Martes 15/03/16 Empieza reunion Fed, Ventas retail

[Fenix]

Chinese Insurance Company Which Bought Waldorf Astoria Submits "Hostel Bid" For Marriott Hotels
Submitted by Tyler D.
03/14/2016 - 07:41

The "hostel takeover" saga for Starwood Hotels took another unexpected turn this morning, when the company's stock price soared following news that the hotel chain had received an unsolicited $76/share non-binding proposal (8% premium to the Friday close) from an investor group led by China’s Anbang Insurance Group, in a deal that seeks to scuttle its planned combination with Marriott International. The proposed deal values Starwood, one of the world's largest hotel companies which includes such brands as Westin, Sheraton, The Luxury Collection, W Hotels, St. Regis, Le Meridien and many others, at $12.8 billion.



"We're One Hawkish Fed Statement Away" From A "Sharp Re-Pricing," Deutsche Bank Warns
Submitted by Tyler D.
03/14/2016 07:48 -0400

On Sunday evening we brought you the latest from Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin who explained that sharp swings in crude prices have created pronounced (and in fact historic) momentum swings, catching those who had piled into “popular investment themes” to be caught flat-footed. Here’s what Kostin said:

The correlation between major macro trends has caught many popular investment themes in the momentum spin cycle. In 2015 and the first weeks of this year, lower oil prices were accompanied by lower Treasury yields and downward revisions to US growth expectations, boosting the performance of popular growth stocks and defensive equities while weighing on banks. At the same time, the US dollar, which carries a strong negative correlation with oil, strengthened by nearly 15% and presented another headwind to the US economy. The combination of growth concerns and low oil prices widened credit spreads to recessionary levels and benefitted the performance of stocks with strong balance sheets. All of these trends have reversed sharply in recent weeks.

But as we wrote, Kostin is far from bullish. Instead, he says the market may be underestimating (or else just plain ignoring) the “largest current macro risk”: a hawkish Fed and consequently, a stronger USD. The result, another sharp reversal as stocks with strong balance sheets are once again in vogue versus momo plays, energy, and anything with nosebleed leverage.

Well now Deutsche Bank is falling in line, suggesting that European equity investors are missing the very same risks (i.e. a hawkish Fed, resultant strong USD, and weaker commodities).

“Our European credit strategists estimate that the ECB could buy €5bn - €10bn a month in IG corporate bonds starting at the end of Q2, out of an eligible universe of €400bn - €500bn,” the bank’s European equity strategists write, in note out Monday. “If ECB easing in combination with stronger oil prices pushes up Euro-area inflation expectations, while increased asset purchases reduce peripheral bond spreads, GDP-weighted Euro-area real bond yields have further downside, which should boost European P/Es.”

But, you should be cautious. Why? Because “we are just one hawkish Fed statement away,” from a series of events that will end in investors returning to their “clearly depressed” positioning in February. To wit:

However, we maintain our cautious stance on equities, given that: (a) we think we are just one hawkish Fed statement away from a potentially sharp re-pricing of Fed tightening expectations, which would push up real bond yields (as happened after the start of the ECB’s QE program in Mar 2015) as well as the dollar; (b) the surge in Chinese credit growth in January, a key driver of the recent commodity rally, looks unsustainable (and, in fact, credit figures show lending slowed sharply in February). Any drop in commodity prices would risk putting renewed upside pressure on credit spreads (despite ECB buying); (c) investor positioning is now at neutral levels, while it was clearly depressed in mid-February.

Here is that progression in chart form:

And here's the collapse in TSF growth which suggests January was a blip, along with DB's positioning proxy which certainly suggests that something has to give:

In other words, it's the ECB versus the Fed for the hearts and minds of investors as the policy divergence tug-of-war just got more intense with Draghi's move into corporate credit. As we wrote on Sunday, "the European central bank is backstopping bond issuers, it will almost certainly lead to even more outperformance by weak balance sheet companies as yet another central bank intervention unleashes another divergence between fundamentals and central planning." Unless Yellen accidentally tanks the whole effort.

As for Deutsche's bull case, you'll note that quite a lot has to go right for European equities to realize their supposed 10%-13% upside. In fact, it would appear that nearly everything would have to go right. We'll leave you with the bull case description and let readers judge how likely it is to unfold:

What is the bull case? Anticipation of the ECB corporate bond buying program (CSPP) leads credit spreads to tighten across markets, while real bond yields drop in response to ECB easing and a dovish Fed in March. European macro data stabilizes and commodity prices rise further, as Chinese growth surprises on the upside in H1, in line with our Chinese economists’ projection. Under this scenario, European equities have around 10% upside: if the ECB’s CSPP and stronger commodity prices push US HY credit spreads back to 2015 trough levels (down another 230bps), this points to 13% upside for European equities. Similarly, a drop in Euro-area real bond yields to the Dec trough of minus 55bps (down another 20bps) would mean 6% upside to European P/Es (15.5x, versus 14.6x now). For investors wanting to position for this scenario, banks, autos and insurance benefit the most from a combination of lower credit spreads, lower real bond yields and improved macro momentum.


Oil Plunges Back To Draghi Lows
Submitted by Tyler D.
03/14/2016 - 08:20

Just as we saw with the stock market following Draghi's December disappointment dead-cat-bounce, WTI Crude has collapsed back topost-Draghi lows, erasing all the WTF bounce from Friday. The driver - aside from the fact that there was no driver of the ramp - appears to be comments from Emirates Bank on the resilience of US shale (and the surprising lack of production drops for now).


Egypt Devalues Pound In Bid To Ease Acute Dollar Shortage
Submitted by Tyler D03/14/2016 - 08:29

In a bid to counter a USD shortage that's choking off economic growth, Egypt has devalued the pound by 13%. The move is the latest in a flurry of efforts to increase dollar liquidty in the banking system and avert being effectively forced into taking an IMF loan.

All Eyes On The Fed: Key Events In The Coming Central Bank-Dominated Week
Submitted by Tyler D.
03/14/2016 - 08:49

Last week it was all about the ECB, which disappointed on hopes of further rate cuts (leading to the Thursday selloff) but delivered on the delayed realization that the ECB is now greenlighting a tsunami in buybacks (leading to the Friday market surge). This week it is once again all about central banks, only this time instead of stimulus, the risk is to the downside, with the BOJ expected to do nothing at all after the January NIRP fiasco, while the "data dependent" Fed will - if anything - hint at further hawkishness now that the S&P is back over 2,000.


How Lenders Control The Future Of Oilfield Services
Submitted by Tyler D.
03/14/2016 - 09:13

For the thousands of new entrants into the oilfield services (OFS) industry in the past 15 years - both workers and companies – if you didn’t know what senior secured lending covenants were a year ago, you sure do now. Many new borrowers are enduring a painful education on the legal implications of the lending documents they signed. There is said to be lots of capital on the sidelines looking for deals. OFS owners and managers up against a debt wall should consider finding some.



S&P 500 Loses Key Technical Support In Early Trading
Tyler D.
03/14/2016 09:37 -0400

2019.40 - that is the line in the sand for today - and for now, the S&P 500 cash index is trading back below this key technical support level...

The miracle bounce to the 200-day moving-average...


And today, for now, we have lost that level...


The battle begins.




"It's The Q2 2015 Rally All Over Again" - Morgan Stanley Warns Big Oil Drop Imminent Due To "Rampant Hedging"
Tyler D.
03/14/2016 09:38 -0400

One week ago, the market was disappointed when Goldman's head commodity strategist, Jeffrey Currie pointed out the obvious, namely that the higher the price of oil rises, the greater the probability it will tumble shortly, as a result of recently shut off production going back online. To wit:

Last year commodity prices were driven lower by deflation, divergence and deleveraging which were reinforcing through a negative feedback loop. Deflationary pressures from excess commodity supply reinforced divergence in US growth and a stronger US dollar which in turn exacerbated EM funding costs and the need for EMs to de-lever though lower investment and hence commodity demand. While we believe that these dynamics likely ran their course last year resulting in signs of rebalancing, the force of their reversal has created a new trend in market positioning that could run further. However, the longer they run, the more destabilizing they become to the nascent rebalancing they are trying to price.

This follows our extended discussion of record storage not only in Cushing but PADD2 in general, as well as PADD3 and now, PADD1: it is now only a matter of time before US storage is "operationally full" and no more oil can be accepted for storage leading to a dramatic plunge in its price.

Then over the weekend, we showed why according to Credit Suisse, among the many skeptics of this furious oil short squeeze rally, the most notable sellers into strength were the entities that know the oil market better than anyone: producers themselves, who are rapidly selling the long-end to hedge prices around $40/barrel.

Since January, the spread between spot Brent prices and 2020 Brent prices has dropped nearly $8.00 to $10.71 per barrel, indicating selling in 2017, 2018, and 2019 futures contracts. According to Reuters, the majority of selling has come from E&Ps looking to lock in prices to hedge against a repeat of last year's second half commodity price-route. At the same time, the hedges indicate a lack of confidence that the current commodity rally will continue.





And now, here is Morgan Stanley's Adam Longson with an overnight note which puts all this together, in which he essentially repeats what Goldman and Credit Suisse have said by saying that "Higher Prices and Rampant Hedging Can Extend the Cycle." To wit:

2Q15 rally all over again? The 47% rally in WTI over the last month started with short covering on OPEC/Non-OPEC headlines. However, the carry through has mostly been driven by macro/CTA funds following better macro data points, a weaker USD, trend reversal and buying on hopes of recovery. Most of these factors are technical and appear temporary. But such false rallies can actually be harmful for the recovery.



Producer hedging is rampant in the $40s. Both anecdotal evidence from our trading desk and CFTC data support this. The CFTC producer short position reached new highs after the Jan lows, partly from distressed producers being forced to hedge. However, this latest uptick has not been confined to distressed producers. In our conversations, we are seeing healthy appetite from mid and large cap Permian producers as well. These producers are happy to hedge $45-50 in calendar 2017 and even high 30s/low 40s in 2016 given light hedge positions. Much of this hedging is just current production for now.

Basically, what this means is that as a result of the 50% spike in oil, producers have just succeeded in extending their $40/bbl hedges through to 2018, and no matter what happens to the price of spot, they will now resume pumping at prices that are supposedly profitable. This means that Saudi Arabia will have no choice but to retaliate; it also means that any speculation about a production cut by OPEC, or even freeze, will be promptly forgotten. More details from MS:

* Higher crude prices and hedging can ultimately slow the US production decline.
* Producers can hedge current production and shore up balance sheets. Hedging could keep supply more stable and less responsive to prices, just as excitement about declines was building. It also improves balance sheets and allows more equity issuance.
* At worst, producers could bring on more supply by completing DUCs. WLL recently cited the $40-$45/bbl range as the price necessary to incentivize DUC completions (well below the price to add rigs). Prices are nearly there in the front and are already there a few months out, which could support rapid rigless production.
* In the medium term, producers can use elevated prices to hedge future production. Most producers hedge at least 12 months out. Many entered 2016 in an under-hedged position and want to avoid that for 2017. Furthermore, credit stress has led to a decline in the hedging thresholds. Hedging 2017 at these elevated prices (currently Dec-17 WTI trading at $46/bbl) could help companies lock in returns, and/or support higher rig counts than recent flat price would have suggested

Then there is the stretched positioning which suggests the buying is over:

Positioning data suggests that crude may be getting overbought. WTI and Brent combined net spec length has increased dramatically since late 2015 to the highest level since July 2015. Brent non-commercial net length reached 147k contracts, and according to our Equity Strategy team, has only been higher 9% of the time in the last 5 years. This suggests that the market is positioned in a one-sided fashion, posing risk to the downside.



Risk of more hedging, esp sovereign. Producers will continue to hedge if prices rally. We also worry that large sovereign hedge programs could suddenly come into the market as prices rise and buyers emerge, which has historically been a catalysts for a sell off.



Some evidence refiners may need to cut runs later this year, just as balances are expected to improve. Gasoline stocks outside the US have been more challenging, and margins are slipping. If refiners continue to run harder than demand suggests, the back up in product stocks could push into crude demand.



Declines in supply may be overstated, esp if prices rally. Higher prices and hedging offer producers better cash flows and economics, and prices are now in a range where DUCs may be completed. Plus, the impact of recent supply-side fundamental developments is likely overstated (see below).

* * *

Putting all this together, here is MS on where oil will go next:

The front should be capped by the back. Risk-on can push the rally further, but upside is likely capped near $45 even with a weaker USD. Although macro funds and short covering are lifting the front, producer hedging is limiting the rally in deferred prices. Moreover, US inventories are bloated and will continue to rise, which suggests a contango must remain in the curve. Hence, the back will cap the front. When we put it all together, it suggests WTI will struggle to break $45 in the front, even if the USD continues to pullback.



Bloated inventories will keep the curve from flipping into backwardation, particularly for WTI. We have shown many times that storage utilization drives structure in the front of the curve, particularly during periods of inventory builds. With Cushing already nearing full storage, and US inventories set to build into April or May, we don’t see how time spreads will not trade at some level of distress. As a result, WTI will need to support some level of deep contango over the first 3-6 months. Therefore, producer hedging and buying from macro funds and CTAs can flatten the curve, but we don’t see a world where the front trades in line with (let alone above) the back.



We struggle to see Dec-17 WTI breaking $50 based on producer hedging. Many producers are willing to hedge calendar-2017 WTI at $45 or higher. Much of the buying we have seen from speculators and macro funds has been closer to the front where there is liquidity. Call skew has improved in the back with a few investors and consumers buying out-of-the-money call options, but these are typically small in scale relative to the potential producer selling. As a result, we see a hard cap on 2017 prices.

Finally, if all of this resembles the strong rally of Q2 2015 when oil likewise soared, only to tumble shortly after, it is because that's exactly what it is.

The current setup is similar to 2Q15. Back in 2015, a rally in prices driven primarily by a USD pullback led to producer hedging and capped deferred prices at $65/bbl. This resulted in a flatter curve, but it also limited the rally in the front to $60 given the state of US inventories. The current rally mirrors this period in 2015 in many ways, only that producers are willing to hedge at much lower levels. As the USD and producer hedging reasserted themselves, that rally proved to be short lived.

And with that, the ball is again in Saudi Arabia's court, whose task of putting the "marginal producers" out of business was just delayed by at least one year.

[Fenix]

Russian Support For Iranian Oil Output Increase Sends Crude Crashing Below $37
Tyler D.
03/14/2016 09:53 -0400

Remember last week when oil prices spiked despite a rise in crude production, inventory builds, continuing storage concerns at Cushing, and the admission that there is no March OPEC/NOPEC "freeze" meeting. Well that's all over as Russia's Oil Minister Novak conmfirms Russia's acceptance of Iranian rights to increase oil output post-sanctions, thus blowing away any ideas of a "freeze" or hopes for a cut in global production. April WTI just broke back to a $36 handle - erasing all of those algo gains...

Strong USD, weak Oil... Rinse. Repeat.



None of this should come as any surprise since, as we detailed recently, on Sunday, we got the latest from Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh and the message was unequivocal: “They should leave us alone as long as Iran's crude oil has not reached 4 million. We will accompany them afterwards."

As soon as sanctions were lifted, Iran immediately committed to boosting production by 500,000 b/d and said that by the end of the year, it would bring an additional 500,000 b/d of supply online. That would put Iranian production at around 4 million b/d total and, as we noted back in January, would mean the country will be raking in between $3 and $5 billion every month by the end of 2016.

Which followed (from Tuesday), Kuwait's oil minister Anas al-Saleh delivered a rather stark warning to the rest of OPEC when he said the following about the much ballyhooed crude output freeze: "I'll go full power if there's no agreement. Every barrel I produce I'll sell.”

As we noted previously, catching a falling knife is hard, especially when it’s covered in oil. The International Energy Agency today said oil prices may have bottomed out. Several people have tried to call the oil’s floor since prices started falling in the summer of 2014. So far nobody has been right.



Of course it's different this time, this really is the bottom. Except, with ETF shorts having collapsed to "norms" the buyers of last resort will have their work cut out maintaining the dream with no one left to squeeze...


From "Ugly-Stepchild" To "Beauty Queen" - Gold ETF Holdings Surge To 18-Month Highs
Tyler D.
3/14/2016 11:18 -0400

Despite Goldman Sachs "short gold" recommendation - which came within pennies of being stopped out last week - traders, investors, and safe-haven seekers continue to push into the precious metals. Gold has "seen some exceptional flows after quite a few years of being the ugly redheaded stepchild, but it’s not moved into sort of beauty-queen territory," notes one commodity strategist as hedge fund net-long positionsare the highest since Feb 2015 and gold holdings in ETPs has soared to 18 month highs (amid the longest stretch of gains since 2012) squeezing the likes of Blackrock (in search of physical gold to meet ETF demand).



Chart: Bloomberg

As Bloomberg reports, There seems to be almost nothing that will deter this year’s newfound gold enthusiasm.

Even with a turnaround in global equities and signs of a more robust U.S. economy, investors are still piling into the metal. Money managers are holding the biggest net-wager on a rally in more than a year, and holdings in bullion-backed funds have climbed for 10 straight weeks, the longest streak since 2012. All this comes as Goldman Sachs, the bank that foresaw gold’s collapse in 2013, continues to stick by its prediction that prices will start to retreat.



The rally “has some legs, because I don’t think there’s any easy solution to this conundrum of slow growth,” said John Stephenson, the chief executive officer of Stephenson & Co. Capital Management in Toronto, which oversees C$55 million ($42 million). “What’s driving it is really just this uncertainty surrounding central-bank policy, negative interest rates, because they’re really at the heart of the whole issue right now that markets are struggling with. In that kind of environment, gold looks pretty attractive.”



Gold has “seen some exceptional flows after quite a few years of being the ugly redheaded stepchild, but it’s not moved into sort of beauty-queen territory,” said Fiona Boal, director of commodity research at Fulcrum Asset Management in London, which oversees $3.7 billion.

Gold is heading for a third straight monthly gain. While the U.S. has been resilient, there’s increasing concern that slowdowns in Europe and Asia could lead to a global recession.

[Fenix]

Options Signal Short-Term Complacency, Medium-Term Terror
Submitted by Tyler D.
03/14/2016 13:35 -0400


With one central bank meeting down, but two to go, VIX and VSTOXX (Europe's VIX equivalent) have plunged to 2016 lows discounting any 'events' upsetting the complacency anytime soon. However, as Goldman's options strategists note, the medium-term skew (3M to 1Y) are at or near record highs as traders prepare for turbulence amid 'Brexit', US elections, and of course the inevitable 'Fold or No Fold' Fed decisions later in the year.



Last week, the ECB delivered a predominantly constructive policy package. Over the next three days, the BoJ and the Fed will convene too. We expect the Fed to keep the rate unchanged, but also to signal that second rate hike is likely before too long.

VIX: From “Red Zone” to “Dead Zone”

Despite some post-ECB market jitters, risky assets enjoyed a healthy rally and volatility fell sharply on both sides of the Atlantic. The VIX is at ytd lows, suggesting that the equity market is expecting no imminent rate hikes, and is pricing in the recent uptick in U.S. economic data.



S&P 500 Options remain very complacent ahead of The Fed...

The S&P 500 one-week straddle is currently pricing in a +/- 1.5% S&P move for FOMC week; corresponding to S&P 500 breakevens of 1992-2052. The SPX was below the lower breakeven of 1992 last week and last saw the higher end of the breakeven range (2052) on December 30, 2015. The 1.5% straddle price is well below the 11-year average of 1.9% back to January 2005 and a 48th percentile ranking relative to the last year.

We can use S&P 500 digital option pricing to estimate the option markets probability of a given percentage decline over the next month. S&P 500 options were recently pricing in a 3% chance for a -10% market move over the next month; that is one-third of its level on February 11 when the SPX hit its ytd low and is slightly below its median level back to 2005.

But SPX 3m-1y skew levels on the rise

While 1m SPX skew suggests lower uncertainty over the short run, 3m-1y skew has been on the rise.

Exhibit 6 shows that 3m-1y SPX skew levels are all trading near their highs relative to both 1y and 10y histories.

Longer-term hedging demand may continue to increase, as investors move away from the short-term trading mentality that obsessed the market earlier in 2016, with investors now more willing to spend for optionality which covers future rate hikes, potential “Brexit” risks (suggested by a faint bump in the VSTOXX volatility term structure around June), and US election uncertainty.



Peak Oil Price - Saxo Says Downside Risks Dominate Crude Outlook
Tyler D.
03/14/2016 14:21 -0400

Crude oil prices "appear to have reached their peak for now," warns Saxo Group's Ole Hanson as he explains there are several reasons why.

Among the chief concerns putting a damper on Brent prices is an upcoming meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to discuss a potential output freeze, he says. Iran is now saying it will not curb production before it has reached 4 million barrels a day.



Another factor curbing the price of Brent is renewed forward-selling on the back of the rally, which may accelerate if Brent breaks below $39, Hansen says as he sets out the levels and downside risks traders need to watch out for.

[Fenix]

Trump-Endorser Marc Faber Warns "Central Banks Will Create Global Socialism"
Tyler D.
03/14/2016 14:51 -0400

Central banks around the globe are pursuing strategies that will put all financial assets into government hands, Marc Faber explains to CNBC this morning, taking the opportunity to endorse Donald Trump's bid for the U.S. presidency. As CNBC reports, Faber expects that asset buying by global central banks will only increase, even though he believes those policies aren't working to stimulate the economy.

"The central banks aren't interested in what works, they're interested in their own prestige. And they are so deep into it already and it didn't work. They will increase the medicine," said Faber, the publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.



"Eventually, they'll buy all the government bonds; they'll buy all the corporate bonds, all the shares outstanding. Afterwards the housing market goes down, they'll buy all the homes and then the government will own everything."

That's the road to socialism, he ominously concludes.

"I could see a situation where at the end the government owns all the corporations and all the government bonds and then we are back into socialism, into a planning economy,"



"The governments in my view, with their agents the Federal Reserve and other central banks and with the treasury department, they will do anything not to let asset prices go down," said Faber.



"If the stock markets go down, I'm convinced all the central banks will buy stocks. All of them," he said, noting that this is not without precedent, citing Hong Kong's purchase of stocks during the Asian Financial Crisis in the late 1990s.

Faber also took the opportunity to say he wanted Trump to take the White House in the U.S. election later this year, although he noted he's not eligible to vote.

"They basically hate Trump because he's not the party insider," Faber said. "He brings some fresh air into the whole process."



Faber added that he has "great sympathy" for the leading Republican candidate.



"I would vote for him for the simple reason that I think he's the only one that can really defeat Hillary Clinton and I would do anything if I were an American not to get Hillary Clinton as a president, anything."



S&P Clings To Technical Support Despite Oil & Gold Dump
Tyler D.
03/14/2016 16:06 -0400

What could go wrong?



Today was all about the 200-day moving average for the S&P 500...2019.40 was all that mattered...



VIX was slammed every time they lost the 200DMA - and seemed to give up at the close...



Oil roundtripped to EURUSD's Drgahi lows but stocks ignored it on super low volumes...



On the day, The Dow and Nasdaq clung to gains but the rest got hammered into the close - note the algo confusion around the European close (US on DST, EU not)



Energy and Financials lagged on the day...



This is what the end of a short-squeeze looks like (Peabody Energy crashed 36% at its lows - the biggest drop ever for the stock)...



Treasury yields fell on the day (apart from 2Y which was very modestly higher)...the day was divide by the EU close once again



Notably, as CS notes, Treasury options skew shifted back into positive territory for the first time this year (i.e no longer positioning for falling rates)



The USD Index ended the day higher but had a volatile day of building strength and sudden weakness...



The Brazialian Real dumped after news that Rousseff will seek to name Lula as a minister in her new cabinet...



Copper and Silver managed to end unchanged as oil and crude slipped...all slammed at the US equity open



Crude's biggest 1 day drop in a month...



Gold's biggest 2-day drop since July 2015...



What happened the last 2 times it was hit like this...


Goldman: "The S&P 500 Is Overvalued"
Submitted by Tyler D.
03/14/2016 - 17:03

"Operating and adjusted EPS both indicate high S&P 500 valuation. We show the impact of different macro assumptions on our EPS forecast. S&P 500 is highly valued regardless of how investors measure earnings."


Wedbush Warns "A Trump Victory Will Send Stocks Down 50%"
Submitted by Tyler D.
03/14/2016 - 17:21

"If [Trump] sticks to his word and his 3rd grade economics, then we would be in trouble... If Trump becomes President of this country, The S&P will go to 1,000... people are brushing it off but there is absolutely no way that this market and this economy does not get pounded."


JPM Looks At Draghi's "Package," Calls It "Solid," But Underwhelming
Submitted by Tyler D.
03/14/2016 - 18:10

"On the negative side, the forward inflation targets were downgraded substantially, ECB didn’t address the issue of capacity constraints, and the shift in focus away from facilitating further currency depreciation will, in our view, end up being a negative for region’s equity market. Overall, we believe the latest package is far from a game changer."

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