Copec y la compra de Solgas: negocio redondo
El balón de gas se vende a S/ 40, pero su contenido en GLP es de solo S/ 9.50
El último miércoles 20, Repsol acordó vender su empresa Repsol Gas del Perú SA –que comercializa los balones de gas marca Solgas- a la empresa Abastible, subsidiaria del conglomerado chileno Copec. El precio acordado fue de US$ 302 millones, que le habría proporcionado a Repsol una ganancia bruta de US$ 244 millones, porque en 1997 Repsol pagó US$ 58 millones por el 100% de la Compañía Peruana de Gas - Solgas. Previamente, de Solgas había sido privatizada en 1992 por solo US$ 7.5 millones.
LOS ACTIVOS DE SOLGAS
Solgas es la mayor empresa en el mercado peruano de GLP, con una participación de mercado del 26%, aunque está era del 40% en la década de 1990.
Los activos que adquirió Copec a Repsol son los siguientes: un terminal para importación de GLP con 10,600 toneladas de almacenamiento, siete plantas de almacenamiento y envasado, 3,5 millones de balones (10 kilos y 45 kilos) de marca propia, más de 5,000 estanques en clientes, 57 camiones cisternas para abastecimiento de plantas y 62 camiones para abastecer distribuidores.
photo 27afa6f6-bb0c-46b3-9b6f-e560f685e131_zpsh1i6was7.jpg
El NEGOCIO DE LOS BALONES DE GAS
Hoy un artículo del diario El Comercio señala que la salida de Repsol se debe a que los bajos precios del petróleo y del gas afectan a las petroleras, que tienen que priorizar sus operaciones, pero no parece ser cierto que los bajos precios del gas afecte el negocio del GLP en Perú.
El precio de 10 kilos de GLP en el Callao es de solo S/ 9.50, según los precios de combustibles registrados por Osinergmin, pero el precio de venta de un balón de gas marca Solgas llega hasta los S/ 40, una diferencia de S/ 31.50. Si bien el envasado y la cadena de comercialización se lleva una parte de las ganancias, aún queda una considerable parte de ganancias para la empresa.
Lo cierto es que Repsol priorizará el upstream en Perú.
OTROS ACTIVOS DE REPSOL EN PERÚ
Repsol está en un proceso de desinversión en Latinoamérica desde la expropiación de YPF en Argentina hace cuatro años.
Desde entonces, Repsol ha realizado diversas ventas de sus activos en Perú. Repsol vendió su negocio de gas natural licuado a Shell en el 2013, que incluyó el 20% de Perú y asumir el papel de trader del gas natural del Lote 56, que antes era comercializado en el exterior por Repsol.
Repsol vendió el 10% de TgP, que es propietaria del gasoducto de Camisea a Pisco, por US$ 219 millones a la empresa Enagás.
Actualmente, Repsol en Perú tiene el 53.84% del Lote 57, el 35% del Lote 76, el 100% del Lote 103, el 10% del Consorcio Camisea –que explota gas natural en los Lotes 88 y 56- y el 82.39% de Refinería La Pampilla.
DATO DE COPEC
Copec es un holding chileno que lista sus acciones en la Bolsa Comercial de Santiago y es controlado por la familia Agnelini. Entre sus subsidiarias se encuentras Corpesca, que es la segunda productora mundial de harina de pescado; Celulosa Arauco y Constitución, dedicada a la producción de pulpa de celulosa y madera aserrada; Metrogas, distribuidora de gas en Santiago de Chile; la cadena de estaciones de servicio Copec, entre otras.
(GE)
Un premio Nobel nos explica cuál es el problema de los tipos negativos
Carlos Montero
Viernes, 22 de Abril del 2016 - 16:55:00
Las condiciones económicas mundiales de este año serán tan débiles como las de 2015, que fue el peor año desde la crisis financiera global de 2008. El problema subyacente, que ha afectado a la economía mundial desde la crisis y ha empeorado ligeramente, es la falta de demanda agregada global.
Ahora, en respuesta a eso, el Banco Central Europeo (BCE) ha intensificado su estímulo monetario, uniéndose al Banco de Japón y un par de otros bancos centrales, en mostrar que el "límite inferior cero" es sólo una frontera en la imaginación de los economistas convencionales.
"Y, sin embargo, en ninguna de las economías en las que se ha intentado el experimento poco ortodoxo de las tasas de interés negativas, ha habido una vuelta al crecimiento y el pleno empleo", dice el premio Nobel de Economía de 2001 Joseph E. Stiglitz. "En algunos casos, el resultado ha sido inesperado: Algunas tasas de interés han aumentado."
"Debería haber sido evidente que la mayoría de los modelos anteriores a la crisis - tanto en los modelos formales como los modelos mentales que guían a los legisladores de la mayoría de los bancos centrales - eran erróneos. Ninguno predijo la crisis; y en muy pocas de estas economías se ha restaurado el pleno empleo. El BCE elevó las tasas de interés en dos ocasiones en 2011, justo cuando la crisis del euro estaba empeorando y el desempleo estaba aumentando a niveles de dos dígitos, acercando el fantasma de la deflación.
El BCE continuó utilizando los antiguos modelos desacreditados, quizás ligeramente modificadas. En estos modelos, la tasa de interés es el instrumento fundamental de la política, que debe asegurar el buen comportamiento económico. Si una tasa de interés positiva no es suficiente, entonces una tasa de interés negativa debe ser la solución.
Pues no es así. En muchas economías - incluyendo Europa y los Estados Unidos - los tipos de interés reales (ajustados a la inflación) han sido negativos, a veces tanto como el -2%. Y, sin embargo, mientras las tasas de interés reales caían, la inversión empresarial se estancaba. Según la OCDE, el porcentaje del PIB invertido en plantas industriales y equipos se ha reducido tanto en Europa como en los EE.UU. en los últimos años. (En los EE.UU., cayó desde el 8,4% en 2000 al 6,8% en 2014; en la UE, se redujo desde el 7,5% al 5,7% durante el mismo período.) Otros datos proporcionan un panorama similar.
Claramente, la idea de que las grandes corporaciones calculan con precisión el tipo de interés al que están dispuestas a realizar inversiones es absurda. La realidad señala que las grandes empresas están sentadas en cientos de miles de millones de dólares - de hecho, trillones si sumamos todas las economías avanzadas - porque ya tienen demasiada capacidad. ¿Por qué construir más simplemente porque la tasa de interés ha caído algo más? Y las pequeñas y medianas empresas (PYMEs) que no podían acceder al crédito antes de que el BCE implementara tipos negativos, ahora tampoco pueden.
En pocas palabras, la mayoría de las empresas - especialmente las PYMEs - no pueden pedir dinero prestado a las tasas a las que cotizan las letras del Tesoro. No piden préstamos en los mercados de capitales. Piden prestado de los bancos. Y hay una gran diferencia (spread) entre las tasas de interés que fijan los bancos y las tasas de las letras del Tesoro. Por otra parte, los bancos racionan el crédito. Pueden negarse a prestar a algunas empresas. En otros casos, exigen garantías (a menudo propiedades inmobiliarias).
Puede ser una sorpresa para los que no son economistas, pero los bancos no juegan ningún papel en el modelo económico estándar que las autoridades monetarias han utilizado durante el último par de décadas. Por supuesto, si no hay bancos, no habría bancos centrales, o al contrario; pero la disonancia cognitiva rara vez ha sacudido la confianza de los bancos centrales en sus modelos.
El hecho es que la estructura de la zona euro y las políticas del BCE han asegurado que los bancos en los países con un bajo comportamiento, y en especial en los países en crisis, sean muy débiles. Los depósitos han caído, y las políticas de austeridad exigidas por Alemania están prolongando el déficit de demanda agregada y el mantenimiento de altos niveles de desempleo. En estas circunstancias, el préstamo es arriesgado, y los bancos no tienen ni el apetito ni la capacidad para prestar, en particular a las PYMEs (que típicamente generan el mayor número de puestos de trabajo).
Una disminución en la tasa de interés real al -3% o incluso el -4% no marcará ninguna diferencia apreciable. Las tasas de interés negativas dañan los balances de los bancos. A menos que los políticos tengan cuidado, las tasas de préstamo podrían aumentar y la disponibilidad del crédito descender.
Hay tres problemas adicionales. En primer lugar, unas bajas tasas de interés alientan a las empresas a invertir en tecnologías más intensivas en capital, lo que resulta en una caída de la demanda de mano de obra en el largo plazo, incluso aunque el desempleo a corto plazo disminuya.
En segundo lugar, las personas mayores que dependen de los ingresos de los intereses que reciben por sus ahorros sufren un daño adicional y recortan su consumo más profundamente que aquellos que se benefician - las personas ricas que tienen acciones - socavando la demanda agregada.
En tercer lugar, la búsqueda quizá irracional de activos que proporcionen rendimiento implica que muchos inversores cambiarán sus carteras hacia activos de mayor riesgo, exponiendo la economía a una mayor inestabilidad financiera.
Lo que los bancos centrales deberían estar haciendo es centrarse en el flujo de crédito, lo que significa restaurar y mantener la capacidad y disposición de los bancos locales a prestar a las PYMEs.
En cambio, en el mundo entero, los bancos centrales se han centrado en los bancos de importancia sistémica, las instituciones financieras cuya excesiva asunción de riesgos y las prácticas abusivas causaron la crisis de 2008.
Sin embargo, el conjunto de pequeños bancos son de importancia sistémica, sobre todo si uno está preocupado por la restauración de la inversión, el empleo y el crecimiento.
La gran lección de todo esto se puede ver en el conocido adagio, "entra basura, sale basura." Si los bancos centrales siguen utilizando los modelos equivocados, van a seguir haciendo las cosas mal.
Por supuesto, incluso en las mejores circunstancias, la capacidad de la política monetaria para restaurar una economía en crisis al pleno empleo puede ser limitada. Pero confiar en el modelo equivocado evita que los bancos centrales puedan hacer su papel - y pueden incluso empeorar la situación."
Fuentes: Joseph E. Stiglitz (Project Syndicate)
Carlos Montero
Lacartadelabolsa
17:10 Hay que irse a Perú para ver un riesgo tan grande como el Brexit
Los mercados de divisas son un buen indicador de la estabilidad financiera percibida de una nación, y en base a esa medida, los inversores están muy nerviosos por el Reino Unido y Perú, donde la política está en el centro de atención.
Sólo 2 de los 31 grandes cruces de divisas frente al dólar tienen una volatilidad implícita a tres meses superior a su medias de tres meses: la libra y el nuevo sol.
La diferencia de la libra británica es más grande - lo que significa que los inversores están cada vez más nerviosos, relativamente hablando, sobre el Brexit del Reino Unido de junio que sobre un país con algunos de los peores indicadores sociales de América Latina en medio de una elección presidencial tumultuosa.
Investigan dieciseis marcas de autos implicadas en escándalo ''Dieselgate''
El ministro de Transportes alemán señaló hoy a AFP que entre las marcas implicadas están Alfa Romeo, Chevrolet, Dacia, Fiat, Hyundai, Jaguar, Jeep, Land Rover, Nissan y Suzuki, además de las alemanas VW, Audi, Mercedes, Opel y Porsche, así como la francesa Renault.
Dos grandes nombres del sector, Daimler, fabricante de Mercedes-Benz, y Mitsubishi, se habían visto envueltos por nuevas oleadas del caso. El primero abrió el jueves una investigación interna, solicitada por las autoridades estadounidenses, sobre el modo en el que son certificadas las emisiones contaminantes de sus autos en Estados Unidos.
Algunos conductores acusan al grupo de haber instalado un dispositivo en ciertos vehículos diésel “limpio” para esquivar las normas de contaminación de Estados Unidos por debajo de cierta temperatura.
En su presentación de hoy, el ministro alemán confirmó además que unos 630,000 vehículos de los fabricantes alemanes implicados serán revisados debido a irregularidades en sus niveles de emisiones contaminantes.
La decisión sobre una eventual llamada a revisión de marcas extranjeras deberá ser tomada por los países en los que los modelos bajo sospecha presentaron su pedido de autorización para la Unión Europea, agregó.
En los vehículos implicados, el sistema de filtración de emisiones contaminantes es automáticamente desactivado cuando la temperatura exterior baja de cierto umbral. No obstante, según las normas europeas, este mecanismo solamente es autorizado si permite evitar un accidente o un daño al motor.
Publicado el Viernes, 22 de Abril del 2016
Viernes 22/04/16 PMI manufacturero
40 mensajes
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Re: Viernes 22/04/16 PMI manufacturero
por Fenix » Vie Abr 22, 2016 6:23 pm
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 22/04/16 PMI manufacturero
por Fenix » Vie Abr 22, 2016 6:27 pm
17:17 Euro dólar. Todavía muestra pauta de doble suelo
Análisis técnico Citi
Un cierre decisivo por encima de 1,1467-95, si se ve, sugeriría un movimiento por encima de 1,20 (ver Gráfico 1).
Un movimiento por debajo de 1,1050-60, si se ve, pondría en duda este potencial y cuestionaría que se repitiera la pauta formada en 1197-119 8ver Gráfico 2).
18:30 Si el Dow Jones cierra hoy por encima de los 17.978 se irá a los 20.500
Así lo creen los analistas de Citi
Los analistas técnicos de Citi señalan que si el Dow Jones cierra hoy por encima de los 17.978 puntos se confirmará una estructura de doble suelo con un objetivo en los 20.500 puntos.
Este es su escenario base por las siguientes razones:
- Es probable nuevas alzas en el petróleo y el resto de materias primas.
- Lo peor para China ha pasado.
- La Fed y especialmente Yellen mantendrán una postura "dovish"
- La rentabilidad de la deuda de EE.UU. es probable que se mantenga baja.
- La recuperación económica en EE.UU. continuará y la confianza consumidora permanecerá elevada.
18:00 Dinero, dinero y más dinero
Sí, mucho dinero. Pero, por el momento sigue primando a la renta fija.
De acuerdo con nuestros datos, durante la última semana hemos visto entradas de hasta 4.9 bn. en fondos de renta fija mundiales. Y salidas de 7.3 bn. de fondos de renta variable. Ventas por 4.3 bn. de fondos USA, por 2.1 bn. de fondos de bolsa europea y de bolsa japonesa. Por cierto, en el último mes y medio hemos visto salidas por más de 7.5 bn. de fondos de esta última…
Pero entradas por 294 M. en fondos de bolsa emergente. Más de 1.1 bn. en fondos globales y 356 M. en Latam. Pero salidas por 1 bn. de fondos de bolsa asiática…
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
US Manufacturing Plunges To 7 Year Lows As PMI "Dashes Hope That Q1 Weakness Was Temporary"
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 10:37
Following Japan's record low PMI, Europe's modest pick-up, and China's bounce, this week's Philly Fed crash was more indicative as US Manufacturing (flash) PMI printed 50.8 (from 51.5 in March and notably missing 52.0 expectations). This is the lowest print since September 2009 with New Orders sliding (weakest since Dec 2015), and Employment at its weakest since June 2013. As Markit notes, "US factories reported their worst month for just over six-and-a-half years in April, dashing hopes that first quarter weakness will prove temporary."
It's A "Full-Scale Cash Crisis" In Oil Schlumberger CEO Admits
Tyler D.
04/22/2016 11:00 -0400
For the latest indication of how bad the recession in the US sector field is, we took a look at last night's Schlumberger results which were modestly better than expected, beating expectations of $0.37 by one cent, however as usual the non-GAAP adjusted bottom line did not tell the full story. The Company's net income plunged nearly 50%, to $501 million, or 40 cents a share, from $975 million, or 76 cents, a year earlier.
Profit fell in the first quarter as the company, which helps explorers find pockets of oil underground and drill for it, adjusts to shrinking margins in North America as customers scale back work. Customers are slashing spending by as much as 50 percent in the U.S. and Canada.
"It’s a weak beat mainly because they guided estimates down," Rob Desai, an analyst at Edward Jones in St. Louis, who rates the shares a buy and owns none, said in a phone interview. "North America came in weaker than we expected."
The world's No.1 oilfield services provider said its costs to do business in North America exceeded the revenue it earned there in the quarter, the first time it had negative margins in the region since oil prices started falling in mid-2014.
"North America was the biggest surprise to the downside, with negative margins, which did not occur during 2008-2009 oil drop," Edward Jones analyst Rob Desai said.
The company was pressured from the collapse in crude prices were seen in North America, the world’s largest hydraulic fracturing market, where Schlumberger reported a loss of $10 million, before taxes. Elsewhere, the company announced earlier this month plans to cut back activity in Venezuela, holder of the biggest oil reserves of any country, due to unpaid bills.
The the real tell of what is coming came from the company's going forward actions. Not only did SLB cut its 2016 capital spending budget to $2 billion from $2.4 billion, and hinted at further cost cuts. The company also cut another 2,000 jobs in the first quarter as the world’s largest provider of oilfield services sees the industry in an unprecedented downturn. The global headcount dropped to 93,000 at the end of the first quarter with the reduction, Joao Felix, a spokesman for the company, said by e-mail. More than a quarter of Schlumberger’s workforce, or roughly 36,000, has now been cleaved off since the worst crude-market crash in a generation began in late 2014.
If anything these cuts suggest that the true picture for the US shale space is getting worse not better.
And the punchline was what Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Paal Kibsgaard said: "The decline in global activity and the rate of activity disruption reached unprecedented levels as the industry displayed clear signs of operating in a full-scale cash crisis. This environment is expected to continue deteriorating over the coming quarter given the magnitude and erratic nature of the disruptions in activity."
We are confident this lack of downstream demand from the company that has the best visibility into the US shale sector is why oil is up another 2% even as virtually all oil producers are now ramping up production to even higher levels in a furious attempt to beggar their mostly OPEC neighbors.
Análisis técnico Citi
Un cierre decisivo por encima de 1,1467-95, si se ve, sugeriría un movimiento por encima de 1,20 (ver Gráfico 1).
Un movimiento por debajo de 1,1050-60, si se ve, pondría en duda este potencial y cuestionaría que se repitiera la pauta formada en 1197-119 8ver Gráfico 2).
18:30 Si el Dow Jones cierra hoy por encima de los 17.978 se irá a los 20.500
Así lo creen los analistas de Citi
Los analistas técnicos de Citi señalan que si el Dow Jones cierra hoy por encima de los 17.978 puntos se confirmará una estructura de doble suelo con un objetivo en los 20.500 puntos.
Este es su escenario base por las siguientes razones:
- Es probable nuevas alzas en el petróleo y el resto de materias primas.
- Lo peor para China ha pasado.
- La Fed y especialmente Yellen mantendrán una postura "dovish"
- La rentabilidad de la deuda de EE.UU. es probable que se mantenga baja.
- La recuperación económica en EE.UU. continuará y la confianza consumidora permanecerá elevada.
18:00 Dinero, dinero y más dinero
Sí, mucho dinero. Pero, por el momento sigue primando a la renta fija.
De acuerdo con nuestros datos, durante la última semana hemos visto entradas de hasta 4.9 bn. en fondos de renta fija mundiales. Y salidas de 7.3 bn. de fondos de renta variable. Ventas por 4.3 bn. de fondos USA, por 2.1 bn. de fondos de bolsa europea y de bolsa japonesa. Por cierto, en el último mes y medio hemos visto salidas por más de 7.5 bn. de fondos de esta última…
Pero entradas por 294 M. en fondos de bolsa emergente. Más de 1.1 bn. en fondos globales y 356 M. en Latam. Pero salidas por 1 bn. de fondos de bolsa asiática…
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
US Manufacturing Plunges To 7 Year Lows As PMI "Dashes Hope That Q1 Weakness Was Temporary"
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 10:37
Following Japan's record low PMI, Europe's modest pick-up, and China's bounce, this week's Philly Fed crash was more indicative as US Manufacturing (flash) PMI printed 50.8 (from 51.5 in March and notably missing 52.0 expectations). This is the lowest print since September 2009 with New Orders sliding (weakest since Dec 2015), and Employment at its weakest since June 2013. As Markit notes, "US factories reported their worst month for just over six-and-a-half years in April, dashing hopes that first quarter weakness will prove temporary."
It's A "Full-Scale Cash Crisis" In Oil Schlumberger CEO Admits
Tyler D.
04/22/2016 11:00 -0400
For the latest indication of how bad the recession in the US sector field is, we took a look at last night's Schlumberger results which were modestly better than expected, beating expectations of $0.37 by one cent, however as usual the non-GAAP adjusted bottom line did not tell the full story. The Company's net income plunged nearly 50%, to $501 million, or 40 cents a share, from $975 million, or 76 cents, a year earlier.
Profit fell in the first quarter as the company, which helps explorers find pockets of oil underground and drill for it, adjusts to shrinking margins in North America as customers scale back work. Customers are slashing spending by as much as 50 percent in the U.S. and Canada.
"It’s a weak beat mainly because they guided estimates down," Rob Desai, an analyst at Edward Jones in St. Louis, who rates the shares a buy and owns none, said in a phone interview. "North America came in weaker than we expected."
The world's No.1 oilfield services provider said its costs to do business in North America exceeded the revenue it earned there in the quarter, the first time it had negative margins in the region since oil prices started falling in mid-2014.
"North America was the biggest surprise to the downside, with negative margins, which did not occur during 2008-2009 oil drop," Edward Jones analyst Rob Desai said.
The company was pressured from the collapse in crude prices were seen in North America, the world’s largest hydraulic fracturing market, where Schlumberger reported a loss of $10 million, before taxes. Elsewhere, the company announced earlier this month plans to cut back activity in Venezuela, holder of the biggest oil reserves of any country, due to unpaid bills.
The the real tell of what is coming came from the company's going forward actions. Not only did SLB cut its 2016 capital spending budget to $2 billion from $2.4 billion, and hinted at further cost cuts. The company also cut another 2,000 jobs in the first quarter as the world’s largest provider of oilfield services sees the industry in an unprecedented downturn. The global headcount dropped to 93,000 at the end of the first quarter with the reduction, Joao Felix, a spokesman for the company, said by e-mail. More than a quarter of Schlumberger’s workforce, or roughly 36,000, has now been cleaved off since the worst crude-market crash in a generation began in late 2014.
If anything these cuts suggest that the true picture for the US shale space is getting worse not better.
And the punchline was what Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Paal Kibsgaard said: "The decline in global activity and the rate of activity disruption reached unprecedented levels as the industry displayed clear signs of operating in a full-scale cash crisis. This environment is expected to continue deteriorating over the coming quarter given the magnitude and erratic nature of the disruptions in activity."
We are confident this lack of downstream demand from the company that has the best visibility into the US shale sector is why oil is up another 2% even as virtually all oil producers are now ramping up production to even higher levels in a furious attempt to beggar their mostly OPEC neighbors.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 22/04/16 PMI manufacturero
por Fenix » Vie Abr 22, 2016 6:32 pm
Un mundo mas correlacionado
Viernes, 22 de Abril del 2016 - 21:52:00
Ya sé lo que me van a decir: “pero esto no es lo dijo ayer el Presidente del ECB”. Bueno, aquí tienen los datos. Miren estos gráficos. Al final, crudo y USD han aumentado su correlación de forma reciente hasta niveles significativos.
Y también con las perspectivas de inflación.
Por lo demás, recuerden como las bolsas se nutren de expectativas de crecimiento y de inflación.
Luego, positivo escenario para las bolsas. Es la conclusión más sencilla.
Sin embargo, les propongo no ser tan contundente en las conclusiones. Especialmente cuando las hipótesis de partida pueden no ser del todo ciertas.
Por ejemplo, el precio del crudo.
¿De verdad tiene sentido que comience una escalada en un escenario como el actual? sigo pensando que la máxima de que lo que no cae acabará subiendo es apropiada para los mercados financieros. Pero el mercado de crudo no lo es.
De la misma forma, estoy convencido de que hemos visto ya el suelo del EUR. Pero, ¿tiene sentido apostar ya claramente por la recuperación de la senda alcista? Quizás sería una pregunta apropiada para el ECB y el BOJ. Además, tampoco tengo muy claro que no se den las condiciones apropiadas en un futuro próximo para que la Fed retome las subidas de tipos. En definitiva, por el momento fijamos un rango para el EURUSD de 1.11/1.15.
Y luego están los factores de cola, algunos bien conocidos (aunque no sus resultados). Me refiero por ejemplo a Grecia y UK en los dos próximos meses.
Sí, como diría la Fed todo va a depender de los datos macro. Así, la recuperación de las bolsas ahora sin duda van a ayudar a la mejora de las perspectivas económicas. Pero, profundizar las subidas desde niveles casi neutrales ya en las carteras requiere algo más que buenos deseos.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
The End Of 'Quarterly Capitalism'?
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 12:10
Tell us truthfully: do you actually get a lot of value from quarterly earnings reports? It’s not actually us asking; it is the Securities and Exchange Commission and the NIRI trade group, the most influential group of Investor Relations professionals in U.S. markets. Last week the SEC published a concept release that seeks public input on a range of issues, perhaps most notably quarterly financial reporting for public companies. Questions include: “Do investors, registrants, and the markets benefit from quarterly reporting?” and “Should we revise or eliminate our rules requiring quarterly reporting?”
Crude Pops After Rig Count Tumbles To New Lows
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 13:07
Crude prices had been sliding ahead of today's Baker Hughes rig count data but the slide stalled as the total rig count fell 9 to 431 - a new low (from over 2000 rigs at the cyclical peak). As the oil rig count continues to perfectly track lagged oil prices, we note that this week's 8 rig decline to a fresh cycle low of 343 could be the low. This year has still only seen one week in which rig counts did not decline.
The Metal Ratios Are An Ominous Sign For US Inflation Trends
04/22/2016 13:16 -0400
Submitted by Eric Bush
The gold/silver ratio recently took out 2009 highs and the gold/copper ratio is at its highest level since 2009. This is a negative signal that US inflation, using CPI, could be headed for another leg lower. Since 2008, the gold/silver ratio has had a -73% correlation to the year-over-year change in US CPI (with a 2-quarter forward lag for the gold/silver ratio) . So as the gold/silver ratio increases, the year-over-year change in the CPI tends to fall.
1 - Copy - Copy (2)
A similar relationship exists between the gold/copper ratio and US CPI. Over the past 20-years, the year-over-year change in US CPI has a -58% correlation to the gold/copper ratio (lagged forward one quarter). The current level of the gold/copper ratio suggests that the year-over-year change in CPI could fall below 0%.
1 - Copy - Copy
And all of this needs to be understood in the context that deflation remains a major fear in the stock and bond market. This fear can been visualized through the correlation between stocks and bonds. The four-year rolling correlation between US stocks and 10-year treasury yields has fallen from the all-time historic high seen from 2013-2015, however, it is still higher than at any other time going back to 1875 excluding the 2012- current period. When stocks and bonds are negatively correlated, as they were from 1967-1997, the dominant fear in the market is inflation. Since inflation erodes the real return of bonds while stocks can pass on some of that inflation as nominal top-line growth, stock prices and bond yields tend to move in opposite directions.
1 - Copy (2) - Copy
However, when deflation is the dominant fear, as it has been since tech bubble, stock prices and bond yields tend to move more in tandem.
Why Are Bankrupt Oil Companies Still Pumping?
04/22/2016 13:56 -0400
Submitted by Michael McDonald
A central tenet in the thesis by analysts about the oil markets rebalancing has been that as prices declined, oil companies would be forced into bankruptcy. That in turn would lead to declining production, and eventually a rebalancing of supply and demand in the market, followed by higher prices. That process is already taking longer than many expected, and it looks like more time is needed. That additional time to balance the market is being driven by an unexpected factor; bankrupt oil companies are still pumping.
As oil prices have declined, the number of bankruptcies and distressed oil majors has quickly risen into the dozens. In fact, a recent Reuters analysis suggests little effect on production from when companies enter bankruptcy. Reuters cited Magnum Hunter as a primary example of this reality.
While Magnum Hunter filed for bankruptcy in December 2014, the firm has scrambled even in Chapter 11 to keep its oil flowing, resulting in O&G production rising by roughly one-third between mid-2014 and late 2015. The firm has used the protection bankruptcy courts to help stave off creditors while keeping the pumps flowing full tilt. Nearly all of Magnum Hunter’s 3000 wells are still producing crude, and that makes sense for several reasons.
First, daily costs for operating wells remain well below current spot prices. While drilling new wells is not economical, it is perfectly logical to keep exploiting existing wells. Fracked wells usually start to see a significant decline in production after about two years of operations. So eventually Magnum Hunter and other companies will see their production fall, but two years can be a very long time to pump.
Second, creditors want to extract maximum value from the company and the best way to do that in the current environment is to keep the oil flowing. Bid-ask spreads on oil assets for sale are simply too wide for most companies to be interested in selling assets while in Chapter 11. Instead, creditors maximize the present value of their assets by continuing to pump oil. This oil can either be stored leading to a large risk free profit, or it can be sold on the spot market. Either way, Magnum Hunter and other bankrupt producers are acting in the best interests of their creditors by continuing to pump. Unfortunately, those actions are not in the best interests of the broader industry or energy sector stock investors.
Third, management at bankrupt producers also have little reason to do anything other than keep the crude flowing. In the current energy market, getting a job is very difficult, especially for top managers coming from a bankrupt producer. As a result, managers rationally want to make sure they stay useful in Chapter 11 and that means trying to convince creditors to keep the company operating rather than converting to a Chapter 7 liquidation. Not all O&G firms should be kept operating – some firms are better off being liquidated – but creditors often lack the necessary industry expertise to be able to distinguish between firms that have a future after emerging from Chapter 11, and those that don’t and are better off in a Chapter 7 sale. And again, management has very little incentive to put themselves out of a job by recommending Chapter 7.
On the whole then, while the oil markets are slowly making progress in rebalancing, the process is slower than most investors would like. Bankruptcy alone cannot rebalance the oil markets. Instead, natural well depletion and a lack of new investment are the driving forces that are reducing production over time. Those forces will continue in the future, but for now investors will just have to be patient and not get ahead of themselves.
Viernes, 22 de Abril del 2016 - 21:52:00
Ya sé lo que me van a decir: “pero esto no es lo dijo ayer el Presidente del ECB”. Bueno, aquí tienen los datos. Miren estos gráficos. Al final, crudo y USD han aumentado su correlación de forma reciente hasta niveles significativos.
Y también con las perspectivas de inflación.
Por lo demás, recuerden como las bolsas se nutren de expectativas de crecimiento y de inflación.
Luego, positivo escenario para las bolsas. Es la conclusión más sencilla.
Sin embargo, les propongo no ser tan contundente en las conclusiones. Especialmente cuando las hipótesis de partida pueden no ser del todo ciertas.
Por ejemplo, el precio del crudo.
¿De verdad tiene sentido que comience una escalada en un escenario como el actual? sigo pensando que la máxima de que lo que no cae acabará subiendo es apropiada para los mercados financieros. Pero el mercado de crudo no lo es.
De la misma forma, estoy convencido de que hemos visto ya el suelo del EUR. Pero, ¿tiene sentido apostar ya claramente por la recuperación de la senda alcista? Quizás sería una pregunta apropiada para el ECB y el BOJ. Además, tampoco tengo muy claro que no se den las condiciones apropiadas en un futuro próximo para que la Fed retome las subidas de tipos. En definitiva, por el momento fijamos un rango para el EURUSD de 1.11/1.15.
Y luego están los factores de cola, algunos bien conocidos (aunque no sus resultados). Me refiero por ejemplo a Grecia y UK en los dos próximos meses.
Sí, como diría la Fed todo va a depender de los datos macro. Así, la recuperación de las bolsas ahora sin duda van a ayudar a la mejora de las perspectivas económicas. Pero, profundizar las subidas desde niveles casi neutrales ya en las carteras requiere algo más que buenos deseos.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
The End Of 'Quarterly Capitalism'?
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 12:10
Tell us truthfully: do you actually get a lot of value from quarterly earnings reports? It’s not actually us asking; it is the Securities and Exchange Commission and the NIRI trade group, the most influential group of Investor Relations professionals in U.S. markets. Last week the SEC published a concept release that seeks public input on a range of issues, perhaps most notably quarterly financial reporting for public companies. Questions include: “Do investors, registrants, and the markets benefit from quarterly reporting?” and “Should we revise or eliminate our rules requiring quarterly reporting?”
Crude Pops After Rig Count Tumbles To New Lows
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 13:07
Crude prices had been sliding ahead of today's Baker Hughes rig count data but the slide stalled as the total rig count fell 9 to 431 - a new low (from over 2000 rigs at the cyclical peak). As the oil rig count continues to perfectly track lagged oil prices, we note that this week's 8 rig decline to a fresh cycle low of 343 could be the low. This year has still only seen one week in which rig counts did not decline.
The Metal Ratios Are An Ominous Sign For US Inflation Trends
04/22/2016 13:16 -0400
Submitted by Eric Bush
The gold/silver ratio recently took out 2009 highs and the gold/copper ratio is at its highest level since 2009. This is a negative signal that US inflation, using CPI, could be headed for another leg lower. Since 2008, the gold/silver ratio has had a -73% correlation to the year-over-year change in US CPI (with a 2-quarter forward lag for the gold/silver ratio) . So as the gold/silver ratio increases, the year-over-year change in the CPI tends to fall.
1 - Copy - Copy (2)
A similar relationship exists between the gold/copper ratio and US CPI. Over the past 20-years, the year-over-year change in US CPI has a -58% correlation to the gold/copper ratio (lagged forward one quarter). The current level of the gold/copper ratio suggests that the year-over-year change in CPI could fall below 0%.
1 - Copy - Copy
And all of this needs to be understood in the context that deflation remains a major fear in the stock and bond market. This fear can been visualized through the correlation between stocks and bonds. The four-year rolling correlation between US stocks and 10-year treasury yields has fallen from the all-time historic high seen from 2013-2015, however, it is still higher than at any other time going back to 1875 excluding the 2012- current period. When stocks and bonds are negatively correlated, as they were from 1967-1997, the dominant fear in the market is inflation. Since inflation erodes the real return of bonds while stocks can pass on some of that inflation as nominal top-line growth, stock prices and bond yields tend to move in opposite directions.
1 - Copy (2) - Copy
However, when deflation is the dominant fear, as it has been since tech bubble, stock prices and bond yields tend to move more in tandem.
Why Are Bankrupt Oil Companies Still Pumping?
04/22/2016 13:56 -0400
Submitted by Michael McDonald
A central tenet in the thesis by analysts about the oil markets rebalancing has been that as prices declined, oil companies would be forced into bankruptcy. That in turn would lead to declining production, and eventually a rebalancing of supply and demand in the market, followed by higher prices. That process is already taking longer than many expected, and it looks like more time is needed. That additional time to balance the market is being driven by an unexpected factor; bankrupt oil companies are still pumping.
As oil prices have declined, the number of bankruptcies and distressed oil majors has quickly risen into the dozens. In fact, a recent Reuters analysis suggests little effect on production from when companies enter bankruptcy. Reuters cited Magnum Hunter as a primary example of this reality.
While Magnum Hunter filed for bankruptcy in December 2014, the firm has scrambled even in Chapter 11 to keep its oil flowing, resulting in O&G production rising by roughly one-third between mid-2014 and late 2015. The firm has used the protection bankruptcy courts to help stave off creditors while keeping the pumps flowing full tilt. Nearly all of Magnum Hunter’s 3000 wells are still producing crude, and that makes sense for several reasons.
First, daily costs for operating wells remain well below current spot prices. While drilling new wells is not economical, it is perfectly logical to keep exploiting existing wells. Fracked wells usually start to see a significant decline in production after about two years of operations. So eventually Magnum Hunter and other companies will see their production fall, but two years can be a very long time to pump.
Second, creditors want to extract maximum value from the company and the best way to do that in the current environment is to keep the oil flowing. Bid-ask spreads on oil assets for sale are simply too wide for most companies to be interested in selling assets while in Chapter 11. Instead, creditors maximize the present value of their assets by continuing to pump oil. This oil can either be stored leading to a large risk free profit, or it can be sold on the spot market. Either way, Magnum Hunter and other bankrupt producers are acting in the best interests of their creditors by continuing to pump. Unfortunately, those actions are not in the best interests of the broader industry or energy sector stock investors.
Third, management at bankrupt producers also have little reason to do anything other than keep the crude flowing. In the current energy market, getting a job is very difficult, especially for top managers coming from a bankrupt producer. As a result, managers rationally want to make sure they stay useful in Chapter 11 and that means trying to convince creditors to keep the company operating rather than converting to a Chapter 7 liquidation. Not all O&G firms should be kept operating – some firms are better off being liquidated – but creditors often lack the necessary industry expertise to be able to distinguish between firms that have a future after emerging from Chapter 11, and those that don’t and are better off in a Chapter 7 sale. And again, management has very little incentive to put themselves out of a job by recommending Chapter 7.
On the whole then, while the oil markets are slowly making progress in rebalancing, the process is slower than most investors would like. Bankruptcy alone cannot rebalance the oil markets. Instead, natural well depletion and a lack of new investment are the driving forces that are reducing production over time. Those forces will continue in the future, but for now investors will just have to be patient and not get ahead of themselves.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 22/04/16 PMI manufacturero
por Fenix » Vie Abr 22, 2016 6:36 pm
IEA Warns "Saudis, Russians To Pump As Much Oil As Possible"
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 14:56
"In the post-Doha world, when we're still in what is essentially a free market for oil, the Russians will pump as much oil out as the market will absorb and the Saudis have said much the same thing."
USDJPY Soars Most Since QQE2 Crushing Record Shorts
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 14:18
A rumor of The BoJ doing something moar (helping banks with NIRP loans) was the apparent catalyst for today's epic USDJPY spike, but the kindling was a record position among speculative futures traders that USDJPY would continue to fall. Today's 250 pips plunge in Yen relative the dollar is the largest since Oct/Nov 2014 when The Fed ended QE3 and BoJ stepped in with QQE2 (or 22). For now, however, the machines have failed to get inspiration for stock buying euphoria from this usually positive carry pump...
Bolsa de Valores de Lima sube 3% en la semana
Este es, sin duda alguna, el mejor mes de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima (BVL) durante el gobierno de Ollanta Humala. La BVL ha tenido un alza impresionante, apoyada por la baja del dólar y los buenos resultados financieros de las empresas en el primer trimestre del año.
En la jornada de hoy se negociaron S/ 26 millones en 379 operaciones, el monto más bajo en lo que va del mes.
photo Bolsa-de-Valores-de-Lima_zpsyzg7ugav.jpg
El Índice General de la BVL (SP/BVL PERU GEN), el más importante de la bolsa, bajó hoy en 0.7% y cerró en 13,198 puntos, alcanzando el nivel de hace un año; el Índice Selectivo de la BVL (SP/BVL PERU SEL), bajó en 0.8%; el SP/BVL LIMA 25 bajó en 1%, y el Índice de Buen Gobierno Corporativo (SP/BVL IBGC), bajó en 1.6%. En la semana, el SP/BVL PERU GEN subió en 0.3%.
Los índices sectoriales que más subieron hoy fueron: mineras juniors en 4.1%, constructoras en 3.1% e industriales en 26%. El índice sectorial que más subió hoy fue eléctricas en 0.2%.
Entre las acciones que más bajaron hoy están: Panoro Minerals (Canadá), que bajó en 8.2% y cerró en US$ 0.12; Graña y Montero, que bajó en 6% y cerró en S/ 4.50; Pomalca, que bajó en 4.8% y cerró en S/ 0.18, y Siderperú, que bajó en 3.2% y cerró en S/ 0.24.
Entre las acciones que más subieron hoy están las de Minera Cerro Verde, que subió en 2% y cerró en US$ 20.
Las acciones más negociadas hoy fueron: Financial Select Sec SPDR ETF, con un monto de US$ 2.1 millones en una operación, e Intercorp, con un monto de US$ 650 mil en 11 operaciones.
(GE)
Publicado el Viernes, 22 de Abril del 2016
Lithium Stocks Soar After "Epic Launch" Of Tesla Model 3
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 15:16
Shares of Lithium companies have surged after Tesla boosted its outlook for electric vehicles powered by batteries that use the element, sending the Solactive Global Lithium Index up by about a third since the middle of February. And it does not look set to slowdown, as OilPrice.com's James Stafford notes, the unveiling of Tesla’s Model 3 electric car was no less than the lifting of the final curtain on a game-changing energy revolution. And if we follow that revolution to its core, we arrive at lithium - our new gasoline for which the feeding frenzy has only just begun.
Weekend Reading: It's Probably A Trap
Tyler D.
04/22/2016 16:25 -0400
Submitted by Lance Roberts
Earlier this week, I noted that due to the technical breakout of the market above the downtrend line from last May, an increase in exposure to equity risk was required. To wit:
“With the breakout of the market yesterday, and given that ‘short-term buy signals’ are in place I began adding exposure back into portfolios. This is probably the most difficult ‘buy’ I can ever remember making.
As I stated, buying this breakout goes against virtually everything in my bones as the fundamental underpinnings certainly doesn’t support taking on equity risk here.
* We are moving into the seasonally weak time of year.
* Economic data continues to remain weak
* Earnings are only positive by not sucking as bad as estimates
* Volume is weak
* Longer-term technical underpinnings remain bearish.
* It is the summer of a Presidential election year which tends to be weak.
* The yield curve is flattening
* Bonds aren’t “buying” the rally
While I am increasing exposure here, I do suspect that price volatility has not been eliminated entirely which is why I remain cautious.
Furthermore, the “bullish case” is currently built primarily on “hope.”
* Hope the economy will improve in the second half of the year.
* Hope that earnings will improve in the second half of the year.
* Hope that oil prices will trade higher even as supply remains elevated.
* Hope the Fed will not raise interest rates this year.
* Hope that global Central Banks will “keep on keepin’ on.”
* Hope that the US Dollar doesn’t rise
* Hope that interest rates remain low.
* Hope that high-yield credit markets remain stable
I am sure I forgot a few things, but you get the point. With valuations expensive, markets overbought, volatility low, and sentiment pushing back into more extreme territory, there are a lot of things that can go wrong. “
In other words, it’s probably a trap.
I highly suspect that within the next week, or so, I will be stopped out of recent positions. That is the risk of managing money.
However, given the ongoing Central Bank interventions, verbal easing by the Federal Reserve and an excessiveness of “bullish hope,” it is likely that prices could indeed more higher in the short-term.
As John Maynard Keynes once famously quipped:
“The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
This weekend’s reading is the usual series of opposing views to reduce the inherent confirmation bias that exists by remaining too bullish and bearish. An honest assessment of the risks and rewards will always lead to better long-term outcomes.
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 14:56
"In the post-Doha world, when we're still in what is essentially a free market for oil, the Russians will pump as much oil out as the market will absorb and the Saudis have said much the same thing."
USDJPY Soars Most Since QQE2 Crushing Record Shorts
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 14:18
A rumor of The BoJ doing something moar (helping banks with NIRP loans) was the apparent catalyst for today's epic USDJPY spike, but the kindling was a record position among speculative futures traders that USDJPY would continue to fall. Today's 250 pips plunge in Yen relative the dollar is the largest since Oct/Nov 2014 when The Fed ended QE3 and BoJ stepped in with QQE2 (or 22). For now, however, the machines have failed to get inspiration for stock buying euphoria from this usually positive carry pump...
Bolsa de Valores de Lima sube 3% en la semana
Este es, sin duda alguna, el mejor mes de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima (BVL) durante el gobierno de Ollanta Humala. La BVL ha tenido un alza impresionante, apoyada por la baja del dólar y los buenos resultados financieros de las empresas en el primer trimestre del año.
En la jornada de hoy se negociaron S/ 26 millones en 379 operaciones, el monto más bajo en lo que va del mes.
photo Bolsa-de-Valores-de-Lima_zpsyzg7ugav.jpg
El Índice General de la BVL (SP/BVL PERU GEN), el más importante de la bolsa, bajó hoy en 0.7% y cerró en 13,198 puntos, alcanzando el nivel de hace un año; el Índice Selectivo de la BVL (SP/BVL PERU SEL), bajó en 0.8%; el SP/BVL LIMA 25 bajó en 1%, y el Índice de Buen Gobierno Corporativo (SP/BVL IBGC), bajó en 1.6%. En la semana, el SP/BVL PERU GEN subió en 0.3%.
Los índices sectoriales que más subieron hoy fueron: mineras juniors en 4.1%, constructoras en 3.1% e industriales en 26%. El índice sectorial que más subió hoy fue eléctricas en 0.2%.
Entre las acciones que más bajaron hoy están: Panoro Minerals (Canadá), que bajó en 8.2% y cerró en US$ 0.12; Graña y Montero, que bajó en 6% y cerró en S/ 4.50; Pomalca, que bajó en 4.8% y cerró en S/ 0.18, y Siderperú, que bajó en 3.2% y cerró en S/ 0.24.
Entre las acciones que más subieron hoy están las de Minera Cerro Verde, que subió en 2% y cerró en US$ 20.
Las acciones más negociadas hoy fueron: Financial Select Sec SPDR ETF, con un monto de US$ 2.1 millones en una operación, e Intercorp, con un monto de US$ 650 mil en 11 operaciones.
(GE)
Publicado el Viernes, 22 de Abril del 2016
Lithium Stocks Soar After "Epic Launch" Of Tesla Model 3
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 15:16
Shares of Lithium companies have surged after Tesla boosted its outlook for electric vehicles powered by batteries that use the element, sending the Solactive Global Lithium Index up by about a third since the middle of February. And it does not look set to slowdown, as OilPrice.com's James Stafford notes, the unveiling of Tesla’s Model 3 electric car was no less than the lifting of the final curtain on a game-changing energy revolution. And if we follow that revolution to its core, we arrive at lithium - our new gasoline for which the feeding frenzy has only just begun.
Weekend Reading: It's Probably A Trap
Tyler D.
04/22/2016 16:25 -0400
Submitted by Lance Roberts
Earlier this week, I noted that due to the technical breakout of the market above the downtrend line from last May, an increase in exposure to equity risk was required. To wit:
“With the breakout of the market yesterday, and given that ‘short-term buy signals’ are in place I began adding exposure back into portfolios. This is probably the most difficult ‘buy’ I can ever remember making.
As I stated, buying this breakout goes against virtually everything in my bones as the fundamental underpinnings certainly doesn’t support taking on equity risk here.
* We are moving into the seasonally weak time of year.
* Economic data continues to remain weak
* Earnings are only positive by not sucking as bad as estimates
* Volume is weak
* Longer-term technical underpinnings remain bearish.
* It is the summer of a Presidential election year which tends to be weak.
* The yield curve is flattening
* Bonds aren’t “buying” the rally
While I am increasing exposure here, I do suspect that price volatility has not been eliminated entirely which is why I remain cautious.
Furthermore, the “bullish case” is currently built primarily on “hope.”
* Hope the economy will improve in the second half of the year.
* Hope that earnings will improve in the second half of the year.
* Hope that oil prices will trade higher even as supply remains elevated.
* Hope the Fed will not raise interest rates this year.
* Hope that global Central Banks will “keep on keepin’ on.”
* Hope that the US Dollar doesn’t rise
* Hope that interest rates remain low.
* Hope that high-yield credit markets remain stable
I am sure I forgot a few things, but you get the point. With valuations expensive, markets overbought, volatility low, and sentiment pushing back into more extreme territory, there are a lot of things that can go wrong. “
In other words, it’s probably a trap.
I highly suspect that within the next week, or so, I will be stopped out of recent positions. That is the risk of managing money.
However, given the ongoing Central Bank interventions, verbal easing by the Federal Reserve and an excessiveness of “bullish hope,” it is likely that prices could indeed more higher in the short-term.
As John Maynard Keynes once famously quipped:
“The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
This weekend’s reading is the usual series of opposing views to reduce the inherent confirmation bias that exists by remaining too bullish and bearish. An honest assessment of the risks and rewards will always lead to better long-term outcomes.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 22/04/16 PMI manufacturero
por Fenix » Vie Abr 22, 2016 6:43 pm
The Stunning Chart Showing Where All The Commodity Gains Have Come From
Tyler D.
04/22/2016 16:50 -0400
"The market is moving so quickly, yesterday felt just like the stock market in June last year before the crash," warns one Asian trader reflecting on the chaotic rush of Chinese speculators into the industrial metals commodities market Echoing the frenzy that fueled China's parabolic stock market rise (and subsequent collapse), Bloomberg notes one local China broker admits "we’ve seen a lot of people opening accounts for commodities futures recently," adding rather ominously, "the great ball of China money is moving away from bonds and stocks to commodities." The spikes in everything from rebar to iron ore, however, according to Goldman "is not driven by a sustainable shift in fundamentals."
Industrial metals up over 50% year-to-date, amid plunging exports and domestic zombie revival...
Since Dec 23rd 2015 when the US imposed a 256% tariff on Chinese steel imports, composite steel prices have soared almost 50% even as exports have slipped...
Trading in futures on everything from steel reinforcement bars and hot-rolled coils to cotton and polyvinyl chloride has soared this week, prompting exchanges in Shanghai, Dalian and Zhengzhou to boost fees or issue warnings to investors.
Deutsche Bank details the total crazinesss...
The onshore China commodity markets this week traded (conservatively) $350bn notional, a 17x increase on the $20bn notional that traded on Feb 1st 2016 i.e. a month ago (is it coincidence that the notional is about the same as at the peak of the equity frenzy?).
My calculations are pretty basic; I've trawled the screens and chosen 32 commodities in agri, metals and coke/coal and done a quick (contracts x value)/CNY for a dollar amount. I have not used the largest day's volume either (e.g. Deformed Bar, RBTA has traded close to $100bn, but I used closer to $60bn). Cotton (VVA Comdty) has been trading $15bn, up from $500mm in Feb. In the US, the long established cotton contract (CT1 Comdty) trades $600mm. China listed Sugar (CBA Comdty) has traded $14bn versus the US listed sugar beet at $850mm.
What this looks like!!
How much impact is this having on global markets? At first, very little. Many of the China listed futures started to bottom and rally in Nov and Dec last year, with very little relationship to global peers. This very crude chart below is a simple aggregation of all the prices of the 32 commods that I could find, but many of the underlying constituents are exactly the same. The performance looks inversely correlated with the performance of the underlying economy (and demand) but nicely related to the injection of credit.
In recent sessions, some of the US based commods have started to squeeze higher, presumably because the dog and the tail are changing places (clearly these are not apples-for-apples, as it were, in terms of contracts).
There is no correlation between the explosion in interest in Chinese commodity futures and any Chinese economic activity (and it should be a reminder to all who gaze lovingly at the commodity charts of the last decade that credit, rather than true demand, can be the most influential factor in financial markets). Volumes have increased 17 fold in a month. The economy has not. This is simply another speculative excess that will probably (already has) run way beyond fundamentals. It is probably creating a false picture of global demand for commodity stocks of all types, which themselves have rallied far beyond their earnings potential.
Eventually, the excesses will need to be curbed and maybe that starts a new phase of risk-off within China. As Bloomberg reports,
While the underlying products may be anything but glamorous, the numbers are eye-popping: contracts on more than 223 million metric tons of rebar changed hands on Thursday, more than China’s full-year production of the material used to strengthen concrete.
The frenzy echoes the activity that fueled China’s stock market last year before a rout erased $5 trillion, and follows earlier bubbles in property to garlic and even certain types of tea. China’s army of investors is honing in on raw materials amid signs of a pickup in demand and as the nation’s equities fall the most among global markets and corporate bond yields head for the steepest monthly rise in more than a year.
Hao Hong, chief China strategist at Bocom International Holdings Co. in Hong Kong, says the improvement in fundamentals and the availability of leverage to bet on commodities is making them irresistible to traders.
“These guys are going nuts," Hong said. “Leverage exaggerates the move of the way up, but also on the way down - much like what margin financing did to stocks in 2015.”
To cool activity, as we warned yesterrday, the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased transaction fees while the Dalian Commodity Exchange raised iron ore margin requirements. The bourse in Dalian also tightened rules on what it called abnormal trading, which now includes frequent submission and withdrawal of orders and self-trading. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange urged prudent investment on cotton futures amid "relatively large price fluctuations."
“There’s a lot of liquidity and there are people looking for opportunity," said Ben Kwong, a director at brokerage KGI Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Investors are just boosted by recent rebound in those commodity prices and it’s speculative behavior."
Goldman agrees, warning that "we believe that it is not yet driven by a sustainable shift in fundamentals..."
The sentiment in commodity markets has clearly shifted towards being more bullish. With steel rebar leading the charge following robust Chinese credit data and oil trading to the top end of our inflection phase trading range of $45/$25 , this leaves the most important question of whether this is the beginning of a sustainable, broad-based commodity rally that marks the end of the inflection phase. While this recent rally has the potential to run further to the upside, with the biggest risk that the Fed chooses not to hike in the coming months despite improving Chinese activity, we believe that it is not yet driven by a sustainable shift in fundamentals. In oil, we do not anticipate a sustainable shift in fundamentals until 3Q16, which creates near-term downside risks. Specifically:
1) The rally has been far stronger in the oil and steel complexes, commodity sectors that have seen near-term, transient, supply adjustments. While these adjustments deal with near-term surpluses through oil supply disruptions and excessive de-stocking in ferrous complex (see Exhibit 2), they do not address the longer-term supply problems of excess capacity in the oil and metals sectors, in our view. Specifically, we believe the current decline in US oil production is still insufficient to offset low-cost supply growth such as Iran, particularly should disruptions in Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela reverse.
2) The steel complex also benefits from a high level of exposure to the credit-led pick up in Chinese infrastructure activity, which was put in place by Chinese policy makers to contain fears over systemic risks earlier this year that have passed. Outside of commodity demand exposed to Chinese infrastructure, actual demand for commodities didn’t change that much over this time period, only expectations behaved in a V-shaped manner, declining and rebounding.
3) The reflationary pressures from 1) and 2) were reinforced by the macro backdrop of a more dovish Fed worried about Chinese growth and commodity producers which weakened the US dollar and reinforced a stronger China and higher commodity prices. With the global economy on more solid footing, we believe the risks are that these reflationary ‘macro’ stimuli from a more dovish Fed and China are reversed in coming months (potentially flagged by the Fed as soon as next week’s FOMC meeting).
However, we acknowledge that the larger-than-expected China stimulus could support steel intensive infrastructure developments through the remainder of the second quarter. Further, in our view, the rise in prices engenders the risk of a premature supply response, particularly in steel, aluminum and zinc where Chinese margins have improved materially.
In base metals, we do not believe we have seen the lows yet in this cycle.
We leave it to Tiger Shi, a managing partner at Bands Financial Ltd in Hong Kong to conclude:
“The market is moving so quickly, yesterday felt just like the stock market in June last year before the crash... I think how it goes up, that’s how it will come down"
The Volkswagen Car "Buy Back" Just Unleashed Havoc On The U.S. Car Market
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 17:12
Offering hundreds of thousands of buyers a chance to sell back their old VW or end their lease early (in lieu of fixing the car) will almost certainly flood the used-car market that is already on pace to hit record inventory levels in 2016.
Halliburton Fires One Third Of Global Staff: "What We Are Experiencing Today Is Unsustainable"
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 17:25
In a brutally frank and painfully honest first quarter operational update, Halliburton president Jeff Miller poured freezing cold water all over the "oil is stabilizing, and everything is going to be awesome" narrative. After explaining that the firm has laid off one-third of its global employees, and pointing to the collapse in sequential revenues across every business unit, Miller exclaimed: "What we are experiencing today is far beyond headwinds; it is unsustainable."
The SPV Loophole: Draghi Just Unleashed "QE For The Entire World"... And May Have Bailed Out US Shale
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 17:38
"The ECB stands ready to buy bonds from Euro Area issuers even when their parent companies are outside of the bloc. Already we can find a number of US, UK and Swiss headquartered names that issue out of SPVs incorporated in the Euro Area. If this trend to SPV issuance catches on, then the ECB’s policies will likely be very reflationary for all credit markets across the globe, and because of a likely refinancing wave – equity markets too."
Weather Channel Founder Slams Global Warming: "The Theory Has Failed"
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 17:40
"As a skeptic of man-made global warming, I love our environment as much as anyone. I share the deepest commitment to protecting our planet for our children and grandchildren. However, I desperately want to get politics out of the climate debate. The Paris climate agreement is all about empowering the U.N. and has nothing to do with the climate."
"A Scramble For Gold Has Begun"
Tyler D.
04/22/2016 19:00 -0400
Authored by James Rickards
For a century, elites have worked to eliminate monetary gold, both physically and ideologically.
This began in 1914, with the UK’s entry into the First World War. The Bank of England wanted to suspend convertibility of bank notes into gold. Keynes counselled wisely that the bank should not do so. Gold was finite, but credit elastic.
By staying on gold, the UK could maintain its credit, and finance the war effort. This transpired. The House of Morgan organised massive credits for the UK, and none for Germany. This finance was crucial, and sustained the UK until the US abandoned neutrality and tipped the military balance against Germany.
Despite formal convertibility of sterling to gold, the Bank of England successfully discouraged actual conversion.
Gold sovereigns were withdrawn from circulation and turned into 400-ounce bars. This form of bullion limited gold ownership to the wealthy, and confined gold’s presence to vaults. A similar disappearance of gold as a circulating currency occurred in the US.
The price of gold has jumped in recent years Credit: London Metal Exchange
In 1933, US President Franklin Roosevelt issued an executive order making ownership of gold a crime. FDR relied on the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917 as statutory authority for this edict. Since the US was not at war in 1933, the enemy was presumably the American people.
In 1971, US President Richard Nixon ended convertibility of US dollars into gold by trading partners of the US. Closing the gold window was said by Nixon to be temporary. Forty-five years later the window is still closed.
In 1973, the G7 nations, and the IMF demonetised gold. IMF members were no longer required to hold gold reserves. Gold was now just another commodity. The view of the monetary elites was that gold was dead.
Yet, like Banquo’s ghost, gold insists on its seat at the monetary table. The US holds 8,133 tonnes of gold. The members of the eurozone and ECB hold 10,788 tonnes. China reports holdings of 1,788 tonnes, but actual holdings are closer to 4,000 tonnes, based on reliable data from Hong Kong exports and Chinese mining.
Russia has 1,447 tonnes, and has been acquiring over 200 tonnes per year. Mexico, Kazakhstan, and Vietnam, among other nations, have added to their gold reserves recently. (Pity the UK, which sold more than half its gold at rock- bottom prices between 1999 and 2002).
After decades as net sellers of gold, central banks became net buyers in 2010. A scramble for gold has begun.
What drives gold’s new allure? In some cases, central banks are constructing a hedge against US dollar inflation.
China has $3.2 trillion in reserves, over half of which is denominated in US dollars, mostly US Treasury notes. The dollar has no greater friend than China because its wealth is held in dollars. Still, inflation looms. China cannot dump its Treasury notes; the Treasury market is deep, but not that deep.
If Chinese selling of Treasuries became a threat to US interests, a US president could freeze Chinese accounts with a phone call.
The Chinese know this. They are stuck with their dollars. They fear, rightly, that the US will inflate its way out of its $19 trillion mountain of debt.
China’s solution is to buy gold. If dollar inflation emerges, China’s Treasury holdings will devalue, but the dollar price of its gold will soar. A large gold reserve is a prudent diversification. Russia’s motives are geopolitical. Gold is the model 21st century weapon for financial wars.
The US controls dollar payments systems and, with help from European allies, can eject adversaries from the international payments system called Swift. Gold is immune to such assaults. Physical gold in your custody cannot be hacked, erased, or frozen. Moving gold is a simple way for Russia to settle accounts without US interference.
Countries are also acquiring gold in advance of a collapse of the international monetary system. The system has collapsed three times in the past century. Each time, major financial powers came together to write new rules.
This happened at Genoa in 1922, Bretton Woods in 1944, and the Smithsonian Institution in 1971. The international monetary system has a shelf life of about 30 years.
It has been 30 years since the Louvre Accord (an upgrade to the Smithsonian Agreement). This does not mean the system will collapse tomorrow, but no one should be surprised if it does. When the financial powers next convene to reform the system, there will be no appetite for the dollar’s exorbitant privilege.
The Chinese yuan and Russia ruble are not true reserve currencies. The only feasible benchmarks for a new system are the IMF’s world money, called special drawing rights, and gold.
Critics claim there is not enough gold to support the financial system. That’s nonsense. There is always enough gold, it’s just a matter of price.
Based on the M1 money supplies of China, the eurozone, and the US, and with 40pc gold backing, the implied non-deflationary price of gold is $10,000 per ounce.
At that price, a stable gold-backed monetary system could be sustained. When it comes to monetary elites, watch what they do, not what they say.
While elites disparage gold at every opportunity, they are buying it, hoarding it, and preparing for the day when one’s gold determines one’s seat at the table of systemic reform.
It’s past time to claim your seat with an asset allocation to physical gold.
Tyler D.
04/22/2016 16:50 -0400
"The market is moving so quickly, yesterday felt just like the stock market in June last year before the crash," warns one Asian trader reflecting on the chaotic rush of Chinese speculators into the industrial metals commodities market Echoing the frenzy that fueled China's parabolic stock market rise (and subsequent collapse), Bloomberg notes one local China broker admits "we’ve seen a lot of people opening accounts for commodities futures recently," adding rather ominously, "the great ball of China money is moving away from bonds and stocks to commodities." The spikes in everything from rebar to iron ore, however, according to Goldman "is not driven by a sustainable shift in fundamentals."
Industrial metals up over 50% year-to-date, amid plunging exports and domestic zombie revival...
Since Dec 23rd 2015 when the US imposed a 256% tariff on Chinese steel imports, composite steel prices have soared almost 50% even as exports have slipped...
Trading in futures on everything from steel reinforcement bars and hot-rolled coils to cotton and polyvinyl chloride has soared this week, prompting exchanges in Shanghai, Dalian and Zhengzhou to boost fees or issue warnings to investors.
Deutsche Bank details the total crazinesss...
The onshore China commodity markets this week traded (conservatively) $350bn notional, a 17x increase on the $20bn notional that traded on Feb 1st 2016 i.e. a month ago (is it coincidence that the notional is about the same as at the peak of the equity frenzy?).
My calculations are pretty basic; I've trawled the screens and chosen 32 commodities in agri, metals and coke/coal and done a quick (contracts x value)/CNY for a dollar amount. I have not used the largest day's volume either (e.g. Deformed Bar, RBTA has traded close to $100bn, but I used closer to $60bn). Cotton (VVA Comdty) has been trading $15bn, up from $500mm in Feb. In the US, the long established cotton contract (CT1 Comdty) trades $600mm. China listed Sugar (CBA Comdty) has traded $14bn versus the US listed sugar beet at $850mm.
What this looks like!!
How much impact is this having on global markets? At first, very little. Many of the China listed futures started to bottom and rally in Nov and Dec last year, with very little relationship to global peers. This very crude chart below is a simple aggregation of all the prices of the 32 commods that I could find, but many of the underlying constituents are exactly the same. The performance looks inversely correlated with the performance of the underlying economy (and demand) but nicely related to the injection of credit.
In recent sessions, some of the US based commods have started to squeeze higher, presumably because the dog and the tail are changing places (clearly these are not apples-for-apples, as it were, in terms of contracts).
There is no correlation between the explosion in interest in Chinese commodity futures and any Chinese economic activity (and it should be a reminder to all who gaze lovingly at the commodity charts of the last decade that credit, rather than true demand, can be the most influential factor in financial markets). Volumes have increased 17 fold in a month. The economy has not. This is simply another speculative excess that will probably (already has) run way beyond fundamentals. It is probably creating a false picture of global demand for commodity stocks of all types, which themselves have rallied far beyond their earnings potential.
Eventually, the excesses will need to be curbed and maybe that starts a new phase of risk-off within China. As Bloomberg reports,
While the underlying products may be anything but glamorous, the numbers are eye-popping: contracts on more than 223 million metric tons of rebar changed hands on Thursday, more than China’s full-year production of the material used to strengthen concrete.
The frenzy echoes the activity that fueled China’s stock market last year before a rout erased $5 trillion, and follows earlier bubbles in property to garlic and even certain types of tea. China’s army of investors is honing in on raw materials amid signs of a pickup in demand and as the nation’s equities fall the most among global markets and corporate bond yields head for the steepest monthly rise in more than a year.
Hao Hong, chief China strategist at Bocom International Holdings Co. in Hong Kong, says the improvement in fundamentals and the availability of leverage to bet on commodities is making them irresistible to traders.
“These guys are going nuts," Hong said. “Leverage exaggerates the move of the way up, but also on the way down - much like what margin financing did to stocks in 2015.”
To cool activity, as we warned yesterrday, the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased transaction fees while the Dalian Commodity Exchange raised iron ore margin requirements. The bourse in Dalian also tightened rules on what it called abnormal trading, which now includes frequent submission and withdrawal of orders and self-trading. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange urged prudent investment on cotton futures amid "relatively large price fluctuations."
“There’s a lot of liquidity and there are people looking for opportunity," said Ben Kwong, a director at brokerage KGI Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Investors are just boosted by recent rebound in those commodity prices and it’s speculative behavior."
Goldman agrees, warning that "we believe that it is not yet driven by a sustainable shift in fundamentals..."
The sentiment in commodity markets has clearly shifted towards being more bullish. With steel rebar leading the charge following robust Chinese credit data and oil trading to the top end of our inflection phase trading range of $45/$25 , this leaves the most important question of whether this is the beginning of a sustainable, broad-based commodity rally that marks the end of the inflection phase. While this recent rally has the potential to run further to the upside, with the biggest risk that the Fed chooses not to hike in the coming months despite improving Chinese activity, we believe that it is not yet driven by a sustainable shift in fundamentals. In oil, we do not anticipate a sustainable shift in fundamentals until 3Q16, which creates near-term downside risks. Specifically:
1) The rally has been far stronger in the oil and steel complexes, commodity sectors that have seen near-term, transient, supply adjustments. While these adjustments deal with near-term surpluses through oil supply disruptions and excessive de-stocking in ferrous complex (see Exhibit 2), they do not address the longer-term supply problems of excess capacity in the oil and metals sectors, in our view. Specifically, we believe the current decline in US oil production is still insufficient to offset low-cost supply growth such as Iran, particularly should disruptions in Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela reverse.
2) The steel complex also benefits from a high level of exposure to the credit-led pick up in Chinese infrastructure activity, which was put in place by Chinese policy makers to contain fears over systemic risks earlier this year that have passed. Outside of commodity demand exposed to Chinese infrastructure, actual demand for commodities didn’t change that much over this time period, only expectations behaved in a V-shaped manner, declining and rebounding.
3) The reflationary pressures from 1) and 2) were reinforced by the macro backdrop of a more dovish Fed worried about Chinese growth and commodity producers which weakened the US dollar and reinforced a stronger China and higher commodity prices. With the global economy on more solid footing, we believe the risks are that these reflationary ‘macro’ stimuli from a more dovish Fed and China are reversed in coming months (potentially flagged by the Fed as soon as next week’s FOMC meeting).
However, we acknowledge that the larger-than-expected China stimulus could support steel intensive infrastructure developments through the remainder of the second quarter. Further, in our view, the rise in prices engenders the risk of a premature supply response, particularly in steel, aluminum and zinc where Chinese margins have improved materially.
In base metals, we do not believe we have seen the lows yet in this cycle.
We leave it to Tiger Shi, a managing partner at Bands Financial Ltd in Hong Kong to conclude:
“The market is moving so quickly, yesterday felt just like the stock market in June last year before the crash... I think how it goes up, that’s how it will come down"
The Volkswagen Car "Buy Back" Just Unleashed Havoc On The U.S. Car Market
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 17:12
Offering hundreds of thousands of buyers a chance to sell back their old VW or end their lease early (in lieu of fixing the car) will almost certainly flood the used-car market that is already on pace to hit record inventory levels in 2016.
Halliburton Fires One Third Of Global Staff: "What We Are Experiencing Today Is Unsustainable"
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 17:25
In a brutally frank and painfully honest first quarter operational update, Halliburton president Jeff Miller poured freezing cold water all over the "oil is stabilizing, and everything is going to be awesome" narrative. After explaining that the firm has laid off one-third of its global employees, and pointing to the collapse in sequential revenues across every business unit, Miller exclaimed: "What we are experiencing today is far beyond headwinds; it is unsustainable."
The SPV Loophole: Draghi Just Unleashed "QE For The Entire World"... And May Have Bailed Out US Shale
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 17:38
"The ECB stands ready to buy bonds from Euro Area issuers even when their parent companies are outside of the bloc. Already we can find a number of US, UK and Swiss headquartered names that issue out of SPVs incorporated in the Euro Area. If this trend to SPV issuance catches on, then the ECB’s policies will likely be very reflationary for all credit markets across the globe, and because of a likely refinancing wave – equity markets too."
Weather Channel Founder Slams Global Warming: "The Theory Has Failed"
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 17:40
"As a skeptic of man-made global warming, I love our environment as much as anyone. I share the deepest commitment to protecting our planet for our children and grandchildren. However, I desperately want to get politics out of the climate debate. The Paris climate agreement is all about empowering the U.N. and has nothing to do with the climate."
"A Scramble For Gold Has Begun"
Tyler D.
04/22/2016 19:00 -0400
Authored by James Rickards
For a century, elites have worked to eliminate monetary gold, both physically and ideologically.
This began in 1914, with the UK’s entry into the First World War. The Bank of England wanted to suspend convertibility of bank notes into gold. Keynes counselled wisely that the bank should not do so. Gold was finite, but credit elastic.
By staying on gold, the UK could maintain its credit, and finance the war effort. This transpired. The House of Morgan organised massive credits for the UK, and none for Germany. This finance was crucial, and sustained the UK until the US abandoned neutrality and tipped the military balance against Germany.
Despite formal convertibility of sterling to gold, the Bank of England successfully discouraged actual conversion.
Gold sovereigns were withdrawn from circulation and turned into 400-ounce bars. This form of bullion limited gold ownership to the wealthy, and confined gold’s presence to vaults. A similar disappearance of gold as a circulating currency occurred in the US.
The price of gold has jumped in recent years Credit: London Metal Exchange
In 1933, US President Franklin Roosevelt issued an executive order making ownership of gold a crime. FDR relied on the Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917 as statutory authority for this edict. Since the US was not at war in 1933, the enemy was presumably the American people.
In 1971, US President Richard Nixon ended convertibility of US dollars into gold by trading partners of the US. Closing the gold window was said by Nixon to be temporary. Forty-five years later the window is still closed.
In 1973, the G7 nations, and the IMF demonetised gold. IMF members were no longer required to hold gold reserves. Gold was now just another commodity. The view of the monetary elites was that gold was dead.
Yet, like Banquo’s ghost, gold insists on its seat at the monetary table. The US holds 8,133 tonnes of gold. The members of the eurozone and ECB hold 10,788 tonnes. China reports holdings of 1,788 tonnes, but actual holdings are closer to 4,000 tonnes, based on reliable data from Hong Kong exports and Chinese mining.
Russia has 1,447 tonnes, and has been acquiring over 200 tonnes per year. Mexico, Kazakhstan, and Vietnam, among other nations, have added to their gold reserves recently. (Pity the UK, which sold more than half its gold at rock- bottom prices between 1999 and 2002).
After decades as net sellers of gold, central banks became net buyers in 2010. A scramble for gold has begun.
What drives gold’s new allure? In some cases, central banks are constructing a hedge against US dollar inflation.
China has $3.2 trillion in reserves, over half of which is denominated in US dollars, mostly US Treasury notes. The dollar has no greater friend than China because its wealth is held in dollars. Still, inflation looms. China cannot dump its Treasury notes; the Treasury market is deep, but not that deep.
If Chinese selling of Treasuries became a threat to US interests, a US president could freeze Chinese accounts with a phone call.
The Chinese know this. They are stuck with their dollars. They fear, rightly, that the US will inflate its way out of its $19 trillion mountain of debt.
China’s solution is to buy gold. If dollar inflation emerges, China’s Treasury holdings will devalue, but the dollar price of its gold will soar. A large gold reserve is a prudent diversification. Russia’s motives are geopolitical. Gold is the model 21st century weapon for financial wars.
The US controls dollar payments systems and, with help from European allies, can eject adversaries from the international payments system called Swift. Gold is immune to such assaults. Physical gold in your custody cannot be hacked, erased, or frozen. Moving gold is a simple way for Russia to settle accounts without US interference.
Countries are also acquiring gold in advance of a collapse of the international monetary system. The system has collapsed three times in the past century. Each time, major financial powers came together to write new rules.
This happened at Genoa in 1922, Bretton Woods in 1944, and the Smithsonian Institution in 1971. The international monetary system has a shelf life of about 30 years.
It has been 30 years since the Louvre Accord (an upgrade to the Smithsonian Agreement). This does not mean the system will collapse tomorrow, but no one should be surprised if it does. When the financial powers next convene to reform the system, there will be no appetite for the dollar’s exorbitant privilege.
The Chinese yuan and Russia ruble are not true reserve currencies. The only feasible benchmarks for a new system are the IMF’s world money, called special drawing rights, and gold.
Critics claim there is not enough gold to support the financial system. That’s nonsense. There is always enough gold, it’s just a matter of price.
Based on the M1 money supplies of China, the eurozone, and the US, and with 40pc gold backing, the implied non-deflationary price of gold is $10,000 per ounce.
At that price, a stable gold-backed monetary system could be sustained. When it comes to monetary elites, watch what they do, not what they say.
While elites disparage gold at every opportunity, they are buying it, hoarding it, and preparing for the day when one’s gold determines one’s seat at the table of systemic reform.
It’s past time to claim your seat with an asset allocation to physical gold.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 22/04/16 PMI manufacturero
por Fenix » Vie Abr 22, 2016 6:46 pm
Gundlach Predicts "Trump Will Win", Says "The Federal Reserve Has Basically Given Up"
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 13:42
"The US stock market seems egregiously overvalued versus other stock markets... you are going to see declines in the US stock market and since the correlations are so high this means that probably the junk bond market will go back down, too. Negative interest rates are the dumbest idea ever. It’s horrible.... Gold is doing fine. It’s preserving capital in the US, it’s been making money over the last couple of years for European investors. That’s why I own gold.... Trump is going to win. I think Clinton and Sanders are both very poor candidates."
Silver & Gold – DB Turns State’s Evidence, The Flood Gates Are Now Open!
Sprott Money's picture
04/22/2016 05:58 -0400
Craig Hemke: Silver & Gold – DB Turns State’s Evidence, The Flood Gates Are Now Open!
Posted with permission and written by Rory Hall
Craig Hemke: Silver & Gold – DB Turns State’s Evidence, The Flood Gates Are Now Open! - The Daily Coin
The tinfoil hatters have once again prevailed. What has been called theory turns to fact, once again. It seems the people, citizen journalist, market analyst and financial advisors, that actually do the necessary research and present an alternative view are being vindicated on an almost daily basis. All of the naysayers will now have to put down the kool-aid and take another look at what is being reported on the internet. While there are equal amounts of garbage to offset the truly great information, isn’t it the same with mainstream media? Is there any difference in what we see on TeeVee or hear on the radio – equal parts garbage balanced with great information?
With the revelation of Duetsche Bank (DB) admitting, in a court of law, their bank has been manipulating both silver and gold markets for several years. This is one of the biggest stories of our life time and the mainstream media is completely mute on this subject. It goes right to the heart of the opening paragraph. Why would the mainstream media be completely silent on this topic?
Craig Hemke, TFMetals Report, has been following, analyzing and reporting on these rigged markets for close to a decade. His tireless efforts and painstaking determination has shown time and again the blatant criminality in the precious metals markets. While he has learned their movements, and put this information to work for himself, and the Turdites, to turn a handsome profit, it does not take away from the criminality.
Oh, and as you will hear, this was recorded on Friday April 15, 2016 Craig said the “flood gate of lawsuits was now open” for class-action lawsuits and on Saturday April 16, 2016 it was confirmed with not one, but two different lawsuits. You think these law firms have been waiting for this to happen or were they able to get everything together in less than 24 hours?
Billion Dollar Lawsuits Filed Following Deutsche Bank’s Admission Of Gold, Silver Rigging
Overnight, two class action lawsuits seeking $1 billion in damages on behalf of Canadian gold and silver investors were launched in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice.
I spoke with Craig about the situation with DB and the implications for the markets and our world.
Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE
Craig Hemke: Silver & Gold – DB Turns State’s Evidence, The Flood Gates Are Now Open!
Posted with permission and written by Rory Hall, The Daily Coin (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)
Rory Hall, Editor-in-Chief of The Daily Coin, has written over 700 articles and produced more than 200 videos about the precious metals market, economic and monetary policies as well as geopolitical events since 1987. His articles have been published by Zerohedge, SHTFPlan, Sprott Money, GoldSilver and Silver Doctors, SGTReport, just to name a few. Rory has contributed daily to SGTReport since 2012. He has interviewed experts such as Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Dr. Marc Faber, Eric Sprott, Gerald Celente and Peter Schiff, to name but a few. Visit The Daily Coin website and The Daily Coin YouTube channels to enjoy original and some of the best economic, precious metals, geopolitical and preparedness news from around the world.
Submitted by Tyler D.
04/22/2016 - 13:42
"The US stock market seems egregiously overvalued versus other stock markets... you are going to see declines in the US stock market and since the correlations are so high this means that probably the junk bond market will go back down, too. Negative interest rates are the dumbest idea ever. It’s horrible.... Gold is doing fine. It’s preserving capital in the US, it’s been making money over the last couple of years for European investors. That’s why I own gold.... Trump is going to win. I think Clinton and Sanders are both very poor candidates."
Silver & Gold – DB Turns State’s Evidence, The Flood Gates Are Now Open!
Sprott Money's picture
04/22/2016 05:58 -0400
Craig Hemke: Silver & Gold – DB Turns State’s Evidence, The Flood Gates Are Now Open!
Posted with permission and written by Rory Hall
Craig Hemke: Silver & Gold – DB Turns State’s Evidence, The Flood Gates Are Now Open! - The Daily Coin
The tinfoil hatters have once again prevailed. What has been called theory turns to fact, once again. It seems the people, citizen journalist, market analyst and financial advisors, that actually do the necessary research and present an alternative view are being vindicated on an almost daily basis. All of the naysayers will now have to put down the kool-aid and take another look at what is being reported on the internet. While there are equal amounts of garbage to offset the truly great information, isn’t it the same with mainstream media? Is there any difference in what we see on TeeVee or hear on the radio – equal parts garbage balanced with great information?
With the revelation of Duetsche Bank (DB) admitting, in a court of law, their bank has been manipulating both silver and gold markets for several years. This is one of the biggest stories of our life time and the mainstream media is completely mute on this subject. It goes right to the heart of the opening paragraph. Why would the mainstream media be completely silent on this topic?
Craig Hemke, TFMetals Report, has been following, analyzing and reporting on these rigged markets for close to a decade. His tireless efforts and painstaking determination has shown time and again the blatant criminality in the precious metals markets. While he has learned their movements, and put this information to work for himself, and the Turdites, to turn a handsome profit, it does not take away from the criminality.
Oh, and as you will hear, this was recorded on Friday April 15, 2016 Craig said the “flood gate of lawsuits was now open” for class-action lawsuits and on Saturday April 16, 2016 it was confirmed with not one, but two different lawsuits. You think these law firms have been waiting for this to happen or were they able to get everything together in less than 24 hours?
Billion Dollar Lawsuits Filed Following Deutsche Bank’s Admission Of Gold, Silver Rigging
Overnight, two class action lawsuits seeking $1 billion in damages on behalf of Canadian gold and silver investors were launched in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice.
I spoke with Craig about the situation with DB and the implications for the markets and our world.
Please email with any questions about this article or precious metals HERE
Craig Hemke: Silver & Gold – DB Turns State’s Evidence, The Flood Gates Are Now Open!
Posted with permission and written by Rory Hall, The Daily Coin (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)
Rory Hall, Editor-in-Chief of The Daily Coin, has written over 700 articles and produced more than 200 videos about the precious metals market, economic and monetary policies as well as geopolitical events since 1987. His articles have been published by Zerohedge, SHTFPlan, Sprott Money, GoldSilver and Silver Doctors, SGTReport, just to name a few. Rory has contributed daily to SGTReport since 2012. He has interviewed experts such as Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Dr. Marc Faber, Eric Sprott, Gerald Celente and Peter Schiff, to name but a few. Visit The Daily Coin website and The Daily Coin YouTube channels to enjoy original and some of the best economic, precious metals, geopolitical and preparedness news from around the world.
- Fenix
- Mensajes: 16334
- Registrado: Vie Abr 23, 2010 2:36 am
Re: Viernes 22/04/16 PMI manufacturero
por admin » Vie Abr 22, 2016 9:19 pm
Él gobierno de Obama abandona la demanda contra AAPL, logran accesar los datos del iPhone de los terroristas.
- admin
- Site Admin
- Mensajes: 164292
- Registrado: Mié Abr 21, 2010 9:02 pm
Re: Viernes 22/04/16 PMI manufacturero
por admin » Sab Abr 23, 2016 5:21 am
Cinco preguntas sobre el Fondo de Estabilización Fiscal (FEF)
Cinco preguntas sobre el Fondo de Estabilización Fiscal (FEF)
En la campaña presidencial el tema del Fondo de Estabilización Fiscal (FEF) entró en la agenda porque algunos candidatos propusieron utilizarlo para realizar un "shock" de inversiones en infraestructura. ¿A cuánto asciende el fondo? ¿Es una buena opción usarla para elevar la inversión pública?
En ese sentido, El Comercio conversó con Juan Mendoza, economista de la Universidad del Pacífico, Andrés Remezzano, docente de Administración y Finanzas de la UPC, y . Javier Masías Astengo, docente de Economía de la Universidad Privada del Norte (UPN), para responder cinco grandes interrogantes.
¿Qué es el Fondo de Estabilización Fiscal y en qué ocasiones el Gobierno peruano lo puede utilizar?
El Fondo de Estabilización Fiscal (FEF) está adscrito al MEF y es administrado por un directorio, compuesto por tres miembros. El Directorio del FEF estará presidido por el Ministro de Economía y Finanzas e integrado por el presidente del BCR y por un representante designado por la PCM.
El objetivo es que las cuentas fiscales tengan un colchón de reserva ante ciclos económicos adversos. Puede utilizarse por ejemplo en años donde la recaudación cae pero los compromisos del estado se mantienen constantes y en casos extraordinarios de emergencia nacional (terremotos, maremotos, etc) o de crisis internacional que puedan afectar sustancialmente la economía nacional
El saldo del fondo a fines del 2014 era de US$9,159 millones y a fines del año 2015, bajó a US$7,902 millones. El año pasado el MEF autorizó el uso de US$1271 millones del FEF. “El fondo se viene utilizando a partir de diciembre del año pasado pues, a diferencia de lo que ocurría hasta el 2013, el país tiene déficit fiscal”, indicó Mendoza.
¿De dónde provienen los ingresos del Fondo de Estabilización Fiscal (FEF)?
Los ingresos están señalados en el Artículo 12 de la Ley Nº 30099 y son:
► El saldo presupuestal positivo de libre disponibilidad de Tesoro Público, obtenido al final de cada año fiscal, en la fuente de financiamiento Recursos Ordinarios. Durante el año 2015, no se registraron ingresos por esta fuente.
► El 10% de los ingresos líquidos de las operaciones de venta de activos por privatizaciones. Durante el año 2015, no se registraron ingresos por esta fuente.
► El 10% de los ingresos líquidos del pago inicial por concesiones del Estado. Durante el año 2015, se transfirieron US$ 3.15 millones por concepto de concesiones (Hotel de Machu Picchu, proyecto minero Toromocho, proyecto especial Chinecas, proyecto minero Las Bambas, proyecto minero Michiquillay, proyecto minero La Granja, proyecto minero Salmueras).
► Intereses por los depósitos a plazo del FEF en el BCRP. Por concepto de intereses los depósitos a plazo del FEF en el BCRP, generaron US$ 11.23 millones.
¿Cuáles son las diferencias que tiene con las Reservas Internacionales Netas (RIN)?
Las reservas internacionales son reservas que tiene el Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) y su objetivo principal es respaldar los billetes/soles que hay en circulación en la economía peruana.
En el período electoral, varios candidatos –entre ellos Keiko Fujimori- han señalado que prevén utilizar el FEF para fomentar la inversión en infraestructura. ¿El uso del FEF requiere el permiso de la PCM o el MEF?
El FEF es administrado por un cuerpo colegiado donde participan el MEF, el BCRP y la PCM. Ellos deciden. En ese sentido, si el próximo Gobierno quiere utilizar este fondo no tendría mayor inconveniente, a excepción que el presidente del BCR –una entidad autónoma- se oponga.
El ministro Alonso Segura ha señalado que el FEF representa en estos momentos el 4,1% del PBI. ¿Considera que la propuesta de algunos candidatos para su uso en obras de infraestructura debe darse?
El economista de la UPC dice que si efectivamente es utilizado para infraestructura sería una medida adecuada, aunque podría significar un riesgo “Perú tiene un alto déficit de infraestructura, pero por otro lado, tiene guardado un gran FEF que no se utiliza. En políticas públicas, hay siempre un riesgo en el cual las políticas transitorias se convierten en algo permanente”, sostuvo.
Remezzano dijo que existe un alto riesgo que el uso del FEF, que originalmente se plantea para obras de infraestructura, se diluya en gasto corriente y no cumpla el objetivo de tener un impacto de largo plazo. “Si se logra controlar muy bien que el uso final del FEF sea infraestructura, tiene todo el sentido económico que se utilice”, advirtió.
En tanto, Juan Mendoza, de la UP, fue enfático en considera que sería un grave error destinar el FEF para un shock de infraestructura e incrementar la inversión pública. “El fondo está diseñado para atender emergencias macroeconómicas. Si se utilizara el fondo para incrementar transitoriamente la inversión pública el país perdería la protección que tiene frente a eventuales emergencias macroeconómicas”, precisó.
Cinco preguntas sobre el Fondo de Estabilización Fiscal (FEF)
En la campaña presidencial el tema del Fondo de Estabilización Fiscal (FEF) entró en la agenda porque algunos candidatos propusieron utilizarlo para realizar un "shock" de inversiones en infraestructura. ¿A cuánto asciende el fondo? ¿Es una buena opción usarla para elevar la inversión pública?
En ese sentido, El Comercio conversó con Juan Mendoza, economista de la Universidad del Pacífico, Andrés Remezzano, docente de Administración y Finanzas de la UPC, y . Javier Masías Astengo, docente de Economía de la Universidad Privada del Norte (UPN), para responder cinco grandes interrogantes.
¿Qué es el Fondo de Estabilización Fiscal y en qué ocasiones el Gobierno peruano lo puede utilizar?
El Fondo de Estabilización Fiscal (FEF) está adscrito al MEF y es administrado por un directorio, compuesto por tres miembros. El Directorio del FEF estará presidido por el Ministro de Economía y Finanzas e integrado por el presidente del BCR y por un representante designado por la PCM.
El objetivo es que las cuentas fiscales tengan un colchón de reserva ante ciclos económicos adversos. Puede utilizarse por ejemplo en años donde la recaudación cae pero los compromisos del estado se mantienen constantes y en casos extraordinarios de emergencia nacional (terremotos, maremotos, etc) o de crisis internacional que puedan afectar sustancialmente la economía nacional
El saldo del fondo a fines del 2014 era de US$9,159 millones y a fines del año 2015, bajó a US$7,902 millones. El año pasado el MEF autorizó el uso de US$1271 millones del FEF. “El fondo se viene utilizando a partir de diciembre del año pasado pues, a diferencia de lo que ocurría hasta el 2013, el país tiene déficit fiscal”, indicó Mendoza.
¿De dónde provienen los ingresos del Fondo de Estabilización Fiscal (FEF)?
Los ingresos están señalados en el Artículo 12 de la Ley Nº 30099 y son:
► El saldo presupuestal positivo de libre disponibilidad de Tesoro Público, obtenido al final de cada año fiscal, en la fuente de financiamiento Recursos Ordinarios. Durante el año 2015, no se registraron ingresos por esta fuente.
► El 10% de los ingresos líquidos de las operaciones de venta de activos por privatizaciones. Durante el año 2015, no se registraron ingresos por esta fuente.
► El 10% de los ingresos líquidos del pago inicial por concesiones del Estado. Durante el año 2015, se transfirieron US$ 3.15 millones por concepto de concesiones (Hotel de Machu Picchu, proyecto minero Toromocho, proyecto especial Chinecas, proyecto minero Las Bambas, proyecto minero Michiquillay, proyecto minero La Granja, proyecto minero Salmueras).
► Intereses por los depósitos a plazo del FEF en el BCRP. Por concepto de intereses los depósitos a plazo del FEF en el BCRP, generaron US$ 11.23 millones.
¿Cuáles son las diferencias que tiene con las Reservas Internacionales Netas (RIN)?
Las reservas internacionales son reservas que tiene el Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) y su objetivo principal es respaldar los billetes/soles que hay en circulación en la economía peruana.
En el período electoral, varios candidatos –entre ellos Keiko Fujimori- han señalado que prevén utilizar el FEF para fomentar la inversión en infraestructura. ¿El uso del FEF requiere el permiso de la PCM o el MEF?
El FEF es administrado por un cuerpo colegiado donde participan el MEF, el BCRP y la PCM. Ellos deciden. En ese sentido, si el próximo Gobierno quiere utilizar este fondo no tendría mayor inconveniente, a excepción que el presidente del BCR –una entidad autónoma- se oponga.
El ministro Alonso Segura ha señalado que el FEF representa en estos momentos el 4,1% del PBI. ¿Considera que la propuesta de algunos candidatos para su uso en obras de infraestructura debe darse?
El economista de la UPC dice que si efectivamente es utilizado para infraestructura sería una medida adecuada, aunque podría significar un riesgo “Perú tiene un alto déficit de infraestructura, pero por otro lado, tiene guardado un gran FEF que no se utiliza. En políticas públicas, hay siempre un riesgo en el cual las políticas transitorias se convierten en algo permanente”, sostuvo.
Remezzano dijo que existe un alto riesgo que el uso del FEF, que originalmente se plantea para obras de infraestructura, se diluya en gasto corriente y no cumpla el objetivo de tener un impacto de largo plazo. “Si se logra controlar muy bien que el uso final del FEF sea infraestructura, tiene todo el sentido económico que se utilice”, advirtió.
En tanto, Juan Mendoza, de la UP, fue enfático en considera que sería un grave error destinar el FEF para un shock de infraestructura e incrementar la inversión pública. “El fondo está diseñado para atender emergencias macroeconómicas. Si se utilizara el fondo para incrementar transitoriamente la inversión pública el país perdería la protección que tiene frente a eventuales emergencias macroeconómicas”, precisó.
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