Lunes 28/03/16 Semana del empleo

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LUNES 28 DE MARZO DEL 2016 | 15:41
Dólar retrocede 0,50% y se cotiza en el mercado a S/3,371
Con este resultados, la moneda estadounidense acumula un retroceso de 1,26% en lo que va del año.


El tipo de cambio cerró a la baja el lunes ante un retroceso global del dólar luego de que datos mixtos en Estados Unidos sugirieron que la Reserva Federal podría tomarse su tiempo para elevar gradualmente las tasas de interés este año.


El dólar perdió un 0,50%, a S/3,371 unidades respecto a las S/3,388 unidades del cierre del miércoles.

El mercado cambiario local estuvo cerrado el jueves y viernes por los feriados de Semana Santa. Con el resultado de la jornada, la moneda estadounidense acumula un retroceso de 1,26% en el año.

A nivel global, el índice dólar, que mide el desempeño de la divisa estadounidense contra una cesta de monedas, caía un 0,24%. En ese escenario, los precios del oro subieron y las monedas latinoamericanas se apreciaron contra el billete verde.

En la plaza local, una oferta de dólares de inversores extranjeros "hizo que los bancos activaran el 'stop loss' y vendieran divisas para evitar pérdidas cuando el sol llegó a niveles de 3,330 unidades por dólar", dijo un operador.

Luego la moneda local cedió sus ganancias y operó hasta los S/3,374 debido a una demanda de divisas de inversores institucionales y de algunas empresas, coincidieron agentes del sistema financiero.

[Fenix]

El crudo perdió ayer los 40, que zonas debemos contemplar para más cortos
por Masquetrading •Hace 4 días
Ayer y después del movimiento de las noticias el crudo perdió los 40. Después de varias semanas con inventarios positivos el valor acabó cediendo en lugar de lo que había venido haciendo repetidas veces que era continuar con las subidas. Ya comentamos hace semanas cuando empezó esta última subida que la zona de los 40 debería ser zona de resistencia dura. La “pasada de frenada” en dicho valor vino con el cambio de contrato, por lo que creemos que ahora tocaría profundizar algo en una corrección. Para ello deberá perder zonas claves y hacerlo con volumen corto fuerte para ser creíble o sea que tengamos garantías de continuación. La primera de todas es la que hace unas horas ha parado al precio como es la SMA de 200 en gráfico horario (Simple Moving Average =Media Móvil Simple). El siguiente soporte clave es el Fibonacci 61,8% del último tramo largo previo y que está en los 38,45. Perdido este con volumen corto fuerte se iría como mínimo al Fibonacci 38,2% de toda la subida desde mínimos en los 36,21.


¿Cuáles son los retos de las naciones árabes para ayudar a su población?
por Carlos Moreno •Hace 5 días
La población árabe de Oriente Próximo, África del Norte y el Golfo Pérsico agrupa a un total de 225 millones de habitantes, lo que viene a representar el 3% de la población mundial, pero hay un factor desestabilizador que supone una bomba de relojería para sus economías y es que nada menos que el 70% de su población tiene menos de 25 años, si las economías árabes quieren dar trabajo a todos estos jóvenes necesitarán crear unos 80 millones de puestos de trabajo en los próximos años y para conseguir ese objetivo tendrían que duplicar la tasa de creación de empleo de los Estados Unidos de la floreciente década de los 90. En una región donde el estado de bienestar es prácticamente desconocido, es fácil entender que la contribución del empleo público será ínfima, pero además estas economías carecen de posibilidades para que las grandes empresas puedan crear dicho empleo, por lo que el futuro de la población árabe deberá estar ligado a inculcar a sus jóvenes una mentalidad para desplazarse fuera de su región y desarrollar un mayor espíritu emprendedor.

La nación árabe se va a encontrar con una enorme dificultad para emigrar hacia regiones más prósperas como consecuencia de los recientes atentados integristas, pero también se va a encontrar con la enorme carencia de iniciativa empresarial que tiene su población, únicamente el 4% de su población adulta trabaja en pequeñas empresas o de nueva creación.

¿Pero cuál es el motivo por el que las naciones árabes no crean nuevas empresas?

Por un lado el petróleo, las regiones árabes son absolutamente dependientes de la producción y refino de hidrocarburos al producir más del 30% del petróleo y el 15% del gas mundial. Si eliminásemos las exportaciones de petróleo y sus derivados, el PIB exportado del mundo Árabe se reduciría al de una economía como la de Finlandia con poco más de 5 millones de habitantes. Esta economía basada en la exportación del petróleo ha entorpecido enormemente la iniciativa empresarial, haciendo que los gobiernos no introduzcan las reformas económicas necesarias y creando formas de gobierno donde una sola persona ejerce la autoridad y donde no hay ni una sola regulación para ejercer el poder. De tal manera que las reformas necesarias para que exista una legislación donde los emprendedores puedan prosperar no se han podido llevar a cabo al existir una absoluta falta de derechos, libertad de expresión, tolerancia o acceso a información pública. Muchos de estos gobiernos autocráticos han impedido la iniciativa empresarial porque temen sus aportaciones a la modernización de la economía ya que amenaza la soberanía del monarca.

Otros aspectos que impiden el desarrollo de las sociedades árabes están relacionados con la calidad de la educación y las instituciones culturales, donde muestran una importante falta de desarrollo, a modo de ejemplo comentar un informe de la ONU que desvela que el número de libros traducidos anualmente al árabe en todos los países de la región no alcanzaba ni la quinta parte de los que se traducen al griego en Grecia, que el número de patentes registradas desde 1980 a 2000 en todo el mundo árabe fue menos de la décima parte que Israel (país líder en patentes, pero habitada por una centésima parte de la población árabe), también es importante constatar que de entre las 500 universidades más prestigiosas del Mundo no aparece ninguna de las 200 universidades árabes.

El factor que sin duda tiene mayor influencia en el desarrollo de las economía emprendedora árabe es la situación de la mujer, cuando se quiere medir el potencial de crecimiento de una nación no hay mejor factor que examinar los derechos sociales y la posición de las mujeres, negar a la mujer es privar a un país de talento y reducir exponencialmente las posibilidades de desarrollo y éxito. No hay mal peor que inculcar en las mentes de la mitad de la población que son superiores porque eso disminuirá sus capacidades para aprender y querer actuar, todo esto crea una sociedad poco competitiva fruto de la posición subordinada que tiene la mujer en el mundo árabe.


El USDJPY dentro de un ajuste de mediano plazo ¿hacia dónde se dirige?
por Julian Yosovitch •Hace 1 día
El USDJPY ha perdido importantes posiciones en las últimas semanas, cerrando la semana en los 113.34 yenes.

El mercado se encuentra dentro de un proceso de ajuste de mediano plazo recortando parte de las ganancias acumuladas de todo el bull-market iniciado en 2011 cuando el dólar supo valer 75 yenes y consideramos que las bajas de mediano plazo deberán extenderse con miras de llevar al dólar rumbo a niveles inferiores en torno a los 110 yenes primero y 106.50-106.00 yenes accediendo al 38.2% de fibonacci de todo el avance en cuestión e importante nivel de contención en las próximas semanas para el USDJPY.

Más tarde, con caídas debajo de los 106 yenes implicará una señal de debilidad mayor de mediano plazo abriendo paso a nuevas pérdidas rumbo a los 102-101 yenes, sin descartar una continuidad bajista rumbo a valores más deprimidos para adelante en las próximas semanas.

El mercado se ha recuperado en las últimas semanas aunque aun no muestra aun señales concretas de reversión y por ello permaneceremos con cautela y con chances de que las debilidades se extiendan hacia niveles inferiores y en caso de posibles subas, vemos que el dólar encuentra resistencia en los 114.50-115.00 yenes o potencialmente en los 116.80 yenes, siendo los 120 yenes la resistencia de mediano plazo clave para el USDPY y desde donde las bajas deberán ser retomadas hacia zonas inferiores.

Justamente en una visión de mediano plazo, solo con el quiebre por encima de los 120 yenes las debilidades mencionadas quedaran postergadas y podremos pasar a sugerir por nuevos avances rumbo a los 122.50 yenes e incluso los 125.85 yenes junto a los máximos previos. Veamos…


IBM reacciona y busca un piso ¿Qué resistencias debe superar?
por Julian Yosovitch •Hace 1 día
Las acciones de IBM han recuperado posiciones en las últimas semanas y cierran el viernes en 147.95 dólares.

El bear market iniciado en 2013 ha recortado el 61.8% de fibonacci de toda la suba iniciada en 2008 y si bien la recuperación actual es positiva, aun es insuficiente para especular con un piso definitivo y para ello se requiere ver un quiebre inmediato por encima de los 154-155 dólares, superando el 38.2% de fibonacci de todo el ajuste de largo plazo y tal dato técnico liberara una recuperación adicional hacia los 175-178 dólares en las próximas semanas y meses, accediendo al 61.8% de todo el bear market.

Justamente en una visión de mediano plazo, se requiere la superación de 178 dólares para pensar en un piso definitivo y poder especular con nuevos avances de regreso a los 200 dólares e incluso valores mas ambiciosos para adelante.

Dado que por ahora no queda confirmado un piso, consideramos que deberemos mantener cierta cautela de corto plazo vigilando soportes ante un regreso de las debilidades los cuales se ubican en los 136 dólares o potencialmente en los 129 mientras que los mínimos de 116.90 representan el nivel de contención de mediano y largo plazo para IBM.

Ahora bien, con caídas debajo de los 116.90 dólares, un escenario de ajuste más profundo tomara un protagonismo adicional abriendo paso a una continuidad en el bear market rumbo a los 110-108 dólares e incluso valores mas deprimidos para adelante en los próximos meses.

Consideramos a la suba actual como un factor positivo para especular con avances mayores aunque insistimos que de mediano plazo se requiere la superación de las resistencias mencionadas para habilitar tal escenario de recuperación. Veamos...

[Fenix]

Yahoo! reconociendo soportes y reaccionando al alza ¿Qué resistencias enfrenta?
por Julian Yosovitch •Hace 1 día
Las acciones de Yahoo! (YHOO) cierran la semana en los 34.86 dólares y vemos que la emisora ha mostrado una suba en cinco ondas desde los pisos de 2009 hasta los máximos de 2014 en 52 dólares y desde allí el ajuste profundo hasta los valores actuales.

El ajuste de mediano plazo ha recortado el 61.8% de fibonacci hasta los 25.80 dólares para que desde allí las subas sean reanudadas y tal avance coloca a la emisora junto a importantes resistencias, que de ser quebradas habilitaran subas de mayor peso en las próximas semanas rumbo a valores más ambiciosos para adelante.

En este sentido consideramos que con el quiebre de la zona de máximos actuales de 36.00-36.30 dólares, la acción lograra quebrar escollos importantes liberando una continuidad alcista rumbo a resistencias superiores en torno a los 41.50-42.50 dólares atacando el 61.8% de fibonacci de todo el bear-market. Más tarde, con la superación de tal resistencia podremos pensar en un piso de mayor importancia y liberar alzas adicionales de regreso a los máximos de 52 dólares e incluso valores más ambiciosos para adelante en los próximos meses.

Aun no queda confirmado un piso y para ello se requiebre ver un quiebre inmediato por encima de las resistencias mencionadas y ante un regreso de las bajas deberemos cuidar soportes ubicados en los 32.50-32.00 dólares o potencialmente en los 29.50 dólares, mientras que los mínimos alcanzados en 25.80 representan el nivel de contención de mayor importancia de mediano plazo junto al 61.8% de todo el bull-market iniciado en 2009. Justamente en una visión de mediano plazo, ante caídas directas debajo de los 26.80, implicara una señal de debilidad mayor para las próximas semanas y la acción quedará venerable a extender las perdidas hacia zonas inferiores en torno a los 22.00-21.50 dólares e incluso los 20 dólares.

Insistimos en que vemos positivo al reconocimiento de soportes de mediano plazo junto al 61.8% de toda la suba iniciada en 2009 aunque aun no queda confirmado un piso de mediano plazo y para especular con avances de mayor peso se requiere ver un quiebre por encima de las resistencias propuestas y ante tal escenario, un escenario de recuperación mayor tomara un protagonismo adicional en las próximas semanas. Veamos…


Has The Biggest Of All Bubbles Popped: Central Bank Omnipotence?
03/27/2016 18:00 -0400
Authored by Mark St.Cyr,

Since the initial turmoil began with the onset of what is now referred to as “The great financial crisis,” one strategy has proven more profitable than any other. That strategy? BTFD (buy the f___n’ dip.)

Regardless of what proprietary advice (short of insider trading,) nothing, as well as, nobody has had a track record worthy of comparison. All one has needed to do is, whenever a selloff occurred (as rare as they had been,) when “the dip” presented itself, the only thing to do was to “buy, buy, buy!”

Forget 2/20 management. Forget stock picking. Forget listening to experts, economists, fund managers, et al. You would beat them all over the last 6+ years if you just BTFD, then bought some more. It had been that easy. However, if it was that easy – why didn’t everyone “just do it?” Easy…

A great many (and I put myself squarely in this camp) still believed that the fundamental laws governing free markets and stocks were still at play. No one, and I do mean that as in nobody with a modicum of business acumen thought, let alone believed the extent, as well as, the vast amounts of money printed ex nihilo by the Fed. would go on not only for as long, but also, in the amounts to which it has.

Now, today, some $4,000,000,000,000.00+ (i.e., over 4 TRILLION) later what has all this balance sheet accrual bought? Probably the bubble of all bubbles. The irony? That “bubble” is in the only true asset the Fed. had left. e.g., Confidence in their omnipotence. And it’s beginning to look more like it’s already popped with every passing FOMC meeting. And just as the name “bubble” implies – all it needed was the tiniest of pins to bring it crashing down. And it now appears a 25 basis point rate hike was just tiny enough.

Since the ending of QE in late 2014 one thing about the “markets” has been crystallizing more and more for everyone to see. Even if they try to turn their heads, it can no longer be avoided: without central bank (and now that includes all CB’s) continuous intervention – there is no market. It all falls apart like the house-of-cards that it is.

Again, without central bankers in one form or fashion continuously interjecting their willingness, as well as, openness as to do “whatever it takes” the markets will at first vacillate in place until they relent and plummet in unison causing conciliatory panicked responses from one central banker after another.

However, the responses to these actions or statements as of late have been in a way I believe these monetary bodies not only never considered, but rather, never thought possible.

Not only have they been creating doubt (as in saying one thing then doing the opposite) in their credibility, rather – their dictates are now having the complete opposite responses of their desired market reaction. i.e., Deliver a weaker currency inspired directive? That currency actually spikes upward and running ever higher!

This phenom first presented itself with the grandest of foolish monetary policies brought forth by central banking Keynesian devotees: Negative interest rates. e.g, NIRP.

First it was the European Central Bank (ECB.) Then the Bank of Japan (BoJ.) Sure there have been others, but these are by far the “big players.” The result? Exactly the opposite of what had been anticipated.

“Big bazooka” commentary from Mr. Draghi at the ECB along with “Banzai” styled implementation as witnessed via Mr. Kuroda at the BoJ saying one thing, than doing the exact opposite only a week later, has pushed not only confusion further into the financial markets, but also, sent global currency trades on a roller-coaster ride worthy of having its own theme park.

Both the €uro as well as the ¥en strengthened. And not by little amounts either. The resulting spikes were so sudden, and with such ferocity, the resulting margin calls for those caught within its death grip suddenly found themselves sharing the same experience as those on the fictional planet Alderaan, “as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror – then were silenced.”

You know who was more caught off guard with this move than those with positions on? The central banks themselves. All one needed for proof was the subsequent jawboning from one official after another to state emphatically: “Don’t worry, we got this!” (we think) As they tried desperately to reassure their “markets.”

Again, for proof: all one needs is to remember Mario Draghi’s now infamous mea culpa when replying to whether or not his newest remarks were in reaction to the market’s response, e.g., “No not really. But not—well, of course. (Laughter.) And, It’s been pretty much the same only in different languages from one central banker after the next these past few months.

Yet, the one central bank that has been near impervious to this “credibility” or “omnipotent” issue has been the Federal Reserve. That is to say – until now.

Since the beginning of what is now considered “the zenith of unabashed central bank interventionism” few were willing to speculate, let alone admit, that without the Federal Reserve continuously pumping money in one form or another, while simultaneously keeping interest rates at the zero bound – the markets had no fundamental reason whatsoever to be at these current levels. Period. It was, and still is, a bubble created and encouraged by the central bank. Again – period. End of discussion.

And nowhere has this phenom become more visible and undeniable as made manifest over the last 14+ months with “market” volatility and price movement. Currently, the only direction the “markets” have shown a propensity to go in both momentum, as well as, fury during this period has been – down.

Currently up seems to only happen in response after some jawboning or implied immediate implementation. Where the theme is more mea culpa in nature. Rather, than fortitude or conviction of policy.

In other words: the moment we get up to levels I coined “fortitude central” (i.e., 2050ish SPX) where the policy members begin to show backbone and imply: “Yep, we’re going to start withdrawing accommodation.” The markets begin to reverse in unison. And as soon as it appears the level of 1800ish SPX is about to be breached? A reversal, or better said “capitulation of error” begins to show up (in unison) as one Fed. official after another begins touting backpedaling statements in one form after another. The real issue here?

The “markets” and it’s real players (i.e., HFT’s along with their headline reading algo’s and stop running programs etc., etc.) not only know this. I believe – they now know how to front run it with deadly efficiency. Exacerbating the issue of credibility as well as omnipotence for the Fed. Or, stated differently – the “market” now not only can push the Fed’s hand – It now knows at what level it needs to exert the desired response at will.

This phenom has now become so glaringly obvious even Fed. friendly publications such as Barron’s™ can’t avert from the obvious any longer as shown by their latest article titled, When The Fed’s Bullard Speaks, the Market Listens. All I’ll say is this: If the main stream financial press has finally figured it out – that’s usually your first sign that what ever bubble there was – has either already popped. Or, about too.

But not too worry, after all, I didn’t even mention China and their forthcoming central bank omnipotent policies. Remember, they know how to control and manipulate a market and currency better than anyone. Just ask them. And if you don’t like what they state today? Don’t worry – they’ll change it again any day or minute from now. Again.

But why be of concern? After all, it was the Fed. itself that just reiterated “international developments” is their first cause. So don’t worry. I’m sure they got this. Until 1800ish SPX that is. Then we’ll see just how much confidence to BTFD truly remains.

[Fenix]

Inflation Is Not Risen - It's The Cheapest Easter "Since Lehman"
Submitted by Tyler D.
03/27/2016 - 15:14

As christians remember the fall and rise of Jesus, there is another - perhaps more important to many - rising-and-falling thing to celebrate: Egg prices are the cheapest for Easter since at least 2008...


These Are The Oil Producers That May (Or May Not) Attend Next Month's "Farcical" OPEC Meeting
Tyler D.
03/28/2016 08:11 -0400

The one catalyst most responsible for sending the price of oil from its 13 year lows hit in early February some 50% higher in the following month, has been the recurring rumor about an "imminent" OPEC production freeze meeting which was initially supposed to take place in early March, then on March 20, and now on April 17 (we expect this to be rescheduled shortly as well).

As a reminder, Qatar has invited all OPEC members and major producers from outside the exporting group to attend talks on April 17 on a deal to freeze output at January levels to support the global oil market, Qatar's energy ministry said. "The need has become an urgent matter to bring back balance to the market and recovery to the global economy," the ministry said in the invitation letter.

The ministry had said that around 15 OPEC and non-OPEC producers, accounting for about 73 percent of global oil output, are supporting the initiative. The problem is that all it takes is for one or two member nations to avoid the meeting and thus make any attempt at supply cuts moot.

So here is, according to Reuters, the latest summary of who is, may or won't be attending next month's Doha meeting:



And, as noted previously, should even one oil producing nation snub the meeting it is all for nothing. As Bloomberg explained last week, "The other 11 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have agreed to meet in the Qatari capital on April 17, officials from the respective countries have said. The absence of Iran and Libya, which are determined to restore supplies shuttered by conflict and sanctions, means any accord is unlikely to be effective, according to Commerzbank AG."

"The meeting is turning more and more into a farce,” analysts at Commerzbank led by Eugen Weinberg said in a report. “It is hardly surprising that Libya is not interested in the Doha meeting. Like Iran, it first wants to increase output and then talk about a freeze."

Just don't tell the short squeeze and stop hunting algos.

[Fenix]

Gold Recovers Losses After Overnight "Flash-Crash"
Tyler D.
03/28/2016 09:36 -0400

Amid a post-holiday Asian open, gold futures were flash-crashed as someone decided it was an opportune time to trade over $275 million worth of the precious metal.

Since hitting those China open lows at $1206, gold has rallied back to unchanged near $1223...


Q1 GDP Crashes To 0.6%: Latest Atlanta Fed Estimate
Submitted by Tyler D.
03/28/2016 - 11:30

Earlier today we said that following today's abysmal January spending data revision, "the Atlanta Fed will have no choice but to revise its Q1 "nowcast" to 1.0% or even lower, which would make the first quarter the lowest quarter since the "polar vortex" impacted Q1 of 2015, and the third worst GDP quarter since Q4 2012. It means one-third of already low Q1 GDP growth has just been wiped away."

It was "even lower."


What Consequences? Judge Rules Student Loans Of Broke Lawyers Can Be Cancelled
Tyler D.
03/28/2016 15:55 -0400

Following SCOTUS' decision not to hear a case making it easier to get rid of student debt, and The White House's push to ease student loan 'burdens', WSJ reports a federal judge ruled law-school graduates who file for bankruptcy protection can cancel the debt they racked up while studying for the bar exam.

In an opinion filed Thursday, Judge Carla Craig of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Brooklyn, N.Y., said bar-exam loan debt is “a product of an arm’s-length agreement on commercial terms” and doesn’t fall into the category of student loans that stick with a borrower who files for bankruptcy.



The decision, which is the most thorough recent ruling on the matter, contradicts the widely accepted notion that student loan-related debt can be canceled in bankruptcy only under rare cases of extreme financial hardship.



In her 20-page ruling, Judge Craig said bar-study loans were akin to commercial or consumer loans and weren’t an “educational benefit,” like a scholarship or stipend, and thus could be erased in a bankruptcy case.



The U.S. Supreme Court recently declined to hear a case that could have made it easier to get rid of student loan debt. The White House, however, said last year that it would examine whether it should be easier for student loans to be canceled by bankruptcy, opening the door for student debt made by private lenders to be treated on par with credit-card debt and mortgages.



“We’re starting to chip away at the absolute immunity of student loans from bankruptcy,” said Austin Smith, Ms. Campbell’s lawyer.



A Citibank lawyer declined to comment on the ruling or to say whether the bank plans to appeal.

Judge Craig’s ruling isn’t binding on other courts but may be helpful to other bankruptcy judges with similar disputes before them.

Judge Craig isn’t the first federal judge to take up the issue of whether bar-study loans can be wiped out in bankruptcy. Her ruling conflicts with an April 2010 decision from Alabama Bankruptcy Judge Jack Caddell, who said a University of Alabama School of Law graduate couldn’t cancel a $9,475 bar-study loan.



“We’ve come to a place where student loan debtors are very much backed into a corner,” said Greta LaMountain Biagi, a bankruptcy lawyer in Amherst, Mass. “This judge clearly to me understands that and is in touch with that.”

Perhaps it is time to reconsider the cost-effectiveness of college? Or of adding to the swirling shoal of sharks that are called 'lawyers'? But that would not do in this new age of higher education is "Free-for-all" - when "free" means becoming a debt serf for the rest of your working life unless you hit the lottery.

Once again - a poor outcome from a seemingly-easy decision (suggested by, and made easy by government) is made consequence-free by America's government (on behalf of US taxpayers). One wonders if the law graduates in question should receive "participation trophies" also as they enter the workforce (as Baristas).

[Fenix]

2015 Ends With a Stratospheric P/E Multiple Of 23x
Submitted by Tyler D.
03/28/2016 - 17:38

What if Buffett, and Factset, and the SEC (and of course this website) are right and GAAP is the proper way of looking at earnings? Then we have a big problem, because instead of the 118.0 in 2015 non-GAAP S&P earnings, which translate into a P/E multiple of 17.3x as of today's 2037 market close, the real, GAAP EPS of just 88.9 for the full year 2015 means the P/E multiple is now a gargantuan 22.9x!



It's Official: The Oil Surge Was Driven By The Biggest Short-Squeeze Ever
Tyler D.
03/28/2016 17:51 -0400


Two months ago, just before crude dropped to 13 year lows, we warned oil traders that there is "a constant short squeeze threat" because "oil shorts are at all-time highs", adding that "we have seen extreme short positioning building up in the oil futures market. The quantity of short positions opened is at an all-time high for Brent, and still high for WTI futures."

We also warned that "a positive surprise could happen quite sharply, as short positions are likely to be squeezed by a profit-taking move. On WTI, the in-the-money short positions are really dominating at the front end of the curve while out-of-the-money long positions are dominating at the long end of the curve: the front end of oil curve could thus be more exposed to some profit-taking."

It was, and just a few days later, the algos took this warning to heart and, courtesy of the most recurring headline (that of a "farcical" oil production freeze) as a recurring catalyst, unleashed an historic short squeeze. Actually make that a record short squeeze.

Wait, that's impossible: surely it was more than just shorts covering and oil rose because actual longs were piling in, one could say.

One would be wrong, and it is now official: as crude soared 50% since Feb. 11, Bloomberg writes, the number of bets on increased prices has barely budged. "Instead, the upward pressure on prices appears to have come from traders cashing out of bearish wagers at an unprecedented pace. The liquidation of short positions during the last seven weeks covered by data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission was the largest on record."

"The rally has come from shorts getting scared out of their positions, and you’re not seeing a lot of money coming in on the long side," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York hedge fund focused on energy. "It really calls into question the fortitude and staying power of the rally."

The details: "short positions on West Texas Intermediate crude, or bets that prices will fall, have dropped by 131,617 contracts since Feb. 2, the biggest liquidation in CFTC data going back a decade. To close out a bearish position, traders buy back futures and options, putting upward pressure on prices. In the same period, bullish wagers fell by 971. In the past 10 years, there have been only two other seven-week short-covering streaks, CFTC data show. The first started in September 2009 and the second in December 2012. Both were much smaller than the recent one and were accompanied by oil rallies."



It gets better: as we showed previously, the irony is that as oil futures shorts were squeezed out, ETF longs actually declined instead of growing as absolutely nobody - except those who have to buy-in - believes this quote-unquote rally.



Bloomberg notes that the rebound faltered a day after WTI prices touched a four-month high of $41.45 a barrel on March 22, tumbling 4 percent in New York after government data showed U.S. crude supplies surged the prior week to the highest level since 1930.

Perhaps there are no more shorts left to squeeze, in which case watch out to the downside: "When energy markets get loaded to one side of the boat like that, you can have vicious reversals," said Kilduff. And vice versa.

[Fenix]

U.S. Lifted The Crude Oil Export Ban, And Exports Went... Down
03/28/2016 18:05 -0400
Submitted by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

Just over three months after the authorities lifted the four-decade ban on crude oil exports, the U.S. has actually exported less this year than it did over the same period the year before, when the ban was still in place.

According to Clipper Data market intelligence cited by the Financial Times, we’ve seen a 5 percent decline in U.S. crude oil export volumes since the beginning of this year. The data suggests that on average we are exporting (waterborne) 325,000 barrels per day now, compared to 342,000 barrels per day during the first months of 2015.

And there’s no official data yet—not since the beginning of this year, when the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that during the week ending 22 January, the U.S. had exported just shy of 400,000 barrels of oil, which again was 25 percent less than what was exported for the same week in 2014.

An oil tanker that reached a French port in January was the first post-ban delivery of U.S. crude oil, but things haven’t really picked up pace since then.

January’s cargoes, totaling about 11.3 million barrels, marked a 7 percent decline from U.S. crude exports in December, according to data by the U.S. Census Bureau. Shipments during January went to Curacao and France, in addition to Canada, the primary destination. The total number of tankers that have set sail with U.S. crude oil will not be known until comprehensive data on February’s shipments is released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The immediate beneficiaries of the ban suspension are gas and oil companies such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil—among the most tireless lobbyers against the ban—and oil trading giants such as Vitol Group BV and Trafigura Ltd Pet.

Europe and Asia are flooded with oil from Russia and the Middle East, though the first two shipments to leave the U.S. post-export ban went to Europe: one to Germany and the other to France, to be used in a refinery in Switzerland. Dutch media outlets reported in January that a tanker from Houston had reached Rotterdam port, but this remains just a drop in the global export bucket.

In Asia, even China’s state-run Sinopec—the world’s second-largest refiner—has imported a consignment of U.S. oil, according to a Reuters source. Japan's Cosmo Oil was the first Asian buyer of U.S. oil, purchasing some 300,000 barrels of U.S. crude in mid-January, which will be delivered to its refineries in mid-April.

The very first South American country that will import U.S. crude oil is Venezuela. In early February, Venezuela’s state-run oil company PDVSA imported a 550,000-barrel cargo of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) through its U.S.-based Citgo Petroleum affiliate. Venezuela started importing foreign crudes in 2014 amid a fall in its own production - buying mostly Angolan and Nigerian light grades.

WTI is also expected to be exported to Israel, where Swiss commodities house Trafigura will ship some 700,000 barrels. Atlantic Trading & Marketing, the U.S. trading unit of French Total SA, has been planning an export cargo of U.S. crude from Cushing.

Also, earlier this month, Exxon became the first U.S. oil company to export U.S. crude, sending a tanker from Texas to a refinery it owns in Italy.

However, storage is now at the highest level in at least a decade. U.S., crude storage levels hit 487 million barrels in early November, closing in on the 80-year high of 518 million barrels in the last week of February. According to the EIA, about 60 percent of the U.S. working storage capacity is filled.

Globally, the picture isn’t much better, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) saying that 1 billion barrels were added to storage in 2015 alone. OPEC has reported that crude oil stockpiles in OECD countries currently exceed the running five-year average by 210 million barrels.

Deutsche Bank: "We Expect The S&P To Be Between 1925 To 2100 Until The Election"
Tyler D.
03/28/2016 18:52 -0400


Deutsche Bank may have gotten the corporate bond QE from the ECB that it so desired (even if it means another drop in negative rates) even if that did not help its stock rebound anywhere near to pre-crash levels, and its economist department may be gripped by a bout of raging schizhophrenia as erstwile permabull Joa LaVorgna is now one of the market's bigger bears contrasted with super optimistic DB strategist Torsten Slok (who is seemingly unaware of what his year end bonus was) but that doesn't prevent the bank from having a very outlook of where the market will be come the November general election, namely "range bound between 1925 to 2100."

Here is the latest outlook from DB's strategist David Bianco

We expect the S&P 500 to be range bound between 1925 to 2100 until after the US general election. We do not expect the S&P to fall back into correction territory as a double-dip correction already happened and it would likely take clear signs of an impending US recession or a new global shock to cause renewed investor panic.



While April into May is usually a strong period for S&P 500 performance, we think upside is capped given that 1Q S&P EPS will be down y/y and likely sequentially, Fed speak is likely to be more hawkish especially upon further market gains, Brexit vote risk, and the usual summer softness especially given Presidential campaign headline and geopolitical risks.



We are more comfortable that the dollar will not surge nea -term given the Fed lowered its 2016-2017 rate forecasts and the ECB and others acknowledge the limited benefits of negative interest rates and currency devaluation. However, we do not expect the dollar to fall as nothing like the Plaza Accord of 1985 has occurred. Moreover, we doubt a strong rebound in commodity prices.



If the S&P 500 doesn’t reach a new low, then Feb 11 2016 marks the trough of this market correction. During this double dip correction, S&P was sold off -14.2% from May 21 2015 to Feb 11 2016 (183 trading days). It has been 28 trading days since the market trough, this compares to 119 average trading days between 5%+ S&P dips since 1960. This is supportive, but summer and fall are often weaker than usual in election years.


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What is unsaid is that if DB's forecast is just a little too optimistic, and if stocks indeed proceed to tumble, guess which European bank will be scrambling to get a bailout by a very unhappy German taxpayer...