14:42 RBC Capital eleva su previsión sobre el oro para 2016
RBC Capital ha elevado su previsión para la onza de oro en 2016 a 1.250 dólares frente los 1.150 dólares de la previsión anterior.
15:22 EE.UU. necesita un crecimiento de productividad más rápido
Jason Furman, presidente del CEA
Jason Furman, presidente del Consejo de Consejeros Económicos de EE.UU. señala que el país necesita un crecimiento de productividad más rápido para apoyar los salarios. Añade:
- Espero que el crecimiento salarial sea debido a bajo nivel de desempleo.
- La disminución del desempleo es el sello de la recuperación.
- La política fiscal expansiva moderada es apropiada.
- Necesitamos que China prometa devaluaciones competitivas.
- No hay razones económicas para un Brexit.
15:51 Escenario actual de los principales pares de divisas
Según United Overseas Bank
Euro/dólar: Neutral. Probablemente se mantendrá en el rango 1,1330/1,1495.
Libra/dólar: Neutral. El riesgo bajista se ha incrementado.
AUD/USD: Neutral. El pull-back podría extenderse hacia los 0,7475/80.
NZD/USD: Neutral. En el rango 0,6720/0,6930.
USD/JPY: Bajista. Significativo soporte en 106,50.
16:03 Se acelera la compra de bonos por parte del BCE
El BCE, dentro de su programa de compra de activos QE, adquirió la semana pasada bonos soberanos por valor de 18.819 millones de euros frente los 8.759 millones del mismo periodo del año anterior.
En total el BCE ha comprado bonos soberanos por 166.800 millones de euros frente los 165.800 millones anterior.
16:52 Algunos productores de petróleo rehusan recortar la producción
Según fuentes cercanas al gobierno de Argelia
Una fuente cercana al gobierno argelino afirma que algunos productores rehusan recortar la producción de petróleo. Recordemos:
- Los productores se reunirán en Doha el próximo 17 de mayor para congelar o recortar la producción.
- Rusia dice que no recortará la producción.
- Irak está produciendo al mayor nivel de su historia.
- El petróleo sube un 1,29% a 42,48 dólares barril brent.
Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
75 mensajes
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Re: Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
por Fenix » Lun Abr 11, 2016 7:02 pm
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
por Fenix » Lun Abr 11, 2016 7:04 pm
El cambio climático podría poner en riesgo el 16,9% de los activos financieros del planeta
Carlos Montero
Lunes, 11 de Abril del 2016 - 17:15:00
Se acerca el verano y cada vez escucho más conversaciones recordando el de 2015, el año más caluroso de la historia según los datos registrados. Hay cierto “temor” a que este año puede ser aún más cálido. Y es que el calentamiento global es una realidad.
Un hecho del que por ahora solo estamos viendo sus efectos térmicos pero que tendrá enormes repercusiones financieras en el futuro. Según un nuevo estudio recientemente publicado por el Instituto de Investigación Grantham sobre el Cambio Climático y el Medio Ambiente, activos financieros por un total de 2,5 billones de dólares (millón de millones) podrían estar en riesgo por el cambio climático. Se basan en el supuesto de una subida de la temperatura promedio de 2,5º C para el año 2.100.
Pero el efecto económico puede ser aún mucho mayor. Según los autores, dada las incertidumbres inherentes en las estimaciones de riesgo, existe un 1% de probabilidad de que un calentamiento de 2,5 grados pueda poner en riesgo al 16,9% de los activos financieros globales, lo que es un total de 24 billones de dólares.
Simon Dietz, autor principal del estudio ha dicho en un comunicado de prensa que “nuestros resultados pueden sorprender a los inversores, pero no van a sorprender a muchos economistas que trabajan sobre el cambio climático, ya que los modelos económicos que se han elaborado en los últimos años han generado estimaciones cada vez más pesimistas de los impactos del calentamiento global en el crecimiento económico futuro”.
El valor de los activos financieros podría verse afectado por el cambio climático a través de una serie de factores diferentes como “eventos climáticos extremos” y una reducción de la productividad laboral y salarial.
Alex Browen, director de investigación del Instituto Grantham sobre el Cambio Climático y el Medio Ambiente, dijo a la CNBC en una entrevista: “Un buen ejemplo de cómo el cambio climático puede afectar al capital a través de los fenómenos meteorológicos extremos es a través de la destrucción de edificios y estructuras en las tormentas”.
Añadió que: “La productividad humana no parece verse afectado por temperaturas fuera de los rangos normales ya que las personas se aclimatan”.
Simon Dietz dijo: “Cuando se tiene en cuenta el impacto financiero de los esfuerzos para reducir las emisiones, todavía encontramos que es superior el valor de los activos afectados en caso de que se fracase en ese esfuerzo”.
Un gran número de países (195) acordaron tomar todas las medidas necesarias para que el calentamiento global quede muy por debajo de los dos grados centígrados.
Dietz añadió que aunque la estimación realizada por su equipo es la más completa hasta la fecha “hay enormes incertidumbres y dificultades en la realización de los modelos económicos del cambio climático, por lo que debe ser visto como una de las primeras palabras sobre el tema, no las últimas”.
Lacartadelabolsa
Escenario tras los detalles de las actas últimas reuniones de la Reserva Federal y el BCE
por Observatorio del Inversor de Andbank •Hace 8 horas
Tras las Actas de los bancos centrales
Semana en la que hemos conocido más detalles de las últimas reuniones de la Reserva Federal y el BCE
•Poca información desde las Actas de la FED, con la opinión generalizada sobre la resistencia de la economía americana pero sin consenso sobre la mejora de los precios. «Varios se opusieron a la subida en abril aunque otros la apoyaban». Y, si nos ceñimos a los últimas declaraciones de varios miembros de la FED, la dispersión de visiones es la pauta. Kaplan apoyando próximos movimientos: «se acerca el periodo en el que se pueden subir de nuevo los tipos»; «ser cauto no significa quedarse quieto». Bullard que «podría respaldar subidas de tipos si mejoran las expectativas de precios». Y Mester sin prisas con una inflación baja en 2016 y moviéndose gradualmente hacia el 2% en los próximos años. Precios como variable fundamental a seguir, con datos la próxima semana.
•Falta de consenso en el seno de la FED que se traduce en unos implícitos que sólo descuentan probabilidad de subidas superiores al 50% para diciembre y dólar a la baja, con fuerte retroceso de las posiciones largas en la divisa. Dólar con valor pero sin catalizadores inmediatos.
•Mientras, relativa unanimidad en el mensaje del BCE. Amplio acuerdo con las nuevas subastas de liquidez (LTROs), apoyo de la mayoría en el incremento del programa de compras mensuales (+20.000 mill. de euros/mes) y coincidencia casi absoluta en la rebaja del tipo de facilidad de depósito (-10 p.b.). Tienen margen de maniobra para futuras rebajas, pero limitado y reconociendo que un recorte adicional puede exacerbar aún más la volatilidad y desestabilizar al sector financiero. Sin prisa a la hora de mantener los tipos bajos, incluso más allá del horizonte de compras. No bajarán más los tipos, pero estos parecen llamados a estar en niveles bajos cierto tiempo. ¿Y la visión macro? Preocupa el crecimiento a nivel global y el incremento de la aversión al riesgo en los mercados globales.(como en la FED), y consideran e riesgo de deflación todavía muy bajo, esperando que repunte los precios hacia finales de año.
Imagen
•Atentos a la evolución del crudo, al alza, tras declaraciones de Kuwait de que podría alcanzarse un acuerdo el próximo 17 de abril de congelar la producción sin el compromiso de Irán algo inicialmente descartado por Arabia Saudí. Apoyo además desde un dato de inventarios americanos a la baja. Volatilidad pre-reunión no descartable, con un precio objetivo corporativo en el rango 35-45 USD/barril.
¿Mejoran los datos? Si no lo hacen los datos, al menos sí las sorpresas macro, de forma clara en EE UU y emergentes, con mayor timidez pero también rebotando en Europa (bien el consumo, incierto el dibujo industrial) y con Japón acumulando decepciones. Todo ello tras un primer trimestre débil. En palabras de Lagarde del FMI: bajo crecimiento, fragilidad del mismo y riesgos crecientes.
Renta Variable El Momentum de revisiones comienza a sacudirse el pesimismo antes de resultados. La vuelta de previsiones será más agresiva en Europa
•Los analistas comienzan a corregir su exceso de negatividad en lo que beneficio por acción esperado se refiere, tanto en Estados Unidos como en Europa.
•Este trimestre seguirá siendo de caída de beneficios para el S&P 500, si bien parece que al igual que el precio, los analistas van ajustando sus previsiones hacía crecimientos planos.
•En cambio en Europa, la rebaja tan pronunciada de expectativas desde el cuarto trimestre del año pasado comienza a corregirse, al menos en su dato más nervioso (las revisiones de 3 meses), caso de acompañar al mercado americano en la corrección del pesimismo en las expectativas, cabe esperar también mayor virulencia en la vuelta.
•Esto, unido a la perspectiva técnica de ambos índices, con el relativo SX5E/SPX en clara sobreventa, nos da un punto de entrada dulce para apostar por el largo Europa-corto USA en la semana previa al inicio de presentación de resultados del 1Q16.
•La divergencia de políticas monetarias y un EURUSD cerca del 1,15 nos da apoyo a la idea también desde el punto de vista más macro.
Los inversores esperanzados ante el inicio de la temporada de resultados
El Eurostoxx 50 sube con alzas cercanas al medio punto porcentual
Lunes, 11 de Abril del 2016 - 17:43:15
Jornada de menos a más en las bolsas europeas que finalmente cierran con alzas cercanas al medio punto porcentual, en una sesión de escasas referencias macroeconómicas y en la que el inicio de la temporada de resultados en EE.UU. ha sido el principal foco de atención inversora.
La jornada comenzaba con un cierre mixto en las bolsas asiáticas y la publicación de los datos de inflación en China que arrojaron en marzo una subida anual del 2,3%. Los precios a la producción por su parte caían un 4,3% anual. En Japón se publicaba el dato de pedidos de fábrica con una caída del 9,2% en febrero frente -12,0% esperado.
Las bolsas europeas cotizaban en preapertura con moderados descensos. Esas caídas se confirmaron en los primeros minutos de contratación. El Eurostoxx 50 abría con descensos del medio punto porcentual. Sin embargo, tras esa débil apertura, el dinero volvió a aparecer en el mercado, y poco a poco los selectivos de valores del viejo continente empezaron a recuperar posiciones hasta alcanzar subidas cercanas al punto porcentual tras el dato de producciíon industrial italiana a las 10:00.
Esta mejora se justificaba en parte por las informaciones que apuntaban a que el acuerdo entre Grecia y sus acreedores estaba cercano. Este ha sido un motivo de incertidumbre en los últimos días, desde las filtraciones que sugerían desacuerdos entre el FMI y la zona euro.
Pocos más datos de importancia en la jornada, que como decíamos tendrá al inicio de temporada de resultados del primer trimestre del año como principal catalizador en el corto plazo.
Los analistas de M&G Valores realizan un interesante análisis de situación sobre este hecho que publicamos en este cierre de mercado:
De acuerdo a los datos de Standard & Poor’s el BPA de las compañías del S&P 500 ha caído en 2015 por primera vez desde el final de la crisis en 2009, pasando de los $113,02 en 2014 a los $104,15 en 2015. Las previsiones bottom-up de los analistas de compañías, sin embargo, no prevén que esto sea el inicio de una recesión prolongada de los beneficios.
La tesis principal sigue siendo que la caída se debe fundamentalmente a los sectores de energía y materias primas pero que en general el crecimiento se mantiene en el resto de sectores. De acuerdo con esas estimaciones el punto mínimo de esta caída de los beneficios se va a producir en el 1º trimestre de 2016 y a partir de ahí volveremos a registrar tasas de crecimiento positivas. Para el conjunto de 2016 se estima un crecimiento del BPA del 13% y para el 2017 del 15% hasta los $135,96.
Si aplicamos un PER de 18x, y siempre que esas previsiones se cumplieran, obtendríamos un precio objetivo para el S&P 500 a finales de 2016 y 2017 de 2.126 (+4% respecto a hoy) y 2.447 (+20%) respectivamente.
Europa, entre el sector bancario y la deflación.
La permanente decepción de los beneficios empresariales en Europa es una característica diferencial en el actual ciclo. En los últimos años de forma repetida los analistas anticipaban una sólida recuperación de los beneficios que no acaba de producirse. El año 2015 no ha sido una excepción y las previsiones iniciales de crecimiento del 10% han acabado en nada.
El año 2016 se presenta con grandes incertidumbre y modestas previsiones de crecimiento, siendo a partir de 2017 cuando los analistas vuelven a proyectar tasas superiores al 10%. En este sentido las expectativas generales para las grandes empresas europeas no son muy diferentes a las norteamericanas, por lo que no se justificaría un comportamiento muy divergente de sus bolsas como el que estamos viendo en los últimos días. La revisión a la baja de las estimaciones de beneficios para 2016 ha sido muy intensa coincidiendo con la fase correctiva de los últimos meses y creemos que estaría ya agotándose.
El entorno deflacionista que se vive en Europa es un factor muy negativo que explica al menos en parte el escaso crecimiento de los beneficios en muchos sectores. Tras el fracaso del QE de 2015 en conseguir una mejora de las expectativas de inflación, los mercados han acogido los nuevos anuncios con bastante escepticismo. En particular el sector bancario ha vuelto a los mínimos de febrero perdiendo todo lo ganado en las semanas previas al anuncio del BCE. La estabilización del sector es fundamental para evitar la continuidad del proceso bajista del mercado en los últimos meses.
En general creemos que las bolsas europeas han corregido los excesos de las subidas de la primera parte de 2015 y ahora están en niveles razonables de valoración y fuertes soportes técnicos por lo que esperamos que tiendan a estabilizarse en los próximos meses en línea con el tono de consolidación que muestra la bolsa americana desde hace tiempo.
Carlos Montero
Lunes, 11 de Abril del 2016 - 17:15:00
Se acerca el verano y cada vez escucho más conversaciones recordando el de 2015, el año más caluroso de la historia según los datos registrados. Hay cierto “temor” a que este año puede ser aún más cálido. Y es que el calentamiento global es una realidad.
Un hecho del que por ahora solo estamos viendo sus efectos térmicos pero que tendrá enormes repercusiones financieras en el futuro. Según un nuevo estudio recientemente publicado por el Instituto de Investigación Grantham sobre el Cambio Climático y el Medio Ambiente, activos financieros por un total de 2,5 billones de dólares (millón de millones) podrían estar en riesgo por el cambio climático. Se basan en el supuesto de una subida de la temperatura promedio de 2,5º C para el año 2.100.
Pero el efecto económico puede ser aún mucho mayor. Según los autores, dada las incertidumbres inherentes en las estimaciones de riesgo, existe un 1% de probabilidad de que un calentamiento de 2,5 grados pueda poner en riesgo al 16,9% de los activos financieros globales, lo que es un total de 24 billones de dólares.
Simon Dietz, autor principal del estudio ha dicho en un comunicado de prensa que “nuestros resultados pueden sorprender a los inversores, pero no van a sorprender a muchos economistas que trabajan sobre el cambio climático, ya que los modelos económicos que se han elaborado en los últimos años han generado estimaciones cada vez más pesimistas de los impactos del calentamiento global en el crecimiento económico futuro”.
El valor de los activos financieros podría verse afectado por el cambio climático a través de una serie de factores diferentes como “eventos climáticos extremos” y una reducción de la productividad laboral y salarial.
Alex Browen, director de investigación del Instituto Grantham sobre el Cambio Climático y el Medio Ambiente, dijo a la CNBC en una entrevista: “Un buen ejemplo de cómo el cambio climático puede afectar al capital a través de los fenómenos meteorológicos extremos es a través de la destrucción de edificios y estructuras en las tormentas”.
Añadió que: “La productividad humana no parece verse afectado por temperaturas fuera de los rangos normales ya que las personas se aclimatan”.
Simon Dietz dijo: “Cuando se tiene en cuenta el impacto financiero de los esfuerzos para reducir las emisiones, todavía encontramos que es superior el valor de los activos afectados en caso de que se fracase en ese esfuerzo”.
Un gran número de países (195) acordaron tomar todas las medidas necesarias para que el calentamiento global quede muy por debajo de los dos grados centígrados.
Dietz añadió que aunque la estimación realizada por su equipo es la más completa hasta la fecha “hay enormes incertidumbres y dificultades en la realización de los modelos económicos del cambio climático, por lo que debe ser visto como una de las primeras palabras sobre el tema, no las últimas”.
Lacartadelabolsa
Escenario tras los detalles de las actas últimas reuniones de la Reserva Federal y el BCE
por Observatorio del Inversor de Andbank •Hace 8 horas
Tras las Actas de los bancos centrales
Semana en la que hemos conocido más detalles de las últimas reuniones de la Reserva Federal y el BCE
•Poca información desde las Actas de la FED, con la opinión generalizada sobre la resistencia de la economía americana pero sin consenso sobre la mejora de los precios. «Varios se opusieron a la subida en abril aunque otros la apoyaban». Y, si nos ceñimos a los últimas declaraciones de varios miembros de la FED, la dispersión de visiones es la pauta. Kaplan apoyando próximos movimientos: «se acerca el periodo en el que se pueden subir de nuevo los tipos»; «ser cauto no significa quedarse quieto». Bullard que «podría respaldar subidas de tipos si mejoran las expectativas de precios». Y Mester sin prisas con una inflación baja en 2016 y moviéndose gradualmente hacia el 2% en los próximos años. Precios como variable fundamental a seguir, con datos la próxima semana.
•Falta de consenso en el seno de la FED que se traduce en unos implícitos que sólo descuentan probabilidad de subidas superiores al 50% para diciembre y dólar a la baja, con fuerte retroceso de las posiciones largas en la divisa. Dólar con valor pero sin catalizadores inmediatos.
•Mientras, relativa unanimidad en el mensaje del BCE. Amplio acuerdo con las nuevas subastas de liquidez (LTROs), apoyo de la mayoría en el incremento del programa de compras mensuales (+20.000 mill. de euros/mes) y coincidencia casi absoluta en la rebaja del tipo de facilidad de depósito (-10 p.b.). Tienen margen de maniobra para futuras rebajas, pero limitado y reconociendo que un recorte adicional puede exacerbar aún más la volatilidad y desestabilizar al sector financiero. Sin prisa a la hora de mantener los tipos bajos, incluso más allá del horizonte de compras. No bajarán más los tipos, pero estos parecen llamados a estar en niveles bajos cierto tiempo. ¿Y la visión macro? Preocupa el crecimiento a nivel global y el incremento de la aversión al riesgo en los mercados globales.(como en la FED), y consideran e riesgo de deflación todavía muy bajo, esperando que repunte los precios hacia finales de año.
Imagen
•Atentos a la evolución del crudo, al alza, tras declaraciones de Kuwait de que podría alcanzarse un acuerdo el próximo 17 de abril de congelar la producción sin el compromiso de Irán algo inicialmente descartado por Arabia Saudí. Apoyo además desde un dato de inventarios americanos a la baja. Volatilidad pre-reunión no descartable, con un precio objetivo corporativo en el rango 35-45 USD/barril.
¿Mejoran los datos? Si no lo hacen los datos, al menos sí las sorpresas macro, de forma clara en EE UU y emergentes, con mayor timidez pero también rebotando en Europa (bien el consumo, incierto el dibujo industrial) y con Japón acumulando decepciones. Todo ello tras un primer trimestre débil. En palabras de Lagarde del FMI: bajo crecimiento, fragilidad del mismo y riesgos crecientes.
Renta Variable El Momentum de revisiones comienza a sacudirse el pesimismo antes de resultados. La vuelta de previsiones será más agresiva en Europa
•Los analistas comienzan a corregir su exceso de negatividad en lo que beneficio por acción esperado se refiere, tanto en Estados Unidos como en Europa.
•Este trimestre seguirá siendo de caída de beneficios para el S&P 500, si bien parece que al igual que el precio, los analistas van ajustando sus previsiones hacía crecimientos planos.
•En cambio en Europa, la rebaja tan pronunciada de expectativas desde el cuarto trimestre del año pasado comienza a corregirse, al menos en su dato más nervioso (las revisiones de 3 meses), caso de acompañar al mercado americano en la corrección del pesimismo en las expectativas, cabe esperar también mayor virulencia en la vuelta.
•Esto, unido a la perspectiva técnica de ambos índices, con el relativo SX5E/SPX en clara sobreventa, nos da un punto de entrada dulce para apostar por el largo Europa-corto USA en la semana previa al inicio de presentación de resultados del 1Q16.
•La divergencia de políticas monetarias y un EURUSD cerca del 1,15 nos da apoyo a la idea también desde el punto de vista más macro.
Los inversores esperanzados ante el inicio de la temporada de resultados
El Eurostoxx 50 sube con alzas cercanas al medio punto porcentual
Lunes, 11 de Abril del 2016 - 17:43:15
Jornada de menos a más en las bolsas europeas que finalmente cierran con alzas cercanas al medio punto porcentual, en una sesión de escasas referencias macroeconómicas y en la que el inicio de la temporada de resultados en EE.UU. ha sido el principal foco de atención inversora.
La jornada comenzaba con un cierre mixto en las bolsas asiáticas y la publicación de los datos de inflación en China que arrojaron en marzo una subida anual del 2,3%. Los precios a la producción por su parte caían un 4,3% anual. En Japón se publicaba el dato de pedidos de fábrica con una caída del 9,2% en febrero frente -12,0% esperado.
Las bolsas europeas cotizaban en preapertura con moderados descensos. Esas caídas se confirmaron en los primeros minutos de contratación. El Eurostoxx 50 abría con descensos del medio punto porcentual. Sin embargo, tras esa débil apertura, el dinero volvió a aparecer en el mercado, y poco a poco los selectivos de valores del viejo continente empezaron a recuperar posiciones hasta alcanzar subidas cercanas al punto porcentual tras el dato de producciíon industrial italiana a las 10:00.
Esta mejora se justificaba en parte por las informaciones que apuntaban a que el acuerdo entre Grecia y sus acreedores estaba cercano. Este ha sido un motivo de incertidumbre en los últimos días, desde las filtraciones que sugerían desacuerdos entre el FMI y la zona euro.
Pocos más datos de importancia en la jornada, que como decíamos tendrá al inicio de temporada de resultados del primer trimestre del año como principal catalizador en el corto plazo.
Los analistas de M&G Valores realizan un interesante análisis de situación sobre este hecho que publicamos en este cierre de mercado:
De acuerdo a los datos de Standard & Poor’s el BPA de las compañías del S&P 500 ha caído en 2015 por primera vez desde el final de la crisis en 2009, pasando de los $113,02 en 2014 a los $104,15 en 2015. Las previsiones bottom-up de los analistas de compañías, sin embargo, no prevén que esto sea el inicio de una recesión prolongada de los beneficios.
La tesis principal sigue siendo que la caída se debe fundamentalmente a los sectores de energía y materias primas pero que en general el crecimiento se mantiene en el resto de sectores. De acuerdo con esas estimaciones el punto mínimo de esta caída de los beneficios se va a producir en el 1º trimestre de 2016 y a partir de ahí volveremos a registrar tasas de crecimiento positivas. Para el conjunto de 2016 se estima un crecimiento del BPA del 13% y para el 2017 del 15% hasta los $135,96.
Si aplicamos un PER de 18x, y siempre que esas previsiones se cumplieran, obtendríamos un precio objetivo para el S&P 500 a finales de 2016 y 2017 de 2.126 (+4% respecto a hoy) y 2.447 (+20%) respectivamente.
Europa, entre el sector bancario y la deflación.
La permanente decepción de los beneficios empresariales en Europa es una característica diferencial en el actual ciclo. En los últimos años de forma repetida los analistas anticipaban una sólida recuperación de los beneficios que no acaba de producirse. El año 2015 no ha sido una excepción y las previsiones iniciales de crecimiento del 10% han acabado en nada.
El año 2016 se presenta con grandes incertidumbre y modestas previsiones de crecimiento, siendo a partir de 2017 cuando los analistas vuelven a proyectar tasas superiores al 10%. En este sentido las expectativas generales para las grandes empresas europeas no son muy diferentes a las norteamericanas, por lo que no se justificaría un comportamiento muy divergente de sus bolsas como el que estamos viendo en los últimos días. La revisión a la baja de las estimaciones de beneficios para 2016 ha sido muy intensa coincidiendo con la fase correctiva de los últimos meses y creemos que estaría ya agotándose.
El entorno deflacionista que se vive en Europa es un factor muy negativo que explica al menos en parte el escaso crecimiento de los beneficios en muchos sectores. Tras el fracaso del QE de 2015 en conseguir una mejora de las expectativas de inflación, los mercados han acogido los nuevos anuncios con bastante escepticismo. En particular el sector bancario ha vuelto a los mínimos de febrero perdiendo todo lo ganado en las semanas previas al anuncio del BCE. La estabilización del sector es fundamental para evitar la continuidad del proceso bajista del mercado en los últimos meses.
En general creemos que las bolsas europeas han corregido los excesos de las subidas de la primera parte de 2015 y ahora están en niveles razonables de valoración y fuertes soportes técnicos por lo que esperamos que tiendan a estabilizarse en los próximos meses en línea con el tono de consolidación que muestra la bolsa americana desde hace tiempo.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
por Fenix » Lun Abr 11, 2016 7:07 pm
Carteras de Renta 4 Banco
Lunes, 11 de Abril del 2016 - 18:00
Cartera de Estados Unidos mantenemos: Amazon (10%), American Express (10%), Baxter International (10%), Boeing (10%), Colgate Palmolive (10%), Disney (10%), Mastercard (10%), Metlife (10%), Mead Johnson Nutrition, (10%) y Monsanto (10%).
Análisis de los activos de riesgo
Lunes, 11 de Abril del 2016 - 18:30:00
Seguro que al leer el título han pensado inmediatamente en las bolsas. Pero, ¿realmente es el activo financiero con mayor riesgo? Los bancos centrales son los únicos que pueden responder a esta cuestión. Al menos a corto plazo…
¿Y las bolsas? Sigo pensando que, pese al renovado reciente castigo, se enfrentan a un escenario a corto plazo de movimiento lateral. Limitadas las caídas, por su mayor atractivo (teórico) a la renta fija; limitadas subidas, como consecuencia de la incertidumbre económica que se refleja en un ajustado aumento previsto de los resultados empresariales.
Con todo, el mes de marzo “ha salvado” el primer trimestre para las bolsas mundiales…. Y especialmente ha permitido que el dinero vuelva a las castigadas bolsas emergentes…..
Nosotros esperamos un crecimiento mundial este año del 2.5 %. Una cifra coherente con un crecimiento de resultados del 3-4 % para el año. ¿Riesgos? claramente a la baja, para el crecimiento y para la evolución esperada de los beneficios. Pero, de esto ya sabemos mucho. Miren la evolución reciente de las previsiones de resultados…
Naturalmente, en 2016/2017 todo puede ser diferente. Esta es la máxima a repetir: suelo para los precios del crudo (mejora en las perspectivas de resultados para el sector) y continuidad en la mejora económica. ¿Y la banca? Por el momento somos neutrales.
En definitiva, aún esperamos subidas adicionales de las bolsas mundiales del 7 % hasta final de año. Pero, primando emergentes. Y viendo oportunidades en las caídas ahora de las bolsas europeas. Con todo, aún hay tiempo para aprovecharse de ellas. Con paciencia.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
19:10 DEUTSCHE BANK ejemplo de sobreventa en los bancos europeos
Si es cierto que es complicado determinar si la caída en los bancos ha podido concluir en los mínimos de la semana pasada, si parece que el riesgo en estos niveles parece más al alza que a la baja. Ejemplo de ello lo tenemos en muchos bancos, los cuales rebotaron fuertemente el viernes (bancos italianos subiendo alrededor de un 10%).
Si atendemos a parámetros técnicos podemos apreciar cotas de sobreventa elevadas. Ejemplo abajo en el DBK:
Eduardo Faus
Original de Renta 4 Banco
19:30 Divisas: "La macro favorecerá al dólar"
Bankinter
Eurodólar (€/USD).- El dólar cerró la semana pasada ligeramente depreciado, después de publicarse las Actas de la Fed con un mensaje dovish. De cara a los próximos días el dólar debería ganar algo de fuerza ya que se publican varios indicadores en EE.UU. y el saldo se estima que será positivo (Vtas. Minoristas, IPC, Prod. Industrial, etc.). Rango estimado (semana): 1,134-1,142.
20:17 Chevron: el MACD se sitúa por debajo de su línea de señal
Trading Central
Nuestro punto de rotación se sitúa en 100.1.
Nuestra preferencia: siempre que se mantenga la resistencia en 100.1, pondremos las miras en 88.6.
Escenario alternativo: por encima de 100.1, objetivo 104.1 y 106.7.
Técnicamente, el índice de fuerza relativa (RSI) se encuentra por debajo de su zona de neutralidad de 50. El indicador de convergencia/divergencia de medias móviles (MACD) se sitúa por debajo de su línea de señal y es positivo.
Asimismo, la acción se sitúa por encima de su media móvil de 20 y 50 días (se sitúa a 95.02 y 89.71 respectivamente).
20:32 El giro bajista del dólar podría ser breve, según muestra la historia
Si miramos décadas atrás, las subidas del dólar han perdurado durante largos períodos de tiempo. El último se inició en 1995 y no terminó hasta 2002. Eso tiene a algunos estrategas pensando que el avance del dólar actual, que comenzó en 2011, no se ha acabado a pesar de que ha sufrido su peor trimestre en más de tres años.
21:25 Rebote del indice CCI
Análisis técnico Citi
El índice amplio del CCI se recuperó desde la zona de soporte de 374-378 con el momentum cruzando al alza desde niveles de sobreventa que se ya se vieron en el mínimo de la tendencia.
La vela semanal (derecha) también muestra un patrón de martillo indicando más subidas.
El máximo de tendencia en 394 podría ser probado en el corto plazo.
El Commodity Channel Index (CCI) es un oscilador introducido originalmente por Donald Lambert en 1980. Desde su introducción, el indicador ha crecido en popularidad y ahora es una herramienta muy común de los traders para identificar tendencias cíclicas no sólo en las materias primas, sino también la renta variable y divisas.
¿Creen en los cisnes negros?
Lunes, 11 de Abril del 2016 - 21:52:00
Tras trabajar durante muchos años en los mercados he aprendido que lo que realmente debemos temer es lo que no conocemos. En definitiva, lo inesperado. En situaciones extremas, los accidentes. En situaciones menos extremas, lo que no está valorado. O cuya valoración es baja. Casi nula.
Vean ahora estos dos gráficos.
Aquí tienen un buen reflejo de lo que esperan y temen las autoridades monetarias USA.
Pero, de nuevo, ¿cuál sería el cisne negro en esta ocasión? Sorpresas positivas, tanto para el crecimiento como para la inflación.
En el primer caso, poco que decir: las proyecciones de crecimiento son en mi opinión incluso optimistas. Pero, ¿qué pasa con la inflación? La repuesta es que, con tiempo, se aproximará al objetivo. Lo interesante de esto es como la propia Yellen se mostraba convencida el jueves pasado de que la inflación, su recuperación, sería una cuestión de tiempo sólo matizado por la combinación de un USD fuerte y un precio del crudo a la baja.
Pero ahora el precio del crudo se mantiene estable (o con moderada subida….veremos la próxima reunión de la OPEP) y el USD está bajando en los mercados de divisas.
¿Qué es lo que esperamos entonces? Los mercados viven de expectaciones.
Y las expectaciones de reflejan en los precios.
En definitiva, impasse por la Fed que favorece a la bolsa USA y emergentes frente a Europa y Japón; y perjufica al USD frente al resto.
¿Hasta cuándo? Los datos mandan.
Por ejemplo, los resultados empresariales (comenzamos el periodo de resultados del Q1) deben validar la infravaloración relativa de las bolsas frente a la deuda; los datos de inflación deben justificar los bajos tipos de interés de la deuda (por el momento esperamos un rango de 1.65/2.2 % para el treasury 10 años).
Y mientras tanto, el USD seguirá a la baja en un entorno de incertidumbre sobre Grecia, sobre UK y sobre la propia solidez de los mercados.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
Lunes, 11 de Abril del 2016 - 18:00
Cartera de Estados Unidos mantenemos: Amazon (10%), American Express (10%), Baxter International (10%), Boeing (10%), Colgate Palmolive (10%), Disney (10%), Mastercard (10%), Metlife (10%), Mead Johnson Nutrition, (10%) y Monsanto (10%).
Análisis de los activos de riesgo
Lunes, 11 de Abril del 2016 - 18:30:00
Seguro que al leer el título han pensado inmediatamente en las bolsas. Pero, ¿realmente es el activo financiero con mayor riesgo? Los bancos centrales son los únicos que pueden responder a esta cuestión. Al menos a corto plazo…
¿Y las bolsas? Sigo pensando que, pese al renovado reciente castigo, se enfrentan a un escenario a corto plazo de movimiento lateral. Limitadas las caídas, por su mayor atractivo (teórico) a la renta fija; limitadas subidas, como consecuencia de la incertidumbre económica que se refleja en un ajustado aumento previsto de los resultados empresariales.
Con todo, el mes de marzo “ha salvado” el primer trimestre para las bolsas mundiales…. Y especialmente ha permitido que el dinero vuelva a las castigadas bolsas emergentes…..
Nosotros esperamos un crecimiento mundial este año del 2.5 %. Una cifra coherente con un crecimiento de resultados del 3-4 % para el año. ¿Riesgos? claramente a la baja, para el crecimiento y para la evolución esperada de los beneficios. Pero, de esto ya sabemos mucho. Miren la evolución reciente de las previsiones de resultados…
Naturalmente, en 2016/2017 todo puede ser diferente. Esta es la máxima a repetir: suelo para los precios del crudo (mejora en las perspectivas de resultados para el sector) y continuidad en la mejora económica. ¿Y la banca? Por el momento somos neutrales.
En definitiva, aún esperamos subidas adicionales de las bolsas mundiales del 7 % hasta final de año. Pero, primando emergentes. Y viendo oportunidades en las caídas ahora de las bolsas europeas. Con todo, aún hay tiempo para aprovecharse de ellas. Con paciencia.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
19:10 DEUTSCHE BANK ejemplo de sobreventa en los bancos europeos
Si es cierto que es complicado determinar si la caída en los bancos ha podido concluir en los mínimos de la semana pasada, si parece que el riesgo en estos niveles parece más al alza que a la baja. Ejemplo de ello lo tenemos en muchos bancos, los cuales rebotaron fuertemente el viernes (bancos italianos subiendo alrededor de un 10%).
Si atendemos a parámetros técnicos podemos apreciar cotas de sobreventa elevadas. Ejemplo abajo en el DBK:
Eduardo Faus
Original de Renta 4 Banco
19:30 Divisas: "La macro favorecerá al dólar"
Bankinter
Eurodólar (€/USD).- El dólar cerró la semana pasada ligeramente depreciado, después de publicarse las Actas de la Fed con un mensaje dovish. De cara a los próximos días el dólar debería ganar algo de fuerza ya que se publican varios indicadores en EE.UU. y el saldo se estima que será positivo (Vtas. Minoristas, IPC, Prod. Industrial, etc.). Rango estimado (semana): 1,134-1,142.
20:17 Chevron: el MACD se sitúa por debajo de su línea de señal
Trading Central
Nuestro punto de rotación se sitúa en 100.1.
Nuestra preferencia: siempre que se mantenga la resistencia en 100.1, pondremos las miras en 88.6.
Escenario alternativo: por encima de 100.1, objetivo 104.1 y 106.7.
Técnicamente, el índice de fuerza relativa (RSI) se encuentra por debajo de su zona de neutralidad de 50. El indicador de convergencia/divergencia de medias móviles (MACD) se sitúa por debajo de su línea de señal y es positivo.
Asimismo, la acción se sitúa por encima de su media móvil de 20 y 50 días (se sitúa a 95.02 y 89.71 respectivamente).
20:32 El giro bajista del dólar podría ser breve, según muestra la historia
Si miramos décadas atrás, las subidas del dólar han perdurado durante largos períodos de tiempo. El último se inició en 1995 y no terminó hasta 2002. Eso tiene a algunos estrategas pensando que el avance del dólar actual, que comenzó en 2011, no se ha acabado a pesar de que ha sufrido su peor trimestre en más de tres años.
21:25 Rebote del indice CCI
Análisis técnico Citi
El índice amplio del CCI se recuperó desde la zona de soporte de 374-378 con el momentum cruzando al alza desde niveles de sobreventa que se ya se vieron en el mínimo de la tendencia.
La vela semanal (derecha) también muestra un patrón de martillo indicando más subidas.
El máximo de tendencia en 394 podría ser probado en el corto plazo.
El Commodity Channel Index (CCI) es un oscilador introducido originalmente por Donald Lambert en 1980. Desde su introducción, el indicador ha crecido en popularidad y ahora es una herramienta muy común de los traders para identificar tendencias cíclicas no sólo en las materias primas, sino también la renta variable y divisas.
¿Creen en los cisnes negros?
Lunes, 11 de Abril del 2016 - 21:52:00
Tras trabajar durante muchos años en los mercados he aprendido que lo que realmente debemos temer es lo que no conocemos. En definitiva, lo inesperado. En situaciones extremas, los accidentes. En situaciones menos extremas, lo que no está valorado. O cuya valoración es baja. Casi nula.
Vean ahora estos dos gráficos.
Aquí tienen un buen reflejo de lo que esperan y temen las autoridades monetarias USA.
Pero, de nuevo, ¿cuál sería el cisne negro en esta ocasión? Sorpresas positivas, tanto para el crecimiento como para la inflación.
En el primer caso, poco que decir: las proyecciones de crecimiento son en mi opinión incluso optimistas. Pero, ¿qué pasa con la inflación? La repuesta es que, con tiempo, se aproximará al objetivo. Lo interesante de esto es como la propia Yellen se mostraba convencida el jueves pasado de que la inflación, su recuperación, sería una cuestión de tiempo sólo matizado por la combinación de un USD fuerte y un precio del crudo a la baja.
Pero ahora el precio del crudo se mantiene estable (o con moderada subida….veremos la próxima reunión de la OPEP) y el USD está bajando en los mercados de divisas.
¿Qué es lo que esperamos entonces? Los mercados viven de expectaciones.
Y las expectaciones de reflejan en los precios.
En definitiva, impasse por la Fed que favorece a la bolsa USA y emergentes frente a Europa y Japón; y perjufica al USD frente al resto.
¿Hasta cuándo? Los datos mandan.
Por ejemplo, los resultados empresariales (comenzamos el periodo de resultados del Q1) deben validar la infravaloración relativa de las bolsas frente a la deuda; los datos de inflación deben justificar los bajos tipos de interés de la deuda (por el momento esperamos un rango de 1.65/2.2 % para el treasury 10 años).
Y mientras tanto, el USD seguirá a la baja en un entorno de incertidumbre sobre Grecia, sobre UK y sobre la propia solidez de los mercados.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
por Fenix » Lun Abr 11, 2016 7:13 pm
''Carlos Manrique'' chileno se hace humo y deja en la calle a sus inversionistas
(Bloomberg) Entre las variadas e inquietantes preguntas que rodean al creador de un fondo de inversión chileno y celebridad de Miami, Alberto Chang-Rajii, la más apremiante es esta: ¿dónde está?
El fundador de la firma de capital privado Grupo Arcano desapareció repentinamente, agravando las preocupaciones sobre una trayectoria ascendente en su carrera que lo tuvo codeándose con el multimillonario Richard Branson y persuadiendo a chilenos a invertir millones de dólares en su fondo. Su desaparición de la mirada pública corona dos semanas tormentosas en las que los periódicos plantearon la posibilidad de que el pasado de Chang –desde afirmaciones de que él fue uno de los primeros inversionistas de Google hasta su MBA de la Universidad de Stanford– y su récord de inversiones no sean lo que parecen.
En el último vuelco de esta historia, colegas y miembros de su familia recibieron un correo electrónico el miércoles desde la cuenta personal de Chang con el texto “Desde Malta
” en el asunto. El empresario de 42 años dijo que se retiraba de su “trabajo, de su empresa y de su vida” porque su plan para “arreglar todo desde el extranjero falló”. Y correos electrónicos dirigidos a Bloomberg el lunes, supuestamente provenientes de la cuenta laboral de Chang, dicen que estuvo viajando entre Malta y Londres y que Grupo Arcano es una compañía “sólida y acreditada” y que pagará a todos los inversores.
Ahora, tres ejecutivos de la firma han renunciado y explican a los inversores que entregarán la información a las autoridades.
“Fuimos ejecutivos en las empresas del Grupo Arcano por varios años y siempre efectuamos operaciones reales”, según un correo electrónico recibido por clientes de fondos de parte de David Senerman, jefe de inversiones de Grupo Arcano, su esposa Nicole Soumastre, máxima responsable ejecutiva de su unidad de inversiones, y Paulo Brignardello, gerente comercial de Grupo Arcano. “Gran parte de nuestros ahorros y los de nuestros familiares están también invertidos con él. Este engaño nos afecta no sólo en lo laboral y humano, sino también en lo patrimonial”.
Un grupo de personas que manifiestan ser clientes de Grupo Arcano y de su administradora de fondos filial Onix Capital LLC se han agolpado en las afueras de las oficinas ubicadas en el sofisticado barrio Vitacura de Santiago durante días, declarando que nadie responde a sus correos electrónicos ni llamadas telefónicas a la empresa. Desde el jueves cuelga un letrero de “Fuera de servicio” en la puerta de entrada al edificio, cuya procedencia se desconoce.
Hasta la fecha, ninguno de los usuarios que invertían en el fondo de ocho años –que ofrecía a algunos clientes retornos garantizados de hasta un 36 por ciento anual– ha declarado a Bloomberg no recibir dinero de vuelta al momento del pago de rentabilidades. La fiscalía pública allanó las oficinas de Grupo Arcano el jueves como parte de una investigación del caso. Bloomberg llamó a la agencia fuera de horas de oficina, pero no hubo respuestas.
En la carta que recibieron los inversores, los tres ejecutivos que renunciaron dijeron que tenían “fundadas dudas” sobre el “monto y exactitud” del patrimonio de Chang. Los esfuerzos para comunicarse con Chang, los ejecutivos que renunciaron y el ex máximo responsable ejecutivo de la compañía, Jorge Hurtado, han sido infructuosos. Las llamadas telefónicas y los correos electrónicos a la oficina no han tenido respuesta.
Publicado el Lunes, 11 de Abril del 2016
Bolsa de Valores de Lima sube 8.6% tras elecciones presidenciales
Acciones de minera Volcan suben en 25%
Bolsa pasó los 12 mil puntos
La Bolsa de Valores de Lima (BVL) cerró al alza, tras haberse llevado a cabo ayer las elecciones generales, y tuvo su mejor jornada del mes y del año.
En la jornada de hoy se negociaron S/ 117.4 millones en 1,833 operaciones, el mayor monto en lo que va del año.
photo Bolsa-de-Valores-de-Lima_zpsyzg7ugav.jpg
El Índice General de la BVL (SP/BVL PERU GEN), el más importante de la bolsa, subió hoy en 8.6% y cerró en 12,517 puntos, alcanzando el nivel de hace un año; el Índice Selectivo de la BVL (SP/BVL PERU SEL), subió en 9%; el SP/BVL LIMA 25 subió en 12.1%, y el Índice de Buen Gobierno Corporativo (SP/BVL IBGC), subió en 9.4%.
Los índices sectoriales que más subieron hoy fueron: construcción en 15.2%, industriales en 14.5% y eléctricas en 9.8%. Ningún índice tuvo rendimiento negativo.
Entre las acciones que más subieron hoy están: acciones B de Volcan Compañía Minera, que subió en 25.3% y cerró en S/ 0.57; acciones de inversión de Minsur, que subió en 19.8% y cerró en S/ 1.03; la Unión Andina de Cementos – Unacem, que subió en 17.5% y cerró en S/ 2.35; Siderperú, que subió en 16.5% y cerró en S/ 0.21; Cementos Pacasmayo, que subió en 14.9% y cerró en S/ 5.40; Minera Milpo, que subió en 14.8% y cerró en S/ 2.32, y Graña y Montero, que subió en 14.3% y cerró en S/ 3.20.
Las acciones más negociadas hoy fueron: Intercorp Financial Services, con un monto de US$ 3.9 millones en 44 operaciones; Graña y Montero, con un monto de S/ 11.7 millones en 173 operaciones; acciones B de Volcan, con un monto de S/ 11.5 millones en 731 operaciones; el EPU de MSCI, con un monto de US$ 2.5 millones en 3 operaciones; Ferreycorp, con un monto de S/ 7.5 millones en 74 operaciones, y Unacem, con un monto de S/ 5.5 millones en 36 operaciones.
(GE)
Publicado el Lunes, 11 de Abril del 2016
(Bloomberg) Entre las variadas e inquietantes preguntas que rodean al creador de un fondo de inversión chileno y celebridad de Miami, Alberto Chang-Rajii, la más apremiante es esta: ¿dónde está?
El fundador de la firma de capital privado Grupo Arcano desapareció repentinamente, agravando las preocupaciones sobre una trayectoria ascendente en su carrera que lo tuvo codeándose con el multimillonario Richard Branson y persuadiendo a chilenos a invertir millones de dólares en su fondo. Su desaparición de la mirada pública corona dos semanas tormentosas en las que los periódicos plantearon la posibilidad de que el pasado de Chang –desde afirmaciones de que él fue uno de los primeros inversionistas de Google hasta su MBA de la Universidad de Stanford– y su récord de inversiones no sean lo que parecen.
En el último vuelco de esta historia, colegas y miembros de su familia recibieron un correo electrónico el miércoles desde la cuenta personal de Chang con el texto “Desde Malta
” en el asunto. El empresario de 42 años dijo que se retiraba de su “trabajo, de su empresa y de su vida” porque su plan para “arreglar todo desde el extranjero falló”. Y correos electrónicos dirigidos a Bloomberg el lunes, supuestamente provenientes de la cuenta laboral de Chang, dicen que estuvo viajando entre Malta y Londres y que Grupo Arcano es una compañía “sólida y acreditada” y que pagará a todos los inversores.Ahora, tres ejecutivos de la firma han renunciado y explican a los inversores que entregarán la información a las autoridades.
“Fuimos ejecutivos en las empresas del Grupo Arcano por varios años y siempre efectuamos operaciones reales”, según un correo electrónico recibido por clientes de fondos de parte de David Senerman, jefe de inversiones de Grupo Arcano, su esposa Nicole Soumastre, máxima responsable ejecutiva de su unidad de inversiones, y Paulo Brignardello, gerente comercial de Grupo Arcano. “Gran parte de nuestros ahorros y los de nuestros familiares están también invertidos con él. Este engaño nos afecta no sólo en lo laboral y humano, sino también en lo patrimonial”.
Un grupo de personas que manifiestan ser clientes de Grupo Arcano y de su administradora de fondos filial Onix Capital LLC se han agolpado en las afueras de las oficinas ubicadas en el sofisticado barrio Vitacura de Santiago durante días, declarando que nadie responde a sus correos electrónicos ni llamadas telefónicas a la empresa. Desde el jueves cuelga un letrero de “Fuera de servicio” en la puerta de entrada al edificio, cuya procedencia se desconoce.
Hasta la fecha, ninguno de los usuarios que invertían en el fondo de ocho años –que ofrecía a algunos clientes retornos garantizados de hasta un 36 por ciento anual– ha declarado a Bloomberg no recibir dinero de vuelta al momento del pago de rentabilidades. La fiscalía pública allanó las oficinas de Grupo Arcano el jueves como parte de una investigación del caso. Bloomberg llamó a la agencia fuera de horas de oficina, pero no hubo respuestas.
En la carta que recibieron los inversores, los tres ejecutivos que renunciaron dijeron que tenían “fundadas dudas” sobre el “monto y exactitud” del patrimonio de Chang. Los esfuerzos para comunicarse con Chang, los ejecutivos que renunciaron y el ex máximo responsable ejecutivo de la compañía, Jorge Hurtado, han sido infructuosos. Las llamadas telefónicas y los correos electrónicos a la oficina no han tenido respuesta.
Publicado el Lunes, 11 de Abril del 2016
Bolsa de Valores de Lima sube 8.6% tras elecciones presidenciales
Acciones de minera Volcan suben en 25%
Bolsa pasó los 12 mil puntos
La Bolsa de Valores de Lima (BVL) cerró al alza, tras haberse llevado a cabo ayer las elecciones generales, y tuvo su mejor jornada del mes y del año.
En la jornada de hoy se negociaron S/ 117.4 millones en 1,833 operaciones, el mayor monto en lo que va del año.
photo Bolsa-de-Valores-de-Lima_zpsyzg7ugav.jpg
El Índice General de la BVL (SP/BVL PERU GEN), el más importante de la bolsa, subió hoy en 8.6% y cerró en 12,517 puntos, alcanzando el nivel de hace un año; el Índice Selectivo de la BVL (SP/BVL PERU SEL), subió en 9%; el SP/BVL LIMA 25 subió en 12.1%, y el Índice de Buen Gobierno Corporativo (SP/BVL IBGC), subió en 9.4%.
Los índices sectoriales que más subieron hoy fueron: construcción en 15.2%, industriales en 14.5% y eléctricas en 9.8%. Ningún índice tuvo rendimiento negativo.
Entre las acciones que más subieron hoy están: acciones B de Volcan Compañía Minera, que subió en 25.3% y cerró en S/ 0.57; acciones de inversión de Minsur, que subió en 19.8% y cerró en S/ 1.03; la Unión Andina de Cementos – Unacem, que subió en 17.5% y cerró en S/ 2.35; Siderperú, que subió en 16.5% y cerró en S/ 0.21; Cementos Pacasmayo, que subió en 14.9% y cerró en S/ 5.40; Minera Milpo, que subió en 14.8% y cerró en S/ 2.32, y Graña y Montero, que subió en 14.3% y cerró en S/ 3.20.
Las acciones más negociadas hoy fueron: Intercorp Financial Services, con un monto de US$ 3.9 millones en 44 operaciones; Graña y Montero, con un monto de S/ 11.7 millones en 173 operaciones; acciones B de Volcan, con un monto de S/ 11.5 millones en 731 operaciones; el EPU de MSCI, con un monto de US$ 2.5 millones en 3 operaciones; Ferreycorp, con un monto de S/ 7.5 millones en 74 operaciones, y Unacem, con un monto de S/ 5.5 millones en 36 operaciones.
(GE)
Publicado el Lunes, 11 de Abril del 2016
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
por Fenix » Lun Abr 11, 2016 7:16 pm
Hazlitt, 1946: Inflation, Deflation, Confusion
04/10/2016 14:55 -0400
By Mises.org, Originally printed in Newsweek on October 14th, 1946 as "Inflation, Deflation, Confusion." Available in Business Tides: The Newsweek Era of Henry Hazlitt
Hazlitt, 1946: Inflation, Deflation, Confusion
In the last two years left-wingers have been fond of referring to private enterprise as a “boom-bust” economy; OPA officials have contended that only price fixing can prevent a repetition of the 1920–21 boom and collapse, and British statesmen have insisted that their new “democratic socialism” will work beautifully if only mercurial America doesn’t crack again and drag the rest of the world down with it. Small wonder that so many people now ask each other whether the recent slump in the stock market does not at last foreshadow this longpredicted business setback.
The question is not easy to answer, because the American economy has now become the football of political policies and counterpolicies that are not inherent in it but essentially external. These conflicting political policies are on the one hand those tending to create inflation, and on the other those tending to bring about disruption.
The inflationary forces are obvious, and until now have been controlling. Their primary causes are government deficit financing and other political policies that increase the volume of money and credit. Past inflationary forces are roughly measured by the increase in the national debt to $265,000,000,000 and of money and credit to more than three times the prewar volume. Potential future inflation is indicated by a still unbalanced budget in prospect (in spite of a balance in the first quarter of the current fiscal year), and by a policy of artificially low interest rates that promotes further increases in credit and further monetization of the public debt. As long as inflation raises prices faster than costs it stimulates business expansion, new ventures, and employment.
Against this, however, are equally powerful forces of disruption. The chief of them is price control, administered in a spirit hostile to profits and business. This has distorted relationships among profit margins and disrupted and unbalanced production. Builders find themselves with bricks and no doors, glass, or bathtubs. Automobiles wait on assembly lines for bumpers or batteries.
The profit squeeze from the top meets another from the bottom. Endless strikes, interrupting output, are followed by endless wage increases. To encourage or compel such wage increases the Administration ignores elementary property rights, seizes coal mines, and signs wage-boosting contracts itself. These wage increases must ultimately either raise costs to the point where many firms can no longer operate, or force up prices to levels that will cut off buying. In either case they will slow down production and force unemployment. Add to all this a basic hostility to business on the part of Washington agencies which is reflected in countless harassments.
Which of these two sets of forces will dominate the next six to twelve months—the inflationary or the depressive? That is impossible to say until we know the complexion of the next Congress and the main decisions that key political figures—President Truman, Secretaries Snyder, Byrnes, and Anderson, Paul Porter, Wilson Wyatt, Marriner Eccles, and members of the PDB, ICC, OWMR, NLRB and CPA—are going to make. The decisions of such men are incomparably more important today in determining the future course of business than the merely derivative decisions made by private businessmen.
One thing we could not have simultaneously is both “inflation” and “deflation,” for we could not have simultaneously both an expansion and contraction of the money supply. But we could have a frustrated inflation. We could have simultaneously, as experience in Europe has already proved, both inflation and industrial disruption, inflation and unemployment, inflation and stagnation.
The real danger we face in the next six to twelve months is that if the present combination of political policies brings about this result, Administration officials, instead of removing the throttling controls that cause it, may decide that the real trouble has been insufficient inflation, and may embark upon the disastrous policy of further increasing and debasing the money and credit supply. Our greatest enemy today, in short, is the economic illiteracy and confusion on the part of those who insist on “planning,” “stabilizing,” and straitjacketing the economy and who have the political power to do it.
Japan Needs A Stronger Dollar, China Wants A Weaker Dollar: The Fed Can't Please Both
04/10/2016 16:10 -0400
Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith
Japan Desperately Needs A Stronger Dollar, China Desperately Wants A Weaker Dollar: The Fed Can't Please Both
The FX market is about to blow up in the Fed's face, and there's nothing they can do about it.
Foreign exchange (FX) is a zero-sum game: if one currency weakens, another must strengthen. Since the value of a currency is relative to other currencies, all currencies can't weaken together: at least one currency must strengthen as others weaken.
That one strengthening currency has been the U.S. dollar (USD) since mid-2014. The USD has strengthened by 20%, while the Japanese yen and the euro weakened by 20%. Many developing-economy currencies (rand, peso, real, etc.) have fallen off a cliff, suffering 40% to 50% (or even more) declines against the U.S. dollar.
Why does any of this matter? Simply put, the stock market is a monkey on a leash held by central banks--just give the leash a little tug, and the monkey jumps. Bonds are a gorilla--harder to control, but still manageable--but foreign exchange is King Kong, trading $5 trillion a day and impossible to control beyond short-term manipulations.
Currencies set the underlying trend, not just for bonds and stocks, but for entire economies. A weakening currency makes a nation's exports cheaper in other countries, and the theory is that expanding exports will boost the overall economy--especially if that economy is stagnating or in recession.
A weakening currency also makes imports more expensive in the domestic economy, pushing inflation higher--precisely what every central bank in the world desires, on the theory that inflation will make people spend more (since their money is losing value) and reduce the costs of borrowing (which is presumed to stimulate more borrowing and spending).
This is why everybody seems to want a weaker currency. But as noted above, every currency can't go down; if some weaken, others have to strengthen.
Which brings us to the current brewing crisis: beneath the propaganda that all is well in the world, the soaring dollar has destabilized the global economy in subtle ways: carry trades have been thrown over, capital flows have reversed, commodities priced in dollars have tanked, and so on.
The typical econo-pundit has welcomed the recent weakening of the USD, a reversal of the strong-USD trend:
Japan sought to weaken the yen to boost its exports and inflation. Now the weakening dollar is crushing those plans, as the yen is soaring:
As the yen soars, Japan is being pushed into a self-reinforcing recession. After 20+ years of borrowing to fund fiscal stimulus, money-printing, bond-buying, etc., Japan has run out of options. Weakening the yen was the last best hope to boost exports and inflation.
The strengthening yen is an economic crisis for Japan.
Meanwhile, the strengthening dollar pushed China into its own crisis. China's currency, the renminbi (RMB, a.k.a. yuan), is a special case because its relative value is pegged to the USD by Chinese monetary authorities. The peg was about 9 to the USD in 2005, and in the following decade China pushed the yuan up to 6 to the dollar.
A currency peg means the pegged currency goes up and down with the master currency. As the dollar soared, it dragged the yuan higher, making China's exports more expensive. Given the stagnation of China's debt-bubble dependent economy, the last thing chinese authorities wanted to see was a faltering export sector.
As the USD rose, the pressure to devalue the yuan also rose. If you think your money is about to lose 20% of its value due to a devaluation, what can you do to protect your wealth? Get your cash out of the currency that's being devalued and into a currency that's strengthening.
Just the possibility of a yuan devaluation has sparked an unprecedented capital flight of cash flooding out of China into USD and assets such as homes in British Columbia and chateaux in France. Capital flight is not a sign of a flourishing economy or evidence that the monied class trusts the currency or the economy.
Recently, China has taken baby-steps to devalue the yuan: not enough to trigger global panic but more than enough to trigger capital flight and deep unease.
As a result, China desperately wants a weaker dollar, as a weaker dollar will weaken the yuan and relieve the pressure on Chinese exports and demands for devaluation.
Many savvy observers have concluded that the recent G20 meeting in Shanghai led to an informal accord to weaken the dollar to prop up the global economy's shaky foundations--and most acutely, to relieve the pressure on China's yuan, which threatened to destabilize the faltering global economy.
But now the world faces the consequences of a weakening USD: a crisis triggered by a stronger yen. The USD has been yo-yoing in a trading range for a year, as the Federal Reserve has yo-yoed between hawkish declarations of rising rates (which make the USD more attractive and thus stronger) and dovish backtracking (we're never going to raise rates), which then push the USD lower.
No wonder the Fed is wobbling: it can't please both Japan and China. If the dollar plummets, China is delighted but Japan is pushed into crisis. If the USD continues its march higher, Japan is "saved" but China will be forced to devalue the yuan or watch its export sector decline.
As I often note, no nation or empire ever devalued its way to dominance or even prosperity. Rather, the devaluation of one's currency is the kiss of death, as everyone quickly learns your money is a ball that can quickly lose air or go flat.
Here's my take: Japan has no options left. China, on the other hand, can devalue the yuan as the USD strengthens. Indeed, a very good case can be made that China should devalue the yuan, as a practical adjustment to new global realities.
The Fed has a stark choice, and the 2-minute warning just sounded. It can break the informal Shanghai Accord to weaken the USD to save Japan from the slow-moving catastrophe of a soaring yen, or it can let the USD weaken further to placate China and the commodity-dependent economies.
What it can't do is please everybody. This is the evitable consequence of manipulating markets: you end up being unable to please anyone, because your constant manipulation has created unsustainable carry trades and speculative gambles.
The FX market is about to blow up in the Fed's face, and there's nothing they can do about it. What central banks fear most are markets that are not tightly controlled by central banks. The world's central banks are about to sit down to a banquet of consequences arising from seven long years of relentless manipulation.
04/10/2016 14:55 -0400
By Mises.org, Originally printed in Newsweek on October 14th, 1946 as "Inflation, Deflation, Confusion." Available in Business Tides: The Newsweek Era of Henry Hazlitt
Hazlitt, 1946: Inflation, Deflation, Confusion
In the last two years left-wingers have been fond of referring to private enterprise as a “boom-bust” economy; OPA officials have contended that only price fixing can prevent a repetition of the 1920–21 boom and collapse, and British statesmen have insisted that their new “democratic socialism” will work beautifully if only mercurial America doesn’t crack again and drag the rest of the world down with it. Small wonder that so many people now ask each other whether the recent slump in the stock market does not at last foreshadow this longpredicted business setback.
The question is not easy to answer, because the American economy has now become the football of political policies and counterpolicies that are not inherent in it but essentially external. These conflicting political policies are on the one hand those tending to create inflation, and on the other those tending to bring about disruption.
The inflationary forces are obvious, and until now have been controlling. Their primary causes are government deficit financing and other political policies that increase the volume of money and credit. Past inflationary forces are roughly measured by the increase in the national debt to $265,000,000,000 and of money and credit to more than three times the prewar volume. Potential future inflation is indicated by a still unbalanced budget in prospect (in spite of a balance in the first quarter of the current fiscal year), and by a policy of artificially low interest rates that promotes further increases in credit and further monetization of the public debt. As long as inflation raises prices faster than costs it stimulates business expansion, new ventures, and employment.
Against this, however, are equally powerful forces of disruption. The chief of them is price control, administered in a spirit hostile to profits and business. This has distorted relationships among profit margins and disrupted and unbalanced production. Builders find themselves with bricks and no doors, glass, or bathtubs. Automobiles wait on assembly lines for bumpers or batteries.
The profit squeeze from the top meets another from the bottom. Endless strikes, interrupting output, are followed by endless wage increases. To encourage or compel such wage increases the Administration ignores elementary property rights, seizes coal mines, and signs wage-boosting contracts itself. These wage increases must ultimately either raise costs to the point where many firms can no longer operate, or force up prices to levels that will cut off buying. In either case they will slow down production and force unemployment. Add to all this a basic hostility to business on the part of Washington agencies which is reflected in countless harassments.
Which of these two sets of forces will dominate the next six to twelve months—the inflationary or the depressive? That is impossible to say until we know the complexion of the next Congress and the main decisions that key political figures—President Truman, Secretaries Snyder, Byrnes, and Anderson, Paul Porter, Wilson Wyatt, Marriner Eccles, and members of the PDB, ICC, OWMR, NLRB and CPA—are going to make. The decisions of such men are incomparably more important today in determining the future course of business than the merely derivative decisions made by private businessmen.
One thing we could not have simultaneously is both “inflation” and “deflation,” for we could not have simultaneously both an expansion and contraction of the money supply. But we could have a frustrated inflation. We could have simultaneously, as experience in Europe has already proved, both inflation and industrial disruption, inflation and unemployment, inflation and stagnation.
The real danger we face in the next six to twelve months is that if the present combination of political policies brings about this result, Administration officials, instead of removing the throttling controls that cause it, may decide that the real trouble has been insufficient inflation, and may embark upon the disastrous policy of further increasing and debasing the money and credit supply. Our greatest enemy today, in short, is the economic illiteracy and confusion on the part of those who insist on “planning,” “stabilizing,” and straitjacketing the economy and who have the political power to do it.
Japan Needs A Stronger Dollar, China Wants A Weaker Dollar: The Fed Can't Please Both
04/10/2016 16:10 -0400
Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith
Japan Desperately Needs A Stronger Dollar, China Desperately Wants A Weaker Dollar: The Fed Can't Please Both
The FX market is about to blow up in the Fed's face, and there's nothing they can do about it.
Foreign exchange (FX) is a zero-sum game: if one currency weakens, another must strengthen. Since the value of a currency is relative to other currencies, all currencies can't weaken together: at least one currency must strengthen as others weaken.
That one strengthening currency has been the U.S. dollar (USD) since mid-2014. The USD has strengthened by 20%, while the Japanese yen and the euro weakened by 20%. Many developing-economy currencies (rand, peso, real, etc.) have fallen off a cliff, suffering 40% to 50% (or even more) declines against the U.S. dollar.
Why does any of this matter? Simply put, the stock market is a monkey on a leash held by central banks--just give the leash a little tug, and the monkey jumps. Bonds are a gorilla--harder to control, but still manageable--but foreign exchange is King Kong, trading $5 trillion a day and impossible to control beyond short-term manipulations.
Currencies set the underlying trend, not just for bonds and stocks, but for entire economies. A weakening currency makes a nation's exports cheaper in other countries, and the theory is that expanding exports will boost the overall economy--especially if that economy is stagnating or in recession.
A weakening currency also makes imports more expensive in the domestic economy, pushing inflation higher--precisely what every central bank in the world desires, on the theory that inflation will make people spend more (since their money is losing value) and reduce the costs of borrowing (which is presumed to stimulate more borrowing and spending).
This is why everybody seems to want a weaker currency. But as noted above, every currency can't go down; if some weaken, others have to strengthen.
Which brings us to the current brewing crisis: beneath the propaganda that all is well in the world, the soaring dollar has destabilized the global economy in subtle ways: carry trades have been thrown over, capital flows have reversed, commodities priced in dollars have tanked, and so on.
The typical econo-pundit has welcomed the recent weakening of the USD, a reversal of the strong-USD trend:
Japan sought to weaken the yen to boost its exports and inflation. Now the weakening dollar is crushing those plans, as the yen is soaring:
As the yen soars, Japan is being pushed into a self-reinforcing recession. After 20+ years of borrowing to fund fiscal stimulus, money-printing, bond-buying, etc., Japan has run out of options. Weakening the yen was the last best hope to boost exports and inflation.
The strengthening yen is an economic crisis for Japan.
Meanwhile, the strengthening dollar pushed China into its own crisis. China's currency, the renminbi (RMB, a.k.a. yuan), is a special case because its relative value is pegged to the USD by Chinese monetary authorities. The peg was about 9 to the USD in 2005, and in the following decade China pushed the yuan up to 6 to the dollar.
A currency peg means the pegged currency goes up and down with the master currency. As the dollar soared, it dragged the yuan higher, making China's exports more expensive. Given the stagnation of China's debt-bubble dependent economy, the last thing chinese authorities wanted to see was a faltering export sector.
As the USD rose, the pressure to devalue the yuan also rose. If you think your money is about to lose 20% of its value due to a devaluation, what can you do to protect your wealth? Get your cash out of the currency that's being devalued and into a currency that's strengthening.
Just the possibility of a yuan devaluation has sparked an unprecedented capital flight of cash flooding out of China into USD and assets such as homes in British Columbia and chateaux in France. Capital flight is not a sign of a flourishing economy or evidence that the monied class trusts the currency or the economy.
Recently, China has taken baby-steps to devalue the yuan: not enough to trigger global panic but more than enough to trigger capital flight and deep unease.
As a result, China desperately wants a weaker dollar, as a weaker dollar will weaken the yuan and relieve the pressure on Chinese exports and demands for devaluation.
Many savvy observers have concluded that the recent G20 meeting in Shanghai led to an informal accord to weaken the dollar to prop up the global economy's shaky foundations--and most acutely, to relieve the pressure on China's yuan, which threatened to destabilize the faltering global economy.
But now the world faces the consequences of a weakening USD: a crisis triggered by a stronger yen. The USD has been yo-yoing in a trading range for a year, as the Federal Reserve has yo-yoed between hawkish declarations of rising rates (which make the USD more attractive and thus stronger) and dovish backtracking (we're never going to raise rates), which then push the USD lower.
No wonder the Fed is wobbling: it can't please both Japan and China. If the dollar plummets, China is delighted but Japan is pushed into crisis. If the USD continues its march higher, Japan is "saved" but China will be forced to devalue the yuan or watch its export sector decline.
As I often note, no nation or empire ever devalued its way to dominance or even prosperity. Rather, the devaluation of one's currency is the kiss of death, as everyone quickly learns your money is a ball that can quickly lose air or go flat.
Here's my take: Japan has no options left. China, on the other hand, can devalue the yuan as the USD strengthens. Indeed, a very good case can be made that China should devalue the yuan, as a practical adjustment to new global realities.
The Fed has a stark choice, and the 2-minute warning just sounded. It can break the informal Shanghai Accord to weaken the USD to save Japan from the slow-moving catastrophe of a soaring yen, or it can let the USD weaken further to placate China and the commodity-dependent economies.
What it can't do is please everybody. This is the evitable consequence of manipulating markets: you end up being unable to please anyone, because your constant manipulation has created unsustainable carry trades and speculative gambles.
The FX market is about to blow up in the Fed's face, and there's nothing they can do about it. What central banks fear most are markets that are not tightly controlled by central banks. The world's central banks are about to sit down to a banquet of consequences arising from seven long years of relentless manipulation.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
por Fenix » Lun Abr 11, 2016 7:18 pm
Barclays Warns "Grexit" May Return This Summer While Tsipras "Demonizes" IMF
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/10/2016 - 16:40
"We continue to think Greece has the potential to return to the headlines, and we do not rule out the prospect of “Grexit” returning... We note the more fragile European political environment (Dutch referendum, UK’s EU referendum, likely snap elections in Spain, key elections in France and Germany in 2017) compared to previous episodes, and the possibility that the increased noise around Greece could potentially influence the UK referendum on EU membership. Furthermore, the ongoing migration crisis in which Greece plays a central role is exacerbating tensions at both domestic and European levels."
Italy Seeks "Last Resort" Bailout Fund To "Ringfence" Troubled Banks, Meeting Monday
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/10/2016 - 17:10
Italy is the “too big to fail”, “elephant in the room”. Should Italy try Austria’s solution, it presumably would cause a “chain reaction with ripple effects that would be felt across the European banking system.” Instead, officials will attempt to “ringfence” the problem, hoping to “sweep it under the rug” where presumably a “€360bn pile of non-performing loans” will cure itself, eliminating the need for additional bail-ins
Guest Post: The U.S. Dollar - Return Of The King?
04/10/2016 18:04 -0400
Submitted by $hane Obata
USD: Return Of The King
Falling oil prices, China growth fears, submerging markets, Brexit and Italian banks. All of those risks have one thing in common: They have not derailed the US economy. Despite concerns about a recession, it continues to grow at a steady pace. According to the Atlanta Fed, real GDP is expected to grow by 0.7% in Q1’16. That is not a great number; however, the series is extremely volatile.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
sources: Bloomberg, @Not_Jim_Cramer
It would not be surprising to see growth rebound to 2% or more in the coming quarters.
Global investors are counting on the US because of lackluster growth elsewhere. Europe is doing fine; however, deflation remains a concern and bank credit growth is turning down. Japan continues to fall in and out of recession. In the emerging world, the BRICs are crumbling. Brazil & Russia are suffering due to falling commodity prices while China continues to decelerate. Going forward, rate differentials, relative economic strength and divergent monetary policies should provide support for the USD.
Sentiment & Positioning
With all that said, as of Mar29’16, the net speculative long position in the USD was 7% of open interest, the lowest it has been since Q2’14. This indicates that speculators are the least bullish they have been in nearly two years.
USD Specs
The US Dollar Index is sitting at 94.62, just above a critical support zone at 93-94. Meanwhile, the Trade-Weighted Dollar Index has pulled back ~3.4% from its high on Jan20’16. It is hard to tell that long USD is a consensus trade because investors have lost their conviction.
FX, Rates & Monetary Policy
USDCAD: Has fallen to 1.3011 from a high of 1.4692 on Jan20’16. This is a direct result of the relief rally in oil, which has risen to $36.79 from a low of $26.05 on Feb11’16. These moves have not been driven by improving fundamentals. Rather, they are mostly attributable to short covering.
CAD Specs
WTI Specs
via @Ole_S_Hansen
Rate differentials (see the following chart), relative economic strength and divergent monetary policies should support USDCAD in the near term. Also, it is unlikely that the bear market in commodities is over.
Rates Differentials
sources: Bloomberg, @sobata416
EURUSD & USDJPY: In Europe and Japan, easy monetary policy will be present for an extended period of time. The ECB and BOJ have made it clear that they will do “whatever it takes” to protect their countries from deflation. The ECB recently announced a set of new measures intended to support the Euro Zone. Equities have responded positively but the Euro has not. EURUSD is trading at 1.1389, up from a low of 1.0538 on Dec3’15. Japan is facing the same issue. Even though Japanese equities are up since oil bottomed on February 11th, the Yen is the strongest it has been since Q4’14. It is unlikely EUR and JPY strength will persist for the same reasons mentioned in the previous paragraph.
Growth Forecasts
World Reserve Currency
The USD is the most widely held reserve currency in the world. It represented 64% of official foreign exchange reserves at the end of Q3’15. Countries tend to hold Dollar-denominated assets because they are relatively stable. Foreign central banks also use the USD as collateral for loans and to protect their currencies. For example, if the ECB feels as though the EUR is too strong, it can sell Euros to buy Dollars, thereby reducing the amount of USD in circulation. In theory, this would weaken the Euro.
The foreign exchange market also speaks to the structural importance of the USD. According to the BIS’ Triennial Central Bank Survey, “FX deals with the US Dollar on one side of the transaction represented 87% of all deals initiated in April 2013.”
Lastly, it is important to recognize that many commodities are priced in USD. Therefore, people who want to buy or sell them are required to hold Dollars.
These facts help to explain why demand for the USD will persist. It is still the world reserve currency and that will not change in the near future.
Major Risks
The two major risks to the USD are a dovish Fed and slowing US economic growth.
The Fed is the world’s central bank. Even though both of its mandates are domestic, the Fed has become increasingly concerned about the global economy. This is evident when we look at the rising number of times the Fed has mentioned key terms such as “Global” and “Dollar” in recent meetings.
Global Fed
A strong USD is good for US consumers and bad for commodities & exporters. The Fed is well aware of this relationship; however, it alone does not guarantee dovish monetary policy. Not long ago, market participants thought that 4 rate hikes in 2016 was a possibility. Now, it is unclear whether or not we will see 1. As of Mar29’16, the probability of a hike in December was just 65%. The market is positioned for easy US monetary policy. As such, positive surprises from the US or negative surprises out of Europe or Japan will force investors to reassess their outlooks. If that happens then the Fed may turn more hawkish, which would be positive for the US Dollar.
2) Slowing US Growth
The US economy continues to muddle along, backed by steady employment and consumption growth. The Eurozone is doing fine but most of its gains are attributable to Germany. Other major players such as France and Italy have not fared as well. Moreover, Japan continues to tread water. Canada has rebounded. That said, its economy is dependent on commodity prices, which may roll over in the short run.
All in all, the US still looks good on a relative basis. Especially versus developed market peers.
Return of the King
Rate differentials, relative economic strength and divergent monetary policies should provide support for the USD. In addition, it will likely benefit from safe haven flows when global risks return to the headlines.
If the Dollar resumes its uptrend then commodities will suffer.
USD Drives Oil
via @NickatFP
Oversupply in many industries such as oil, iron ore and coal remains an issue. On the demand side, China’s deceleration is not helping. The emerging markets are inextricably linked to commodities. If prices fall then the EMs will underperform.
There can only be one king.
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/10/2016 - 16:40
"We continue to think Greece has the potential to return to the headlines, and we do not rule out the prospect of “Grexit” returning... We note the more fragile European political environment (Dutch referendum, UK’s EU referendum, likely snap elections in Spain, key elections in France and Germany in 2017) compared to previous episodes, and the possibility that the increased noise around Greece could potentially influence the UK referendum on EU membership. Furthermore, the ongoing migration crisis in which Greece plays a central role is exacerbating tensions at both domestic and European levels."
Italy Seeks "Last Resort" Bailout Fund To "Ringfence" Troubled Banks, Meeting Monday
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/10/2016 - 17:10
Italy is the “too big to fail”, “elephant in the room”. Should Italy try Austria’s solution, it presumably would cause a “chain reaction with ripple effects that would be felt across the European banking system.” Instead, officials will attempt to “ringfence” the problem, hoping to “sweep it under the rug” where presumably a “€360bn pile of non-performing loans” will cure itself, eliminating the need for additional bail-ins
Guest Post: The U.S. Dollar - Return Of The King?
04/10/2016 18:04 -0400
Submitted by $hane Obata
USD: Return Of The King
Falling oil prices, China growth fears, submerging markets, Brexit and Italian banks. All of those risks have one thing in common: They have not derailed the US economy. Despite concerns about a recession, it continues to grow at a steady pace. According to the Atlanta Fed, real GDP is expected to grow by 0.7% in Q1’16. That is not a great number; however, the series is extremely volatile.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
sources: Bloomberg, @Not_Jim_Cramer
It would not be surprising to see growth rebound to 2% or more in the coming quarters.
Global investors are counting on the US because of lackluster growth elsewhere. Europe is doing fine; however, deflation remains a concern and bank credit growth is turning down. Japan continues to fall in and out of recession. In the emerging world, the BRICs are crumbling. Brazil & Russia are suffering due to falling commodity prices while China continues to decelerate. Going forward, rate differentials, relative economic strength and divergent monetary policies should provide support for the USD.
Sentiment & Positioning
With all that said, as of Mar29’16, the net speculative long position in the USD was 7% of open interest, the lowest it has been since Q2’14. This indicates that speculators are the least bullish they have been in nearly two years.
USD Specs
The US Dollar Index is sitting at 94.62, just above a critical support zone at 93-94. Meanwhile, the Trade-Weighted Dollar Index has pulled back ~3.4% from its high on Jan20’16. It is hard to tell that long USD is a consensus trade because investors have lost their conviction.
FX, Rates & Monetary Policy
USDCAD: Has fallen to 1.3011 from a high of 1.4692 on Jan20’16. This is a direct result of the relief rally in oil, which has risen to $36.79 from a low of $26.05 on Feb11’16. These moves have not been driven by improving fundamentals. Rather, they are mostly attributable to short covering.
CAD Specs
WTI Specs
via @Ole_S_Hansen
Rate differentials (see the following chart), relative economic strength and divergent monetary policies should support USDCAD in the near term. Also, it is unlikely that the bear market in commodities is over.
Rates Differentials
sources: Bloomberg, @sobata416
EURUSD & USDJPY: In Europe and Japan, easy monetary policy will be present for an extended period of time. The ECB and BOJ have made it clear that they will do “whatever it takes” to protect their countries from deflation. The ECB recently announced a set of new measures intended to support the Euro Zone. Equities have responded positively but the Euro has not. EURUSD is trading at 1.1389, up from a low of 1.0538 on Dec3’15. Japan is facing the same issue. Even though Japanese equities are up since oil bottomed on February 11th, the Yen is the strongest it has been since Q4’14. It is unlikely EUR and JPY strength will persist for the same reasons mentioned in the previous paragraph.
Growth Forecasts
World Reserve Currency
The USD is the most widely held reserve currency in the world. It represented 64% of official foreign exchange reserves at the end of Q3’15. Countries tend to hold Dollar-denominated assets because they are relatively stable. Foreign central banks also use the USD as collateral for loans and to protect their currencies. For example, if the ECB feels as though the EUR is too strong, it can sell Euros to buy Dollars, thereby reducing the amount of USD in circulation. In theory, this would weaken the Euro.
The foreign exchange market also speaks to the structural importance of the USD. According to the BIS’ Triennial Central Bank Survey, “FX deals with the US Dollar on one side of the transaction represented 87% of all deals initiated in April 2013.”
Lastly, it is important to recognize that many commodities are priced in USD. Therefore, people who want to buy or sell them are required to hold Dollars.
These facts help to explain why demand for the USD will persist. It is still the world reserve currency and that will not change in the near future.
Major Risks
The two major risks to the USD are a dovish Fed and slowing US economic growth.
The Fed is the world’s central bank. Even though both of its mandates are domestic, the Fed has become increasingly concerned about the global economy. This is evident when we look at the rising number of times the Fed has mentioned key terms such as “Global” and “Dollar” in recent meetings.
Global Fed
A strong USD is good for US consumers and bad for commodities & exporters. The Fed is well aware of this relationship; however, it alone does not guarantee dovish monetary policy. Not long ago, market participants thought that 4 rate hikes in 2016 was a possibility. Now, it is unclear whether or not we will see 1. As of Mar29’16, the probability of a hike in December was just 65%. The market is positioned for easy US monetary policy. As such, positive surprises from the US or negative surprises out of Europe or Japan will force investors to reassess their outlooks. If that happens then the Fed may turn more hawkish, which would be positive for the US Dollar.
2) Slowing US Growth
The US economy continues to muddle along, backed by steady employment and consumption growth. The Eurozone is doing fine but most of its gains are attributable to Germany. Other major players such as France and Italy have not fared as well. Moreover, Japan continues to tread water. Canada has rebounded. That said, its economy is dependent on commodity prices, which may roll over in the short run.
All in all, the US still looks good on a relative basis. Especially versus developed market peers.
Return of the King
Rate differentials, relative economic strength and divergent monetary policies should provide support for the USD. In addition, it will likely benefit from safe haven flows when global risks return to the headlines.
If the Dollar resumes its uptrend then commodities will suffer.
USD Drives Oil
via @NickatFP
Oversupply in many industries such as oil, iron ore and coal remains an issue. On the demand side, China’s deceleration is not helping. The emerging markets are inextricably linked to commodities. If prices fall then the EMs will underperform.
There can only be one king.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
por Fenix » Lun Abr 11, 2016 7:26 pm
Japan Says G-20 Accord Barring FX Devaluations Does Not "Rule Out Intervention" In The Yen
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/10/2016 - 20:14
Earlier today, Japan's government spokesman Suga came as close as possible to admitting that there was in fact a tacit "Shanghai Accord" agreement when he said that the Group of 20's agreement to avoid competitive currency devaluation "does not mean Japan cannot intervene in response to one-sided currency moves." It got better: in an interview with Reuters Suga added that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's comment to the Wall Street Journal last week that countries should avoid "arbitrary intervention," was misunderstood and does not rule out intervention for Japan, Suga said.
Blackrock Turns Its Back On Japan Leaving Kuroda Scrambling
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/10/2016 - 20:32
Things are going from bad to worse for the efficacy of the grand - and failed from the beginning - experiment known as Abenomics. As Bloomberg reports, Larry Fink's Blackrock has changed its stance on investing in Japan, and joins Citigroup, Credit Suisse, and LGT Capital Partners, the $50 billion asset manager based in Switzerland in their decision to head for the exits. Ironically, Blackrock's decision comes only a few months after blogging about "The Case for Investing in Japan", in which they explicitly cited increased demand for Japanese stocks.
This Vancouver Home Just Sold For More Than $1 Million Above The Asking Price
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/10/2016 - 20:43
Austria Just Announced A 54% Haircut Of Senior Creditors In First "Bail In" Under New European Rules
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/10/2016 - 21:08
Following a decision by the Austrian Banking Regulator, the Finanzmarktaufsicht or Financial Market Authority, Austria officially became the first European country to use a new law under the framework imposed by Bank the European Recovery and Resolution Directive to share losses of a failed bank with senior creditors as it slashed the value of debt owed by Heta Asset Resolution AG.
"It's Pure Chaos Now; There Is No Way Back" - Venezuela Morgues Are Overflowing
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/10/2016 - 22:37
"Now things are worse than ever," says Yuli Sánchez. "They kill people and no one is punished while families have to keep their pain to themselves."... "This is now wilder than the wild west."... “Venezuela is pure chaos now. It seems to me there is no way back,” the former policeman says.
Even Goldman Says OPEC Doha Meeting Will Be A Dud: "Don't Expect A Bullish Surprise"
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 07:15
"We do not expect the meeting to deliver a bullish surprise as we believe production cuts make little sense given it has taken 18 months for the rebalancing to finally start. In addition, any resolute agreement that would support prices from current levels would prove self-defeating, in our view, as we believe that sustained low prices are required for the nascent non-OPEC supply adjustments to deliver a deficit in 2H16. Finally, a production freeze at recent production levels would not accelerate the rebalancing of the oil market as OPEC (ex. Iran) and Russia production levels have this year remained close to our 2016 average annual forecast of 40.5 mb/d." - Goldman
Bill Gross : "Negative Rates Destroy Savers, The Bedrock Of Capitalism", Larry Fink Agrees
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 08:01
... consider mom and pop and other people who read Barron’s. They are saving for retirement and to put their kids through college. They might have depended on a historic 8%-like return from stocks and bonds. Well, sorry. When interest rates get to zero—and that isn’t the endpoint; they could go negative—savers are destroyed. And savers are the bedrock of capitalism. Savers allow investment, and investment produces growth.
Iran Releases Video Showing Arrival Of First Russian S-300 Missile System
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 08:55
As Iranian media reported overnight, Russia has delivered the first part of an advanced missile defense system to Iran, starting to equip Tehran with technology that was blocked before it signed a deal with world powers on its nuclear program.
Commodities Spike Amid Currency Chaos
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 09:29
Early USD weakness has suddenly been erased on JPY weakness pushing USD index back to unch. However, the chaos in the currency markets is seemingly sending investors fleeing for silver, gold, and crude as the latter tops $40 and the former hits 3-week highs...
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/10/2016 - 20:14
Earlier today, Japan's government spokesman Suga came as close as possible to admitting that there was in fact a tacit "Shanghai Accord" agreement when he said that the Group of 20's agreement to avoid competitive currency devaluation "does not mean Japan cannot intervene in response to one-sided currency moves." It got better: in an interview with Reuters Suga added that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's comment to the Wall Street Journal last week that countries should avoid "arbitrary intervention," was misunderstood and does not rule out intervention for Japan, Suga said.
Blackrock Turns Its Back On Japan Leaving Kuroda Scrambling
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/10/2016 - 20:32
Things are going from bad to worse for the efficacy of the grand - and failed from the beginning - experiment known as Abenomics. As Bloomberg reports, Larry Fink's Blackrock has changed its stance on investing in Japan, and joins Citigroup, Credit Suisse, and LGT Capital Partners, the $50 billion asset manager based in Switzerland in their decision to head for the exits. Ironically, Blackrock's decision comes only a few months after blogging about "The Case for Investing in Japan", in which they explicitly cited increased demand for Japanese stocks.
This Vancouver Home Just Sold For More Than $1 Million Above The Asking Price
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/10/2016 - 20:43
Austria Just Announced A 54% Haircut Of Senior Creditors In First "Bail In" Under New European Rules
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/10/2016 - 21:08
Following a decision by the Austrian Banking Regulator, the Finanzmarktaufsicht or Financial Market Authority, Austria officially became the first European country to use a new law under the framework imposed by Bank the European Recovery and Resolution Directive to share losses of a failed bank with senior creditors as it slashed the value of debt owed by Heta Asset Resolution AG.
"It's Pure Chaos Now; There Is No Way Back" - Venezuela Morgues Are Overflowing
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/10/2016 - 22:37
"Now things are worse than ever," says Yuli Sánchez. "They kill people and no one is punished while families have to keep their pain to themselves."... "This is now wilder than the wild west."... “Venezuela is pure chaos now. It seems to me there is no way back,” the former policeman says.
Even Goldman Says OPEC Doha Meeting Will Be A Dud: "Don't Expect A Bullish Surprise"
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 07:15
"We do not expect the meeting to deliver a bullish surprise as we believe production cuts make little sense given it has taken 18 months for the rebalancing to finally start. In addition, any resolute agreement that would support prices from current levels would prove self-defeating, in our view, as we believe that sustained low prices are required for the nascent non-OPEC supply adjustments to deliver a deficit in 2H16. Finally, a production freeze at recent production levels would not accelerate the rebalancing of the oil market as OPEC (ex. Iran) and Russia production levels have this year remained close to our 2016 average annual forecast of 40.5 mb/d." - Goldman
Bill Gross : "Negative Rates Destroy Savers, The Bedrock Of Capitalism", Larry Fink Agrees
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 08:01
... consider mom and pop and other people who read Barron’s. They are saving for retirement and to put their kids through college. They might have depended on a historic 8%-like return from stocks and bonds. Well, sorry. When interest rates get to zero—and that isn’t the endpoint; they could go negative—savers are destroyed. And savers are the bedrock of capitalism. Savers allow investment, and investment produces growth.
Iran Releases Video Showing Arrival Of First Russian S-300 Missile System
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 08:55
As Iranian media reported overnight, Russia has delivered the first part of an advanced missile defense system to Iran, starting to equip Tehran with technology that was blocked before it signed a deal with world powers on its nuclear program.
Commodities Spike Amid Currency Chaos
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 09:29
Early USD weakness has suddenly been erased on JPY weakness pushing USD index back to unch. However, the chaos in the currency markets is seemingly sending investors fleeing for silver, gold, and crude as the latter tops $40 and the former hits 3-week highs...
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
por Fenix » Lun Abr 11, 2016 7:33 pm
Gold Jumps To $1255 As USDJPY Pumps'n'Dumps
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 10:03 -0400
Business as usual this morning. In order to sustain the dream into the US Open, USDJPY was ramped - running stops to 108.50 to ensure the smoke-and-mirrors gains on another Italian bank bailout rumor enable just the right amount of reytail traders to get muppeted.
USDJPY completes infamous "stops taken out" formation
Once the open struck, USDJPY dumped sending Gold soaring back above $1255.
It appears Goldman's "dubious advice" to sell gold was indeed "dubious" after all.
But it's not just Goldman, here is The Wall Street Journal last Sunday...
Oil Slides After Algeria Oil Minister Admits Russia Refused To Cut Output
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 10:46
“Oil producers don’t want to cut their output. We have already asked for the decrease of production, but some countries have refused, including non-OPEC members, especially Russia,” Khebri says, according to APS
Goldman Slammed With $5.1 Billion Fine For "Serious Misconduct" In Mortgage Selling
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 11:13
Hot on the heels of Wells Fargo's $1.2 billion settlement, Bloomberg reports that Goldman Sachs will pay $5.1 billion to settle a U.S. probe into its handling of mortgage-backed securities involving allegations that loans weren’t properly vetted before being sold to investors as high-quality bonds. “This resolution holds Goldman Sachs accountable for its serious misconduct in falsely assuring investors that securities it sold were backed by sound mortgages, when it knew that they were full of mortgages that were likely to fail,” said Acting Associate Attorney General Stuart Delery.
Silver Surges Most In 6 Months As Hedgers Cover
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 12:38 -0400
The last 3 days have seen silver prices surge over 6%, testing back towards the psychologically important $16 level.
Having been pressured lower after the ECB bounce, the precious metal jumped perfectly off its critical 200-day moving-average, nearing the highs of the year once again.
Chesapeake Forced To Pledge Entire Company As Collateral To Preserve Existing Credit Facility
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 12:45
Today the stock of CHK is surging following the good news that contrary to some expectations, it did not lose access to its $4 billion line of credit. However, that came at a cost: to preserve its full $4 billion availability, Chesapeake was forced to pledge almost all of its natural gas fields, real estate and derivatives contracts. In addition to most of its gas and oil reserves, Chesapeake pledged as collateral all hedge contracts, property, deposit accounts and securities, subject to certain undisclosed carve-outs, according to the regulatory filing. In other words, the entire company.
It appears some of the recent driver is the largest unwind of commercial hedges since November...
Ben Bernanke: "Helicopter Money May Be The Best Available Alternative"
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 13:26 -0400
Now that the prospect of helicopter money by the ECB has so infuriated Germany, the ECB had to reach out to Schauble to "mollify" the Germans who are dreading the second coming of monetary paradrops in one century, it was only a matter of time before Citadel's most prominent employer opined. In a blog post earlier today, Brookings' blogger and the central banker who together with Alan Greenspan has been most responsible for the world's unprecedented debt pile and sad economic state, Ben Bernanke, took the podium to share his views on "helicopter money" head on.
In "What tools does the Fed have left? Part 3: Helicopter money" the former Fed head who first infamously hinted at helicopter money in his November 2002 speech "Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here" when he quoted Milton Friedman, once again started off with a Friedman quote:
"Let us suppose now that one day a helicopter flies over this community and drops an additional $1,000 in bills from the sky, which is, of course, hastily collected by members of the community. Let us suppose further that everyone is convinced that this is a unique event which will never be repeated." (Milton Friedman, “The Optimum Quantity of Money,” 1969)
He then pulls a quote from his own book "The Courage to Act"
"The deflation speech saddled me with the nickname 'Helicopter Ben.' In a discussion of hypothetical possibilities for combating deflation I mentioned an extreme tactic—a broad-based tax cut combined with money creation by the central bank to finance the cut. Milton Friedman had dubbed the approach a 'helicopter drop' of money. Dave Skidmore, the media relations officer…had advised me to delete the helicopter-drop metaphor…'It’s just not the sort of thing a central banker says,' he told me. I replied, 'Everybody knows Milton Friedman said it.' As it turned out, many Wall Street bond traders had apparently not delved deeply into Milton’s oeuvre.” (Ben Bernanke, The Courage to Act, 2015, p. 64)
He then proceeds to introduce the topic as follows: "in recent years, legislatures in advanced industrial economies have for the most part been reluctant to use fiscal tools, in many cases because of concerns that government debt is already too high. In this context, Milton Friedman’s idea of money-financed (as opposed to debt-financed) tax cuts—“helicopter money”—has received a flurry of attention, with influential advocates including Adair Turner, Willem Buiter, and Jordi Gali."
With that out of the way, he launches straight into his qualitative assessment of whether the Helicopter might fly, so to say. He seems quite optimistic: "in theory at least, helicopter money could prove a valuable tool." He goes on, with the caveat that he prefers the term Money-Financed Fiscal Program, or MFFP, instead of "Helicopter Money" - after all, very serious central bankers never call things by their real name:
In particular, it has the attractive feature that it should work even when more conventional monetary policies are ineffective and the initial level of government debt is high. However, second, as a practical matter, the use of helicopter money would involve some difficult issues of implementation. These include (1) the need to integrate the approach with standard monetary policy frameworks and (2) the challenge of achieving the necessary coordination between fiscal and monetary policymakers, without compromising central bank independence or long-run fiscal discipline. I propose some tentative solutions for these problems.
To be clear, the probability of so-called helicopter money being used in the United States in the foreseeable future seems extremely low. The U.S. economy has continued to strengthen and is not today suffering from the severe underutilization of resources and very low inflation (or even deflation) that would justify such an approach; and, as I’ve noted, the Fed has other tools still available. Nevertheless, it’s important that markets and the public appreciate that, should worst-case recession or deflation scenarios occur, governments do have tools to respond. Moreover, with central banks in Europe and Japan struggling to reach their inflation targets, money-financed fiscal actions may receive more attention outside this country.
Yes, the Fed may have other tools available, such as cutting rates by 25 bps back to zero, and then going NIRP as well, or perhaps doing even more QE. But what about central banks that are running out of collateral to monetize, or who are already in deep NIRP territory, such as the ECB?
Indeed, this is why Helicopter Money, pardon MFFP, is virtually a reality in Europe. Ben lays out the appealing aspects of sending money straight to consumers:
From a theoretical perspective, the appealing aspect of an MFFP is that it should influence the economy through a number of channels, making it extremely likely to be effective—even if existing government debt is already high and/or interest rates are zero or negative. In our example the channels would include:
1. the direct effects of the public works spending on GDP, jobs, and income;
2. the increase in household income from the rebate, which should induce greater consumer spending;
3. a temporary increase in expected inflation, the result of the increase in the money supply. Assuming that nominal interest rates are pinned near zero, higher expected inflation implies lower real interest rates, which in turn should incentivize capital investments and other spending; and
4. the fact that, unlike debt-financed fiscal programs, a money-financed program does not increase future tax burdens. [6]
Standard (debt-financed) fiscal programs also work through channels #1 and #2 above. However, when a spending increase or tax cut is paid for by debt issuance, as in the standard case, future debt service costs and thus future tax burdens rise. To the extent that households today anticipate that increase in taxes—or if they simply become more cautious when they hear that the national debt has increased—they will spend less today, offsetting some of the program’s expansionary effect.[7] In contrast, a fiscal expansion financed by money creation does not increase the government debt or households’ future tax payments and so should provide a greater impetus to household spending, all else equal (channel #4 above). Moreover, the increase in the money supply associated with the MFFP should lead to higher expected inflation (channel #3)—a desirable outcome, in this context—than would be the case with debt-financed fiscal policies.
To be sure, Helicopter, pardon MFFP Ben, does see a number of obstacles to such an implementation: one is the legality. So-called people’s QE, as has been advocated for by U.K. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, would be illegal in most or all jurisdictions, Bernanke points out. (That would involve the central bank printing money and giving it away.) Even simply financing extra tax cuts or spending would require coordination that would call into question central bank independence.
There’s also the practical worry that central banks don’t target money supply, but a short-term interest rate. Bernanke suggests that, to implement helicopter money, the central bank could temporarily raise its inflation objective. “Since the price level and the money supply tend to be proportional in the longer run, aiming for a higher price level could approximate the effects of committing to a higher money supply,” he writes.
Bernanke says another concern is governance, and the temptation to use helicopter money when the economy isn’t struggling.
This is somewhat like using QE for 7 straight years, long after the emergency conditions that required the Fed to print money and hand it out to banks had disspitated, so Bernanke would know all about this.
He says a way around that is to create the legal framework in advance, that the Treasury would have a special account at the Fed that would remain unfilled unless the Federal Open Market Committee said it would necessary to achieve employment and inflation goals. But, Bernanke says, it would then be up to Congress and the Administration to decide how, or even whether, to spend the money in the account.
At the end of the day, however, if Congress is faced with the choice of giving the Fed a carte blanche to do whatever it takes, or risk implementing unpopular fiscal policy which may result in many Congressmen losing their jobs, it is clear what the choice would be: "Get to work, Mr Chairman."
Which brings us to Bernanke's conclusion:
Money-financed fiscal programs (MFFPs), known colloquially as helicopter drops, are very unlikely to be needed in the United States in the foreseeable future. They also present a number of practical challenges of implementation, including integrating them into operational monetary frameworks and assuring appropriate governance and coordination between the legislature and the central bank. However, under certain extreme circumstances—sharply deficient aggregate demand, exhausted monetary policy, and unwillingness of the legislature to use debt-financed fiscal policies—such programs may be the best available alternative. It would be premature to rule them out
In short: Ben Bernanke has nodded his head in approval, and all that remains is for Congress to agree.
There is some good news: as Bernanke admits, "helicopter money is a presumably last-resort strategy for policymakers." Which means that once it is implemented, and fails resulting in either even more acute deflation or hyperinflation as these are the only two practical outcomes, that wil be the end of central banking as we know it. For that alone we welcome the inevitable monetary paradrop, and in fact wish it would arrive as soon as possible.
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 10:03 -0400
Business as usual this morning. In order to sustain the dream into the US Open, USDJPY was ramped - running stops to 108.50 to ensure the smoke-and-mirrors gains on another Italian bank bailout rumor enable just the right amount of reytail traders to get muppeted.
USDJPY completes infamous "stops taken out" formation
Once the open struck, USDJPY dumped sending Gold soaring back above $1255.
It appears Goldman's "dubious advice" to sell gold was indeed "dubious" after all.
But it's not just Goldman, here is The Wall Street Journal last Sunday...
Oil Slides After Algeria Oil Minister Admits Russia Refused To Cut Output
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 10:46
“Oil producers don’t want to cut their output. We have already asked for the decrease of production, but some countries have refused, including non-OPEC members, especially Russia,” Khebri says, according to APS
Goldman Slammed With $5.1 Billion Fine For "Serious Misconduct" In Mortgage Selling
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 11:13
Hot on the heels of Wells Fargo's $1.2 billion settlement, Bloomberg reports that Goldman Sachs will pay $5.1 billion to settle a U.S. probe into its handling of mortgage-backed securities involving allegations that loans weren’t properly vetted before being sold to investors as high-quality bonds. “This resolution holds Goldman Sachs accountable for its serious misconduct in falsely assuring investors that securities it sold were backed by sound mortgages, when it knew that they were full of mortgages that were likely to fail,” said Acting Associate Attorney General Stuart Delery.
Silver Surges Most In 6 Months As Hedgers Cover
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 12:38 -0400
The last 3 days have seen silver prices surge over 6%, testing back towards the psychologically important $16 level.
Having been pressured lower after the ECB bounce, the precious metal jumped perfectly off its critical 200-day moving-average, nearing the highs of the year once again.
Chesapeake Forced To Pledge Entire Company As Collateral To Preserve Existing Credit Facility
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 12:45
Today the stock of CHK is surging following the good news that contrary to some expectations, it did not lose access to its $4 billion line of credit. However, that came at a cost: to preserve its full $4 billion availability, Chesapeake was forced to pledge almost all of its natural gas fields, real estate and derivatives contracts. In addition to most of its gas and oil reserves, Chesapeake pledged as collateral all hedge contracts, property, deposit accounts and securities, subject to certain undisclosed carve-outs, according to the regulatory filing. In other words, the entire company.
It appears some of the recent driver is the largest unwind of commercial hedges since November...
Ben Bernanke: "Helicopter Money May Be The Best Available Alternative"
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 13:26 -0400
Now that the prospect of helicopter money by the ECB has so infuriated Germany, the ECB had to reach out to Schauble to "mollify" the Germans who are dreading the second coming of monetary paradrops in one century, it was only a matter of time before Citadel's most prominent employer opined. In a blog post earlier today, Brookings' blogger and the central banker who together with Alan Greenspan has been most responsible for the world's unprecedented debt pile and sad economic state, Ben Bernanke, took the podium to share his views on "helicopter money" head on.
In "What tools does the Fed have left? Part 3: Helicopter money" the former Fed head who first infamously hinted at helicopter money in his November 2002 speech "Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here" when he quoted Milton Friedman, once again started off with a Friedman quote:
"Let us suppose now that one day a helicopter flies over this community and drops an additional $1,000 in bills from the sky, which is, of course, hastily collected by members of the community. Let us suppose further that everyone is convinced that this is a unique event which will never be repeated." (Milton Friedman, “The Optimum Quantity of Money,” 1969)
He then pulls a quote from his own book "The Courage to Act"
"The deflation speech saddled me with the nickname 'Helicopter Ben.' In a discussion of hypothetical possibilities for combating deflation I mentioned an extreme tactic—a broad-based tax cut combined with money creation by the central bank to finance the cut. Milton Friedman had dubbed the approach a 'helicopter drop' of money. Dave Skidmore, the media relations officer…had advised me to delete the helicopter-drop metaphor…'It’s just not the sort of thing a central banker says,' he told me. I replied, 'Everybody knows Milton Friedman said it.' As it turned out, many Wall Street bond traders had apparently not delved deeply into Milton’s oeuvre.” (Ben Bernanke, The Courage to Act, 2015, p. 64)
He then proceeds to introduce the topic as follows: "in recent years, legislatures in advanced industrial economies have for the most part been reluctant to use fiscal tools, in many cases because of concerns that government debt is already too high. In this context, Milton Friedman’s idea of money-financed (as opposed to debt-financed) tax cuts—“helicopter money”—has received a flurry of attention, with influential advocates including Adair Turner, Willem Buiter, and Jordi Gali."
With that out of the way, he launches straight into his qualitative assessment of whether the Helicopter might fly, so to say. He seems quite optimistic: "in theory at least, helicopter money could prove a valuable tool." He goes on, with the caveat that he prefers the term Money-Financed Fiscal Program, or MFFP, instead of "Helicopter Money" - after all, very serious central bankers never call things by their real name:
In particular, it has the attractive feature that it should work even when more conventional monetary policies are ineffective and the initial level of government debt is high. However, second, as a practical matter, the use of helicopter money would involve some difficult issues of implementation. These include (1) the need to integrate the approach with standard monetary policy frameworks and (2) the challenge of achieving the necessary coordination between fiscal and monetary policymakers, without compromising central bank independence or long-run fiscal discipline. I propose some tentative solutions for these problems.
To be clear, the probability of so-called helicopter money being used in the United States in the foreseeable future seems extremely low. The U.S. economy has continued to strengthen and is not today suffering from the severe underutilization of resources and very low inflation (or even deflation) that would justify such an approach; and, as I’ve noted, the Fed has other tools still available. Nevertheless, it’s important that markets and the public appreciate that, should worst-case recession or deflation scenarios occur, governments do have tools to respond. Moreover, with central banks in Europe and Japan struggling to reach their inflation targets, money-financed fiscal actions may receive more attention outside this country.
Yes, the Fed may have other tools available, such as cutting rates by 25 bps back to zero, and then going NIRP as well, or perhaps doing even more QE. But what about central banks that are running out of collateral to monetize, or who are already in deep NIRP territory, such as the ECB?
Indeed, this is why Helicopter Money, pardon MFFP, is virtually a reality in Europe. Ben lays out the appealing aspects of sending money straight to consumers:
From a theoretical perspective, the appealing aspect of an MFFP is that it should influence the economy through a number of channels, making it extremely likely to be effective—even if existing government debt is already high and/or interest rates are zero or negative. In our example the channels would include:
1. the direct effects of the public works spending on GDP, jobs, and income;
2. the increase in household income from the rebate, which should induce greater consumer spending;
3. a temporary increase in expected inflation, the result of the increase in the money supply. Assuming that nominal interest rates are pinned near zero, higher expected inflation implies lower real interest rates, which in turn should incentivize capital investments and other spending; and
4. the fact that, unlike debt-financed fiscal programs, a money-financed program does not increase future tax burdens. [6]
Standard (debt-financed) fiscal programs also work through channels #1 and #2 above. However, when a spending increase or tax cut is paid for by debt issuance, as in the standard case, future debt service costs and thus future tax burdens rise. To the extent that households today anticipate that increase in taxes—or if they simply become more cautious when they hear that the national debt has increased—they will spend less today, offsetting some of the program’s expansionary effect.[7] In contrast, a fiscal expansion financed by money creation does not increase the government debt or households’ future tax payments and so should provide a greater impetus to household spending, all else equal (channel #4 above). Moreover, the increase in the money supply associated with the MFFP should lead to higher expected inflation (channel #3)—a desirable outcome, in this context—than would be the case with debt-financed fiscal policies.
To be sure, Helicopter, pardon MFFP Ben, does see a number of obstacles to such an implementation: one is the legality. So-called people’s QE, as has been advocated for by U.K. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, would be illegal in most or all jurisdictions, Bernanke points out. (That would involve the central bank printing money and giving it away.) Even simply financing extra tax cuts or spending would require coordination that would call into question central bank independence.
There’s also the practical worry that central banks don’t target money supply, but a short-term interest rate. Bernanke suggests that, to implement helicopter money, the central bank could temporarily raise its inflation objective. “Since the price level and the money supply tend to be proportional in the longer run, aiming for a higher price level could approximate the effects of committing to a higher money supply,” he writes.
Bernanke says another concern is governance, and the temptation to use helicopter money when the economy isn’t struggling.
This is somewhat like using QE for 7 straight years, long after the emergency conditions that required the Fed to print money and hand it out to banks had disspitated, so Bernanke would know all about this.
He says a way around that is to create the legal framework in advance, that the Treasury would have a special account at the Fed that would remain unfilled unless the Federal Open Market Committee said it would necessary to achieve employment and inflation goals. But, Bernanke says, it would then be up to Congress and the Administration to decide how, or even whether, to spend the money in the account.
At the end of the day, however, if Congress is faced with the choice of giving the Fed a carte blanche to do whatever it takes, or risk implementing unpopular fiscal policy which may result in many Congressmen losing their jobs, it is clear what the choice would be: "Get to work, Mr Chairman."
Which brings us to Bernanke's conclusion:
Money-financed fiscal programs (MFFPs), known colloquially as helicopter drops, are very unlikely to be needed in the United States in the foreseeable future. They also present a number of practical challenges of implementation, including integrating them into operational monetary frameworks and assuring appropriate governance and coordination between the legislature and the central bank. However, under certain extreme circumstances—sharply deficient aggregate demand, exhausted monetary policy, and unwillingness of the legislature to use debt-financed fiscal policies—such programs may be the best available alternative. It would be premature to rule them out
In short: Ben Bernanke has nodded his head in approval, and all that remains is for Congress to agree.
There is some good news: as Bernanke admits, "helicopter money is a presumably last-resort strategy for policymakers." Which means that once it is implemented, and fails resulting in either even more acute deflation or hyperinflation as these are the only two practical outcomes, that wil be the end of central banking as we know it. For that alone we welcome the inevitable monetary paradrop, and in fact wish it would arrive as soon as possible.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
por Fenix » Lun Abr 11, 2016 7:38 pm
What The Charts Say: 15 "Risks" To The Recent Rally
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 14:55 -0400
The stock surge from February is at risk, warns BofAML's Stephen Suttmeier as a plethora of bearish divergences could cap further gains from here. 2044-2022 are key nearby S&P 500 support for April, but a loss of 2022 is required to break the last higher low from 3/24 and suggest a deeper decline for the S&P 500. The following 15 risk-factors - from VIX term structure steepness to Dow Theory Sell signals - all point to a retest of the recent 1810-1820 lows.
The double bottom breakout point near 1950 is support ahead of the 1820-1810 lows. The 2067-2075 area highs could provide initial resistance ahead of 2085 (double bottom count) and the 2015 highs of 2100-2135.
Many indicators are flashing tactical bearish divergences that suggest that the rally off the Jan/Feb lows is close to its end. Many had bullish divergences (higher lows) at the Feb 11 low on the S&P 500 vs. bearish divergences (lower highs) as the S&P 500 trended higher into early April.
1. New highs for the S&P 500 advance-decline line but SPX EW vs. SPX and NYSE McClellan Oscillator say breadth momentum is diminishing.
Similar to the McClellan Oscillator, the S&P 500 equal-weighted vs. market cap weighted ratio (SPW/SPX) shows a bearish divergence (lower high for SPW/SPX vs. higher high for SPX). Bearish divergences on SPW/SPX suggest limited S&P 500 upside.
2. On-balance-volume and our Volume Intensity Model (VIM) bearishly diverge to place rally from February at risk.
Similar to our Volume Intensity Model (VIM), on-balance-volume (OBV) shows a bearish divergence off the late-March and early-April S&P 500 highs. This is similar to the divergence in late October and early November 2015.
3. The VXV/VIX & the 25-day put/call ratios have shown complacency and are near levels where the S&P 500 typically has had trouble sustaining rallies. The 25-day put/call hit levels associated with the November and May 2015 highs.
A bullish divergence for the VXV/VIX coincided with the Jan/Feb lows and moving into early April, the VXV/VIX has a lower top vs. higher highs in the S&P 500 to set up a bearish divergence. The VXV/VIX reached the overbought zone above 1.20, hitting the highest reading since March 2015. The S&P 500 has generally struggled on these extreme contrarian bearish readings in the VXV/VIX, which is a risk factor.
The CBOE 25-day total put/call ratio has dropped back to the lowest or most complacent levels seen since the S&P 500 highs in early-November at 2116 and late-May 2015 at 2135. This is contrarian bearish with the 25-day put/call reaching 0.93 on March 28 vs. 0.94 in early November and 0.92 in late May. This low put/call ratio is an April risk factor.
4. Daily MACD bearish diverges and triggers a sell signal at 1998-2000 overbought levels.
An overbought sell signal and bearish divergence for daily MACD are warning signs for the rally off the February low. Violent swings in the S&P 500 have pushed daily MACD to oversold extremes similar to 2011 as well as to overbought extremes similar to 1998-2000. Daily MACD is back at these overbought extremes. It took two months for daily MACD to go from oversold to overbought moving into both early November and late March. Investors have moved from the bearish side of the boat to the bullish side or the boat, but the boat has not yet tipped in either direction as the S&P 500 remains range-bound between the 1800 and 2100 areas.
5. A bearish breakdown/retest pattern on S&P 500 VIGOR is an intermediate to longerterm risk factor.
The US 15 Most Active Advance-Decline (A-D) line is a daily cumulative A-D line of the top 15 most heavily traded stocks in the US by share volume. When this A-D is rising, breadth for the most heavily traded stocks is bullish and reflects accumulation or buying. When this A-D line is falling, breadth for the most heavily traded stocks is bearish and reflects distribution or selling. The US most active A-D line broke down late last year and is retesting this breakdown, which is a bearish set-up.
6. A breakdown/retest pattern is a bearish set-up for the most active A-D line. The most active A-D line broke down in late 2015 and breakdowns in 2000 & 2007 preceded SPX breakdowns. This is a warning.
Big breakdowns in the most active A-D line preceded with big breakdowns for the S&P 500 in 2000 and 2007. Moving into 2016, the Most Active A-D line has a big top breakdown in place and we view this as a risk to the cyclical bull market that began in 2009.
7. The Dow Theory Sell Signal intact. Transports show a bearish non-confirmation vs. Industrials moving into April.
8. Monthly MACD remains on a sell signal from last March.
9. Bullish seasonals in April (& 2Q) even after a strong March, but May-Oct is the weakest 6-month period of the year.
10. A rise off extreme lows for net free credit (free credit balances in cash and margin accounts net of the debit balance in margin accounts) could exacerbate an equity market sell-off.
Net free credit is free credit balances in cash and margin accounts net of the debit balance in margin accounts. As of April 2015 net free credit stood at a new record low of -$227b vs. the February 2016 reading of -$148b and the prior record low from August 2014 of -$183b. Similar increases in net free credit in 2000 and 2007 coincided with market peaks and deeper pullbacks. If the market drops and triggers margin calls, investors do not have cash in their accounts and would be forced to sell stocks or get cash from other sources to meet the margin calls. In our view, this would exacerbate an equity market sell-off.
11. The high yield market remains a risk – both the US high yield index (H0A0) and S&P 500 are into resistance. High yield OAS has similar pattern to early 2008, just before the depths of the financial crisis, and may widen further.
The Barclays US Corporate High Yield Average OAS has widened out of a 3-year bottom. The last time this high yield spread widened out of a similar bottom was late 2007/early 2008 when the spread completed a 4-year base. The narrowing of the OAS off the February peak is similar to that of 2008, a pullback after a breakout, which was followed by further widening out in the OAS and deeper weakness in US equities. We view this as a US equity market risk for 2016. A move back below 5.50-5.30 is needed to call this view into question.
12. Speaking of Financials, they are not acting as leadership and are hitting new relative lows in the US and across the global. New all-time relative lows for Japan Financials. This is potentially bearish for global financial markets.
13. NASDAQ 100 leadership at risk and suggests that “Generals” have begun to follow the “Troops”. Big gap resistance from January on the NDX is holding so far. We prefer the 2016 Dogs of the Dow, which have emerged as 2016 market leadership.
14. A Bearish January Barometer.
Does the January Barometer work? Based on S&P 500 data going back to 1928, January is a reasonably good predictor of the year. When January is up, the year is up 80% of the time with an average return of 13.0% and February- December is up 78% of the time with an average rise of 8.6%. When January is down, the year is up only 42% of the time with an average drop of 1.8% and February-December is up 58% of the time with an average rise of 2.1%. This compares to positive annual returns 66% of the time and an average return of 7.4% for the S&P 500 going back to 1928. February-December is up 70% of the time with an average gain of 6.1% going back to 1928. With the first five sessions of January down, the average return for the year could be between -2.2% (if the month of January is down)
15. 2016 is a Presidential Election year. The average return for an Election year with a non-1st term President is -3.2% vs. 14.1% in an Election year with a 1st term President and 7.6% for all Presidential Election years.
* * *
But apart from that, stocks are cheap and fundamentals are strong... oh wait
"This Is Where The Good News Ends" - JPM Says All Margin Subcomponents Are Rolling Over
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 15:16
In the past 60 years, there has never been a recession starting before the peak in profit margins. However, once margins have peaked, the likelihood of a downturn increases materially... We believe that the rollover in profit margins will be a constraint for equities, as profits have tended to drive most economic variables, capex and employment in particular. It will also likely have negative implications for corporate activity, especially as M&A, buybacks and dividends are at cycle highs, and US financing conditions are deteriorating.
This Is What Happens Behind Closed Doors When U.S. Presidents Meet With Fed Chairs
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 15:22
... in 1965, President Lyndon B. Johnson, who wanted cheap credit to finance the Vietnam War and his Great Society, summoned Fed chairman William McChesney Martin to his Texas ranch. There, after asking other officials to leave the room, Johnson reportedly shoved Martin against the wall as he demanding that the Fed once again hold down interest rates. Martin caved, the Fed printed money, and inflation kept climbing until the early 1980s.
Fed "Policy Error" Sparks "Best Fundamentals In Years" For Gold
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 15:35 -0400
With The Wall Street Journal once again playing down any precious metals strength and Goldman explicitly saying "sell," RBC Capitalo Markets' Tyler Broda and Alexandra Slattery are considerably more positive...
Retro Gold - Are we heading back to the 1970s?
Gold is often considered as a strong hedge for inflationary environments. The 1970s are the most commonly cited example of this phenomenon (in the US at least). Our analysis suggests that inflation is only part of the equation. As US inflation begins to re-emerge, and monetary policy around it continues to remain accommodative, the potential for lower real interest rates, at least over the medium-term, is increasing. In our view, this could create similar dynamics for the gold market as what occurred in the mid-to-late 1970s.
The recent statements from the Chairwoman of the US FOMC, Janet Yellen, suggest that global risks and the lack of central bank firepower in a low interest rate environment will likely mean that interest rates will be held lower for longer. In her speech to the Economic Club of New York in March, Ms. Yellen stated that the neutral “real Fed funds rate” (the level at which monetary policy would be neither expansionary nor contractionary) is likely close to zero. When using the core PCE measure, the current rate at -1.25% is even lower. In addition, concerns are beginning to mount for the FOMC that inflation may be coming unanchored to longer-term stable levels but to the downside. This implies the probability for lower real interest rates is likely to increase. This change in stance, and the market’s anticipation of this outcome following significant global market volatility in January/February, have helped to spur what appears to be the first sustained gold ETF buying since 2011.
Gold’s two key characteristics determining rates of investment (the most price insensitive demand category) are:
1) Positive - its ability to hold (or increase) in value through periods of market volatility and economic downturns and it is slightly Beta negative to the broader markets.
2) Negative – its lack of yield.
In a normal environment, when inflation expectations are positive, but contained or falling, real interest rates (nominal rate – inflation) have tended to be positive. In an environment such as this, the cost of owning gold is equal to this real interest rate or what is being given up vs. other yielding assets (after inflation).
In the 1970s, when inflation and inflation expectations ran sharply higher, there was little that could be done from a monetary policy perspective, as any hikes in interest rates would have meant a serious recession (not to mention the impact from other external shocks). In this environment, where accelerating inflation caused real interest rates to fall below the neutral 2% level (after moving sharply negative for a time), gold rose from ~$125/oz in 1976 to a peak of ~$800/oz in 1980.
Since 2008, the correlation between gold and real interest rates (using 10 yr US bond yields and 5yr5yr inflation swaps as a proxy for medium-term inflation) has been high. The Rsquared is 60%, with higher correlations in periods of rapid movements in real rates. This high correlation makes logical sense in a period of lower interest rates as well as lower inflation expectations. In 2012-2013, the expectations that monetary policy was on the cusp of normalising (or at least normalising over the longer-term) saw a sharp recovery in real interest rates and a declining gold price. This coincided with the sharp selloff of gold ETFs in 2013. Real rates are now trending back down again along with an increase in gold ETF demand and the gold price.
Determining the correct methodology for calculating real interest rates is difficult (in fact there are many different real rates across the curve), but for the purposes of this analysis we have used the US5yr5yr inflation swaps as the expected level of inflation and we are using the US 10 year treasury yield as the long-run interest rate.
Based on a regression analysis holding gold as the independent variable, a negative 0.5% real rate level would suggest a gold price of $1,380/oz and a negative 1.0% real rate level would suggest a gold price $1,546/oz. (Currently, we would calculate this real rate proxy as -34bp, which implies a gold price of $1,326/oz). The potential for inflation rates to move upwards and match US Treasury yields, which continue to be held down in the short-term, could create a 1970s-esque phase in real rates, in which our analysis suggests could move gold prices higher from here. We have published a global gold update increasing our price forecasts for 2016 to $1,250/oz and from 2017 onwards to $1,300/oz.
Gold investment appears to be moving towards stronger fundamentals than we have seen over the past few years
In summary, should US monetary policy not be on the path to normalization, a fundamental change in the benefit of gold ownership is taking place, and this increased investment demand should lead to higher gold prices. There is increasing upside risk to gold prices.
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 14:55 -0400
The stock surge from February is at risk, warns BofAML's Stephen Suttmeier as a plethora of bearish divergences could cap further gains from here. 2044-2022 are key nearby S&P 500 support for April, but a loss of 2022 is required to break the last higher low from 3/24 and suggest a deeper decline for the S&P 500. The following 15 risk-factors - from VIX term structure steepness to Dow Theory Sell signals - all point to a retest of the recent 1810-1820 lows.
The double bottom breakout point near 1950 is support ahead of the 1820-1810 lows. The 2067-2075 area highs could provide initial resistance ahead of 2085 (double bottom count) and the 2015 highs of 2100-2135.
Many indicators are flashing tactical bearish divergences that suggest that the rally off the Jan/Feb lows is close to its end. Many had bullish divergences (higher lows) at the Feb 11 low on the S&P 500 vs. bearish divergences (lower highs) as the S&P 500 trended higher into early April.
1. New highs for the S&P 500 advance-decline line but SPX EW vs. SPX and NYSE McClellan Oscillator say breadth momentum is diminishing.
Similar to the McClellan Oscillator, the S&P 500 equal-weighted vs. market cap weighted ratio (SPW/SPX) shows a bearish divergence (lower high for SPW/SPX vs. higher high for SPX). Bearish divergences on SPW/SPX suggest limited S&P 500 upside.
2. On-balance-volume and our Volume Intensity Model (VIM) bearishly diverge to place rally from February at risk.
Similar to our Volume Intensity Model (VIM), on-balance-volume (OBV) shows a bearish divergence off the late-March and early-April S&P 500 highs. This is similar to the divergence in late October and early November 2015.
3. The VXV/VIX & the 25-day put/call ratios have shown complacency and are near levels where the S&P 500 typically has had trouble sustaining rallies. The 25-day put/call hit levels associated with the November and May 2015 highs.
A bullish divergence for the VXV/VIX coincided with the Jan/Feb lows and moving into early April, the VXV/VIX has a lower top vs. higher highs in the S&P 500 to set up a bearish divergence. The VXV/VIX reached the overbought zone above 1.20, hitting the highest reading since March 2015. The S&P 500 has generally struggled on these extreme contrarian bearish readings in the VXV/VIX, which is a risk factor.
The CBOE 25-day total put/call ratio has dropped back to the lowest or most complacent levels seen since the S&P 500 highs in early-November at 2116 and late-May 2015 at 2135. This is contrarian bearish with the 25-day put/call reaching 0.93 on March 28 vs. 0.94 in early November and 0.92 in late May. This low put/call ratio is an April risk factor.
4. Daily MACD bearish diverges and triggers a sell signal at 1998-2000 overbought levels.
An overbought sell signal and bearish divergence for daily MACD are warning signs for the rally off the February low. Violent swings in the S&P 500 have pushed daily MACD to oversold extremes similar to 2011 as well as to overbought extremes similar to 1998-2000. Daily MACD is back at these overbought extremes. It took two months for daily MACD to go from oversold to overbought moving into both early November and late March. Investors have moved from the bearish side of the boat to the bullish side or the boat, but the boat has not yet tipped in either direction as the S&P 500 remains range-bound between the 1800 and 2100 areas.
5. A bearish breakdown/retest pattern on S&P 500 VIGOR is an intermediate to longerterm risk factor.
The US 15 Most Active Advance-Decline (A-D) line is a daily cumulative A-D line of the top 15 most heavily traded stocks in the US by share volume. When this A-D is rising, breadth for the most heavily traded stocks is bullish and reflects accumulation or buying. When this A-D line is falling, breadth for the most heavily traded stocks is bearish and reflects distribution or selling. The US most active A-D line broke down late last year and is retesting this breakdown, which is a bearish set-up.
6. A breakdown/retest pattern is a bearish set-up for the most active A-D line. The most active A-D line broke down in late 2015 and breakdowns in 2000 & 2007 preceded SPX breakdowns. This is a warning.
Big breakdowns in the most active A-D line preceded with big breakdowns for the S&P 500 in 2000 and 2007. Moving into 2016, the Most Active A-D line has a big top breakdown in place and we view this as a risk to the cyclical bull market that began in 2009.
7. The Dow Theory Sell Signal intact. Transports show a bearish non-confirmation vs. Industrials moving into April.
8. Monthly MACD remains on a sell signal from last March.
9. Bullish seasonals in April (& 2Q) even after a strong March, but May-Oct is the weakest 6-month period of the year.
10. A rise off extreme lows for net free credit (free credit balances in cash and margin accounts net of the debit balance in margin accounts) could exacerbate an equity market sell-off.
Net free credit is free credit balances in cash and margin accounts net of the debit balance in margin accounts. As of April 2015 net free credit stood at a new record low of -$227b vs. the February 2016 reading of -$148b and the prior record low from August 2014 of -$183b. Similar increases in net free credit in 2000 and 2007 coincided with market peaks and deeper pullbacks. If the market drops and triggers margin calls, investors do not have cash in their accounts and would be forced to sell stocks or get cash from other sources to meet the margin calls. In our view, this would exacerbate an equity market sell-off.
11. The high yield market remains a risk – both the US high yield index (H0A0) and S&P 500 are into resistance. High yield OAS has similar pattern to early 2008, just before the depths of the financial crisis, and may widen further.
The Barclays US Corporate High Yield Average OAS has widened out of a 3-year bottom. The last time this high yield spread widened out of a similar bottom was late 2007/early 2008 when the spread completed a 4-year base. The narrowing of the OAS off the February peak is similar to that of 2008, a pullback after a breakout, which was followed by further widening out in the OAS and deeper weakness in US equities. We view this as a US equity market risk for 2016. A move back below 5.50-5.30 is needed to call this view into question.
12. Speaking of Financials, they are not acting as leadership and are hitting new relative lows in the US and across the global. New all-time relative lows for Japan Financials. This is potentially bearish for global financial markets.
13. NASDAQ 100 leadership at risk and suggests that “Generals” have begun to follow the “Troops”. Big gap resistance from January on the NDX is holding so far. We prefer the 2016 Dogs of the Dow, which have emerged as 2016 market leadership.
14. A Bearish January Barometer.
Does the January Barometer work? Based on S&P 500 data going back to 1928, January is a reasonably good predictor of the year. When January is up, the year is up 80% of the time with an average return of 13.0% and February- December is up 78% of the time with an average rise of 8.6%. When January is down, the year is up only 42% of the time with an average drop of 1.8% and February-December is up 58% of the time with an average rise of 2.1%. This compares to positive annual returns 66% of the time and an average return of 7.4% for the S&P 500 going back to 1928. February-December is up 70% of the time with an average gain of 6.1% going back to 1928. With the first five sessions of January down, the average return for the year could be between -2.2% (if the month of January is down)
15. 2016 is a Presidential Election year. The average return for an Election year with a non-1st term President is -3.2% vs. 14.1% in an Election year with a 1st term President and 7.6% for all Presidential Election years.
* * *
But apart from that, stocks are cheap and fundamentals are strong... oh wait
"This Is Where The Good News Ends" - JPM Says All Margin Subcomponents Are Rolling Over
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 15:16
In the past 60 years, there has never been a recession starting before the peak in profit margins. However, once margins have peaked, the likelihood of a downturn increases materially... We believe that the rollover in profit margins will be a constraint for equities, as profits have tended to drive most economic variables, capex and employment in particular. It will also likely have negative implications for corporate activity, especially as M&A, buybacks and dividends are at cycle highs, and US financing conditions are deteriorating.
This Is What Happens Behind Closed Doors When U.S. Presidents Meet With Fed Chairs
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 15:22
... in 1965, President Lyndon B. Johnson, who wanted cheap credit to finance the Vietnam War and his Great Society, summoned Fed chairman William McChesney Martin to his Texas ranch. There, after asking other officials to leave the room, Johnson reportedly shoved Martin against the wall as he demanding that the Fed once again hold down interest rates. Martin caved, the Fed printed money, and inflation kept climbing until the early 1980s.
Fed "Policy Error" Sparks "Best Fundamentals In Years" For Gold
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 15:35 -0400
With The Wall Street Journal once again playing down any precious metals strength and Goldman explicitly saying "sell," RBC Capitalo Markets' Tyler Broda and Alexandra Slattery are considerably more positive...
Retro Gold - Are we heading back to the 1970s?
Gold is often considered as a strong hedge for inflationary environments. The 1970s are the most commonly cited example of this phenomenon (in the US at least). Our analysis suggests that inflation is only part of the equation. As US inflation begins to re-emerge, and monetary policy around it continues to remain accommodative, the potential for lower real interest rates, at least over the medium-term, is increasing. In our view, this could create similar dynamics for the gold market as what occurred in the mid-to-late 1970s.
The recent statements from the Chairwoman of the US FOMC, Janet Yellen, suggest that global risks and the lack of central bank firepower in a low interest rate environment will likely mean that interest rates will be held lower for longer. In her speech to the Economic Club of New York in March, Ms. Yellen stated that the neutral “real Fed funds rate” (the level at which monetary policy would be neither expansionary nor contractionary) is likely close to zero. When using the core PCE measure, the current rate at -1.25% is even lower. In addition, concerns are beginning to mount for the FOMC that inflation may be coming unanchored to longer-term stable levels but to the downside. This implies the probability for lower real interest rates is likely to increase. This change in stance, and the market’s anticipation of this outcome following significant global market volatility in January/February, have helped to spur what appears to be the first sustained gold ETF buying since 2011.
Gold’s two key characteristics determining rates of investment (the most price insensitive demand category) are:
1) Positive - its ability to hold (or increase) in value through periods of market volatility and economic downturns and it is slightly Beta negative to the broader markets.
2) Negative – its lack of yield.
In a normal environment, when inflation expectations are positive, but contained or falling, real interest rates (nominal rate – inflation) have tended to be positive. In an environment such as this, the cost of owning gold is equal to this real interest rate or what is being given up vs. other yielding assets (after inflation).
In the 1970s, when inflation and inflation expectations ran sharply higher, there was little that could be done from a monetary policy perspective, as any hikes in interest rates would have meant a serious recession (not to mention the impact from other external shocks). In this environment, where accelerating inflation caused real interest rates to fall below the neutral 2% level (after moving sharply negative for a time), gold rose from ~$125/oz in 1976 to a peak of ~$800/oz in 1980.
Since 2008, the correlation between gold and real interest rates (using 10 yr US bond yields and 5yr5yr inflation swaps as a proxy for medium-term inflation) has been high. The Rsquared is 60%, with higher correlations in periods of rapid movements in real rates. This high correlation makes logical sense in a period of lower interest rates as well as lower inflation expectations. In 2012-2013, the expectations that monetary policy was on the cusp of normalising (or at least normalising over the longer-term) saw a sharp recovery in real interest rates and a declining gold price. This coincided with the sharp selloff of gold ETFs in 2013. Real rates are now trending back down again along with an increase in gold ETF demand and the gold price.
Determining the correct methodology for calculating real interest rates is difficult (in fact there are many different real rates across the curve), but for the purposes of this analysis we have used the US5yr5yr inflation swaps as the expected level of inflation and we are using the US 10 year treasury yield as the long-run interest rate.
Based on a regression analysis holding gold as the independent variable, a negative 0.5% real rate level would suggest a gold price of $1,380/oz and a negative 1.0% real rate level would suggest a gold price $1,546/oz. (Currently, we would calculate this real rate proxy as -34bp, which implies a gold price of $1,326/oz). The potential for inflation rates to move upwards and match US Treasury yields, which continue to be held down in the short-term, could create a 1970s-esque phase in real rates, in which our analysis suggests could move gold prices higher from here. We have published a global gold update increasing our price forecasts for 2016 to $1,250/oz and from 2017 onwards to $1,300/oz.
Gold investment appears to be moving towards stronger fundamentals than we have seen over the past few years
In summary, should US monetary policy not be on the path to normalization, a fundamental change in the benefit of gold ownership is taking place, and this increased investment demand should lead to higher gold prices. There is increasing upside risk to gold prices.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
por Fenix » Lun Abr 11, 2016 7:39 pm
For 6th Year Running, Economists' Growth Expectations Collapse
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 15:55
With The Atlanta Fed's slashing its Q1 GDP growth expectations to just 0.1%, consensus estimates for 2016 growth have collapsed. However, none of this should surprise anyone as this is the sixth year in a row that over-optimistic growth hopes devolve into hype for more stimulus and a hockey-stick just around the corner. While expectations have not improved since 2010, at least one these dreadful soothsayers is defending this year's drop in the same old manner - by promising that H2 will be better, for these 4 reasons...
Behold Accounting Magic 101: This Is How Alcoa Just "Beat" Consensus EPS
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 16:44 -0400
Some companies are notorious for buying back billions in stock in order to mask the decline in their earnings by reducing the number of shares outstanding. Alcoa, which still has a major debt overhang from the last financial crisis, is unable to do that as it simply does not have the free cash flow to dedicate to shareholder friendly activities. Instead, Klaus Kleinfeld's company is forced to resort to an even more primitive form of EPS fudging: massive quarterly EPS addbacks.
And as we showed last quarter, AA's addbacks just hit an all time high.
We were curious if as a result of this "bathwater" quarter, Alcoa would finally cease this deceptive practice.
The answer: not even close.
Moments ago, Alcoa reported adjusted EPS of $0.07, or $108 million in adjusted net income, beating consensus expectations of $0.02 handily (nevermind that it missed consensus revenues of $5.2 billion by a whopping $250 million, a drop of 15% from a year ago).
There is, alas, a problem with these adjusted "earnings", because on a actual, GAAP basis, Alcoa actually reported its latest GAAP whopper, according to which GAAP EPS was actually... $0.00, thanks to a paltry $16mm in net income.
How did Alcoa "fill the gap?" Simple: with its usual millions in "one-time" charges, in this case $61 million.
But it is on an LTM basis that the company has absolutely outdone itself.
Here, things get downright comical, because whereas Alcoa's GAAP Net Income for the LTM period ended December 31 was a net loss of $501 million, when one adds back all the charges incurred over the past 12 months, the "net income", on a non-GAAP Basis of course, soars to a ridiculous $532 million. The plug? "One-time, non-recurring" addbacks and various other restructuring charges amounting to over $1 billion for the LTM period!
Said otherwise, more than all of Alcoa's earnings in the last 12 months were the result of "non-recurring" addbacks, "one-time" charges, and other proforma changes to the non-GAAP net income number.
And that, ladies and gentlemtn, is non-GAAP accounting magic 101.
Oh, we almost forgot: here is the history of Alcoa's $0.02 EPS "consensus" which the company had to take a record addback in order to "beat"...
And the cherry on top? This:
The business reduced its workforce by 600 positions in the first quarter and plans a further reduction of 400 positions. Additionally, given the current market environment, it is evaluating another reduction of up to 1,000 positions.
What current market environment? Isn't everything recovering now? And are those GAAP or non-GAAP jobs?
Finally, some tangential observations. It appears the company's treasurer is so busy, he can't even check the company's primary excel spreadsheet.
And then remember when Alcoa beat last quarter on non-GAAP EPS of $0.07? Well, that was just quietly revised to $0.04.
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 15:55
With The Atlanta Fed's slashing its Q1 GDP growth expectations to just 0.1%, consensus estimates for 2016 growth have collapsed. However, none of this should surprise anyone as this is the sixth year in a row that over-optimistic growth hopes devolve into hype for more stimulus and a hockey-stick just around the corner. While expectations have not improved since 2010, at least one these dreadful soothsayers is defending this year's drop in the same old manner - by promising that H2 will be better, for these 4 reasons...
Behold Accounting Magic 101: This Is How Alcoa Just "Beat" Consensus EPS
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 16:44 -0400
Some companies are notorious for buying back billions in stock in order to mask the decline in their earnings by reducing the number of shares outstanding. Alcoa, which still has a major debt overhang from the last financial crisis, is unable to do that as it simply does not have the free cash flow to dedicate to shareholder friendly activities. Instead, Klaus Kleinfeld's company is forced to resort to an even more primitive form of EPS fudging: massive quarterly EPS addbacks.
And as we showed last quarter, AA's addbacks just hit an all time high.
We were curious if as a result of this "bathwater" quarter, Alcoa would finally cease this deceptive practice.
The answer: not even close.
Moments ago, Alcoa reported adjusted EPS of $0.07, or $108 million in adjusted net income, beating consensus expectations of $0.02 handily (nevermind that it missed consensus revenues of $5.2 billion by a whopping $250 million, a drop of 15% from a year ago).
There is, alas, a problem with these adjusted "earnings", because on a actual, GAAP basis, Alcoa actually reported its latest GAAP whopper, according to which GAAP EPS was actually... $0.00, thanks to a paltry $16mm in net income.
How did Alcoa "fill the gap?" Simple: with its usual millions in "one-time" charges, in this case $61 million.
But it is on an LTM basis that the company has absolutely outdone itself.
Here, things get downright comical, because whereas Alcoa's GAAP Net Income for the LTM period ended December 31 was a net loss of $501 million, when one adds back all the charges incurred over the past 12 months, the "net income", on a non-GAAP Basis of course, soars to a ridiculous $532 million. The plug? "One-time, non-recurring" addbacks and various other restructuring charges amounting to over $1 billion for the LTM period!
Said otherwise, more than all of Alcoa's earnings in the last 12 months were the result of "non-recurring" addbacks, "one-time" charges, and other proforma changes to the non-GAAP net income number.
And that, ladies and gentlemtn, is non-GAAP accounting magic 101.
Oh, we almost forgot: here is the history of Alcoa's $0.02 EPS "consensus" which the company had to take a record addback in order to "beat"...
And the cherry on top? This:
The business reduced its workforce by 600 positions in the first quarter and plans a further reduction of 400 positions. Additionally, given the current market environment, it is evaluating another reduction of up to 1,000 positions.
What current market environment? Isn't everything recovering now? And are those GAAP or non-GAAP jobs?
Finally, some tangential observations. It appears the company's treasurer is so busy, he can't even check the company's primary excel spreadsheet.
And then remember when Alcoa beat last quarter on non-GAAP EPS of $0.07? Well, that was just quietly revised to $0.04.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
por Fenix » Lun Abr 11, 2016 7:41 pm
"Mr. Yen" Warns USDJPY May Hit 100 By Year-End
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 17:30
Having correctly predicting the yen’s advance beyond 115 and then 110 per dollar, former Japanese Finance Minister Eisuke Sakakibara now says Japan’s currency may strengthen to 100 by year-end. While noting that 105 would be "no problem" for Japan's economy, we suspect the implied drop in the S&P 500 to 1550 would be a problem for the world's economy.
BofA Warns "Europe Looks Frightening" - Trades Like 2001, 2008
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 18:20
"Europe looks concerning" warns BofAML's Stephen Suttmeier, pointing out, rather ominously that the broad European index - STOXX 600 - is trading like it did in 2001 & 2008.
A Tale Of Two Car Companies
04/11/2016 18:45 -0400
Via EricPetersAutos.com,
Here’s a tale of two start-up car companies: Elio Motors and... Tesla.
hurray Cronyism!
One execrable, the other admirable.
Elio is developing a low-cost ($6,800 to start) very high mileage (80-plus MPG) commuter car.
Tesla builds expensive toys.
This – the building of toys – is not of itself an execrable activity. Lamborghinis and Porsches are toys, too.
They are expensive, impractical things.
As is the Tesla – including the new Model 3. It’s expensive ($35k to start; probably closer to $40k once all is said and done) and impractical. Not a car for cold places or long trips … unless you don’t mind long waits.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that… if that’s what you’re into.
travesty
Lambos are also finicky and not good for very much except going very fast and advertising that you’ve got funds.
The execrable element is that Tesla expects you to pay for its toys. Not for yourself. But so that other people – affluent people – can play with them.
It’s exactly like giving – being forced to give – your orthodontist a fat check so he can go out and buy a new 911 or Gallardo.
Elio, in contrast, merely offers its cars – which you’re free to buy or not. And if you don’t want one, they’re not gonna force you (via Uncle) to “help” other people buy one.
So, which one gets the press? The adulation of the press? The seal-clapping encomiums on Today and Good Morning America and such?
How many people have even heard of Elio Motors?
How many have not heard of Tesla?
crony pals
The reason for this disparity is easy enough to grok:
Tesla makes collectivism sexy – and that makes Tesla popular with collectivists.
Selling the Green Agenda has not been easy because it seems pretty dreary. Pay more for shittier things. But the Tesla looks good. This allows preening.
It is quick – which allows bragging.
And – so they say – it is green, too.
This renders cost no object.
It doesn’t matter that the entire venture is a Jenga castle of crony capitalism; that every “sale” entails an extortion payment extracted from a real car company – a “carbon credit” that is “sold” to offset the less-than-Teslian characteristics of functionally viable but “greenhouse gas” producing conventional cars… that it is necessary to bribe even rich people who have money to burn on toys with thousands of dollars of tax write-offs (the costs for these written off onto the backs of those who pay the taxes) in order to complete each transaction.
fanboi
No. The Tesla is a long-legged, G-string-wearing planet-saving sex machine… and can do no wrong. Sense is blind to the realities behind the flash in the same way that men’s reason is often blinded – and their judgment impaired – by a hot piece of ass. No matter her liabilities.
The Elio is not sexy. It is a thumb in the eye to everything the Tesla is and stands for.
It is practical; an ideal city car/commuter car well-suited to Froggering around in busy urban traffic and which can be parked pretty much anywhere a motorcycle fits.
It is cheap. A new car for just under $7k – or about half the price of the typical economy compact sedan and about a fifth the cost of a Tesla 3.
Which also means it costs less to insure.
Most of all – and unlike the Tesla – the Elio is economical. Eighty-plus MPG renders the cost of gas a near-irrelevance, even if it doubles. And makes the Tesla look ridiculous, if the criteria is economy.
Or even “saving the planet.”
How much less energy goes into making an Elio? It does not have hundreds of pounds of lethally noxious chemical batteries that required Earth rape to obtain. Nor does it depend upon C02-producing utility plants for its motive power.
But most of all, it is a car that many people could simply write a check for – that is, bought outright, no loan. No debt. And that is anathema to the Banksters who run the country and who push Teslas via the media they own, the bought-and-paid-for parrots who read the Tele-e-Prompters and know what the Talking Points are.
fanboi2
Can’t have people not chained to beefy monthly payments for the next seven years. Can’t have a car that doesn’t include multi-leveled kickbacks of other people’s money (i.e., “incentives”) to make each “sale.”
The Elio is sane.
A car ideally suited to every consideration of our times.
The Tesla, insane.
It touts the fact that it uses no gasoline, so no worries about the cost of gas. But you pay (with “help” from Uncle) $35,000-plus to “save” on the cost of fuel.
It touts performance – quick acceleration. But if its ability to accelerate quickly is used much, the car’s range is reduced a lot. What good is a quick car that can’t go very far?
But it’s sexy – and it’s “green” – and that makes it politically appealing, even if it’s utterly ridiculous as an economic proposition, absurd as a machine and noxious as as an example of the most grotesque manifestation of crony capitalism I’m aware of – exceeding even the effrontery of the ethanol lobby.
Cue the Zapruder film….
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 17:30
Having correctly predicting the yen’s advance beyond 115 and then 110 per dollar, former Japanese Finance Minister Eisuke Sakakibara now says Japan’s currency may strengthen to 100 by year-end. While noting that 105 would be "no problem" for Japan's economy, we suspect the implied drop in the S&P 500 to 1550 would be a problem for the world's economy.
BofA Warns "Europe Looks Frightening" - Trades Like 2001, 2008
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/11/2016 - 18:20
"Europe looks concerning" warns BofAML's Stephen Suttmeier, pointing out, rather ominously that the broad European index - STOXX 600 - is trading like it did in 2001 & 2008.
A Tale Of Two Car Companies
04/11/2016 18:45 -0400
Via EricPetersAutos.com,
Here’s a tale of two start-up car companies: Elio Motors and... Tesla.
hurray Cronyism!
One execrable, the other admirable.
Elio is developing a low-cost ($6,800 to start) very high mileage (80-plus MPG) commuter car.
Tesla builds expensive toys.
This – the building of toys – is not of itself an execrable activity. Lamborghinis and Porsches are toys, too.
They are expensive, impractical things.
As is the Tesla – including the new Model 3. It’s expensive ($35k to start; probably closer to $40k once all is said and done) and impractical. Not a car for cold places or long trips … unless you don’t mind long waits.
Not that there’s anything wrong with that… if that’s what you’re into.
travesty
Lambos are also finicky and not good for very much except going very fast and advertising that you’ve got funds.
The execrable element is that Tesla expects you to pay for its toys. Not for yourself. But so that other people – affluent people – can play with them.
It’s exactly like giving – being forced to give – your orthodontist a fat check so he can go out and buy a new 911 or Gallardo.
Elio, in contrast, merely offers its cars – which you’re free to buy or not. And if you don’t want one, they’re not gonna force you (via Uncle) to “help” other people buy one.
So, which one gets the press? The adulation of the press? The seal-clapping encomiums on Today and Good Morning America and such?
How many people have even heard of Elio Motors?
How many have not heard of Tesla?
crony pals
The reason for this disparity is easy enough to grok:
Tesla makes collectivism sexy – and that makes Tesla popular with collectivists.
Selling the Green Agenda has not been easy because it seems pretty dreary. Pay more for shittier things. But the Tesla looks good. This allows preening.
It is quick – which allows bragging.
And – so they say – it is green, too.
This renders cost no object.
It doesn’t matter that the entire venture is a Jenga castle of crony capitalism; that every “sale” entails an extortion payment extracted from a real car company – a “carbon credit” that is “sold” to offset the less-than-Teslian characteristics of functionally viable but “greenhouse gas” producing conventional cars… that it is necessary to bribe even rich people who have money to burn on toys with thousands of dollars of tax write-offs (the costs for these written off onto the backs of those who pay the taxes) in order to complete each transaction.
fanboi
No. The Tesla is a long-legged, G-string-wearing planet-saving sex machine… and can do no wrong. Sense is blind to the realities behind the flash in the same way that men’s reason is often blinded – and their judgment impaired – by a hot piece of ass. No matter her liabilities.
The Elio is not sexy. It is a thumb in the eye to everything the Tesla is and stands for.
It is practical; an ideal city car/commuter car well-suited to Froggering around in busy urban traffic and which can be parked pretty much anywhere a motorcycle fits.
It is cheap. A new car for just under $7k – or about half the price of the typical economy compact sedan and about a fifth the cost of a Tesla 3.
Which also means it costs less to insure.
Most of all – and unlike the Tesla – the Elio is economical. Eighty-plus MPG renders the cost of gas a near-irrelevance, even if it doubles. And makes the Tesla look ridiculous, if the criteria is economy.
Or even “saving the planet.”
How much less energy goes into making an Elio? It does not have hundreds of pounds of lethally noxious chemical batteries that required Earth rape to obtain. Nor does it depend upon C02-producing utility plants for its motive power.
But most of all, it is a car that many people could simply write a check for – that is, bought outright, no loan. No debt. And that is anathema to the Banksters who run the country and who push Teslas via the media they own, the bought-and-paid-for parrots who read the Tele-e-Prompters and know what the Talking Points are.
fanboi2
Can’t have people not chained to beefy monthly payments for the next seven years. Can’t have a car that doesn’t include multi-leveled kickbacks of other people’s money (i.e., “incentives”) to make each “sale.”
The Elio is sane.
A car ideally suited to every consideration of our times.
The Tesla, insane.
It touts the fact that it uses no gasoline, so no worries about the cost of gas. But you pay (with “help” from Uncle) $35,000-plus to “save” on the cost of fuel.
It touts performance – quick acceleration. But if its ability to accelerate quickly is used much, the car’s range is reduced a lot. What good is a quick car that can’t go very far?
But it’s sexy – and it’s “green” – and that makes it politically appealing, even if it’s utterly ridiculous as an economic proposition, absurd as a machine and noxious as as an example of the most grotesque manifestation of crony capitalism I’m aware of – exceeding even the effrontery of the ethanol lobby.
Cue the Zapruder film….
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
por Fenix » Lun Abr 11, 2016 7:43 pm
White House Issues Following Statement After Meeting Between Obama And Yellen
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 19:01 -0400
The closed-door meeting between Obama, Biden and Yellen has concluded, and moments ago the White House released the following statement:
"The President and Chair Yellen met this afternoon in the Oval Office as part of an ongoing dialogue on the state of the economy. They discussed both the near and long-term growth outlook, the state of the labor market, inequality, and potential risks to the economy, both in the United States and globally. They also discussed the significant progress that has been made through the continued implementation of Wall Street Reform to strengthen our financial system and protect consumers."
Of course, for the actual transcript of what was said, we will have to rely on some conscientious White House leaker putting it on BitTorrent, but here is our modest attempt at translating what was and what was not said: no market crashes allowed until November.
Former IMF Chief Economist Admits Japan's "Endgame" Scenario Is Now In Play
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 19:16 -0400
Back in October 2014, just after the BOJ drastically expanded its QE operation, we warned that the biggest risk facing the BOJ (and the ECB, and the Fed, and all other central banks actively soaking up securities from the open market) was a lack of monetizable supply. We cited Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors in Tokyo, who said that at the scale of its current debt monetization, the BOJ could end up owning half of the JGB market by as early as in 2018. He added that "The BOJ is basically declaring that Japan will need to fix its long-term problems by 2018, or risk becoming a failed nation."
Which is why 17 months ago we predicted that, contrary to expectations of even more QE from Kuroda, we said "the BOJ will not boost QE, and if anything will have no choice but to start tapering it down - just like the Fed did when its interventions created the current illiquidity in the US govt market - especially since liquidity in the Japanese government market is now non-existent and getting worse by the day."
As part of our conclusion, we said we do not "expect the media to grasp the profound implications of this analysis not only for the BOJ but for all other central banks: we expect this to be summer of 2016's business."
Since then, the forecast has panned out largely as expected: both the ECB and BOJ, finding themselves collateral constrained, were forced to expand into other, even more unconventional methods of easing, whether it be NIRP in the case of the BOJ, or the outright purchases of corporate bonds as the ECB did a month ago.
* * *
Then, in September of 2015, the IMF realized the severity of what our forecast meant for Japan, and released a working paper with the non-pretentious title "Portfolio Rebalancing in Japan; Constraints and Implications for Quantitative Easing", which however had momentous implications because it was a replica of what we had said a year earlier.
In the paper, the IMF said that the Bank of Japan may need to reduce the pace of its bond purchases in a few years due to a shortage of sellers. The paper predicted a world in which, just as we cautioned, "the BoJ may need to taper its JGB purchases in 2017 or 2018, given collateral needs of banks, asset-liability management constraints of insurers, and announced asset allocation targets of major pension funds... there is likely to be a “minimum” level of demand for JGBs from banks, pension funds, and insurance companies due to collateral needs, asset allocation targets, and asset-liability management (ALM) requirements. As such, the sustainability of the BoJ's current pace of JGB purchases may become an issue."
The paper's shocking punchline was how Japan would survive this inevitable phase shift, or as we rhetorically asked, what happens when the regime shifts from the current buying phase to its inverse: The IMF response: "As this limit approaches and once the BoJ starts to exit, the market could move from a situation of shortage to one with excess supply. The term premium could jump depending on whether the BoJ shrinks its balance sheet and on the fiscal deficit over the medium term.
When considering that by 2018 the BOJ market will have become the world's most illiquid (as the BOJ will hold 60% or more of all issues), the IMF's final warning is that "such a change in market conditions could trigger the potential for abrupt jumps in yields."
Or as we put last September, "at that moment the BOJ will finally lose control."
We even timed it: "But before we get to the QE endgame, we first need to get the interim point: the one where first the markets and then the media realizes that the BOJ - the one central banks whose bank monetization is keeping the world's asset levels afloat now that the ECB has admitted it is having "problems" finding sellers - will have no choice but to taper, with all the associated downstream effects on domestic and global asset prices.
It's all downhill from there, and not just for Japan but all other "safe collateral" monetizing central banks, which explains the real reason the Fed is in a rush to hike: so it can at least engage in some more QE when every other central bank fails.
But there's no rush: remember to give the market and the media the usual 6-9 month head start to grasp the significance of all of the above.
Sure enough, it took the market about 6 months to finally grasp that the BOJ is out of ammo: the result has been a dramatic surge in the Yen coupled with a plunge in the Nikkei, meanwhile Kuroda is left scratching his head what he can do in a world in which the G-20 have specifically prohibited him from easing and making the dollar stronger as that will lead to a return of China's weak currency-driven, capital outflow crisis.
As for our other forecast from October 2014 in which we said "expect the media to grasp the profound implications of this analysis not only for the BOJ but for all other central banks: we expect this to be summer of 2016's business" this too was quite prescient. Because while summer is just around the corner, earlier today the mainstream media, in this case the Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, finally caught up with a piece titled: "Olivier Blanchard eyes ugly 'end game' for Japan on debt spiral." In it he cites none other than the IMF's former chief economist, Olivier Blanchard who left the IMF just at the time the IMF's study from last September was made public.
The content of Pritchard's piece should be familiar to anyone who has followed our musings on this topic for the past two years.
In it, he says that "Japan is heading for a full-blown solvency crisis as the country runs out of local investors and may ultimately be forced to inflate away its debt in a desperate end-game, one of the world’s most influential economists has warned."
From the article:
Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said zero interest rates have disguised the underlying danger posed by Japan’s public debt, likely to reach 250pc of GDP this year and spiralling upwards on an unsustainable trajectory.
Prof Blanchard said the Japanese treasury will have to tap foreign funds to plug the gap and this will prove far more costly, threatening to bring the long-feared funding crisis to a head.
“If and when US hedge funds become the marginal Japanese debt, they are going to ask for a substantial spread,” he told the Telegraph, speaking at the Ambrosetti forum of world policy-makers on Lake Como.
Analysts say this would transform the country’s debt dynamics and kill the illusion of solvency, possibly in a sudden, non-linear fashion.
That moment in which the illusion dies, is precisely the phase shift which we descibed in September as the moment "market conditions could trigger the potential for abrupt jumps in yields."
Said otherwise, from plummeting deflation Japan would be faced with soaring yields and hyperinflation as the last recourse buyer, the BOJ, is swept aside.
Prof Blanchard, now at the Peterson Institute in Washington, said the Bank of Japan will come under mounting political pressure to fund the budget directly, at which point the country risks lurching from deflation to an inflationary denouement.
“One day the BoJ may well get a call from the finance ministry saying please think about us – it is a life or death question - and keep rates at zero for a bit longer,” he said.
Pritchard here catches up to what we said in October of 2014, namely that the "BoJ is soaking up the entire budget deficit under Govenror Haruhiko Kuroda as he pursues quantitative easing a l’outrance." Incidentally, this is the same Pritchard who several years ago was lauding Japan's QE.
He next points out something we have also warned about for year: "the central bank owned 34.5pc of the Japanese government bond market as of February, and this is expected to reach 50pc by 2017."
This is us circa last September.
What comes next is the scary part, the part we have been focusing on for years:
Prof Blanchard did not elaborate on the implications of Japan’s woes for the global financial system, but they would surely be dramatic and there are growing fears that this could happen within five years. Japan is still the world’s third largest economy by far. It is also the global laboratory for an ageing crisis that the rest of us will face to varying degrees.
Once markets begin to suspect that Tokyo is deliberately engineering an escape from its $10 trillion public debt trap by means of an inflationary ‘stealth default’, matters could spin out of control quickly.
It might lead to an abrupt reappraisal of sovereign debt risk in other parts of the world, especially in Europe with its own Japanese pathologies of low-growth and bad demographics. Roughly $7 trillion of debt is trading at negative yields worldwide, an accident waiting to happen for the bond market.
After Japan comes Europe:
Prof Blanchard said the risk for the eurozone is the election of populist “rogue governments” that let rip with spending in defiance of Brussels. “Investors would have serious thoughts about buying their sovereign bonds,” he said. The European Central Bank would be legally prohibited from activating its back-stop mechanism (OMT) to prevent yields soaring since these governments would not be in compliance with EU rules. “Some of them have very high debt and presumably would have to default,” he said.
Perhaps, or the ECB will simply unleash the first helicopter money if it can get over the loud German chorus of disagreement. Although once Europe launches Helicopter money, it will be promptly followed by the US as the global monetary devaluation round enters the final sprint. It is no coincidence that earlier today none other than Ben Bernanke admitted that "Helicopter Money May Be The Best Available Alternative."
What shape the final stand of failed monetary policy takes, is irrelevant. What is relevant, is that for the first time, not only is the Japanese doomsday scenario finally in the mainstream press, but it is acknowledged by none other than one of the Keynesian luminaries AEP is so impressed by:
Prof Blanchard is one of the world’s top theoretical economists over the last quarter century and might have won the Nobel Prize by now if he had not been cajoled into IMF service by his fellow Frenchman, Dominique Straus-Kahn.
He transformed the IMF into a brain-trust of progressive ‘Keynesian’ thinking, much to the fury of Berlin. A leaked document from the German finance ministry said the institution should be renamed the ‘Inflation Maximizing Fund’.
Evans-Pritchard's conclusion:
"Professor Blanchard has had the last laugh on that joke. Seven years after the Lehman crisis the eurozone is in outright deflation and yields on 10-year German Bunds are trading at an historic low 0.11pc. Touché."
Actually let's check back in another 7 years, because now that even one of the world's "top theoretical economists" acknowledges that the endgame for trillions in debt ends in a hyperinflationary supernova, and not a deflationary black hole, all those years of sliding interest rates around the globe are about to be flipped on their head. At that point it will be the Germans who are laughing last.
Sadly, there will be nothing else to laugh about as the Keynesian "progressive thinkers" will have finally reached the inevitable and disastrous "end-game" of their failed religion.
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 19:01 -0400
The closed-door meeting between Obama, Biden and Yellen has concluded, and moments ago the White House released the following statement:
"The President and Chair Yellen met this afternoon in the Oval Office as part of an ongoing dialogue on the state of the economy. They discussed both the near and long-term growth outlook, the state of the labor market, inequality, and potential risks to the economy, both in the United States and globally. They also discussed the significant progress that has been made through the continued implementation of Wall Street Reform to strengthen our financial system and protect consumers."
Of course, for the actual transcript of what was said, we will have to rely on some conscientious White House leaker putting it on BitTorrent, but here is our modest attempt at translating what was and what was not said: no market crashes allowed until November.
Former IMF Chief Economist Admits Japan's "Endgame" Scenario Is Now In Play
Tyler D.
04/11/2016 19:16 -0400
Back in October 2014, just after the BOJ drastically expanded its QE operation, we warned that the biggest risk facing the BOJ (and the ECB, and the Fed, and all other central banks actively soaking up securities from the open market) was a lack of monetizable supply. We cited Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors in Tokyo, who said that at the scale of its current debt monetization, the BOJ could end up owning half of the JGB market by as early as in 2018. He added that "The BOJ is basically declaring that Japan will need to fix its long-term problems by 2018, or risk becoming a failed nation."
Which is why 17 months ago we predicted that, contrary to expectations of even more QE from Kuroda, we said "the BOJ will not boost QE, and if anything will have no choice but to start tapering it down - just like the Fed did when its interventions created the current illiquidity in the US govt market - especially since liquidity in the Japanese government market is now non-existent and getting worse by the day."
As part of our conclusion, we said we do not "expect the media to grasp the profound implications of this analysis not only for the BOJ but for all other central banks: we expect this to be summer of 2016's business."
Since then, the forecast has panned out largely as expected: both the ECB and BOJ, finding themselves collateral constrained, were forced to expand into other, even more unconventional methods of easing, whether it be NIRP in the case of the BOJ, or the outright purchases of corporate bonds as the ECB did a month ago.
* * *
Then, in September of 2015, the IMF realized the severity of what our forecast meant for Japan, and released a working paper with the non-pretentious title "Portfolio Rebalancing in Japan; Constraints and Implications for Quantitative Easing", which however had momentous implications because it was a replica of what we had said a year earlier.
In the paper, the IMF said that the Bank of Japan may need to reduce the pace of its bond purchases in a few years due to a shortage of sellers. The paper predicted a world in which, just as we cautioned, "the BoJ may need to taper its JGB purchases in 2017 or 2018, given collateral needs of banks, asset-liability management constraints of insurers, and announced asset allocation targets of major pension funds... there is likely to be a “minimum” level of demand for JGBs from banks, pension funds, and insurance companies due to collateral needs, asset allocation targets, and asset-liability management (ALM) requirements. As such, the sustainability of the BoJ's current pace of JGB purchases may become an issue."
The paper's shocking punchline was how Japan would survive this inevitable phase shift, or as we rhetorically asked, what happens when the regime shifts from the current buying phase to its inverse: The IMF response: "As this limit approaches and once the BoJ starts to exit, the market could move from a situation of shortage to one with excess supply. The term premium could jump depending on whether the BoJ shrinks its balance sheet and on the fiscal deficit over the medium term.
When considering that by 2018 the BOJ market will have become the world's most illiquid (as the BOJ will hold 60% or more of all issues), the IMF's final warning is that "such a change in market conditions could trigger the potential for abrupt jumps in yields."
Or as we put last September, "at that moment the BOJ will finally lose control."
We even timed it: "But before we get to the QE endgame, we first need to get the interim point: the one where first the markets and then the media realizes that the BOJ - the one central banks whose bank monetization is keeping the world's asset levels afloat now that the ECB has admitted it is having "problems" finding sellers - will have no choice but to taper, with all the associated downstream effects on domestic and global asset prices.
It's all downhill from there, and not just for Japan but all other "safe collateral" monetizing central banks, which explains the real reason the Fed is in a rush to hike: so it can at least engage in some more QE when every other central bank fails.
But there's no rush: remember to give the market and the media the usual 6-9 month head start to grasp the significance of all of the above.
Sure enough, it took the market about 6 months to finally grasp that the BOJ is out of ammo: the result has been a dramatic surge in the Yen coupled with a plunge in the Nikkei, meanwhile Kuroda is left scratching his head what he can do in a world in which the G-20 have specifically prohibited him from easing and making the dollar stronger as that will lead to a return of China's weak currency-driven, capital outflow crisis.
As for our other forecast from October 2014 in which we said "expect the media to grasp the profound implications of this analysis not only for the BOJ but for all other central banks: we expect this to be summer of 2016's business" this too was quite prescient. Because while summer is just around the corner, earlier today the mainstream media, in this case the Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, finally caught up with a piece titled: "Olivier Blanchard eyes ugly 'end game' for Japan on debt spiral." In it he cites none other than the IMF's former chief economist, Olivier Blanchard who left the IMF just at the time the IMF's study from last September was made public.
The content of Pritchard's piece should be familiar to anyone who has followed our musings on this topic for the past two years.
In it, he says that "Japan is heading for a full-blown solvency crisis as the country runs out of local investors and may ultimately be forced to inflate away its debt in a desperate end-game, one of the world’s most influential economists has warned."
From the article:
Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said zero interest rates have disguised the underlying danger posed by Japan’s public debt, likely to reach 250pc of GDP this year and spiralling upwards on an unsustainable trajectory.
Prof Blanchard said the Japanese treasury will have to tap foreign funds to plug the gap and this will prove far more costly, threatening to bring the long-feared funding crisis to a head.
“If and when US hedge funds become the marginal Japanese debt, they are going to ask for a substantial spread,” he told the Telegraph, speaking at the Ambrosetti forum of world policy-makers on Lake Como.
Analysts say this would transform the country’s debt dynamics and kill the illusion of solvency, possibly in a sudden, non-linear fashion.
That moment in which the illusion dies, is precisely the phase shift which we descibed in September as the moment "market conditions could trigger the potential for abrupt jumps in yields."
Said otherwise, from plummeting deflation Japan would be faced with soaring yields and hyperinflation as the last recourse buyer, the BOJ, is swept aside.
Prof Blanchard, now at the Peterson Institute in Washington, said the Bank of Japan will come under mounting political pressure to fund the budget directly, at which point the country risks lurching from deflation to an inflationary denouement.
“One day the BoJ may well get a call from the finance ministry saying please think about us – it is a life or death question - and keep rates at zero for a bit longer,” he said.
Pritchard here catches up to what we said in October of 2014, namely that the "BoJ is soaking up the entire budget deficit under Govenror Haruhiko Kuroda as he pursues quantitative easing a l’outrance." Incidentally, this is the same Pritchard who several years ago was lauding Japan's QE.
He next points out something we have also warned about for year: "the central bank owned 34.5pc of the Japanese government bond market as of February, and this is expected to reach 50pc by 2017."
This is us circa last September.
What comes next is the scary part, the part we have been focusing on for years:
Prof Blanchard did not elaborate on the implications of Japan’s woes for the global financial system, but they would surely be dramatic and there are growing fears that this could happen within five years. Japan is still the world’s third largest economy by far. It is also the global laboratory for an ageing crisis that the rest of us will face to varying degrees.
Once markets begin to suspect that Tokyo is deliberately engineering an escape from its $10 trillion public debt trap by means of an inflationary ‘stealth default’, matters could spin out of control quickly.
It might lead to an abrupt reappraisal of sovereign debt risk in other parts of the world, especially in Europe with its own Japanese pathologies of low-growth and bad demographics. Roughly $7 trillion of debt is trading at negative yields worldwide, an accident waiting to happen for the bond market.
After Japan comes Europe:
Prof Blanchard said the risk for the eurozone is the election of populist “rogue governments” that let rip with spending in defiance of Brussels. “Investors would have serious thoughts about buying their sovereign bonds,” he said. The European Central Bank would be legally prohibited from activating its back-stop mechanism (OMT) to prevent yields soaring since these governments would not be in compliance with EU rules. “Some of them have very high debt and presumably would have to default,” he said.
Perhaps, or the ECB will simply unleash the first helicopter money if it can get over the loud German chorus of disagreement. Although once Europe launches Helicopter money, it will be promptly followed by the US as the global monetary devaluation round enters the final sprint. It is no coincidence that earlier today none other than Ben Bernanke admitted that "Helicopter Money May Be The Best Available Alternative."
What shape the final stand of failed monetary policy takes, is irrelevant. What is relevant, is that for the first time, not only is the Japanese doomsday scenario finally in the mainstream press, but it is acknowledged by none other than one of the Keynesian luminaries AEP is so impressed by:
Prof Blanchard is one of the world’s top theoretical economists over the last quarter century and might have won the Nobel Prize by now if he had not been cajoled into IMF service by his fellow Frenchman, Dominique Straus-Kahn.
He transformed the IMF into a brain-trust of progressive ‘Keynesian’ thinking, much to the fury of Berlin. A leaked document from the German finance ministry said the institution should be renamed the ‘Inflation Maximizing Fund’.
Evans-Pritchard's conclusion:
"Professor Blanchard has had the last laugh on that joke. Seven years after the Lehman crisis the eurozone is in outright deflation and yields on 10-year German Bunds are trading at an historic low 0.11pc. Touché."
Actually let's check back in another 7 years, because now that even one of the world's "top theoretical economists" acknowledges that the endgame for trillions in debt ends in a hyperinflationary supernova, and not a deflationary black hole, all those years of sliding interest rates around the globe are about to be flipped on their head. At that point it will be the Germans who are laughing last.
Sadly, there will be nothing else to laugh about as the Keynesian "progressive thinkers" will have finally reached the inevitable and disastrous "end-game" of their failed religion.
- Fenix
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Re: Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
por admin » Mar Abr 19, 2016 7:48 am
Las ventas de l banca en caída libre
Wall Street banking revenue is in free-fall, and here's why
Wall Street banks reported ugly quarters for FICC trading desks, which took a beating in a volatile market.
Jon Marino | @JonMarino
28 Mins Ago
CNBC.com
Fixed income, currencies and commodities trading declines hit Wall Street hard in a volatile first quarter.
Goldman Sachs reported first-quarter earnings Tuesday morning that while crossing a low bar also saw a 47 percent drop in fixed income, currencies and commodities, or FICC, to $1.66 billion year-over-year. It was part of a report that showed revenue growth tumbling 40 percent, from $10.62 billion from the year-ago period to $6.34 billion in the first three months of 2016.
With growing uncertainty on the horizon in the second quarter, the FICC struggle could continue. In part thanks to more central banks embracing negative interest rates, S&P Global Markets Intelligence equity analyst Kenneth Leon said more FICC pain could continue on Wall Street in 2016.
"If there were an area to come back, it would be equities trading first," he said.
Andrew Burton | Getty Images
Morgan Stanley's trading revenue from debt, currencies and commodities saw revenue plunge more than 50 percent to $873 million, the bank said in its earnings announcement Monday.
Equities trading also slid year-over-year at each bank, but not nearly as much.
Morgan Stanley said in its earnings the drop reflects "lower levels of client activity in rates and foreign exchange and a challenging credit environment," as well as the divestiture of commodity businesses.
Read MoreMorgan Stanley profit more than halves as trading slumps
Other banks that reported earnings last week saw their FICC desks plagued by similar problems. FICC desks' challenges stem from a number of issues to start 2016: their relative out-performance in the first quarter a year ago, central banks' maintenance of low interest rates and international instability.
Traditional US banking business doing really well: Bove
JPMorgan Chase revealed a decline of 13 percent in fixed income markets and Bank of America said last week it saw FICC fall 17 percent. Each saw equities trading businesses post a stronger quarter than their FICC businesses.
Bank of America CFO Paul Donofrio said he thinks the second quarter is starting off far better than the first, but that volatility still could remain ahead. In late June, the UK vote on potentially exiting the European Union could again vex markets.
Read MoreBrexit makes for EU banking shakeup
"March felt, I think, a lot better than certainly January and February," he said last week on the bank's earnings call, adding, on the Brexit, "there's going to be volatility potentially around the vote and around any changes after the vote."
Citigroup also saw an 11 percent drop in fixed income markets trading compared to the previous year, the bank announced in its earnings. While Citi's FICC losses were lower than other banks', it saw greater losses in equities trading, an anomaly for the quarter.
Wall Street banking revenue is in free-fall, and here's why
Wall Street banks reported ugly quarters for FICC trading desks, which took a beating in a volatile market.
Jon Marino | @JonMarino
28 Mins Ago
CNBC.com
Fixed income, currencies and commodities trading declines hit Wall Street hard in a volatile first quarter.
Goldman Sachs reported first-quarter earnings Tuesday morning that while crossing a low bar also saw a 47 percent drop in fixed income, currencies and commodities, or FICC, to $1.66 billion year-over-year. It was part of a report that showed revenue growth tumbling 40 percent, from $10.62 billion from the year-ago period to $6.34 billion in the first three months of 2016.
With growing uncertainty on the horizon in the second quarter, the FICC struggle could continue. In part thanks to more central banks embracing negative interest rates, S&P Global Markets Intelligence equity analyst Kenneth Leon said more FICC pain could continue on Wall Street in 2016.
"If there were an area to come back, it would be equities trading first," he said.
Andrew Burton | Getty Images
Morgan Stanley's trading revenue from debt, currencies and commodities saw revenue plunge more than 50 percent to $873 million, the bank said in its earnings announcement Monday.
Equities trading also slid year-over-year at each bank, but not nearly as much.
Morgan Stanley said in its earnings the drop reflects "lower levels of client activity in rates and foreign exchange and a challenging credit environment," as well as the divestiture of commodity businesses.
Read MoreMorgan Stanley profit more than halves as trading slumps
Other banks that reported earnings last week saw their FICC desks plagued by similar problems. FICC desks' challenges stem from a number of issues to start 2016: their relative out-performance in the first quarter a year ago, central banks' maintenance of low interest rates and international instability.
Traditional US banking business doing really well: Bove
JPMorgan Chase revealed a decline of 13 percent in fixed income markets and Bank of America said last week it saw FICC fall 17 percent. Each saw equities trading businesses post a stronger quarter than their FICC businesses.
Bank of America CFO Paul Donofrio said he thinks the second quarter is starting off far better than the first, but that volatility still could remain ahead. In late June, the UK vote on potentially exiting the European Union could again vex markets.
Read MoreBrexit makes for EU banking shakeup
"March felt, I think, a lot better than certainly January and February," he said last week on the bank's earnings call, adding, on the Brexit, "there's going to be volatility potentially around the vote and around any changes after the vote."
Citigroup also saw an 11 percent drop in fixed income markets trading compared to the previous year, the bank announced in its earnings. While Citi's FICC losses were lower than other banks', it saw greater losses in equities trading, an anomaly for the quarter.
- admin
- Site Admin
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Re: Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
por admin » Mar Abr 19, 2016 7:49 am
Los inicios de casas debajo de lo esperado.
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Re: Lunes 11/04/16 Nos vamos a la segunda vuelta
por admin » Mar Abr 19, 2016 8:34 am
LAST CHANGE % CHG
DJIA 18035.45 31.29 0.17%
Nasdaq 4963.63 3.61 0.07%
S&P 500 2099.49 5.15 0.25%
Russell 2000 1139.28
DJIA 18035.45 31.29 0.17%
Nasdaq 4963.63 3.61 0.07%
S&P 500 2099.49 5.15 0.25%
Russell 2000 1139.28
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