Martes 01/03/16 PMI, ISM, gasto en construccion

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Martes

Eventos economicos

Ventas ed autos
PMI manufacturero
ISM manufacturero
Gasto en construccion
Subasta de bonos

Motor Vehicle Sales[Report][djStar]

Redbook
[Bullet8:55 AM ET

PMI Manufacturing Index
[Report][djStar]9:45 AM ET

ISM Mfg Index
[Report][Star]10:00 AM ET

Construction Spending
[Report][djStar]10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

Gallup US ECI
[Bullet2:00 PM ET

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Futures LAST CHANGE % CHG
See all Futures
Crude Oil 33.74 -0.01 -0.03%
Brent Crude 36.48 -0.09 -0.25%
Natural Gas 1.696 -0.015 -0.88%
Gasoline 1.3155 -0.0052 -0.39%
Gold 1244.8 10.4 0.84%
Silver 14.920 0.002 0.01%
Corn 357.00 0.00 0.00%
Wheat 453.5 0.3 0.06%
E-mini DJIA 16475 -22 -0.13%
E-mini S&P 500 1926.00 -3.50 -0.18%

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Currencies11:00 PM EST 2/29/2016
LAST(MID) CHANGE
Euro (EUR/USD) 1.0881 0.0008
Yen (USD/JPY) 112.55 -0.14
Pound (GBP/USD) 1.3940 0.0023
Australia $ (AUD/USD) 0.7136 -0.0006
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 0.9976 -0.0008
WSJ Dollar Index 89.89 -0.08
Futures10:50 PM EST 2/29/2016
LAST CHANGE % CHG
Crude Oil 33.75 0.00 0.00%
Brent Crude 36.49 -0.08 -0.22%
Gold 1244.8 10.4 0.84%
Silver 14.920 0.002 0.01%
E-mini DJIA 16478 -19 -0.12%
E-mini S&P 500 1926.25 -3.25 -0.17%

Government Bonds11:00 PM EST 2/29/2016
PRICE CHG YIELD
U.S. 10 Year 6/32 1.715
German 10 Year 0/32 0.110
Japan 10 Year 2/32 -0.068

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LAST CHANGE % CHG
Get index data by Email
Japan: Nikkei 225 15980.02 -46.74 -0.29%
Hang Seng 19198.62 86.69 0.45%
Shanghai Composite 2693.46 5.48 0.20%
S&P BSE Sensex 23196.05 194.05 0.84%
Australia: S&P/ASX 4905.20 24.30 0.50%
UK: FTSE 100 6097.09 1.08 0.02%
DJIA 16516.50 -123.47 -0.74%
Asia Dow 2511.07 16.93 0.68%
Global Dow 2161.11 3.95 0.18%

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Copper February 29,22:59
Bid/Ask 2.1212 - 2.1219
Change -0.0177 -0.83%
Low/High 2.1122 - 2.1394
Charts

Nickel February 29,22:36
Bid/Ask 3.8428 - 3.8451
Change -0.0295 -0.76%
Low/High 3.8315 - 3.8769
Charts

Aluminum February 29,22:56
Bid/Ask 0.7225 - 0.7230
Change -0.0050 -0.69%
Low/High 0.7207 - 0.7289
Charts

Zinc February 29,22:59
Bid/Ask 0.7855 - 0.7858
Change -0.0102 -1.28%
Low/High 0.7835 - 0.7987
Charts

Lead February 29,22:54
Bid/Ask 0.7945 - 0.7952
Change -0.0039 -0.49%
Low/High 0.7927 - 0.8027
Charts

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Actividad manufacturera de China se contrae más que lo previsto en febrero: PMI oficial
lunes 29 de febrero de 2016 23:02 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
SHANGHÁI (Reuters) - La actividad del sector manufacturero de China descendió en febrero con más fuerza que lo esperado, en su séptimo mes consecutivo de contracción, mostró un sondeo oficial, lo que sugiere que el Gobierno tendrá que redoblar su estímulo para evitar un enfriamiento de la economía más severo.

Algunos inversores se habían preparado para una cifra negativa luego de que el banco central alivió inesperadamente su política en la noche del lunes, inyectando un total estimado de 100.000 millones de dólares en efectivo al sistema bancario para mitigar los efectos derivados de reformas como la reestructuración de grandes empresas estatales.

El Índice de Gerentes de Compra (PMI) oficial del sector manufacturero cayó a 49,0 puntos en febrero desde 49,4 en enero, por debajo del umbral de 50 puntos que separa a la expansión de la contracción según una base de comparación mensual. Economistas consultados por Reuters esperaban sólo una leve baja a 49,3.

La cifra es la más baja desde noviembre del 2011, que también fue de 49,0.

El sector manufacturero de China se ha visto presionado por una débil demanda local e internacional y un enorme exceso de capacidad en industrias clave como el acero y el carbón, lo que lo hace altamente resistente al impacto de los recortes de tasas de interés del banco central y a una serie de medidas de estímulo adoptadas desde noviembre del 2014.

Las nuevas órdenes de exportaciones y las órdenes totales siguieron contrayéndose en febrero, lo que llevó a los empleadores a despedir trabajadores. Las utilidades industriales, en tanto, cayeron un 2,3 por ciento en el 2015, luego de subir un 3,3 por ciento en el 2014.

Además, algunos manufactureros de sectores intensivos en el uso de capital están lidiando con una enorme carga de deuda, que se está volviendo más difícil de pagar debido a que se han visto obligados a rebajar constantemente sus precios para conseguir ventas.

El PMI oficial del sector no manufacturero cayó a 52,7 en febrero desde 53,5 en enero, pero se mantuvo en territorio expansivo, según un sondeo similar al sector realizado por la Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas.

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Inversores registran entrada de capitales a deuda de mercados emergentes en febrero: IIF
lunes 29 de febrero de 2016 15:37 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
Unas personas en una casa de cambios en Estambul, dic 16, 2014. Los flujos hacia los bonos y acciones de mercados emergentes se mantuvieron mayormente estables en febrero tras siete meses consecutivos de fuertes salidas de dinero ya que el apetito por el riesgo mejoró levemente, según el Instituto Internacional de Finanzas (IFF).
REUTERS/Murad Sezer
1 de 1Tamaño Completo
NUEVA YORK (Reuters) - Los flujos hacia los bonos y acciones de mercados emergentes se mantuvieron mayormente estables en febrero tras siete meses consecutivos de fuertes salidas de dinero ya que el apetito por el riesgo mejoró levemente, según el Instituto Internacional de Finanzas (IFF).

El grupo con sede en Washington dijo que los mercados bursátiles emergentes tuvieron salidas de dinero por 1.100 millones de dólares, mientras que los mercados de bonos vieron flujos positivos por 900 millones de dólares.

Los movimientos de febrero fueron conducidos por cierta estabilidad en los precios de las acciones y el petróleo. Aunque los flujos positivos fueron mínimos, sugieren cierta calma en los mercados.

A nivel regional, América Latina tuvo entradas de capital por 2.700 millones de dólares, marcando el segundo mes consecutivo de cifras positivas.

"Teniendo en cuenta de dónde venimos, con una gran incertidumbre en el mercado y salida de flujos en los siete meses previos, los movimientos de este mes son realmente alentadores y sugieren que tal vez es un punto de inflexión", aseguró Robin Koepke, economista senior del IFF.

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Chilena Codelco inicia normalización de operaciones en mina Andina tras incidente
lunes 29 de febrero de 2016 15:40 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
Imagen de archivo de la mina Andina de la estatal chilena Codelco, ubicada a las afueras de Santiago, nov 17, 2014. La estatal chilena Codelco, mayor productora mundial de cobre, informó el lunes que inició una normalización gradual de las operaciones detenidas en su mina Andina tras la ruptura de un ducto de concentrado de cobre la semana pasada, que espera no tenga impacto en sus resultados para este año.
REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado
1 de 1Tamaño Completo
SANTIAGO (Reuters) - La estatal chilena Codelco, mayor productora mundial de cobre, informó el lunes que inició una normalización gradual de las operaciones detenidas en su mina Andina tras la ruptura de un ducto de concentrado de cobre la semana pasada, que espera no tenga impacto en sus resultados para este año.

La cuprífera había dicho el viernes que mantenía suspendido el envío de concentrado del metal tras el incidente en que se vertieron unos 50 metros cúbicos de material a un río cercano.

"El Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (Sernageomin) ha permitido el restablecimiento de los parámetros operacionales bajo las condiciones y exigencias que el mismo servicio fiscalizará en terreno, por lo que la empresa ha comenzado gradualmente a normalizar sus operaciones", dijo Codelco en un comunicado.

En una carta posterior al regulador local de valores, la empresa dijo que el incidente "generó una desviación productiva de 206.775 toneladas de tratamiento menos" pero que realizaría esfuerzos por recuperarlas en el resto del año, con lo que no espera un impacto en sus resultados anuales.

La estatal dijo que de acuerdo a las investigaciones fue un elemento ajeno al sistema de transporte el que generó la obstrucción de la tubería.

El ducto lleva el material desde la concentradora hasta la planta de filtrado.

Andina produjo 224.300 toneladas de cobre en 2015.

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Morales pide saber si un hijo suyo está vivo, en medio de escándalo en Bolivia
lunes 29 de febrero de 2016 13:27 GYT Imprimir [-] Texto [+]
El presidente de Bolivia, Evo Morales, durante una conferencia de prensa en el palacio presidencial en La Paz, Bolivia, 29 de febrero de 2016. El presidente de Bolivia, Evo Morales, pidió el lunes a la familia de su ex pareja que le informen si el hijo que tuvo con ella hace ocho años está vivo, un día después de que la mujer fue detenida por tráfico de influencias. REUTERS/Bolivian Presidency/Handout via Reuters ATENCIÓN EDITORES - SÓLO DISPONIBLE PARA USO EDITORIAL, NO DISPONIBLE PARA CAMPAÑAS DE MÁRKETING NI PUBLICIDAD. ESTA IMAGEN FUE PROVISTA POR UNA TERCERA PARTE. ESTA IMAGEN ES DISTRIBUIDA EXACTAMENTE COMO FUE RECIBIDA POR REUTERS COMO UN SERVICIO PARA NUESTROS CLIENTES
1 de 1Tamaño Completo
LA PAZ (Reuters) - El presidente de Bolivia, Evo Morales, pidió el lunes a la familia de su ex pareja que le informen si el hijo que tuvo con ella hace ocho años está vivo, un día después de que la mujer fue detenida por tráfico de influencias.

En 2007, Morales tuvo un hijo con Gabriela Zapata, pero ella le dijo que el bebé estaba enfermo y había fallecido. Sin embargo, una tía de Zapata dijo en las últimas horas que el niño está vivo.

"Tengo derecho a conocer a mi hijo, a cuidarlo, a protegerlo, es mi obligación. Espero que me lo traigan en las próximas horas", dijo Morales en una conferencia de prensa en el Palacio de Gobierno.

La ex pareja de Morales fue detenida el domingo por acusaciones de enriquecimiento ilícito y tráfico de influencias, relacionadas con lucrativos contratos gubernamentales que habría conseguido para la compañía para la cual trabajaba.

Morales, soltero, ha reconocido que tuvo una relación con Zapata, pero dudas sobre si ha dicho la verdad al respecto han dañado su popularidad, lo que posiblemente fue un factor importante en la derrota que sufrió la semana pasada en un referendo para modificar la Constitución, que le hubiese permitido buscar un nuevo mandato presidencial en 2019.

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http://lat.wsj.com/home-page

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Trump y Clinton imparables en las primarias de sus respectivos partidos.

[Fenix]

With $1.8 Trillion In Debt Maturing This Year, Two
Big Problems Emerge
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/29/2016 - 18:20 The first big problem, or rather first 9.5 trillion problems: that is how much debt the
corporate buyback binge will cost
companies over the next 5 years as the debt
matures. The second big problem is even more important: the disappearance of virtually all demand from the primary bond market, most
certainly in the junk space, and gradually, in investment grade
as well.

Peak Complacency (Again)
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/29/2016 15:45 -0500 Volatility As stocks have risen in recent weeks on the biggest short-squeeze in 7
years, so VIX - the expected volatility of the market - has dropped to 2016 lows. However, with VIX at around 20, remains almost double the peak-QE-suppression lows of July 2014. Complacency is peaking though as VVIX - the expected volatility of VIX - has collapsed to its post-QE lows and erased all fear since before China's August 2015 devaluation. It seems the VIX complex is pricing in some "easing" (in other words
"vol suppression") soon... Is the VIX derivative market expecting more QE? Unlikely. But NIRP
maybe... as bets on The Fed going negative soar to record highs... What's Sign up for personalised news updates to help you trade successfully News.Markets Open a Forex Account and Get 60% Bonus on All Deposits. IronFX

[Fenix]

Gold Glows As Stocks Suffer Longest Losing Streak Since
2011
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/29/2016 16:03 -0500 2s10s 2s10s 2s10s. China Crude Crude Oil NASDAQ NYMEX Reality Shenzhen Yield Curve So much excitment but by the end of the month... Some high-/low-lights for February... China's Shenzhen Composite Down 28.8% in 2 months - biggest drop since July 1994 S&P 500 Down 0.4% in Feb - 4th losing month in a row - longest streak since 2011 Dow Transports Up 6.75% in Feb - best month since Jan 2013 Financial Stocks Down 2.3% in Feb - 3rd loss in a row for first time since 2011 FANGs Down 4.5% in Feb - biggest drop since March 2014 10Y Treasury Yield Down 54bps in 2 months - biggest absolute drop since May 2012 Treasury Curve (2s10s) Down 17% in Feb - 4th flattening in a row, biggest drop since Jan 2015 to Nov 2007 lows Gold Up 10.8% in Feb - best month since Jan 2012 (best 2 months since Aug 2011) Crude Oil (April WTI) Down 4.2% in Feb - 4th loss in a row for first time since Dec 2014 USDJPY Down 7% in Feb - biggest monthly collapse since October 2008 GBPUSD Down 9.8% in 4 months - biggest plunge since Dec 08 to lowest since Aug 1985 We're gonna ned another RRR cut... What's Sign up for personalised news updates to help you trade successfully News.Markets Open a Forex Account and Get 60% Bonus on All Deposits. IronFX S&P 1940.25 was all that mattered today (the line between a red or
green close for Feb) On the day, we reoundtripped from early exuberance on terrible data...
NOT off the lows... Leaving stocks practically unchanged (Nasdaq underperforming with
The Dow eking out a small gain) except for Trannies' huge surge... Financials and Energy were among the weakest performers today with
Utilities the only sector green on the day. But on the month Materials (QE hope?) dramatically outperformed as Energy and Financials
slumped... While financials ended the month lower (3rd month in a row for the first time since 2011), they rallied higher off the Dimon Bottom, decoupling again from yield curve reality... FANGs bounce in the second half of Feb but only FB remains green for
2016... VIX bounced to the tick off the 200DMA... Treasury yields fell on the day (with notable bull flattening) but on the
month, 2Y is basically unchanged as the out-ruve has plunged
12-20bps... Feb's close at 1.74% is the lowest monthly close since Jan 2015 The USDollar Index ended the day unchanged (as JPY strength offset
EUR weaknes)... As despite rallying for almost 3 weeks, the USD ended -1.4% on the
month... As USDJPY implodes... And Cable dropped for the 4th month in a row to its lowest close since Aug 1985... Commodities all gained on the day (led by another rampfest in crude)... But on the month Gold was the biggest winner (diverging from silver in
recent weeks) with crude lower... Just utter idiocy as algos 'banged the close' on NYMEX... But gold completed its Golden cross into month-end... Charts: Bloomberg

Six Reasons To Buy Gold In 2016
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/29/2016 15:25 -0500 Bear Market Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke Bernie Sanders Bond Central Banks Donald Trump Eurozone Exchange Traded Fund France Germany Global Economy Gold Bugs Hyperinflation Investor Sentiment Japan Layering McKinsey Milton Friedman Monetary Policy Natural Gas Precious Metals Purchasing Power Quantitative Easing Real Interest Rates recovery Reserve Currency Saudi Arabia Volatility Yen Via EvergreenGavekal.com, SUMMARY Gold bullion and gold mining stocks have rallied 18% and 51%,
respectively, in recent months after a brutal bear market over the last
five years. Given gold’s proven ability to hold its value in the face of rising inflation
and reckless monetary policy, we believe it plays an important role in
any diversified portfolio. At Evergreen Gavekal, we believe it may be time to to start initiating or
adding to additional gold holdings for six reasons. What's Sign up for personalised news updates to help you trade successfully News.Markets Open a Forex Account and Get 60% Bonus on All Deposits. IronFX 1. Technical trading patterns suggest gold may finally be breaking out
into a bull market (we do caution, however, that it appears to be
temporarily over-bought). 2. Gold remains out of favor despite the recent rally. 3. The Fed’s ability to hike nominal interest rates is constrained. 4. The overpriced US dollar has limited room to run. 5. Real interest rates are heading lower around the world as central
banks get creative. 6. Physical gold may be difficult to acquire in the coming years. SIX REASONS TO BUY GOLD IN 2016 The following commentary is from the Evergreen Investment
Team: Gold is one of the most hated asset classes on the planet. In Wall Street’s eyes, it’s never been a legitimate investment. Gold
reports no quarterly earnings, pays no dividend, and (until the rise of the
launch of the SPDR Gold Trust ETF* in 2004, along with a flurry of
similar products and services in recent years) generates no sales
commissions for brokers still advising the majority of American
investors. But try as they may to paint the yellow metal as a “barbarous relic” or a
“pet rock,” the financial establishment can’t change the fact that gold is
money in virtually every country and every community on the planet. While the average life of a fiat currency has been just twenty seven
years and the average life of a reserve currency has been just ninety
five years throughout the modern era, gold has held its value over
millennia. For example, an ounce of gold supposedly bought 350 loaves of bread
in ancient Babylon (about $3.51 per loaf today) and first century Roman
Centurions earned about 38.58 ounces of gold each year (about $47.5K
today). Those numbers are remarkably close to today’s prices. Needless to say, gold has stood the test of time. From that perspective, the yellow metal’s proven ability to hold its value
as the purchasing power of paper money erodes makes it an excellent
long-term hedge against inflation and a safe haven in the face of
governments and/or central banks gone wild. So the shiny stuff should have been the perfect investment in a world
where major central banks increased their collective balance sheets by
almost $10 trillion, right? Unfortunately not. Conventional wisdom in 2009 and 2010 argued that ultra-low nominal
interest rates and quantitative easing (i.e., massive money
manufacturing) would inevitably lead to hyperinflation, that the US dollar
and US Treasury bonds would collapse, and that gold would soon be
the only safe haven left. But the consensus among gold bugs, dollar
doubters, and bond bears was dead wrong… at least in terms of timing. Instead of accelerating into an uncontrollable wage-price spiral, inflation
has languished and inflation expectations have collapsed along with the
price of almost every commodity. Thus far, all that money printing has done nothing but encourage
another $60 trillion in global debt growth according to a recent study by
the McKinsey Global Institute. Rather than looking like Zimbabwe in
2008 or Weimar Germany in 1923, the United States and Europe are
looking more and more like Japan with each passing year. To be clear, we still don’t know where this debt-paved road will
ultimately lead. Japan may yet fall into hyperinflation as the yen
collapses from ¥111/$ today to ¥200/$ before we know it. But thus far, the country’s massive debt load (660%+ of GDP) is
weighing on growth and dragging the country toward outright deflation.
Moreover, the Eurozone (debt 460%+ of GDP) and the United States
(debt 350%+ of GDP) also appear to have hit the point of diminishing
return when it comes to layering on more IOUs. That’s why—as a result of diverging monetary policy between the less
indebted United States and our more indebted peers—the US dollar has
gained in excess of 30% and long-dated US Treasuries have returned
more than 45% over the last five years. During that same timeframe,
the price of gold bullion declined nearly 40% and gold mining stocks
collapsed by a whopping 70%. Needless to say, all those who abandoned diversified portfolios for the
“safety” of gold have lost a considerable share of their purchasing
power while US stocks more than doubled over the same period. It’s no wonder that gold has lost its glitter for most investors, but as
billionaire resources investor Rick Rule recently noted, “These periods
of deep despair are the necessary component, the necessary factor to
turn a bear market into a bull market.” Unsurprisingly, the towering in-
flows that went into the gold exchange traded fund (GLD) when bullion
was rising back in 2009 through 2011, turned into relentless out-flows during its multi-year decline. As is so often the case, the redemptions
hit a crescendo as gold prices were nearing their lows, clearly reflecting
the “deep despair” that typically occurs at bear market troughs. GOLD ETF IN-FLOWS AND OUT-FLOWS VS GOLD PRICE Source: Evergreen Gavekal, Bloomberg At Evergreen Gavekal, we believe low valuations and entrenched
bearishness on top of a fundamentally improving outlook (as we’re
seeing in the market for gold bullion and gold miners) are the hallmarks
of emerging opportunities. Conversely, high valuations and resilient
optimism on top of a fundamentally deteriorating outlook (as we’re
seeing in US equities) are the hallmarks of imminent corrections. Reaping a profit from this still-reviled asset class will require
discipline and patience, but we believe we are approaching a good
re-entry point for gold and gold miners for six reasons. (1) Technical trading patterns suggest gold may finally be breaking out into a bull market. Year-to-date, gold prices have leaped by more than 18% and gold
mining stocks have surged by more than 50% as the trade weighted US
dollar softened. Although we believe gold is currently short-term overbought here… GOLD PRICE (TOP CHART) INVESTOR SENTIMENT TOWARD
GOLD (BOTTOM CHART) …technical trading patterns suggest the yellow metal may be rounding
the corner and getting ready to break out into a full-fledged bull market. (2) Despite the recent rally, gold remains remarkably out-of-favor. Despite the surge we’ve seen in gold and gold miner stock prices in
recent months, attitudes don’t change overnight. Trading volume and
upside volatility are coming back, but investor’s hesitant re-embrace of
gold may signal an even bigger shift in global sentiment. Buying gold
today may be comparable to buying stocks in April 2009. (3) The Fed’s ability to hike nominal interest rates is constrained by global economic risks and financial market volatility. As the Evergreen investment team has been saying for several
months, we believe the Fed’s decision to hike interest rates into an
economic slowdown will limit its ability to normalize interest rates in the
coming year. Additional rate hikes are possible if global markets are
relatively calm when the backward-looking, model-obsessed Federal
Open Market Committee meets at various points throughout the year. However, further tightening would only increase the odds of a policy
reversal as the year drags on. If we are correct, short-term interest
rates may rise ever-so-slightly for a brief period, but will inevitably fall
back toward zero (and even below zero with the likely introduction of
negative interest rates), as we’ve seen with every other central bank
that has tried and failed to raise rates in recent years. (4) The overpriced US dollar has limited room to run. As the following chart from our partners at Gavekal illustrates, the US
dollar may be running out of steam after approaching its most
expensive valuations since the mid-1980s. If that’s true, it could be VERY good news for gold investors given that
bullion’s weakness has been the mirror image of US dollar strength in
recent years. In the event that the dollar drops sharply on softening US
economic data or a Fed policy reversal in the coming months, gold
prices could rise considerably more than we have seen year to date. GOLD PRICES (GREEN) VS TRADE-WEIGHTED US DOLLAR
(WHITE) Source: Evergreen Gavekal, Bloomberg (5) Real interest rates are heading lower around the world as central banks get creative. Central banks have failed miserably in their attempts to kick-start
economic growth and stoke inflationary pressures in the wake of the
global financial crisis. Dropping nominal interest rates to zero and
expanding central bank balance sheets by more than $10 trillion has
only had a marginal and short-lived effect on real economic activity.
Consequently, policymakers are getting desperate. As we discussed in last week’s EVA, nearly 25% of the global
economy (the Eurozone, Denmark, Sweden, & Japan) is now governed
by central banks charging negative interest rates on excess bank
reserves with the hope that banks will start passing on those costs to
their depositors. Yes, you heard that right. Instead of paying a reasonable rate of
interest on the bank deposits they so desperately need to stay in
business, financial institutions in Europe and Japan may soon start
charging for the privilege of holding cash on deposit. The bright idea here is to force savers out of the safety of cash and
stoke an inflationary mindset. But at this point, the specter of negative
rates is just incentivizing savers to withdraw their funds and stuff their
mattresses with cash. So what comes next? Over the past few months, central banks have
been thinking out loud and proposing some wild (and, frankly,
irresponsible) ideas. Some have suggested eliminating physical cash altogether to force
savers to decide between investing in the real economy, taking risks in
financial assets, or paying compound interest on their idle holdings. Others have proposed printing money to support fiscal spending on
things like infrastructure, defense spending, or student loan relief. And, as if the first two ideas weren’t bad enough, the latest policy on
the table is to start sending money directly to adult citizens via what
Milton Friedman and Ben Bernanke both called “Helicopter Drops.” From the hints being sent out by policymakers, it would likely involve
checks sent directly to low-and middle-income citizens financed by
central bank money creation. This, combined with the populist
popularity of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, should send shivers up
the spine of financial asset investors to whom the high inflation this
could cause is toxic. But it would almost certainly light a fire under bullion prices. Now, before you get too excited, let us be clear. We do not know—we
cannot know—exactly where Fed policy is going in the coming years.
But we do believe that nominal and real interest rates are likely heading
a lot lower on the way to whatever wild experiment comes next. As you
can see in the chart below, falling real interest rates have historically
been one of the most important drivers of gold prices, so that’s a bullish development in its own right. And if inflation does pick-up as central
banks get creative, then a spike toward $3,000 per ounce would be
more than reasonable. PRICE OF GOLD COMPARED TO THE FED FUNDS RATE Source: Evergreen Gavekal, Bloomberg (6) Physical gold may be increasingly difficult to acquire as investor attitudes shift in the coming years. One of the underappreciated facts about the global gold market is that
supplies are shrinking in Western markets as more and more bullion
flows to Asia. Should prices spike on an aggressive turn in Fed policy
and a sharp reversal in the US dollar, investors may discover that they
are not able to secure enough physical gold… which in turn may trigger
a spike in financial gold (like the gold ETF) and gold mining stocks. As you can see in the chart below, while gold has been in a garden-variety
bear market, the miners have tumbled down an incredibly deep shaft,
though they, too, appear to be breaking out of their long downtrend.
Despite their recent recovery, they remain down 70% from their 2011
apex. FIVE YEAR PRICE CHART OF GOLD MINERS (GDX) Source: Evergreen Gavekal, Bloomberg It’s fair to say gold and other precious metals were caught up in a
bubble a few years ago when many retail investors—and even a
number of professionals—were certain money printing would lead to
high inflation. But now gold, and especially gold mining stocks, have
achieved “anti-bubble” status, along with all things energy-related. (An
anti-bubble is a condition where years of horrible performance and extremely negative investor sentiment set the stage for substantial
future out-performance.) Please realize we aren’t pounding the table with gold bugs who won’t be
satisfied until gold rockets to $10,000/oz. and the gold standard is
reinstated. But as investors, not traders, looking to hedge against what
increasingly appears to be the dying days of central bank control over
financial markets, gold is hard to ignore. Speaking of energy (and we have a hard time not doing so these days),
per the above chart, as cheap as gold is, oil is even more undervalued.
But, then again, there isn’t the bullion-producing equivalent of a Saudi
Arabia out there, flooding the market with cheap gold—fortunately. On
the other hand, almost every ounce of gold ever mined is still around
while nearly all the oil (and natural gas) produced has been consumed. But what the hey? Why not put some gold and energy into your
portfolios? If reversion to the mean still rules—and we believe it does—both of them have a lot of positive reverting to do…unlike
the US stock market where the reversion is likely to be mean
indeed.

[Fenix]

The Cushing Spillover "Domino Effect" Has Arrived
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/29/2016 15:16 -0500 Crude A little over a week ago, before we described the increasingly more
perilous situation facing US refiners, we summarized the oversupply threat facing the biggest U.S. commercial hub located in Cushing, OK as follows: Today, we return to this so critical (if not now then certainly in the next
few months) hub with a blog post by Genscape which looks at the troubling domino effect of an operationally full Cushing (and by
extensions PADD2), and how this is starting to spill over into PADD3,
aka the Gulf Coast storage, where things are likewise about to go from
bad to much worse. From Genscape Cushing, OK, Storage Domino Effect Sends USGC Stocks Higher U.S. Gulf Coast storage inventories have increased nearly 7mn bbls so far in 2016, and could continue to build as market participants seek
storage there as an alternative to Cushing, OK, where stocks are near
maximum capacity. What's Sign up for personalised news updates to help you trade successfully News.Markets Open a Forex Account and Get 60% Bonus on All Deposits. IronFX As of February 19, 2016, Gulf Coast stocks, including those in
Houston, Beaumont-Nederland, TX, and Corpus Christi, TX, reached
near 75mn bbls, only 739,000 bbls shy of the record high level reached
in October 2015. On January 5, 2016, Cushing inventories surpassed a previous record high level by 125,000 bbls. Due to extensive storage expansion, capacity utilization at Gulf Coast
storage locations was lower the week ending February 19, 2016 at 58
percent compared with capacity utilization during the October 2015
high. At that time utilization was 62 percent. The inventory peak in
October 2015 also followed a record-high at Cushing. The 2015 stock high at Cushing, set April 14, was followed by inventory
builds in the Gulf Coast and West Texas region. Of the Gulf Coast-
monitored storage locations, stocks at Beaumont-Nederland were the
first to hit a record high the week ending September 25, 2015, and other
terminals followed. Beaumont-Nederland inventories were also the first to hit record levels
after Cushing inventories surpassed the previous high on January 5,
2016. Similar builds are likely to occur in other Gulf Coast storage
locations, as they did in late 2015. Lower waterborne crude loadings have also contributed to the recent
increase in Gulf Coast stocks. As of February 19, 2016, Gulf Coast domestic waterborne loading volumes were 34 percent lower than the
beginning of the year and 36 percent lower than 2015 average loading
volumes. Additionally, less loadings have left the Gulf Coast. As of
February 19, 2016, 80 percent of loadings were destined for other Gulf
Coast ports, compared to 42 percent for the week ending January 1,
2016. Since the crude export ban was lifted in December 2015, a handful of
waterborne shipments have shipped from the Gulf Coast for
destinations in Europe. However, these shipments are being displaced
from preexisting destinations, such as refinery markets in eastern
Canada. Therefore, total outgoing waterborne volumes from the Gulf
Coast has not significantly increased since the ban was lifted

China PMIs Plunge, Economists Demand Stimulus
To "Prevent Economy Falling Off A Cliff"
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/29/2016 - 20:12 "The index readings for all key categories
including output, new orders and employment signalled that conditions
worsened, in line with signs that the economy’s road to stability remains bumpy...The government needs to press ahead with reforms, while adopting moderate stimulus policies and strengthening
support of the economy in other ways to prevent it from falling
off a cliff.” COMMENTS: 16 787

[Fenix]

Get Shorty? PBOC Strengthens Yuan, Erases All
RRR-Cut Swing
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/29/2016 - 20:25 For the first time in six days, PBOC decided
to strengthen the Yuan fix (+0.1% to 6.5385). This sent offshore Yuan surging back to pre-
RRR-Cut levels, ensuring that (for the very
short-term) speculators don't get any ideas about piling into a Yuan short (again). This action followed the suspension of China's Open Market Operations (due to lack of interest from traders).


"The GOP Is On The Verge Of A Meltdown": Senior
Republicans Threaten To Vote For Hillary
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/29/2016 - 20:31 It's an all out panic for the GOP establishment
faithful, and now some senior Republicans are
saying privately that they might consider voting for Mrs Clinton if Mr Trump were to
end up as their party nominee as one conservative commentator exclaimed "we are on the verge of a real meltdown in the Republican party."

China's Crowd-Sourced Housing Bubble Goes
"Crazy" - $585,000 For A 65 Square Foot
'Apartment'
Submitted by Tyler D.
02/29/2016 - 21:55 This will not end well...