
Thirteen activist investors with the largest fund exposure to the energy sector have suffered a combined $9.2 billion in unrealized paper losses in 2015, according to quarterly filings analyzed by hedge fund data firm Symmetric.io. But nobody's combined loss is as big as that of Carl Icahn.
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 23:16
It would appear the Chinese central bank currency squeeze is back as money-market rates are exploding higher once again. With the outpuring of liquidity heading into the new-year holiday, the post-celebration hangover was always likely unless PBOC just kept pumping but judging by the 500bps spike in overnight Yuan interbank rates to 9.3%, more than a few banks are desperate for some liquidity. We note that the last six times that Chinese banks have suffered liquidity constraints, US equities have tumbled...
"I Guess It's Food Stamps": 400,000 Americans In Jeopardy As Giant Pension Fund Plans 50% Benefit Cuts
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/18/2016 - 23:56
"You know anybody hiring a 73-year-old mechanic? I’m available."
Futures Sink To Session Lows, Europe Slides Following Chinese RRR Hike Confusion, Brexit Concerns
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 06:56
Not even this morning's mandatory European open ramp has been able to push US equity futures higher, and as a result moments ago the E-mini hit session lows on rising concerns about Brexit as talks drag on in Brussles, but mostly as a result of overnight confusion about China's loan explosion and whether the PBOC has lost control over its maniacally-lending banks.
Deere In Headlights After Guidance Cut: Sees 10% Sales Drop Due To "Downturn In Global Farm Economy"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 07:18
It is not just Caterpillar that continues to post horrendous numbers, and has now recorded 38 consecutive months of declining Y/Y sales, double the length of the contraction of the great financial crisis. Moments ago heavy farm equipment maker Deere likewise shocked its investors with a round of terrible numbers, when at first it reported a revenue and EPS beat, announced it had earned $0.80 EPS in Q4, above the $0.71 estimate, on $5.53BN in revenue, well above the $4.90BN expected, however it was the unprecedented drop in the forecast that was the punchline.
These Activist Investors Have Been Crushed By The Oil Rout
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 08:13
Thirteen activist investors with the largest fund exposure to the energy sector have suffered a combined $9.2 billion in unrealized paper losses in 2015, according to quarterly filings analyzed by hedge fund data firm Symmetric.io. But nobody's combined loss is as big as that of Carl Icahn.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
por Fenix » Vie Feb 19, 2016 7:56 pm
WTI Crude Tumbles Back Below $30
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 08:31
As yesterday's DOE report - and later details from Genscape - hint at storage concerns becoming critical so overnight weakness in WTI crude is accelerating with the current front-month (March) which is set to roll, dropping back below $30, erasing the OPEC-Russia hype gains...
Fed Doves Cry As Core Consumer Prices Jump At Fastest Pace Since August 2011
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 08:40
This must be trasitory, right? Core Consumer Prices surged 0.3% MoM - the biggest jump since August 2011 - and is up 2.2% YoY (the most since June 2012). Furthermore, Shelter costs surged 3.7% YoY - the most since October 2008. We assume this will be ignored for a data-dependent Fed that needs to keep the easing dream alive (as long as stocks are off the highs)...
"Capitulation": Longest Streak Of Equity Outflows Since 2008; Biggest Gold Inflows Since 2010
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 09:16 -0500
The latest Lipper fund flow data is an and it is not pretty: in the latest week, there was $12.2 billion in equity outflows, the largest weekly redemption in 5 months...
... and more importantly, this represents 7 straight weeks of outflows: the longest streak since 2008.
Concurrent with the flight from US equities, we have seen the biggest European equity redemptions since October 14:
This was offset by an inverse 7 consecutive weeks of government bond inflows, with $1.69bn in fund deposits in the last week up from $0.98 billion, and explains who has been buying all those Treasurys that SWFs, EMs and China have been selling.
And the punchline: we just had the biggest 2-week gold inflow ($3.2bn) since May’10, which according to BofA is a "hedge against “risk-off” & “dollar-off”
Michael Hartnett's summary:
Equity outflows closer to “capitulation” levels: $53bn equity outflows past 7 weeks (0.8% of AUM) exceeds $36bn outflows during Aug’15 sell-off; approaching prior bear market levels of Aug’11 debt ceiling outflows ($90bn), '08 GFC outflows ($85bn) & '02 bear market outflows ($65bn); note BofAML Feb FMS also showed big reduction in equity exposure, albeit not yet to the UW position in equities that coincided with 2002/2009/2011 lows.
The only problem is that while this capitulation shoudl have led to buying at the 1812 bottom, the surge in stocks had nothing to do with bulls buying, and everything to do with shorts covering. And now that shorts have largely covered, even as buybacks continue, all those who have delevered and unwound position, have a choice: buy at ridiculously high valuations at a time when the S&P is facing 7 consecutive quarters of negative annual earnings... or wait for the market to once again crash before stepping in.
JPMorgan Head Quant Explains Why Most Hedge Funds Have Been Slammed In 2016
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 10:02
"YTD performance of equity long-short Hedge Funds was likely dragged down by their net long equity exposure and heavy exposure to popular growth and momentum stocks. As a result, the HFRXEH index performed in line with passive investors (S&P 500). The momentum selloff in the first week of February negatively impacted equity quants who are on average overweight momentum/low volatility factors"
Another Dead Cat Bounce (And They've Already Buried The Cat)
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 10:21
The Fed doesn’t see it coming and would be petrified by the prospect of a Wall Street hissy fit were it actually to express doubts about the sustainability of this so-called recovery. At the same time, Wall Street fails to recognize the obvious truth that the Fed is out of dry powder. If it attempts QE4, it will be a confession of total failure and lack of efficacy. If it actually seeks to launch negative interest rates, it will ignite a political firestorm of untold intensity. So both parties are unprepared for what is coming down the pike, and that makes this time truly different. There will be no massive liquidity injection and quick reflation of risk assets because even the Fed can’t push on a string when it is out of dry powder.
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Plunges Most Since 2012 To 1 Year Lows
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 10:07
"Get back to work, Mr.Draghi..."
Oil Plunges Into Red For The Week
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 10:51 -0500
Well that de-escalated quickly...
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 08:31
As yesterday's DOE report - and later details from Genscape - hint at storage concerns becoming critical so overnight weakness in WTI crude is accelerating with the current front-month (March) which is set to roll, dropping back below $30, erasing the OPEC-Russia hype gains...
Fed Doves Cry As Core Consumer Prices Jump At Fastest Pace Since August 2011
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 08:40
This must be trasitory, right? Core Consumer Prices surged 0.3% MoM - the biggest jump since August 2011 - and is up 2.2% YoY (the most since June 2012). Furthermore, Shelter costs surged 3.7% YoY - the most since October 2008. We assume this will be ignored for a data-dependent Fed that needs to keep the easing dream alive (as long as stocks are off the highs)...
"Capitulation": Longest Streak Of Equity Outflows Since 2008; Biggest Gold Inflows Since 2010
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 09:16 -0500
The latest Lipper fund flow data is an and it is not pretty: in the latest week, there was $12.2 billion in equity outflows, the largest weekly redemption in 5 months...
... and more importantly, this represents 7 straight weeks of outflows: the longest streak since 2008.
Concurrent with the flight from US equities, we have seen the biggest European equity redemptions since October 14:
This was offset by an inverse 7 consecutive weeks of government bond inflows, with $1.69bn in fund deposits in the last week up from $0.98 billion, and explains who has been buying all those Treasurys that SWFs, EMs and China have been selling.
And the punchline: we just had the biggest 2-week gold inflow ($3.2bn) since May’10, which according to BofA is a "hedge against “risk-off” & “dollar-off”
Michael Hartnett's summary:
Equity outflows closer to “capitulation” levels: $53bn equity outflows past 7 weeks (0.8% of AUM) exceeds $36bn outflows during Aug’15 sell-off; approaching prior bear market levels of Aug’11 debt ceiling outflows ($90bn), '08 GFC outflows ($85bn) & '02 bear market outflows ($65bn); note BofAML Feb FMS also showed big reduction in equity exposure, albeit not yet to the UW position in equities that coincided with 2002/2009/2011 lows.
The only problem is that while this capitulation shoudl have led to buying at the 1812 bottom, the surge in stocks had nothing to do with bulls buying, and everything to do with shorts covering. And now that shorts have largely covered, even as buybacks continue, all those who have delevered and unwound position, have a choice: buy at ridiculously high valuations at a time when the S&P is facing 7 consecutive quarters of negative annual earnings... or wait for the market to once again crash before stepping in.
JPMorgan Head Quant Explains Why Most Hedge Funds Have Been Slammed In 2016
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 10:02
"YTD performance of equity long-short Hedge Funds was likely dragged down by their net long equity exposure and heavy exposure to popular growth and momentum stocks. As a result, the HFRXEH index performed in line with passive investors (S&P 500). The momentum selloff in the first week of February negatively impacted equity quants who are on average overweight momentum/low volatility factors"
Another Dead Cat Bounce (And They've Already Buried The Cat)
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 10:21
The Fed doesn’t see it coming and would be petrified by the prospect of a Wall Street hissy fit were it actually to express doubts about the sustainability of this so-called recovery. At the same time, Wall Street fails to recognize the obvious truth that the Fed is out of dry powder. If it attempts QE4, it will be a confession of total failure and lack of efficacy. If it actually seeks to launch negative interest rates, it will ignite a political firestorm of untold intensity. So both parties are unprepared for what is coming down the pike, and that makes this time truly different. There will be no massive liquidity injection and quick reflation of risk assets because even the Fed can’t push on a string when it is out of dry powder.
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Plunges Most Since 2012 To 1 Year Lows
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 10:07
"Get back to work, Mr.Draghi..."
Oil Plunges Into Red For The Week
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 10:51 -0500
Well that de-escalated quickly...
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
por Fenix » Vie Feb 19, 2016 8:06 pm
China Stops Reporting Key Data Showing Size Of Its Capital Outflows
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 11:04
It appears that China has finally figured out this loophole to track the PBOC's attempts at masking the sheer size of its outflows, because as SCMP reported overnight, "sensitive data is missing from a regular central bank report in China" ... Financial analysts say the sudden lack of clear information makes it difficult for markets to assess the scale of capital flows out of China.
The Last 2 Times "Financial Stress" Was This Extreme, The Fed Unleashed QE
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 11:52
The Cleveland Fed Financial Stress Index has been rising all year and just broke out to what The Fed describes as a "significant stress" period. The last two times this level of financial instability was breaking out across US markets Bernanke unleashed QE1 (Q1 2009) and Operation Twist (Q1 2012). The question is - following a rate-hike just a few weeks ago - how quickly The Fed capitulates back to Bullard's call for QE...
"What The Hell Is Going On?"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 12:52 -0500
The last few days have been "odd" according to one veteran trader and today's moves, with USDJPY plunging, S&P 'steady', and XIV (the inverse VIX ETF soaring) left the same trader exclaiming "what the hell is going on?" More unwinds from equity market-neutral funds? OPEX impacts? Or just the death-throes of a Fed-fueled market gasping its last breaths...
The chaos in equity market-neutral funds continues with weak/strong momo stocks extremely volatile this week...
Carry trades being unwound in size as China bank liquidty stress hits again...
And bonds ain't buying it...
And finally - The VIX ETF complex is completely decoupled today...
In answer to the trader's rant - we don't know, but we suspect we know what happens next.
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 11:04
It appears that China has finally figured out this loophole to track the PBOC's attempts at masking the sheer size of its outflows, because as SCMP reported overnight, "sensitive data is missing from a regular central bank report in China" ... Financial analysts say the sudden lack of clear information makes it difficult for markets to assess the scale of capital flows out of China.
The Last 2 Times "Financial Stress" Was This Extreme, The Fed Unleashed QE
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 11:52
The Cleveland Fed Financial Stress Index has been rising all year and just broke out to what The Fed describes as a "significant stress" period. The last two times this level of financial instability was breaking out across US markets Bernanke unleashed QE1 (Q1 2009) and Operation Twist (Q1 2012). The question is - following a rate-hike just a few weeks ago - how quickly The Fed capitulates back to Bullard's call for QE...
"What The Hell Is Going On?"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 12:52 -0500
The last few days have been "odd" according to one veteran trader and today's moves, with USDJPY plunging, S&P 'steady', and XIV (the inverse VIX ETF soaring) left the same trader exclaiming "what the hell is going on?" More unwinds from equity market-neutral funds? OPEX impacts? Or just the death-throes of a Fed-fueled market gasping its last breaths...
The chaos in equity market-neutral funds continues with weak/strong momo stocks extremely volatile this week...
Carry trades being unwound in size as China bank liquidty stress hits again...
And bonds ain't buying it...
And finally - The VIX ETF complex is completely decoupled today...
In answer to the trader's rant - we don't know, but we suspect we know what happens next.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
por Fenix » Vie Feb 19, 2016 8:09 pm
Russia Demands End To Turkey's Efforts To Undermine Syrian Sovereignty
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 13:06
As Turkey ponders a Syrian ground invasion, Russia's foreign ministry is calling for a UN Security Council meeting to discuss the Sunni world's plans to invade on behalf of the anti-Assad rebellion.
US Oil Rig Count Collapses At Fastest Rate In A Year
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 13:11
Rig counts dropped for the 9th straight week but for the 3rd week in a row, US oil rig counts dropped heavily (down 26 this week after -28, and -31 in the last 2 weeks). The 85 rig drop is a 17% plunge over 3 weeks - the fastest pace since Feb 2015, and 2nd fastest since Feb 2009.
How The Fed's Strong Dollar Made Further Market Gains Impossible: JPM Explains
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 13:38 -0500
In recent months, much has been said about how as a result of the rising correlation between oil and equities (and pretty much all other asset classes), crude has been dragging down stocks, and alternatively unelashing furious short squeezes on even the tiniest pop in the price of oil.
But what about the impact of the strong dollar on the S&P 500?
We have some bad news for the bulls, courtesy of JPM's Kolanovic, who explains how the strong USD is now both a blessing and a curse for equities. But mostly a curse in that the market can't rally without a stronger dollar... and that it also needs a weaker dollar to rally.
S&P 500 and USD: In our previous report, we explained our view that the market may stop rewarding passive investors (who were winners in recent years). In that light, we are not excited about owning the S&P 500 as core exposure to risky assets. The S&P 500 is capitalization weighted, has high momentum bias, is internet heavy, and is implicitly long USD (when the USD is near historical highs). The current correlation of the S&P 500 to USD is ~30%. One of the reasons behind the positive correlation of the S&P 500 to USD is the high weight in Momentum and Low Volatility stocks in the index, and these stocks’ positive correlation to USD. At the same time, the index has low weight in Value stocks that are negatively correlated to USD (correlation of momentum, value and S&P 500 to USD are shown in Figure 1). When it comes to macro drivers of equities, the S&P 500 may be trapped by USD: it can’t rally to new highs without USD (momentum sectors, FANGs, etc.), and at the same time the strong USD is capping any significant upside due to its negative impact on EPS (via value segments such as multinationals and energy).
Summary: the market is now damned if the Fed hikes more, and damned if it doesn't.
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 13:06
As Turkey ponders a Syrian ground invasion, Russia's foreign ministry is calling for a UN Security Council meeting to discuss the Sunni world's plans to invade on behalf of the anti-Assad rebellion.
US Oil Rig Count Collapses At Fastest Rate In A Year
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 13:11
Rig counts dropped for the 9th straight week but for the 3rd week in a row, US oil rig counts dropped heavily (down 26 this week after -28, and -31 in the last 2 weeks). The 85 rig drop is a 17% plunge over 3 weeks - the fastest pace since Feb 2015, and 2nd fastest since Feb 2009.
How The Fed's Strong Dollar Made Further Market Gains Impossible: JPM Explains
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 13:38 -0500
In recent months, much has been said about how as a result of the rising correlation between oil and equities (and pretty much all other asset classes), crude has been dragging down stocks, and alternatively unelashing furious short squeezes on even the tiniest pop in the price of oil.
But what about the impact of the strong dollar on the S&P 500?
We have some bad news for the bulls, courtesy of JPM's Kolanovic, who explains how the strong USD is now both a blessing and a curse for equities. But mostly a curse in that the market can't rally without a stronger dollar... and that it also needs a weaker dollar to rally.
S&P 500 and USD: In our previous report, we explained our view that the market may stop rewarding passive investors (who were winners in recent years). In that light, we are not excited about owning the S&P 500 as core exposure to risky assets. The S&P 500 is capitalization weighted, has high momentum bias, is internet heavy, and is implicitly long USD (when the USD is near historical highs). The current correlation of the S&P 500 to USD is ~30%. One of the reasons behind the positive correlation of the S&P 500 to USD is the high weight in Momentum and Low Volatility stocks in the index, and these stocks’ positive correlation to USD. At the same time, the index has low weight in Value stocks that are negatively correlated to USD (correlation of momentum, value and S&P 500 to USD are shown in Figure 1). When it comes to macro drivers of equities, the S&P 500 may be trapped by USD: it can’t rally to new highs without USD (momentum sectors, FANGs, etc.), and at the same time the strong USD is capping any significant upside due to its negative impact on EPS (via value segments such as multinationals and energy).
Summary: the market is now damned if the Fed hikes more, and damned if it doesn't.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
por Fenix » Vie Feb 19, 2016 8:13 pm
Irony? "Credit Crash Warning" Icahn May Be Cut To Junk By S&P
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 13:47 -0500
Having warned - correctly - of the impending collapse of the US credit markets last year, it just seems ironic that Carl Icahn's firm has been downgraded to "watch negative" from stable by S&P, implying a cut to junk may be imminent. Just as we detailed earlier, activist investors have suffered greatly in the oil rout, and S&P cites declining investment values in the firm's portfolio, which have smashed the loan-to-value ratio up to 45% (a crucial threshold for the ratings agency).
Full S&P Statement: Icahn Enterprises L.P. 'BBB-' Ratings Placed On CreditWatch Negative On Declining Portfolio Values And Higher Leverage
Icahn Enterprises L.P.'s investment portfolio has lost a significant amount of value in the last several months.
* The firm's loan-to-value ratio has very likely increased above 45%.
As a result, we are putting our 'BBB-' issuer credit rating and 'BBB-' issue rating on the firm's senior unsecured debt on CreditWatch with negative implications.
We expect to resolve the CreditWatch listing within 90 days once we obtain more performance data and observe investment values over a longer period.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it placed its 'BBB-' issuer credit rating on Icahn Enterprises L.P. on CreditWatch with negative implications. We also placed our 'BBB-' issue rating on the company's senior unsecured debt on CreditWatch with negative implications.
"The CreditWatch action reflects declining investment values in the firm's portfolio that we believe have very likely led to the firm exceeding a 45% loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, which we previously cited as a key threshold for the rating," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Clayton Montgomery. Through Feb. 18, 2016, we estimate that the firm has lost at least $1.4 billion in value versus investment values as of Sept. 30, 2015. Although we only have good visibility on the firm's publicly traded majority holdings (since the hedge fund is hedged and can change exposures during the quarter and other holdings are private), we also believe that the hedge fund may have also lost value in the fourth quarter and so far in 2016 due to declining markets and the significant deterioration in commodity-related investments (including Chesapeake, Cheniere, and Freeport-McMoRan).
The firm's LTV ratio could benefit from the successful sale of Fontainebleau over the near to medium term. However, given the magnitude of the decline in the portfolio, this will likely not improve the company's LTV ratio to back below the 45% threshold. Furthermore, we believe that the firm may redeploy The firm's LTV ratio could benefit from the successful sale of Fontainebleau over the near to medium term. However, given the magnitude of the decline in the portfolio, this will likely not improve the company's LTV ratio to back below the 45% threshold. Furthermore, we believe that the firm may redeploy those proceeds back into investments, which would be less beneficial to the firm's LTV ratio than if management kept proceeds in cash. We net all of Icahn's cash against debt in our leverage calculation.
The firm has started to maintain less cash at the holding company than it has historically. Our historical assumption was that the firm would maintain over $500 million in cash based on statements made by management and the firm's behavior over time. As of Sept. 30, 2015, cash was only $182 million, down from $1.1 billion a year earlier. We believe that cash provides a very visible source of repayment for the firm's debt obligations, especially given the firm's relatively weak income stream that it receives from a few portfolio companies. Thus we view this deterioration negatively. Icahn's next debt maturity is $1.175 billion in senior unsecured notes due in January 2017, which we believe the company has the ability to repay if needed. However, at this point, we view it as more likely that the firm will refinance this maturity.
We believe it is possible that Carl Icahn, the majority shareholder of IEP and Chairman of the Board, could support the company's capitalization at some point in the future through an equity raise. We don't include the assumption of support in the rating, but nonetheless it is a possibility that could improve the firm's leverage ratio and creditworthiness. As of Sept. 30, 2015, Mr. Icahn owned 88.8% of Icahn units. We would view an equity offering positively since it would result in deleveraging, but portfolio deterioration may still outweigh the benefit of this action, if it were to occur.
* * *
IEP's bonds have lifted in the last few days off record lows... but we suspect this move may nudge them lower... given this statement from S&P:
we also believe that the hedge fund may have also lost value in the fourth quarter and so far in 2016 due to declining markets and the significant deterioration in commodity-related investments (including Chesapeake, Cheniere, and Freeport-McMoRan).
We will see...
A Guaranteed Way To Make Money: Short Goldman's "Hedge Fund VIP" ETF
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 14:15
With 5 of their Top 6 trades for 2016 already stopped out, and their recent heavy losses from swing-trading Gold, one might question the demand for an ETF that tracks Goldman Sachs' hedge fund research tips... but, as Bloomberg reports, David Kostin's "Hedge Fund Trend Monitor" report - tracking the 50 companies that matter most to hedge funds - is about to be launched.
Sam Zell:"We Are Already In Recession"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 14:50 -0500
"We are either already in a recession or rapidly moving towards one," warns billionaire investors Sam Zell. A stunned Maria Bartiromo is shocked to hear from Zell that world trade has slowed dramatically and currency wars and election uncertainties have contributed to this. Most shocking of all to the Keynesian pump-primers (and oil bulls) is Zell's remarks that "when I look around the world for prospective demand, it's not there... demand is pretty weak." Markets are not pricing in recession and Zell warns, even with recent declines that "this is pretty frothy" thanks to easy money and he is a seller not a buyer.
Zell warns - "The Fed is out of tools [to save the markets].. and that is going to make this more problematic."
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 13:47 -0500
Having warned - correctly - of the impending collapse of the US credit markets last year, it just seems ironic that Carl Icahn's firm has been downgraded to "watch negative" from stable by S&P, implying a cut to junk may be imminent. Just as we detailed earlier, activist investors have suffered greatly in the oil rout, and S&P cites declining investment values in the firm's portfolio, which have smashed the loan-to-value ratio up to 45% (a crucial threshold for the ratings agency).
Full S&P Statement: Icahn Enterprises L.P. 'BBB-' Ratings Placed On CreditWatch Negative On Declining Portfolio Values And Higher Leverage
Icahn Enterprises L.P.'s investment portfolio has lost a significant amount of value in the last several months.
* The firm's loan-to-value ratio has very likely increased above 45%.
As a result, we are putting our 'BBB-' issuer credit rating and 'BBB-' issue rating on the firm's senior unsecured debt on CreditWatch with negative implications.
We expect to resolve the CreditWatch listing within 90 days once we obtain more performance data and observe investment values over a longer period.
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it placed its 'BBB-' issuer credit rating on Icahn Enterprises L.P. on CreditWatch with negative implications. We also placed our 'BBB-' issue rating on the company's senior unsecured debt on CreditWatch with negative implications.
"The CreditWatch action reflects declining investment values in the firm's portfolio that we believe have very likely led to the firm exceeding a 45% loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, which we previously cited as a key threshold for the rating," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Clayton Montgomery. Through Feb. 18, 2016, we estimate that the firm has lost at least $1.4 billion in value versus investment values as of Sept. 30, 2015. Although we only have good visibility on the firm's publicly traded majority holdings (since the hedge fund is hedged and can change exposures during the quarter and other holdings are private), we also believe that the hedge fund may have also lost value in the fourth quarter and so far in 2016 due to declining markets and the significant deterioration in commodity-related investments (including Chesapeake, Cheniere, and Freeport-McMoRan).
The firm's LTV ratio could benefit from the successful sale of Fontainebleau over the near to medium term. However, given the magnitude of the decline in the portfolio, this will likely not improve the company's LTV ratio to back below the 45% threshold. Furthermore, we believe that the firm may redeploy The firm's LTV ratio could benefit from the successful sale of Fontainebleau over the near to medium term. However, given the magnitude of the decline in the portfolio, this will likely not improve the company's LTV ratio to back below the 45% threshold. Furthermore, we believe that the firm may redeploy those proceeds back into investments, which would be less beneficial to the firm's LTV ratio than if management kept proceeds in cash. We net all of Icahn's cash against debt in our leverage calculation.
The firm has started to maintain less cash at the holding company than it has historically. Our historical assumption was that the firm would maintain over $500 million in cash based on statements made by management and the firm's behavior over time. As of Sept. 30, 2015, cash was only $182 million, down from $1.1 billion a year earlier. We believe that cash provides a very visible source of repayment for the firm's debt obligations, especially given the firm's relatively weak income stream that it receives from a few portfolio companies. Thus we view this deterioration negatively. Icahn's next debt maturity is $1.175 billion in senior unsecured notes due in January 2017, which we believe the company has the ability to repay if needed. However, at this point, we view it as more likely that the firm will refinance this maturity.
We believe it is possible that Carl Icahn, the majority shareholder of IEP and Chairman of the Board, could support the company's capitalization at some point in the future through an equity raise. We don't include the assumption of support in the rating, but nonetheless it is a possibility that could improve the firm's leverage ratio and creditworthiness. As of Sept. 30, 2015, Mr. Icahn owned 88.8% of Icahn units. We would view an equity offering positively since it would result in deleveraging, but portfolio deterioration may still outweigh the benefit of this action, if it were to occur.
* * *
IEP's bonds have lifted in the last few days off record lows... but we suspect this move may nudge them lower... given this statement from S&P:
we also believe that the hedge fund may have also lost value in the fourth quarter and so far in 2016 due to declining markets and the significant deterioration in commodity-related investments (including Chesapeake, Cheniere, and Freeport-McMoRan).
We will see...
A Guaranteed Way To Make Money: Short Goldman's "Hedge Fund VIP" ETF
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 14:15
With 5 of their Top 6 trades for 2016 already stopped out, and their recent heavy losses from swing-trading Gold, one might question the demand for an ETF that tracks Goldman Sachs' hedge fund research tips... but, as Bloomberg reports, David Kostin's "Hedge Fund Trend Monitor" report - tracking the 50 companies that matter most to hedge funds - is about to be launched.
Sam Zell:"We Are Already In Recession"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 14:50 -0500
"We are either already in a recession or rapidly moving towards one," warns billionaire investors Sam Zell. A stunned Maria Bartiromo is shocked to hear from Zell that world trade has slowed dramatically and currency wars and election uncertainties have contributed to this. Most shocking of all to the Keynesian pump-primers (and oil bulls) is Zell's remarks that "when I look around the world for prospective demand, it's not there... demand is pretty weak." Markets are not pricing in recession and Zell warns, even with recent declines that "this is pretty frothy" thanks to easy money and he is a seller not a buyer.
Zell warns - "The Fed is out of tools [to save the markets].. and that is going to make this more problematic."
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
por Fenix » Vie Feb 19, 2016 8:17 pm
Bank of America: "Corporate Balance Sheets Are The Most Unhealthy They Have Ever Been"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 15:14
"...in a world where corporate balance sheets are arguably the most unhealthy they have ever been (all-time high leverage in HG and HY) where companies have relied on cheap debt to fund a growth through acquisition strategy, what happens if funding is either unavailable or too expensive to make a growth through acquisition strategy make sense? Same goes for buybacks and special dividends?"
Weekend Reading: The Bull Is Back?
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 16:35
That didn’t take much. After a three-day rally, the media is back into “bullish” mode suggesting the bottom is likely in and by the end of this year, it’s all going to be just fine. Unfortunately, history suggests that after such a long unabated expansion risks are substantially higher than it has been previously. Furthermore, as I have repeated often in these missives, in an economy that is driven primarily based on consumption, and such consumption is already weak, it doesn’t take much to “flip the switch.”
Gold Is The "Shining Bright Spot" In The Commodity Complex
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 18:20 -0500
Gold is many things to many people. A perennial battleground subject, gold remains arguably one of the most debated asset classes across global financial markets, but as Goldman's precious metals equity analyst notes, from a fundamental perspective, the risk/reward looks more balanced than that of its bulk and base metal peers, especially in terms of the supply/demand dynamics.
Bulls believe gold is the ultimate store of wealth, and should be compulsory in a welldiversified portfolio given its perceived safe-haven appeal.
In contrast, bears are quick to highlight the lack of industrial use for this non-yielding asset and focus on the fact there is an abundance of above-ground inventory.
Love it or hate it, gold will always be relevant and mentioned in the same sentence as oil when market participants refer to the all-important commodities complex.
Gold is probably the pick of a bad bunch from a future investment standpoint.
Macro trumps micro
Gold is the chameleon of commodities, but ultimately it is primarily used as a financial asset by investors as a store of wealth, a hedge against the threat of inflation, and in some instances, as portfolio insurance. Historically, one of the strongest relationships is the inverse relationship between the gold price and US real interest rates; higher TIPS, lower gold prices, mainly owing to the fact that gold is a non-yielding asset and as such the opportunity cost will increase for investors holding gold as rates increase.
As can be seen from the chart below, the relationship between US 5-year TIPS and gold has been very strong, returning an R-squared of 0.85. In 2016, our economists expect above-trend US economic growth and a corresponding recovery in US inflation expectations.
As we gingerly move through 2016, and the market recalibrates its expectations for the imminent Fed rate hiking cycle, the gold price could be an interesting sideshow and alternative store of value for investors, if the currently anticipated timetable is pushed out.
One of the reasons for the drawn out correction in gold prices in 2013 was the partial liquidation of ETFs.
Above, we show that the number of ounces of gold in ETFs has stabilised in the past 12 months, and in fact, has ticked upwards in 2016.
Saving lustre
While a US market correction is not our base case, below we identify the major risk-off periods over the past 45 years, and investigate whether gold acted as effective short-term portfolio insurance. We observe that for nine of the last 10 major downturns in US equity markets, gold outperformed the S&P with 1980-82 the only exception (the gold bubble burst in 1980). Moreover, gold generated positive returns in eight of those instances.
Chindia
In 2014, the world’s two most populous nations accounted for over 50% of total gold demand. Citizens and the governments of these two countries play pivotal roles in the global gold market from both a supply and demand perspective. China is now the largest gold producing nation, more than doubling its output over the past decade to 450t. To put this in perspective, China was listed as #4 in 2005. In India, gold has always been a symbol of wealth, status, and a fundamental part of many rituals. In 2013, the government tried to introduce policies to reduce its current account deficit that included curbing gold imports, but these policies ultimately increased smuggling. While the 80:20 gold import rule was scrapped in November 2014, the 10% import duty on all gold imports is still in place.
Miner miner 49er
The fundamental difference between gold and other commodities is that once extracted, it is generally not consumed. It remains in existence in a form (jewelry, art, coins, bars) that is easily recoverable and is periodically returned to the market through recycling. Owing to this, gold’s above-ground stock is always rising. Mine output accounts for about c.75% of total annual supply. A labour-intensive and costly activity with long lead times, mine production is relatively inelastic to prices in the short run. In 1Q15, mine supply increased by 1% yoy to 734t while in 2014, global gold production increased by 5% yoy.
Mine supply rose significantly during gold’s bull run in 2003-11, when prices rose 450% and new mines ramped up to full capacity following significant investments in new projects. However, with gold prices falling dramatically (by 42% since September, 2011), miners have been forced to delay/suspend new projects as they seek to increase operational efficiencies and cut growth capex. Consequently, reducing operating costs to optimise free cash flow has been a major focus for the gold companies.
While closures and suspensions have been limited to small and ageing operations, there have been deferrals of major development-stage projects as part of the drive to reduce unnecessary capital expenditure. Most activities are centered on the divestment of non-core operations. Miners have taken steps to enable their survival through the current squeeze of their margins, and it seems that the consequences of these actions will be detrimental to mine supply levels in future years.
The pain that the broader mining industry experienced in 2015 was endured by the gold sector in 2013/14. After the gold price fell 25% in the first six months of 2013, the gold companies were forced in to action to conserve cash. Dividends were cut, capex was significantly pared back, non-core assets were sold and balance sheets slowly improved. The aggressive action from gold companies resulted in a sector that is able to survive and generate cash at a US$1,000/oz gold price.
The need to conserve cash in the face of sustained lower commodity prices is a situation we believe that the broader mining complex is slowly coming to terms with. As the chart below indicates, the gold sector has been more decisive in addressing the issues.
Global miners are all facing their problems (BHP: dividend and Samarco; Glencore: debt; Anglo: debt & restructuring; Chinese producers: high debt) and these are likely to drag on performance in 2016. Buy-rated Barrick Gold (US$12.25) and AngloGold Ashanti (R172) have ‘cleared the decks’ on the cash conservation front and are well positioned to perform in 2016. They are cash flow positive at respective gold prices of US$890/850 per oz. FCF yields are strong and we believe the gold miners provide more stable mining opportunities relative to their large cap non-gold peers.
The need to conserve cash in the face of sustained lower commodity prices is a situation we believe that the broader mining complex is slowly coming to terms with. As the chart above indicates, the gold sector has been more decisive in addressing the issues.
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 15:14
"...in a world where corporate balance sheets are arguably the most unhealthy they have ever been (all-time high leverage in HG and HY) where companies have relied on cheap debt to fund a growth through acquisition strategy, what happens if funding is either unavailable or too expensive to make a growth through acquisition strategy make sense? Same goes for buybacks and special dividends?"
Weekend Reading: The Bull Is Back?
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 - 16:35
That didn’t take much. After a three-day rally, the media is back into “bullish” mode suggesting the bottom is likely in and by the end of this year, it’s all going to be just fine. Unfortunately, history suggests that after such a long unabated expansion risks are substantially higher than it has been previously. Furthermore, as I have repeated often in these missives, in an economy that is driven primarily based on consumption, and such consumption is already weak, it doesn’t take much to “flip the switch.”
Gold Is The "Shining Bright Spot" In The Commodity Complex
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/19/2016 18:20 -0500
Gold is many things to many people. A perennial battleground subject, gold remains arguably one of the most debated asset classes across global financial markets, but as Goldman's precious metals equity analyst notes, from a fundamental perspective, the risk/reward looks more balanced than that of its bulk and base metal peers, especially in terms of the supply/demand dynamics.
Bulls believe gold is the ultimate store of wealth, and should be compulsory in a welldiversified portfolio given its perceived safe-haven appeal.
In contrast, bears are quick to highlight the lack of industrial use for this non-yielding asset and focus on the fact there is an abundance of above-ground inventory.
Love it or hate it, gold will always be relevant and mentioned in the same sentence as oil when market participants refer to the all-important commodities complex.
Gold is probably the pick of a bad bunch from a future investment standpoint.
Macro trumps micro
Gold is the chameleon of commodities, but ultimately it is primarily used as a financial asset by investors as a store of wealth, a hedge against the threat of inflation, and in some instances, as portfolio insurance. Historically, one of the strongest relationships is the inverse relationship between the gold price and US real interest rates; higher TIPS, lower gold prices, mainly owing to the fact that gold is a non-yielding asset and as such the opportunity cost will increase for investors holding gold as rates increase.
As can be seen from the chart below, the relationship between US 5-year TIPS and gold has been very strong, returning an R-squared of 0.85. In 2016, our economists expect above-trend US economic growth and a corresponding recovery in US inflation expectations.
As we gingerly move through 2016, and the market recalibrates its expectations for the imminent Fed rate hiking cycle, the gold price could be an interesting sideshow and alternative store of value for investors, if the currently anticipated timetable is pushed out.
One of the reasons for the drawn out correction in gold prices in 2013 was the partial liquidation of ETFs.
Above, we show that the number of ounces of gold in ETFs has stabilised in the past 12 months, and in fact, has ticked upwards in 2016.
Saving lustre
While a US market correction is not our base case, below we identify the major risk-off periods over the past 45 years, and investigate whether gold acted as effective short-term portfolio insurance. We observe that for nine of the last 10 major downturns in US equity markets, gold outperformed the S&P with 1980-82 the only exception (the gold bubble burst in 1980). Moreover, gold generated positive returns in eight of those instances.
Chindia
In 2014, the world’s two most populous nations accounted for over 50% of total gold demand. Citizens and the governments of these two countries play pivotal roles in the global gold market from both a supply and demand perspective. China is now the largest gold producing nation, more than doubling its output over the past decade to 450t. To put this in perspective, China was listed as #4 in 2005. In India, gold has always been a symbol of wealth, status, and a fundamental part of many rituals. In 2013, the government tried to introduce policies to reduce its current account deficit that included curbing gold imports, but these policies ultimately increased smuggling. While the 80:20 gold import rule was scrapped in November 2014, the 10% import duty on all gold imports is still in place.
Miner miner 49er
The fundamental difference between gold and other commodities is that once extracted, it is generally not consumed. It remains in existence in a form (jewelry, art, coins, bars) that is easily recoverable and is periodically returned to the market through recycling. Owing to this, gold’s above-ground stock is always rising. Mine output accounts for about c.75% of total annual supply. A labour-intensive and costly activity with long lead times, mine production is relatively inelastic to prices in the short run. In 1Q15, mine supply increased by 1% yoy to 734t while in 2014, global gold production increased by 5% yoy.
Mine supply rose significantly during gold’s bull run in 2003-11, when prices rose 450% and new mines ramped up to full capacity following significant investments in new projects. However, with gold prices falling dramatically (by 42% since September, 2011), miners have been forced to delay/suspend new projects as they seek to increase operational efficiencies and cut growth capex. Consequently, reducing operating costs to optimise free cash flow has been a major focus for the gold companies.
While closures and suspensions have been limited to small and ageing operations, there have been deferrals of major development-stage projects as part of the drive to reduce unnecessary capital expenditure. Most activities are centered on the divestment of non-core operations. Miners have taken steps to enable their survival through the current squeeze of their margins, and it seems that the consequences of these actions will be detrimental to mine supply levels in future years.
The pain that the broader mining industry experienced in 2015 was endured by the gold sector in 2013/14. After the gold price fell 25% in the first six months of 2013, the gold companies were forced in to action to conserve cash. Dividends were cut, capex was significantly pared back, non-core assets were sold and balance sheets slowly improved. The aggressive action from gold companies resulted in a sector that is able to survive and generate cash at a US$1,000/oz gold price.
The need to conserve cash in the face of sustained lower commodity prices is a situation we believe that the broader mining complex is slowly coming to terms with. As the chart below indicates, the gold sector has been more decisive in addressing the issues.
Global miners are all facing their problems (BHP: dividend and Samarco; Glencore: debt; Anglo: debt & restructuring; Chinese producers: high debt) and these are likely to drag on performance in 2016. Buy-rated Barrick Gold (US$12.25) and AngloGold Ashanti (R172) have ‘cleared the decks’ on the cash conservation front and are well positioned to perform in 2016. They are cash flow positive at respective gold prices of US$890/850 per oz. FCF yields are strong and we believe the gold miners provide more stable mining opportunities relative to their large cap non-gold peers.
The need to conserve cash in the face of sustained lower commodity prices is a situation we believe that the broader mining complex is slowly coming to terms with. As the chart above indicates, the gold sector has been more decisive in addressing the issues.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
por Fenix » Vie Feb 19, 2016 8:22 pm
The Illegitimacy of Comex Pricing
02/19/2016 05:58 -0500
The Illegitimacy of Comex Pricing
Posted with permission and written by Craig Hemke, TF Metals Report & Sprott Money correspondent
We've known for years that the Comex derivative pricing scheme was a fraud, where market-making Bullion Banks create unlimited amounts of paper gold in order to soak up speculator demand. Then these same banks shuffle warrants and warehouse receipts back and forth to create the illusion of physical delivery. But now, even the price "discovered" electronically on this exchange has become completely useless.
Look, I recognize that we've plowed this ground so many times already that you probably think that we've run out of things to write about. Let me assure you that that's not the case and that there is a serious purpose behind this post. First, though, please be sure to review some of the work we've done in the past on the subject of Comex illegitimacy. First, here's an article on the inherent unfairness of the ability of The Banks to simply create new derivative contracts from thin air whenever speculator demand for paper gold increases:
And we've recently spent considerable time documenting the fraud of Comex "delivery". Here are two links that summarize and detail the problem:
This circular charade of delivery continues in February. Recall that back in December, the proprietary (House) account of JP Morgan stopped or took delivery of 2,021 of the total 2,073 gold contracts that were allegedly settled. The primary issuers of this gold were the House Account of HSBC at 818 contracts and the House Account of Scotia at 699.
And what has taken place so far in February? The House Account of HSBC has stopped or taken delivery of 1,181 contracts while the House Account of JPM has issued 651 back out? Do you see how this works?
So, we've established that:
1. The Comex, by design, is inherently unfair as the market-making Bullion Banks have the unfettered ability to issue as many paper derivative contracts as "the market" desires whenever there is speculator demand.
2. The Comex can only claim legitimacy in discovering price if there is actual physical delivery made at said "discovered" price. However, there is no physical delivery at Comex. Instead, it's just a bi-monthly circle jerk where Banks make and take delivery on a rotating basis. Therefore, the only price discovered is the price of a Comex contract, NOT the price of gold.
The object of this post is to draw your attention to the third spoke of Comex illegitimacy...the price itself.
Much has been written over the past three weeks about the "renewed bull market in gold". Price began the year at $1061 per ounce and it reached an intraday high of $1263 last Thursday. That's a 19% move in six weeks and certainly something that all of us in the gold community should be excited about. However, since this price has been found in large part through trading on the Comex and other electronic exchanges, is this really the price of gold?
Yes, there are physical exchanges of metal that have been made all over the planet based upon this Comex price. Right now, you can visit any of our site's sponsors, affiliates and advertisers and they'll gladly sell you an ounce of gold at the current Comex price plus a small premium. But, again, is the price discovered on Comex really a price of gold, itself? The point of this post is to contend that it's not.
Here's just a sample of a few headlines this morning. Gold has fallen back to near $1200 and, as you can see, there's much hand-wringing regarding what may happen next:
The financial media, financial analysts and brokers will all tell you that the Comex derivative price of goldreally is a proxy for actual, physical gold. The news articles all reference this price and contend, to varying degrees, that this price is influenced by:
* "Investors" seeking the safe haven of gold
* Traders sensing the growing momentum of the trade
* Hedge funds buying or selling based upon technical factors
Media, analysts and brokers all watch the "price" rise and fall and reach conclusions regarding the overall market and where it's seemingly headed. "Is this a bull market or a bull trap?", for example.
But what if I could show you that the price discovered on the Comex and other derivative exchanges isn't influenced by "investors" at all? What if, instead, this "price" was simply determined by the whims of the HFT computers...machines that take their trading cues from signals completely unrelated to the fundamentals of gold, itself? And what is the single most important trading cue for the HFT algos? Changes to the relationship between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen, commonly referred to as the trading pair USDJPY.
Well, we've written about this before, too. We first noticed this phenomenon back in September of 2014. Here's just one example of what we wrote back then:
Our friend, Paul Mylchreest, noticed the same correlations and he added this terrific piece in December of 2014: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6425 ... mylchreest
And it is this correlation that has driven the "price" of gold higher in 2016, nothing else. Oh sure, it's nice to hear anecdotal stories about increased physical demand and "lines around the block", but those fundamental factors have had little to no effect on "price". Instead, it's all about the rapidly increasing value of the yen or, expressed inversely, the rapidly declining value of the USDJPY.
Below is a chart of the past two months of trading action. In candles, you see the value of the yen versus the dollar. In bars, you have the "price of gold":
But let's zero in a little bit and look even closer...
Last Thursday, gold shot higher by over 5% in a move that left many analysts claiming that "the paper markets were breaking" and that "a new paradigm for gold was beginning". But was this the case or was the "price of gold" simply reacting to an historic, 10% move in the USDJPY that culminated with an early Thursday plunge all the way to 111, down from 121 just two weeks ago? Below is a chart of the five days Tuesday the 9th through yesterday, Tuesday the 16th. Again, the yen is in candles and gold is in bars:
So, did the "price of gold" move based upon fundamentals, physical demand and the emergence of a new bull market?
OR
Did the "price of gold" simply adjust based upon the whims of High Frequency Trading computers, which "saw" the rapid rise in the relative value of the yen and bought "gold" according to their pre-programmed algorithms?
Obviously, the answer is the latter and it is extremely important that you understand this significance of this. Why? Because the dollar-based "price of gold" has been largely determined by this sole factor for nearly 3.5 years now. See the next chart, again with yen in candles and gold in bars:
The chart above explains the charts below. Why has gold moved counter-intuitively since the onset of QE3 in October of 2012? How was the long-standing relationship between US debt, the Fed balance sheet and the price of gold severed? The answer lies in the total market domination of High Frequency Trading as well as the willing participation of The Bullion Banks to cap all rallies in order to maintain downward momentum.
In the end, what does all this mean? Simply put, the "price" discovered via electronic trading on the Comex and the Globex is NOT a reflection of the price of gold at all. Instead, it's primarily just a reaction of HFT computers to changes in the USDJPY. There's no new "bull market" based upon "investors seeking the safety and certainty of physical gold". Instead, any new bull market in the paper derivative price will simply be a reflection of the continued rally in the value of the yen versus the dollar. That's it and that is all.
What's fun is that the Bullion Banks have unwittingly sewn the seeds of their demise through their participation in this scheme. This uneconomically discovered price is being used by the Chinese, the Russian, the Indians and wise investors globally to drain The System of its remaining physical gold. Soon, the stockpiles of The West will be liquidated and, once no more physical gold remains, this entire fractional reserve pricing scheme will collapse under its own weight. When might this happen? It's impossible to say however, as this great article from Koos Jansen points out, the West's finite supplies are indeed dwindling:https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/london-was-bleeding-184t-of-gold-in-december-3rd-highest-ever-while-china-imported-at-least-217t-highest-ever/
So, what do you do with this information? Well, first of all, you don't get caught up in the hype. Now that you know what really affects "price", you should be able to control your emotions both on upticks and downswings. Additionally, here at TFMR, we do quite well at recognizing inflection points and trends in gold and the USDJPY. Forewarned is forearmed, they say, and subscribers to The Vault use this knowledge to their advantage. But most importantly, recognize this:
The "price of gold" as reported by the media and repeated by analysts and pundits everywhere is no more proxy for the actual intrinsic value of gold than is virtual reality a proxy for real life. You're told that it's real and it may look real but it's not. Not by a longshot. In the end, your best strategy is to mimic the Chinese, Russians and Indians. Recognize the value inherent in the fraudulently-determined "price" and act accordingly by continually converting your paper currency reserves into sound money...while you still can.
The Illegitimacy of Comex Pricing
Posted with permission and written by Craig Hemke, TF Metals Report & Sprott Money correspondent
Experts: Invasion of Syria Could Lead to Nuclear War
Submitted by George W.
02/19/2016 12:26 -0500
Turkey previously shot down a Russian jet.
Now, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are threatening to invade Syria.
How dangerous could this get, in a worst case scenario?
Robert Parry – the investigative reporter who broke the Iran-Contra story for the Associated Press and Newsweek – wrote yesterday:
A source close to Russian President Vladimir Putin told me that the Russians have warned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Moscow is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons if necessary to save their troops in the face of a Turkish-Saudi onslaught. Since Turkey is a member of NATO, any such conflict could quickly escalate into a full-scale nuclear confrontation.
Washington’s Blog asked one of America’s top experts on Russia – Stephen Cohen, professor emeritus of Russian studies and politics at New York University and Princeton University, and the author of a number of books on Russia and the Soviet Union – what he thought of Parry’s claim.
Cohen said:
Parry is a serious man [“serious” is the highest compliment that an insider can give to someone]. I cannot say it will lead to nuke war, but it is very dangerous, as is quadrupling US/NATO forces near Russia’s borders.
Pavel Felgenhauer – a leading Russian military analyst – also believes that a nuclear war is “very likely” to arise from Russia’s skirmishes with Turkey in Syria.
Last December, U.S. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard – a Member of the House Armed Services Committee, Iraq war veteran, and Major in the Hawaii Army National Guard – warned that U.S. policy in Syria could lead to a nuclear war. And see this.
Also in December, retired Lieutenant General Robert Gard, chairman emeritus of the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, retired Brigadier General John H. Johns, professor emeritus from US National Defense University, and Leslie Gelb, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, penned an article in Foreign Policy calling for US-Russia cooperation to de-escalate current tensions and diffuse the increasing worrisome nuclear blustering.
American security expert Bruce Blair – a former nuclear-missile launch officer – notes that Turkey’s downing of the Russian warplane at the Syrian-Turkish border “fits a pattern of brinkmanship and inadvertence that is raising tensions and distrust between Russia and US-led NATO,” and that “this escalation could morph by design or inadvertence into a nuclear threat.”
Blair writes that the threat of nuclear war is higher now that during the Soviet era:
Russia has shortened the launch time from what it was during the Cold War. Today, top military command posts in the Moscow area can bypass the entire human chain of command and directly fire by remote control rockets in silos and on trucks as far away as Siberia in only 20 seconds.
Why should this concern us? History shows that crisis interactions, once triggered, take on a life of their own. Military encounters multiply; they become more decentralized, spontaneous and intense. Safeguards are loosened and unfamiliar operational environments cause accidents and unauthorized actions. Miscalculations, misinterpretations and loss of control create a fog of crisis out of which a fog of war may emerge. In short, the slope between the low-level military encounters, the outbreak of crisis and escalation to a nuclear dimension is a steep and slippery one.
(Indeed, the U.S. and Soviets came within seconds of all-out nuclear war on numerous occasions. And only the courage of U.S. and Soviet individuals to say no when their superiors told them to fire nuclear weapons – in the face of mistaken readings – saved the planet from nuclear war.)
Russia expert Stephen Cohen agrees that the risks of nuclear war are much higher than people know, telling the Commonwealth Club last year that the threat of nuclear war with Russia is now greater than it was with the Soviets.
Former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry agrees that the risk of nuclear war is higher than during the Soviet era.
Postscript: Top Russian, American and Polish experts also warn that continued fighting in Ukraine could lead to nuclear war.
02/19/2016 05:58 -0500
The Illegitimacy of Comex Pricing
Posted with permission and written by Craig Hemke, TF Metals Report & Sprott Money correspondent
We've known for years that the Comex derivative pricing scheme was a fraud, where market-making Bullion Banks create unlimited amounts of paper gold in order to soak up speculator demand. Then these same banks shuffle warrants and warehouse receipts back and forth to create the illusion of physical delivery. But now, even the price "discovered" electronically on this exchange has become completely useless.
Look, I recognize that we've plowed this ground so many times already that you probably think that we've run out of things to write about. Let me assure you that that's not the case and that there is a serious purpose behind this post. First, though, please be sure to review some of the work we've done in the past on the subject of Comex illegitimacy. First, here's an article on the inherent unfairness of the ability of The Banks to simply create new derivative contracts from thin air whenever speculator demand for paper gold increases:
And we've recently spent considerable time documenting the fraud of Comex "delivery". Here are two links that summarize and detail the problem:
This circular charade of delivery continues in February. Recall that back in December, the proprietary (House) account of JP Morgan stopped or took delivery of 2,021 of the total 2,073 gold contracts that were allegedly settled. The primary issuers of this gold were the House Account of HSBC at 818 contracts and the House Account of Scotia at 699.
And what has taken place so far in February? The House Account of HSBC has stopped or taken delivery of 1,181 contracts while the House Account of JPM has issued 651 back out? Do you see how this works?
So, we've established that:
1. The Comex, by design, is inherently unfair as the market-making Bullion Banks have the unfettered ability to issue as many paper derivative contracts as "the market" desires whenever there is speculator demand.
2. The Comex can only claim legitimacy in discovering price if there is actual physical delivery made at said "discovered" price. However, there is no physical delivery at Comex. Instead, it's just a bi-monthly circle jerk where Banks make and take delivery on a rotating basis. Therefore, the only price discovered is the price of a Comex contract, NOT the price of gold.
The object of this post is to draw your attention to the third spoke of Comex illegitimacy...the price itself.
Much has been written over the past three weeks about the "renewed bull market in gold". Price began the year at $1061 per ounce and it reached an intraday high of $1263 last Thursday. That's a 19% move in six weeks and certainly something that all of us in the gold community should be excited about. However, since this price has been found in large part through trading on the Comex and other electronic exchanges, is this really the price of gold?
Yes, there are physical exchanges of metal that have been made all over the planet based upon this Comex price. Right now, you can visit any of our site's sponsors, affiliates and advertisers and they'll gladly sell you an ounce of gold at the current Comex price plus a small premium. But, again, is the price discovered on Comex really a price of gold, itself? The point of this post is to contend that it's not.
Here's just a sample of a few headlines this morning. Gold has fallen back to near $1200 and, as you can see, there's much hand-wringing regarding what may happen next:
The financial media, financial analysts and brokers will all tell you that the Comex derivative price of goldreally is a proxy for actual, physical gold. The news articles all reference this price and contend, to varying degrees, that this price is influenced by:
* "Investors" seeking the safe haven of gold
* Traders sensing the growing momentum of the trade
* Hedge funds buying or selling based upon technical factors
Media, analysts and brokers all watch the "price" rise and fall and reach conclusions regarding the overall market and where it's seemingly headed. "Is this a bull market or a bull trap?", for example.
But what if I could show you that the price discovered on the Comex and other derivative exchanges isn't influenced by "investors" at all? What if, instead, this "price" was simply determined by the whims of the HFT computers...machines that take their trading cues from signals completely unrelated to the fundamentals of gold, itself? And what is the single most important trading cue for the HFT algos? Changes to the relationship between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen, commonly referred to as the trading pair USDJPY.
Well, we've written about this before, too. We first noticed this phenomenon back in September of 2014. Here's just one example of what we wrote back then:
Our friend, Paul Mylchreest, noticed the same correlations and he added this terrific piece in December of 2014: http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6425 ... mylchreest
And it is this correlation that has driven the "price" of gold higher in 2016, nothing else. Oh sure, it's nice to hear anecdotal stories about increased physical demand and "lines around the block", but those fundamental factors have had little to no effect on "price". Instead, it's all about the rapidly increasing value of the yen or, expressed inversely, the rapidly declining value of the USDJPY.
Below is a chart of the past two months of trading action. In candles, you see the value of the yen versus the dollar. In bars, you have the "price of gold":
But let's zero in a little bit and look even closer...
Last Thursday, gold shot higher by over 5% in a move that left many analysts claiming that "the paper markets were breaking" and that "a new paradigm for gold was beginning". But was this the case or was the "price of gold" simply reacting to an historic, 10% move in the USDJPY that culminated with an early Thursday plunge all the way to 111, down from 121 just two weeks ago? Below is a chart of the five days Tuesday the 9th through yesterday, Tuesday the 16th. Again, the yen is in candles and gold is in bars:
So, did the "price of gold" move based upon fundamentals, physical demand and the emergence of a new bull market?
OR
Did the "price of gold" simply adjust based upon the whims of High Frequency Trading computers, which "saw" the rapid rise in the relative value of the yen and bought "gold" according to their pre-programmed algorithms?
Obviously, the answer is the latter and it is extremely important that you understand this significance of this. Why? Because the dollar-based "price of gold" has been largely determined by this sole factor for nearly 3.5 years now. See the next chart, again with yen in candles and gold in bars:
The chart above explains the charts below. Why has gold moved counter-intuitively since the onset of QE3 in October of 2012? How was the long-standing relationship between US debt, the Fed balance sheet and the price of gold severed? The answer lies in the total market domination of High Frequency Trading as well as the willing participation of The Bullion Banks to cap all rallies in order to maintain downward momentum.
In the end, what does all this mean? Simply put, the "price" discovered via electronic trading on the Comex and the Globex is NOT a reflection of the price of gold at all. Instead, it's primarily just a reaction of HFT computers to changes in the USDJPY. There's no new "bull market" based upon "investors seeking the safety and certainty of physical gold". Instead, any new bull market in the paper derivative price will simply be a reflection of the continued rally in the value of the yen versus the dollar. That's it and that is all.
What's fun is that the Bullion Banks have unwittingly sewn the seeds of their demise through their participation in this scheme. This uneconomically discovered price is being used by the Chinese, the Russian, the Indians and wise investors globally to drain The System of its remaining physical gold. Soon, the stockpiles of The West will be liquidated and, once no more physical gold remains, this entire fractional reserve pricing scheme will collapse under its own weight. When might this happen? It's impossible to say however, as this great article from Koos Jansen points out, the West's finite supplies are indeed dwindling:https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/london-was-bleeding-184t-of-gold-in-december-3rd-highest-ever-while-china-imported-at-least-217t-highest-ever/
So, what do you do with this information? Well, first of all, you don't get caught up in the hype. Now that you know what really affects "price", you should be able to control your emotions both on upticks and downswings. Additionally, here at TFMR, we do quite well at recognizing inflection points and trends in gold and the USDJPY. Forewarned is forearmed, they say, and subscribers to The Vault use this knowledge to their advantage. But most importantly, recognize this:
The "price of gold" as reported by the media and repeated by analysts and pundits everywhere is no more proxy for the actual intrinsic value of gold than is virtual reality a proxy for real life. You're told that it's real and it may look real but it's not. Not by a longshot. In the end, your best strategy is to mimic the Chinese, Russians and Indians. Recognize the value inherent in the fraudulently-determined "price" and act accordingly by continually converting your paper currency reserves into sound money...while you still can.
The Illegitimacy of Comex Pricing
Posted with permission and written by Craig Hemke, TF Metals Report & Sprott Money correspondent
Experts: Invasion of Syria Could Lead to Nuclear War
Submitted by George W.
02/19/2016 12:26 -0500
Turkey previously shot down a Russian jet.
Now, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are threatening to invade Syria.
How dangerous could this get, in a worst case scenario?
Robert Parry – the investigative reporter who broke the Iran-Contra story for the Associated Press and Newsweek – wrote yesterday:
A source close to Russian President Vladimir Putin told me that the Russians have warned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Moscow is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons if necessary to save their troops in the face of a Turkish-Saudi onslaught. Since Turkey is a member of NATO, any such conflict could quickly escalate into a full-scale nuclear confrontation.
Washington’s Blog asked one of America’s top experts on Russia – Stephen Cohen, professor emeritus of Russian studies and politics at New York University and Princeton University, and the author of a number of books on Russia and the Soviet Union – what he thought of Parry’s claim.
Cohen said:
Parry is a serious man [“serious” is the highest compliment that an insider can give to someone]. I cannot say it will lead to nuke war, but it is very dangerous, as is quadrupling US/NATO forces near Russia’s borders.
Pavel Felgenhauer – a leading Russian military analyst – also believes that a nuclear war is “very likely” to arise from Russia’s skirmishes with Turkey in Syria.
Last December, U.S. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard – a Member of the House Armed Services Committee, Iraq war veteran, and Major in the Hawaii Army National Guard – warned that U.S. policy in Syria could lead to a nuclear war. And see this.
Also in December, retired Lieutenant General Robert Gard, chairman emeritus of the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, retired Brigadier General John H. Johns, professor emeritus from US National Defense University, and Leslie Gelb, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, penned an article in Foreign Policy calling for US-Russia cooperation to de-escalate current tensions and diffuse the increasing worrisome nuclear blustering.
American security expert Bruce Blair – a former nuclear-missile launch officer – notes that Turkey’s downing of the Russian warplane at the Syrian-Turkish border “fits a pattern of brinkmanship and inadvertence that is raising tensions and distrust between Russia and US-led NATO,” and that “this escalation could morph by design or inadvertence into a nuclear threat.”
Blair writes that the threat of nuclear war is higher now that during the Soviet era:
Russia has shortened the launch time from what it was during the Cold War. Today, top military command posts in the Moscow area can bypass the entire human chain of command and directly fire by remote control rockets in silos and on trucks as far away as Siberia in only 20 seconds.
Why should this concern us? History shows that crisis interactions, once triggered, take on a life of their own. Military encounters multiply; they become more decentralized, spontaneous and intense. Safeguards are loosened and unfamiliar operational environments cause accidents and unauthorized actions. Miscalculations, misinterpretations and loss of control create a fog of crisis out of which a fog of war may emerge. In short, the slope between the low-level military encounters, the outbreak of crisis and escalation to a nuclear dimension is a steep and slippery one.
(Indeed, the U.S. and Soviets came within seconds of all-out nuclear war on numerous occasions. And only the courage of U.S. and Soviet individuals to say no when their superiors told them to fire nuclear weapons – in the face of mistaken readings – saved the planet from nuclear war.)
Russia expert Stephen Cohen agrees that the risks of nuclear war are much higher than people know, telling the Commonwealth Club last year that the threat of nuclear war with Russia is now greater than it was with the Soviets.
Former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry agrees that the risk of nuclear war is higher than during the Soviet era.
Postscript: Top Russian, American and Polish experts also warn that continued fighting in Ukraine could lead to nuclear war.
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Re: Viernes 19/02/16 CPI 0 Inflacion
por admin » Vie Feb 19, 2016 10:05 pm
Primero MRESUMEN-Banco Central de Colombia sube tasa de interés y Gobierno recorta gasto
Por Nelson Bocanegra
BOGOTÁ (Reuters) - El Banco Central de Colombia incrementó el viernes su tasa de interés y ajustó una medida cambiaria para contener la inflación y el déficit en la cuenta corriente, mientras que el Gobierno anunció un recorte de gastos en su presupuesto de este año en busca de asegurar el cumplimiento de sus metas fiscales.
La autoridad monetaria subió su tipo referencial en 25 puntos base a un 6,25 por ciento, en línea con lo esperado por la mayoría del mercado.
La decisión no contó con el voto unánime de los siete miembros del directorio del banco, lo que supondría que se mantuvo la petición de una minoría de un ajuste más fuerte, ante el alza de los precios.
Se trata del sexto mes consecutivo en el que el emisor eleva su tasa, con lo que acumula un alza de 175 puntos base.
"Incrementos mayores que los esperados en los precios de los alimentos y aumentos adicionales de la tasa de cambio relacionados en buena parte con la caída del precio del petróleo siguen ejerciendo presiones al alza de la inflación", dijo el gerente del banco, José Darío Uribe, a periodistas.
En un sondeo a finales de la semana pasada, la mayoría de los analistas estimó que el banco elevaría su tipo referencial en 25 puntos base en cada una de sus reuniones de febrero, marzo y abril, hasta llevarla a un 6,75 por ciento.
Las expectativas aumentaron después de que la inflación en enero se disparó a un 7,45 por ciento anual, su mayor nivel en más de una década y muy por encima de la meta de largo plazo del banco, de entre 2 y 4 por ciento.
Uribe precisó que además de la inflación, existen crecientes preocupaciones sobre el alto déficit en la cuenta corriente, que se mantiene por encima del 6 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), una de las razones por las que Standard & Poor's rebajó esta semana a negativo desde estable el panorama de la calificación crediticia soberana de Colombia.
MEDIDA CAMBIARIA
Adicionalmente, el banco modificó una norma para intervenir en el mercado cambiario a través de la venta de dólares y suavizar la depreciación del peso, que acumula un 37,4 por ciento en los últimos 12 meses, parte de la cual se ha transmitido a los precios al consumidor.
El Banco redujo el porcentaje para la activación de la subasta de opciones "call" de desacumulación de reservas internacionales a un 3 por ciento, desde un 5 por ciento para vender dólares a los intermediarios del mercado. El monto de la subasta, de 500 millones de dólares, y el resto de condiciones se mantienen sin cambios.
"Las expectativas de inflación siguen altas y es previsible un traspaso adicional de la devaluación del peso a los precios internos", explicó Uribe.
Por su parte, el ministro de Hacienda, Mauricio Cárdenas, anunció un recorte de gastos por 6 billones de pesos (1.800 millones de dólares) en el presupuesto de este año, en busca de cumplir con la meta de déficit fiscal del Gobierno Nacional Central de 3,6 por ciento del PIB, en medio de la caída de los ingresos por los bajos precios del crudo.
El recorte equivale a un 0,7 por ciento del PIB, precisó Cárdenas.
(Reporte de Nelson Bocanegra; Editado por Ricardo Figueroa/Manuel Farías)éxico ahora Colombia.
----
Por Nelson Bocanegra
BOGOTÁ (Reuters) - El Banco Central de Colombia incrementó el viernes su tasa de interés y ajustó una medida cambiaria para contener la inflación y el déficit en la cuenta corriente, mientras que el Gobierno anunció un recorte de gastos en su presupuesto de este año en busca de asegurar el cumplimiento de sus metas fiscales.
La autoridad monetaria subió su tipo referencial en 25 puntos base a un 6,25 por ciento, en línea con lo esperado por la mayoría del mercado.
La decisión no contó con el voto unánime de los siete miembros del directorio del banco, lo que supondría que se mantuvo la petición de una minoría de un ajuste más fuerte, ante el alza de los precios.
Se trata del sexto mes consecutivo en el que el emisor eleva su tasa, con lo que acumula un alza de 175 puntos base.
"Incrementos mayores que los esperados en los precios de los alimentos y aumentos adicionales de la tasa de cambio relacionados en buena parte con la caída del precio del petróleo siguen ejerciendo presiones al alza de la inflación", dijo el gerente del banco, José Darío Uribe, a periodistas.
En un sondeo a finales de la semana pasada, la mayoría de los analistas estimó que el banco elevaría su tipo referencial en 25 puntos base en cada una de sus reuniones de febrero, marzo y abril, hasta llevarla a un 6,75 por ciento.
Las expectativas aumentaron después de que la inflación en enero se disparó a un 7,45 por ciento anual, su mayor nivel en más de una década y muy por encima de la meta de largo plazo del banco, de entre 2 y 4 por ciento.
Uribe precisó que además de la inflación, existen crecientes preocupaciones sobre el alto déficit en la cuenta corriente, que se mantiene por encima del 6 por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), una de las razones por las que Standard & Poor's rebajó esta semana a negativo desde estable el panorama de la calificación crediticia soberana de Colombia.
MEDIDA CAMBIARIA
Adicionalmente, el banco modificó una norma para intervenir en el mercado cambiario a través de la venta de dólares y suavizar la depreciación del peso, que acumula un 37,4 por ciento en los últimos 12 meses, parte de la cual se ha transmitido a los precios al consumidor.
El Banco redujo el porcentaje para la activación de la subasta de opciones "call" de desacumulación de reservas internacionales a un 3 por ciento, desde un 5 por ciento para vender dólares a los intermediarios del mercado. El monto de la subasta, de 500 millones de dólares, y el resto de condiciones se mantienen sin cambios.
"Las expectativas de inflación siguen altas y es previsible un traspaso adicional de la devaluación del peso a los precios internos", explicó Uribe.
Por su parte, el ministro de Hacienda, Mauricio Cárdenas, anunció un recorte de gastos por 6 billones de pesos (1.800 millones de dólares) en el presupuesto de este año, en busca de cumplir con la meta de déficit fiscal del Gobierno Nacional Central de 3,6 por ciento del PIB, en medio de la caída de los ingresos por los bajos precios del crudo.
El recorte equivale a un 0,7 por ciento del PIB, precisó Cárdenas.
(Reporte de Nelson Bocanegra; Editado por Ricardo Figueroa/Manuel Farías)éxico ahora Colombia.
----
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